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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open

If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    #27 Is this blacklist of troublemakers a public service or do I have to pay for a copy? I'd happily cough up a reasonable annual subscription.
  • 9. Alarm bells are ringing at Better Together.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    What a lot of non stories are around at the moment.

    Can't wait for politics to Start again.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    TSE asks

    What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?

    The same as it is for Brazilians?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited August 2013
    Tim_B said:

    TSE asks

    What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?

    The same as it is for Brazilians?

    I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
  • 'Henry McLeish: Unionists sunk by a perfect storm?'
    - Conservatism in London could be a bigger threat to the Union than nationalism in Edinburgh
    The Union politics of division and discontent, in the form of Tory extremism, are colliding with the Scotland politics of difference and diversity, seeking to build a new Scotland. This will be the new battleground of the referendum campaign. The Tories and much of the unionist establishment seem to be indirectly hastening the break-up of Britain.

    ... Better Together continues to use the fear factor as its major weapon, with a campaign so thoroughly negative as to be in danger of alienating many Scots who want to vote for the Union but feel increasingly insulted by endless threats of famine, pestilence, plague and aliens if they dared vote for independence.

    ... The people of Scotland are well ahead of their politicians. Scottish electors may see a softer, more intelligent politics, where identity, nationality, humanity, fairness, equality, virtue, compassion, tolerance and diversity matter and may feel that one-nation politics might only be achieved in Scotland as the Union fails to deliver. Better Together seems hollow in a divided Britain. The signals are clear, but is anyone listening?
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/henry-mcleish-unionists-sunk-by-a-perfect-storm-1-3053476
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Tim_B

    Hey Tim, how's the preseason going?

    Oh...

    and 2 :-)
  • tim said:

    2.Given what Boris has shafted in his time that's rich.

    Boris shafted his brother?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @Avery

    "They did exist in 1945.

    See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:

    "A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "

    In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.

    Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.

    Why a factor of 2 ? Why not 1.5 or 3 ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    Should there be a poll on how many of the comments under the Caroline Lucas 'Why I risked arrest' story suggest the true title should be 'Why I really hoped to be arrested'? I'm thinking it will be a lot.

    I also don't like the 'fooled again' part of the LD-Con second coalition story - it says the problem would be 'getting it past' the party, which I'm sure is true, but that just demonstrates it was run by the party last time as well, so how were people fooled in any way? Because it didn't work out well? Because they fear a 'Tory'lite' agenda is a little too acceptable to the leadership of the party, as stated in the article? That doesn't hold much water to me. No-one was fooled last time - either they jumped ship immediately, or they decided initially it was worth the cost (and many now think that was a mistake) but it won't be again. That doesn't mean Clegg fooled anyone, he was just wrong about how it woud work out for them, but then that was always going to be hard.

    And am I the only person who is not a Labour or EdM supporter who thinks more of him for shafting his brother? He was ruthless, and didn't allow familial feelings get in the way of what he thought was the best direction for his party, and therefore country (that he assumes his way is best for the party and country is a given, but that's the kind of arrogance political leaders need)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    Greece needs a bailout again? Quelle surprise!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.

    Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited August 2013

    Tim_B said:

    TSE asks

    What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?

    The same as it is for Brazilians?

    I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
    Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
  • Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.

    Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.

    I'm assuming you wrote the first link.

    Comparing Ed to Caesar.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HS2 - Everyone knows the HS2 will never see the light of day. Announcement: July 2015.

    Trident will be heavily modified. They will suddenly realise that existing subs can work another 5 years. After all, you only need missile to work !
  • Tim_B said:

    TSE asks

    What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?

    The same as it is for Brazilians?

    I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
    Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
    Thank you.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.

    27) Blacklisting is a scandal, and one that has operated for too long.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. Eagles, if Miliband were Caesar he would've been assassinated (politically) last year.

    Incidentally, I see the Spanish Government remains cretinous.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    No understatement in link one about Gordon Brown:

    "After the 2010 election I went round Brown's inner court and spoke to his closest allies – Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, Damian McBride, Spencer Livermore, Stan Greenberg and Deborah Mattinson – to understand why Gordon Brown was our greatest failure as prime minister in 200 years."
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    @kle4 That's a good post in my opinion; agree with all of that.

    Thanks to TSE for an interesting selection of articles. They ranged from those I nodded sagely in agreement with to those which irritated and annoyed me ... which is pretty much the ideal response.
  • 20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.

    Expensive. White. Elephant.

    (braces self for abuse!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734

    Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.

    Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.

    It's one of those areas where you can see the good intention behind it, but the method to achieve a positive end just doesn't smell right - it smacks of punishing the public for not making the right decisions by not giving them a choice in the matter. If a party decides to have all-women shortlists that's their decision to make, as it doesn't guarantee a particular outcome (even if all parties do it in one seat it all-but-guarantees), but beyond that, I start getting worried. I recall a proposal that if the PM is a man, the Chancellor should be a woman, or vice-versa, ignoring that it means you might not be able to get the two best suited for the roles, in order to meet the gender requirements (granted, two women having those posts does not seem on the horizon at present).

    I suppose I can see why desperate measures like that are proposed, as I don't really see a way to ensure a redressing of the gender imbalance.

    Although what sort of quota should there be for ethnic minorities, or the disabled, to be represented in Parliament? Read a fascinating story today about the outgoing vice-president of Ecuador and his 4% disabled employees quota.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23692217
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited August 2013
    Scott_P said:

    @Tim_B

    Hey Tim, how's the preseason going?

    Oh...

    and 2 :-)

    Nobody cares about the preseason - although you can actually bet on preseason games. How crazy is that?

    We're just an owner away from a Superbowl.

    We're just an owner away

    We're just an owner away

    - as a fan would say, which of course I am not.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Tim_B said:

    TSE asks

    What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?

    The same as it is for Brazilians?

    I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
    Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
    Thank you.

    I was in Porto Alegre the day Brazil last won the world cup. It was grey and drizzly, about 10 degrees. It felt like being in Manchester - apart from the wild celebrations, of course.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669



    I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.

    Me too, but I had the good sense to leave ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734

    20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.

    Expensive. White. Elephant.

    (braces self for abuse!)
    And well you should - aren't White Elephants by their very nature going to be expensive? Tautology alert!

    But this does looks like a big one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734

    Mr. Eagles, if Miliband were Caesar he would've been assassinated (politically) last year.
    .

    Even though he had a good year, press wise, I think he'd actually have to have made some real achievements prior to his assassination to be truly Ceasarish. Has Miliband killed hundreds of thousands of Gauls yet. Nossir.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    More applause for TSE's listings - enables us to catch quite a few interesting stories we might miss. I wonder if Ladbrokes will offer odds on HS2 being cancelled sometime in the next 5 years? I'd put the odds at about evens - it's progressing rapidly, but it's a very obvious target for any Chancellor wondering where to lay his hands on £40 billion or so (I'm genuinely agnostic myself).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    tim said:

    Interesting view on economy polling.

    @BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou

    I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    Greece needs a bailout again? Quelle surprise!

    Just surprising Scheuble's spelled it out now pre election.

    The big question is what is Merkel going to do once ( presumably ) elected again. Does she do something for the history books and push Germany and its cash towards more European political and economic integration, and will she chuck Cameron something knowing she can't go down a integrationist route without some risk at least of driving the British further away which is not in Germany's interest IMO.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    tim said:

    Interesting view on economy polling.

    @BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou

    Immigration is an interesting one too. Everyone's convinced it's important to the country. It's just not important to them personally. Well done, the UK media.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    edited August 2013
    kle4 said:

    20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.

    Expensive. White. Elephant.

    (braces self for abuse!)
    And well you should - aren't White Elephants by their very nature going to be expensive? Tautology alert!

    It wasn't my fault, sir! Please don't deactivate me! I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning. Kept babbling on about his mission!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845

    20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.

    Expensive. White. Elephant.

    (braces self for abuse!)
    Everyone's entitled to their opinions. Even if they're wrong. ;-)

    To add a little information to the debate, the link below is Network Rail's response to some of the alternative schemes that have been devised by opponents. As can be seen, it is a fairly thorough review, and none meet the strategic objectives of HS2.

    Whether those strategic objectives are realistic are another matter ...

    http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives.pdf
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Miliband were Caesar he would've been assassinated (politically) last year.
    .

    Even though he had a good year, press wise, I think he'd actually have to have made some real achievements prior to his assassination to be truly Ceasarish. Has Miliband killed hundreds of thousands of Gauls yet. Nossir.
    He did go to France on his hols. Anyone checked for survivors in the vicinity ? ;-)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @kle4 Labour need a set of real world policies and to be consciously low-ideology (ie the very opposite of Ed Miliband's natural tendencies). Higher real wages, better housing, more secure jobs - that kind of thing.

    I'm not sure they're up to it though. Votes at 16 and compulsory voting might make for an appetising amuse bouche for 2010 Lib Dems, but it's not going to win over those who currently doubt that Labour's priorities are helping with practical problems.
  • I've added this as link 32

    Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'

    Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10255451/Nigel-Farage-wants-Ukip-to-remain-a-bunch-of-amateurs.html
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Just browsing through Survation's last poll. Undecided voters are 17% of the (likely to vote) electorate. (Table 10, p.15)

    12% 2010 Con, 7% 2010 Lab, 23% 2010 LD 8% 2010 Other.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/SurvationMOS-Summer-Recess-Poll.pdf
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    Chris Lewis's first Test wicket in July 1990, with dissent from New Zealand's Martin Crowe against umpire Barrie Meyer:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2swjJu2OE0&lc=NTFa3BTnWEn6BRlOXUqBZ0BpA7nMOHXWno3ch1A-7NU
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Thanks for all the interesting links, TSE.

    Now all I need is some time to read them!
  • Hmmmm

    Tim Shipman (Mail) ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound

    Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail

  • Thanks for the appreciation for nighthawks.

    It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.

    And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013

    I've added this as link 32

    Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'

    Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10255451/Nigel-Farage-wants-Ukip-to-remain-a-bunch-of-amateurs.html

    Mr Gilpin was CEO for 8 months.

    http://uk.linkedin.com/in/wgilpin
  • I've added this as link 32

    Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'

    Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10255451/Nigel-Farage-wants-Ukip-to-remain-a-bunch-of-amateurs.html

    Mr Gilpin was CEO for 8 months.
    Yup, and he was there long enough to see the problems.
  • Thanks for the appreciation for nighthawks.

    It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.

    And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.

    Appreciation seconded - The subtle pop references are the best bit :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    tim said:

    @ClaerB: Treasury concerns HS2 will hit £73bn http://t.co/EtdWJuC2zN #FT

    Universal Credit is as good as dumped, now this.

    Can't get at the link as it's FT. It would be interesting to read it.

    But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?

    And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
  • tim said:

    @ClaerB: Treasury concerns HS2 will hit £73bn http://t.co/EtdWJuC2zN #FT

    Universal Credit is as good as dumped, now this.

    Can't get at the link as it's FT. It would be interesting to read it.

    But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?

    And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
    Google "Internal Treasury concerns mount over HS2" and it should bring up the FT story for free
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    @Avery

    "They did exist in 1945.

    See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:

    "A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "

    In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.

    Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.

    Why a factor of 2 ? Why not 1.5 or 3 ?

    Surby

    You are being tiresome. The Lebo and Norpoth model/paper is not covert Conservative Party propaganda. It is a sincere and independent attempt by genuine and qualified academics to create an accurate predictive model for UK General Elections.

    L&N are quite open about their theory's weaknesses and the model's margins of error, but as it stands, it has proved to be as accurate a predictor of outcomes as any competing work.

    A key input to their model is PM approval ratings among polling respondents who identify with the two main parties. So they look at, say, Cameron's ratings among Conservative voters and Labour voters.

    In the case of the 1945 election, Churchill had led a National Government and there was no easy way to split out approvals from Conservative and Labour voters. Hence the need to 'split' Churchill's 87% approval rating, which was no doubt also inflated, independently of Churchill's party, by him being the victorious war leader.

    1945 is also the first in the sequence of elections modelled by L&N using their retrospective 'electoral cycle' analysis. You will note from their report that error margins, as a trend, fall as the series develops.

    Why not read the paper in full? You will see for yourself what the authors are up to. And it is certainly not "working backwards to find the answer [they] want".

  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    Thanks for the appreciation for nighthawks.

    It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.

    And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.

    Only thing I'd say is that it's always (naturally) a bit heavy on the anti-Labour, anti-Ed stuff, which have usually been linked to death in the comments here anyway. Some more interesting titbits from your party and elsewhere would be grand.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845

    tim said:

    @ClaerB: Treasury concerns HS2 will hit £73bn http://t.co/EtdWJuC2zN #FT

    Universal Credit is as good as dumped, now this.

    Can't get at the link as it's FT. It would be interesting to read it.

    But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?

    And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
    Google "Internal Treasury concerns mount over HS2" and it should bring up the FT story for free
    Cheers.

    Given the increase by the Treasury in the risk assessment from the usual P50 to P95 (see my post earlier in the week), which accounts for most of the recent cost increase, it is suggestive that some in the Treasury are trying to kill the project.

    Which is a shame, as it is needed IMHO. And the anti's who use such practices (such as the IEA) need to be careful: any schemes they are in favour of (roads, anyone?) will be treated in exactly the same manner ...

    And I was right. It doesn't mention freight or capacity. These journalists are idiots.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    carl said:

    What a lot of non stories are around at the moment.

    Can't wait for politics to Start again.

    LOL

    :)

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TSE Do you really think that SeanT's ego needed inflating any further?
  • antifrank said:

    @TSE Do you really think that SeanT's ego needed inflating any further?

    Yes, he deserves his success.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    SeanT said:

    Where's Plato?

    7,000 shares on my last Telegraph blog.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100231060/are-atheists-mentally-ill/

    1462 comments.

    I'll do you a deal. I'll count up the number of deaths caused in the name of religion over a week, and you count up the number of deaths caused in the name of atheism over the same period.

    We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.

    Or perhaps not... ;-)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.

    Two things missing from that graph.

    1. Data going back to 2007.

    2. An explanation of the cause of the fall in living standards.

    Mervyn King, in many speeches and reports made both before and after Cameron became PM, set out the consequences for living standards which would result from and were caused by the 2007-9 crash.

    Brown was driving the car when it crashed causing injury to multiple victims. Trying to blame their continuing symptoms on the safe driver of a new car is just pure effrontery.
  • I may have to watch newsnight tonight.

    Martin Boon is going to be on, discussing Ed
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    edited August 2013
    Hell hath no fury like a Guardian journalist scorned. Greenwald has seriously turned up the volume. I suspect this is the start of a major story. My ideal ending would be the end of Theresa May.....I hate British Home Secretaries being in the pocket of the Americans
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    Hooray for NannyCam and all his lovely new labour authoritian stupidity!
    @GrannyWils@GrannyWils

    David Cameron had advance warning of Miranda detention, No 10 confirms http://gu.com/p/3t6cy/tw via @guardian


    @ShippersUnbound: Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
    Repulsive incompetent hypocrites.





  • Roger said:

    I suspect this is the start of a major story.

    I'm not sure if I should be worried or delighted by that observation coming from the man who told us back in 2007, that Northern Rock would be forgotten by the following weekend.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited August 2013
    @SeanT - Actually it is 60 pages of comments, 25 comments per page, that nearly 1500 comments.

    I'd skip over comment 24 on the first page though

    "You can conclude that Sean Thomas has a mental illness"
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Roger said:

    I suspect this is the start of a major story.

    Really? You know what isn't yet being reported and what will be? That would be very handy indeed for prediction purposes.

    :)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    tim said:

    @ClaerB: Treasury concerns HS2 will hit £73bn http://t.co/EtdWJuC2zN #FT

    Universal Credit is as good as dumped, now this.

    Can't get at the link as it's FT. It would be interesting to read it.

    But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?

    And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
    If you use the article title as the search term you can bypass the firewall by arriving from Google.

    search for: "Internal Treasury concerns mount over hs2"
  • SeanT said:

    Where's Plato?

    7,000 shares on my last Telegraph blog.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100231060/are-atheists-mentally-ill/

    1462 comments.

    I'll do you a deal. I'll count up the number of deaths caused in the name of religion over a week, and you count up the number of deaths caused in the name of atheism over the same period.

    We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.

    Or perhaps not... ;-)
    Only stupid people believe in "God". Now, it may well be the case that non-believers are also stupid, but they aren't stupid because they believe in "God" :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. T, worth pointing out that there will always be angry sorts in any vague demographic, and the interweb enables them to furiously agree with one another in seemingly large numbers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    edited August 2013
    SeanT said:

    Hah. I hadn't seen that, 51 pages of comments??

    Heh. Heheheheheheh.

    *ego stoked*

    What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?

    Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
    Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I have sent a letter addressed to the UKIP executive on Gilpins claims, as stated in the Telegraph. I await answers.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
  • O/T Footie betting question.

    The best odds on Spurs being in the Top 4 are now 13/8

    Yet Ladbrokes has Spurs at 11/5 to 'win' the Premier League without the Big 3..... Liverpool being 2-1 and Arse 6-4.

    Erm isn't the latter the bet to take or is there something in the small print about the big 3 bet, do they have to come behind the big 3?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    It's just a theory off the top of my head, but---ignoring those Tories who are just desperately stirring---I wonder whether many who press the nonsense about Ed "backstabbing" his brother might not tend to be "only children" (A rise in intonation signifying a rhetorical question)?

    Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Hah. I hadn't seen that, 51 pages of comments??

    Heh. Heheheheheheh.

    *ego stoked*

    What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?

    Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
    Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
    The centre-left doesn't do the tired old "shock jock, where's the paycheck" thing as well as the Right, though.

    Mainly because those on the centre and centre-left are generally more intelligent and thoughtful, whereas those out there on the Right tend to be more slack-jawed, reactionary, slightly under-evolved or stuck in their teenage years.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.

    However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    Toms said:

    It's just a theory off the top of my head, but---ignoring those Tories who are just desperately stirring---I wonder whether many who press the nonsense about Ed "backstabbing" his brother might not tend to be "only children" (A rise in intonation signifying a rhetorical question)?

    Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.

    Undoubtedly. I think I'd happily backstab at least 2 of my 4 elder brothers.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.

    Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Daily Mail front page - "Young lack the grit to get jobs" @minforcivsoc #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/6bmSOdiGHF

    So Says Old Etonian and fourth generation MP and ex banker Nick Hurd.

    Which part of the desolate north does this out of touch twit expect this 'grit' to be mined?

    Comedy fops.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Hah. I hadn't seen that, 51 pages of comments??

    Heh. Heheheheheheh.

    *ego stoked*

    What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?

    Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
    Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
    Oh, I agree, And I intend to provoke them, as well. I hate polemicists/pundits/provocateurs who are predictable. I think one key to this job - in my so-far limited experience - is to come from a discernible political position but to be capricious and unexpected in your attacks, so that you remain fresh. What's he gonna say today?! etc

    That said (if I am allowed to continue doing this for a living) my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.

    I'm sadly no in any of those categories. Can you add HS2-advocates and/or long-distance walkers to that list?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "Young lack the grit to get jobs... [they have] crushingly low self-confidence"

    Anyone spot the problem?
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    O/T Footie betting question.

    The best odds on Spurs being in the Top 4 are now 13/8

    Yet Ladbrokes has Spurs at 11/5 to 'win' the Premier League without the Big 3..... Liverpool being 2-1 and Arse 6-4.

    Erm isn't the latter the bet to take or is there something in the small print about the big 3 bet, do they have to come behind the big 3?

    Arsenal 3rd, Spurs 4th, City/Chels/Utd 5th, you lose the latter bet but win the former.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    surbiton said:

    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.

    However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
    I think we may have just stumbled upon the 'When bad things happen on my watch, the contributing factors from before I took over are relevant, but when bad things happen on my enemy's watch, no contributing factors are relevant' rule of politics*. There really needs to be a better name for it.

    Partisan temporal relevance?


    *This can be reversed so that positive happenings are really down to a previous government's efforts coming to fruition, where your party was that previous government.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @kle4 Blaming current problems on the previous administration is a rather stronger argument when you've been in power for 3 years rather than 13 years.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Where's Plato?

    7,000 shares on my last Telegraph blog.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100231060/are-atheists-mentally-ill/

    1462 comments.

    You'll need bigger doors soon !

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited August 2013
    surbiton said:

    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.

    However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
    So we should've lived on the never never even more than we have? It would've been debt fuelled growth lite, a paler version of where brother Gordon led us post 2001. That said, to be even handed, I have serious doubts ( like Tim God help me ) about the wisdom of boosting the housing market which is just this lot repeating the last lot's errors only from a higher debt base and with less rope to hang ourselves, as we can't afford as much rope as we could in 2001 (!)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    MikeK said:

    I have sent a letter addressed to the UKIP executive on Gilpins claims, as stated in the Telegraph. I await answers.

    Mr Gilpin's suggestions for improving UKIP are not the only option. Whatever they've been doing to win elections is working.

    http://youtu.be/g4GvG0WeKOc



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    edited August 2013


    Oh, I agree, And I intend to provoke them, as well. I hate polemicists/pundits/provocateurs who are predictable. I think one key to this job - in my so-far limited experience - is to come from a discernible political position but to be capricious and unexpected in your attacks, so that you remain fresh. What's he gonna say today?! etc

    That said (if I am allowed to continue doing this for a living) my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
    Focus is important, there's no doubt. As an atheist, multiple lib dem voter (no guarantee of future allegiance LDs, don't take it for granted, I wanted Cameron to be PM after all), public sector working, socially liberal political wonk, I will have to regard your pieces that I'm sure will push my particular buttons, as a challenge. May the better man win (I'm hoping wealth and success are not factors in 'better' comparisons but I still have time on my side!)

    Night all.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    It's the Daily Mail editorialising as much as it's the minister's comments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,734
    edited August 2013
    antifrank said:

    @kle4 Blaming current problems on the previous administration is a rather stronger argument when you've been in power for 3 years rather than 13 years.

    A valid argument. Labour tried it for far too long, which is one reason I'm certainly not expecting the Coalition to stop using it in under 5 years. Why should they? It's currently not that unreasonable to make the case, even if the opposition will dispute how much it was a factor.

    There are limits of course, but even if it won't always be convincing, I can't begrudge a first term government heavily leaning on the strategy.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Interesting view on economy polling.

    @BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou

    I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
    Apparently, Ed has no strategy !

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    O/T Footie betting question.

    The best odds on Spurs being in the Top 4 are now 13/8

    Yet Ladbrokes has Spurs at 11/5 to 'win' the Premier League without the Big 3..... Liverpool being 2-1 and Arse 6-4.

    Erm isn't the latter the bet to take or is there something in the small print about the big 3 bet, do they have to come behind the big 3?


    Have a bit on both
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Interesting view on economy polling.

    @BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou

    I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
    Taxation is another vote-winner !!

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Peter Hitchens discusses opinion polls and their influence.... as well as other things, I've only watched five minutes

    http://youtu.be/4ATJ23ftuho
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.

    So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited August 2013
    Thanks for the explanations but basically if I'm betting that Spurs will finish above Arsenal and Liverpool which is basically ignoring then what the big 3 do, then the way to bet on that is the latter option surely.

    And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    Ladbrokes: Ed Miliband cut from 14/1 to 10/1 to be replaced as Labour leader this year. #newsnight
    http://bit.ly/13CmhbX

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    carl said:

    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.

    Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
    How the hell do you reduce a13% deficit and not affect living standards then? Anyone with half a brain knew this when they voted last time round. Liam Byrne understood there's no more money. Thrre again there are the wishful thinkers...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Umunna likes superfluous sentences, Kirsty.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    As an Arsenal supporter I may be indulging wishful thinking but often the best time to back something is when it has suffered a setback... Bookie over reactions are potential gold mines
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    Thanks for the explanations but basically if I'm betting that Spurs will finish above Arsenal and Liverpool which is basically ignoring then what the big 3 do, then the way to bet on that is the latter option surely.

    And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3

    If you think the top 3 WILL be Utd, Chelsea, City, then it's a good bet. But it's the reason for difference in odds.

    Personally I think Spurs are very strong, and could finish above one of the "Big 3", as could Arsenal, who are always underestimated.
  • Spurs will always find a way to finish below Arsenal. Sad, but true.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    welshowl said:

    carl said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa

    That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.



    Brown was driving the car when it crashed
    And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
    Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
    The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.

    Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
    How the hell do you reduce a13% deficit and not affect living standards then? Anyone with half a brain knew this when they voted last time round. Liam Byrne understood there's no more money. Thrre again there are the wishful thinkers...
    They could have cut government spending rather than raising taxes.

This discussion has been closed.