politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost
One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections.
Comments
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Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!0 -
Dream on, Remain loser!0
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Like.MarqueeMark said:Dream on, Remain loser!
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There's a Y in Thursday 23rd June. That's why Brexit won't win.0
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Sky News has learnt that the Prime Minister and "senior members of the Cabinet" are expected to attend an event organised by the World Economic Forum (WEF) this month where he will tell business leaders that the economic case for remaining in Europe is overwhelming.
http://news.sky.com/story/1692499/cameron-risks-row-over-eu-campaign-event
Only pro-European Union (EU) ministers are initially likely to be invited to attend the event, Westminster sources said on Sunday, meaning that depending upon its cost it could be regarded as campaign activity intended to promote the case against leaving the EU.0 -
Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.0
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C4, the Durrells is on ITV right nowSunil_Prasannan said:Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.
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An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7293979151359508480 -
London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.0
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For the London Yougov poll (predicted 60:40 to Khan): 140 of 1017 of the weighted sample (13.8%) and 62 of 201 absolutely certain to vote (30.8%) were over 65.
By contrast the most recent national Yougov poll for the EU ref (42:41 to Leave): 347 of 1650 of the weighted sample (21%) and 70 of 228 absolutely certain to vote (30.7%) were over 65.
The difference was that Leave had a lead had a 30% lead with the over 65s, a 10% lead with the over 50s and were only 9% behind with the 25-49 age group.
By contrast, in London, Khan had a 4% lead with the over 50s, a 30% lead with the 25-49 age group, and a 44% lead with the 18-24s.
Put simply, the few oldies in London were just overwhelmed.0 -
Could it be that the over 65s are disproportionately white British, with younger age groups being more ethnically diverse. The age comparison may well be implicitly an ethnic comparison. If so the outcome is not that surprising.0
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Personally, I think Remain is relying on a good turnout of ABs in their 30s and 40s (forget those in their 20s, apart from the politically engaged few) and a very heavy turnout of ABC1s in London, the South-East, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and metropolitan cities like Manchester, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge, to overcome the over 50s.
Will it be enough?
Dunno, but that's why it will be close.0 -
FTPT
There is as much, if not more, fantasy thinking to get Trump to the Whitehouse as there was to deny him the nomination.rcs1000 said:
I think equating strength in the primary with strength in the general is a sure fire way to lose money. Let's not forget, Wyoming was one of Obama's strongest states in 2008, and was - fair to say - not in contest in November of that year.LondonBob said:Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
Trying to equate the electoral population of the Primaries and the General Election to determine where a candidate will be strong is the quickest way to the poorhouse I could imagine.
And I say this as someone who's two Scottish Election tips were complete busts.0 -
If Trumps Favourability or Clinton Head-to-Heads start improving I'll alter my point of view, but as of now it is a Dem blow out.0
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@PpollingNumbers
RCP average had
Clinton 49.4%
Trump 38.9%
Clinton +10.5% a month ago.
Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%0 -
"These are the people who campaign on fear"...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7293979151359508480 -
But it is correct, isn't it ? When is Mme. Le Pen visiting our shores ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7293979151359508480 -
No Putin?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
Personally, I think this might be good for getting Remain donations from europhile centrists, and the soft-Left. However, given nearly half the population back Brexit, including mainstream British politicians, it risks insulting the wider electorate, and firming up soft Leavers, if given greater air.
I think Remain are in danger of making the same mistakes Yes2AV did.0 -
Why are you for LEAVE ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!0 -
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Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
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Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting0
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Heey did you get my pm?Sunil_Prasannan said:Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.
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Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?0 -
They have been in chaos since Osborne' s budget and have been distracted by the referendum. I expect that in just over six weeks we will see a very different cabinet, irrespective of the result, and the government to turn it's attention to governing. The Autumn will be very interesting to see how the political landscape changes as it is certain it will be very different from todaysurbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?0 -
What rubbish, what does the woeful campaign of Crosby and London returning to normal voting behaviour after 8 years of Boris have to do with the EU ref. ?0
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I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
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I'm for Leave too.surbiton said:
Why are you for LEAVE ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
For the basic reason that the EU has failed in economic and social terms, the future is out there and it's not european.0 -
Pretty desperate straw clutching, this thread header0
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The UK is a whole lot different than the metropolitan elite who think London is all that mattersSpeedy said:What rubbish, what does the woeful campaign of Crosby and London returning to normal voting behaviour after 8 years of Boris have to do with the EU ref. ?
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Vote remain to ensure Gerry Adams and the rest of the murderers in the IRA can continue to rort EU taxpayers0
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rort ?asjohnstone said:Vote remain to ensure Gerry Adams and the rest of the murderers in the IRA can continue to rort EU taxpayers
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On topic.
London <> Britain.
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The Conservatives didn't do especially badly for a governing party. They performed, relative to the Opposition, as well as they did in 1984, and as Labour did in 2002. Nobody thought Neil Kinnock or Iain Duncan Smith would go on to win the subsequent general election.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?0 -
A year or two ago we used to have article after article on why the conservatives couId not win a majority at the GE....0
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General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.
If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.0 -
Not at this stage of the ParliamentSpeedy said:
General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.
If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.0 -
As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7293979151359508480 -
You need to be more inquisitive when it comes to this type of retweet. Last month was her high point against Trump since last August when he was in the beginning of his rise as a candidate. The "momentum" if such exists is on her side since she is doing much better now than in September-March.Plato_Says said:@PpollingNumbers
RCP average had
Clinton 49.4%
Trump 38.9%
Clinton +10.5% a month ago.
Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%0 -
Any LD recovery will probably hit the Tories first, this years Locals reflect that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at this stage of the ParliamentSpeedy said:
General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.
If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.0 -
Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy0
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Remain has already argued that BREXIT would destroy the planet - the global economy is small beer after that.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
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Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli0
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I don't think BAFTA have had the memo to rein back on the whole multiculturism, political correctness thing...0
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I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.0 -
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
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"Whilst London might not be representative of the United Kingdom"
Says all that needs saying about how interesting these findings are.
As an aside, one piece from Scotland on error margins with final polls;
Yougov (net): SNP+1.5%: Lab -0.6%: Con -3.0%: LD -0.8%: Others +2.9%
Ipsos (phone): SNP+4.5%: Lab -3.6%: Con -4.0%: LD -1.8%: Others +4.9%
a) Net more accurate than phone.
b) Arrange them in left/right blocs and they suddenly become a lot more accurate;0 -
Plenty of people (eg Watford, Eastleigh, and Three Rivers) vote Conservative at Parliamentary level and Lib Dem at local council level.Speedy said:
Any LD recovery will probably hit the Tories first, this years Locals reflect that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at this stage of the ParliamentSpeedy said:
General fatigue and incompetence of the government, the EU ref. is simply exacerbating it.surbiton said:Since 2012 was considered by all to have been Ed Miliband's high watermark and since this time in 2016, Labour's performance is virtually identical [ -19 in Councillors + Mayoralty gains ], the question needs to be asked:
Why did the Tories do so badly ? Is it because of the EU ref ?
As a result there is a trickle of ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE returning back to the LD's.
If it starts to be reflected in the opinion polls Tim Farron will be very happy, and Tory MP's in Cornwall would have to start getting worried.0 -
I actually use 2 metrics for the Hillary-Trump race on a national level, the Gallup favourables tracking poll, and the IPSOS-Reuters tracking poll.EPG said:
You need to be more inquisitive when it comes to this type of retweet. Last month was her high point against Trump since last August when he was in the beginning of his rise as a candidate. The "momentum" if such exists is on her side since she is doing much better now than in September-March.Plato_Says said:@PpollingNumbers
RCP average had
Clinton 49.4%
Trump 38.9%
Clinton +10.5% a month ago.
Today Clinton leads Trump by 6.5%
Trump's collapse in favourables and voting share coincided with the start of the NeverTrump after the Nevada caucus. It dragged down not only Trump but the entire Republican party down in the polls.
Since the Wisconsin primary Trump is slowing recovering in both metrics, but it's a very slow recovery.0 -
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.0 -
Think he is delusional full stopPlato_Says said:Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli
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I mentioned last year (before his infamous U-Turn) that Tsipras is a committed pro-EU ideologue, so much is his belief that europe can be transformed into a euro-communist paradise that it blinded him from the realities of today, and doomed him to failure and ridicule.Plato_Says said:Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli
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If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting
Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.
It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.
That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.0 -
The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.
That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.
London is an outlier. An abnormality.
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Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Sean_F said:
As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/729397915135950848
and Ken Livingstone.Sean_F said:
As opposed to Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, George Osborne and Gerry Adams favouring Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is an interesting line Remainers are pushing, this is the email Remain have sent me in the last hourRoger said:An interesting article on the Referendum by Nick Cohen posted by Carlotta earlier. For those who missed it
http://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/may/07/eu-referendum-brexiteers-trust-in-paranoia-and-mendacity-nick-cohen?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7293979151359508480 -
Lolz. Hard to top the fear angle with this:Scott_P said:h
https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/7293057499486330880 -
Check your inbox!nunu said:
Heey did you get my pm?Sunil_Prasannan said:Paul Merton's Secret Stations on ITV right now.
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Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.0 -
FPT list of Trump insulted groups:
Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.0 -
That is about the as enlightening & honest as the rest of debate so far.Scott_P said:0 -
I think if you take the wider conservative base and include Scotland you may find that David Cameron represents the majority though it would be closeCasino_Royale said:
If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting
Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.
It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.
That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.0 -
I was born outside the UK AND the EU!chestnut said:The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.
That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.
London is an outlier. An abnormality.
But, BUT, I'm voting LEAVE
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Catholics are actually the most committed Trump supporters, they formed the bedrock of his victories in the N.E.EPG said:FPT list of Trump insulted groups:
Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.
Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans seem to like Trump's brash character.0 -
Well we used to have interest rates of 10% in the 1980s when we were IN the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
Before we went into the EU interest rates were about 3%0 -
Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 millionCasino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Sean Fear calculates the centre-right breaks 3:1 for Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think if you take the wider conservative base and include Scotland you may find that David Cameron represents the majority though it would be closeCasino_Royale said:
If this campaign were fought on normal party lines, with a neutral "make your own mind up" PM/HMG, I'd expect Leave to win by at least 60:40.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sadiq Khan's victory in London and Ruth Davidson in Scotland are big moments in the referendum. Sadiq Khan will be very firmly remain and will fight to keep London in. Ruth Davidson and all the main party leaders in Scotland are also going to unite and campaign for remain. Leanne Wood and Labour will do likewise for Wales. With the government booklets going out to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland this week the referendum goes up several notches and I believe that leave will have a much wider front to fight against than just blue on blue. It is going to get very interesting
Remain were always going to have the Guardianistas, Greens, the nationalist Left, public sector unionised employees, intelligentsia, third sector, media and arts world, and the internationalists in the bank.
It's the fact that a Tory PM has come out so strongly for Remain that's made this close: he's confused his own natural support base, and taken at least a good third of them with him.
That's why this is possibly not far off a (slightly weighted) coin flip shot.
Personally, I think the Tory vote will end up splitting something like 55:45 for Brexit, but I think Tory sympathies for Brexit go much wider than that: two Tory voting friends of mine want to vote Leave, but may end up extremely reluctant Remainers (or abstaining) because they are worried. But they have both told me they really want to tell "Brussels" where to go.
Obviously, I am working on them :-)0 -
I don't see how it will be a problem - even when corrected it sounds an awful lot going to waste.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 millionCasino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Interesting to see Vote Leave have sold out of NHS leaflets. I heard a work colleague the other day argue that if we were to leave the EU we would be able to build countless hospitals.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Are Catholics a big part of the Republican electorate in the north-east? We need to distinguish states from their parties. Like, there are lots of black people in Trump's strongest southern states, but that doesn't imply...Speedy said:
Catholics are actually the most committed Trump supporters, they formed the bedrock of his victories in the N.E.EPG said:FPT list of Trump insulted groups:
Oh, I forgot to mention that Trump also went out of his way to insult the Pope.
Anti-Catholicism is the easy, acceptable bigotry but if he wanted to win white-ethnic Democrats and mitigate damage among Hispanics, he shouldn't have taken the bait. Clever Pope.
Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans seem to like Trump's brash character.0 -
Well he's learning at least. Even for the various EuroCrises, Greece's strategy in that one was insane.Plato_Says said:Tsipras admits he 'may have been delusional' over his negotiating strategy with the Eurozone in H1 2015. #Greece #vouli
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When we have a debate - LEAVE can say - this debate will last 2 hours. In that time we have had to pay the EU £4 million gross.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Rates will rise to defend the pound and probably on an exit vote fairly soon afterSpeedy said:
Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.0 -
I'd never have guessed you were a BeLeaverSunil_Prasannan said:
I was born outside the UK AND the EU!chestnut said:The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.
That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.
London is an outlier. An abnormality.
But, BUT, I'm voting LEAVE
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He's a nutcase.Plato_Says said:0 -
It would be refreshing to see both sides quote accurate information when it is known and in the public domainkle4 said:
I don't see how it will be a problem - even when corrected it sounds an awful lot going to waste.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 millionCasino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
I thought we wanted a weaker pound to encourage exports.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rates will rise to defend the pound and probably on an exit vote fairly soon afterSpeedy said:
Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.0 -
Have we reached peak ridiculous?Plato_Says said:0 -
Since this is a Brexit thread, let's remind ourselves that the Greek debt crisis is about to kick off again since we're about to reach the point on the road where the can was kicked to last year.
It looks like the EU is gearing up to repeat its waterboarding of Greece of last summer, going far beyond what the IMF considers achievable. If so then in the UK attitudes towards the EU on the left could start to shift away from the Remain camp. It'll serve as a reminder that this supposedly cosy internationalist club is not quite what it's being painted to be by the Labour IN campaign. The main issue is timing and whether a lid can be kept on this until July, allowing the UK June referendum to pass out of the way first.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/08/rioters-take-to-the-streets-ahead-of-greek-austerity-vote
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Yes, because of the rebate and money reallocated by the EU to UK regions, which we don't control directly, of course, but, it's a bit like Osborne's figure: he's happy if people keep talking about and debating it, and so are Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Leave are going to have a problem with the gross 350 million weekly saving they keep quoting. Michael Gove repeated it today to be corrected by Marr. I believe the figure is nearer 190 millionCasino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.0 -
Brussels are trying to keep reporting of the latest round of the Greek debt crisis to a minimum until after the referendum has passed.Wulfrun_Phil said:Since this is a Brexit thread, let's remind ourselves that the Greek debt crisis is about to kick off again since we're about to reach the point on the road where the can was kicked to last year.
It looks like the EU is gearing up to repeat its waterboarding of Greece of last summer, going far beyond what the IMF considers achievable. If so then in the UK attitudes towards the EU on the left could start to shift away from the Remain camp. It'll serve as a reminder that this supposedly cosy internationalist club is not quite what it's being painted to be by the Labour IN campaign. The main issue is timing and whether a lid can be kept on this until July, allowing the UK June referendum to pass out of the way first.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/08/rioters-take-to-the-streets-ahead-of-greek-austerity-vote0 -
This is what the low-information-voter strategy looks like when you're on the well-informed receiving end... Not a nice feeling.MP_SE said:
Have we reached peak ridiculous?Plato_Says said:0 -
0
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UK aid to India, 2015: £279,000,000weejonnie said:
When we have a debate - LEAVE can say - this debate will last 2 hours. In that time we have had to pay the EU £4 million gross.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, Leave need to be careful of that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that savings from the EU budget are going to be stretched a long wayCasino_Royale said:
I think Leave need to neuter this line though.MP_SE said:
I believe most defined contribution pension plans are invested in global balanced funds. Unless Remain are going to argue that Brexit would destroy the global economy I cannot see how it would work.Casino_Royale said:
Remain will very heavily attack pensions over the next 6 weeks.Sean_F said:London's political preferences are quite unrepresentative of the country as a whole, so that is cold comfort for Remain.
If they have sense, I'd expect them to pledge to maintain the triple-lock throughout the transition period, up to GE2020, and then indicate the potential for a more generous pensions settlement with both savings from the EU budget, and from long-term growth from global trade deals.
The obvious counter-punch from Remain is a leaflet/poster showing how those savings have been committed many times over - e.g. NHS/schools/pensions.
But, confusion alone will still neuter the attack line because most will just disbelieve both sides, and discount it.
UK aid to the EU (net amount), 2015: £8,500,000,0000 -
The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..Casino_Royale said:0 -
I'm still wiping away tears of laughter hereweejonnie said:
He's a nutcase.Plato_Says said:0 -
If the telegraph are not egging it bearing in mind they are pro leave then yes and I say this as a remainerMP_SE said:
Have we reached peak ridiculous?Plato_Says said:0 -
Churchill in his 1946 Zurich speech said Britain should be "friends" with the new Europe. He didn't say we should be part of it.Plato_Says said:
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html0 -
BREXIT = rate cut imo. The Authorities would want to demonstrate that they intended to cushion the economy from the initial shock waves.Speedy said:
Rates are not going to rise as long as there is deflation, you need inflation rates to rise way above 2% while GDP growth is healthy to see a rise in rates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rise in mortgage cost. Both my children have expressed concern that leaving may cause rates to risePlato_Says said:Osborne unwittingly comes up with good reason to vote Leave https://t.co/t17PaxIjXy
I don't think we are going to see neither in today's world of low investment and low demand regardless of the EU ref. outcome.0 -
I honestly can't believe I just read that.runnymede said:
The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..Casino_Royale said:
I am sitting here with my mouth aghast.0 -
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David Cameron's warning seems fair enough. There's at least one aggressive militaristic leader who would be delighted to be able to foment disunity and take further military action if the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, if it happened, Leavers would deny any connection with their referendum-inspired isolationism.0 -
He's a Fake.weejonnie said:
He's a nutcase.Plato_Says said:0 -
Ah yes, the Australio-Hong Kong border, a well known flash pointSpeedy said:
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chestnut said:
The Parliamentary Briefing on migration claims that 37% of the people living in London were not born in the UK, with over 25% born outside the EU.
That's roughly five times as many as most UK regions.
London is an outlier. An abnormality.
And they don't get to vote in the referendum anyway.
0 -
Perhaps you're similarly aghast to what Leaver Tory MP Julian Lewis has also said on that same front page?Casino_Royale said:
I honestly can't believe I just read that.runnymede said:
The PM continues to treat the voters as morons..Casino_Royale said:
I am sitting here with my mouth aghast.0
