politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since t

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Blair was very good at winning elections. But that's a means to an end. If you're a great campaigner and a feeble governor, you're falling into the school of Honorius.

Completely irrelevant to the point I was making.

Blair, nor Thatcher ever increased their party's share of the vote at a subsequent general election after taking power.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Patrick said:

I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.

Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?

It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.

The Bilderberg Group will order our government to surrender their seat on the Security Council.

ICM Online

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Fieldwork April 22-24

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Fieldwork April 22-24

People starting to make up their minds?

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Patrick said:

I'm purblind then. The EU machine doesn't share or devolve power. They'll happily bully national governments all day long - yes, including on the issue of national level protections - but they'll not surrender an iota of power to anyone for anything ever. The journey to a superstate is planned and will never be surrendered. They want to build an EU army. They want to harmonise tax rates. They want to make nation states irrelevant. Who's the blind one here really? Are you honestly fine with where they are going? They're like the terminator - they can't be bargained with and they simply will not stop, ever, until nations states are dead. But I quite like my nation state.

Yeah, yeah, I get all that, but in respect of the Security Council (a) What's the 'EU machine', and who are 'they'? (b) What power do they have to bully us? (c) Even if they bully us, what power do they have over France and the USA, both of whom would veto any such change in any conceivable world?

It's 100%, batshit-crazy, tin-foil-hat, green-ink bonkers. Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality.

The Bilderberg Group will order our government to surrender their seat on the Security Council.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Fieldwork April 22-24

We live in interesting times.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Pulpstar said:

6.2 looks like a big price for President Trump, better than the 1.37 for nomination I think.

The implied 1.28 for Hillary (Trump 4.5 implied) in the two horse race looks a bit short.

Yes, I think that implied 1.28 is too short. Even if it's not, there are likely to be twists and turns in the contest which will provide trading opportunities.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

6.2 looks like a big price for President Trump, better than the 1.37 for nomination I think.

The implied 1.28 for Hillary (Trump 4.5 implied) in the two horse race looks a bit short.

Yes, I think that implied 1.28 is too short. Even if it's not, there are likely to be twists and turns in the contest which will provide trading opportunities.

The main factor limiting the trading opportunities will probably be the level of denial meaning that the market doesn't react to events. Even if Trump starts leading the polls consistently Hillary will most likely still be odds on.

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online (fieldwork post Obama)

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Pretty safe to say now that Obama was not the "knockout blow" Remain were hoping for.

Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).

...and even less a traitorous pig dog PM inviting him over to harangue us and writing his scummy speech for him... FWIW I still think Remain will win, but the wailing and gnashing if it is a Leave result will keep me smiling for years to come.

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Full steam ahead with what?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Plato_Says said:

rottenborough said:

I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.

Me neither - and only a PCC election pending

HMRC are a bit rubbish too.

A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.

If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???

Don't start me on HMRC.

runnymede said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online (fieldwork post Obama)

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Exactly as predicted by the PB Groupthink Trust. Impressive.

Except my part of it, where I predicted a 2% bump for Remain.

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

Just listened to the 1 o'clock news. A Vote Leave spokesman said that the British people wont have a vote over whether Albania can join the EU. He then pointed out that 5% of their population currently living in the UK is in jail.

The interviewer then reminded him that we have an absolute veto over whether Albania or any other country can join the EU. "The government does but the people don't".

I understand the desire to win at all costs but to try to mislead is absolutely not the way to go. People listening will have hated it.

The people don't get a vote on new entrants to the EU so he is right. It's why they keep bringing up membership for Turkey, our government are in favour even though the people would be close to 99% against. Obviously membership for Turkey is unlikely for reasons people have pointed out, but our government are in favour and are under no obligation to give the people a say on new entrants.

The other thing to keep an eye on is that there is no referendum lock on accession treaties, they are explicitly excluded from the EU Act 2011, so the EU and/or the government can attach anything else it wants in the way of giving up powers to Brussels and the people get no say on the matter, just our Europhile cabinet.

The people get to vote in general elections. That's how it works here.

We have been there and done that. Gordon signs it, Cast Iron Dave says "oops too late".

And we now have a referendum on continuing membership and the opportunity in four years time to vote for a different government; the current one being led by the person who said "oops too late" and saw his party's vote share rise in the subsequent election to the extent that it now has a Commons majority.

His vote increased by a laughable 0.7%, its just that Labour keeps electing f*ckwits as leader.

I trust you are not trying to suggest with a straight face that his "oops" lead to that increase ?

How many governments that have gone the full term have seen their share of the vote increase, since the war?

Just so we can put that laughable 0.7% into context.

Con+Lib Dem votes share in 2010 was: 59.1%
in 2015 it was: 44.7%

The Gov't did indeed lose votes !

Seeing as Corbyn is unelectable, I'm expecting the logical collorary to be a minority Tory Gov't in 2020 with the tacit support of the UUP, and the DUP on a confidence and supply basis.

rottenborough said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Plato_Says said:

rottenborough said:

I know a lot of people were worried about the £9 million on a EU leaflet. Even more worrying is some of it was being wasted at the Royal Mail - I still haven't received mine.

Me neither - and only a PCC election pending

HMRC are a bit rubbish too.

A couple of years ago, they sent me a letter saying I didn't need to file in a tax return for the subsequent tax year (had to file one for the previous year, it was because of my time in Colorado in 2011), and to ignore any request they would send to file one - but they sent a request any way.

If they knew I didn't have to file a return for the subsequent tax year, why did they bother to send a request???

Don't start me on HMRC.

Oh go on - what did they ever do to you?

taffys said:

Dixie said:

I feel guilty bringing up the 5th May elections, when all are talking about the referendum. Anyway, news on the streets of Wales and London is that UKIP will do better than polls. Might mean an extra seat or two in Wales and a London-wide Assembly member in London, at a stretch 2!

Lib Dems are having a good campaign in terms of policies and organisations but no one trusts them! You may already know that.

Labour say Khan is almost certain to be Mayor - '100%' is their view. mmm, let's hope not. Labour chaps say there is some gossip about him, not extremist led, that may leak!

More Tories on the ground than Labour in London. Opposite of GE.

Personally, it would be interesting to see who tops the mini-battle of Mayoral candidates between Greens (she's lovely), Lib Dems (automaton) and UKIP (surprising pleasant). I think UKIP might clinch it.

Lastly, Galloway is bombing. Does he have any juice left in the tank? No one thinks so, but he is an unexploded bomb!

Sorry, to bother you with all this.

Don't apologise these posts are great. Ties in with chestnut's post about 'shy working class kippers'.

Seem to recall dimly that Greens did very well in the Mayoral last time.

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

>


If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.

@AidanKerrPol: Uh huh? Lib Dem UK leader Tim Farron was campaigning in Scotland today but no one notified the media in advance? Strange one. #SP16

Patrick said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online (fieldwork post Obama)

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Pretty safe to say now that Obama was not the "knockout blow" Remain were hoping for.

Bottom line is Brits do not appreciate being treated as the USA's poodle and having their President come over here and tell us what to do (even if the President is as well-liked as Obama).

...and even less a traitorous pig dog PM inviting him over to harangue us and writing his scummy speech for him... FWIW I still think Remain will win, but the wailing and gnashing if it is a Leave result will keep me smiling for years to come.

I have noted a large spike in "concern" over the EU from alot of my 'remain' friends on Facebook.

Although not directly analogous the situation reminds me of the hunting bill somewhat.

Those who were concerned before the ban tended to be those against fox hunting, those in favour bringing up arguments about how it would waste parliamentary time and so forth.

After the ban those in favour tended to be more concerned about it, and all the arguments previously used about wasting parliamentary time on it suddenly went out the window !

People only ever "concerned/bothered" about something when its not going their way...

blackburn63 said:

Resuming hostilities it seems that the smugness exhibited by Remainers recently over Obama was premature, those gloating about holing HMS Anglosphere look a bit silly.

I called for calm heads and I'm repeating it, Remain may have to rethink their strategy, I can't believe they have a better card to play than Obama but let's see.

In immigration Leave have by far the best calling card of all. That's why I expect them to win.

Mr. Observer, fear trumps hope.

Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.

Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.

Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.

But I still expect a circa 60/40 Remain win.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Fieldwork April 22-24

People starting to make up their minds?

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICM Online

Leave 46% (+2)
Remain 44% (+1)
Don't know 10% (-3)

Fieldwork April 22-24

People starting to make up their minds?

I do not understand how on the today's ORB and ICM polls the DK are so small. I think there are many more undecideds than in these polls. Maybe someone who understands polling can explain it.

Neither do I. I'd have predicted any Obama backlash to have resulted in a rise in don't know, not a fall in it.

The thing that worries me about an European army that it could be used internally to support the EU. I have seen a few straws in the wind about troops, invited or uninvited, should be sent to Greece to force the Greeks to keep the immigrants there. And nothing at all on any external use. Would we be happy to see UK troops in the Ukraine to support the EU choice of government there, if the Ukranian people turned against him?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, fear trumps hope.

Not only that, those who think they'll lose out or worry they might have a real thing now they fear losing. Those hoping for something better have an oasis in the desert. It might be real, or it might be an illusion.

Inertia and the status quo are powerful factors, I think.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Indigo, quite.

Even if we vote to Leave, there's a significant chance we won't.

But I still expect a circa 60/40 Remain win.

Immigration is the ultimate fear card, isn't it? Immigrants are taking our jobs, pushing down our wages, claiming our generous benefits, making our housing more expensive, putting our public services under unbearable pressure and changing the cultural and social fabric of our country. It's an immensely powerful message and very hard to counter.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/724977451663802368

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Full steam ahead with what?

Port Services Directive
Increase in the EU Budget
Harmonising Social Security

These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.

The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned.
Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?

MikeK said:

If Leave do win the referendum, or even come within 2% points in losing, my betting is that there will be a new GE within months of the result.

I've put a pony on a quick GE by early 2017 @10/1

Why would the leavers put at risk their chance to negotiate a deal over the next four years

Just before I go out canvassing, these are the numbers Leave need to change if they want to win

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/724959407134617600

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

>


If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Not at all sure that is the case. If the UK returned to the EU with a substantial leave vote there is no way it will be business as usual.

Why wouldn't it be?

The EU is facing many crisis and democracy is one of them. The cry for democracy will echo throughout Europe over the next few years and change will happen, that is the main reason I believe UK should be at the table

runnymede said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeK said:

If Leave do win the referendum, or even come within 2% points in losing, my betting is that there will be a new GE within months of the result.

I've put a pony on a quick GE by early 2017 @10/1

Why would the leavers put at risk their chance to negotiate a deal over the next four years

I wonder if Tory europhiles would try to force one and thus try to prevent the referendum result actually being executed. I wouldn't put it past them.

runnymede said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeK said:

If Leave do win the referendum, or even come within 2% points in losing, my betting is that there will be a new GE within months of the result.

I've put a pony on a quick GE by early 2017 @10/1

Why would the leavers put at risk their chance to negotiate a deal over the next four years

I wonder if Tory europhiles would try to force one and thus try to prevent the referendum result actually being executed. I wouldn't put it past them.

No one, or even one party, can act against the democratic will of the British people. It is not going to happen

MikeK said:

If Leave do win the referendum, or even come within 2% points in losing, my betting is that there will be a new GE within months of the result.

I've put a pony on a quick GE by early 2017 @10/1

A general election if there's a leave vote is a terrible idea.

On the Labour side if they win they don't want to leave so what's going to happen?
On the Tory side enough want to leave that there's no way we won't leave if there's a leave vote so why have a GE?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Full steam ahead with what?

Port Services Directive
Increase in the EU Budget
Harmonising Social Security

These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.

The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned.
Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?

Like when we refused to pay, then halved the bill, then paid the whole bill?

That was our bill we needed to pay based on the agreed payment mechanism. The second and third you mentioned have no inevitability and require a vote where we have a veto while the payment didn't.

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Dixie said:

SandyRentool said:

MikeK said:

OFF Thread.

Corbyn due for a thrashing?
https://twitter.com/MikkiL/status/724778237759492096

It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.

All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.

Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.

For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20

If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).

The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.

In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.

Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.

Because 2012 was a precursor to a Labour victory in the next GE right? A real high point?

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Full steam ahead with what?

Port Services Directive
Increase in the EU Budget
Harmonising Social Security

These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.

The Government should refuse to implement the Port Services Directive if it unfairly impacts on the UK port industry. They won't though and we will see yet another industry negatively impacted by the EU.

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

weejonnie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do not think Obama in the short term has helped remain and he repeated it in Europe to Europe. I do believe Boris’s ill judged comments angered him and maybe led to his onslaught and probably surprised David Cameron. Longer term it adds to the narrative for remain but there are many issues that play into each argument. The single market and security play well for remain but immigration, as long as it is not overdone as Obama, is good for leave as is TTIP. I am for remain and genuinely believe it is the best answer for the UK but I equally see and indeed share many of leave’s arguments. I hope that it is a modest positive remain vote but absolutely want leave to do well enough to demonstrate to the EU that that their voice, together with many others will be heard throughout the peoples of Europe, and that there will be a real eurosceptic move against the eurocrats from within the 28 Nations. I am content to accept the vote either way and hope those on both sides can be reconciled to work together for democratic change either from within or without the EU.

Remainian Post of the Day !

Thank you

If REMAIN win (very likely), no matter if it is 50.5 - 49.5 it will be spun a la Hollande/ Sarkozy. "Massive Vote to Remain" - and the EU will say 'Thanks very much. Full steam ahead'.

Full steam ahead with what?

Port Services Directive
Increase in the EU Budget
Harmonising Social Security

These are already in the legislative process and were pulled from the vote until after the referendum. I can see Tory voters choking in their tea at the second and third, and the first is going to wreck our very profitable container ports. Still I am sure Dave knows best.

The first is not going to set the world alight as far as most people are concerned.
Doesn't the UK have a veto on the second and third? Why would we not use our veto?

EU Budget and Social Security have been QMV since Lisbon. Meaning we would have to overturn them on the floor of the EU Parliament, good luck with that.

"harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection" still requires unanimity.

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/723505888670171137

Shocker.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606074/Oxford-University-Loan-European-Union-European-Investment-Bank-Andrew-Taylor

A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.

Whoosh!

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Dixie said:

SandyRentool said:

MikeK said:

OFF Thread.

Corbyn due for a thrashing?
https://twitter.com/MikkiL/status/724778237759492096

It is the projected national share that is really interesting, not the headline grabbing seat change from the heady days post-Omnishambles budget.

All will depend on turnout and regional variances. That said, these geezers have proper data. If anybody knows, they do. On the streets, Labour certainly doing less than 4 years ago. But, with Cameron screwing the Tories, it is hard to say what the outcome will be. Libs confident off a slight push upwards, 1 or 2 %. Labour probably braced for small losses.

Lib up 1 or 2% on when? The LDs NEV in 2012 was 16%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

I know some very esteemed psephologists disagree, but I think comparing the NEV to 2011 is more correct than 2012.

For then you get 2011 -> 16; 12 -> 17; 13 -> 18 14 -> 19.; 15 -> 20

If you carry on with 4 yr local cycles and 5 year GE cycles then you end up with 2015 -> 19 (Which compares a GE year to a non GE).

The picture isn't good for Labour however you look at it though.

In terms of the parliamentary cycle, that's fair enough. But in gains and losses - which is where the headline will be - 2012 is the right comparison. Also, using 2012 means you're comparing like-with-like in terms of *which* seats and councils were contested.

Given that Labour gained over 800 seats in 2012, seeing 170 of them reversed would - in reality - be no big deal.

Such inspiring confidence in the Hard Left leadership!

ICYMI

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/723505888670171137

Who would have thought it, given their current Chancellor....

Just had a look at the last four Chancellors Oxford has had, including the current incumbent.

Three federalists and the appeaser, Lord Halifax.

Puts the Cambridge spy ring to shame!

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/723505888670171137

Shocker.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606074/Oxford-University-Loan-European-Union-European-Investment-Bank-Andrew-Taylor

A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.

I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?

SeanT said:

Some more priceless quotes from the day Obama won it for REMAIN

Roger Posts: 5,054
April 22
As celebrity endorsements go they don't get much better. An expert testimony as well

bigjohnowls Posts: 6,205
April 22
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 27s28 seconds ago
The big winner today Cameron. The big loser Boris

Richard_Nabavi Posts: 10,443
April 22
I do love this argument that Cameron getting Obama to agree with him is demeaning to Cameron. Bravo!

I think can think of a few other frequent posters who claimed that it was game over for Leave.

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/723505888670171137

Shocker.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606074/Oxford-University-Loan-European-Union-European-Investment-Bank-Andrew-Taylor

A BANK owned by the European Union has handed Oxford University a staggering £200million loan, casting doubt over its impartiality ahead of the referendum.

I am confused. Doesn't this show a significant benefit of EU membership. Our universities - among our greatest and most internationally=-renowned institutions - have been able to get long-term loans from the EIB at preferential rates. That's good, isn't it? And, as a result, it's not a great surprise that Oxford likes the EU. It's not claiming to be impartial, is it?



Not claiming to be impartial is not the same as being upfront about a financial interest.

Inexplicably, SeanT forgot to include this quote of mine. I wonder why?

Richard_Nabavi said:

My point is that people telling an opinion pollster that they don't like Obama 'interfering' does not at all mean that his intervention hasn't had a dramatic effect in undermining the Leave case. There may even be a small move towards Leave in the opinion polls, as it's a cost-free way of being indignant.

But no sentient being is seriously more likely to vote Leave as a result of being miffed, are they? Whereas a number of sentient beings will appreciate that it rather blows a hole in Leave's case.

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1027363/#Comment_1027363