politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great news for IN from ICM phone survey and for OUT from IC

ICM's two referendum polls after excluding DKs
PHONE IN 55% OUT 45%
ONLINE IN 48% OUT 52%
Comments
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What fun eh.0
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I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
What's the bloody point of having cake and not eating it?Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
But in all seriousness, I think they are doing it to see which mode is best, if one is clearly more successful than the other, we might see the end of either phone polls or online polls.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
JICIPM0
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All as clear as mud...but then as Dave Gorman showed about YougGov panels reactions to Ant and Dec, showing wildly different political views of fans of one or the other...polling companies have some serious issues.0
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Pick the bones out of that.
Is it an effect caused by more politically engaged online panels or by the relatively high non-response rate for telephone surveys? I guess we'll find out in a month or so.0 -
I doubt it will be as clear cut as that.TheScreamingEagles said:
But in all seriousness, I think they are doing it to see which mode is best, if one is clearly more successful than the other, we might see the end of either phone polls or online polls.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
The amusing thing is Dominic Cummings was using ICM for Vote Leave's private polling, if they still are, are they using phone polls or online polls.0
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One for in, one for out and a thread to shake it all about.
FPT: It looks MoE to me, which is interesting by itself given the amount of eggs and chips being flung around.
I stand by what I said over the weekend - a true Remain lead of 6-8%.
I'd still my view that what the mass of floating voters in the U.K. want is the closest possible Remain result - ideally, 51-49% - and will try and conspire to get such a result, which may will miraculously materialise through psephological osmosis.
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You know that "quirky" ex-comedian that the Guardian / BBC axis were fawning over a few years ago...
Beppe Grillo said he couldn't wait to see the new Muslim mayor of London 'blow himself up at Westminster' during a televised event in Padua on Saturday.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3592778/Italian-politician-says-t-wait-new-Muslim-mayor-London-blows-Westminster-following-Sadiq-Khan-s-election-victory.html
Hilarious.....0 -
It's only rock and poll but I like it.0
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I really do miss being phone polled.
Prior to May 2015 every pollster wanted to speak to me, but since then, nada.0 -
One thing which is clear is that these polls don't show more than MoE movement.0
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Would an ICM waterboarding poll give the true picture? Probably too expensive.0
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I don't think Cummings would have posted a tweet like that over the weekend if his private polls showed Leave were on course for a win.TheScreamingEagles said:The amusing thing is Dominic Cummings was using ICM for Vote Leave's private polling, if they still are, are they using phone polls or online polls.
Unless he was double-bluffing..0 -
@MattSingh_: Phone-online gap in ICM's parallel test is 12points, +3 vs April. Too soon to say the wedge has widened, but watch this week's polls closely0
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Don't Knows seem pretty low on both, but especially the online.0
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Broken, sleazy Remain on the slide.
Broken, sleazy Leave on the slide.
Now everyone can selectively quote me after the fact0 -
@BBCNormanS: Methinks another 'twit storm' set to erupt over Boris Johnson "hostage video" remarks0
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I have never known anyone to hype up their position like that and win.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think Cummings would have posted a tweet like that over the weekend if his private polls showed Leave were on course for a win.TheScreamingEagles said:The amusing thing is Dominic Cummings was using ICM for Vote Leave's private polling, if they still are, are they using phone polls or online polls.
Unless he was double-bluffing..0 -
Tariq Ali, the leftwing writer and activist and friend of Corbyn’s, says Corbyn is “completely opposed to the EU”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/may/16/trump-complains-sadiq-khan-has-been-very-nasty-about-him-politics-live0 -
What's 14pts between friends?Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
People will decide when they get out of bed on June 23rd and choose between 50 billion more immigrants or 50 trillion less quid.SouthamObserver said:Don't Knows seem pretty low on both, but especially the online.
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@PickardJE: Less immigration is plank of VoteLeave.
But here @DanHannanMEP backs EFTA model - with "free movement..of people." https://t.co/nJHguI47gb0 -
At the present rate of 'lie inflation' it will be 500 billion immigrants and 5000 trillion pounds by then.Pulpstar said:
People will decide when they get out of bed on June 23rd and choose between 50 billion more immigrants or 50 trillion less quid.SouthamObserver said:Don't Knows seem pretty low on both, but especially the online.
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That means Mr "Wigan Pier" is going to get all over excited by it.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Methinks another 'twit storm' set to erupt over Boris Johnson "hostage video" remarks
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I'm going with seaweed - it's more reliable.
Or astrology...0 -
Is there even a point in saying that the Guardian and BBC were not really fawning over Beppe Grillo? Probably not. When it comes to supporting TEAM and opposing OTHER TEAM, if you want to to believe, you want to believe. I'm quite sure, however, that his conviction for manslaughter would warn off even the most optimistic journalist from hagiography.FrancisUrquhart said:You know that "quirky" ex-comedian that the Guardian / BBC axis were fawning over a few years ago...
Beppe Grillo said he couldn't wait to see the new Muslim mayor of London 'blow himself up at Westminster' during a televised event in Padua on Saturday.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3592778/Italian-politician-says-t-wait-new-Muslim-mayor-London-blows-Westminster-following-Sadiq-Khan-s-election-victory.html
Hilarious.....0 -
It was the Ken Bigley hostage video/death that got Boris into trouble a few years ago.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Methinks another 'twit storm' set to erupt over Boris Johnson "hostage video" remarks
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ICM Error Final Phone Poll GE2015:
Con (-3.8) Lab (+3.8) LD (+0.9) UKIP (-1.9) Grn (+0.2) Oth (-0.7)
If they repeat that right/left error margin again....
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Hands up.TheScreamingEagles said:It was the Ken Bigley hostage video/death that got Boris into trouble a few years ago.
How many Brexiteers are now wishing Farage was more prominent in the campaign than Boris?0 -
Beppo Grillo? I thought he was a darling of the Kippers for, among other things, his attempts to get a referendum on Italy's membership of the Eurozone.FrancisUrquhart said:You know that "quirky" ex-comedian that the Guardian / BBC axis were fawning over a few years ago...
Beppe Grillo said he couldn't wait to see the new Muslim mayor of London 'blow himself up at Westminster' during a televised event in Padua on Saturday.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3592778/Italian-politician-says-t-wait-new-Muslim-mayor-London-blows-Westminster-following-Sadiq-Khan-s-election-victory.html
Hilarious.....0 -
The only thing consistent with both ICM polls is that Leave are favoured by turnout.Plato_Says said:
What's 14pts between friends?Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.
Using the 10/10 certainty to vote in the Phone poll Remain's lead goes down to 7 points, in the Online poll Leave's lead goes up to 7 points.0 -
Just seen (in abbreviated form) the hostage line that has Smith wetting himself.
All Boris said was that the business leaders and foreign visitors to Downing Street supporting Remain were reminiscent of hostage videos.
Boris being silly is par for the course.0 -
Not really sure this is great news for either side. Both polls show little change from their last iterations and they both continue to show very divergent results0
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I think it's hilarious - brilliant actually.Morris_Dancer said:Just seen (in abbreviated form) the hostage line that has Smith wetting himself.
All Boris said was that the business leaders and foreign visitors to Downing Street supporting Remain were reminiscent of hostage videos.
Boris being silly is par for the course.0 -
His knickers remarks are very funny and engaging.Morris_Dancer said:Just seen (in abbreviated form) the hostage line that has Smith wetting himself.
All Boris said was that the business leaders and foreign visitors to Downing Street supporting Remain were reminiscent of hostage videos.
Boris being silly is par for the course.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/732192698891804672
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The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
You said it yourself: Cummings breaks all the rules.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have never known anyone to hype up their position like that and win.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think Cummings would have posted a tweet like that over the weekend if his private polls showed Leave were on course for a win.TheScreamingEagles said:The amusing thing is Dominic Cummings was using ICM for Vote Leave's private polling, if they still are, are they using phone polls or online polls.
Unless he was double-bluffing..0 -
perhaps there should be a book on why there is this divergence.
2/1 UKIP supporters infesting online polls
2/1 Phone poll respondents not wanting to express an opinion SJWs think is racism
5/1 Demographics of this are so different that they cant get a representative sample without about 10,000 responders
10/1 Phone pollsters have been overpolling bits of Bedford
25/1 Both polls are grossly wrong
100/1 Nige has put a virus on the online pollsters program
500/1 Brussels plot to confuse everyone.
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Mr. Runnymede, negative, comrade. Deputy Vice Political Journalist Comrade Smith has already indicated this comment is to be frowned upon and has been categorised 'controversial/offensive'. Your opinion is in error.
[I think it's fine, not too fussed either way. Perplexed as to why people would actually think it controversial].0 -
Excellent bit of analysis. ThanksSpeedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
Mr. Meeks, hmm. My first thought on the female telephone/online difference made me think the demographics would be different. But I'd guess the elderly would be more represented on the telephone, which seems contrary to age-related polling.0
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That's quite startling if true - and I doubt it is good news for REMAINSpeedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
Re Mike's tweet about polls prior to the last election. How badly are the online polls skewed by one pollster doing absolutely loads of polls. If you have one bad pollster doing loads of polls it could mask the accuracy of the other online polls. What is the basis for his numbers?0
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Mr. Speedy, missed that post. As Mr. Taffys said, top bit of analysis.0
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The error last time was in favour of the Right and the Conservatives but the assumption being made this time by some Remainers is that a similar error is present in the EU ref because of the economics, because that's what the Conservatives won on last year.chestnut said:ICM Error Final Phone Poll GE2015:
Con (-3.8) Lab (+3.8) LD (+0.9) UKIP (-1.9) Grn (+0.2) Oth (-0.7)
If they repeat that right/left error margin again....
Doesn't quite work like that, particularly since the base of Remain support is from the Left. Centre-right voters are splitting 2:1 for Brexit and more Conservatives back Brexit than do not.
So I think the true picture may well lie between phone and online, but not quite as much in favour of phone polls as some Remainers seem to think.0 -
For much the same reason some people claiming Hitler in aid is controversial.Morris_Dancer said:Perplexed as to why people would actually think it controversial.
It's something to do with the violent deaths. Maybe you can work it out from there.0 -
How bizarre.Speedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
If the base of the remain support is on the left, how come the online poll shows Leave ahead?Casino_Royale said:
The error last time was in favour of the Right and the Conservatives but the assumption being made this time by some Remainers is that a similar error is present in the EU ref because of the economics, because that's what the Conservatives won on last year.chestnut said:ICM Error Final Phone Poll GE2015:
Con (-3.8) Lab (+3.8) LD (+0.9) UKIP (-1.9) Grn (+0.2) Oth (-0.7)
If they repeat that right/left error margin again....
Doesn't quite work like that, particularly since the base of Remain support is from the Left. Centre-right voters are splitting 2:1 for Brexit and more Conservatives back Brexit than do not.
So I think the true picture may well lie between phone and online, but not quite as much in favour of phone polls as some Remainers seem to think.
after all the online poll got 2015 MORE wrong - and so should be more biased to the left???0 -
Since there appears to be no way to make sure you are polled by an online pollster how do you think UKIP supporters or any other parties supporters are able to influence a result?Paul_Bedfordshire said:perhaps there should be a book on why there is this divergence.
2/1 UKIP supporters infesting online polls
2/1 Phone poll respondents not wanting to express an opinion SJWs think is racism
5/1 Demographics of this are so different that they cant get a representative sample without about 10,000 responders
10/1 Phone pollsters have been overpolling bits of Bedford
25/1 Both polls are grossly wrong
100/1 Nige has put a virus on the online pollsters program
500/1 Brussels plot to confuse everyone.0 -
Mr. P, Boris once jested about being decapitated with a frisbee. Didn't quite recollect the outrage at the time.0
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The ICM Phone Poll has Lab 37, Con 33 for the GE.
The ICM Online Poll has Lab 32, Con 33 for the GE.
Which one is likelier to be close to the truth, bearing in mind the results we saw last week - London identical to 2015, Labour routed in Scotland, treading water at best in Wales and net losers in England council seats?0 -
Why would it be bad news for Remain? Doesn't it show that the online polls are disproportionately capturing the group of angry, RT watching, resentful over 65s who are not representative of the demographic as a whole?runnymede said:
That's quite startling if true - and I doubt it is good news for REMAINSpeedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
I can't stand that bloke - a pound shop Ben EltonFrancisUrquhart said:America (Budweiser) vs TheDonald....
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bADMad_jXBo0 -
That's a good point. Prob fairer to say online are more politically engaged (Brexiters will be uber keen to declare colours now but it was Labour voters last year)taffys said:
If the base of the remain support is on the left, how come the online poll shows Leave ahead?Casino_Royale said:
The error last time was in favour of the Right and the Conservatives but the assumption being made this time by some Remainers is that a similar error is present in the EU ref because of the economics, because that's what the Conservatives won on last year.chestnut said:ICM Error Final Phone Poll GE2015:
Con (-3.8) Lab (+3.8) LD (+0.9) UKIP (-1.9) Grn (+0.2) Oth (-0.7)
If they repeat that right/left error margin again....
Doesn't quite work like that, particularly since the base of Remain support is from the Left. Centre-right voters are splitting 2:1 for Brexit and more Conservatives back Brexit than do not.
So I think the true picture may well lie between phone and online, but not quite as much in favour of phone polls as some Remainers seem to think.
after all the online poll got 2015 MORE wrong - and so should be more biased to the left???0 -
More seriously there is now an enduring pattern showing this difference in phone polls to online polls
Phone polls were nearer the mark in the GE, Online nearer the mark in the more recent London and Scotland election.
What is remarkable is the consistency of the difference.
Could it be
The more wealthy are out and therefore less likely to answer the phone - unlikely as the online polls had a bias to labour last time
The retired are more likely to answer the phone - unlikely as if that was the case the phone polls would give a brexit lead
Shy tory syndrome - people reluctant to admit voting tory/brexit on the phones but more willing to admit tory/brexit on the computer - you would expect the online to show closer result in 2015 if that was the case.
Lets take a look at 2015 more closely...
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Is based on this is ComRes tweet hereRichard_Tyndall said:Re Mike's tweet about polls prior to the last election. How badly are the online polls skewed by one pollster doing absolutely loads of polls. If you have one bad pollster doing loads of polls it could mask the accuracy of the other online polls. What is the basis for his numbers?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cg4ONFBWMAAfrUz.jpg
and the findings the BPC inquiry
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cil0nsAWwAEfwIn.jpg0 -
Agreed. A problem about drawing analogies to the GE is that phone polls may have been better then online for some reason that doesn't apply in the referendum. Or not. Studying the subsamples will produce a lot of noise, but who knows, really.Richard_Tyndall said:Not really sure this is great news for either side. Both polls show little change from their last iterations and they both continue to show very divergent results
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That's why a few months ago I requested that we test it here on PB, which is stuffed with old aged Tories to see which one comes closest.Plato_Says said:
How bizarre.Speedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
I remember that the result on Nojam was 70-30 for Leave.
On that basis I declared victory for the online polls, of course the Nojam poll was an online poll.0 -
For Tory v Labour, whilst discounting the remaining third of the electorate.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Phone polls were nearer the mark in the GE,
Every single one of the final phone polls understated the Kippers.0 -
You should have seen the denial on here when I pointed out Zac led Khan by 22% to 30% with the overs 65s, and still lost by 14%williamglenn said:
Why would it be bad news for Remain? Doesn't it show that the online polls are disproportionately capturing the group of angry, RT watching, resentful over 65s who are not representative of the demographic as a whole?runnymede said:
That's quite startling if true - and I doubt it is good news for REMAINSpeedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.0 -
Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 260 -
If that is the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
But in all seriousness, I think they are doing it to see which mode is best, if one is clearly more successful than the other, we might see the end of either phone polls or online polls.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.
What's the betting that they will find that phone is more accurate for some demographics.
And online will be more accurate with others? We'll be no further forward.0 -
Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...0
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The only option for me now is to trend watch, the numbers are all over the place - 14pts? It's absurd.chestnut said:
For Tory v Labour, whilst discounting the remaining third of the electorate.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Phone polls were nearer the mark in the GE,
Every single one of the final phone polls understated the Kippers.0 -
Well, no, because they would have identified the problem. I am sure they could synthesise a phone+online poll.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that is the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
But in all seriousness, I think they are doing it to see which mode is best, if one is clearly more successful than the other, we might see the end of either phone polls or online polls.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.
What's the betting that they will find that phone is more accurate for some demographics.
And online will be more accurate with others? We'll be no further forward.0 -
Most sensible thing said all day.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. A problem about drawing analogies to the GE is that phone polls may have been better then online for some reason that doesn't apply in the referendum. Or not. Studying the subsamples will produce a lot of noise, but who knows, really.Richard_Tyndall said:Not really sure this is great news for either side. Both polls show little change from their last iterations and they both continue to show very divergent results
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Well the Crosby-Textor polls used at the last general election that got the final result nearly spot on was a hybrid poll, using both online and phone modes, so you might be right.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that is the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
But in all seriousness, I think they are doing it to see which mode is best, if one is clearly more successful than the other, we might see the end of either phone polls or online polls.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.
What's the betting that they will find that phone is more accurate for some demographics.
And online will be more accurate with others? We'll be no further forward.0 -
Just sent you a vanilla message.Casino_Royale said:
Most sensible thing said all day.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. A problem about drawing analogies to the GE is that phone polls may have been better then online for some reason that doesn't apply in the referendum. Or not. Studying the subsamples will produce a lot of noise, but who knows, really.Richard_Tyndall said:Not really sure this is great news for either side. Both polls show little change from their last iterations and they both continue to show very divergent results
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Utah becoming more Dem this election will be offset by New York being more GOP - net result will be a wash or so.Speedy said:Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 260 -
del0
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Moderators
Regarding the previous ICM Phone Apr 12-15 - the table on page 13 for certain to vote shows LEAVE as 40 and not the 41 in the figures above. Was there some adjustment?
2016_guardian_april_ICM modetest.pdf0 -
I've grown to detest Photoshopped pix and CGI replacing real stunts. I saw a genuine bikini pix of Marilyn, and she'd a bit of a love handle and dimply thigh. It was much better than icing smooth perfection. Every pix I get on Twitter is filtered to death.richardDodd said:Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...
This is a stunt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDeUzB12ln80 -
It means that one (or both) of their clients has got a load of the proverbial.Tissue_Price said:I understand why ICM are doing this, but it's not really acceptable, is it?
Pro-cake, pro-eating it; pro-polling, pro-being right after the event whatever happens.0 -
You will be shocked what is CG in modern films these days...it is way beyond for "special efffects". Youtube for "VFX breakdown" and you will be shocked how many scenes had VFX work and you never knew. Many movies now use a "digital double" for significant percentage of the movie and set extensions are completely common (large parts of the latest bond movie didn't exist in real life) you never knew.Plato_Says said:
I've grown to detest Photoshopped pix and CGI replacing real stunts. I saw a genuine bikini pix of Marilyn, and she'd a bit of a love handle and dimply thigh. It was much better than icing smooth perfection. Every pix I get on Twitter is filtered to death.richardDodd said:Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...
This is a stunt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDeUzB12ln80 -
I have often wondered how he escaped being eaten alive. Had their teeth been blunted in some way? After all, he appears to literally have his foot in the jaws of a seriously cross croc at one stage and yet manages to walk away!Plato_Says said:
I've grown to detest Photoshopped pix and CGI replacing real stunts. I saw a genuine bikini pix of Marilyn, and she'd a bit of a love handle and dimply thigh. It was much better than icing smooth perfection. Every pix I get on Twitter is filtered to death.richardDodd said:Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...
This is a stunt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDeUzB12ln8
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1978...ydoethur said:
I have often wondered how he escaped being eaten alive. Had their teeth been blunted in some way? After all, he appears to literally have his foot in the jaws of a seriously cross croc at one stage and yet manages to walk away!Plato_Says said:
I've grown to detest Photoshopped pix and CGI replacing real stunts. I saw a genuine bikini pix of Marilyn, and she'd a bit of a love handle and dimply thigh. It was much better than icing smooth perfection. Every pix I get on Twitter is filtered to death.richardDodd said:Just watched The Great Escape...again..difficult to spot the CGI...
This is a stunt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDeUzB12ln8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0Y3A-zib-Q0 -
That's very interesting - is it really the sole explanation for the divergence between online and phone polling?Speedy said:The only thing I can see as usual that causes the difference between Online and Phone polls are the reaction of the over 65's of age.
In the ICM Phone poll over 65's are in favour of Remain, in the ICM Online poll they are 2-1 in favour of Leave.
The entire difference is caused by that one category and it's consistent since the start.
Most of the older folks I meet are "reluctant leavers" - admittedly I tend to associate with SE/metropolitan ABs. Obviously not representative.0 -
A brief reminder:
UKIP/Con Right Wing Bloc May 2015 Final Phone Polls
Actual 50.6%
Ipsos 47% (-3.6%)
ICM 46% (-4.6%)
Ashcroft 44% (-6.6%)
Comres 47% (-3.6%)
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Referenda are difficult for polling companies to call because they are one-offs with few reference points.SouthamObserver said:Don't Knows seem pretty low on both, but especially the online.
I think there is also a category "Don't care very much but will vote". Previous polling shows that most people are not that interested in Europe or the EU, but they will have to make a binary choice on the 23rd June. Will "Don't care" translate into "Fed up" or "Stick with what we know"?0 -
So one poll has it indyref2 and one has Leave ahead I will split the difference and stick to 52% 48% Remain0
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Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?0
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2015 Election result:
C 37.8, L31.2, LD8.1, UKIP 12.9 Grn 3.8, Rest 6.3
Last Polls
Populus (online - I think) 5-7 May 34/34/9/13
Survation (phone) 6 May 37/31/10/11
Surveymonkey (online) 30ap 6 may 34/28/7/13
Ashcroft (online I think) 5/6 May 33/33/10/11
Ipsosmori (Tel) 5/6 May 36/35/8/11
Yougov (online) 4/6 May 34/34/10/12
ICM (Phone) 3-6 May 34/35/9/11
Panebase (online) 1-6 May 31/33/8/16
Opinium (online) 35/34/8/12
Conservative/LAB - nearly all polls underestimated conservative and overestimated Labour but by nowhere near as much difference as the ref polls are splitting between online and phone
UKIP - Online polls were spot on or not far out (exept one), phone consisently underestimated UKIP by two percentage points (11 against 13).
LD- generally overestimated a little.
So we can conclude that whatever else they got wrong, online polls were on the mark with UKIP voters. This rather demolishes the meme that in the referendum polls leave is ahead because it is more vulnerable to the Kipper Tendency.
It is clear that the polls undersampled Tories and oversampled Labour, nearly all of them did but it was more noticable on online polls.
Reasons seem to be:
1) Lack of traditional conservative voters
2) Misjudgement of turnout
3) Made a demographic error.
Undoubtably the pollsters will have tried to correct their conservative demographic. This seems to have caused a split in results between online and phone.
There are two Conservative camps. Public school inners and Grammer school outers. Getting that balance right would be crucial and very difficult. As indeed would be working out turnout.
What you wouldn't expect though is the split to be reflected consistently across phone and online polls which have all independently adjusted since the election.
And the split is not minor, it is huge, far bigger than any difference between the polls at the 2015 election.
I dont know the answer but I wonder this.
I suspect more affluent Conservative voters are probably easier to get hold of on a landline phone with working class labour voters easier to get hold of on a mobile - which would make such Labour voters harder to phone poll.
I suspect the same factor is going to be apparent in this referendum and with the lower down the social scale you are the less likely you are to have a landline or be able to be got hold of on one this might explain why online polls show more brexiters. On the other hand retirees are more likely to be at home, and so phone pollable. They will be pro brexit but not as much as the WWC.
This leads to the question. How well are phone pollsters getting hold of the white working class versus online polls. Could this be the difference. Who has the accurate ear of white van man?
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Incidentally, it's worth noting that the polls give Labour "a clear advantage" before adjustment - in other words, they're not very different from the polls 5 years ago when Miliband was ahead. I'm not disputing that turnout and registration issues hamper Labour, so some correction makes sense, but it's possible tht the polls are in fact over-correcting, which would explain why Labour did better than expected in England this month. It's quite plausible that the correct state of play among people who actually vote is a small Labour lead, and that this was also the case 5 years ago.
By the way, for anyone interested, I've left my job as Director of Policy for Cruelty Free International to do a more varied mixture of consultancy (partly for CFI but also a variety of others) and translation. This frees me a bit in political terms, since the former job was strictly non-partisan, even though I was free to do political stuff in my free time.0 -
Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably0
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IIRC they call mobile and landlines.Norm said:Do phone polling companies just contact landlines? The naturally suspicious won't answer unknown numbers. Are they likely to be inners or outers?
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Romney won Utah by 44% in 2012 so while Trump should now win it Hillary is still doing significantly better than Obama did there and Trump worse than Romney, Mormons are holding their noses to vote for himSpeedy said:Well Trump has got Utah back as a safe state:
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 3h3 hours ago
Utah General Election:
Trump 43% (+5 since Apr)
Clinton 30% (-8)
Undecided 260 -
Osborne spinning crap as usual I see0
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Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.HYUFD said:Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
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Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc0 -
Trump is the first GOP nominee since Goldwater to have significant numbers of the GOP establishment refuse to endorse himPlato_Says said:
Oh FFS - I'm sick of Goldwater comparisons. It's 50yrs ago and a totally different media/political background.HYUFD said:Rather farcical comment in the last thread by Londonbob hailing a Trump lead in Utah as confirmation he was a dead cert for the presidency. Only 1 GOP nominee since WW2 has lost Utah, Barry Goldwater and he won just 6 states. To win Trump should be winning Utah comfortably
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I'm entertained that Remain loved voters thinking it was £4300pa worse off now, but objecting to Leave pointing out £200bn pa is the total EU market today - can't have it both ways. And neither stands up as a forecast from Wrong Next Month Osborne.Alanbrooke said:Osborne spinning crap as usual I see
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Have you popped into Talisker yet?Alanbrooke said:Had a lovely day on the Isle of Skye
Went to a farm shop and saw canned turnips for the first time ever
Couldn't help but think of malc
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