Mr. Eagles, Blair was very good at winning elections. But that's a means to an end. If you're a great campaigner and a feeble governor, you're falling into the school of Honorius.
Completely irrelevant to the point I was making.
Blair, nor Thatcher ever increased their party's share of the vote at a subsequent general election after taking power.
Mr. Eagles, Blair was very good at winning elections. But that's a means to an end. If you're a great campaigner and a feeble governor, you're falling into the school of Honorius.
Completely irrelevant to the point I was making.
Blair, nor Thatcher ever increased their party's share of the vote at a subsequent general election after taking power.
TSE simultaneously clutching at straws, whilst expressing his man-love for Dodgy Dave. Bless
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
The Bilderberg Group will order our government to surrender their seat on the Security Council.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.
Resuming hostilities it seems that the smugness exhibited by Remainers recently over Obama was premature, those gloating about holing HMS Anglosphere look a bit silly.
I called for calm heads and I'm repeating it, Remain may have to rethink their strategy, I can't believe they have a better card to play than Obama but let's see.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum.
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Not at all, a pleasant change
I think Galloway is yesterday's man now, expect an early migration on the after-dinner speaking circuit His Mayoral video was amusing, but not the sort of thing that gets the voters hearts pounding - except from the exertion of running away!
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
Me neither - and only a PCC election pending
HMRC are a bit rubbish too.
A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.
If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???
I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.
Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?
It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.
The Bilderberg Group will order our government to surrender their seat on the Security Council.
Pretty safe to say now that Obama was not the "knockout blow" Remain were hoping for.
Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).
All companies are taxed on profit - so why should we be taxed on turnover.
Ironically the government is currently being sued in the ECJ for attempting to tax one sort of company (BTL Landlords) on the basis of turnover rather than profit. If they lose that at least 1% of the shine of all things EU might wear off... no that's probably expecting too much.
Why, you ask yourself, has this anything to do with the EU? It's a nice example of how the EU's competences have become overstretched.
Well it will make a few more quid for the Blairs, Cherie Blair QC's outfit are leading the charge.
The legal challenge is being made against the new policy on the basis that it breaches the European Convention on Human Rights, and it constitutes unlawful grant of State aid to corporate landlords and to the owners of commercially let holiday homes contrary to articles of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
6.2 looks like a big price for President Trump, better than the 1.37 for nomination I think.
The implied 1.28 for Hillary (Trump 4.5 implied) in the two horse race looks a bit short.
Yes, I think that implied 1.28 is too short. Even if it's not, there are likely to be twists and turns in the contest which will provide trading opportunities.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.
6.2 looks like a big price for President Trump, better than the 1.37 for nomination I think.
The implied 1.28 for Hillary (Trump 4.5 implied) in the two horse race looks a bit short.
Yes, I think that implied 1.28 is too short. Even if it's not, there are likely to be twists and turns in the contest which will provide trading opportunities.
The main factor limiting the trading opportunities will probably be the level of denial meaning that the market doesn't react to events. Even if Trump starts leading the polls consistently Hillary will most likely still be odds on.
Pretty safe to say now that Obama was not the "knockout blow" Remain were hoping for.
Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).
...and even less a traitorous pig dog PM inviting him over to harangue us and writing his scummy speech for him... FWIW I still think Remain will win, but the wailing and gnashing if it is a Leave result will keep me smiling for years to come.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
How many governments that have gone the full term have seen their share of the vote increase, since the war?
Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.
Con+Lib Dem votes share in 2010 was: 59.1% in 2015 it was: 44.7%
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
I do not understand how on the today's ORB and ICM polls the DK are so small. I think there are many more undecideds than in these polls. Maybe someone who understands polling can explain it.
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
Me neither - and only a PCC election pending
HMRC are a bit rubbish too.
A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.
If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.
Ditto - great doorstep feedback
100% Plato - I only wish Dixie posted more!!
If UKIP are doing better than the polls on the doorstep, You have to reckon they may do even better in the ballot box, if there is a 'shy kipper' vote.
Listen to Frank Field today. For him, the instinctive position of the labour voter is leave.
Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.
The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".
I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.
The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.
The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.
The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.
We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".
And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.
His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.
I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?
How many governments that have gone the full term have seen their share of the vote increase, since the war?
Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.
Con+Lib Dem votes share in 2010 was: 59.1% in 2015 it was: 44.7%
The Gov't did indeed lose votes !
Seeing as Corbyn is unelectable, I'm expecting the logical collorary to be a minority Tory Gov't in 2020 with the tacit support of the UUP, and the DUP on a confidence and supply basis.
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
Me neither - and only a PCC election pending
HMRC are a bit rubbish too.
A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.
If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.
Seem to recall dimly that Greens did very well in the Mayoral last time.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Ever closer integration.
That's what it says on the tin.
That's fine. They probably need it, given the currency area. We wont be involved though as we are not in the Euro.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
>
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.
I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.
Me neither - and only a PCC election pending
HMRC are a bit rubbish too.
A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.
If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???
Don't start me on HMRC.
Oh go on - what did they ever do to you?
Have you ever tried ringing them for advice? Or even better, the time I changed business address and the VAT people wrote back to say they can't change the address on their files due to the amount of fraud going on but they'll write back to me soon. I'm still waiting - it has been five years!
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
Pretty safe to say now that Obama was not the "knockout blow" Remain were hoping for.
Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).
...and even less a traitorous pig dog PM inviting him over to harangue us and writing his scummy speech for him... FWIW I still think Remain will win, but the wailing and gnashing if it is a Leave result will keep me smiling for years to come.
I have noted a large spike in "concern" over the EU from alot of my 'remain' friends on Facebook.
Although not directly analogous the situation reminds me of the hunting bill somewhat.
Those who were concerned before the ban tended to be those against fox hunting, those in favour bringing up arguments about how it would waste parliamentary time and so forth.
After the ban those in favour tended to be more concerned about it, and all the arguments previously used about wasting parliamentary time on it suddenly went out the window !
People only ever "concerned/bothered" about something when its not going their way...
Not brilliant for Remain, but putting a nice, shiny spin on it, maybe a narrow poll lead for Leave will persuade Labour-Remainers that they will need to get off the sofa and actually vote.
Resuming hostilities it seems that the smugness exhibited by Remainers recently over Obama was premature, those gloating about holing HMS Anglosphere look a bit silly.
I called for calm heads and I'm repeating it, Remain may have to rethink their strategy, I can't believe they have a better card to play than Obama but let's see.
In immigration Leave have by far the best calling card of all. That's why I expect them to win.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
>
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.
The Dutch threw out the agreement with the Ukraine completely, but it's still going ahead in effect, just without the title at the top of the page - democracy EU style
Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.
Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.
Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.
I do not understand how on the today's ORB and ICM polls the DK are so small. I think there are many more undecideds than in these polls. Maybe someone who understands polling can explain it.
Neither do I. I'd have predicted any Obama backlash to have resulted in a rise in don't know, not a fall in it.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Isn't it quite difficult to end up with just one seat on the London Assembly? It's a narrow band from the 5% cut-off to the point where you'd win a second. Even more so if one or more of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems miss out.
The thing that worries me about an European army that it could be used internally to support the EU. I have seen a few straws in the wind about troops, invited or uninvited, should be sent to Greece to force the Greeks to keep the immigrants there. And nothing at all on any external use. Would we be happy to see UK troops in the Ukraine to support the EU choice of government there, if the Ukranian people turned against him?
Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.
Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.
Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.
But I still expect a circa 60/40 Remain win.
Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.
Why would the leavers put at risk their position to negotiate over the next four years their deal irrespective of whether David Cameron stays or retires
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
>
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned. Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
Mr. Eagles, that makes Goldsmith sound like an utter moron.
First name? Not sure. You must have some idea. It might be Sod Off. What? Well, when I used to play in the gutter with the other snipes, I used to say "Hello, my name's Baldrick." And they'd say, "Yes, we know, Sod Off Baldrick."
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned. Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
Like when we refused to pay, then halved the bill, then paid the whole bill?
Mr. Observer, yes but I'd say firstly that fear of the unknown (losing what one has) trumps fear of the known (the unpleasant rubbish continuing), and that fear of losing trade/pensions/all that is wise and just and good, beats fear of more immigrants.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
>
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.
Why wouldn't it be?
The EU is facing many crisis and democracy is one of them. The cry for democracy will echo throughout Europe over the next few years and change will happen, that is the main reason I believe UK should be at the table
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Resuming hostilities it seems that the smugness exhibited by Remainers recently over Obama was premature, those gloating about holing HMS Anglosphere look a bit silly.
I called for calm heads and I'm repeating it, Remain may have to rethink their strategy, I can't believe they have a better card to play than Obama but let's see.
In immigration Leave have by far the best calling card of all. That's why I expect them to win.
I think you might be right, I'm not as fussed as some about immigration but there is undoubtedly growing concern among the WWC. At GE's they vote tribally in the main but they'll view this differently.
I've said on here til I'm blue in the face they'll win it for Leave, the odds suggest I'm wrong but I'm increasingly confident.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
A general election if there's a leave vote is a terrible idea.
On the Labour side if they win they don't want to leave so what's going to happen? On the Tory side enough want to leave that there's no way we won't leave if there's a leave vote so why have a GE?
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned. Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
Like when we refused to pay, then halved the bill, then paid the whole bill?
That was our bill we needed to pay based on the agreed payment mechanism. The second and third you mentioned have no inevitability and require a vote where we have a veto while the payment didn't.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned. Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
EU Budget and Social Security have been QMV since Lisbon. Meaning we would have to overturn them on the floor of the EU Parliament, good luck with that.
Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.
Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.
Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.
But I still expect a circa 60/40 Remain win.
Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.
This is a massive issue the Remain camp has, it would be easy for them to cry racist now, but before long they'll be asking those racists to vote for them in elections.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The Government should refuse to implement the Port Services Directive if it unfairly impacts on the UK port industry. They won't though and we will see yet another industry negatively impacted by the EU.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Isn't it quite difficult to end up with just one seat on the London Assembly? It's a narrow band from the 5% cut-off to the point where you'd win a second. Even more so if one or more of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems miss out.
Yes, it is a good point. I've never worked it out, but it does seem to be the case. Things is that Greens/Libs/UKIP all may be at 7%. Will they all get 2 seats? I can't see it. Labour say they might lose seats!
Hilarious,the first full week of the campaign and Remain has used almost everyone from the establishment to Obama & Leave goes up in the polls.You couldn't make it up.
Mr Meeks will be along in a minute to tell us these polls were all paid for by the Leave campaign.
I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.
Remainian Post of the Day !
Thank you
If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.
Full steam ahead with what?
Port Services Directive Increase in the EU Budget Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned. Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
EU Budget and Social Security have been QMV since Lisbon. Meaning we would have to overturn them on the floor of the EU Parliament, good luck with that.
"harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection" still requires unanimity.
I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!
Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.
Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!
More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.
Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.
Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!
Sorry, to bother you with all this.
Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.
Yes, I think social media has made us more conservative. If you say you are a Kipper, the world knows it, so people keep quiet. I do think, but don't want to say too much, that we Tories will do 2-4% better in London than opinion polls, perhaps more. In GE, we did 3% better and Labour 3% worse. I do see the same again.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?
N0- that is a non sequitur. There is no direct relationship between local election results and the following General Election - eg Labour did badly at the 1960 and 1961 elections but still went on to win the 1964 General Election. On the other hand, Labour did well at the May 1970 local elections but then lost the General Election a month later!
A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.
A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?
N0- that is a non sequitur. There is no direct relationship between local election results and the following General Election - eg Labour did badly at the 1960 and 1961 elections but still went on to win the 1964 General Election.
....when someone vaguely electable and acceptable led the Labour party.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
I TOLD YOU NOT TO GLOAT, on April 22nd, the day Obama did his stupid thing: ~ Voters don't like being bullied, and sometimes react the opposite way intended. Independence referendums are strange things."
A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If you say so. The problem with loans is they can always ask for their money back if you aren't appropriately supportive, rather like an EU Pension.
It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.
All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.
Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:
I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.
For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20
If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).
The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.
In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.
Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.
Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
I voted "Yes" our Unis should take EU cash on the poll, though I suspect many will be using it as a proxy poll for EURef ("Yes" on 29% in the voodoo poll).
A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
Not claiming to be impartial is not the same as being upfront about a financial interest.
My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.
But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.
A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan
Comments
Blair, nor Thatcher ever increased their party's share of the vote at a subsequent general election after taking power.
Bless
Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)
Fieldwork April 22-24
I called for calm heads and I'm repeating it, Remain may have to rethink their strategy, I can't believe they have a better card to play than Obama but let's see.
I think Galloway is yesterday's man now, expect an early migration on the after-dinner speaking circuit
A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.
If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???
Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).
Cameron's achievement in the 2015 election is comparable to the long period Honorius kept the purple during a very regicidal period.
Didn't stop him being a chicken-loving, ally-murdering incompetent, though.
in 2015 it was: 44.7%
If UKIP are doing better than the polls on the doorstep, You have to reckon they may do even better in the ballot box, if there is a 'shy kipper' vote.
Listen to Frank Field today. For him, the instinctive position of the labour voter is leave.
Seeing as Corbyn is unelectable, I'm expecting the logical collorary to be a minority Tory Gov't in 2020 with the tacit support of the UUP, and the DUP on a confidence and supply basis.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/724970863133601792
That's what it says on the tin.
Increase in the EU Budget
Harmonising Social Security
These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.
Although not directly analogous the situation reminds me of the hunting bill somewhat.
Those who were concerned before the ban tended to be those against fox hunting, those in favour bringing up arguments about how it would waste parliamentary time and so forth.
After the ban those in favour tended to be more concerned about it, and all the arguments previously used about wasting parliamentary time on it suddenly went out the window !
People only ever "concerned/bothered" about something when its not going their way...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-eu-ukraine-idUSKCN0X70SJ
Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.
Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.
Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.
But I still expect a circa 60/40 Remain win.
Voters identifying as Remain = 65%
Voters identifying as Leave = 80%
What is the 10/10 on their phone poll
I've put a pony on a quick GE by early 2017 @10/1
Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?
First name?
Not sure.
You must have some idea.
It might be Sod Off.
What?
Well, when I used to play in the gutter with the other snipes, I used to say "Hello, my name's Baldrick." And they'd say, "Yes, we know, Sod Off Baldrick."
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/724959407134617600
It's a strong card for Leave, mind.
I've said on here til I'm blue in the face they'll win it for Leave, the odds suggest I'm wrong but I'm increasingly confident.
On the street, Leave is committed and complacency won't help Remain.
On the Labour side if they win they don't want to leave so what's going to happen?
On the Tory side enough want to leave that there's no way we won't leave if there's a leave vote so why have a GE?
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/723505888670171137
Be LEAVE!
'Things are looking up even more for Leave:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/724970863133601792'
Hilarious,the first full week of the campaign and Remain has used almost everyone from the establishment to Obama & Leave goes up in the polls.You couldn't make it up.
Mr Meeks will be along in a minute to tell us these polls were all paid for by the Leave campaign.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606074/Oxford-University-Loan-European-Union-European-Investment-Bank-Andrew-Taylor
Three federalists and the appeaser, Lord Halifax.
Puts the Cambridge spy ring to shame!
I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?
Not claiming to be impartial is not the same as being upfront about a financial interest.
If we didn't give £1.7bn to the EU last year we could have given some of it to Oxford, no need for a loan