politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to bet against the Donald

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Actually it is a history lesson.

The inspiration for the thread came in an offsite conversation with a non Tory PBer

My point (and I'm not a Conservative) is I'm not interested in the petty machinations of the Conservative Party and the EU Referendum is not just about the Conservative Party and its own internal battle for its soul.

The EU Referendum is much more important than to be trivialised down to what's good for your party (or for your chosen faction of your party).

There are plenty of Conservatives on here and elsewhere who seem to see no contradiction in voting LEAVE and being a Conservative and will still be Conservative Party members and supporters whichever side wins and that's fine.

I'm looking forward to the pb thread:

"Why it is in Leave's best interests that Cameron is destroyed"

If you wish to write such a thread, I'll publish it.

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from 3 hours standing outside a community centre (largely in the rain) in Hart (north-east Hampshire) handing out Vote Leave leaflets. Probably about 200.

Bit mixed.

Most going in/out were in their 30s/40s with young kids.

Three handed the leaflet directly back, all looked very "AB". One old lady harrumphed me about it as she was a firm Remainer, and then tried to sabotage me handing out leaflets by interrupting me for a further minute. Then she left. I had another ask me if I had "permission" to be there, who then disappeared when I pointed out to her it was a public place.

On the plus side, about 80% of people accepted a leaflet, and I saw at least 40% immediately flick through and read it. Some more carried it with them back out again, so hadn't thrown it away. Most people were polite, but a good number weren't not particularly interested and clearly just wanted to get on with their Saturday. A few were very friendly and smilely.

Had conversations with two very firm Leavers, who offered encouragement. Both over 55 I'd say.

Quite a few women saying "I just don't know", "I'm not sure".

It seems to broadly reflect the polls to me. But I'd say 30s/40s more apathetic/unsure.

Well done you, especially for standing in the rain. Were you on your own or in a group?

I must say I'm much more comfortable knocking on doors or delivering than standing in a public place. Kudos!

Thanks mate - I was with one much younger guy too.

I can deal with questions, and have friendly conversations. It's the aggressive or confrontational ones that both embarrass me and knock my confidence. But they are rare.

She said, "For YOUR sake, I hope you LOSE." I said, "For my sake, I hope I win. Have a good day madame."

But it depressed me for a good ten minutes after!

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

It’s a photo of the establishment doing what the establishment does best: coalescing around a policy and convincing people that it would be sheer madness to oppose it. Government by social convention.

To some extent it’s a damning indictment of bourgeois democracy, of the way that those with power and privilege get to define what is politically acceptable and assert an unwritten consensus. A consensus that’s inescapable.

There is, however, a surprising consequence to the Remain campaign’s strategy of collecting celebrity endorsements like they were advertising walk-in baths. They’re creating a campaign of personalities rather than ideas. They’re trying to compel Britain to vote in a particular way rather than persuade them. And stubborn voters might not appreciate that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

I'm beginning to think that Leave might win this.

That one picture has done more than anything to turn me against Cameron.

I think it's a terrible mistake.

You make it sounds as if Cameron was pictured alongside fringe Nazis. I never liked either Kinnock or Ashdown, but they were long-term leaders of major British political parties, and remain highly respected by those parties' supporters. Sadly, Leave really are starting to conform to their opponents' stereotype of them: that anyone who doubts Leave's cause must be a buffoon or a traitor. It's an unappealing look.

The optics are terrible for his standing inside the Conservative Party, and it makes him look solidly establishment.

I know my party. Apart from the ultra-loyalists, most will wince.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Actually it is a history lesson.

The inspiration for the thread came in an offsite conversation with a non Tory PBer

My point (and I'm not a Conservative) is I'm not interested in the petty machinations of the Conservative Party and the EU Referendum is not just about the Conservative Party and its own internal battle for its soul.

The EU Referendum is much more important than to be trivialised down to what's good for your party (or for your chosen faction of your party).

There are plenty of Conservatives on here and elsewhere who seem to see no contradiction in voting LEAVE and being a Conservative and will still be Conservative Party members and supporters whichever side wins and that's fine.

I'm looking forward to the pb thread:

"Why it is in Leave's best interests that Cameron is destroyed"

If you wish to write such a thread, I'll publish it.

I'm not sure I do, or that it's correct. But it might be.

Thank you for offering.

john_zims said:

@Casino_Royale

'Just got back from 3 hours standing outside a community centre (largely in the rain) in Hart (north-east Hampshire) handing out Vote Leave leaflets. Probably about 200.

Bit mixed.

Most going in/out were in their 30s/40s with young kids.'


Not from the Nick Palmer school of canvassing then !

My problem is I'm too honest, and wear my heart on my sleeve. It also means I can be sensitive and emotional.

I could never be a politician.

Sean_F said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Actually it is a history lesson.

The inspiration for the thread came in an offsite conversation with a non Tory PBer

My point (and I'm not a Conservative) is I'm not interested in the petty machinations of the Conservative Party and the EU Referendum is not just about the Conservative Party and its own internal battle for its soul.

The EU Referendum is much more important than to be trivialised down to what's good for your party (or for your chosen faction of your party).

There are plenty of Conservatives on here and elsewhere who seem to see no contradiction in voting LEAVE and being a Conservative and will still be Conservative Party members and supporters whichever side wins and that's fine.

In a nutshell, that is how Matthew Parris sees it. Leave is bad for my faction of the Conservative Party.

And he won't be alone.

Congrats, great to hear honest reports. Bunnco will be losing his Man on the Spot place.

Re Cameron, our country is worth much more than his Wikipedia entry. Blair was king once too

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from 3 hours standing outside a community centre (largely in the rain) in Hart (north-east Hampshire) handing out Vote Leave leaflets. Probably about 200.

Bit mixed.

Most going in/out were in their 30s/40s with young kids.

Three handed the leaflet directly back, all looked very "AB". One old lady harrumphed me about it as she was a firm Remainer, and then tried to sabotage me handing out leaflets by interrupting me for a further minute. Then she left. I had another ask me if I had "permission" to be there, who then disappeared when I pointed out to her it was a public place.

On the plus side, about 80% of people accepted a leaflet, and I saw at least 40% immediately flick through and read it. Some more carried it with them back out again, so hadn't thrown it away. Most people were polite, but a good number weren't not particularly interested and clearly just wanted to get on with their Saturday. A few were very friendly and smilely.

Had conversations with two very firm Leavers, who offered encouragement. Both over 55 I'd say.

Quite a few women saying "I just don't know", "I'm not sure".

It seems to broadly reflect the polls to me. But I'd say 30s/40s more apathetic/unsure.

Well done you, especially for standing in the rain. Were you on your own or in a group?

I must say I'm much more comfortable knocking on doors or delivering than standing in a public place. Kudos!

Thanks mate - I was with one much younger guy too.

I can deal with questions, and have friendly conversations. It's the aggressive or confrontational ones that both embarrass me and knock my confidence. But they are rare.

She said, "For YOUR sake, I hope you LOSE." I said, "For my sake, I hope I win. Have a good day madame."

But it depressed me for a good ten minutes after!

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

Can Leave critique anything that Remain do without being accused of "frothing" ?

Major did the right thing by Northern Ireland, and I supported him at the time despite my youth. You could make a similar criticism over Thatcher and the Anglo-Irish agreement.

The same people can quite reasonably reach different conclusions on different issues when it comes to the national interest.

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Leave only have to be lucky once, Remain has to be lucky every time.

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

It’s a photo of the establishment doing what the establishment does best: coalescing around a policy and convincing people that it would be sheer madness to oppose it. Government by social convention.

To some extent it’s a damning indictment of bourgeois democracy, of the way that those with power and privilege get to define what is politically acceptable and assert an unwritten consensus. A consensus that’s inescapable.

There is, however, a surprising consequence to the Remain campaign’s strategy of collecting celebrity endorsements like they were advertising walk-in baths. They’re creating a campaign of personalities rather than ideas. They’re trying to compel Britain to vote in a particular way rather than persuade them. And stubborn voters might not appreciate that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

I'm beginning to think that Leave might win this.

That one picture has done more than anything to turn me against Cameron.

I think it's a terrible mistake.

You make it sounds as if Cameron was pictured alongside fringe Nazis. I never liked either Kinnock or Ashdown, but they were long-term leaders of major British political parties, and remain highly respected by those parties' supporters. Sadly, Leave really are starting to conform to their opponents' stereotype of them: that anyone who doubts Leave's cause must be a buffoon or a traitor. It's an unappealing look.

The optics are terrible for his standing inside the Conservative Party, and it makes him look solidly establishment.

I know my party. Apart from the ultra-loyalists, most will wince.

The Cause defines you.

Speaks a man who's altered his profile picture to the Flag of the European Union.

Casino_Royale said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

It’s a photo of the establishment doing what the establishment does best: coalescing around a policy and convincing people that it would be sheer madness to oppose it. Government by social convention.

To some extent it’s a damning indictment of bourgeois democracy, of the way that those with power and privilege get to define what is politically acceptable and assert an unwritten consensus. A consensus that’s inescapable.

There is, however, a surprising consequence to the Remain campaign’s strategy of collecting celebrity endorsements like they were advertising walk-in baths. They’re creating a campaign of personalities rather than ideas. They’re trying to compel Britain to vote in a particular way rather than persuade them. And stubborn voters might not appreciate that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

I'm beginning to think that Leave might win this.

That one picture has done more than anything to turn me against Cameron.

I think it's a terrible mistake.

You make it sounds as if Cameron was pictured alongside fringe Nazis. I never liked either Kinnock or Ashdown, but they were long-term leaders of major British political parties, and remain highly respected by those parties' supporters. Sadly, Leave really are starting to conform to their opponents' stereotype of them: that anyone who doubts Leave's cause must be a buffoon or a traitor. It's an unappealing look.

The optics are terrible for his standing inside the Conservative Party, and it makes him look solidly establishment.

I know my party. Apart from the ultra-loyalists, most will wince.

I'll take your word for it. If there was ever a group who were solidly establishment I'd assume it was the Tory party. Heck, I'd have thought it would be a point of pride.

But then I find railing against 'the establishment' quite overblown much of the time, since one of the reasons are politicians have condensed around many samey positions and backgrounds is because that's what we the public have, to date, rewarded electorally. Won't always be that way, maybe things are changing, but they wouldn't be the way they are if it hadn't worked, to date.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, what if you're elite but not wealthy?

Just curious, as the schoolgirl said to the nun.

You can only be part of the elite if you're wealthy, how the definition of wealthy is up for discussion.

So Joey Essex, net worth £6.6 million, is part of the elite but a professor at Oxford from a modest background is not

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Quite how you infer that from what I wrote is beyond me. I'll be kind and assume you've just woken up. If not I suggest adult literary classes.

Stark_Dawning said:

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Quite how you infer that from what I wrote is beyond me. I'll be kind and assume you've just woken up. If not I suggest adult literary classes.

Let's start from the point of view that it takes a lot to be happy for your party's leader to be photographed with the royalty of your opponents. Perhaps the Northern Ireland peace process meets the criteria, perhaps it doesn't. I'm not sure too many Tories will accept that this referendum meets the criteria.

That said I'm not a Tory, it's private grief and I shouldn't intrude.

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

It’s a photo of the establishment doing what the establishment does best: coalescing around a policy and convincing people that it would be sheer madness to oppose it. Government by social convention.

To some extent it’s a damning indictment of bourgeois democracy, of the way that those with power and privilege get to define what is politically acceptable and assert an unwritten consensus. A consensus that’s inescapable.

There is, however, a surprising consequence to the Remain campaign’s strategy of collecting celebrity endorsements like they were advertising walk-in baths. They’re creating a campaign of personalities rather than ideas. They’re trying to compel Britain to vote in a particular way rather than persuade them. And stubborn voters might not appreciate that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

I'm beginning to think that Leave might win this.

That one picture has done more than anything to turn me against Cameron.

I think it's a terrible mistake.

You make it sounds as if Cameron was pictured alongside fringe Nazis. I never liked either Kinnock or Ashdown, but they were long-term leaders of major British political parties, and remain highly respected by those parties' supporters. Sadly, Leave really are starting to conform to their opponents' stereotype of them: that anyone who doubts Leave's cause must be a buffoon or a traitor. It's an unappealing look.

The Three EU Stooges photo is indelible and disastrous. As you well know.

Not as disastrous as The Three Leave Stooges Galloway , IDS and Farage

At least Gorgeous George didn't shout out "WE'RE AAALLLLLRRRRRIIIIIGGGGHHHHTTTT!" at that rally Sheffield in 1992.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Leave only have to be lucky once, Remain has to be lucky every time.

"Cameron is the biggest bastard we have ever known!" - apologies to Danny Morrison.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CD13 said:

To summarise ...

Leavers are the poor, the old and the common.

Remainers are the young, the posh and the Establishment. The latter are generally the ones who consider themselves to be setters of opinion by right because they know best, hence the slightly sneering tone at times. Not a good look.

Cameron is an excellent politician because he has very few principles. Fearing losing the GE, he allowed a referendum despite being an ardent Europhile. A principled man would have refused.

Jezza is a man of principle. Unfortunately he's also a loon with lunatic principles. Of the establishment, but not part of it. He's also a poor politician and is thus unelectable.

Can I have my PPE degree now, please?

Sure, Oxford degrees are easy to pass.

but what do they prove ?

PeterC said:

Plato_Says said:

I've my knitting ready

I still can't quite get over Remain's patronising campaign here - copied from Obama, but without any Hope & Change

The campaign Talk to Gran was launched this week, urging the young to persuade the old via a series of rather patronising postcards. One reads: “Nan, let’s sit down for a cuppa, a slice of Battenberg . . . and a chat about why my future’s in the EU.”

Indigo said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

taffys said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're hardly a plebeian yourself. On the geographical front, you seem more pro-migrant than the average for the populations of both countries in which you own homes.

Mr. F, Cameron's entirely responsible for his loss of standing. He's acted with a mixture of arrogance, complacency and incompetence in recent months.

Edited extra bit: the reply to Mr. Meeks was perhaps ill-tempered. But sneering is not an endearing approach.

Mr. Meeks (2), the EU and US situations are radically different. The comparison is ridiculous.

I don't take kindly to my personal circumstances being used as debating points to attempt to disqualify me from having a view. A sneer in return is the least that is merited.

Is amusing, if you're wealthy and elite, we're not allowed to discuss matters of immigration because we don't live in the real world.

But the plebs of PB are allowed to talk about how international trade agreements will happen, despite them have no qualifications to talk about such things.

I love it.

''PB Plebs''

Nice.

Elsewhere the tumbrel wheels are being greased.......

Oh! "Tumbrel" that's my new word for the day, it's always an education here !

You are right - it's unbelievably patronising. Gran should reply about having a chat about the wisdom that comes with age!

-------------------------------------------
Gran should change her will and give it all to the cat's protection league.

*Edit -what is it with the quote function today?

Luckyguy1983 said:

PeterC said:

Plato_Says said:

I've my knitting ready

I still can't quite get over Remain's patronising campaign here - copied from Obama, but without any Hope & Change

The campaign Talk to Gran was launched this week, urging the young to persuade the old via a series of rather patronising postcards. One reads: “Nan, let’s sit down for a cuppa, a slice of Battenberg . . . and a chat about why my future’s in the EU.”

Indigo said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

taffys said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, you're hardly a plebeian yourself. On the geographical front, you seem more pro-migrant than the average for the populations of both countries in which you own homes.

Mr. F, Cameron's entirely responsible for his loss of standing. He's acted with a mixture of arrogance, complacency and incompetence in recent months.

Edited extra bit: the reply to Mr. Meeks was perhaps ill-tempered. But sneering is not an endearing approach.

Mr. Meeks (2), the EU and US situations are radically different. The comparison is ridiculous.

I don't take kindly to my personal circumstances being used as debating points to attempt to disqualify me from having a view. A sneer in return is the least that is merited.

Is amusing, if you're wealthy and elite, we're not allowed to discuss matters of immigration because we don't live in the real world.

But the plebs of PB are allowed to talk about how international trade agreements will happen, despite them have no qualifications to talk about such things.

I love it.

''PB Plebs''

Nice.

Elsewhere the tumbrel wheels are being greased.......

Oh! "Tumbrel" that's my new word for the day, it's always an education here !

You are right - it's unbelievably patronising. Gran should reply about having a chat about the wisdom that comes with age!

Gran should change her will and give it all to the cat's protection league.

LOL

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Quite how you infer that from what I wrote is beyond me. I'll be kind and assume you've just woken up. If not I suggest adult literary classes.

Let's start from the point of view that it takes a lot to be happy for your party's leader to be photographed with the royalty of your opponents. Perhaps the Northern Ireland peace process meets the criteria, perhaps it doesn't. I'm not sure too many Tories will accept that this referendum meets the criteria.

That said I'm not a Tory, it's private grief and I shouldn't intrude.

Oh I don't know. Dave lived to fight another day on the occasion it happened before:

http://tinyurl.com/gtmt99b

For the avoidance of doubt, I will vote Leave. It's nothing to do with the economics or immigrations - it's a grudge I've borne for over forty years. I was lied to in 1975 (both overtly and by being economical with the truth). Being only in my mid-twenties then, I assumed established politicians did not deliberately tell bare-faced lies.

Perhaps the old gits should sit the young 'uns down and tell them that the Establishment does lie, often and openly.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

It’s a photo of the establishment doing what the establishment does best: coalescing around a policy and convincing people that it would be sheer madness to oppose it. Government by social convention.

To some extent it’s a damning indictment of bourgeois democracy, of the way that those with power and privilege get to define what is politically acceptable and assert an unwritten consensus. A consensus that’s inescapable.

There is, however, a surprising consequence to the Remain campaign’s strategy of collecting celebrity endorsements like they were advertising walk-in baths. They’re creating a campaign of personalities rather than ideas. They’re trying to compel Britain to vote in a particular way rather than persuade them. And stubborn voters might not appreciate that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

I'm beginning to think that Leave might win this.

That one picture has done more than anything to turn me against Cameron.

I think it's a terrible mistake.

You make it sounds as if Cameron was pictured alongside fringe Nazis. I never liked either Kinnock or Ashdown, but they were long-term leaders of major British political parties, and remain highly respected by those parties' supporters. Sadly, Leave really are starting to conform to their opponents' stereotype of them: that anyone who doubts Leave's cause must be a buffoon or a traitor. It's an unappealing look.

The Three EU Stooges photo is indelible and disastrous. As you well know.

Not as disastrous as The Three Leave Stooges Galloway , IDS and Farage

At least Gorgeous George didn't shout out "WE'RE AAALLLLLRRRRRIIIIIGGGGHHHHTTTT!" at that rally Sheffield in 1992.

He could have been in the crowd.

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

But then I find railing against 'the establishment' quite overblown much of the time, since one of the reasons are politicians have condensed around many samey positions and backgrounds is because that's what we the public have, to date, rewarded electorally. Won't always be that way, maybe things are changing, but they wouldn't be the way they are if it hadn't worked, to date.

The flaw in that analysis is that in most elections the public get offered essentially the same policies by both parties, with slightly different window dressing. So the election is largely decided on the perception of competence, or because the public are fed up with seeing the same faces on the TV. Rewarding competence and looking the part, has it's place of course, but it would be a stretch to see that as approval of any or all of the party's policy platform.

That isn't a flaw in my analysis, it's the whole point - the reason they offer us essentially the same with different window dressing is they've established that's what has worked (and though turnout is down from historic levels, it has gone up three times in a row). I don't say it will last forever, and maybe we are at the tipping point, or approaching it, but there's a reason they've been offering us pablum, and it's because they think we like it, or accept it at any rate, and so far we have. When it no longer works, they will shift pretty rapidly. Indeed, that may be what Labour is trying right now, and it's a question of if they've jumped too soon or people still want the same old shower delivered by the most competent.

kle4 said:

Wasn't there a campaign (advert at least) in the Irish referendum on gay marriage all about 'take your family with you', with young people asking older people to come with them on this journey? I wonder if this 'write to gran' is supposed to be similar, but it has a lot less emotional resonance.

The staunch Remainer who harangued/tried to sabotage me today was a Gran: an old lady in her early 80s.

People never cease to surprise you, and you can't make assumptions.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another commonwealth country severing Queen's role.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3543228/Jamaica-announces-plans-axe-Queen-official-Head-State-eve-90th-birthday-replace-president.html

Gambia left the Commonwealth completely in 2013.

Unsound.

Another pb.com thread?

"Why King Charles III will be the biggest disaster to hit the British monarchy since Charles I"

CD13 said:

For the avoidance of doubt, I will vote Leave. It's nothing to do with the economics or immigrations - it's a grudge I've borne for over forty years. I was lied to in 1975 (both overtly and by being economical with the truth). Being only in my mid-twenties then, I assumed established politicians did not deliberately tell bare-faced lies.

Perhaps the old gits should sit the young 'uns down and tell them that the Establishment does lie, often and openly.

"I always lie - in fact, I am lying to you now!" - Harry Mudd.

Powerful:

https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/720936045982924800

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

Wasn't there a campaign (advert at least) in the Irish referendum on gay marriage all about 'take your family with you', with young people asking older people to come with them on this journey? I wonder if this 'write to gran' is supposed to be similar, but it has a lot less emotional resonance.

The staunch Remainer who harangued/tried to sabotage me today was a Gran: an old lady in her early 80s.

People never cease to surprise you, and you can't make assumptions.

No fool like an old fool.

Dr P,

"I always lie - in fact, I am lying to you now!" - Harry Mudd."

An old paradox but a good one.

Casino_Royale said:

Another pb.com thread?

"Why King Charles III will be the biggest disaster to hit the British monarchy since Charles I"

A little unfair on old Charles. A lot of the smaller places not already getting rid of the crown may well take the opportunity to do so upon his accession, but it isn't really much to do with him, but more perhaps they would have already done it had the Queen not been in place, and for many it's not worth causing a fuss until there is a change incoming.

Jamaica is probably worried as they've only just realised the Queen is immortal.

Casino_Royale said:

Another pb.com thread?

"Why King Charles III will be the biggest disaster to hit the British monarchy since Charles I"

Doesn't he plan on being called George 7th? Something to do with the name Charles being associated with adultery?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

Wasn't there a campaign (advert at least) in the Irish referendum on gay marriage all about 'take your family with you', with young people asking older people to come with them on this journey? I wonder if this 'write to gran' is supposed to be similar, but it has a lot less emotional resonance.

The staunch Remainer who harangued/tried to sabotage me today was a Gran: an old lady in her early 80s.

People never cease to surprise you, and you can't make assumptions.

No fool like an old fool.

Some Remainers can be just as rude in public as they are on here.

MP_SE said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

You are right - it's unbelievably patronising. Gran should reply about having a chat about the wisdom that comes with age!

I think one of the postcards BSE have made says something along the lines of, "I know I havn't talked to you in ages but I think you should vote to remain in the EU". I would imagine that would only serve to piss the grandparents off even more and do the opposite of what they are being asked to do.

Yes, it was something like that. Hideously misconceived.

It's horrific, I winced http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/eu-referendum-remain-campaign-tells-supporters-talk-to-gran

“We have already trialled these postcards at a number of the universities, where they have been shifted like hot cakes. So when young people next share a slice of cake and a cup of tea with their gran, they can tell them proudly that the positive, progressive and patriotic choice is to vote to remain.”

http://www.talktogran.co.uk/#intro
http://youtu.be/9dNFDKq6ly4

MP_SE said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

You are right - it's unbelievably patronising. Gran should reply about having a chat about the wisdom that comes with age!

I think one of the postcards BSE have made says something along the lines of, "I know I havn't talked to you in ages but I think you should vote to remain in the EU". I would imagine that would only serve to piss the grandparents off even more and do the opposite of what they are being asked to do.

I always liked the Talk to Frank piss takes:

http://tinyurl.com/jsshlft

kle4 said:

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

But then I find railing against 'the establishment' quite overblown much of the time, since one of the reasons are politicians have condensed around many samey positions and backgrounds is because that's what we the public have, to date, rewarded electorally. Won't always be that way, maybe things are changing, but they wouldn't be the way they are if it hadn't worked, to date.

The flaw in that analysis is that in most elections the public get offered essentially the same policies by both parties, with slightly different window dressing. So the election is largely decided on the perception of competence, or because the public are fed up with seeing the same faces on the TV. Rewarding competence and looking the part, has it's place of course, but it would be a stretch to see that as approval of any or all of the party's policy platform.

That isn't a flaw in my analysis, it's the whole point - the reason they offer us essentially the same with different window dressing is they've established that's what has worked (and though turnout is down from historic levels, it has gone up three times in a row). I don't say it will last forever, and maybe we are at the tipping point, or approaching it, but there's a reason they've been offering us pablum, and it's because they think we like it, or accept it at any rate, and so far we have. When it no longer works, they will shift pretty rapidly. Indeed, that may be what Labour is trying right now, and it's a question of if they've jumped too soon or people still want the same old shower delivered by the most competent.

I couldn't disagree more. Big Government, nanny state, creeping surveillance, EU, bank bail outs, following the US into every war - it's not an electorate-pleasing agenda, it's a powerful interest serving agenda. The electorate simply hasn't had a choice, and arguably still doesn't.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leave's frothing over the Cameron/Ashowdown/Kinnock photo is in sad contrast to when Blair and Major jointly fronted the Northern Ireland peace process. No one could accuse Major of liking the IRA (who'd tried to murder him) or Blair (who'd politically humiliated him), but he put that aside for what he believed was in the national interest. Not everyone (me included) thought the process would succeed, but no one questioned Major's wisdom or motives. We lived in more nuanced and understanding times back then. Now everything must be absolute.

You're comparing those of us wanting the UK to leave the EU to IRA terrorists?

Leave only have to be lucky once, Remain has to be lucky every time.

Very good.

If Remain wins we'll be saying post referendum about Leavers 'They haven't gone away you know'

Livingstone has threatened to go away. Hope so.

SeanT said:

So my Bhutan article came out. I recommend a visit.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bhutan-scenery-fit-for-royalty-htbd8mw6z?acs_cjd=true

It starts well, but the second sentence starts with a conjunction. And sets my head spinning.

SeanT said:

So my Bhutan article came out. I recommend a visit.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bhutan-scenery-fit-for-royalty-htbd8mw6z?acs_cjd=true

I read your piece in the Speccy. Enjoyed it very much. I don't agree with the conclusion (though I felt you were slightly tongue in cheek) because I don't think Europe can afford to turn away or heavily surcharge Chinese and Indian tourists. It's one of the few ways we have of getting a bit of the money we've spent back. I think instead we must find inventive ways of spreading the benefits of tourism to less developed (and prosperous) areas.

Not sure if this has been mentioned on here, but what a striking example of how the EU has got its tentacles into almost every corner of our national life, and the extent to which the UK public sector in particular has become so entwined with it.

'Over Half Of Electoral Commission Committee Members Have EU Conflicts Of Interest'

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/14/exclusive-half-electoral-commission-committee-members-eu-conflicts-interest/

MarkHopkins said:

weejonnie said:

GGGGOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A cat just walked over your keyboard.

Plato_Says said:

I'm astonished they focus grouped these with students, it's the grans who are the actual end target audience.

kle4 said:

If any PBers do get a postcard from a grandchild about the EU, I hope they feel willing the share the details, I think analysing the wording of such a card would be hilarious.

There's another campaign out for people from the continent to 'Hug a Brit' to get us to stay in as well. I make no comment.

Luckyguy1983 said:

You see no barriers to insurgent parties?

I see many barriers to insurgent parties, and I think UKIP in particularly have done about as well as could be expected. But my point is not so much about insurgent parties but what 'the establishment' offers. If discontentment with the bland, samey offering of the big two (formerly the big 2.5) was bad enough it would, even with the barriers to insurgent parties, start costing them, and they would change their offerings accordingly in order to combat those insurgent parties.

Labour members seem to feel the time to change their offering has come, to be even more distinct than before even if it means being labelled by some as extreme. We shall see in a few years if that is the case, and they are rewarded for striking a different tone.

Meanwhile, we know the Tories offered a referendum because of insurgent attitudes on the EU, and so they changed their position. If dissatisfaction in other areas rises, they too will change things up.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm astonished they focus grouped these with students, it's the grans who are the actual end target audience.

kle4 said:

If any PBers do get a postcard from a grandchild about the EU, I hope they feel willing the share the details, I think analysing the wording of such a card would be hilarious.

There's another campaign out for people from the continent to 'Hug a Brit' to get us to stay in as well. I make no comment.

You what? With our famously less touchy feely mannerisms? What silliness. As MTimT says, our personal space considerations are quite large.