politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Thursday 2016 : Two Weeks to Go
Comments
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'Would someone without a background in economics be able to understand a lot of Minford's book?
I have just purchased, "Dilemmas of European Integration: The Ambiguities and Pitfalls of Integration by Stealth" by Giandomenico Majone. Zero reviews on Amazon but could be an interesting read.'
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If you fancy a laugh, Minford in front of the Foreign Policy Committee is great. The dimness of the MPs is hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rg4VJPrNFeY0 -
My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
Kate Hoey rather underwhelming on Question Time. Hmmph.
Mind you, she's still coming across infinitely better than Sanctimonious Paddy.0 -
Then is not now. Shockingly they'd probably react differently.rottenborough said:
Er, Churchill, Fulton, Missouri - 1946.kle4 said:
Yes, completely different, because they wouldn't react the exact same way to us going there on advising on their key strategic relationships which, coincidentally, very likely will lead to a change in PM depending on the result.rottenborough said:
Completely different. This is an ally advising on our key strategic relationships, not who we should vote as PM.dr_spyn said:I look forward to Cameron or Mr A N Other flying to Washington to advise American electors who to vote for in November.
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A million quid has been staked on the EU referendum at Betfair (matched) in the past 24 hours, out of £6.5m altogether. Why?0
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Has Weatherspoons guy explained why he removed the Sunday Lunch option from his pubs? ;-)Danny565 said:Kate Hoey rather underwhelming on Question Time. Hmmph.
Mind you, she's still coming across infinitely better than Sanctimonious Paddy.0 -
Too close to the ground to judge Dixie's comment on the Tory effort, but there is a ridiculous amount of Labour effort going on - every time I log on to the site I get a choice of dozens of events over the next few days in different parts of London, with a specific prompt for the one that the system has worked out is closest to me. Khan is benefiting from an odd congruence of interest - left-wingers want him to win because they think it will reflect well on the leadership, and moderates want him to win to create a medium-term alternative to the leadership.
I agree with Dixie that a 20-point margin sounds unlikely, but I think the Tories have overplayed the Islamist stuff - broadly, people either take an interest and know Khan isn't an extremist (and some of those are then incensed at the cynical Tory campaign), or they don't take an interest and it bounces off. Their problem is that they're so busy talking about Khan that they're getting almost no coverage for whatever it is that Goldsmith stands for, so it's becoming the Khan vs the anti-Khan. That lets Khan mop up the apolitical vote, who merely want a competent mayor to do something about housing and fares.0 -
Obama is a secret gambler, a la Claire Ballatine.John_N4 said:A million quid has been staked on the EU referendum at Betfair (matched) in the past 24 hours, out of £6.5m altogether. Why?
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With the expectations game played well for labour elsewhere, and chances of a stonking great win in London, may could be a good night for labour.NickPalmer said:Too close to the ground to judge Dixie's comment on the Tory effort, but there is a ridiculous amount of Labour effort going on - every time I log on to the site I get a choice of dozens of events over the next few days in different parts of London, with a specific prompt for the one that the system has worked out is closest to me. Khan is benefiting from an odd congruence of interest - left-wingers want him to win because they think it will reflect well on the leadership, and moderates want him to win to create a medium-term alternative to the leadership.
I agree with Dixie that a 20-point margin sounds unlikely, but I think the Tories have overplayed the Islamist stuff - broadly, people either take an interest and know Khan isn't an extremist (and some of those are then incensed at the cynical Tory campaign), or they don't take an interest and it bounces off. Their problem is that they're so busy talking about Khan that they're getting almost no coverage for whatever it is that Goldsmith stands for, so it's becoming the Khan vs the anti-Khan. That lets Khan mop up the apolitical vote, who merely want a competent mayor to do something about housing and fares.
Good night
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At least I haven't spent millions of taxpayer money on civil service time producing such sh*t.viewcode said:
Than previous report was rubbish...which is my point. Please feel free to use whatever you wish for bogroll.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
There are 108 could's in the treasury report. - and 140 if's....... from a Treasury Department that under forecast the debt by £172 billion in just 6 years.weejonnie said:
There are 108 could's in the treasury report. - and 140 if'sviewcode said:
Believe it or not I do try to read the links people post on here: for example I read both of the VLTC links you posted recently, although I assume you have posted more which I have not noticed. However I only got about 20% of the way thru this one (https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/) before I started using unparliamentary language. It's not just the fact that it's sourced from the never-knowingly-correct Roger Bootle's Capital Economics: that didn't stop me reading Bootle's Euroexit essay from a few years back. It was because it was...well, let's just do the list. The report includes the following:Casino_Royale said:This referendum never ceases to surprise me.
A good friend of mine (MASSIVE europhile, pro-euro, works as a Director for Deutsche Bank, and I can't imagine him voting anything other than 'Remain') has just said this is easily the best economic analysis out there, and should be sent to everyone:
https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
76 "could"s
70 " if "s
34 "may"s
30 "likely"s
25 "potential"s
18 "might"s
18 "estimate"s
14 "probably"s
12 "possible"s
11 "should"s
07 "probable"s
06 "think"s
05 "chance"s
06 "seems"s
05 "suggest"s
05 "appear"s
04 "assume"s
04 "believe"s
03 "doubt"s
03 "tend to"s
02 "possibiity"s
02 "on the other hand"s
01 "presumably"
and my favourites
01 "could potentially" (OH FOR F**KS SAKE!)
01 "certainly possible"
The report that your Deutsche Bank friend praised so extravagantly isn't a report, it's a fantasy in the literal sense: an indulgent thought exploration of a possible outcome. If your Deutsche Bank friend is recruiting, send me the link, because he *badly* needs somebody who can sieve.
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Both papers appear to be - so why try and denigrate one and not the other?RobD said:
Given that it is a report based on what could happen if we left the EU, it is hardly surprising.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
A question I've asked in Wetherspoons. Made a massive difference in my local on Sundays. Suspect its cost cutting because of rise in min wage, but very bad decision in my opinion which could have long term consequences.FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Weatherspoons guy explained why he removed the Sunday Lunch option from his pubs? ;-)Danny565 said:Kate Hoey rather underwhelming on Question Time. Hmmph.
Mind you, she's still coming across infinitely better than Sanctimonious Paddy.0 -
Paddy is on tv 11 months after running the least successful campaign for the Lib Dems ever and delivering a result that has virtually killed his party off. Remarkable achievement. Now he wants to give advice on the best thing for the UK>John_N4 said:
Is Paddy Pantsdown still going? I call him "Jeremy". "Paddy" was the nickname he got given in the army, by reason of his strong Irish accent...which he "lost" when he went into politics.Danny565 said:Sanctimonious Paddy.
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Wonder how everyone would have reacted if it had been his predecessor saying to Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
Just think if the referendum was next year, and Trump was in the White House and he made an intervention.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Wonder how everyone would have reacted if it had been his predecessor saying to Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
As someone else has already posted, if it's such a great idea why don't our friends in North America try and join up too? I'm sure they'd be welcome.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If his feature in the telegraph is anything to go by he is not making a few comments but looks like it is going to be full on. Tin hats timewatford30 said:
'As your friend...'TheScreamingEagles said:Barack Obama: As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/
Do one Barry.
The US should stop interfering in other countries. They've caused enough damage.0 -
To be fair to Ashdown he more than doubled the LDs number of MPs in 1997, his last election as leader, to 46 from the 22 Steel and Owen won in 1987TCPoliticalBetting said:
Paddy is on tv 11 months after running the least successful campaign for the Lib Dems ever and delivering a result that has virtually killed his party off. Remarkable achievement. Now he wants to give advice on the best thing for the UK>John_N4 said:
Is Paddy Pantsdown still going? I call him "Jeremy". "Paddy" was the nickname he got given in the army, by reason of his strong Irish accent...which he "lost" when he went into politics.Danny565 said:Sanctimonious Paddy.
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Thank you.weejonnie said:
At least I haven't spent millions of taxpayer money on civil service time producing such sh*t.viewcode said:
Than previous report was rubbish...which is my point. Please feel free to use whatever you wish for bogroll.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.0 -
Hoey and Fox both very poor.Danny565 said:Kate Hoey rather underwhelming on Question Time. Hmmph.
Mind you, she's still coming across infinitely better than Sanctimonious Paddy.
Paddy back to his old star quality. Great stuff.0 -
Trump in Harrisburg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZzQZReglQI0 -
It will be interesting to see if enough people vote with their feet if it will return. Seemed a short sighted move to me, as although I personally don't go their for Sunday lunch, I know it was popular at my local Spoons.valleyboy said:
A question I've asked in Wetherspoons. Made a massive difference in my local on Sundays. Suspect its cost cutting because of rise in min wage, but very bad decision in my opinion which could have long term consequences.FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Weatherspoons guy explained why he removed the Sunday Lunch option from his pubs? ;-)Danny565 said:Kate Hoey rather underwhelming on Question Time. Hmmph.
Mind you, she's still coming across infinitely better than Sanctimonious Paddy.0 -
If they are such a big fan of supranational authorities they could make a start by joining the international criminal court.0
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@TCPoliticalBetting
'Paddy is on tv 11 months after running the least successful campaign for the Lib Dems ever and delivering a result that has virtually killed his party off. Remarkable achievement. Now he wants to give advice on the best thing for the UK'
Agree,he did a top notch job decimating the Lib Dems.
But does anyone listen to the pompous rust bucket ?
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This helpful 'advice' stuff is really quite sweet, and not in the least bit patronising. Keep it up sonny.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
He'll always be Paddy Pantsdown,john_zims said:@TCPoliticalBetting
'Paddy is on tv 11 months after running the least successful campaign for the Lib Dems ever and delivering a result that has virtually killed his party off. Remarkable achievement. Now he wants to give advice on the best thing for the UK'
Agree,he did a top notch job decimating the Lib Dems.
But does anyone listen to the pompous rust bucket ?0 -
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Tim Martin is not a George Osborne fan by the sounds of things.0
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So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
I don't think he likes any politicians much. If I had to guess I think he wouldn't mind having a pint with Farage and that is about it.tlg86 said:Tim Martin is not a George Osborne fan by the sounds of things.
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Supposedly all the Tories will forgive and forget after the referendum and everything will go back to normal...watford30 said:
This helpful 'advice' stuff is really quite sweet, and not in the least bit patronising. Keep it up sonny.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
Oh baby.........TheScreamingEagles said:
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As others have probably already said, Barnet and Camden could be difficult for Labour to hold this year.0
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Corbynism sweeping the nation...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think I might break a rib laughing if that was the result.RobD said:0 -
Yet the liberal media seem to be hoping Trump loses...Sunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
Oh yes - much more so.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
Corbyn is the great unifier.MP_SE said:
Supposedly all the Tories will forgive and forget after the referendum and everything will go back to normal...watford30 said:
This helpful 'advice' stuff is really quite sweet, and not in the least bit patronising. Keep it up sonny.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
Has he eaten his hat yet?HYUFD said:
To be fair to Ashdown he more than doubled the LDs number of MPs in 1997, his last election as leader, to 46 from the 22 Steel and Owen won in 1987TCPoliticalBetting said:
Paddy is on tv 11 months after running the least successful campaign for the Lib Dems ever and delivering a result that has virtually killed his party off. Remarkable achievement. Now he wants to give advice on the best thing for the UK>John_N4 said:
Is Paddy Pantsdown still going? I call him "Jeremy". "Paddy" was the nickname he got given in the army, by reason of his strong Irish accent...which he "lost" when he went into politics.Danny565 said:Sanctimonious Paddy.
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"Normal" being feuding over europe...MP_SE said:
Supposedly all the Tories will forgive and forget after the referendum and everything will go back to normal...watford30 said:
This helpful 'advice' stuff is really quite sweet, and not in the least bit patronising. Keep it up sonny.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
The Tories stand every chance of splitting down the middle, particularly if one side continue patronising the other with 'advice'. Or telling them not to rock the boat like those who did in the 90's, and sit down quietly like good little children.MP_SE said:
Supposedly all the Tories will forgive and forget after the referendum and everything will go back to normal...watford30 said:
This helpful 'advice' stuff is really quite sweet, and not in the least bit patronising. Keep it up sonny.TheScreamingEagles said:My advice to Leavers.
Follow Douglas Carswell's tone about Obama's intervention.
Don't get all angry and abusive towards him.0 -
Livingstone just described Cruz as "the American Taliban" on this week. Sounds about right.Tim_B said:
Oh yes - much more so.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
Factor in Shy Tories and we're closer to 40 seats...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I might break a rib laughing if that was the result.RobD said:
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Dead referee 'appointed' to officiate Nigerian league match
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/361060410 -
Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/0 -
Trump 2016, Cruz 2020, Hillary's best chance of two termsSunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
Isn't it obvious? He's not a member of the same multi-culti, PC, leftoid kleptocracy that have infested almost all parties in almost all countries in the West.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Evangelicals were expected to support Cruz, but seem to be breaking for Trump.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/0 -
The fact Le Pen has endorsed Trump says all about the nationalists backing himRodCrosby said:
Isn't it obvious? He's not a member of the same multi-culti, PC, leftoid kleptocracy that have infested almost all parties in almost all countries in the West.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Springtime for Hillary?HYUFD said:
Trump 2016, Cruz 2020, Hillary's best chance of two termsSunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/
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I see the regressives are at it again...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/sports/baseball/curt-schilling-is-fired-by-espn.html0 -
Just one of several options that were discussed.FrancisUrquhart said:
We have had instructions today to implement our strike plans for Tuesday and Wednesday.0 -
Certainly she is lucky in her opponents, if it was Rubio or Kasich she faced she would be facing her autumn, goodnightSunil_Prasannan said:
Springtime for Hillary?HYUFD said:
Trump 2016, Cruz 2020, Hillary's best chance of two termsSunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
Sounds like the nuclear option.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Don't have too much fun nowfoxinsoxuk said:
Just one of several options that were discussed.FrancisUrquhart said:
We have had instructions today to implement our strike plans for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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This is what you feel yourself, not just what you think the guy is thinking? Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.RodCrosby said:
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Confirms that it's all about the money, and patient care and welfare is an irrelevance.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder what employment they're qualified for outside medicine? Must be some stiff competition these days. And the mortgages on those nice Middle Class houses won't pay themselves.0 -
And yet it is Cruz who seems more extreme!HYUFD said:
The fact Le Pen has endorsed Trump says all about the nationalists backing himRodCrosby said:
Isn't it obvious? He's not a member of the same multi-culti, PC, leftoid kleptocracy that have infested almost all parties in almost all countries in the West.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Not on immigration thoughSunil_Prasannan said:
And yet it is Cruz who seems more extreme!HYUFD said:
The fact Le Pen has endorsed Trump says all about the nationalists backing himRodCrosby said:
Isn't it obvious? He's not a member of the same multi-culti, PC, leftoid kleptocracy that have infested almost all parties in almost all countries in the West.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"I am often asked why I, a Christian libertarian and intellectual, would publicly support Donald Trump, a man of no fixed ideology, no apparent religious beliefs, multiple marriages, visible ties to the Clintons, and whose taste and sophistication tends to resemble that of a nouveau riche rhinoceros. It is a reasonable question. After all, how can anyone support a candidate whose public statements are, to put it mildly, inconsistent—when they are not completely self-contradictory.
The answer is as simple as it is conclusive and convincing. Donald Trump is the only candidate in either major party whose personal interests are aligned with those of the American public rather than with the interests of the anti-nationalist elite who see America as nothing more than lines on a map and Americans as nothing more than 300 million economic units in the global economy."
http://heatst.com/politics/vox-day-of-gamergate-why-i-support-donald-trump/
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
He will lose to Hillary, but apart from his lack of real policies and shooting from the hip, Trump is fairly establishment centrist by US standards.NickPalmer said:
This is what you feel yourself, not just what you think the guy is thinking? Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.RodCrosby said:
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Rumors, I mean rumours, are The Sunil on Sunday is on the verge of endorsing Trump!NickPalmer said:
This is what you feel yourself, not just what you think the guy is thinking? Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.RodCrosby said:
He's a beacon of hope for all people who wish to shake off the traitors who have brought us so low.0 -
Sorkin did it first (and better) about the Tea Partyfoxinsoxuk said:
Livingstone just described Cruz as "the American Taliban" on this week. Sounds about right.Tim_B said:
Oh yes - much more so.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So Cruz is in fact MORE extreme than Trump?HYUFD said:Cruz slams Trump's 'PC' stance on transgender bathrooms
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/21/cruz-slams-trump-pc-stance-transgender-bathrooms/0 -
I doubt Trump can actually win the election, although he'll probably do a lot better than most people expect. The main reason is female voters choosing Hillary because they want to see the first woman president. Simple but probably true.0
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January 20th 2017: "Welcome to the Oval Office, President Trump..."NickPalmer said:Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.
January 21th 2017: Looks bored, taps the desk with a pen
January 22th 2017: "Wall built yet?". "Er, no,Mr President..."
January 23th 2017: smacks lips, looks round, hums softly
January 24th 2017: "Fuck it. Let's inaugurate 'The Purge'..."
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"For 12 hours, all AV Threads are legal!"viewcode said:
January 20th 2017: "Welcome to the Oval Office, President Trump..."NickPalmer said:Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.
January 21th 2017: Looks bored, taps the desk with a pen
January 22th 2017: "Wall built yet?". "Er, no,Mr President..."
January 23th 2017: smacks lips, looks round, hums softly
January 24th 2017: "Fuck it. Let's inaugurate 'The Purge'..."0 -
"...This is not a test. This is your emergency broadcast system announcing the commencement of the Annual Purge sanctioned by the U.S. Government. Voting systems of class 4 and lower have been authorized for use during the Purge. All other threads are restricted. Government officials of ranking 10 have been granted immunity from the Purge and shall not be harmed. Commencing at the siren, any and all votes, including FPTP, AV, AV+, PR and "Oh just let him do it", will be legal for 12 continuous hours. Emergency voting services will be unavailable until tomorrow morning until 7 a.m., when The Purge concludes. Blessed be our New Founding Fathers and America, a nation reborn. May God be with you all..."Sunil_Prasannan said:
"For 12 hours, all AV Threads are legal!"viewcode said:
January 20th 2017: "Welcome to the Oval Office, President Trump..."NickPalmer said:Are there other Trump supporters on the site (LondonBob?)? - would be interesting to get a guest column from one of you on how you see it working out.
January 21th 2017: Looks bored, taps the desk with a pen
January 22th 2017: "Wall built yet?". "Er, no,Mr President..."
January 23th 2017: smacks lips, looks round, hums softly
January 24th 2017: "Fuck it. Let's inaugurate 'The Purge'..."0 -
CDU average poll rating down to 33.7% across the seven pollsters:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Thanks to Nick for flagging up this excellent site.0 -
Dixie: Are you the same chap who forecast that the Oldham by-election was "close" ?Dixie said:It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.
Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.
There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.
Interested to hear other people's views.0 -
O/T and last, probably
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552777/Why-did-Radio-4-vile-prime-time-Majesty-s-birthday-BBC-listeners-stunned-programme-mocks-Queen-s-sex-life-makes-reference-toilet.html
What I like best about this story (which is the apotheosis of "political correctness gone mad", by the way) is that the dear old DM repeatedly criticises David Baddiel for tweeting the link to the programme, while hosting the offensive audio itself on the DM website. Tremendous work
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the most stunning thing about the story being that anyone actually listens to R4 comedydugarbandier said:O/T and last, probably
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3552777/Why-did-Radio-4-vile-prime-time-Majesty-s-birthday-BBC-listeners-stunned-programme-mocks-Queen-s-sex-life-makes-reference-toilet.html
What I like best about this story (which is the apotheosis of "political correctness gone mad", by the way) is that the dear old DM repeatedly criticises David Baddiel for tweeting the link to the programme, while hosting the offensive audio itself on the DM website. Tremendous work0 -
A good reason for the Labour party to distance themselves as much as possible from the Tory referendum .TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
NEW THREAD 0 -
It's pathetic.weejonnie said:Also 62 May's, 75 likely's - shall we go on?
31 possible's 62 potential's 339 estimate's 34 should's 51 assume's
So if that previous report was rubbish, the treasury one wants to be used a bogroll.
He's nervous, because he doesn't like the conclusions and fears it might get traction.0 -
No, I said the opposite. That the public noise was opposite of what private polling was saying.surbiton said:
Dixie: Are you the same chap who forecast that the Oldham by-election was "close" ?Dixie said:It is difficult to forecast the London Assembly Member elections as the Mayoralty is clearly much more important. Therefore, the opinion polls only cover the Mayoralty and the two elections throw up different results. The YouGov opinion poll out today was startling. It shows a bigger margin for Khan than both Labour and Tory private polls are predicting.
Re; Assembly, historically, even when Ken in 2000 got about double Tory Steve Norris's vote, The Conservatives held Merton & Wandsworth etc. so Labour are unlikely to unseat us. That doesn't stop we blues from being nervous. We are working really hard on the London election and Labour are not, mainly due to their left wing issues and the fact that many of them don't like Khan. Labour Merton/Wandsworth candidate is doing sod all, which I hope continues.
There is a quiet Bradley effect out there, not enough to overcome 60/40, however 60/40 has not been seen before. Things may be solidifying for Khan but I don't see it. Tory data versus Labour bluster and I think Tories will get 2-4% more than opinion polls. If Cameron & co can keep quiet for a few weeks as well then Tories will do better. This remains a GOTV election and most Labour supporters are in Inner London, where their don't vote as often.
Interested to hear other people's views.0
