Undefined discussion subject.

Good morning, everyone.

If that's the result, it'll be interesting to see what the prevailing story is.

Tories largest party at Holyrood in 2021?

The story of these elections would be the SNP losing their majority at Holyrood.

Apologies but ARSE4EU will be AWOL this morning ....

According to her ladyship !! ...

If Nick Palmer is right and Jeremy Corbyn is a net positive in London we should see significant gains for Labour on the GLA today.

Sad to see Labour's decline continue in a Scotland that is clearly moving centre right, but the Union feels a touch safer this morning.

@ScottyNational: News : Glasgow to change name from YesCity to MaybeNotCity

Roaring...

@gwpurnell: Looking forward to less timid policy from SNP on land & local taxation issues. Green/SNP cooperation now vital to push things through.

That's the new SNP plan. Make the Greens their bitch.

Aye, right.

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

I cannot see it. She is enjoying herself too much in Scotland.

I can see her endorsement mattering to the final two candidates though.

SeanT said:

If Scotland does polarize long term as left/SNP/Indy versus right/Tory/unionist then that could spell extinction for SLAB. With all that this means down south...

The SNP will need Tory votes to get its tax-cutting budget through.

Down South hard-left Labour is irrelevant whatever happens in Scotland.

Some reflections:

Middle class metropolitans prefer Corbyn to Cameron

England and Wales results are dependent upon from whom UKIP takes wwc votes

Scotland - the SNP now have a divided opposition

None of the political parties are popular

Mr. D, I concur.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

A Scottish PM would certainly be focussed on keeping the union together!

Are the LDs going to be behind the Greens in Scotland despite good result in constituency votes? Guess the fight back is not a full throttle one.

Overall, though I understand the reasons many think a result which allows Corbyn to carry on is ultimately worse than one so bad it forces him out, apart from Scotland, things really don't look that bad on the face of it. Faces can be misleading, they should be doing better, but with a huge London win to look forward to, and England and Wales not disasters (at least, not obviously even to layman disasters) he's fine and the party might avoid a narrative developing.

Great result for the Tories in Scotland and for Ruth Davidson, dreadful result for Labour and while the SNP have won they will be short of a majority on about 46% on the constituency ballot 42% on the list, well short of the 60% they were polling in the autumn. They will have to do a deal with the Greeens.
In the locals not great for Labour but not as bad as it could have been and UKIP making progress. Labour hold on comfortably in Wales, their best results of the night. Corbyn really needs to win the London mayoral and assembly elections later though

kle4 said:

Are the LDs going to be behind the Greens in Scotland despite good result in constituency votes? Guess the fight back is not a full throttle one.

Overall, though I understand the reasons many think a result which allows Corbyn to carry on is ultimately worse than one so bad it forces him out, apart from Scotland, things really don't look that bad on the face of it. Faces can be misleading, they should be doing better, but with a huge London win to look forward to, and England and Wales not disasters (at least, not obviously even to layman disasters) he's fine and the party might avoid a narrative developing.

It looks like Carry On Corbyn.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hubris Klaxon.

The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.

Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

A bit more secure is not very secure. But if the SNP has lost its majority it can't spend the next five years doing nothing but agitating for a new referendum. It would mean there is no mandate for the triggers it listed in its manifesto.

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

FPT @southamobserver

I know you've been legendarily open-minded about his Jezness throughout his tenure, but if you don't mind me saying, your London success requirement seems quite a carefully crafted test. From what I can see so far we have the following

- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there)
- moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough
- better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator
- likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success

On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

rottenborough said:

Watson: "Corbyn needs more time."

So do prisoners...

So it's already been a successful night at the bookies, but the winnings are nothing compared to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the Zoomers...

@WingsScotland: @BitidhFreebird Good for you. You just killed independence for a generation.

RobD said:

I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.

Ditto, on both counts.

RobD said:

I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.

Job's not done for her I think.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Greens should be taken out and shot.

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Greens should be taken out and shot.

You can't have a jubilee every year.

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.

Agreed. It would be incredibly bad politics to yank the first Tory to make 'Leader of the Opposition' in Scotland down to Westminster so soon.

She's only 37. She should have at least another 5 years to enjoy the role that she's won and try and build upon it.

After that though...

She should get out whilst ahead, it will not happen again.

Scotland has voted overwhelmingly for parties that favour tax cuts over tax rises. It is now clearly the most centre right part of the UK. That is very amusing, unless you are at the bottom of the ladder there.

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Greens should be taken out and shot.

Morning Malc! You'll be pleased to know that the five-yearly search for Scottish Tories has been completed. You may be less pleased at the result

malcolmg said:

noisywinter said:

When will we know if the SNP have an overall majority?

Thanks to Mr Meeks for his 8/1 NOM tip yesterday!

No hope now , it will be NOM , hard to believe how thick people in Scotland are, obviously masochists.

Or perhaps understandably nervous about Scot

another_richard said:

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

Now you are being a bit unfair Richard. We all know the Tories i

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hubris Klaxon.

The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.

Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

It makes it safer to vote for Brexit.

Yes, that will be a poser for the EU fans at CCHQ. Are they happy or sad now?

RobD said:

another_richard said:

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.

Shock horror, inconvenient fact punctures bluster balloon.

The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hubris Klaxon.

The Union seems a bit more secure than it did 24 hours ago.

Has Ruth Davidson killed Scottish Nationalism stone dead?

Can you get any more stupid , that is below the level I would expect from Scott. Did you not previously pretend to be clever on here rather than a thick turnip.

Is there a projected national vote ?

Scott_P said:

So it's already been a successful night at the bookies, but the winnings are nothing compared to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the Zoomers...

@WingsScotland: @BitidhFreebird Good for you. You just killed independence for a generation.

I thought 2014's vote killed indie for a generation

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Ruth won her seat by 610 votes with the green candidate getting 4600 votes.

The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.

Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.

another_richard said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.

Shock horror, inconvenient fact punctures bluster balloon.

The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.

Equivalent GE would be this one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987

At least the Tories still had a majority.

Scott_P said:

@journodave: 'Scotland's more left wing. Scotland wants to be like Scandinavia. Scots don't mind paying more tax' is that right, aye? #SP16

Only in the minds of right wing dullards like you.

Wales should finish Lab 28, Plaid 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, Lib Dem 1.

another_richard said:

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

To put a different context on it though, the Tory Party have been pretty much flatlining in Scotland since 1997 (almost 20 years) and have been the third party since the creation of the Scottish Parliament.

To show very good signs of recovery from that position is nothing short of remarkable. It is not long since people were confidently predicting that the Tory Party was dying out in Scotland and would dwindle down to pretty much nothing.

Morris_Dancer said:

Two completely irrelevant things:
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].

What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).

Hookah?

Scott_P said:

@journodave: 'Scotland's more left wing. Scotland wants to be like Scandinavia. Scots don't mind paying more tax' is that right, aye? #SP16

Denmark and Finland have centre right governments, Sweden a populist rightwing party on rise, Scotland still has a centre left party as its largest just a centre right party now the main opposition

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Two completely irrelevant things:
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].

What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).

Hookah?

Which you smoke shisha with. Quite enjoyable.

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Greens should be taken out and shot.

Morning Malc! You'll be pleased to know that the five-yearly search for Scottish Tories has been completed. You may be less pleased at the result

Seems the Scottish Tories have been breeding like the Midge.

SLAB? Breeding like the Scottish pandas....

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Two completely irrelevant things:
The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].

What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).

Hookah?

Yes, but you don't drink through them. You inhale tobacco or other smoke passed through water.

I imagine Labour 'winning' the spin war suits the Conservatives just fine. Can't recall the last set of elections that the performance of the Govt of the day was considered such an irrelevance to the commentariat.

Can something be done about the overuse of the "Quote" function on PB? When multiple series of comments build "Quote" mountains, PB becomes almost unreadable. Blocks of dark towering pyramids, each overshadowing the last, obscure the few bright spots of illumination.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Could Davidson become leader? Seems remote and yet...

Is there some kind of path, if Cameron stays on for two years?

There might be a few by elections in Scotland to Westminster.

Ruth can win anywhere in Scotland.

Or if the Crick investigations go anywhere a few by elections in England.

Ruth can win anywhere where the greens put up a candidate to split the Independence vote?

I don't think the Greens can explain an increase in the Tory vote?

Ruth won her seat by 610 votes with the green candidate getting 4600 votes.

The increase in Con votes is because there has been a realignment. Unionist votes are now going to the Conservatives. People getting excited over Ruth's performance seem to be glossing over the perfectly unique circumstances in Scotland. You may as well suggest Sturgeon for Labour because she's popular.

Although I suppose a post EURef environment might produce something similar, in which case Ruth could be the perfect person to lead the Conservatives to second place.

Yes, maybe Ruth snuck through the middle, but I'd argue the Green vote cannot explain the change in the Tory vote share.

Middle class Labour unionists have held their noses and gone Tory rather than vote for independence

another_richard said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

RobD said:

another_richard said:

To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.

In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.

Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.

Shock horror, inconvenient fact punctures bluster balloon.

The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.

Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.

It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.

So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.

Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:

1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory

The polarisation may go further yet if the SNP now get into bed with the Greens. If I were the SNP I would avoid that option like the plague - it could see even more of their softer support peeling off in places like the NE - where, I note, there were some big double-digit SNP to Tory swings even in seats the SNP held.

Artist said:

Roger Scully ‏@roger_scully 7m7 minutes ago
Unless something very unexpected in the final two regions, looking very much: Lab 28, PC 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, LDs 1.

Welsh polls were pretty spot on.

Were they? My recollection is that the election day YouGov showed Labour doing much worse?

malcolmg said:

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

I still think poaching Davidson from Scotland when the revival is still embryonic is a bad idea. I don't even think she'd want it.

Agreed. It would be incredibly bad politics to yank the first Tory to make 'Leader of the Opposition' in Scotland down to Westminster so soon.

She's only 37. She should have at least another 5 years to enjoy the role that she's won and try and build upon it.

After that though...

She should get out whilst ahead, it will not happen again.

You may be right, but then again you said it wouldn't happen in the first place, at the least in respect of her own chances.

Same logic as for chances of Trump or Corbyn, I know, but it has some validity.

Unfortunately the Greens put some root vegetable up on that particular seat for some bizarre reason or not. Obviously out to nobble the SNP and seems to have helped them as they will be the likely lapdogs SNP will need for an overall majority.

It allows the SNP to show how inclusive they are as well, working with their lapdogs.