politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy has as much fun with choice of pics as Mike and I do
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/720598129146519552
The last golden eagle in England is lost.
England's last golden eagle feared dead after decade trying in vain to attract a mate telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/1… pic.twitter.com/n3Bym9BF9s
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I did, indeed, Mr. G., and the sun was shining and new born lambs are gambolling in the fields. We have lots of problems and lots of things that need to be sorted out but all in all England ain't in that bad a shape.malcolmg said:
Hurst sounds like you had a very pleasant outing indeed.HurstLlama said:Apropos of nothing much I went for a haircut and to do some light grocery shopping in my nearest town today.
The barbers has been taken over by a new chap and I got the best haircut I have had for years, in fact I have never had such a good haircut in the UK. The last time I had such a treat was in the Oman. A real full works job; hair, eyebrows, ears and moustache (gone is my usual walrus, I now have the sort of clipped moustache that would have got an approving nod from my old RSM). Lots of work with an old fashioned razor and even the flaming ball banged against the ears (never seen that outside the ME). All done in silence and for £7 (plus a £3 tip that he tried to refuse). The barber? One Edrogan Tuyuz, a Turk recently settled in the UK.
After that I went to Lidl, where a charming young lady with a very strong East European accent stopped me buying some bread products that were on the shelf because she had a new batch just coming out of the oven that would be fresher and nicer. I also bought sausages from Germany, cured meats from Italy and, of course, cheese from France. All at very reasonable prices. The efficient young lady at the checkout was from Latvia (I asked).
From there to Waitrose for food for my cat (he loves their salmon flakes and will kill for a fresh roasted chicken). The jolly and helpful chap at the check-out was from South Africa.
Finally, to a bar for a drinkie while I waited for the bus home. Owned by a Pole and the waitress was Greek. Friendly, impeccable service and acceptable booze (no Portuguese wine, though).
All in a smallish town in darkest Sussex, the sort of place where Roger of this parish not long ago famously said on here that foreign voices are not heard without comment.
I am still going to vote to leave the EU, mind, and I see no contradiction between that and my very pleasant experiences today.0 -
It's incredible. A decade ago, Spain was an over-levered banking sector masquerading as a country. Now it looks like a real country, with real companies, and real exports, run by sensible folk.MaxPB said:
It's a policy that many of us advocated in the early stages of the migrant crisis. Take in the Syrians, send everyone else back to their nation of origin. Amazingly it worked for the Spanish and they have almost no migrant arriving any more.rcs1000 said:
Very sensible.Sean_F said:
Spain had an influx of boat people a few years ago, from West Africa. They made a point of returning them to their countries of origin, and provided the relevant governments with funding to facilitate this.rcs1000 said:
The really fascinating bit is how Spain - despite having the shortest sea (or, indeed, land) distance to Africa - has only received about 400 migrants this year. It'd be interesting to know how they've managed to keep the numbers down.LewisDuckworth said:
Ooh, Europe becomes more Libyan by the day - although onle (RCS) at the rate of 750,000 a year (and the mix may include West Africans)..Speedy said:
OOPSrcs1000 said:
There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.
1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?
I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.
2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.
4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illemore Libygal-sea-crossings.html
The migrants have switched routes.
(In fact, over the last five years I've found myself more and more impressed by the Spanish.)0 -
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
More dollars are bought and sold in London every day than in New York. More Euros are bought and sold than in the whole of the EZ put together. Do you really think that is going to be magically taken away from us if we leave? I mean really? If it was that simple why have the Americans not done it? The euro is a tradable currency and London is where the trade happens.TOPPING said:
And the EZ is not already federalised. It has a common currency, monetary policy and interest rate but tax and spend is currently decided at national level subject to absolute crises like Greece. This needs to change. The quid pro quo of a single currency is that governments can't spend what they like because it is someone else's money.
But economic policy cannot be decided by the ECB under German domination. They need a multinational democratic institution to hold the bank to account. But at the moment it can't because the closer co-operation allowed by Lisbon does not allow the use of EU institutions like the Parliament. If I was Italian, Greek, Spanish or Portuguese I would be incredibly frustrated with this. Brexit will allow this to change.
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.0 -
Indeed but difficult to predict the turmoil of a post Leave vote and Gove is not much more popular than OsborneSean_F said:
I expect that in 2020, if there is any chance that Corbyn could win, Con-UKIP switchers will return to the Conservatives, as they did in 2015.HYUFD said:
By 2020 could we have left the EU and have Corbyn and McDonnell in No 10? Never mind DC and Brussels, our special relationship would now be with Moscow!Sean_F said:
Currently he's preferred to Corbyn (!) as PM by 32/25%. At the end of last year, it was 49/23%.SeanT said:
His ratings are in freefall.Stark_Dawning said:
Amazing to think that this forum was awash with frothing about Dave's resignation only a week ago. (Of course, we've heard such frothing on 10,000 previous occasions.) I'm beginning to think that Dave is politically invincible.TheScreamingEagles said:Public verdict on tax furore: Dave not so dodgy
British people tend to say David Cameron has not really done anything wrong in terms of his tax and investments – but are strongly in favour of making politicians publish their tax returns
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/nothing-dodgy-about-dave/
Edit, provided of course, that George Osborn isn't Conservative leader.0 -
Hate bastard men? Vote for the Hating Bastard Men Party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZk6Ae241s0 -
F##k me, does Andrew Neil ever sleep? I thought I was busy, but bloody hell look at the number of outside interests he has.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmjournl/journalists.htm0 -
My understanding is that the foreign head of state has to complain. HM is fairly thick skinned in these things I expect.Cyclefree said:
So when that satirist did some rude sketches about our Queen, the German authorities rushed to arrest him, did they?Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, that said, on the prior thread Mr. 1000 said there's apparently a German law which makes it illegal to insult foreign heads of state. Which is crazy.
Mr. Tonda, welcome to pb.com.
Or is it only foreign heads of state who make a fuss, have the Germans by the balls or lead a country where some people think that an insult should lead to a prison sentence or worse that the Germans worry about?0 -
Or more likely that they realise we're grown ups and won't get all huffy and start making threats. The self-abasement before self-important foreign, usually Muslim, leaders is quite pathetic. Not that our own government is free from this nonsense as all the ludicrous over-the-top expressions of condolence nonsense when some Saudi Arabian king died showed.Polruan said:
It's possible that they think of the Queen as a non-foreign head of state.Cyclefree said:
So when that satirist did some rude sketches about our Queen, the German authorities rushed to arrest him, did they?Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, that said, on the prior thread Mr. 1000 said there's apparently a German law which makes it illegal to insult foreign heads of state. Which is crazy.
Mr. Tonda, welcome to pb.com.
Or is it only foreign heads of state who make a fuss, have the Germans by the balls or lead a country where some people think that an insult should lead to a prison sentence or worse that the Germans worry about?
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And they have the cheek to call themselves the Womens Equality Party...very little equality in that video.Morris_Dancer said:Hate bastard men? Vote for the Hating Bastard Men Party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZk6Ae241s0 -
Even if that's true, which I have my doubts over, I don't think the volume of Euros the City of London trades is going to be a compelling argument to Remain in the country.TOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
More dollars are bought and sold in London every day than in New York. More Euros are bought and sold than in the whole of the EZ put together. Do you really think that is going to be magically taken away from us if we leave? I mean really? If it was that simple why have the Americans not done it? The euro is a tradable currency and London is where the trade happens.TOPPING said:
And the EZ is not already federalised. It has a common currency, monetary policy and interest rate but tax and spend is currently decided at national level subject to absolute crises like Greece. This needs to change. The quid pro quo of a single currency is that governments can't spend what they like because it is someone else's money.
But economic policy cannot be decided by the ECB under German domination. They need a multinational democratic institution to hold the bank to account. But at the moment it can't because the closer co-operation allowed by Lisbon does not allow the use of EU institutions like the Parliament. If I was Italian, Greek, Spanish or Portuguese I would be incredibly frustrated with this. Brexit will allow this to change.
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, all genders are equal. But some are more equal than others.0
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Yes, the unemployment rate is starting to come down as well, it should be under 20% by the end of this year, even if we do head into a downturn. The gains that they have made over there look to be permanent ones in terms of competitiveness and even attitude changes to work. I'm really impressed with how they have handled everything in Spain. France, otoh, looks like it is in reverse. Unemployment is rising, competitiveness is falling and the ECB can't continue to ramp up QE indefinitely so they are running out of time.rcs1000 said:It's incredible. A decade ago, Spain was an over-levered banking sector masquerading as a country. Now it looks like a real country, with real companies, and real exports, run by sensible folk.
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I expect so. She's a grown up. Plus we're pretty good historically at the rudest possible satire. Long may it continue.foxinsoxuk said:
My understanding is that the foreign head of state has to complain. HM is fairly thick skinned in these things I expect.Cyclefree said:
So when that satirist did some rude sketches about our Queen, the German authorities rushed to arrest him, did they?Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, that said, on the prior thread Mr. 1000 said there's apparently a German law which makes it illegal to insult foreign heads of state. Which is crazy.
Mr. Tonda, welcome to pb.com.
Or is it only foreign heads of state who make a fuss, have the Germans by the balls or lead a country where some people think that an insult should lead to a prison sentence or worse that the Germans worry about?
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Are you similarly perplexed by those who want the UK to regain democratic accountability and sovereignty by leaving the EU but think Scotland should be satisfied with its current ration (or even less) of these things within the UK?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, perhaps. I am a bit surprised the polls are as they are.
As an aside, I do find those who want Scotland out of the UK but in the EU a bit perplexing. Whilst I disagree with your view on separation, it's entirely coherent. The SNP's view, on the other hand, is mad as a box of frogs.0 -
Although BBC "incorrectly" reported as end of the Spanish Siesta, things are changing in Spain.MaxPB said:
Yes, the unemployment rate is starting to come down as well, it should be under 20% by the end of this year, even if we do head into a downturn. The gains that they have made over there look to be permanent ones in terms of competitiveness and even attitude changes to work. I'm really impressed with how they have handled everything in Spain. France, otoh, looks like it is in reverse. Unemployment is rising, competitiveness is falling and the ECB can't continue to ramp up QE indefinitely so they are running out of time.rcs1000 said:It's incredible. A decade ago, Spain was an over-levered banking sector masquerading as a country. Now it looks like a real country, with real companies, and real exports, run by sensible folk.
Don’t Call It the “End of the Siesta”: What Spain’s New Work Hours Really Mean
https://hbr.org/2016/04/dont-call-it-the-end-of-the-siesta-what-spains-new-work-hours-really-mean0 -
Mr. Divvie, the move of powers is from the UK to the EU, but in the opposite direction regarding devolution within the UK. Also, there was a quite recent vote in Scotland.
Regarding the EU, how are you planning to vote?0 -
Dollar transactions will not be cleared in NY for much longer: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3412933/Clearing-European-banks-weigh-up-US-dollar-clearing-options.htmlTOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.
When the Americans hand over their dollars for goods and services they cease to be their property and they have no right to control who buys or sells them. Of course if they buyers or sellers choose to subject themselves to US law by having a branch there that is a matter for them.
Will Euros be any different? I very much doubt it.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Urquhart, all genders are equal. But some are more equal than others.
two legs good four legs bad,Two boobs good, two balls bad?0 -
Mr. Urquhart, silence, fallopian-deprived ape!0
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So having abandoned the UK why do you care about the referendum? Worried about what will happen when you inevitably return in your old age to make use of government services you haven't paid for.Indigo said:
It tends to have to be something pretty damn big and persistent, it never ceases to amaze how many people have no idea what it going on in their country. I live 8000 miles away most of the time and yet read most of an online newspaper every day, two at weekends, watch the evening news on BBC World and CNN and of course this invaluable resource.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not psychic. Any news could be either good or bad for Out depending upon how people react.geoffw said:
What, for example, would be "bad news for Out"?Philip_Thompson said:
No guarantee for that, bad news can always knock confidence and have a "cling to nurse for fear of worse" effect.geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.
Those who claim to know for certain are generally showing how they think rather than how the nation does. A very large proportion of people's reaction to news is actually to have that confirm their pre-existing gut instinct - meaning that what is good for one side for one voter could be bad for another.0 -
That may change if Podemos form part of the next governmentMaxPB said:
Yes, the unemployment rate is starting to come down as well, it should be under 20% by the end of this year, even if we do head into a downturn. The gains that they have made over there look to be permanent ones in terms of competitiveness and even attitude changes to work. I'm really impressed with how they have handled everything in Spain. France, otoh, looks like it is in reverse. Unemployment is rising, competitiveness is falling and the ECB can't continue to ramp up QE indefinitely so they are running out of time.rcs1000 said:It's incredible. A decade ago, Spain was an over-levered banking sector masquerading as a country. Now it looks like a real country, with real companies, and real exports, run by sensible folk.
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I think they have difficulties as a political party but there is no man-hating in that video. Grow up.Morris_Dancer said:Hate bastard men? Vote for the Hating Bastard Men Party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZk6Ae241s0 -
What proportion of constituency seats are considered marginal in the upcoming Scottish election?foxinsoxuk said:
Nearly all votes are depicted as close or critical in the run up.0 -
Well George thought it worth a court case.Casino_Royale said:
Even if that's true, which I have my doubts over, I don't think the volume of Euros the City of London trades is going to be a compelling argument to Remain in the country.TOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
More dollars are bought and sold in London every day than in New York. Morere the trade happens.TOPPING said:
And the EZ is not already federalised. It has a common currency, monetary policy and interest rate but tax and spend is currently decided at national level subject to absolute crises like Greece. This needs to change. The quid pro quo of a single currency is that governments can't spend what they like becauseent it can't because the closer co-operation allowed by Lisbon does not allow the use of EU institutions like the Parliament. If I was Italian, Greek, Spanish or Portuguese I would be incredibly frustrated with this. Brexit will allow this to change.
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.
But as before we are and should be looking at degrees rather than out of the park black and white.
On balance I think it would be better to remain part of the group where this by legal precedent is not an issue, rather than leave and join the EEA where there is at least a question mark, or Out Out where I think we'd find ourselves back in court pronto.0 -
No and it shows an admirable attitude to equality in showing a young black man sexually harrassing a stranger. Some parties would shrink from that.FrankBooth said:
I think they have difficulties as a political party but there is no man-hating in that video. Grow up.Morris_Dancer said:Hate bastard men? Vote for the Hating Bastard Men Party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZk6Ae241s0 -
@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
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Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.0 -
Mr. Booth, do you think only men commit domestic abuse, and only women are victims?
That's the picture portrayed. It's not unlike the ironically named Disrespect Nobody propaganda, in which all victims are female, and all perpetrators are male.0 -
Perhaps if we ask nicely they'll give Osborne some tips on how to achieve the same here.rcs1000 said:
It's incredible. A decade ago, Spain was an over-levered banking sector masquerading as a country. Now it looks like a real country, with real companies, and real exports, run by sensible folk.MaxPB said:
It's a policy that many of us advocated in the early stages of the migrant crisis. Take in the Syrians, send everyone else back to their nation of origin. Amazingly it worked for the Spanish and they have almost no migrant arriving any more.rcs1000 said:
Very sensible.Sean_F said:
Spain had an influx of boat people a few years ago, from West Africa. They made a point of returning them to their countries of origin, and provided the relevant governments with funding to facilitate this.rcs1000 said:
The really fascinating bit is how Spain - despite having the shortest sea (or, indeed, land) distance to Africa - has only received about 400 migrants this year. It'd be interesting to know how they've managed to keep the numbers down.LewisDuckworth said:
Ooh, Europe becomes more Libyan by the day - although onle (RCS) at the rate of 750,000 a year (and the mix may include West Africans)..Speedy said:
OOPSrcs1000 said:
There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?
I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.
2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.
4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illemore Libygal-sea-crossings.html
The migrants have switched routes.
(In fact, over the last five years I've found myself more and more impressed by the Spanish.)0 -
O/T Blimey!
Katie Hopkins @KTHopkins 58m58 minutes ago
Katie Hopkins Retweeted .
I don't have a uterus. I have a Tunnel of Turmoil. 11lb baby..no stitches. Next?Katie Hopkins added,
. @iAarsh
@KTHopkins bitch I hope you die with uterus cancer.
19 retweets 82 likes
Reply Retweet 19
Like 82
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Not many! So far as I know.initforthemoney said:
What proportion of constituency seats are considered marginal in the upcoming Scottish election?foxinsoxuk said:
Nearly all votes are depicted as close or critical in the run up.
There are exceptions, but generally the media and both parties like a story of a tight race. In Scotland the story is the race for second place, and official opposition status.0 -
The government take quite a pragmatic view on social security contributions. Once you consider people moving in the other direction for their retirement, I don't suppose it actually amounts to much of a difference. Similar arrangements exists in other countries.saddened said:
So having abandoned the UK why do you care about the referendum? Worried about what will happen when you inevitably return in your old age to make use of government services you haven't paid for.Indigo said:
It tends to have to be something pretty damn big and persistent, it never ceases to amaze how many people have no idea what it going on in their country. I live 8000 miles away most of the time and yet read most of an online newspaper every day, two at weekends, watch the evening news on BBC World and CNN and of course this invaluable resource.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not psychic. Any news could be either good or bad for Out depending upon how people react.geoffw said:
What, for example, would be "bad news for Out"?Philip_Thompson said:
No guarantee for that, bad news can always knock confidence and have a "cling to nurse for fear of worse" effect.geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.
Those who claim to know for certain are generally showing how they think rather than how the nation does. A very large proportion of people's reaction to news is actually to have that confirm their pre-existing gut instinct - meaning that what is good for one side for one voter could be bad for another.0 -
Interesting article thanks as you will have read, this would not be a magic bullet (as the last sentence confirms).DavidL said:
Dollar transactions will not be cleared in NY for much longer: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3412933/Clearing-European-banks-weigh-up-US-dollar-clearing-options.htmlTOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.
When the Americans hand over their dollars for goods and services they cease to be their property and they have no right to control who buys or sells them. Of course if they buyers or sellers choose to subject themselves to US law by having a branch there that is a matter for them.
Will Euros be any different? I very much doubt it.
But aren't we looking at quite a swerve to fix something that is not particularly broken today?0 -
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.0 -
Please explain. Why did the Fed not shut down the Eurodollar market when it was set up to get around US restrictions?TOPPING said:
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.
A fully convertible currency can be traded and cleared anywhere. If it can't it isn't convertible any more and won't be a reserve currency any longer either.0 -
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.0 -
National - CBS
Trump 42 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 18
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-donald-trump-holds-onto-national-lead/
....................................................................
Pennsylvania - Monmouth Uni
Trump 44 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 23
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9e5f182c-8705-4e64-9a4b-ba4385c51549.pdf0 -
I think that there are a few that might be close. Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Ayr, Galloway and West Dumfries and the Shetland Islands are all possibilities for a very close result.foxinsoxuk said:
Not many! So far as I know.initforthemoney said:
What proportion of constituency seats are considered marginal in the upcoming Scottish election?foxinsoxuk said:
Nearly all votes are depicted as close or critical in the run up.
There are exceptions, but generally the media and both parties like a story of a tight race. In Scotland the story is the race for second place, and official opposition status.
0 -
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate0 -
There's plenty of synthetic US Dollar clearing in London already. But I have to work :-)runnymede said:
Please explain. Why did the Fed not shut down the Eurodollar market when it was set up to get around US restrictions?TOPPING said:
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.
A fully convertible currency can be traded and cleared anywhere. If it can't it isn't convertible any more and won't be a reserve currency any longer either.0 -
When it was looking likely that EdM would end up in No10 last year, the was a oft held view by right leaning commenters that perhaps the country needed just one last really bad dose of Labour to finally convince the voters that there really was no magic money tree, and that Labour really was an idea whose time had been and gone.
There is still a lot of truth in that view, because public clearly do think there is still a magic money tree, and the recent polling suggests that a sizeable number don't only feel that Labour might still have some nice comforting answers, rather than face then nasty facts of life, they are even prepared to listen to an idiot like Corbyn. The infantilization of a large chunk of the population appears to proceed apace, please, someone, anyone, conjure up some money from the magic tree so we can continue to spend more than we earn!
I believe we are now in the same place vis-a-vis the EU, we can see that the EU administration is a shambles, it is sclerotic and almost paralysed by a sense of its own self-worth, and that it has no more useful answers to the problems of the day than did Ed Miliband, or does Jeremy Corbyn. But it continues to make the sort of comforting noises that prevent the population having to think to hard about the issues of the world. Everything will be alright so long as we stay close to nurse!
We haven't yet had the catastrophic over-reach or mishandling that is long overdue, and might eventually make its way into the public consciousness firmly enough to make people wake up and take note. Somewhen, hopefully not for a while, there will be a terror campaign in the EU, or UK mainland, not just one off events, and the public will realise that you can have either open borders or security. Somewhen, Greece will finally crash into the wall of financial reality, and lots of countries will end up having to pick up very large tabs. The EU hasn't quite become bad enough to force a convincing Leave narrative this time, unless a lot of stars align, but give it time.0 -
No we are assessing the possible downsides of something with definite upsides. It is not a straightforward equation on either side of the balance sheet.TOPPING said:
Interesting article thanks as you will have read, this would not be a magic bullet (as the last sentence confirms).DavidL said:
Dollar transactions will not be cleared in NY for much longer: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3412933/Clearing-European-banks-weigh-up-US-dollar-clearing-options.htmlTOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.
When the Americans hand over their dollars for goods and services they cease to be their property and they have no right to control who buys or sells them. Of course if they buyers or sellers choose to subject themselves to US law by having a branch there that is a matter for them.
Will Euros be any different? I very much doubt it.
But aren't we looking at quite a swerve to fix something that is not particularly broken today?0 -
Because I haven't wise ass.saddened said:
So having abandoned the UK why do you care about the referendum? Worried about what will happen when you inevitably return in your old age to make use of government services you haven't paid for.Indigo said:
It tends to have to be something pretty damn big and persistent, it never ceases to amaze how many people have no idea what it going on in their country. I live 8000 miles away most of the time and yet read most of an online newspaper every day, two at weekends, watch the evening news on BBC World and CNN and of course this invaluable resource.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not psychic. Any news could be either good or bad for Out depending upon how people react.geoffw said:
What, for example, would be "bad news for Out"?Philip_Thompson said:
No guarantee for that, bad news can always knock confidence and have a "cling to nurse for fear of worse" effect.geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.
Those who claim to know for certain are generally showing how they think rather than how the nation does. A very large proportion of people's reaction to news is actually to have that confirm their pre-existing gut instinct - meaning that what is good for one side for one voter could be bad for another.
My family is still in the UK, my children are at school in the UK, and I would be in the UK as well if there hadn't been some serious f*ck ups which I can't discuss here at the moment. It is more likely as long as I can get thing straightened out, that I will be back in the UK shortly, and retire out here when I get into old age.
Apart from that you were spot on, well done.0 -
The NHS seems to be a very effective attack line, particularly the point we'd have hundreds of millions a week extra to spend on it.MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I'd never have thought that, and it wouldn't work on me, but it seems to have real traction. Much to my surprise.
I'd also seek to use Lord Rose's comments against him that wages would rise.
People love voting for a pay rise.
Also lower food prices from scrapping CAP/CFP and possibly fuel/energy prices too
Make Leave a positive economic choice.0 -
Yes Robert I know...me too,,,rcs1000 said:
There's plenty of synthetic US Dollar clearing in London already. But I have to work :-)runnymede said:
Please explain. Why did the Fed not shut down the Eurodollar market when it was set up to get around US restrictions?TOPPING said:
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.
A fully convertible currency can be traded and cleared anywhere. If it can't it isn't convertible any more and won't be a reserve currency any longer either.0 -
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.0 -
Mr. Royale, an issue with politics and life generally is that most individuals assume themselves to be normal, the baseline by which all else should be measured.
It can be hard to see how effective (or weak) lines might be if they don't work on oneself.
Not quite the NHS, but I did wonder previously why the TTIP business wasn't being banged on about, particularly by those on the left who want us to leave the EU.0 -
Have you been banished to some remote location? Hopefully you can get it sorted out soon, especially as you are separated from your family.Indigo said:
Because I haven't wise ass.saddened said:
So having abandoned the UK why do you care about the referendum? Worried about what will happen when you inevitably return in your old age to make use of government services you haven't paid for.Indigo said:
It tends to have to be something pretty damn big and persistent, it never ceases to amaze how many people have no idea what it going on in their country. I live 8000 miles away most of the time and yet read most of an online newspaper every day, two at weekends, watch the evening news on BBC World and CNN and of course this invaluable resource.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not psychic. Any news could be either good or bad for Out depending upon how people react.geoffw said:
What, for example, would be "bad news for Out"?Philip_Thompson said:
No guarantee for that, bad news can always knock confidence and have a "cling to nurse for fear of worse" effect.geoffw said:
In this case it is justified.AlastairMeeks said:You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.
Those who claim to know for certain are generally showing how they think rather than how the nation does. A very large proportion of people's reaction to news is actually to have that confirm their pre-existing gut instinct - meaning that what is good for one side for one voter could be bad for another.
My family is still in the UK, my children are at school in the UK, and I would be in the UK as well if there hadn't been some serious f*ck ups which I can't discuss here at the moment. It is more likely as long as I can get thing straightened out, that I will be back in the UK shortly, and retire out here when I get into old age.
Apart from that you were spot on, well done.0 -
Horsemeat scandal part deux.rcs1000 said:
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.0 -
Mr. Indigo, hope you can return soon.0
-
AS I posted downthread, the number of people who think the NHS would be better under brexit is double those who think it would be worse (Britain elects).Casino_Royale said:
The NHS seems to be a very effective attack line, particularly the point we'd have hundreds of millions a week extra to spend on it.MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I'd never have thought that, and it wouldn't work on me, but it seems to have real traction. Much to my surprise.
I'd also seek to use Lord Rose's comments against him that wages would rise.
People love voting for a pay rise.
Also lower food prices from scrapping CAP/CFP and possibly fuel/energy prices too
Make Leave a positive economic choice.
Conversely, people think prices would rise if we left, so leave has some work to do there. But the idea of trading with African farmers impoverished by the EU should be immensely appealing.0 -
Soylent GreenLuckyguy1983 said:
Horsemeat scandal part deux.rcs1000 said:
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.
0 -
I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html0 -
MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I can't see Leave having much effect on the NHS one way or the other, but clearly, the NHS argument resonates with a lot of people.Casino_Royale said:
The NHS seems to be a very effective attack line, particularly the point we'd have hundreds of millions a week extra to spend on it.MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I'd never have thought that, and it wouldn't work on me, but it seems to have real traction. Much to my surprise.
I'd also seek to use Lord Rose's comments against him that wages would rise.
People love voting for a pay rise.
Also lower food prices from scrapping CAP/CFP and possibly fuel/energy prices too
Make Leave a positive economic choice.
Arguments for Remain based on the availability of cheap labour may appeal to a certain type of Conservative, but they won't have general appeal.
0 -
Britain will become like the society in Logan's Run.rcs1000 said:
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.0 -
A vastly disproportionate number of perpetrators are male and a disproportionate number of victims are female.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, do you think only men commit domestic abuse, and only women are victims?
That's the picture portrayed. It's not unlike the ironically named Disrespect Nobody propaganda, in which all victims are female, and all perpetrators are male.0 -
-
A vastly disproportionate number of perpetrators are male and a disproportionate number of victims are female.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, do you think only men commit domestic abuse, and only women are victims?
That's the picture portrayed. It's not unlike the ironically named Disrespect Nobody propaganda, in which all victims are female, and all perpetrators are male.0 -
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html0 -
Indeed. Bit chewy but probably ok if left in the slow cooker for a few days.Blue_rog said:
Soylent GreenLuckyguy1983 said:
Horsemeat scandal part deux.rcs1000 said:
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.0 -
Again you're looking for absolutes. The physical currency is cleared through NY. You can be as creative synthetically as you want but them's the rules.runnymede said:
Please explain. Why did the Fed not shut down the Eurodollar market when it was set up to get around US restrictions?TOPPING said:
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.
A fully convertible currency can be traded and cleared anywhere. If it can't it isn't convertible any more and won't be a reserve currency any longer either.0 -
Mr Dancer, Mr D, Thank you for your thoughts, I hope so too. As you can appreciate these sort of circumstances can make one a little testy from time to time, especially when comedians make generalisations about your circumstances without being in possession of any of the facts
0 -
And that is my point. I believe the trade off isn't worth it. You do,DavidL said:
No we are assessing the possible downsides of something with definite upsides. It is not a straightforward equation on either side of the balance sheet.TOPPING said:
Interesting article thanks as you will have read, this would not be a magic bullet (as the last sentence confirms).DavidL said:
Dollar transactions will not be cleared in NY for much longer: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3412933/Clearing-European-banks-weigh-up-US-dollar-clearing-options.htmlTOPPING said:
All dollar transactions are cleared through NY. If you are trading dollars you are following US law. I know, you hadn't noticed and yes you're right it really doesn't matter. Unless the US decides it doesn't like something you've done with any one of those myriad transactions and then you are hauled up in front of them and your fine is likely to be measured in yards (and I'm not talking the three feet long ones).DavidL said:
So far so good.
Now, as part of the single market, we are part of the club. The ECB allows EUR-denominated transaction to be cleared throughout the single market, not just in the EZ, as the by now famous (on PB!) court case LCH vs ECB determined.
However, were we not to be part of the single market (EEA? Who knows), the ECB might take a different view. Why wouldn't they? We would in any case continue to subject to ECB oversight for those EUR cleared transactions. As part of the EU that's cool because we're all on the same side. Outside it? Who knows.
So we would be choosing to eject ourselves from that club with all the uncertainty which would entail and I don't see that as an optimal course of action.
When the Americans hand over their dollars for goods and services they cease to be their property and they have no right to control who buys or sells them. Of course if they buyers or sellers choose to subject themselves to US law by having a branch there that is a matter for them.
Will Euros be any different? I very much doubt it.
But aren't we looking at quite a swerve to fix something that is not particularly broken today?0 -
Oh, I've always known I'm not normal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, an issue with politics and life generally is that most individuals assume themselves to be normal, the baseline by which all else should be measured.
It can be hard to see how effective (or weak) lines might be if they don't work on oneself.
Not quite the NHS, but I did wonder previously why the TTIP business wasn't being banged on about, particularly by those on the left who want us to leave the EU.0 -
Mr. Wanderer, that's not the case. Estimates vary, but 35-45% of domestic abuse victims being male is a common range. One recent Canadian study found a majority of victims being male.
Whilst there is an imbalance, it's far less than many realise. The disproportionate gender split is on funding for domestic violence victims, rather than the victims/perpetrators.0 -
If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as wellrcs1000 said:
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html 0 -
Except when they aren't.Wanderer said:
A vastly disproportionate number of perpetrators are male and a disproportionate number of victims are female.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, do you think only men commit domestic abuse, and only women are victims?
That's the picture portrayed. It's not unlike the ironically named Disrespect Nobody propaganda, in which all victims are female, and all perpetrators are male.
Why do you think is it acceptable to ignore the minority?0 -
The biggest lesson I've learned from a 20 year career finance is: if you don't like what the numbers are telling you, your first though must not be "they must be wrong"Indigo said:
If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as wellrcs1000 said:
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html0 -
Jenny Agutter on speed dial?Sean_F said:
Britain will become like the society in Logan's Run.rcs1000 said:
Pensions?Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
If Leave win, the lucky old people will be rounded up and forced into workhouses. We'll rent out old people to multinational corporations as slaves.
And don't ask me what'll happen to the unlucky oldies.0 -
Sorry this is just wrong. It doesn't even require synthetic clearing. You can in principle clear a convertible currency anywhere. I notice you haven't responded to my query. I think you are waffling now.TOPPING said:
Again you're looking for absolutes. The physical currency is cleared through NY. You can be as creative synthetically as you want but them's the rules.runnymede said:
Please explain. Why did the Fed not shut down the Eurodollar market when it was set up to get around US restrictions?TOPPING said:
See the article linked by @DavidL and my response it wd still be sanctioned one way or another by the Fed.runnymede said:Re euro/dollar clearing
Interestingly there is some talk now of European banks setting up dollar clearing operations outside the US. There is no reason in principle why that couldn't happen. Overly onerous US regulation led to the creation of the eurobond market in London many years ago.
Similarly there is no particular reason why euro clearing need take place in the Eurozone, especially if it becomes annoying or costly to do so - again, unless we assume exchange controls are on the way. Huge volumes of these reserve currencies are held outside the countries which they are the currency of.
A fully convertible currency can be traded and cleared anywhere. If it can't it isn't convertible any more and won't be a reserve currency any longer either.0 -
It's not that if a client lied to you last time about the value of something, it's not inconceivable that he might lie to you about it the next time as well ?rcs1000 said:
The biggest lesson I've learned from a 20 year career finance is: if you don't like what the numbers are telling you, your first though must not be "they must be wrong"Indigo said:
If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as wellrcs1000 said:
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html 0 -
And 4,000+ are rescued by naval vessels in a couple of days last week on the Libya-Sicily crossing route. Plug one hole and another becomes more popular.AlastairMeeks said:Good news is no news:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT
"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."0 -
Oh dear...outrage bus being fired up...
The Spectator magazine assistant editor complained to party whips after the 66-year-old [Tory MP Col Bob Stewart] approached her on Monday and declared: “I want to talk to the totty.”
http://order-order.com/2016/04/14/totty-watch-poll/0 -
john_zims said:
@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
0 -
When you get down to it Remain boils down to pant-shitting about the transition costs, thinking we'd be a pariah state outside it, thinking the EU would do us over in revenge, thinking no one would deal with us or trade with us globally on services, so we'd best take 'the bird in the hand' inside the EU, or thinking the UK would regress socially, culturally and ethically back to the Stone Age or just detesting the sorts of people who back Leave.taffys said:
AS I posted downthread, the number of people who think the NHS would be better under brexit is double those who think it would be worse (Britain elects).Casino_Royale said:
The NHS seems to be a very effective attack line, particularly the point we'd have hundreds of millions a week extra to spend on it.MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I'd never have thought that, and it wouldn't work on me, but it seems to have real traction. Much to my surprise.
I'd also seek to use Lord Rose's comments against him that wages would rise.
People love voting for a pay rise.
Also lower food prices from scrapping CAP/CFP and possibly fuel/energy prices too
Make Leave a positive economic choice.
Conversely, people think prices would rise if we left, so leave has some work to do there. But the idea of trading with African farmers impoverished by the EU should be immensely appealing.
None are particularly positive arguments.
0 -
Indigo. Come on. Do you believe there's a conspiracy between the Greek government, the UN and the EU? Really?Indigo said:
It's not that if a client lied to you last time about the value of something, it's not inconceivable that he might lie to you about it the next time as well ?rcs1000 said:
The biggest lesson I've learned from a 20 year career finance is: if you don't like what the numbers are telling you, your first though must not be "they must be wrong"Indigo said:
If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as wellrcs1000 said:
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html0 -
The economically crazy triple lock stops any attempt to cast fear over pension payments.Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.0 -
None of them is especially credible either, but there is whole rafts of ignorance and disinterest that can be used to their advantageCasino_Royale said:
When you get down to it Remain boils down to pant-shitting about the transition costs, thinking we'd be a pariah state outside it, thinking the EU would do us over in revenge, thinking no one would deal with us or trade with us globally on services, so we'd best take 'the bird in the hand' inside the EU, or thinking the UK would regress socially, culturally and ethically back to the Stone Age or just detesting the sorts of people who back Leave.taffys said:
AS I posted downthread, the number of people who think the NHS would be better under brexit is double those who think it would be worse (Britain elects).Casino_Royale said:
The NHS seems to be a very effective attack line, particularly the point we'd have hundreds of millions a week extra to spend on it.MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:Sean_F said:WRT Saftey First, there doesn't seem to be much in it.
42% think it's safer to Remain; 35% think it's safer to Leave.
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
I'd never have thought that, and it wouldn't work on me, but it seems to have real traction. Much to my surprise.
I'd also seek to use Lord Rose's comments against him that wages would rise.
People love voting for a pay rise.
Also lower food prices from scrapping CAP/CFP and possibly fuel/energy prices too
Make Leave a positive economic choice.
Conversely, people think prices would rise if we left, so leave has some work to do there. But the idea of trading with African farmers impoverished by the EU should be immensely appealing.
None are particularly positive arguments. 0 -
Miss* Sarissa, welcome back.
*Hope I've remembered that correctly.0 -
Don't leave Boris Johnson alone with your daughter warns Red Ken [who has fathered five children by three women]...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539907/Talk-pot-kettle-Don-t-leave-Boris-Johnson-daughter-warns-Red-Ken-fathered-five-children-three-women.html
At least I guess he isn't calling for prison time...0 -
Remember the Scottish referendum.
Just before the vote Gordon Brown started talking about the State Pension.
It was an absolute masterstroke. Up to then nobody had said anything about the State Pension - and who would have even thought of doing so?
But that's what Brown did. And you can just imagine the effect - many people who might have been 50:50 suddenly thinking:
"Oh my [expletive] ....... I never dreamt an independent Scotland might not be able to afford the current State Pension ........ oh my [expletive] ......... forget it ......... that's it ...........I'm not chancing this".
Job done.
No doubt Remain will go for something similar.0 -
Mr. L, indeed. The potential problem is that Remain has also been claiming all manner of woe and doom, so their credibility may be diminished, and the pension is a UK thing. It's not paid by the EU, after all.0
-
It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.0
-
Bah I don't think Brown's impact was all that it's cracked up to be. Besides a couple of rogue polls the polls barely budged from late August or any of September. After the second debate the polls pretty much flatlined at a 5% No Lead with no movement regardless of Brown's intervention. The polls nine days after Brown's intervention were identical to the polls two weeks before his intervention.MikeL said:Remember the Scottish referendum.
Just before the vote Gordon Brown started talking about the State Pension.
It was an absolute masterstroke. Up to then nobody had said anything about the State Pension - and who would have even thought of doing so?
But that's what Brown did. And you can just imagine the effect - many people who might have been 50:50 suddenly thinking:
"Oh my [expletive] ....... I never dreamt an independent Scotland might not be able to afford the current State Pension ........ oh my [expletive] ......... forget it ......... that's it ...........I 'm not chancing this".
Job done.
No doubt Remain will go for something similar.0 -
Wasn't the Scottish government's price projection even higher? Degrees of wrongness in this case!Alistair said:john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.0 -
There is not enough tinfoil in the world!Indigo said:
If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as wellrcs1000 said:
It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.FrancisUrquhart said:I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...
Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html
The migrant crisis is out of the news because there are not the vast numbers arriving in Greece there once were. At the moment at least the Balkan route is closed. Word soon gets back.
The Libyan route will be trickier to close because of it being a failed state, and most of the migrants there are of West and East African origin rather than Asian.0 -
Indigo said:
It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.
0 -
Triple Lock in jeopardy because of Brexit is bound to appear as a headline at some point.Alistair said:
The economically crazy triple lock stops any attempt to cast fear over pension payments.Casino_Royale said:
I think MalcolmG is probably right. The oldies are those who vote.john_zims said:@malcolmg
'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '
But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.
All Remain have to do is take the worst possible figure for Brexit and map the % GDP shrink to the average pension payment.
E.g. "Vote Leave and your pension will shrink by over £30 a week and you'll be £1,560 a year worse off"
It'll be utter bollocks, but it will worry some.
0 -
Arron Banks sees sense. Phew, that was a close one.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/7206029964601548810 -
http://order-order.com/2016/04/14/totty-watch-poll/FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear...outrage bus being fired up...
The Spectator magazine assistant editor complained to party whips after the 66-year-old [Tory MP Col Bob Stewart] approached her on Monday and declared: “I want to talk to the totty.”
He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.0 -
On topic.
Leave is already on course to neutralize it:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ugdbpjyfyn/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf
And taking everything into account, what do you think would be
the SAFER course of action – remaining in the European Union
or leaving the European Union? (change from Feb.21-22) :
Remaining in the European Union 42 -1
Leaving the European Union 35 +40 -
I think we need a caption competition for this.Scott_P said:0 -
It's downright unfair to spoil everything by pointing out the facts.rcs1000 said:FPT:
We can't be forced into the Euro because it would require a Treaty Change - approved by all 28 countries - to require Euro membership. Likewise, the treaties recognise the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland. To change that, you would need to change the treaties, which would (again) require 28 signatures.ThreeQuidder said:
It's the future. Nobody can guarantee anything. Remain can't guarantee we won't be forced into the Euro and Schengen.TheScreamingEagles said:
But can you guarantee they'll give us terms comparable to what we have now?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the currency comparison is wrong.
The Yes campaign wanted it, the rest of the UK did not.
Post UK exit, both the UK and the EU will want a trading relationship. You can argue about how that might work precisely, but the EU is not going to try and stop all trade between it and the UK.0 -
That won't work, for two good reasons:MarqueeMark said:
The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:
1. Out
2. Absorption into a European superstate
- The 'European superstate' argument is one which only the already-converted believe, and anyway it's too abstract. It's also easily countered with talk by Remain of vetos, opt-outs and the referendum lock.
- In any case, if the EU were to develop in some way which is unacceptable, we can still leave in the future anyway. We won't have closed off that option irrevocably.
The risk of Brexit is here and now - this year. The risk which the Leave campaign want to counter it with is speculative and distant.
Therefore, what Leave need to do (or, rather, needed to so, it's too late now) is come up with a serious plan for Brexit risk mitigation. Instead they have just pretended there's no serious risk, which is silly.0 -
So the choices are to give up or to plug all the holes.sarissa said:
And 4,000+ are rescued by naval vessels in a couple of days last week on the Libya-Sicily crossing route. Plug one hole and another becomes more popular.AlastairMeeks said:Good news is no news:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT
"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."0 -
http://order-order.com/2016/04/14/totty-watch-poll/FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear...outrage bus being fired up...
The Spectator magazine assistant editor complained to party whips after the 66-year-old [Tory MP Col Bob Stewart] approached her on Monday and declared: “I want to talk to the totty.”
It's not an outrage point, it's a decency point and Stewart's failed. It's a pretty clear comment on him.0 -
Oh don't get me wrong the guy sounds like a buffoon.RobD said:
He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.0
