politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A BREXIT indicator? UKIP’s National Equivalent Vote share d
Comments
-
Cameron thinks if we leave the EU there will be a war.
Best then if we get in first and choose who to fight.
Traditionally that might be to fight Germany, France or Spain.
But we have never been at war with Portugal - lets invade the Algarve and annex their piri piri chicken.
0 -
I thought we already had (in an alliance with the Germans)?David_Evershed said:...lets invade the Algarve ...
0 -
Today's ICM EU Ref poll had VI Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 17 LD 7 Others 11 UKIP support grossly inflated as in most Online polls . Reduce them to 12% and the Leave lead of 2% disappears .0
-
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
In wonder if, five years from now, he will have outdone his hero Tony Blair in terms of becoming a despised and discredited figure. Quite possibly, I think, depending on the choices he makes.Indigo said:
EU Commissioner ? Be an appropriate reward if he "docks the UK with the EU".... can't think where that phrase came fromrunnymede said:He must be very confident about whatever future he has planned after politics, btw.
0 -
34 UKIP, 30 Lib Demsrcs1000 said:
Just as a matter of interest, how many LibDem PCC were standing? I see UKIP were almost everywhere.Sean_F said:
UKIP also outpolled the Lib Dems in the PCC elections (which took place throughout England and Wales) by 450,000.chestnut said:UKIP made a net gain of 26 seats, didn't they?
Hardly earth shattering but better than losing them, while a repeat of the 2015 vote share implies that 12-13% of the national electorate is locked in to UK independence.
Overall, Leave need something like 70% of the right wing vote (Con/UKIP) plus 30% of the left on an assumption of uniform turnout comparable to 2015.0 -
We will fight them on the beaches, we will fight them on the golf courses...David_Evershed said:Cameron thinks if we leave the EU there will be a war.
Best then if we get in first and choose who to fight.
Traditionally that might be to fight Germany, France or Spain.
But we have never been at war with Portugal - lets invade the Algarve and annex their piri piri chicken.0 -
At PMQs I'd like to ask who he thinks the war will involve. In the 1930s it wouldn't have been too hard to predict.
Perhaps the well known warmongers Malta will nuke us in early July0 -
..... and the EU parliament is where 70% of UK laws are approved my the MEPs.David_Evershed said:
UKIP came first in the UK's European elections and has the most MEPS of any national group in the EU parliament.Stark_Dawning said:UKIP is clearly withering on the vine. 2014 was its high point, but now it just looks samey and unappealing. I was lambasted on here when I called it out as a fad a few years ago, but it's interesting how many Leavers and euro-phobic Tories are now keen to distant themselves from it when back in the day they were happy to ride on its coattails. I can't see UKIP lasting, though Carswell will probably linger on as a kind of novelty independent.
0 -
Where as if Leave win, that 50 or so Tory sceptics that decided to back Remain because Dave asked/cajoled/threatened them, will suddenly have a Damascene conversion, or claim they were misunderstood, possibly behaving under duress, the possibilities are endlessTheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.
0 -
@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 20160
-
Mr. 63, Scotland?0
-
Only 16 hours to wait ....Wanderer said:So what do people think Leave's chances actually are?
NCP gives it 22.3% (http://www.ncpolitics.uk/euref/)
Betfair hovers around 30% implied probability
Not sure about the latest ARSE4EU
0 -
LOL. You don't like part of their numbers so you change those, but do you like other bits so you keep them, and yet both bits come from the same sample.MarkSenior said:Today's ICM EU Ref poll had VI Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 17 LD 7 Others 11 UKIP support grossly inflated as in most Online polls . Reduce them to 12% and the Leave lead of 2% disappears .
0 -
Hadrian did to them what Trump wants to do with Mexico.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 63, Scotland?
0 -
Erdogan is now taking legal action against the head of Axel Springer. He's determined to overplay his hand.0
-
Whitewash shortages to be reported throughout the month of June....Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 2016
0 -
Odds on it being leaked during the referendum campaign?Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 2016
0 -
Sometimes, in fact quite often, you espouse the most infantile rubbish. Oh I know I've had my share, but you are supposed to be better; a Carrier of the Thread no less and shining light when the Master is away.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
What are you talking about?blackburn63 said:
See what I mean? Cry racist all you like mate, but get your own house in order first, the cat is out of the bag.logical_song said:
It would help if their candidates stopped giving everybody the 'wrong' impression.blackburn63 said:
Oh, faux outrage, is that the same faux outrage when Labour are accused of anti semitism?midwinter said:
Some ukip voters are obsessed with immigration and race and see ukip as an acceptable/respectable way of expressing their views at the ballot box. These people in many cases would never contemplate voting for an overtly racist party. Mr Palmer makes a fair point.blackburn63 said:
Some? Read the Ukip sympathisers on here and tell me what they have in common with Britain First please.NickPalmer said:
He was out-bonkered by two guys even further to the right, who campaigned almost exclusively on immigration and made him look like a boring centrist. Add the BNP and Britain First guys to UKIP and they hit 5.3% together, putting them above the LibDems and just behind the Greens. But in fairness you have to say that some people who voted UKIP would not have touched them if they'd been in bed with Britain First.Wanderer said:I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.
How to interpret it though? Is it a straw in the wind for the referendum or is it just that UKIP itself is increasingly hapless and disorganised?
You are correct to say ukip leaning supporters on here have little or nothing in common with Britain First. That is irrelevant to the comment made so the faux outrage was unnecessary.
I'm sick of people hinting at racism in Ukip
"They just had to suspend someone for wanting to shoot an Asian if he became Prime Minister. And a couple of days before that it was for anti-semitic abuse. And before that there was lady who just doesn’t like the faces of negroes. Janice Atkinson - now expelled from the party for financial irregularities - called someone a “ting-tong”"
The quotation is about what UKIP candidates have said.
I don't have a house that needs getting in order or a cat.
However for your delight here's another UKIP candidate apologising for guess what? They are very easy to find.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-05-05/ukip-candidate-apologises-for-sexist-racist-violent-comments-about-female-journalist/0 -
Before we do that perhaps he can explain how we can simultaneously be both too poor, too small and too weak to go it alone, but also able to cause the EU economy to implode and start World War Three if we leave, its a paradoxblackburn63 said:At PMQs I'd like to ask who he thinks the war will involve. In the 1930s it wouldn't have been too hard to predict.
Perhaps the well known warmongers Malta will nuke us in early July 0 -
I imagine the invertebrate count exceeds 50.Indigo said:
Where as if Leave win, that 50 or so Tory sceptics that decided to back Remain because Dave asked/cajoled/threatened them, will suddenly have a Damascene conversion, or claim they were misunderstood, possibly behaving under duress, the possibilities are endlessTheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Yeah you've convinced me, I'm voting Remain, feel better alreadyStark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
That might provide some good material for Trump to use against the US political establishment.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 2016
0 -
Remove UKIP supporters altogether, and Remain have a big lead.MarkSenior said:Today's ICM EU Ref poll had VI Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 17 LD 7 Others 11 UKIP support grossly inflated as in most Online polls . Reduce them to 12% and the Leave lead of 2% disappears .
An inaccurate poll is one that gives you a message you don't want to hear.0 -
@steve_hawkes: Jeremy Corbyn will tonight tell MPs: "Last week’s elections showed Labour’s recovery has begun in earnest."0
-
Not if you are talking to two entirely different audiences. Which is what they are trying to do.Indigo said:
Before we do that perhaps he can explain how we can simultaneously be both too poor, too small and too weak to go it alone, but also able to cause the EU economy to implode and start World War Three if we leave, its a paradoxblackburn63 said:At PMQs I'd like to ask who he thinks the war will involve. In the 1930s it wouldn't have been too hard to predict.
Perhaps the well known warmongers Malta will nuke us in early July
Another habit picked up from their chums the Lib Dems.0 -
Keep going if it makes you feel better about yourselflogical_song said:
What are you talking about?blackburn63 said:
See what I mean? Cry racist all you like mate, but get your own house in order first, the cat is out of the bag.logical_song said:
It would help if their candidates stopped giving everybody the 'wrong' impression.blackburn63 said:
Oh, faux outrage, is that the same faux outrage when Labour are accused of anti semitism?midwinter said:
Some ukip voters are obsessed with immigration and race and see ukip as an acceptable/respectable way of expressing their views at the ballot box. These people in many cases would never contemplate voting for an overtly racist party. Mr Palmer makes a fair point.blackburn63 said:
Some? Read the Ukip sympathisers on here and tell me what they have in common with Britain First please.NickPalmer said:
He was out-bonkered by two guys even further to the right, who campaigned almost exclusively on immigration and made him look like a boring centrist. Add the BNP and Britain First guys to UKIP and they hit 5.3% together, putting them above the LibDems and just behind the Greens. But in fairness you have to say that some people who voted UKIP would not have touched them if they'd been in bed with Britain First.Wanderer said:I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.
How to interpret it though? Is it a straw in the wind for the referendum or is it just that UKIP itself is increasingly hapless and disorganised?
You are correct to say ukip leaning supporters on here have little or nothing in common with Britain First. That is irrelevant to the comment made so the faux outrage was unnecessary.
I'm sick of people hinting at racism in Ukip
"They just had to suspend someone for wanting to shoot an Asian if he became Prime Minister. And a couple of days before that it was for anti-semitic abuse. And before that there was lady who just doesn’t like the faces of negroes. Janice Atkinson - now expelled from the party for financial irregularities - called someone a “ting-tong”"
The quotation is about what UKIP candidates have said.
I don't have a house that needs getting in order or a cat.
However for your delight here's another UKIP candidate apologising for guess what? They are very easy to find.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-05-05/ukip-candidate-apologises-for-sexist-racist-violent-comments-about-female-journalist/0 -
If I were you I would stop digging.blackburn63 said:
Keep going if it makes you feel better about yourselflogical_song said:
What are you talking about?blackburn63 said:
See what I mean? Cry racist all you like mate, but get your own house in order first, the cat is out of the bag.logical_song said:
It would help if their candidates stopped giving everybody the 'wrong' impression.blackburn63 said:
Oh, faux outrage, is that the same faux outrage when Labour are accused of anti semitism?midwinter said:
Some ukip voters are obsessed with immigration and race and see ukip as an acceptable/respectable way of expressing their views at the ballot box. These people in many cases would never contemplate voting for an overtly racist party. Mr Palmer makes a fair point.blackburn63 said:
Some? Read the Ukip sympathisers on here and tell me what they have in common with Britain First please.NickPalmer said:
He was out-bonkered by two guys even further to the right, who campaigned almost exclusively on immigration and made him look like a boring centrist. Add the BNP and Britain First guys to UKIP and they hit 5.3% together, putting them above the LibDems and just behind the Greens. But in fairness you have to say that some people who voted UKIP would not have touched them if they'd been in bed with Britain First.Wanderer said:I've been wondering about this. I certainly expected a stronger showing from UKIP in England and also for Peter Whittle to challenge for third place in London.
How to interpret it though? Is it a straw in the wind for the referendum or is it just that UKIP itself is increasingly hapless and disorganised?
You are correct to say ukip leaning supporters on here have little or nothing in common with Britain First. That is irrelevant to the comment made so the faux outrage was unnecessary.
I'm sick of people hinting at racism in Ukip
"They just had to suspend someone for wanting to shoot an Asian if he became Prime Minister. And a couple of days before that it was for anti-semitic abuse. And before that there was lady who just doesn’t like the faces of negroes. Janice Atkinson - now expelled from the party for financial irregularities - called someone a “ting-tong”"
The quotation is about what UKIP candidates have said.
I don't have a house that needs getting in order or a cat.
However for your delight here's another UKIP candidate apologising for guess what? They are very easy to find.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-05-05/ukip-candidate-apologises-for-sexist-racist-violent-comments-about-female-journalist/0 -
Welll that should get a good laugh from the audience...I wonder what other zingers he has got to amuse the crowd with? Did I ever tell you the one about adolf before he went a but mad? ;-)Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: Jeremy Corbyn will tonight tell MPs: "Last week’s elections showed Labour’s recovery has begun in earnest."
0 -
Milton Ernest?Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: Jeremy Corbyn will tonight tell MPs: "Last week’s elections showed Labour’s recovery has begun in earnest."
0 -
@MrHarryCole: Jez: "don’t think Labour MPs should be parading on the media to give a running commentary on our party". He should tell his old mate Ken.0
-
0
-
@MrHarryCole: Corbyn: "I don’t expect, or even want, blind loyalty"FrancisUrquhart said:Welll that should get a good laugh from the audience...I wonder what other zingers he has got to amuse the crowd with? Did I ever tell you the one about adolf before he went a but mad? ;-)
0 -
I know why he never got a job I'm advertising...Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Jez: "don’t think Labour MPs should be parading on the media to give a running commentary on our party". He should tell his old mate Ken.
0 -
An accurate poll is one that deludes you into thinking it is correct .Sean_F said:
Remove UKIP supporters altogether, and Remain have a big lead.MarkSenior said:Today's ICM EU Ref poll had VI Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 17 LD 7 Others 11 UKIP support grossly inflated as in most Online polls . Reduce them to 12% and the Leave lead of 2% disappears .
An inaccurate poll is one that gives you a message you don't want to hear.0 -
-
So Iraq Inquiry to be published 6th July. When do the "leaks" start?0
-
Isn't that the motto for Rasmussen ? ..MarkSenior said:
An accurate poll is one that deludes you into thinking it is correct .Sean_F said:
Remove UKIP supporters altogether, and Remain have a big lead.MarkSenior said:Today's ICM EU Ref poll had VI Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 17 LD 7 Others 11 UKIP support grossly inflated as in most Online polls . Reduce them to 12% and the Leave lead of 2% disappears .
An inaccurate poll is one that gives you a message you don't want to hear.
0 -
I think he speaks for rather a lot of Remainers - they feel the EU has serious flaws, but don't think it's wise to withdraw. Real EU enthusiasts like me are thin on the ground in all parties. As in other areas, Corbyn is being a lot more honest than Cameron, whose enthusiasm for membership is as unconvincing as his previous suggestion that he hadn't quite decided - in reality I think he's lukewarm too.MarqueeMark said:
Curious to understand what Labour voters see to trust in Corbyn's EU position. He has one arse cheek in Remain, one in Leave as he unconvincingly says he will fall on the Remain side of the fence....0 -
No you are just deluded.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Incidentally, I've seen a few posters around Sheffield lately, saying 'Sheffield' and 'Quit', in large letters.
When I first saw these posters, from a distance of a few hundred feet, I thought they were from the Leave campaign, but then I got close enough to read the rest of the writing and realised they're actually from an anti-smoking campaign, telling Sheffield to quit smoking not the EU.
The election would have to be on a knife-edge to be swung by this kind of subliminal effect, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if it influenced a few people.0 -
Indeed. Much better to be commenting on another European party much in evidence between 1920 and 1945.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Jez: "don’t think Labour MPs should be parading on the media to give a running commentary on our party". He should tell his old mate Ken.
0 -
Don't get excited. It will be the redacted version.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 2016
0 -
Inflamatory and insulting language "nasty obsession". Please be polite. Otherwise some of us will start calling folk like you a cupid stunt.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Where Bedfordshire villages lead the rest of Britain will undoubtedly follow ...williamglenn said:
Milton Ernest?Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: Jeremy Corbyn will tonight tell MPs: "Last week’s elections showed Labour’s recovery has begun in earnest."
0 -
Chilcot report published after referendum shocker.0
-
Well as forecasted the victor of the dueling speeches on Brexit today was Boris.
It was well evident that Cameron tried to write a new speech from the beginning after the hostility of it's reception last night, and it was a complete and boring mess, setting a low bar which Boris went over.0 -
I think he is maybe getting too much "blessed relief" as he types.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Inflamatory and insulting language "nasty obsession". Please be polite. Otherwise some of us will start calling folk like you a cupid stunt.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Portugal is our oldest ally - since 1373 if memory serves and, I think the only country in Europe that we have never fought against (though some of the newer ones might have been an enemy under old colonial arrangements). It is also a wonderful place and the Portuguese are jolly nice people (home to a branch of the Llama clan) who enjoy many of the same things we traditional Brits do, queuing, afternoon tea, messing about in boats/ships, etc..David_Evershed said:Cameron thinks if we leave the EU there will be a war.
Best then if we get in first and choose who to fight.
Traditionally that might be to fight Germany, France or Spain.
But we have never been at war with Portugal - lets invade the Algarve and annex their piri piri chicken.
It takes a special type of diplomatic skill to ensure that after 600 and odd years we and the Portuguese are on opposite sides of an important argument.0 -
If Chilcot dies of old age before his report is published, what happens to the report ?David_Evershed said:
Don't get excited. It will be the redacted version.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Iraq Inquiry report to be published on 6 July 2016
0 -
I am really disappointed that Chilcot has not become a verb. As in, I was going to start a new business but I Chilcotted it.
It would at least give us something for all the millions spent on ancient history.0 -
Perhaps the Chillout report then.Mortimer said:Chilcot report published after referendum shocker.
0 -
Mr. L, spending millions on ancient history sounds eminently sensible.0
-
@faisalislam: PM welcomes fact Chilcot published on July 6th "without need for any redactions" after two weeks of natsec checks https://t.co/qDuEQAtfcb0
-
Oh it's simple, Portugal decided to join Spain in entering the EEC in 1986.HurstLlama said:
Portugal is our oldest ally - since 1373 if memory serves and, I think the only country in Europe that we have never fought against (though some of the newer ones might have been an enemy under old colonial arrangements). It is also a wonderful place and the Portuguese are jolly nice people (home to a branch of the Llama clan) who enjoy many of the same things we traditional Brits do, queuing, afternoon tea, messing about in boats/ships, etc..David_Evershed said:Cameron thinks if we leave the EU there will be a war.
Best then if we get in first and choose who to fight.
Traditionally that might be to fight Germany, France or Spain.
But we have never been at war with Portugal - lets invade the Algarve and annex their piri piri chicken.
It takes a special type of diplomatic skill to ensure that after 600 and odd years we and the Portuguese are on opposite sides of an important argument.0 -
Only the interesting bits.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, spending millions on ancient history sounds eminently sensible.
0 -
The main beneficiary of the Chilcott report will be Chilcott, he's trousered a fortune0
-
Not to mention his team of lawyers.blackburn63 said:The main beneficiary of the Chilcott report will be Chilcott, he's trousered a fortune
0 -
I sincerely hope he gets no thanks at all from anyone for his efforts. He is a disgrace and he should be in disgrace for the remainder of his days.blackburn63 said:The main beneficiary of the Chilcott report will be Chilcott, he's trousered a fortune
0 -
It will have been redacted before the NatSec checks.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: PM welcomes fact Chilcot published on July 6th "without need for any redactions" after two weeks of natsec checks https://t.co/qDuEQAtfcb
0 -
Excellent! It's a lovely feeling, isn't it? You'll also find it has massive intellectual benefits. For example, unshackled from dogma, you can take a step back and punctiliously analyse the Leave commentary on here - a lot of it really is the most vapid, self-congratulating drivel.blackburn63 said:
Yeah you've convinced me, I'm voting Remain, feel better alreadyStark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Presumably Sir John Chilcot takes a fortnight break after the Referendum. Then he gets down to the task of negotiating a new trade deal with the USA at the behest of the Leavers. 7 years sounds about right for that job too.0
-
Afternoon all
I had a read of Cameron's speech today and found it the usual vacuous waffle. There's the usual undercurrent that it's somehow unpatriotic to be opposed to whatever position he's trying to argue - it's a Blairite tactic to wrap yourself in the flag if your argument doesn't cover your embarrassment.
As Turkey and Norway seem quite happy to be part of European defence without being members of the EU while Ireland is happy to be part of the EU without being part of European defence, I don't understand Cameron's argument about the relevance of the EU in terms of security and defence. It's perfectly possible for nations to co-operate and collaborate without having to be in the same economic bloc.
Once again we shouldn't get hung up on campaign rhetoric - what people say before the result and what they'll say after the result are often two entirely different things. It doesn't benefit the EU or the UK to have an adversarial trading relationship so a new arrangement will be quickly formulated.
As to Cameron's persistent line about LEAVE not explaining its position, the same is true of REMAIN. Neither can afford a coherent vision of Britain's relationship with EU in 2020, let alone 2030 or beyond. LEAVE is constructing a series of negotiating positions (or should be) for the talks following the vote. LEAVE should be asking - what do we want and on what will we compromise ?
REMAIN has said nothing about the future either and in truth Cameron's "reforms" are not guaranteed in the event of a change of Government or Conservative leader. When the next "crisis", it's not as though anyone will be convinced by another Conservative Prime Minister, as Major and Cameron, flouncing or refusing to negotiate ?0 -
The whole thing has gone beyond ridicule, there'll be a flurry of denials and threats of legal action while he counts his money.DavidL said:
I sincerely hope he gets no thanks at all from anyone for his efforts. He is a disgrace and he should be in disgrace for the remainder of his days.blackburn63 said:The main beneficiary of the Chilcott report will be Chilcott, he's trousered a fortune
0 -
What do you mean in five years from now? OK, I was never taken on the great snake oil salesman and had him marked down as a charlatan long before his election in 1997 but should you be sad enough to look at my posts on here on the run-up to the 2010 GE you will find me a big Cameron supporter. Now I wouldn't piss in his ear if his brain was on fire, that Mr. Nabavi, who I respect immensely, considers Cameron one of the great post-war prime ministers is beyond my comprehension.runnymede said:
In wonder if, five years from now, he will have outdone his hero Tony Blair in terms of becoming a despised and discredited figure. ....Indigo said:
EU Commissioner ? Be an appropriate reward if he "docks the UK with the EU".... can't think where that phrase came fromrunnymede said:He must be very confident about whatever future he has planned after politics, btw.
0 -
Henry Mance @henrymance · 11m11 minutes ago
Word counts:
War and Peace: 560,000
King James Bible: 780,000
Harry Potter books: 1.1 million
Chilcot Report: 2.6 million
h/t @PickardJE
0 -
Mr. L, there are *lots* of interesting bits.
Classical history is full of heroic chaps, great battles, treachery, woe and doom.0 -
In other news, one of the two indicators in the US presidential race, that I'm using, is pointing towards Trump closing the gap with Hillary.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
Trump has gained 12 points in net favourables among his own party since he was declared the nominee, he is approaching Hillary in levels of party unity.0 -
You underestimate yourself, I can only dream of acquiring your level of intellect.Stark_Dawning said:
Excellent! It's a lovely feeling, isn't it? You'll also find it has massive intellectual benefits. For example, unshackled from dogma, you can take a step back and punctiliously analyse the Leave commentary on here - a lot of it really is the most vapid, self-congratulating drivel.blackburn63 said:
Yeah you've convinced me, I'm voting Remain, feel better alreadyStark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Mr Dawning. Is irony dawning on you?Stark_Dawning said:
Excellent! It's a lovely feeling, isn't it? You'll also find it has massive intellectual benefits. For example, unshackled from dogma, you can take a step back and punctiliously analyse the Leave commentary on here - a lot of it really is the most vapid, self-congratulating drivel.blackburn63 said:
Yeah you've convinced me, I'm voting Remain, feel better alreadyStark_Dawning said:
I'm not so pessimistic. For most Leavers a Remain victory will come as a blessed relief. They can finally rid themselves of this nasty obsession and get on with their lives. I speak as someone who was a rabid euro-phobe for years. I've found that being a convert to Remain is almost therapeutic - you feel relaxed, stable and true to yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do worry if Remains win, some of the passionate Leavers might go all JonestownStark_Dawning said:
Let's face it, if Satan came out for Brexit most of the Leavers would turn against God.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it about Leavers that makes them turn into Putin fanboys?
Shame on Boris. I hope he didn't find any polyps up there.0 -
Thank goodness he only had to do the 'war' part.AlastairMeeks said:Word counts:
War and Peace: 560,000
Chilcot Report: 2.6 million0 -
Mr. Meeks, there are various editions, but I believe the full versions of both Three Kingdoms and Outlaws of the Marsh are longer than all the Harry Potter books.
Sadly, not well-known enough for such a list, though.0 -
New Hampshire - Dartmouth
Clinton 34 .. Trump 29
Sample 362
http://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/sites/rockefeller.drupalmulti-prod.dartmouth.edu/files/nh_state_of_the_state_2016_report.pdf0 -
I wonder if The Decline and the Fall of the Roman Empire is longer than the Chilcott report. Hmm.0
-
Haven't you heard the great conspiracy theory? Apparently if Chilcot drags Blair and Mandelson's names through the mud it will do immeasurable damage to Remain, so Chilcot has been leant on by Cameron and Brussels.JackW said:0 -
Maybe History will conclude both were written by a Gibbon.Morris_Dancer said:I wonder if The Decline and the Fall of the Roman Empire is longer than the Chilcott report. Hmm.
0 -
Straight for the bin.JackW said:New Hampshire - Dartmouth
Clinton 34 .. Trump 29
Sample 362
http://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/sites/rockefeller.drupalmulti-prod.dartmouth.edu/files/nh_state_of_the_state_2016_report.pdf0 -
The Chilcot report will have something for everyone - and thus no one.AlastairMeeks said:Henry Mance @henrymance · 11m11 minutes ago
Word counts:
War and Peace: 560,000
King James Bible: 780,000
Harry Potter books: 1.1 million
Chilcot Report: 2.6 million
h/t @PickardJE0 -
I see Jack Straw is all over the media this pm. Is he on some kind of charm offensive pre-Chilcot? Saw Paddy Ashdown earlier putting the boot into Boris. They just never go away these "senior" politicians do they? They just hang around like a bad smell. Why do they think anyone is remotely interested in anything they have to say?0
-
Some poor sods are going to be tasked with speed reading that...David_Evershed said:
The Chilcot report will have something for everyone - and thus no one.AlastairMeeks said:Henry Mance @henrymance · 11m11 minutes ago
Word counts:
War and Peace: 560,000
King James Bible: 780,000
Harry Potter books: 1.1 million
Chilcot Report: 2.6 million
h/t @PickardJE0 -
Now you are up to something.SeanT said:The only conclusion one can draw from Cameron's risky, premature, overcooked and oddly faltering statement today is that private polling has caused an outbreak of political dysentery at Number 10.
They're scared.
I had the same feeling when Ted Cruz first rushed an alliance with Kasich, then named Fiorina as his VP, and then rushed Governor Pence for his endorsement.
His Indiana internal polls would have been horrendous, and indeed they were.0 -
When someone points to a conspiracy theory in an attempt to rubbish it, one is meant to suggest an entirely unlikely scenario...0
-
We might be very interested in what Straw has to say when Chilcot comes out.LadyBucket said:I see Jack Straw is all over the media this pm. Is he on some kind of charm offensive pre-Chilcot? Saw Paddy Ashdown earlier putting the boot into Boris. They just never go away these "senior" politicians do they? They just hang around like a bad smell. Why do they think anyone is remotely interested in anything they have to say?
0 -
It's an absolute disgrace that the Chilcot report is so long. The idea is to form judgements, not to provide compendia of views. Just because we have the word processing power doesn't mean that we should use it.0
-
More than scared. Throwing insults at Gove today really is the last straw.SeanT said:The only conclusion one can draw from Cameron's risky, premature, overcooked and oddly faltering statement today is that private polling has caused an outbreak of political dysentery at Number 10.
They're scared.
I suspect DC knows the game is up. Polling might either showing 60+% of the Tory party vote will break for Leave or the actual referendum is leaning Leave.
If the former, he has destroyed his party, if the latter, he has entirely ballsed up the renegotiation strategy.0 -
Anything is more possible than Chilcot actually needing so much time to write his report.Stark_Dawning said:
Haven't you heard the great conspiracy theory? Apparently if Chilcot drags Blair and Mandelson's names through the mud it will do immeasurable damage to Remain, so Chilcot has been leant on by Cameron and Brussels.JackW said:0 -
Is that sample 362 million?JackW said:New Hampshire - Dartmouth
Clinton 34 .. Trump 29
Sample 362
http://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/sites/rockefeller.drupalmulti-prod.dartmouth.edu/files/nh_state_of_the_state_2016_report.pdf0 -
Agree entirely.AlastairMeeks said:It's an absolute disgrace that the Chilcot report is so long. The idea is to form judgements, not to provide compendia of views. Just because we have the word processing power doesn't mean that we should use it.
0 -
Apologies but I haven't had my briefing from Finchley Road on the issue.Stark_Dawning said:
Haven't you heard the great conspiracy theory? Apparently if Chilcot drags Blair and Mandelson's names through the mud it will do immeasurable damage to Remain, so Chilcot has been leant on by Cameron and Brussels.JackW said:0 -
Paddy Ashdown.. which one was he again ? and is that Hatty I see the other side of Dave joining the leftie jamboree ?LadyBucket said:I see Jack Straw is all over the media this pm. Is he on some kind of charm offensive pre-Chilcot? Saw Paddy Ashdown earlier putting the boot into Boris. They just never go away these "senior" politicians do they? They just hang around like a bad smell. Why do they think anyone is remotely interested in anything they have to say?
0 -
So is modern history, Mr. D., just that we tend not to go in for blinding political opponents. All the rest is there: Heroic chaps and great battles I can give you bucket loads just from WWII, likewise treachery, woe and doom. People are people, the human instincts and behaviours 2,000 year ago are not very different from those we see now, only the context has changed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, there are *lots* of interesting bits.
Classical history is full of heroic chaps, great battles, treachery, woe and doom.0 -
The report is ready and complete. Chilcott and Cameron have agreed on a date after the referendum. The question then follows is why?Stark_Dawning said:
Haven't you heard the great conspiracy theory? Apparently if Chilcot drags Blair and Mandelson's names through the mud it will do immeasurable damage to Remain, so Chilcot has been leant on by Cameron and Brussels.JackW said:
0 -
Mr. Llama, perhaps. I can see why people like tanks, although elephants must surely be more exciting.
Incidentally, was idly browsing and saw this recently (History of War in 100 Battles): https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0007452500/
Quite a nice selection, going by the contents. Mix of ancient and modern. Only a few pages each. Nice to see Leuctra in there (the battle where the Thebans under Epaminondas first used the oblique order to smash the Spartans).0 -
IF the story is true. It must have had a neutron star's worth of whitewash hosed over it.David_Evershed said:
It will have been redacted before the NatSec checks.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: PM welcomes fact Chilcot published on July 6th "without need for any redactions" after two weeks of natsec checks https://t.co/qDuEQAtfcb
0 -
Because it's guaranteed to dominate the media for a while and will distract from the campaign. There's no need to look for conspiracies.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The report is ready and complete. Chilcott and Cameron have agreed on a date after the referendum. The question then follows is why?Stark_Dawning said:
Haven't you heard the great conspiracy theory? Apparently if Chilcot drags Blair and Mandelson's names through the mud it will do immeasurable damage to Remain, so Chilcot has been leant on by Cameron and Brussels.JackW said:0 -
Referendum first then Chilcott...time to digest both at leisure..and who really gives a sh$t0
-
LOLHurstLlama said:
What do you mean in five years from now? OK, I was never taken on the great snake oil salesman and had him marked down as a charlatan long before his election in 1997 but should you be sad enough to look at my posts on here on the run-up to the 2010 GE you will find me a big Cameron supporter. Now I wouldn't piss in his ear if his brain was on fire, that Mr. Nabavi, who I respect immensely, considers Cameron one of the great post-war prime ministers is beyond my comprehension.runnymede said:
In wonder if, five years from now, he will have outdone his hero Tony Blair in terms of becoming a despised and discredited figure. ....Indigo said:
EU Commissioner ? Be an appropriate reward if he "docks the UK with the EU".... can't think where that phrase came fromrunnymede said:He must be very confident about whatever future he has planned after politics, btw.
you're in full flow Mr Llama
I must admit I have been amazed at just how low Cameron will sink to win this vote. The daft thing is of course he won't lance the boil, becasue he hasn't had a truthful debate. He has simply stoked the fires of people believing they have been short changed.0
