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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
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Can't wait for politics to Start again.
What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?
The same as it is for Brazilians?
- Conservatism in London could be a bigger threat to the Union than nationalism in Edinburgh http://www.scotsman.com/news/henry-mcleish-unionists-sunk-by-a-perfect-storm-1-3053476
Hey Tim, how's the preseason going?
Oh...
and 2 :-)
"They did exist in 1945.
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "
In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.
Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.
Why a factor of 2 ? Why not 1.5 or 3 ?
I also don't like the 'fooled again' part of the LD-Con second coalition story - it says the problem would be 'getting it past' the party, which I'm sure is true, but that just demonstrates it was run by the party last time as well, so how were people fooled in any way? Because it didn't work out well? Because they fear a 'Tory'lite' agenda is a little too acceptable to the leadership of the party, as stated in the article? That doesn't hold much water to me. No-one was fooled last time - either they jumped ship immediately, or they decided initially it was worth the cost (and many now think that was a mistake) but it won't be again. That doesn't mean Clegg fooled anyone, he was just wrong about how it woud work out for them, but then that was always going to be hard.
And am I the only person who is not a Labour or EdM supporter who thinks more of him for shafting his brother? He was ruthless, and didn't allow familial feelings get in the way of what he thought was the best direction for his party, and therefore country (that he assumes his way is best for the party and country is a given, but that's the kind of arrogance political leaders need)
Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
Comparing Ed to Caesar.
Trident will be heavily modified. They will suddenly realise that existing subs can work another 5 years. After all, you only need missile to work !
27) Blacklisting is a scandal, and one that has operated for too long.
Incidentally, I see the Spanish Government remains cretinous.
"After the 2010 election I went round Brown's inner court and spoke to his closest allies – Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, Damian McBride, Spencer Livermore, Stan Greenberg and Deborah Mattinson – to understand why Gordon Brown was our greatest failure as prime minister in 200 years."
Thanks to TSE for an interesting selection of articles. They ranged from those I nodded sagely in agreement with to those which irritated and annoyed me ... which is pretty much the ideal response.
(braces self for abuse!)
I suppose I can see why desperate measures like that are proposed, as I don't really see a way to ensure a redressing of the gender imbalance.
Although what sort of quota should there be for ethnic minorities, or the disabled, to be represented in Parliament? Read a fascinating story today about the outgoing vice-president of Ecuador and his 4% disabled employees quota.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23692217
We're just an owner away from a Superbowl.
We're just an owner away
We're just an owner away
- as a fan would say, which of course I am not.
But this does looks like a big one.
The big question is what is Merkel going to do once ( presumably ) elected again. Does she do something for the history books and push Germany and its cash towards more European political and economic integration, and will she chuck Cameron something knowing she can't go down a integrationist route without some risk at least of driving the British further away which is not in Germany's interest IMO.
To add a little information to the debate, the link below is Network Rail's response to some of the alternative schemes that have been devised by opponents. As can be seen, it is a fairly thorough review, and none meet the strategic objectives of HS2.
Whether those strategic objectives are realistic are another matter ...
http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives.pdf
I'm not sure they're up to it though. Votes at 16 and compulsory voting might make for an appetising amuse bouche for 2010 Lib Dems, but it's not going to win over those who currently doubt that Labour's priorities are helping with practical problems.
Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'
Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10255451/Nigel-Farage-wants-Ukip-to-remain-a-bunch-of-amateurs.html
12% 2010 Con, 7% 2010 Lab, 23% 2010 LD 8% 2010 Other.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/SurvationMOS-Summer-Recess-Poll.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2swjJu2OE0&lc=NTFa3BTnWEn6BRlOXUqBZ0BpA7nMOHXWno3ch1A-7NU
Now all I need is some time to read them!
Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 1m
Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.
And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/wgilpin
But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?
And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
You are being tiresome. The Lebo and Norpoth model/paper is not covert Conservative Party propaganda. It is a sincere and independent attempt by genuine and qualified academics to create an accurate predictive model for UK General Elections.
L&N are quite open about their theory's weaknesses and the model's margins of error, but as it stands, it has proved to be as accurate a predictor of outcomes as any competing work.
A key input to their model is PM approval ratings among polling respondents who identify with the two main parties. So they look at, say, Cameron's ratings among Conservative voters and Labour voters.
In the case of the 1945 election, Churchill had led a National Government and there was no easy way to split out approvals from Conservative and Labour voters. Hence the need to 'split' Churchill's 87% approval rating, which was no doubt also inflated, independently of Churchill's party, by him being the victorious war leader.
1945 is also the first in the sequence of elections modelled by L&N using their retrospective 'electoral cycle' analysis. You will note from their report that error margins, as a trend, fall as the series develops.
Why not read the paper in full? You will see for yourself what the authors are up to. And it is certainly not "working backwards to find the answer [they] want".
Given the increase by the Treasury in the risk assessment from the usual P50 to P95 (see my post earlier in the week), which accounts for most of the recent cost increase, it is suggestive that some in the Treasury are trying to kill the project.
Which is a shame, as it is needed IMHO. And the anti's who use such practices (such as the IEA) need to be careful: any schemes they are in favour of (roads, anyone?) will be treated in exactly the same manner ...
And I was right. It doesn't mention freight or capacity. These journalists are idiots.
Have you seen this
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1876690
We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.
Or perhaps not... ;-)
1. Data going back to 2007.
2. An explanation of the cause of the fall in living standards.
Mervyn King, in many speeches and reports made both before and after Cameron became PM, set out the consequences for living standards which would result from and were caused by the 2007-9 crash.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed causing injury to multiple victims. Trying to blame their continuing symptoms on the safe driver of a new car is just pure effrontery.
Martin Boon is going to be on, discussing Ed
I'd skip over comment 24 on the first page though
"You can conclude that Sean Thomas has a mental illness"
search for: "Internal Treasury concerns mount over hs2"
The best odds on Spurs being in the Top 4 are now 13/8
Yet Ladbrokes has Spurs at 11/5 to 'win' the Premier League without the Big 3..... Liverpool being 2-1 and Arse 6-4.
Erm isn't the latter the bet to take or is there something in the small print about the big 3 bet, do they have to come behind the big 3?
Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.
Mainly because those on the centre and centre-left are generally more intelligent and thoughtful, whereas those out there on the Right tend to be more slack-jawed, reactionary, slightly under-evolved or stuck in their teenage years.
However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
Comedy fops.
Anyone spot the problem?
Partisan temporal relevance?
*This can be reversed so that positive happenings are really down to a previous government's efforts coming to fruition, where your party was that previous government.
http://youtu.be/g4GvG0WeKOc
Night all.
There are limits of course, but even if it won't always be convincing, I can't begrudge a first term government heavily leaning on the strategy.
Have a bit on both
http://youtu.be/4ATJ23ftuho
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3
Ladbrokes: Ed Miliband cut from 14/1 to 10/1 to be replaced as Labour leader this year. #newsnight
http://bit.ly/13CmhbX
Personally I think Spurs are very strong, and could finish above one of the "Big 3", as could Arsenal, who are always underestimated.