my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
I'm not posh. Really. My dad was a rather well-known novelist in his time but I am SERIOUSLY not posh.
SO - did you see my wild theory on the last thread.
Stoked by Lineker's tweet, a couple of 'what if' articles but just just what if, AVB and Bale are still great mates and this is Spurs taking a punt on Bale + the rest making a massive go for top 3 and certainly 4 in the CL places this year?
I would LOVE it Love IT as Mr Keegan once ranted but 1/7 odds on RM suggests not....
I thought Bale was this shy, quiet, goes and stays with his mum kind of guy, being a Galactico wouldn't seem to have fitted with this? On a human level I fear for him at RM with his young family.
my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
I'm not posh. Really. My dad was a rather well-known novelist in his time but I am SERIOUSLY not posh.
You are being tiresome. The Lebo and Norpoth model/paper is not covert Conservative Party propaganda. It is a sincere and independent attempt by genuine and qualified academics to create an accurate predictive model for UK General Elections.
L&N are quite open about their theory's weaknesses and the model's margins of error, but as it stands, it has proved to be as accurate a predictor of outcomes as any competing work.
A key input to their model is PM approval ratings among polling respondents who identify with the two main parties. So they look at, say, Cameron's ratings among Conservative voters and Labour voters.
In the case of the 1945 election, Churchill had led a National Government and there was no easy way to split out approvals from Conservative and Labour voters. Hence the need to 'split' Churchill's 87% approval rating, which was no doubt also inflated, independently of Churchill's party, by him being the victorious war leader.
1945 is also the first in the sequence of elections modelled by L&N using their retrospective 'electoral cycle' analysis. You will note from their report that error margins, as a trend, fall as the series develops.
Why not read the paper in full? You will see for yourself what the authors are up to. And it is certainly not "working backwards to find the answer [they] want".
Have you read the papers?
They look at the PM rating from the population as a whole, and the two-party share.
They start their analysis with 1929, I think, not 1945.
Interestingly, Rod's use of the Lebo and Norpoth model does not follow the 1945 precedent and make an adjustment for Cameron being the leader of a Coalition government. If you make a suitably modest adjustment it falls into line with the swingback from by-election swing model.
That is a forecast for a mirror image of 2010 - Labour short of a majority, but with enough seats to make a Con-Lib coalition impractical.
Spurs will always find a way to finish below Arsenal. Sad, but true.
I know and every year the hope grows that this year will be different....
it never is.
Lawrenson's reason on the BBC site for predicting Spurs 5th, Goners 4th?
You can guess.
Because Arsenal always find a way to come 4th, and Spurs you can always rely on to let you down....
Hope is the killer. Abandon it and you can only be pleasantly surprised. That said, that Spurs midfield looks like it could be very strong and Soldado is a great signing, while Lloris is a top, top keeper. The full backs are a worry, but everywhere else we look to be very competitive. 5th.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
How the hell do you reduce a13% deficit and not affect living standards then? Anyone with half a brain knew this when they voted last time round. Liam Byrne understood there's no more money. Thrre again there are the wishful thinkers...
They could have cut government spending rather than raising taxes.
Well preferably, a few less compliance officers, walking path advisors ( no really, I was doorstepped by one ) and £100k council jobs ( I remember seeing three advertised for Aberdeen I think just before the last election and another £95k one for good measure) with associated pension rights might well have helped, but to be fair it still would've taken demand out of the economy and resulted in reduced living standards.
2001ish - 2008 we were just on an unsustainable debt fuelled binge resulting in a false living standard. A period of retrenchment was inevitable. To have believed otherwise was frankly delusional. Sadly G. Brown couldn't see that his tax base to fund the increase in the size of the State payroll was built on sand.
There's a debate on how much/where to cut etc but the basic facts that we were ( and are ) consuming more than we produce are pretty obvious.
Spurs will always find a way to finish below Arsenal. Sad, but true.
I know and every year the hope grows that this year will be different....
it never is.
Lawrenson's reason on the BBC site for predicting Spurs 5th, Goners 4th?
You can guess.
Because Arsenal always find a way to come 4th, and Spurs you can always rely on to let you down....
Hope is the killer. Abandon it and you can only be pleasantly surprised. That said, that Spurs midfield looks like it could be very strong and Soldado is a great signing, while Lloris is a top, top keeper. The full backs are a worry, but everywhere else we look to be very competitive. 5th.
Spurs will always find a way to finish below Arsenal. Sad, but true.
I know and every year the hope grows that this year will be different....
it never is.
Lawrenson's reason on the BBC site for predicting Spurs 5th, Goners 4th?
You can guess.
Because Arsenal always find a way to come 4th, and Spurs you can always rely on to let you down....
Hope is the killer. Abandon it and you can only be pleasantly surprised. That said, that Spurs midfield looks like it could be very strong and Soldado is a great signing, while Lloris is a top, top keeper. The full backs are a worry, but everywhere else we look to be very competitive. 5th.
Full backs? Kyle Walker is one of the best right-backs in the league, if not the best.
@Carl - Walker is excellent going forward, but he gets caught out with his positioning in defensive situations too often for my liking. He is good, but not a top 4 player.
Kevin Maguire's advice as to how Ed M can rescue the situation (item 3) is amusing:
He needs plans to raise living standards, guarantee full employment, outlaw zero-hours contracts, axe the Bedroom Tax, care for the elderly and save the NHS.
Right, should be a doddle. Why ever did Ed not think of that?
Few full backs these days don't get caught out, as in the modern game they're attackers more than Neville-type defenders.
Leighton Baines is one of the very few who does both jobs superbly, which is why he's rare and world-class. Walker's younger than that, and will learn. I really, really rate him.
Some Spurs fans like to paint themselves as a little club that are over performing when they finish only just below Arsenal... Embarrassing damage limitation attempts... the truth is both clubs are historically around the same size in money spent, fanbase etc just that Arsenal have had better managers for 25 years or so...
Here's a little graph to teach Wenger doubters a history lesson
Arsene's Eyes (@Arsenes_Eyes) 19/08/2013 11:15 We want our #Arsenal back? Useful visual aid for those that see those pre-Wenger years through rose tinted glasses. pic.twitter.com/33jL1NbUHg
Few full backs these days don't get caught out, as in the modern game they're attackers more than Neville-type defenders.
Leighton Baines is one of the very few who does both jobs superbly, which is why he's rare and world-class. Walker's younger than that, and will learn. I really, really rate him.
If i were a Spurs fan wanting a bet I'd be tempted by 8/1 w/o City and United. AVB is going to bring in half a dozen class players, if they come of they'll come off big style, if they don't then Spurs will probably finish fifth. Anyway 8/1 is OK for the entertainment value
My significant football bet is that I've bought Aston Villa on the points spreads on SPIN at 44.5. I'm happy running with that for now (it's already at 46-47.5). I rate Paul Lambert.
They look at the PM rating from the population as a whole, and the two-party share.
They start their analysis with 1929, I think, not 1945.
Interestingly, Rod's use of the Lebo and Norpoth model does not follow the 1945 precedent and make an adjustment for Cameron being the leader of a Coalition government. If you make a suitably modest adjustment it falls into line with the swingback from by-election swing model.
That is a forecast for a mirror image of 2010 - Labour short of a majority, but with enough seats to make a Con-Lib coalition impractical.
L&N's retrospective analysis uses data from the 1929 election onward but 1945 is the first election for which they have published a model result.
You can argue the case for that 'a coalition' adjustment' should apply to a 2015 prediction but so far this has not been proposed by L&N. If I remember correctly, Sir Roderick did say that he expected the current model to be updated and a new paper released prior to 2015. So perhaps we need to wait for the update.
The key point about 1945 was that the National Coalition during WWII involved both major parties whereas the 2010-15 Coalition involves only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. As L&N have 'ignored' the third party (and all other parties) in primary inputs to all modelled elections, then the question arises as to why they should change this practice in 2015.
On "PM rating from the population as a whole", this is not input to the model directly. Indirectly it influences the input as follows:
Third-party support:We reason that a given satisfaction rating is more helpful to a prime minister as support for the two major parties decreases. That is, assuming that third-party and minor-party voters are not satisfied with the prime minister, we are interested in the proportion of two-party voters that are satisfied. Thus, we divide the PM satisfaction rating by the proportion of the two-party vote. These figures are based on the aggregate vote intentions from polls taken the same months as the PM question.
Soldado ew top goalscorer 16/1 is a good bet too esp if Bale goes... Van Persie was massive at 9/2 pre season
Maybe but Van Persie if fit takes all the beating.
As our pen taker and having had 0 all season last year, I'm expecting a flurry of pens this year, especially with more players likely getting in the box - not so many Parkers sitting back and Bales scoring wonder-goals outside the box.
Some Spurs fans like to paint themselves as a little club that are over performing when they finish only just below Arsenal... Embarrassing damage limitation attempts... the truth is both clubs are historically around the same size in money spent, fanbase etc just that Arsenal have had better managers for 25 years or so...
Here's a little graph to teach Wenger doubters a history lesson
Arsene's Eyes (@Arsenes_Eyes) 19/08/2013 11:15 We want our #Arsenal back? Useful visual aid for those that see those pre-Wenger years through rose tinted glasses. pic.twitter.com/33jL1NbUHg
Absolutely spot on, except you did not mention Dein. What has made the last 20 years or so that more painful is that it could have been Spurs if we'd had the right people in charge. Having Sugar as chairman when the PL started was an absolute disaster for us. I remember going to Arsenal games in the early 80s. You could have laid out blankets for a picnic there was so much space on the North Bank and in the Clock End.
Few full backs these days don't get caught out, as in the modern game they're attackers more than Neville-type defenders.
Leighton Baines is one of the very few who does both jobs superbly, which is why he's rare and world-class. Walker's younger than that, and will learn. I really, really rate him.
Walker had a great first season and dipped massively last year. If he can get it back he'll be a top player, but I thought he looked dodgy again on Sunday against Palace. Very much hope you're right though. Rose is definitely not up to scratch.
Some Spurs fans like to paint themselves as a little club that are over performing when they finish only just below Arsenal... Embarrassing damage limitation attempts... the truth is both clubs are historically around the same size in money spent, fanbase etc just that Arsenal have had better managers for 25 years or so...
Here's a little graph to teach Wenger doubters a history lesson
Arsene's Eyes (@Arsenes_Eyes) 19/08/2013 11:15 We want our #Arsenal back? Useful visual aid for those that see those pre-Wenger years through rose tinted glasses. pic.twitter.com/33jL1NbUHg
Absolutely spot on, except you did not mention Dein. What has made the last 20 years or so that more painful is that it could have been Spurs if we'd had the right people in charge. Having Sugar as chairman when the PL started was an absolute disaster for us. I remember going to Arsenal games in the early 80s. You could have laid out blankets for a picnic there was so much space on the North Bank and in the Clock End.
It's what makes the Wenger haters so laughable.
Dein leaving probably has a lot to do with the selling of stars each season with no comparable replacements
Fair to say all clubs have bigger attendances when successful and less so when struggling I think
Incidentally, anyone who wants to close out their open position on the Sporting Index Most Seats market need only email SPIN, and they'll give you a price without reopening their market.
@TSE I wouldn't hold your breath for the Guardian endorsement of the Blues at the next election. But on the specific point of the editorial, the Guardian (and the Conservatives) are 100% right.
my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
I'm not posh. Really. My dad was a rather well-known novelist in his time but I am SERIOUSLY not posh.
Went off the rails a bit due to some personality issues, perhaps.
But posh.
Meh. In my house we used to call dinner "tea" - and it was eaten at 6pm. My grandmothers were bal-maidens: they worked the leftover rocks in the tin mines. All my folks were Cornish working class who either went to chapel or drank to oblivion. All of them.
I know I am at risk of sounding like a Monty Python Yorkshireman but this is the case. My dad did the social heavy lifting: he went from a Carnkie (google it) tin mining background to an Oxford education but he was still - and indeed is - Cornish working class, my mum is the same, but arguably even plebbier.
Then my Dad single-handedly elevated us into the middle class - and I went and became a smack addict and went to prison on a rape charge.
I am probably the most disreputable person in the entire universe, barring Genghis Khan's bingo-playing brother who got thrown out of his Ulaan Bator council flat.
On the other hand, I do know how to wind up posh lefties.
Goodnight! And Kernow bys vyken.
Quite a protest there, posh boy, for all the get-out-of-jail-free "irony".
Worked out how to crack the "not-posh leftie" market yet, or does that not compute?
@TSE I wouldn't hold your breath for the Guardian endorsement of the Blues at the next election. But on the specific point of the editorial, the Guardian (and the Conservatives) are 100% right.
I'm fairly certain if the Guardian did endorse the Blues, the world would end.
My wife's family used to have their tea at 5. It was horrific. For a London boy used to eating at 7 having the last meal done before Neighbours was a nightmare. In fact, I blame them for my mid-life lardiness. I was always hungry again by 8 so when I was staying I often went down the village pub and had another dinner and a few pints to wash it down. All those carbs waited patiently until I hit 40 and then exploded on me.
@TSE On the plus side, NHS future costs would be drastically reduced after the cull of the bien pensant middle classes who'd had coronaries.
Very true.
Just think of the fun SeanT's alter ego would have at CiF, please Guardian endorse the Tories at the next election, for the fun and the gaiety of the nation
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
You need to establish cause and effect.
The fall in living standards was caused by an excessive credit bubble bursting, just as most of the increase in borrowing and debt was caused by tax revenues collapsing in response to the crisis.
The way to solve the problem is to balance the country's current account (so it spends only what it earns in tax, and does not borrow one in four pounds spent as under Brown). Then to create a surplus on the current account sufficient to draw down the debt to a sustainable level (say 50-60% of GDP) over a reasonable period (say 15-20 years). And, at the same time, within the above constraints, rebalance the economy towards exports of high value added goods and services such that the country has a positive trade balance, is less dependent on consumption for growth and is structurally competitive in the global economy. And finally, to stimulate sustainable long term growth consistent with the above changes.
Do all that and there may be a chance in a decade or two to expand the provision of state services.
Then and only then, might the country be disposed towards forgiving Brown and the Labour government he led for causing the problems in the first place.
My parents have tea at a ridiculously early time. They finish eating by 6pm - or 6.30 on a very late night.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship, were watching a report about how the striking miners were having to give up their VCRs. My mother laughed heartily at this report, as though we were supposed to feel sorry for them.
It was some years later before my parents got their first VCR.
My parents have tea at a ridiculously early time. They finish eating by 6pm - or 6.30 on a very late night.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship, were watching a report about how the striking miners were having to give up their VCRs. My mother laughed heartily at this report, as though we were supposed to feel sorry for them.
It was some years later before my parents got their first VCR.
I'd be surprised if that many miners had VCRs in the early 80s.
@SouthamObserver I'm quite prepared to be proved to have a faulty memory (I know only too well how vivid recollections can be shown to be fictions). This was, however, one of those moments that stuck in the mind.
@SouthamObserver I'm quite prepared to be proved to have a faulty memory (I know only too well how vivid recollections can be shown to be fictions). This was, however, one of those moments that stuck in the mind.
Living in South Yorkshire in the 80s, the miners were very hard up.
The VCRs weren't owned outright by the miners, but rented/with a final option to buy from radio rentals.
When they couldn't afford the repayments, they returned them to radio rentals, who were desperate to offload the second hand VCRs, thus our first VCR was a second hand one returned by by a miner to radio rentals.
@SouthamObserver I'm quite prepared to be proved to have a faulty memory (I know only too well how vivid recollections can be shown to be fictions). This was, however, one of those moments that stuck in the mind.
It could be me. I just remember them becoming commonplace later than that. I know we didn't get ours til the end of the 80s.
Never heard any southerner call dinner tea before, does that make me posh? Yes please!
My wife's lot were outside toilet, rural Warwickshire, working class. It was always tea at theirs. It was dinner at mine in North London. But maybe my parents had pretensions. Tea was what you had on Sunday afternoon. And to drink.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship
Lol! Superbly droll.
I wonder, actually, on a tangent, if this is why there aren't any good Rightwing comedians. It's always "droll". Which I love, personally - AveryLP is consistently funny.
But people generally prefer comedians to talk about anything, preferably with a bit of feeling, which can only come from the left ish. Perhaps.
The UKIP website seems to have become much more responsive. Their Google pagespeed score has improved, so this is possibly just improved web server configuration.
my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
I'm
NOT POSH.
Posh.
Went off the rails a bit due to some personality issues, perhaps.
But posh.
M
On the other hand, I do know how to wind up posh lefties.
Goodnight! And Kernow bys vyken.
Quite a protest there, posh boy, for all the get-out-of-jail-free "irony".
Worked out how to crack the "not-posh leftie" market yet, or does that not compute?
There's no irony. Thanks to my background, I know lefties, and I hate lefties. I hate people like you. Indeed, I hate YOU. It's not quantum thermodynamics
And I hate you BECAUSE I know you. I know how slime like you think and feel and smell. I hate all you do, and everything you represent.
I hate you because of what you are. I hate the repulsive left - people like YOU - because it has betrayed ordinary Brits for 50 years, in everything from Europe to immigration to housing. I loathe everything about you and I loathe everyone here like you and I sincerely hope that all your pets die of face cancer.
Is that sufficiently irony-free?
*worried*
I can only re-iterate my question. Worked out the non-posh lefty market yet, or does it not compute with you, posh boy?
my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. You didn't just hit a nerve you drilled vigorously into the f*cking SeanT Partridge brain stem, or so it seems.
You should do a tired faux outrage column on that carl.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship
Lol! Superbly droll.
What do you consider droll about that? My father was a printer, my mother worked as a lab technician in a school. They saw I was bright, both were very committed to education, Suffolk state education at the time was terrible and they spent all their money for many years on my schooling. I owe them everything, and I shall always be incredibly grateful to them.
Should there be a poll on how many of the comments under the Caroline Lucas 'Why I risked arrest' story suggest the true title should be 'Why I really hoped to be arrested'? I'm thinking it will be a lot.
People who think Caroline attended the protest just to get arrested obviously dont know many Green party activists. While relatively focused on elections (more so than UKIP has been in the past) there is nothing the average Green party activist likes more than a good old protest and most have a good arrest story or two to tell. Green party activists were being arrested at Balcombe for quite some time before this week and it was really no surprise that Caroline ended up joining them.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship
Lol! Superbly droll.
What do you consider droll about that? My father was a printer, my mother worked as a lab technician in a school. They saw I was bright, both were very committed to education, Suffolk state education at the time was terrible and they spent all their money for many years on my schooling. I owe them everything, and I shall always be incredibly grateful to them.
Good on you Antifrank. My parents were similar: never bought their own home but rented all their lives so that they could give us a wonderful education. And I have been grateful for that all my life not because of the jobs it has allowed me to do but for the worlds it opened up for me, then and now.
If you can read and ask and explore and ask the question "why" nothing is closed to you.
I'm bemused by the retro idea that the best comedians are on the Left.
Who are they? Ben Elton? Alexei Sayle? How old is this shit? There ARE no good modern comedians on the left. The liberal-Leftist viewpoint IS the establishment, therefore it cannot be amusing and satirical. By definition.
DOOF.
As a Primrose Hill lefty, you are PB's finest comedian!
Ed Miliband, swift and decisive, not crap at all...
The Labour leader risks dismaying supporters further by waiting three weeks to deliver the address at the TUC conference on September 10.
Ed Miliband has chosen an audience of union bosses to hear his first speech after a summer dominated by criticism that he is failing to get his message across to ordinary voters.
Ed Miliband, swift and decisive, not crap at all...
The Labour leader risks dismaying supporters further by waiting three weeks to deliver the address at the TUC conference on September 10.
Ed Miliband has chosen an audience of union bosses to hear his first speech after a summer dominated by criticism that he is failing to get his message across to ordinary voters.
I always get a bit worried when weeks are spent writing a speech - IME the longer and greater the number of iterations, the worse and more disjointed it gets. Inevitably bits that were binned get stuck back in and sit alongside new bits written by others/tinkered with.
Then it gets far too long so the red pen comes out... EdM's speeches aren't riveting at the best of times - I hope he does a good one just to add a bit of umph to #SaveEd. We can't have him drowning prematurely.
"Alistair Darling and David Blunkett add to pressure on Ed Miliband Former chancellor says Labour must start making clear what it would do differently when in power"
It seems those who believed the account from the Met have as so often been left with egg on their face. Bindman's have confirmed that their solicitor was blocked from meeting Miranda for the first eight hours of the nine hour interview.
"Gwendolen Morgan, a solicitor at Bindmans who is representing Mr Miranda in challenging the legality of his detention, said: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
So in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Still no poll movement despite the PB Tory hysterics?
Well there's been a bit of movement Camerons ratings on being decisive, a natural leader, good in a crisis and honest have fallen by 5,2,3 and 2. Anecdotier must've missed that.
Strange how the real world is so removed from PB Toryworld
Hello, I am not who you think I am. Thought you might like this little reminder from HMRC:
Do you need to fill in a tax return?
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) will contact you, usually in April or May, if they think you need to fill in a tax return.
You'll receive a letter which explains when you'll need to send your tax return back. If you've previously sent your tax return on paper, you may receive a paper tax return.
If HMRC hasn't contacted you, but you think you may need to complete a tax return, follow the link below to check. You need to tell HMRC within six months of the end of the tax year that you need a tax return, or you may have to pay a penalty.
If HMRC asks you to complete a tax return but you think you don't need to, let HMRC know as soon as you can. You'll have to pay a penalty if you forget and don’t send your tax return in.
Don't forget that not declaring ALL your income is an offence.
One of the few laudable features of the PB Tories was their seemingly genuine commitment to less repressive government. They rightly castigated the Labour Government under Blair and Brown for their flagrant disregard of civil liberties.
Depressingly apart from Richard Tindall the outrage of the rest has been shown to be nothing more than partisan and worthless.
This Miranda person was detained for 9 hours..big deal .. it takes seven hours to get across from Gib to Spain.. The security people have a job to do, if they thought he had info that was not in the interests of this country to be published then they had every right to detain him... for all of nine hours. Terrorist only have to get lucky once..
One of the few laudable features of the PB Tories was their seemingly genuine commitment to less repressive government. They rightly castigated the Labour Government under Blair and Brown for their flagrant disregard of civil liberties.
Depressingly apart from Richard Tindall the outrage of the rest has been shown to be nothing more than partisan and worthless.
The law was written by a Labour government.
Given the Guardian's reckless regard to data security with the Wikileaks information, would you trust them with any more secrets?
I see Unite is expanding its recruitment pool - this has a distinct April 1st feel to it.
"LABOUR’S union paymasters Unite have made how-to videos for schoolkids on organising protests against big business. The explosive propaganda brands bosses as evil and untrustworthy. And it compares those campaigning against corporations to Germans who lost their lives opposing the NAZIS. The Unite pack — led by militant firebrand Len McCluskey — says pupils should discuss whether some demos fail because they’re not “threatening enough”.
Teachers are encouraged to design protest placards — and create “catchy slogans” that could be chanted at demos. The five cartoon shorts show teens in town Tethergo — an anagram for Together — who campaign to stop Panton Inc launching “big plans to privatise the entire area”. They recycle old placards from the miners’ strike to oppose Panton’s plans to close a community centre and launch Facebook and Twitter campaigns... http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5086917/Labour-union-make-how-to-organise-protests-videos-for-schoolchildren.html
It seems those who believed the account from the Met have as so often been left with egg on their face. Bindman's have confirmed that their solicitor was blocked from meeting Miranda for the first eight hours of the nine hour interview.
"Gwendolen Morgan, a solicitor at Bindmans who is representing Mr Miranda in challenging the legality of his detention, said: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
So in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?
"Given the Guardian's reckless regard to data security with the Wikileaks information, would you trust them with any more secrets?"
You are deliberately missing the point. Follow the example of David Davis. I'm beginning to think choosing the vacuous Cameron over him was the biggest mistake the Tories ever made
It seems those who believed the account from the Met have as so often been left with egg on their face. Bindman's have confirmed that their solicitor was blocked from meeting Miranda for the first eight hours of the nine hour interview.
"Gwendolen Morgan, a solicitor at Bindmans who is representing Mr Miranda in challenging the legality of his detention, said: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
So in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?
I'd love to know what the proper procedures and rules are for such occasions; it might clear up a great deal. I asked a few questions about it yesterday but got no answers.
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
"Given the Guardian's reckless regard to data security with the Wikileaks information, would you trust them with any more secrets?"
You are deliberately missing the point. Follow the example of David Davis. I'm beginning to think choosing the vacuous Cameron over him was the biggest mistake the Tories ever made
I disagree with David Davis frequently, although admire the stance he takes on things. In this case, he has some valid points, but I disagreed with others when I heard him on the radio yesterday.
Answer the question: should the Guardian have access to sensitive data, after they way they treated the Wikileaks data? Thanks to their behaviour, the unredacted information was released into the wild.
Incompetence does not really sum it up. If it had been the Mail or the Sun, you would be spitting blood. Was it okay just because it was the Guardian?
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
I'm not suggesting he should or shouldn't have accepted a lawyer offered by the Met.
The issue is was he offered one.
Bindman's say: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
But the Graun yesterday said that he was offered one and didn't trust them.
Still no poll movement despite the PB Tory hysterics?
Well there's been a bit of movement Camerons ratings on being decisive, a natural leader, good in a crisis and honest have fallen by 5,2,3 and 2. Anecdotier must've missed that.
Strange how the real world is so removed from PB Toryworld
Hello, I am not who you think I am. Thought you might like this little reminder from HMRC:
Do you need to fill in a tax return?
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) will contact you, usually in April or May, if they think you need to fill in a tax return.
You'll receive a letter which explains when you'll need to send your tax return back. If you've previously sent your tax return on paper, you may receive a paper tax return.
If HMRC hasn't contacted you, but you think you may need to complete a tax return, follow the link below to check. You need to tell HMRC within six months of the end of the tax year that you need a tax return, or you may have to pay a penalty.
If HMRC asks you to complete a tax return but you think you don't need to, let HMRC know as soon as you can. You'll have to pay a penalty if you forget and don’t send your tax return in.
Don't forget that not declaring ALL your income is an offence.
Just heard Labours great white hope on radio 4. she was bloody awful! Fortunately Malcolm Rifkind is just as bad. Unusually he sounds like an old buffer.
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
I'm not suggesting he should or shouldn't have accepted a lawyer offered by the Met.
The issue is was he offered one.
Bindman's say: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
But the Graun yesterday said that he was offered one and didn't trust them.
Which brings me back to my questions: what are the procedures for such occasions? Are you allowed to choose your own representative, or do you have to accept the one offered? if you can choose your own, can the authorities reject it for any reason?
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
I'm not suggesting he should or shouldn't have accepted a lawyer offered by the Met.
The issue is was he offered one.
Bindman's say: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
But the Graun yesterday said that he was offered one and didn't trust them.
Which brings me back to my questions: what are the procedures for such occasions? Are you allowed to choose your own representative, or do you have to accept the one offered? if you can choose your own, can the authorities reject it for any reason?
Is the question to ask - don't know the answer, I'm afraid....
(Edit: That said, the "incorrect..." quote from Bindman is pretty black & white. They didn't say "it is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered [insert word: appropriate/his choice of/etc...] legal representation.")
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
I'm not suggesting he should or shouldn't have accepted a lawyer offered by the Met.
The issue is was he offered one.
Bindman's say: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
But the Graun yesterday said that he was offered one and didn't trust them.
Which brings me back to my questions: what are the procedures for such occasions? Are you allowed to choose your own representative, or do you have to accept the one offered? if you can choose your own, can the authorities reject it for any reason?
Is the question to ask - don't know the answer, I'm afraid....
My understanding is that Mr Miranda's own solicitor wasn't exactly on-the-spot but eventually arrived several hours later. But in the interim he was offered and declined a duty one. That seems perfectly reasonable to me. And he was held for 8 not 9 hours [nit-picks]
lSo in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Then the Guardian lied that he had declined legal representation?
"He was offered a lawyer and a cup of water, but he refused both because he did not trust the authorities."
lSo in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Then the Guardian lied that he had declined legal representation?
"He was offered a lawyer and a cup of water, but he refused both because he did not trust the authorities."
Isn't the whole 'declining a drink' so that they can't then get your fingerprints/DNA when clearing up? That seems to be very common in CSI style TV shows so assume its standard practice.
Comments
it never is.
Lawrenson's reason on the BBC site for predicting Spurs 5th, Goners 4th?
You can guess.
Because Arsenal always find a way to come 4th, and Spurs you can always rely on to let you down....
Stoked by Lineker's tweet, a couple of 'what if' articles but just just what if, AVB and Bale are still great mates and this is Spurs taking a punt on Bale + the rest making a massive go for top 3 and certainly 4 in the CL places this year?
I would LOVE it Love IT as Mr Keegan once ranted but 1/7 odds on RM suggests not....
I thought Bale was this shy, quiet, goes and stays with his mum kind of guy, being a Galactico wouldn't seem to have fitted with this? On a human level I fear for him at RM with his young family.
Went off the rails a bit due to some personality issues, perhaps.
But posh.
They look at the PM rating from the population as a whole, and the two-party share.
They start their analysis with 1929, I think, not 1945.
Interestingly, Rod's use of the Lebo and Norpoth model does not follow the 1945 precedent and make an adjustment for Cameron being the leader of a Coalition government. If you make a suitably modest adjustment it falls into line with the swingback from by-election swing model.
That is a forecast for a mirror image of 2010 - Labour short of a majority, but with enough seats to make a Con-Lib coalition impractical.
2001ish - 2008 we were just on an unsustainable debt fuelled binge resulting in a false living standard. A period of retrenchment was inevitable. To have believed otherwise was frankly delusional. Sadly G. Brown couldn't see that his tax base to fund the increase in the size of the State payroll was built on sand.
There's a debate on how much/where to cut etc but the basic facts that we were ( and are ) consuming more than we produce are pretty obvious.
He needs plans to raise living standards, guarantee full employment, outlaw zero-hours contracts, axe the Bedroom Tax, care for the elderly and save the NHS.
Right, should be a doddle. Why ever did Ed not think of that?
Few full backs these days don't get caught out, as in the modern game they're attackers more than Neville-type defenders.
Leighton Baines is one of the very few who does both jobs superbly, which is why he's rare and world-class. Walker's younger than that, and will learn. I really, really rate him.
Here's a little graph to teach Wenger doubters a history lesson
Arsene's Eyes (@Arsenes_Eyes)
19/08/2013 11:15
We want our #Arsenal back? Useful visual aid for those that see those pre-Wenger years through rose tinted glasses. pic.twitter.com/33jL1NbUHg
(not a Sperz fan, but like the tip)
http://www.goal.com/en-india/news/2292/editorials/2010/04/13/1877193/special-ten-of-the-funniest-names-in-football
Wolfgang Wolf, ex manager of Wolfsburg is a fav of mine
The Toon dark horses for relegation. Stoke under Hughes (how does he keep getting jobs?) a RodCrosby style "certainty" for the drop.
You can argue the case for that 'a coalition' adjustment' should apply to a 2015 prediction but so far this has not been proposed by L&N. If I remember correctly, Sir Roderick did say that he expected the current model to be updated and a new paper released prior to 2015. So perhaps we need to wait for the update.
The key point about 1945 was that the National Coalition during WWII involved both major parties whereas the 2010-15 Coalition involves only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. As L&N have 'ignored' the third party (and all other parties) in primary inputs to all modelled elections, then the question arises as to why they should change this practice in 2015.
On "PM rating from the population as a whole", this is not input to the model directly. Indirectly it influences the input as follows:
Third-party support:We reason that a given satisfaction rating is more helpful to a prime minister as support for the two major parties decreases. That is, assuming that third-party and minor-party voters are not satisfied with the prime minister, we are interested in the proportion of two-party voters that are satisfied. Thus, we divide the PM satisfaction rating by the proportion of the two-party vote. These figures are based on the aggregate vote intentions from polls taken the same months as the PM question.
With William Hill
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/rudd-and-abbott-prepare-for-tonights-second-debate-in-brisbane/4901022
As our pen taker and having had 0 all season last year, I'm expecting a flurry of pens this year, especially with more players likely getting in the box - not so many Parkers sitting back and Bales scoring wonder-goals outside the box.
If only to get my Yvette bet in, I then buy Bale and lease him to Spurs for the season.
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-06-19/house-of-commons-deputy-speaker-nigel-evans-arrested/
In addition, Eric Joyce managed to get arrested twice.
A rare mispricing by Shadsy.
I believe I am now obliged to hate him.
Dein leaving probably has a lot to do with the selling of stars each season with no comparable replacements
Fair to say all clubs have bigger attendances when successful and less so when struggling I think
I'd be surprised if they didn't trade single figures for relegation at some point... But it's just a hunch, I've not looked into it that much .
Hung parliaments: better luck next time
The Conservative party, like it or not, is sensibly holding a quiet debate about how to make a coalition more effective in future
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/20/hung-parliament-conservatives-coalition-editorial
Worked out how to crack the "not-posh leftie" market yet, or does that not compute?
Though comment is free would be fun.
Just think of the fun SeanT's alter ego would have at CiF, please Guardian endorse the Tories at the next election, for the fun and the gaiety of the nation
The fall in living standards was caused by an excessive credit bubble bursting, just as most of the increase in borrowing and debt was caused by tax revenues collapsing in response to the crisis.
The way to solve the problem is to balance the country's current account (so it spends only what it earns in tax, and does not borrow one in four pounds spent as under Brown). Then to create a surplus on the current account sufficient to draw down the debt to a sustainable level (say 50-60% of GDP) over a reasonable period (say 15-20 years). And, at the same time, within the above constraints, rebalance the economy towards exports of high value added goods and services such that the country has a positive trade balance, is less dependent on consumption for growth and is structurally competitive in the global economy. And finally, to stimulate sustainable long term growth consistent with the above changes.
Do all that and there may be a chance in a decade or two to expand the provision of state services.
Then and only then, might the country be disposed towards forgiving Brown and the Labour government he led for causing the problems in the first place.
However, the moment that the difference in class perspectives really hit me was during a news presentation about the miners' strike in 1984. My parents, who had scrimped and saved every last penny to send me to public school on a scholarship, were watching a report about how the striking miners were having to give up their VCRs. My mother laughed heartily at this report, as though we were supposed to feel sorry for them.
It was some years later before my parents got their first VCR.
The UKIP website seems to have changed their host on 15th August. Linkedin describes Mr Gilpin's UKIP responsibilities as:
"Responsible for IT, web presence, social media and security."
UKIP changed their host shortly after the local elections, they now seem to have reverted to their previous host.
http://uptime.netcraft.com/up/graph?site=www.ukip.org
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/wgilpin
The VCRs weren't owned outright by the miners, but rented/with a final option to buy from radio rentals.
When they couldn't afford the repayments, they returned them to radio rentals, who were desperate to offload the second hand VCRs, thus our first VCR was a second hand one returned by by a miner to radio rentals.
This probably helped me become a Tory.
I wonder, actually, on a tangent, if this is why there aren't any good Rightwing comedians. It's always "droll". Which I love, personally - AveryLP is consistently funny.
But people generally prefer comedians to talk about anything, preferably with a bit of feeling, which can only come from the left ish. Perhaps.
Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. You didn't just hit a nerve you drilled vigorously into the f*cking SeanT Partridge brain stem, or so it seems.
You should do a tired faux outrage column on that carl.
*chortle*
If you can read and ask and explore and ask the question "why" nothing is closed to you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxHcx7FO8nI
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 20th August - Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -29
I always get a bit worried when weeks are spent writing a speech - IME the longer and greater the number of iterations, the worse and more disjointed it gets. Inevitably bits that were binned get stuck back in and sit alongside new bits written by others/tinkered with.
Then it gets far too long so the red pen comes out... EdM's speeches aren't riveting at the best of times - I hope he does a good one just to add a bit of umph to #SaveEd. We can't have him drowning prematurely.
Former chancellor says Labour must start making clear what it would do differently when in power"
The Times
Daily Telegraph
Daily Mail
Express
Sun
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/alistair-darling-david-blunkett-ed-miliband
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSIxw9TCEAAzpQB.png:large
It seems those who believed the account from the Met have as so often been left with egg on their face. Bindman's have confirmed that their solicitor was blocked from meeting Miranda for the first eight hours of the nine hour interview.
"Gwendolen Morgan, a solicitor at Bindmans who is representing Mr Miranda in challenging the legality of his detention, said: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-told-cabinet-secretary-to-get-guardian-to-hand-over-edward-snowden-documents-8777216.html
So in answer to Carlotta's rhetorical question "Is the Met likely to have lied on the record?" the answer is 'yes' unless you believe Bindmens were prepared to lose their reputation..
Hello, I am not who you think I am. Thought you might like this little reminder from HMRC:
Do you need to fill in a tax return?
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) will contact you, usually in April or May, if they think you need to fill in a tax return.
You'll receive a letter which explains when you'll need to send your tax return back. If you've previously sent your tax return on paper, you may receive a paper tax return.
If HMRC hasn't contacted you, but you think you may need to complete a tax return, follow the link below to check. You need to tell HMRC within six months of the end of the tax year that you need a tax return, or you may have to pay a penalty.
If HMRC asks you to complete a tax return but you think you don't need to, let HMRC know as soon as you can. You'll have to pay a penalty if you forget and don’t send your tax return in.
Don't forget that not declaring ALL your income is an offence.
Depressingly apart from Richard Tindall the outrage of the rest has been shown to be nothing more than partisan and worthless.
The security people have a job to do, if they thought he had info that was not in the interests of this country to be published then they had every right to detain him... for all of nine hours.
Terrorist only have to get lucky once..
I saw the Sky paper review this morning and the leftie eejit said that children should be taught how to protest against the police.
WTF!!!!!
Is that what the traditional labour voter want's to hear?
Edit - the stance supported by Unite it seems!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10255881/Unites-North-Korean-style-anti-cuts-cartoons-for-schoolchildren.html
Given the Guardian's reckless regard to data security with the Wikileaks information, would you trust them with any more secrets?
"LABOUR’S union paymasters Unite have made how-to videos for schoolkids on organising protests against big business. The explosive propaganda brands bosses as evil and untrustworthy. And it compares those campaigning against corporations to Germans who lost their lives opposing the NAZIS. The Unite pack — led by militant firebrand Len McCluskey — says pupils should discuss whether some demos fail because they’re not “threatening enough”.
Teachers are encouraged to design protest placards — and create “catchy slogans” that could be chanted at demos. The five cartoon shorts show teens in town Tethergo — an anagram for Together — who campaign to stop Panton Inc launching “big plans to privatise the entire area”. They recycle old placards from the miners’ strike to oppose Panton’s plans to close a community centre and launch Facebook and Twitter campaigns... http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5086917/Labour-union-make-how-to-organise-protests-videos-for-schoolchildren.html
"Given the Guardian's reckless regard to data security with the Wikileaks information, would you trust them with any more secrets?"
You are deliberately missing the point. Follow the example of David Davis. I'm beginning to think choosing the vacuous Cameron over him was the biggest mistake the Tories ever made
On a quiet morning test your GCSE Science. You should get 7/7 but the last question may need deeper thought.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23765435
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK44-ace5Pk
"Didn't Miranda/Guardian/Rusdinger say words to the effect of: they didn't trust the lawyer offered?"
Clearly nonsense. His own lawyer from Binmans arrived at Heathrow and wasn't given access. Is anyone suggesting he should have accepted someone offered by the Met under those circumstances if indeed he was?
Answer the question: should the Guardian have access to sensitive data, after they way they treated the Wikileaks data? Thanks to their behaviour, the unredacted information was released into the wild.
Incompetence does not really sum it up. If it had been the Mail or the Sun, you would be spitting blood. Was it okay just because it was the Guardian?
http://www.wikileaks.org/Guardian-journalist-negligently.html
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2011/09/unredacted_us_d.html
Someone should have been sacked, at the very least. And the Guardian is obviously unsuited to dealing with any confidential information ...
The issue is was he offered one.
Bindman's say: “It is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered legal representation."
But the Graun yesterday said that he was offered one and didn't trust them.
*snip* Copied.
Thanks for that.
Not sure I agree with the 'correct' answer to Q1I thought the understanding had changed. Also Q7 - damn Europeans!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IV4IjHz2yIo
(Edit: That said, the "incorrect..." quote from Bindman is pretty black & white. They didn't say "it is incorrect that Mr Miranda was offered [insert word: appropriate/his choice of/etc...] legal representation.")
"He was offered a lawyer and a cup of water, but he refused both because he did not trust the authorities."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/david-miranda-interview-detention-heathrow