'Henry McLeish: Unionists sunk by a perfect storm?' - Conservatism in London could be a bigger threat to the Union than nationalism in Edinburgh
The Union politics of division and discontent, in the form of Tory extremism, are colliding with the Scotland politics of difference and diversity, seeking to build a new Scotland. This will be the new battleground of the referendum campaign. The Tories and much of the unionist establishment seem to be indirectly hastening the break-up of Britain.
... Better Together continues to use the fear factor as its major weapon, with a campaign so thoroughly negative as to be in danger of alienating many Scots who want to vote for the Union but feel increasingly insulted by endless threats of famine, pestilence, plague and aliens if they dared vote for independence.
... The people of Scotland are well ahead of their politicians. Scottish electors may see a softer, more intelligent politics, where identity, nationality, humanity, fairness, equality, virtue, compassion, tolerance and diversity matter and may feel that one-nation politics might only be achieved in Scotland as the Union fails to deliver. Better Together seems hollow in a divided Britain. The signals are clear, but is anyone listening?
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "
In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.
Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.
Should there be a poll on how many of the comments under the Caroline Lucas 'Why I risked arrest' story suggest the true title should be 'Why I really hoped to be arrested'? I'm thinking it will be a lot.
I also don't like the 'fooled again' part of the LD-Con second coalition story - it says the problem would be 'getting it past' the party, which I'm sure is true, but that just demonstrates it was run by the party last time as well, so how were people fooled in any way? Because it didn't work out well? Because they fear a 'Tory'lite' agenda is a little too acceptable to the leadership of the party, as stated in the article? That doesn't hold much water to me. No-one was fooled last time - either they jumped ship immediately, or they decided initially it was worth the cost (and many now think that was a mistake) but it won't be again. That doesn't mean Clegg fooled anyone, he was just wrong about how it woud work out for them, but then that was always going to be hard.
And am I the only person who is not a Labour or EdM supporter who thinks more of him for shafting his brother? He was ruthless, and didn't allow familial feelings get in the way of what he thought was the best direction for his party, and therefore country (that he assumes his way is best for the party and country is a given, but that's the kind of arrogance political leaders need)
Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.
Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?
The same as it is for Brazilians?
I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.
Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?
The same as it is for Brazilians?
I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
"After the 2010 election I went round Brown's inner court and spoke to his closest allies – Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, Damian McBride, Spencer Livermore, Stan Greenberg and Deborah Mattinson – to understand why Gordon Brown was our greatest failure as prime minister in 200 years."
@kle4 That's a good post in my opinion; agree with all of that.
Thanks to TSE for an interesting selection of articles. They ranged from those I nodded sagely in agreement with to those which irritated and annoyed me ... which is pretty much the ideal response.
Mr. Eagles, thanks for this list of links. It must take a while to put together, and is much appreciated.
Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
It's one of those areas where you can see the good intention behind it, but the method to achieve a positive end just doesn't smell right - it smacks of punishing the public for not making the right decisions by not giving them a choice in the matter. If a party decides to have all-women shortlists that's their decision to make, as it doesn't guarantee a particular outcome (even if all parties do it in one seat it all-but-guarantees), but beyond that, I start getting worried. I recall a proposal that if the PM is a man, the Chancellor should be a woman, or vice-versa, ignoring that it means you might not be able to get the two best suited for the roles, in order to meet the gender requirements (granted, two women having those posts does not seem on the horizon at present).
I suppose I can see why desperate measures like that are proposed, as I don't really see a way to ensure a redressing of the gender imbalance.
Although what sort of quota should there be for ethnic minorities, or the disabled, to be represented in Parliament? Read a fascinating story today about the outgoing vice-president of Ecuador and his 4% disabled employees quota.
What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?
The same as it is for Brazilians?
I was born, raised and live/lived in the desolate North for most of my life.
Will vary greatly according to what part of the country you go to. In the south (Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Sao Paulo even), you'll find it quite chilly at that time of year. Rio can be quite hot, but not oppressive, but further north, you can expect regular day-time temperatures of 30-40.
Thank you.
I was in Porto Alegre the day Brazil last won the world cup. It was grey and drizzly, about 10 degrees. It felt like being in Manchester - apart from the wild celebrations, of course.
Mr. Eagles, if Miliband were Caesar he would've been assassinated (politically) last year. .
Even though he had a good year, press wise, I think he'd actually have to have made some real achievements prior to his assassination to be truly Ceasarish. Has Miliband killed hundreds of thousands of Gauls yet. Nossir.
More applause for TSE's listings - enables us to catch quite a few interesting stories we might miss. I wonder if Ladbrokes will offer odds on HS2 being cancelled sometime in the next 5 years? I'd put the odds at about evens - it's progressing rapidly, but it's a very obvious target for any Chancellor wondering where to lay his hands on £40 billion or so (I'm genuinely agnostic myself).
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
Just surprising Scheuble's spelled it out now pre election.
The big question is what is Merkel going to do once ( presumably ) elected again. Does she do something for the history books and push Germany and its cash towards more European political and economic integration, and will she chuck Cameron something knowing she can't go down a integrationist route without some risk at least of driving the British further away which is not in Germany's interest IMO.
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
Immigration is an interesting one too. Everyone's convinced it's important to the country. It's just not important to them personally. Well done, the UK media.
20) HS2 isn't a failed policy. Indeed, the IEA's report against it is a sign that the anti's are panicking.
Expensive. White. Elephant.
(braces self for abuse!)
Everyone's entitled to their opinions. Even if they're wrong. ;-)
To add a little information to the debate, the link below is Network Rail's response to some of the alternative schemes that have been devised by opponents. As can be seen, it is a fairly thorough review, and none meet the strategic objectives of HS2.
Whether those strategic objectives are realistic are another matter ...
Mr. Eagles, if Miliband were Caesar he would've been assassinated (politically) last year. .
Even though he had a good year, press wise, I think he'd actually have to have made some real achievements prior to his assassination to be truly Ceasarish. Has Miliband killed hundreds of thousands of Gauls yet. Nossir.
He did go to France on his hols. Anyone checked for survivors in the vicinity ? ;-)
@kle4 Labour need a set of real world policies and to be consciously low-ideology (ie the very opposite of Ed Miliband's natural tendencies). Higher real wages, better housing, more secure jobs - that kind of thing.
I'm not sure they're up to it though. Votes at 16 and compulsory voting might make for an appetising amuse bouche for 2010 Lib Dems, but it's not going to win over those who currently doubt that Labour's priorities are helping with practical problems.
Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'
Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.
Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'
Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.
Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'
Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "
In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.
Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.
Why a factor of 2 ? Why not 1.5 or 3 ?
Surby
You are being tiresome. The Lebo and Norpoth model/paper is not covert Conservative Party propaganda. It is a sincere and independent attempt by genuine and qualified academics to create an accurate predictive model for UK General Elections.
L&N are quite open about their theory's weaknesses and the model's margins of error, but as it stands, it has proved to be as accurate a predictor of outcomes as any competing work.
A key input to their model is PM approval ratings among polling respondents who identify with the two main parties. So they look at, say, Cameron's ratings among Conservative voters and Labour voters.
In the case of the 1945 election, Churchill had led a National Government and there was no easy way to split out approvals from Conservative and Labour voters. Hence the need to 'split' Churchill's 87% approval rating, which was no doubt also inflated, independently of Churchill's party, by him being the victorious war leader.
1945 is also the first in the sequence of elections modelled by L&N using their retrospective 'electoral cycle' analysis. You will note from their report that error margins, as a trend, fall as the series develops.
Why not read the paper in full? You will see for yourself what the authors are up to. And it is certainly not "working backwards to find the answer [they] want".
It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.
And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.
Only thing I'd say is that it's always (naturally) a bit heavy on the anti-Labour, anti-Ed stuff, which have usually been linked to death in the comments here anyway. Some more interesting titbits from your party and elsewhere would be grand.
Can't get at the link as it's FT. It would be interesting to read it.
But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?
And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
Google "Internal Treasury concerns mount over HS2" and it should bring up the FT story for free
Cheers.
Given the increase by the Treasury in the risk assessment from the usual P50 to P95 (see my post earlier in the week), which accounts for most of the recent cost increase, it is suggestive that some in the Treasury are trying to kill the project.
Which is a shame, as it is needed IMHO. And the anti's who use such practices (such as the IEA) need to be careful: any schemes they are in favour of (roads, anyone?) will be treated in exactly the same manner ...
And I was right. It doesn't mention freight or capacity. These journalists are idiots.
I'll do you a deal. I'll count up the number of deaths caused in the name of religion over a week, and you count up the number of deaths caused in the name of atheism over the same period.
We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Two things missing from that graph.
1. Data going back to 2007.
2. An explanation of the cause of the fall in living standards.
Mervyn King, in many speeches and reports made both before and after Cameron became PM, set out the consequences for living standards which would result from and were caused by the 2007-9 crash.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed causing injury to multiple victims. Trying to blame their continuing symptoms on the safe driver of a new car is just pure effrontery.
Hell hath no fury like a Guardian journalist scorned. Greenwald has seriously turned up the volume. I suspect this is the start of a major story. My ideal ending would be the end of Theresa May.....I hate British Home Secretaries being in the pocket of the Americans
@ShippersUnbound: Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
I'm not sure if I should be worried or delighted by that observation coming from the man who told us back in 2007, that Northern Rock would be forgotten by the following weekend.
I'll do you a deal. I'll count up the number of deaths caused in the name of religion over a week, and you count up the number of deaths caused in the name of atheism over the same period.
We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.
Or perhaps not... ;-)
Only stupid people believe in "God". Now, it may well be the case that non-believers are also stupid, but they aren't stupid because they believe in "God"
Mr. T, worth pointing out that there will always be angry sorts in any vague demographic, and the interweb enables them to furiously agree with one another in seemingly large numbers.
What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?
Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
It's just a theory off the top of my head, but---ignoring those Tories who are just desperately stirring---I wonder whether many who press the nonsense about Ed "backstabbing" his brother might not tend to be "only children" (A rise in intonation signifying a rhetorical question)?
Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.
What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?
Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
The centre-left doesn't do the tired old "shock jock, where's the paycheck" thing as well as the Right, though.
Mainly because those on the centre and centre-left are generally more intelligent and thoughtful, whereas those out there on the Right tend to be more slack-jawed, reactionary, slightly under-evolved or stuck in their teenage years.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.
However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
It's just a theory off the top of my head, but---ignoring those Tories who are just desperately stirring---I wonder whether many who press the nonsense about Ed "backstabbing" his brother might not tend to be "only children" (A rise in intonation signifying a rhetorical question)?
Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.
Undoubtedly. I think I'd happily backstab at least 2 of my 4 elder brothers.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
What amazes me is just how easy it is to craze and infuriate atheists. I always suspected they were a bit insecure, but not THIS insecure. Page after page of mad drooling anger. I thought they were meant to be cool and logical?
Hilarious, and incredibly revealing. I didn't just hit a nerve I drilled vigorously into the f*cking atheist brain stem, or so it seems.
Well done indeed, but I think we all know the same response could have been had with the exact opposite focus for your piece, and to pretend otherwise would be a tad pathetic. You do certainly have a particular talent for provocation, and I think you should not limit yourself to believing you can only achieve it with atheists or lefties. Theists and righties can also be infuriated in such a manner, that's a large group for you to also tease; certainly you would not wish to tease them as much, but to pretend it only happens with atheists and lefties would be to limit yourself unduly.
Oh, I agree, And I intend to provoke them, as well. I hate polemicists/pundits/provocateurs who are predictable. I think one key to this job - in my so-far limited experience - is to come from a discernible political position but to be capricious and unexpected in your attacks, so that you remain fresh. What's he gonna say today?! etc
That said (if I am allowed to continue doing this for a living) my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
I'm sadly no in any of those categories. Can you add HS2-advocates and/or long-distance walkers to that list?
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.
However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
I think we may have just stumbled upon the 'When bad things happen on my watch, the contributing factors from before I took over are relevant, but when bad things happen on my enemy's watch, no contributing factors are relevant' rule of politics*. There really needs to be a better name for it.
Partisan temporal relevance?
*This can be reversed so that positive happenings are really down to a previous government's efforts coming to fruition, where your party was that previous government.
@kle4 Blaming current problems on the previous administration is a rather stronger argument when you've been in power for 3 years rather than 13 years.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
So it is Labour's fault that deficit went up in this country particularly with a large financial sector as it did in every other developed country because it happened during Labour's watch.
However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
So we should've lived on the never never even more than we have? It would've been debt fuelled growth lite, a paler version of where brother Gordon led us post 2001. That said, to be even handed, I have serious doubts ( like Tim God help me ) about the wisdom of boosting the housing market which is just this lot repeating the last lot's errors only from a higher debt base and with less rope to hang ourselves, as we can't afford as much rope as we could in 2001 (!)
Oh, I agree, And I intend to provoke them, as well. I hate polemicists/pundits/provocateurs who are predictable. I think one key to this job - in my so-far limited experience - is to come from a discernible political position but to be capricious and unexpected in your attacks, so that you remain fresh. What's he gonna say today?! etc
That said (if I am allowed to continue doing this for a living) my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
Focus is important, there's no doubt. As an atheist, multiple lib dem voter (no guarantee of future allegiance LDs, don't take it for granted, I wanted Cameron to be PM after all), public sector working, socially liberal political wonk, I will have to regard your pieces that I'm sure will push my particular buttons, as a challenge. May the better man win (I'm hoping wealth and success are not factors in 'better' comparisons but I still have time on my side!)
@kle4 Blaming current problems on the previous administration is a rather stronger argument when you've been in power for 3 years rather than 13 years.
A valid argument. Labour tried it for far too long, which is one reason I'm certainly not expecting the Coalition to stop using it in under 5 years. Why should they? It's currently not that unreasonable to make the case, even if the opposition will dispute how much it was a factor.
There are limits of course, but even if it won't always be convincing, I can't begrudge a first term government heavily leaning on the strategy.
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
I have to say I'm amazed it took them this long to start focusing on it. It could be a real winner.
my attacks on lefties, lib-lefties, atheists, Labourites, bourgeois greenies, public sector poshos and members of the Muslim Brotherhood will probably always be more effective and amusing, should they be amusing, because my hatred of these people is more genuine and vivid.
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
Thanks for the explanations but basically if I'm betting that Spurs will finish above Arsenal and Liverpool which is basically ignoring then what the big 3 do, then the way to bet on that is the latter option surely.
And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
How the hell do you reduce a13% deficit and not affect living standards then? Anyone with half a brain knew this when they voted last time round. Liam Byrne understood there's no more money. Thrre again there are the wishful thinkers...
As an Arsenal supporter I may be indulging wishful thinking but often the best time to back something is when it has suffered a setback... Bookie over reactions are potential gold mines
Thanks for the explanations but basically if I'm betting that Spurs will finish above Arsenal and Liverpool which is basically ignoring then what the big 3 do, then the way to bet on that is the latter option surely.
And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3
If you think the top 3 WILL be Utd, Chelsea, City, then it's a good bet. But it's the reason for difference in odds.
Personally I think Spurs are very strong, and could finish above one of the "Big 3", as could Arsenal, who are always underestimated.
@UKLabour: Share the news: David Cameron is now the worst Prime Minister on record for living standards. #CostofCameron http://t.co/2t7gJu4wSa
That graph is a shocker, and the Govts economic plan now depends on driving up house prices.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed
And Cameron and Osborne have been in charge while living standards have plummeted since 2010. Happened on their watch, their fault.
Hmm. They inherited a deficit worse than Greece's. I'm afraid it defies belief that anyone in power wouldn't have had difficulties maintaining levels of personal consumption when having to reduce a 13% of GDP deficit. We were spending £4 for every £3 raised. Couldn't go on.
The Tories can't claim credit for growth whilst disowning the living standards crisis.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
How the hell do you reduce a13% deficit and not affect living standards then? Anyone with half a brain knew this when they voted last time round. Liam Byrne understood there's no more money. Thrre again there are the wishful thinkers...
They could have cut government spending rather than raising taxes.
Comments
Can't wait for politics to Start again.
What's the weather like in Brazil for someone who has been raised in England?
The same as it is for Brazilians?
- Conservatism in London could be a bigger threat to the Union than nationalism in Edinburgh http://www.scotsman.com/news/henry-mcleish-unionists-sunk-by-a-perfect-storm-1-3053476
Hey Tim, how's the preseason going?
Oh...
and 2 :-)
"They did exist in 1945.
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis." "
In other words, a classic example of ex-post facto analysis.
Knowing the result , use suitable parameters and then work backwards to find the answer you want.
Why a factor of 2 ? Why not 1.5 or 3 ?
I also don't like the 'fooled again' part of the LD-Con second coalition story - it says the problem would be 'getting it past' the party, which I'm sure is true, but that just demonstrates it was run by the party last time as well, so how were people fooled in any way? Because it didn't work out well? Because they fear a 'Tory'lite' agenda is a little too acceptable to the leadership of the party, as stated in the article? That doesn't hold much water to me. No-one was fooled last time - either they jumped ship immediately, or they decided initially it was worth the cost (and many now think that was a mistake) but it won't be again. That doesn't mean Clegg fooled anyone, he was just wrong about how it woud work out for them, but then that was always going to be hard.
And am I the only person who is not a Labour or EdM supporter who thinks more of him for shafting his brother? He was ruthless, and didn't allow familial feelings get in the way of what he thought was the best direction for his party, and therefore country (that he assumes his way is best for the party and country is a given, but that's the kind of arrogance political leaders need)
Quotas for women in Parliament is pathetic and indefensible. Women aren't some oppressed minority and the state shouldn't be patronising them or discriminating against men.
Comparing Ed to Caesar.
Trident will be heavily modified. They will suddenly realise that existing subs can work another 5 years. After all, you only need missile to work !
27) Blacklisting is a scandal, and one that has operated for too long.
Incidentally, I see the Spanish Government remains cretinous.
"After the 2010 election I went round Brown's inner court and spoke to his closest allies – Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, Damian McBride, Spencer Livermore, Stan Greenberg and Deborah Mattinson – to understand why Gordon Brown was our greatest failure as prime minister in 200 years."
Thanks to TSE for an interesting selection of articles. They ranged from those I nodded sagely in agreement with to those which irritated and annoyed me ... which is pretty much the ideal response.
(braces self for abuse!)
I suppose I can see why desperate measures like that are proposed, as I don't really see a way to ensure a redressing of the gender imbalance.
Although what sort of quota should there be for ethnic minorities, or the disabled, to be represented in Parliament? Read a fascinating story today about the outgoing vice-president of Ecuador and his 4% disabled employees quota.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23692217
We're just an owner away from a Superbowl.
We're just an owner away
We're just an owner away
- as a fan would say, which of course I am not.
But this does looks like a big one.
The big question is what is Merkel going to do once ( presumably ) elected again. Does she do something for the history books and push Germany and its cash towards more European political and economic integration, and will she chuck Cameron something knowing she can't go down a integrationist route without some risk at least of driving the British further away which is not in Germany's interest IMO.
To add a little information to the debate, the link below is Network Rail's response to some of the alternative schemes that have been devised by opponents. As can be seen, it is a fairly thorough review, and none meet the strategic objectives of HS2.
Whether those strategic objectives are realistic are another matter ...
http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives.pdf
I'm not sure they're up to it though. Votes at 16 and compulsory voting might make for an appetising amuse bouche for 2010 Lib Dems, but it's not going to win over those who currently doubt that Labour's priorities are helping with practical problems.
Nigel Farage wants Ukip to remain 'a bunch of amateurs'
Ukip cannot become a professional political organisation that threatens the main parties because Nigel Farage refuses to give up power over it, the party’s former chief executive has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10255451/Nigel-Farage-wants-Ukip-to-remain-a-bunch-of-amateurs.html
12% 2010 Con, 7% 2010 Lab, 23% 2010 LD 8% 2010 Other.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/SurvationMOS-Summer-Recess-Poll.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2swjJu2OE0&lc=NTFa3BTnWEn6BRlOXUqBZ0BpA7nMOHXWno3ch1A-7NU
Now all I need is some time to read them!
Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 1m
Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
Cameron sent Sir Jeremy Heywood to tell Guardian to hand over Snowden hard drives. Clegg and Hague signed off mission. See tomorrow's Mail
It is my pleasure, night hawks takes about 10 mins in the morning, about 10 mins in the afternoon and about 20 mins in the evening.
And a further 10 mins to work out which subtle pop music references to put in.
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/wgilpin
But £73 billion seems way out from everything I've seen. Given that it's the Treasury, is it a combination of accounting tricks?
And I reckon it'll go on about passengers, and not mention freight once. Just a guess ...
You are being tiresome. The Lebo and Norpoth model/paper is not covert Conservative Party propaganda. It is a sincere and independent attempt by genuine and qualified academics to create an accurate predictive model for UK General Elections.
L&N are quite open about their theory's weaknesses and the model's margins of error, but as it stands, it has proved to be as accurate a predictor of outcomes as any competing work.
A key input to their model is PM approval ratings among polling respondents who identify with the two main parties. So they look at, say, Cameron's ratings among Conservative voters and Labour voters.
In the case of the 1945 election, Churchill had led a National Government and there was no easy way to split out approvals from Conservative and Labour voters. Hence the need to 'split' Churchill's 87% approval rating, which was no doubt also inflated, independently of Churchill's party, by him being the victorious war leader.
1945 is also the first in the sequence of elections modelled by L&N using their retrospective 'electoral cycle' analysis. You will note from their report that error margins, as a trend, fall as the series develops.
Why not read the paper in full? You will see for yourself what the authors are up to. And it is certainly not "working backwards to find the answer [they] want".
Given the increase by the Treasury in the risk assessment from the usual P50 to P95 (see my post earlier in the week), which accounts for most of the recent cost increase, it is suggestive that some in the Treasury are trying to kill the project.
Which is a shame, as it is needed IMHO. And the anti's who use such practices (such as the IEA) need to be careful: any schemes they are in favour of (roads, anyone?) will be treated in exactly the same manner ...
And I was right. It doesn't mention freight or capacity. These journalists are idiots.
Have you seen this
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1876690
We might then understand that the religious have a better lifestyle because they kill off the non-believers.
Or perhaps not... ;-)
1. Data going back to 2007.
2. An explanation of the cause of the fall in living standards.
Mervyn King, in many speeches and reports made both before and after Cameron became PM, set out the consequences for living standards which would result from and were caused by the 2007-9 crash.
Brown was driving the car when it crashed causing injury to multiple victims. Trying to blame their continuing symptoms on the safe driver of a new car is just pure effrontery.
Martin Boon is going to be on, discussing Ed
I'd skip over comment 24 on the first page though
"You can conclude that Sean Thomas has a mental illness"
search for: "Internal Treasury concerns mount over hs2"
The best odds on Spurs being in the Top 4 are now 13/8
Yet Ladbrokes has Spurs at 11/5 to 'win' the Premier League without the Big 3..... Liverpool being 2-1 and Arse 6-4.
Erm isn't the latter the bet to take or is there something in the small print about the big 3 bet, do they have to come behind the big 3?
Speaking from 1st hand knowledge, I think I can say that the experience of growing up with siblings, and its concomitant toughening rivalry, really must be experienced to be fully understood and appreciated.
Mainly because those on the centre and centre-left are generally more intelligent and thoughtful, whereas those out there on the Right tend to be more slack-jawed, reactionary, slightly under-evolved or stuck in their teenage years.
However, living standards plummeted because of stifling growth altogether and all was part of Tory policy, and it is not the Tories fault despite this happening on their watch.
Your economy, happening on your watch, your fault.
Comedy fops.
Anyone spot the problem?
Partisan temporal relevance?
*This can be reversed so that positive happenings are really down to a previous government's efforts coming to fruition, where your party was that previous government.
http://youtu.be/g4GvG0WeKOc
Night all.
There are limits of course, but even if it won't always be convincing, I can't begrudge a first term government heavily leaning on the strategy.
Have a bit on both
http://youtu.be/4ATJ23ftuho
So the only people you don't hate are posh Rightwingers. People like, gosh, yourself!
And those Ladbrokes odds are saying of the 3, Spurs are most likely not to come out best of the not-quite-so-big 3
Ladbrokes: Ed Miliband cut from 14/1 to 10/1 to be replaced as Labour leader this year. #newsnight
http://bit.ly/13CmhbX
Personally I think Spurs are very strong, and could finish above one of the "Big 3", as could Arsenal, who are always underestimated.