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  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    He wants to impose racial quotas in the workplace, in what way is that a unifying policy.

    Can we really be assured Kahn will not use the mayoralty to stuff islamist bigots into positions of power?

    The shocking bit is how badly the Tories have played the Mayoral election. Kahn - given his links to extremists, and the calamity that is the Corbyn led labour party - should have been eminently beatable.

    But the enthusiasm for Zac on the Right is utterly non-existent. ("Not good enough for a junior ministerial post, not good enough for London." to quote a card carrying friend of mine.)

    Kahn is going to walk this, sadly.
    His name is Khan.
    Kahn you stop being so pedantic?

    Zac you very much.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Following on from the queue question, this is another angle

    Kurt Volker also pointed out that having free movement in EU is causing the U.S. to rethink immigration from UK as so many Arab, afghani and Syrians now have EU passports...

    The US is currently about to loosen restrictions on EU citizens visiting the US as part of TTIP, so I'm not sure what he's on about.
    According to Andrew Neil, his sources in the states say it is not happening any time soon.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    He wants to impose racial quotas in the workplace, in what way is that a unifying policy.

    Can we really be assured Kahn will not use the mayoralty to stuff islamist bigots into positions of power?

    The shocking bit is how badly the Tories have played the Mayoral election. Kahn - given his links to extremists, and the calamity that is the Corbyn led labour party - should have been eminently beatable.

    But the enthusiasm for Zac on the Right is utterly non-existent. ("Not good enough for a junior ministerial post, not good enough for London." to quote a card carrying friend of mine.)

    Kahn is going to walk this, sadly.
    His name is Khan.
    Dominique Strauss Khan?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    rcs1000 said:

    Following on from the queue question, this is another angle

    Kurt Volker also pointed out that having free movement in EU is causing the U.S. to rethink immigration from UK as so many Arab, afghani and Syrians now have EU passports...

    The US is currently about to loosen restrictions on EU citizens visiting the US as part of TTIP, so I'm not sure what he's on about.
    I didn't hear the interview, but Plato's summary of what he said makes zero sense. For one thing, the biggest problem with Islamic terrorrism in the UK has almost nothing to do with EU passports; it's home-grown and has Pakistani roots in most cases. For another thing, what have passports issued by other EU countries got to do with immigration or visits to the US by UK citizens?
    Possibly that it is too easy for EU citizens to obtain a legitimate British passport? Doesn't really make sense to me either.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    runnymede said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just crunching the data, it looks like Germany accounted for around half of all EMU growth for the quarter in absolute terms. while it is proportionally 29% of the EMU economy. Germany is still hollowing out its neighbours. The monetary policy is going to overheat the German economy like it did with Ireland in 2003-2008.

    I think that is a very real risk. Although it would have the - inadvertent and ultimately rather painful - effect of recalibrating the competitiveness of the periphery through German inflation.
    Before we get too carried away by one quarter's numbers, these were based on only 2 months' data and I suspect may look less impressive when March figures are added. Moreover, there are good reasons for thinking one-off factors pushed activity into Q1 and out of Q2, so...

    March PMIs in Europe were better than February's, so that seems unlikely. See: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0770f9a74b08470d94eb4303a8291cce
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    AndyJS said:

    Depressing stuff http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/refugee-crisis-focus-shifts-to-north-africa-a-1089536.html

    Interesting graphic.

    A Cheap Ticket to Europe

    Migrant smugglers are quick to change routes in response to political policy shifts. Should the traffic get backed up in one area, as in Greece at the moment, other routes are promoted over social media channels. Recently, that has included the Mediterranean crossing from Libya or Egypt to the Italian island of Lampedusa.

    Intelligence agencies are warning that hundreds of thousands of people are now waiting in North Africa for their chance to flee across the sea. Particularly from Libya, the dream of Europe looks closer than ever before: The often inadequately equipped boats put to sea by the migrant smugglers must only leave Libyan territorial waters 12 nautical miles from shore before sending out a distress call. Ships patrolling the waters of the southern Mediterranean as part of the EU operation Sophia must then collect them in accordance with international maritime law. Since September, some 13,000 migrants have been brought to EU territory as a result of this tactic.
    And we had useful idiots on Question Time last night who laughed at the idea that many people in Africa have mobile phones.

    Whatsapp is an app that will run on virtually any smart phone and gives easy many to many communications.

    Forget Facebook, Twitter, Apple or Google I'm nigh on convinced that Whatsapp is the biggest social media factor pull factor enabler for migrants coming from Africa to Europe.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    He wants to impose racial quotas in the workplace, in what way is that a unifying policy.

    Can we really be assured Kahn will not use the mayoralty to stuff islamist bigots into positions of power?

    The shocking bit is how badly the Tories have played the Mayoral election. Kahn - given his links to extremists, and the calamity that is the Corbyn led labour party - should have been eminently beatable.

    But the enthusiasm for Zac on the Right is utterly non-existent. ("Not good enough for a junior ministerial post, not good enough for London." to quote a card carrying friend of mine.)

    Kahn is going to walk this, sadly.
    His name is Khan.
    Dominique Strauss Khan?
    Khan Noonien Singh?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Polruan said:


    [edit: do witchhunts get off the ground in any case?]

    Only if the witches take to their broomsticks. :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    edited April 2016

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36167289

    Eurozone growth picks up to 0.6% in the first quarter.

    How does that compare with the UK?
    Is that annualized growth or quarter on quarter? The US published annualized figures, so they always look good in comparison with UK figures.
    UK and Eurozone are for the quarter, not annualised. If the figures were annualised they would both be lousy.
    Eurozone annualised is 2.4%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    edited April 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Following on from the queue question, this is another angle

    Kurt Volker also pointed out that having free movement in EU is causing the U.S. to rethink immigration from UK as so many Arab, afghani and Syrians now have EU passports...

    The US is currently about to loosen restrictions on EU citizens visiting the US as part of TTIP, so I'm not sure what he's on about.
    According to Andrew Neil, his sources in the states say it is not happening any time soon.
    The TTIP drafts explicity extend the visa waiver programme to countries such as Poland who didn't have it before.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Following on from the queue question, this is another angle

    Kurt Volker also pointed out that having free movement in EU is causing the U.S. to rethink immigration from UK as so many Arab, afghani and Syrians now have EU passports...

    The US is currently about to loosen restrictions on EU citizens visiting the US as part of TTIP, so I'm not sure what he's on about.
    According to Andrew Neil, his sources in the states say it is not happening any time soon.
    The TTIP drafts explicity extend the visa waiver programme to countries such as Poland who didn't have it before.
    Even where the visa waiver programme operates they can exclude individuals based on whatever profiling they like. Some British-Pakistanis have recently found themselves unable to travel to the US only when they turn up at Heathrow.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    Re Q1 GDP, it's worth noting that the leap year effect (one extra day of work) may account for the bulk of Eurozone growth.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited April 2016

    Good question from Andrew Neil on daily politics to former US ambassador to NATO

    How does Remain respond to this?

    By wondering what a former ambassador to NATO knows about trade deals?

    Then by quoting the guy several pay grades above him....

    The thing about diplomats is that they are generalists. The fact that he was NATO ambassador does not mean he knows nothing about trade. The fact that others higher up the chain make statements differing from his does not negate their political reasons for doing so.

    I hope you apply more rigorous analysis to whatever it is you do for a living.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    I spoke to a (non-political) acquaintance today. They had heard the Ken story, and thought it was something to do with him supporting Hitler.

    That's the simple take-away I suspect many will have from this.

  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    I am enjoying the New Politics though.

    All the rules have gone out the window. It's bizarre.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002


    I spoke to a (non-political) acquaintance today. They had heard the Ken story, and thought it was something to do with him supporting Hitler.

    That's the simple take-away I suspect many will have from this.

    The more nuanced take is that Ken only supports his early work.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    I'm very disappointed

    Not a single Labour spinner has come out and claimed they're "learning the lessons".
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Q1 GDP, it's worth noting that the leap year effect (one extra day of work) may account for the bulk of Eurozone growth.

    What about Easter? it was in April in 2015 and March in 2016, will that depress growth in Q2?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904

    I'm very disappointed

    Not a single Labour spinner has come out and claimed they're "learning the lessons".

    That made me laugh!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Distressing some people online insist on seeing this through the prism of their left right axis, the good guys and bad guys. Not everything is entirely tribal even if tribalists are getting involved. That is the thinking of conspiracy loons. If it matters of course all sides do this. Even so, too much denial, and on obvious partisan basis much of the time, even if people on their own side are saying the same as the party opponents.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    edited April 2016
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Q1 GDP, it's worth noting that the leap year effect (one extra day of work) may account for the bulk of Eurozone growth.

    What about Easter? it was in April in 2015 and March in 2016, will that depress growth in Q2?
    That's actually a very good point...

    Edit to add: although consumer spending may well be higher Friday-to-Monday over Easter than normal...
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    He wants to impose racial quotas in the workplace, in what way is that a unifying policy.

    Can we really be assured Kahn will not use the mayoralty to stuff islamist bigots into positions of power?

    The shocking bit is how badly the Tories have played the Mayoral election. Kahn - given his links to extremists, and the calamity that is the Corbyn led labour party - should have been eminently beatable.

    But the enthusiasm for Zac on the Right is utterly non-existent. ("Not good enough for a junior ministerial post, not good enough for London." to quote a card carrying friend of mine.)

    Kahn is going to walk this, sadly.
    His name is Khan.
    Yeah, I'm an idiot.
    More an idtoi.
    A job at the Grauniad awaits.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36167289

    Eurozone growth picks up to 0.6% in the first quarter.

    How does that compare with the UK?
    Is that annualized growth or quarter on quarter? The US published annualized figures, so they always look good in comparison with UK figures.
    UK and Eurozone are for the quarter, not annualised. If the figures were annualised they would both be lousy.

    I think the US' Q1 annualized growth was 0.5%, so pretty lousy. It does put the bed-wetting re the cooling off of the UK's growth rate into perspective, though.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-first-quarter-gdp-advances-at-0-5-pace-1461846715
  • Options
    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited April 2016
    Edited - graph didn't work... will try again.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072

    Hope this comes out... chart showing relative 2000-2016 GDP growth, US/UK/EU

    ChM19q9WwAQ3u-A.jpg

    It does not...
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822


    I spoke to a (non-political) acquaintance today. They had heard the Ken story, and thought it was something to do with him supporting Hitler.

    That's the simple take-away I suspect many will have from this.

    Me too - baffled and Urgh.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904


    I spoke to a (non-political) acquaintance today. They had heard the Ken story, and thought it was something to do with him supporting Hitler.

    That's the simple take-away I suspect many will have from this.

    I think that's quite smart then. Labour supporters aren't that stupid and UKIP supporters might approve
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    I'm very disappointed

    Not a single Labour spinner has come out and claimed they're "learning the lessons".

    First everyone needs to reach agreement about the date on which Hitler's acceptable early work came to an end. There are a lot of views to take into account. Once everyone's had a chance to speak, we'll formulate a lesson that can be learned. #newpolitics
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36167289

    Eurozone growth picks up to 0.6% in the first quarter.

    How does that compare with the UK?
    Is that annualized growth or quarter on quarter? The US published annualized figures, so they always look good in comparison with UK figures.
    UK and Eurozone are for the quarter, not annualised. If the figures were annualised they would both be lousy.

    I think the US' Q1 annualized growth was 0.5%, so pretty lousy. It does put the bed-wetting re the cooling off of the UK's growth rate into perspective, though.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-first-quarter-gdp-advances-at-0-5-pace-1461846715
    Putting my economist hat on for a second, I think the quarterly US GDP growth methodology is broken. This is the third year in a row that 1Q numbers have been very different from the rest of the year; in 1Q14 they even had the US economy shrinking, while in 1Q15, it showed a similar anaemic level of growth.

    Why is this?

    Different quarters contribute different proportions of the year's economic output. GDP growth calculations are supposed to strip this out (seasonal adjustment) and to take account of the different number of days in a period (working day adjustment). But the persistently low level of measured 1Q GDP growth in the US suggests their weightings are simply wrong; how can unemployment be falling, wages rising, the current account deficit narrowing... and GDP be stagnant?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:



    Forget Facebook, Twitter, Apple or Google I'm nigh on convinced that Whatsapp is the biggest social media factor pull factor enabler for migrants coming from Africa to Europe.

    Love the avatar. Who is it? One of the original thoroughbred stallions?
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Polruan said:

    I'm very disappointed

    Not a single Labour spinner has come out and claimed they're "learning the lessons".

    First everyone needs to reach agreement about the date on which Hitler's acceptable early work came to an end. There are a lot of views to take into account. Once everyone's had a chance to speak, we'll formulate a lesson that can be learned. #newpolitics
    The only thing good about Hitler were the Hugo Boss SS uniforms.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Livingstone Says Labour Should Reinstate Him

    http://news.sky.com/story/1687454/livingstone-says-labour-should-reinstate-him

    Hug-A-Hitler, Jahadi Jez and Gorgeous George all having their say on the matter...
  • Options
    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited April 2016
    I am honestly shocked they managed to make the bad headlines last for 3 whole days - but now that I think about it I should have foreseen it like the shambles before it.
    I just hope the rumours about a whips reshuffle are true - but then I may need more popcorn...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36167289

    Eurozone growth picks up to 0.6% in the first quarter.

    How does that compare with the UK?
    Is that annualized growth or quarter on quarter? The US published annualized figures, so they always look good in comparison with UK figures.
    UK and Eurozone are for the quarter, not annualised. If the figures were annualised they would both be lousy.

    I think the US' Q1 annualized growth was 0.5%, so pretty lousy. It does put the bed-wetting re the cooling off of the UK's growth rate into perspective, though.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-first-quarter-gdp-advances-at-0-5-pace-1461846715
    Putting my economist hat on for a second, I think the quarterly US GDP growth methodology is broken. This is the third year in a row that 1Q numbers have been very different from the rest of the year; in 1Q14 they even had the US economy shrinking, while in 1Q15, it showed a similar anaemic level of growth.

    Why is this?

    Different quarters contribute different proportions of the year's economic output. GDP growth calculations are supposed to strip this out (seasonal adjustment) and to take account of the different number of days in a period (working day adjustment). But the persistently low level of measured 1Q GDP growth in the US suggests their weightings are simply wrong; how can unemployment be falling, wages rising, the current account deficit narrowing... and GDP be stagnant?
    Thanks, Robert. Good points. But on the ground the situation does not feel as rosy as 'unemployment be falling, wages rising, the current account deficit narrowing' makes it sound. True, the fear of losing one's job has virtually disappeared, but spending and willingness to incur debt are still at low levels, indicating either that true disposable income has not fully recovered, or that confidence in the future direction of wages and costs is not that good.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Forget Facebook, Twitter, Apple or Google I'm nigh on convinced that Whatsapp is the biggest social media factor pull factor enabler for migrants coming from Africa to Europe.

    Love the avatar. Who is it? One of the original thoroughbred stallions?
    It is Sprinter Sacre, the current 2 mile thoroughbred king who came back from a severe heart condition to regain his title (An exceedingly rare event in horse racing). I watched him win at Cheltenham this year, and he bought the house down with his triumph.
    It was one of the great training feats by his trainer Nicky Henderson of all time.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Q1 GDP, it's worth noting that the leap year effect (one extra day of work) may account for the bulk of Eurozone growth.

    What about Easter? it was in April in 2015 and March in 2016, will that depress growth in Q2?
    That's actually a very good point...

    Edit to add: although consumer spending may well be higher Friday-to-Monday over Easter than normal...
    Having not worked on those stats at ONS I wouldn't know whether Easter is a boost to the economy or not. I have a feeling that the extra spending more than compensates for the lower output of general business - but then I seem to remember the extra bank holiday for the royal wedding in 2011 was cited as a reason why the Q2 GDP figures were not so good.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Following on from the queue question, this is another angle

    Kurt Volker also pointed out that having free movement in EU is causing the U.S. to rethink immigration from UK as so many Arab, afghani and Syrians now have EU passports...

    The US is currently about to loosen restrictions on EU citizens visiting the US as part of TTIP, so I'm not sure what he's on about.
    According to Andrew Neil, his sources in the states say it is not happening any time soon.
    The TTIP drafts explicity extend the visa waiver programme to countries such as Poland who didn't have it before.
    There are 5 countries in the EU that should have visa waiver now and don't, a pissing competition is developing
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-faces-threat-of-losing-eu-visa-waivers-1460120636
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Livingstone Says Labour Should Reinstate Him

    http://news.sky.com/story/1687454/livingstone-says-labour-should-reinstate-him

    Hug-A-Hitler, Jahadi Jez and Gorgeous George all having their say on the matter...

    Patrick Kidd's Hug-A-Hitler meme is one of the funniest and sticky quips we've had in ages. His Times Diary columns/sketches rival Michael Deacon.
  • Options
    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    Didn't Harry Cole leave? Have they replaced him?
    If not then it may even be a 3-man operation...
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    rcs1000 said:


    Kahn is going to walk this, sadly.

    The only solution is to expand the boundaries of Greater London. They've been the same for 50+ years now so surely it's not unreasonable to redraw the capital, perhaps using the M25 as a 'natural' boundary. This would pull in large numbers of mostly Tory voters from Epsom, Caterham, Swanley, Rickmansworth etc. Probably enough to swing the mayorality and a majority in the Assembly once we decide what the new borough boundaries are going to be.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Forget Facebook, Twitter, Apple or Google I'm nigh on convinced that Whatsapp is the biggest social media factor pull factor enabler for migrants coming from Africa to Europe.

    Love the avatar. Who is it? One of the original thoroughbred stallions?
    It is Sprinter Sacre, the current 2 mile thoroughbred king who came back from a severe heart condition to regain his title (An exceedingly rare event in horse racing). I watched him win at Cheltenham this year, and he bought the house down with his triumph.
    It was one of the great training feats by his trainer Nicky Henderson of all time.
    Thanks. We breed sport horses, so we tend to know more about the jumping lines and, to a lesser extent, dressage line (even though TB makes up about 7/8 of our blood lines).
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Pauly said:

    I am honestly shocked they managed to make the bad headlines last for 3 whole days - but now that I think about it I should have foreseen it like the shambles before it.
    I just hope the rumours about a whips reshuffle are true - but then I may need more popcorn...

    With their Diector of Communications track record of revising down gulag numbers, Mr Milne is worth every penny. My £3 is Lidl value on steroids.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pauly said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    Didn't Harry Cole leave? Have they replaced him?
    If not then it may even be a 3-man operation...
    Harry Cole is now in the Lobby for The Sun.

    What chance that any gossip the paper can't stand up ends up on an American-hosted website run by an Irishman out of the Caymans..? Allegedly.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Pauly said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    Didn't Harry Cole leave? Have they replaced him?
    If not then it may even be a 3-man operation...
    Staines said in a very recent interview it is 4 (I think 4 and himself), although Staines himself only works 3 days a week full time on it now.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36167289

    Eurozone growth picks up to 0.6% in the first quarter.

    How does that compare with the UK?
    Is that annualized growth or quarter on quarter? The US published annualized figures, so they always look good in comparison with UK figures.
    UK and Eurozone are for the quarter, not annualised. If the figures were annualised they would both be lousy.

    I think the US' Q1 annualized growth was 0.5%, so pretty lousy. It does put the bed-wetting re the cooling off of the UK's growth rate into perspective, though.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-first-quarter-gdp-advances-at-0-5-pace-1461846715
    Putting my economist hat on for a second, I think the quarterly US GDP growth methodology is broken. This is the third year in a row that 1Q numbers have been very different from the rest of the year; in 1Q14 they even had the US economy shrinking, while in 1Q15, it showed a similar anaemic level of growth.

    Why is this?

    Different quarters contribute different proportions of the year's economic output. GDP growth calculations are supposed to strip this out (seasonal adjustment) and to take account of the different number of days in a period (working day adjustment). But the persistently low level of measured 1Q GDP growth in the US suggests their weightings are simply wrong; how can unemployment be falling, wages rising, the current account deficit narrowing... and GDP be stagnant?
    There is undoubtedly a problem. This time last year there was a lot of discussion about the need to 'double' seasonally adjust the data implying the seasonal adjustment formula had gone awry. The BEA even said they were going to change the calculation methodology to get round the problem.

    And yet here we are again with another very weak Q1 reading.

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.
    Indeed, in a Parliament of 650, it behoves us to have representatives who have suffered most of life's indignities and indiscretions and have since got their lives 'back in order'. I want someone who has been through bankruptcy to be included in policy-making on credit laws. I want someone who understands addiction to be involved in drug policy. And so on ...

    How can someone who has never suffered a major life or career setback truly understand the concerns and worries of most of the electorate?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Off topic: There is a mismatch between the New York Mets price (6-4) and their real chance to win the National League East (50%) as predicted by Nate Silver of 538 fame.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

    @Tissue_Price who again knows his stuff recommended this bet to me in private too (As a hedge to an earlier Nationals tip, but the Mets tip looks to be better value right now...)

    As ever DYOR.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @TheScreamingEagles eal project fear from Nigel Farage.

    Nasty, nasty man, no wonder whenever the people have a chance to elect him as an MP, they reject him every time.

    You really are getting pathetic.

    I listened to the speech and it's a speech the labour party should be making to it's voters,just like your party on immigration,it's a cligue at the top who don't think it's a problem.

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited April 2016
    Ken Livingstone said something which was offensive to some people said founder of Jews for Jezza on BBC News 24.

    https://jewsforjeremy.org/2016/04/

    Unsigned articles on Livingstone, Zionism...
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Q1 GDP, it's worth noting that the leap year effect (one extra day of work) may account for the bulk of Eurozone growth.

    What about Easter? it was in April in 2015 and March in 2016, will that depress growth in Q2?
    That's actually a very good point...

    Edit to add: although consumer spending may well be higher Friday-to-Monday over Easter than normal...
    Having not worked on those stats at ONS I wouldn't know whether Easter is a boost to the economy or not. I have a feeling that the extra spending more than compensates for the lower output of general business - but then I seem to remember the extra bank holiday for the royal wedding in 2011 was cited as a reason why the Q2 GDP figures were not so good.
    They (ONS) probably don't know either, bless them.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2016

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Has Nick 'Momentum' Palmer commented since this has blown up?

    He's been conspicuous by his absence. What I don't understand about the Naz Shah case is, why was she even selected in the first place? Did they not do their due diligence on her? Or did they know full well what she believed in and thought "that's what we need to beat George Galloway?"
    I'm not sure that political parties have the resource to trawl through every candidate's social media history. Black marks are more often flagged up to the parties rather than uncovered by them.
    Like it or not the parties are going to HAVE to get good at this. It has to form part of the PPC Vetting, in fact should be done earlier for council leaders and the like.

    If they don't then opponents and journos to will.

    Remember that 'Guido' is only a 4-man operation with a reputation and good connections.

    In 2020 there will be a whole bunch of PPCs born in the 1990s who have grown up posting their lives online since about 2007.

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.
    Yes. Mensch is actually a really good example, and she was my MP so I researched her. It's never the actions that get you, it's the cover-up and the dishonesty. If she had said she was a goody-two-shoes and been uncovered later as a hendonist she'd have been in trouble, whereas by admitting to being a wild child she was honest and respected. Those who voted for her did so with good knowledge of her character.

    By the way, I thought of this as a quiz question. Which constituency had 4 different MPs between 1/1/2010 and 1/1/2016? Obviously Corby, but are there any others?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Scott_P said:

    On matters astronomical, I do wonder at what point the hole that Livingstone has taken delight in becomes so deep that not even light can escape it.

    Sadly Stephen Hawking is in line for a Nobel prize for his theory that black holes do in fact allow energy to escape
    And probably Livingstone too.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The great irony of this row is that the Left have spent many decades accusing people of being 'racist'. Indeed, it's only been a recent change in mind set that has stopped them from denouncing people with entirely legitimate concerns over mass immigration as 'racists'. They are STILL calling people who question Islamist terrorist sympathisers as 'racists'. At PMQs a few weeks ago, Labour MPs screamed 'racist' to a sitting Prime Minister, because he had the temerity to even question Sadiq Khan's associations. That is the foaming lunacy we have to deal with in the modern Labour party.

    As for Naz Shah, she was only echoing the sentiments of her constituents (as did Galloway before her), and she was part of a MUSLIM ONLY shortlist in a British city. Sorry for her actions? No. Sorry she got caught? Absolutely. The terrifying tip of the iceberg in my opinion. And what of Mr Khan? He can, and he MUST be judged by his previous actions, previous words, and previous (or even existing) associations. He is about to become (tragically) the most powerful Labour politician in the country. He has escaped the scrutiny any other person would have been subjected to because of his identity, and for no other reason.

    If a Prime Minister cannot ask questions about the suitability of a Mayoral candidate because said candidate is non-white, or a Muslim, without being accused of being a 'racist', then the cancer eating into the Labour party is even worse than perhaps we all feared.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    EU Decides: Visa free travel : Turkey<>Schengen

    ..from *6 weeks after* the Ref.

    http://tinyurl.com/hcdweu7

    6 min
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainjwatson: More on #Labour @BBCNews channel at 3 - Carwyn Jones says it would have been seen as detrimental to have Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Wales
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Floater said:
    "How can we keep this story running through the weekend?"

    "I have an idea..."

    @theobertram: Seumas Milne: This slur of anti-semitism is used to defend repression https://t.co/tuqCrITQG9
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.

    But Naz Shah's comments weren't youthful indiscretions, the sort of thing that might be dismissed as the antics of a drunken teenager, they are the postings of a sober adult from only a few years ago. I don't know about other people but I've never posted or made such antisemitic comments. Naz Shah is a bigot, and she has got off very lightly.

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What happens when you ask EU government officials for their private views on Brexit? This. https://t.co/3rptcrQaRD https://t.co/RKHbC22iWS
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    glw said:

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.

    But Naz Shah's comments weren't youthful indiscretions, the sort of thing that might be dismissed as the antics of a drunken teenager, they are the postings of a sober adult from only a few years ago. I don't know about other people but I've never posted or made such antisemitic comments. Naz Shah is a bigot, and she has got off very lightly.

    That wasn't what we were talking about. We were talking about all these future MPs who will have posted nonsense on social media.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    https://uk.celebrity.yahoo.com/nine-sentenced-over-fraud-elderly-linked-bank-terror-041736356.html

    'Following the convictions, it emerged that Jeremy Corbyn, in his role as Islington North MP, had sent a letter in support of Dahir's original successful bail application last May.'

    Jeremy Corbyn's priorities following several convictions after a £900,000 fraud.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Jason said:

    https://uk.celebrity.yahoo.com/nine-sentenced-over-fraud-elderly-linked-bank-terror-041736356.html

    'Following the convictions, it emerged that Jeremy Corbyn, in his role as Islington North MP, had sent a letter in support of Dahir's original successful bail application last May.'

    Jeremy Corbyn's priorities following several convictions after a £900,000 fraud.

    Not again...this isn't the first time he has been supporting some dodgy types in court.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    glw said:

    The best thing a PPC / MP could do is a) delete all their social media and start afresh and b) basically admit "youthful indiscretions" upfront. It is always the cover up / lying that people hate, not well "I tried drugs when I was 19" or whatever. Mensch I seemed to remember taking that approach and it didn't do her any harm.

    But Naz Shah's comments weren't youthful indiscretions, the sort of thing that might be dismissed as the antics of a drunken teenager, they are the postings of a sober adult from only a few years ago. I don't know about other people but I've never posted or made such antisemitic comments. Naz Shah is a bigot, and she has got off very lightly.

    She's 38.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Katie Glueck of "Politico" reports that GOP and Dem insiders in swing states expect Trump to be "crushed" in November with significant down ticket implications :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ken out may be a Labour gain but its a Corbyn loss. His pillars of support are being corroded one by one - soon he will be alone on the battlefield.

    Of course Corbo being turfed out will lead to his acolytes being cleansed from the Labour machine - which should be fun to watch.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    What happens when you ask EU government officials for their private views on Brexit? This. https://t.co/3rptcrQaRD https://t.co/RKHbC22iWS

    Seems a reasonable article.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: More on #Labour @BBCNews channel at 3 - Carwyn Jones says it would have been seen as detrimental to have Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Wales

    could you knock us up a Labour party election poster with

    Vote Adolf Hitler
    Your Labour candidate

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: More on #Labour @BBCNews channel at 3 - Carwyn Jones says it would have been seen as detrimental to have Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Wales

    Shocking when a party leader is seen as an electoral liability in a campaign..
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Scott_P said:

    On matters astronomical, I do wonder at what point the hole that Livingstone has taken delight in becomes so deep that not even light can escape it.

    Sadly Stephen Hawking is in line for a Nobel prize for his theory that black holes do in fact allow energy to escape
    And probably Livingstone too.
    Livingstone up for a Nobel prize, or Livingstone is able to escape black holes?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Will it help?

    .@jeremycorbyn on the campaign trail supporting @sg_hull in Drypool - 42 votes between Labour and LibDems last time. https://t.co/QaZ41pjjpk
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: More on #Labour @BBCNews channel at 3 - Carwyn Jones says it would have been seen as detrimental to have Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Wales

    Welsh labour must be worried about UKIP.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    That wasn't what we were talking about. We were talking about all these future MPs who will have posted nonsense on social media.

    I know, and the point I'm making is this current case of something offensive being found on social media has nothing to do with youthful indiscretions, nor would such comments magically become acceptable just because the poster was young or they were made a long time ago.

    There is a big difference between doing something when you were young that is now politically embarrassing and being a racist.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2016
    JackW said:

    Katie Glueck of "Politico" reports that GOP and Dem insiders in swing states expect Trump to be "crushed" in November with significant down ticket implications :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598

    An interesting snippet from that article:

    “Trump's crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every working class white male Hillary loses she'll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Shocking when a party leader is seen as an electoral liability in a campaign..

    Certainly a problem for the SNP during the Indyref. Eck lost it for them practically single handed
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: More on #Labour @BBCNews channel at 3 - Carwyn Jones says it would have been seen as detrimental to have Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Wales

    could you knock us up a Labour party election poster with

    Vote Adolf Hitler
    Your Labour candidate

    Indeed an authentic Socialist and Workers Party.

    (Just the National and German bits missing but no one will notice)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    JackW said:

    Katie Glueck of "Politico" reports that GOP and Dem insiders in swing states expect Trump to be "crushed" in November with significant down ticket implications :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598

    An interesting snippet from that article:

    “Trump's crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every working class white male Hillary loses she'll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”
    That's interesting, because last night on TYT network they were showing Trump's polling with white women and it was far worse than terrible, and has been getting worse as the campaign has been going on....in contrast Romney won among that demographic easily last time.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: The New York Times has done a deep dive on Ed Balls day: https://t.co/Ahaw9iSXuL
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is helpful :wink:

    http://order-order.com/2016/04/28/khan-on-ken-ken-on-khan/
    Today, for the first time, Sadiq Khan tried to distance himself from the now expelled former Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone. Khan supported Ken, Ken supports Khan. “He’s just like me,” says Livingstone…
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    Naz Shah, interfaith understanding .... There must be some mistake.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Long while to go yet till the General, I wouldn't be counting my chickens if I was Hillary yet.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    glw said:

    That wasn't what we were talking about. We were talking about all these future MPs who will have posted nonsense on social media.

    I know, and the point I'm making is this current case of something offensive being found on social media has nothing to do with youthful indiscretions, nor would such comments magically become acceptable just because the poster was young or they were made a long time ago.

    There is a big difference between doing something when you were young that is now politically embarrassing and being a racist.
    They wouldn't, but I think in the case of Naz Shah, if they had been made when she was 19 and had long since deleted them, should they have arisen from the depth of the wayback machine that is the internet, she would have had a reasonable defence and I think most people would have probably given her the benefit of the doubt.

    In her case though, not only recent, but her employment of a dodgy individual and involvement with a charity that doesn't look very good either.

    I personally don't go around favouriting and liking, but lots of kids today do without much thought really. If they then come to their senses and deleting all the crap and move on, I am willing to give them a break. I guess a good analogy, Alistair Darling had some "youthful interest" in some very dodgy political organisations, but nobody in their right mind thought that was anywhere in his thinking when he was CoE.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    What happens when you ask EU government officials for their private views on Brexit? This. https://t.co/3rptcrQaRD https://t.co/RKHbC22iWS


    The problem with this type of article is that it assumes that the EU will get everything they want out of the negotiations, and that all their signaling on issues at this point is in fact their bottom negotiating line; whereas the assumption is that the UK will have to make all the concessions and is powerless in the face of consolidated European positions. Absolute nonsense, of course. The UK's negotiating position is far stronger than anyone, including ourselves, is prepared to admit.

    None of these issues are set in stone, and a good, nimble negotiator upsets all the rules and can flat-foot inflexible bureaucracies, such as the EU and the Council of Ministers. Alas, we do not seem to have a Putin or Trump in the UK's corner at this point.
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    Why did not Naz Shah delete her offensive social media stuff yonks ago if she was interested in - as Donald bRind states - developing "interfaith understanding"?

    To think she's actually on the Home Affairs Select Committee inquiring into anti-semitism .... what a sickener.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    Scott_P said:

    Shocking when a party leader is seen as an electoral liability in a campaign..

    Certainly a problem for the SNP during the Indyref. Eck lost it for them practically single handed
    So not having Eck will swing the c.190,000 votes we need to win?
    If you say so.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Ken Livingstone says Labour should reinstate him because everything he said about Jewish people "was true"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/29/labour-has-been-too-slow-to-react-to-anti--semitism-allegations/
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    JackW said:

    Katie Glueck of "Politico" reports that GOP and Dem insiders in swing states expect Trump to be "crushed" in November with significant down ticket implications :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598

    An interesting snippet from that article:

    “Trump's crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every working class white male Hillary loses she'll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”
    Voodoo upon voodoo.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2016
    MTimT said:

    The UK's negotiating position is far stronger than anyone, including ourselves, is prepared to admit..

    I cannot imagine how you can possibly argue that. Obviously both sides will agree tariff-free access for manufactured goods, as it is both sides' interests, but what's the incentive on (say) Romania to concede much on anything else?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    AndyJS said:

    "Ken Livingstone says Labour should reinstate him because everything he said about Jewish people "was true"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/29/labour-has-been-too-slow-to-react-to-anti--semitism-allegations/

    Note the formulation 'everything he said about Jewish people'. In his mind he was insinuating that the Zionists were Nazi collaborators, not that he was making a comment about Hitler.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    MTimT said:

    The UK's negotiating position is far stronger than anyone, including ourselves, is prepared to admit..

    I cannot imagine how you can possibly argue that. Obviously both sides will agree tariff-free access for manufactured goods, as it is both sides' interests, but what's the incentive on (say) Roumania to concede much on anything else?
    If freer trade is a regarded as a 'concession' then the economic liberals are in deep trouble.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    JackW said:

    Katie Glueck of "Politico" reports that GOP and Dem insiders in swing states expect Trump to be "crushed" in November with significant down ticket implications :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598

    An interesting snippet from that article:

    “Trump's crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every working class white male Hillary loses she'll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”
    That's interesting, because last night on TYT network they were showing Trump's polling with white women and it was far worse than terrible, and has been getting worse as the campaign has been going on....in contrast Romney won among that demographic easily last time.
    As I said yesterday, I have stopped prognosticating on the US general. Trump has confounded me and the entire political punditry class at every step. Based on my gut and 'electoral logic', I bought into the theory of Trump having a 'ceiling' within the GOP, and that was wrong. Or, even if it's not wrong, a ceiling of 60+% is meaningless.

    Any electoral logic about how women will vote when faced with a choice of Trump vs Hillary is just as likely to be wrong. The fact is everyone is guessing and a lot will change between now and then. Trump may well prove an electoral disaster up and down the ticket. Or he could romp home to victory by bringing into the GOP a whole host of new and switch voters. He and Bernie have certainly brought some much needed energy and excitement into the election to sections of the electorate which have been switched off for ages.

    For now, I am making no forecasts, and I'll view anyone else's forecasts and all polling as entirely suspect.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited April 2016

    MTimT said:

    The UK's negotiating position is far stronger than anyone, including ourselves, is prepared to admit..

    I cannot imagine how you can possibly argue that. Obviously both sides will agree tariff-free access for manufactured goods, as it is both sides' interests, but what's the incentive on (say) Romania to concede much on anything else?
    They're next door to Moldavia and the Ukraine and Vladimir's having a bad hair decade.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    One year beat six months as the optimal gap in that poll I ran. Cheers to those who partook (whether via Twitter or leaving a comment).

    Has Jihadi Jez declared a fatwa on the press yet?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    I really despise apologists.

    You cannot excuse Shah's behaviour just because she has made an apology. What she engaged with on Facebook cannot be undone by a sorry - no matter how sincere.

    What she did was appalling. And people are now falling over themselves to try to defend her.

    Sorry, but that will not wash.

    She has to go from the party as much as Ken. And others who have espoused similar views.

    Labour needs to purge itself of those who cannot conduct themselves with decency. Unless it is prepared to do that (and I suspect it isn't), it will remain the home for those who seem content to promote medieval thinking above the rights of others.

    The Left has lost any claim to the moral high ground and it will take real leadership to get them out of this mess. Corbyn is at the heart of the it and is too closely aligned with disreputable groups, states and ideologies to be fit to lead them out of this crisis.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    The UK's negotiating position is far stronger than anyone, including ourselves, is prepared to admit..

    I cannot imagine how you can possibly argue that. Obviously both sides will agree tariff-free access for manufactured goods, as it is both sides' interests, but what's the incentive on (say) Romania to concede much on anything else?
    Frankly, you seem not to understand much about group dynamics. Romania's position on anything is not that relevant. There is only room for a few big players at the table, and the pressure on the little guys to simply accept what is decided by the adults will be immense, regardless of the rules. That is how diplomacy works. From first hand experience.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    MTimT said:

    Any electoral logic about how women will vote when faced with a choice of Trump vs Hillary is just as likely to be wrong.

    Quite. How would pundits have expected Hillary to fare against a hypothetical geriatric white man with a record of writing very questionable material about women?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    A nice article by James Bartholemew (who coined "virtue signalling") reminding us that the dead hand of government always holds us back.
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/why-the-spanish-may-be-better-off-without-a-government/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    O/T

    Read about this in The Times yesterday, the farce that is Berlin-Brandenburg airport. Should have opened in 2010, not might not open until 2019.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Brandenburg_Airport
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