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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311

    MikeL said:

    Remember the Scottish referendum.

    Just before the vote Gordon Brown started talking about the State Pension.

    It was an absolute masterstroke. Up to then nobody had said anything about the State Pension - and who would have even thought of doing so?

    But that's what Brown did. And you can just imagine the effect - many people who might have been 50:50 suddenly thinking:

    "Oh my [expletive] ....... I never dreamt an independent Scotland might not be able to afford the current State Pension ........ oh my [expletive] ......... forget it ......... that's it ...........I 'm not chancing this".

    Job done.

    No doubt Remain will go for something similar.

    Bah I don't think Brown's impact was all that it's cracked up to be. Besides a couple of rogue polls the polls barely budged from late August or any of September. After the second debate the polls pretty much flatlined at a 5% No Lead with no movement regardless of Brown's intervention. The polls nine days after Brown's intervention were identical to the polls two weeks before his intervention.
    Easy to say after the event - I don't recall people thinking No was a dead cert at the time.

    And No won by 11% in the end - people switched late. Why? Well we don't know but seems likely because they were scared. Brown's State Pension stuff may have only have shown up once people got to the polling station.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,800
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    john_zims said:

    @malcolmg

    'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '


    But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.

    image
    Wasn't the Scottish government's price projection even higher? Degrees of wrongness in this case!
    The Scottish Government did not make any predictions from its own raw research - these were all by respected bodies and at that time were used for UK and international revenue predictions as well.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    RobD said:


    He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.

    Oh don't get me wrong the guy sounds like a buffoon.
    Excellent, a virtue signalling opportunity to sound self-righteous and pure.

    Can I join in? Is there a queue forming yet?

    Yes! Buffoon! Stone him!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Remember the Scottish referendum.

    Just before the vote Gordon Brown started talking about the State Pension.

    It was an absolute masterstroke. Up to then nobody had said anything about the State Pension - and who would have even thought of doing so?

    But that's what Brown did. And you can just imagine the effect - many people who might have been 50:50 suddenly thinking:

    "Oh my [expletive] ....... I never dreamt an independent Scotland might not be able to afford the current State Pension ........ oh my [expletive] ......... forget it ......... that's it ...........I 'm not chancing this".

    Job done.

    No doubt Remain will go for something similar.

    Bah I don't think Brown's impact was all that it's cracked up to be. Besides a couple of rogue polls the polls barely budged from late August or any of September. After the second debate the polls pretty much flatlined at a 5% No Lead with no movement regardless of Brown's intervention. The polls nine days after Brown's intervention were identical to the polls two weeks before his intervention.
    Easy to say after the event - I don't recall people thinking No was a dead cert at the time.

    And No won by 11% in the end - people switched late. Why? Well we don't know but seems likely because they were scared. Brown's State Pension stuff may have only have shown up once people got to the polling station.
    DKs voted No. There was no late switching to No. All the evidence shows that Yes voters were by far the most likely to have made up their mind late. The Majority of No voters had made up their mind more than a year in advance/were always voting No regardless.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:


    He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.

    Oh don't get me wrong the guy sounds like a buffoon.
    Excellent, a virtue signalling opportunity to sound self-righteous and pure.

    Can I join in? Is there a queue forming yet?

    Yes! Buffoon! Stone him!
    A bit of mild mockery perhaps?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2016


    The challenge for Leave over the coming weeks is to get the public to see that Remain is just as uncertain. There is no safe "status quo" option. There are only two options:

    1. Out

    2. Absorption into a European superstate

    That won't work, for two good reasons:

    - The 'European superstate' argument is one which only the already-converted believe, and anyway it's too abstract. It's also easily countered with talk by Remain of vetos, opt-outs and the referendum lock.

    - In any case, if the EU were to develop in some way which is unacceptable, we can still leave in the future anyway. We won't have closed off that option irrevocably.

    The risk of Brexit is here and now - this year. The risk which the Leave campaign want to counter it with is speculative and distant.

    Therefore, what Leave need to do (or, rather, needed to so, it's too late now) is come up with a serious plan for Brexit risk mitigation. Instead they have just pretended there's no serious risk, which is silly.
    It is worth noting that the direction of travel of the EU (and its precursors) over the last 40 years has been very much in the direction that we in the UK have advocated: a gradual shrinkage of the CAP from 71% of the budget and oriented to producer subsidies to just 38% and that now weighted to environmental protection and rural development, expansion of the EU to the East and South, breaking down of non-tariff barriers to trade in services etc etc.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    sarissa said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    john_zims said:

    @malcolmg

    'As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off. '


    But the old fuddy duddies were spot on when it came to the crazy oil price forecast the SNP tried to con the voters with.

    image
    Wasn't the Scottish government's price projection even higher? Degrees of wrongness in this case!
    The Scottish Government did not make any predictions from its own raw research - these were all by respected bodies and at that time were used for UK and international revenue predictions as well.
    But the two projections were different, and the Scottish government used the higher one?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    dr_spyn said:
    Tipping point...
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mr. Wanderer, that's not the case. Estimates vary, but 35-45% of domestic abuse victims being male is a common range. One recent Canadian study found a majority of victims being male.

    Whilst there is an imbalance, it's far less than many realise. The disproportionate gender split is on funding for domestic violence victims, rather than the victims/perpetrators.

    As I understand it those studies include non-violent abuse. That may be a very unpleasant thing but one should be clear about definitions.

    I see here http://www.lwa.org.uk/understanding-abuse/statistics.htm that LWA quotes to an average of 100 female and 30 male domestic murder victims in the UK each here. That seems to be reflected in the figures here https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/women-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2013 which also, strikingly, show a huge imbalance in the number of younger women 16-34 who self-report being the victims of domestic violence. The numbers even up, though, as people get older.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @FrancisUrquhart

    'I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...

    Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut'


    So by the summer we will be back to the same rate of migration as last year but the main route has changed.

    Are Junker & Merkel going to offer the same in/out deal with Libya ?

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    Unless of course you assume Britons are stupid children.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    I don't think that's the reason people are voting leave....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    Now you are sounding rather desperate.

    Go lie down for a bit. You'll feel better for it.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    dr_spyn said:

    That relies on the big assumption that anywhere else would have him...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Wanderer, men are (I believe) less likely than women to report being victims of domestic violence, so reported crimes in a given year may not be the most accurate approach (still worthwhile, though, if only to track trends).
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we need a caption competition for this.
    Ever since I left the city you started wearing less and going out more, glasses of champagne out on the dance floor, hanging with some girls I've never seen before.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Can someone explain to me why John Kasich is now trading at 11/1 for the Republican nomination on Betfair? Isn't a zero missing?
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    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    I don't think that's the reason people are voting leave....
    Obviously there are other issues too.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Corbyn makes his support for the EU absolutely clear (or the EU is absolutely crap but vote Remain anyway):

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/720548246976884736
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    We're apprentice too stupid to sort that out on our own? It was basically feudal before 1973.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Tory MP not happy about tax cuts over health and welfare issues, especially for mentally ill:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/14/middle-class-tax-cuts-wrong-when-so-many-rely-the-state

    I wonder what Steven Crabb's view on this is?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Speedy said:

    Corbyn makes his support for the EU absolutely clear (or the EU is absolutely crap but vote Remain anyway):

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/720548246976884736

    The EU: she's ugly, but at least I get a shag....
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222

    Don't leave Boris Johnson alone with your daughter warns Red Ken [who has fathered five children by three women]...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539907/Talk-pot-kettle-Don-t-leave-Boris-Johnson-daughter-warns-Red-Ken-fathered-five-children-three-women.html

    At least I guess he isn't calling for prison time...

    This would be the man who it was said would approach women in the morning making comments about his person and how it resembled a broom handle, would it? Allegedly etc....

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    dr_spyn said:

    That relies on the big assumption that anywhere else would have him...
    Venezuela?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:


    He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.

    Oh don't get me wrong the guy sounds like a buffoon.
    Excellent, a virtue signalling opportunity to sound self-righteous and pure.

    Can I join in? Is there a queue forming yet?

    Yes! Buffoon! Stone him!
    A bit of mild mockery perhaps?
    I'm not getting out of bed for anything less than angry villagers running around with torches and pitchforks.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314

    Can someone explain to me why John Kasich is now trading at 11/1 for the Republican nomination on Betfair? Isn't a zero missing?

    No idea. I guess people are thinking that somehow he falls into it at a contested convention.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Corbyn makes his support for the EU absolutely clear (or the EU is absolutely crap but vote Remain anyway):

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/720548246976884736

    The EU: she's ugly, but at least I get a shag....
    A winning argument, full of confidence.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mr. Wanderer, men are (I believe) less likely than women to report being victims of domestic violence, so reported crimes in a given year may not be the most accurate approach (still worthwhile, though, if only to track trends).

    That's a valid point. The imbalance in murders doesn't depend on self-reporting though.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we need a caption competition for this.
    Wasn't that won this morning by the poster who put "Worst sex chat line ever"?

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    dr_spyn said:

    That relies on the big assumption that anywhere else would have him...
    Venezuela?
    Only to ransom...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Wanderer, aye, that is true.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    RobD said:


    He's clearly not subtle enough! Saying that, I think it's fair enough to be a bit miffed. She's a pretty good journalist IMO, and should be seen as such.

    Oh don't get me wrong the guy sounds like a buffoon.
    Excellent, a virtue signalling opportunity to sound self-righteous and pure.

    Can I join in? Is there a queue forming yet?

    Yes! Buffoon! Stone him!
    A bit of mild mockery perhaps?
    I'm not getting out of bed for anything less than angry villagers running around with torches and pitchforks.
    Were you around for Dave's tax return? ;)
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Yours is the perfect pie in the sky argument for Leave . Vote leave and EU lead will be magically turned into gold , water will become wine and if somehow this does not materialise we can blame Cameron or the Govt for not delivering .
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think somebody earlier said that it seems like migration to Europe had slowed dramatically...

    Sicily is flooded with 2,000 migrants EVERY DAY since the Balkans route shut

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3539484/High-five-Europe-patrol-migrant-boats-pick-refugee-dinghies-30-miles-Libya-bring-270-miles-Sicily-new-Lesbos.html

    It has slowed dramatically: there were 10,000 a day by sea alone in the middle of last year.
    If we can't trust the Germans to tell us the truth about migrant related events on New Year's Day, it might be a touch optimistic to expect accurate reporting about the number of immigrants landing as well ;)
    The biggest lesson I've learned from a 20 year career finance is: if you don't like what the numbers are telling you, your first though must not be "they must be wrong"
    It's not that if a client lied to you last time about the value of something, it's not inconceivable that he might lie to you about it the next time as well ? ;)
    Indigo. Come on. Do you believe there's a conspiracy between the Greek government, the UN and the EU? Really?
    On the basis of previous comments I would hazard a guess that the answer to that is Yes
  • Options
    Today, I got an advertising sheet from the 'stronger in' campaign. It looks pretty cheap - no illustrations, and no colour, just pure text, with a little grey shading.

    On one side, it has 6 pro-EU quotes, from Mark Carney, Richard Branson, Carolyn McCall, Hugh Orde, Karren Brady, and Frances O'Grady, the TIC general secretary.

    On the other side it has five pro-EU facts, with sources cited: 3 million jobs linked to EU exports (the treasury), lower prices in UK shops (the LSE), two hundred thousand UK businesses trading with the EU (HMRC), exit would cost the average family at least £850 a year (the LSE), and the UK gets £66 million of investment daily from EU countries, more than our membership feeds (Office of National Statistics.)

    All the facts are open to dispute, of course.

    Overall, this is a message I can't imagine exciting anyone - too drab. It's a dull appeal to expert wisdom.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Yours is the perfect pie in the sky argument for Leave . Vote leave and EU lead will be magically turned into gold , water will become wine and if somehow this does not materialise we can blame Cameron or the Govt for not delivering .
    What?
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited April 2016

    dr_spyn said:

    That relies on the big assumption that anywhere else would have him...
    https://twitter.com/smashmorePH/status/720647997705580544

    Paul O'Grady aka Lily Savage promised to emigrate if the Tories won at the 2015 GE. Last time I looked he was still here. Lefties are all mouth and no trousers.
  • Options
    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Does anyone know what has happened to the Labour moderates? They seem to have disappeared? They don't even seem to appear in the HoC. Is it too late for them?
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    Brilliant.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    All you chaps with your fixation on Europe seem to have missed the biggest and most hopeful story of the day - the proposed remuneration package of the CEO of BP has been voted down and included in those rejecting it are big institutional investors.

    Huzzah! I say and maybe this is the start of returning sanity to the corporate sector.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited April 2016

    Mr. Divvie, the move of powers is from the UK to the EU, but in the opposite direction regarding devolution within the UK. Also, there was a quite recent vote in Scotland.

    Regarding the EU, how are you planning to vote?

    Still not completely decided, but as with so much of life, it's definitely a lesser of two (or least of several) evils situation,. The greatest evil fmpov would be an rUK/England voting strongly to leave with Scotland being dragged along with them on a narrow leave vote. The thought of being in the perpetual embrace of the 'Britain once more a buccaneering, trading nation leading the Anglosphere' brigade makes me feel decidedly queasy.

    You can probably guess which way I'm drifting.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Not at all I just want a straight answer about what Leave would like to do if hey win. Not a lot to ask really.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    All mouth and trousers.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here). Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.
    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    I feel very uncomforable with power residing the UK Government, headed by Cameron, Mr Betting. He could not get the support of even 25% of the registered voters.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
  • Options

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Yours is the perfect pie in the sky argument for Leave . Vote leave and EU lead will be magically turned into gold , water will become wine and if somehow this does not materialise we can blame Cameron or the Govt for not delivering .
    I never made any promise of pie in the sky. I just explained how democracy and accountability work.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994

    Apropos of nothing much I went for a haircut and to do some light grocery shopping in my nearest town today.

    The barbers has been taken over by a new chap and I got the best haircut I have had for years, in fact I have never had such a good haircut in the UK. The last time I had such a treat was in the Oman. A real full works job; hair, eyebrows, ears and moustache (gone is my usual walrus, I now have the sort of clipped moustache that would have got an approving nod from my old RSM). Lots of work with an old fashioned razor and even the flaming ball banged against the ears (never seen that outside the ME). All done in silence and for £7 (plus a £3 tip that he tried to refuse). The barber? One Edrogan Tuyuz, a Turk recently settled in the UK.

    After that I went to Lidl, where a charming young lady with a very strong East European accent stopped me buying some bread products that were on the shelf because she had a new batch just coming out of the oven that would be fresher and nicer. I also bought sausages from Germany, cured meats from Italy and, of course, cheese from France. All at very reasonable prices. The efficient young lady at the checkout was from Latvia (I asked).

    From there to Waitrose for food for my cat (he loves their salmon flakes and will kill for a fresh roasted chicken). The jolly and helpful chap at the check-out was from South Africa.

    Finally, to a bar for a drinkie while I waited for the bus home. Owned by a Pole and the waitress was Greek. Friendly, impeccable service and acceptable booze (no Portuguese wine, though).

    All in a smallish town in darkest Sussex, the sort of place where Roger of this parish not long ago famously said on here that foreign voices are not heard without comment.

    I am still going to vote to leave the EU, mind, and I see no contradiction between that and my very pleasant experiences today.

    Agree entirely. I see no contradiction either.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.

    You don't think it's dawned on the left yet that the right wingers backing Brexit out want to remove those social protections? That is one of the reasons why voters in all the parties to the left of the Tories (Labour, Lb Dem, Green, SNP, PC) will eventually vote remain by large margins.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    PClipp said:

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here). Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.
    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    I feel very uncomforable with power residing the UK Government, headed by Cameron, Mr Betting. He could not get the support of even 25% of the registered voters.
    So instead power should lie in the EU? Remind me what the turnout for the EU election was?
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    Exactly and when the campaign gets going after the May elections I expect that Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, PC and the unions will be hammering that message home to their supporters.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    geoffw said:

    All mouth and trousers.

    You could be right. Apparently "all mouth and no trousers" is a corruption of "all mouth and trousers".
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited April 2016

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Yours is the perfect pie in the sky argument for Leave . Vote leave and EU lead will be magically turned into gold , water will become wine and if somehow this does not materialise we can blame Cameron or the Govt for not delivering .
    Vote leave because Mark Senile is duller and denser than lead.

    No, I can't see it catching on as a slogan.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2016

    Can someone explain to me why John Kasich is now trading at 11/1 for the Republican nomination on Betfair? Isn't a zero missing?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/26/after-the-latest-blow-up-david-herdson-says-now-is-the-time-to-back-401-kasich/

    My take on it is; the market believes there's only an 85% chance of trump/cruz, meaning 15% chance of someone else. Now Ryan's been pushed out, Kasich sucks up the overround.

    Personally, I'd put not-trump/cruz at 10% max, with Kasich making up 40-50% of that.

    So ~4%, or 25/1 would be my stab at guessing his true odds right now.

    The really crazy situation was a couple of weeks back when you could get cruz @ 3/1 and trump at evens - a 25% chance the GOP skips their first AND second place candidates and awards the nomination to someone else?

    I'd bet against that every time.

    It'll be trump or cruz.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Interesting in a way.

    With the polls looking somewhere around the 45-42 mark this highlights just how much business has lost contact with ordinary people. Whether that's as a result of the recession or the actions of big business is hard to say, but on those figures business leaders are off at atangent and don't appear to be able to do much to persuade their workers they are right.

    Only the FSB is anywhere near the current split reflected in polling.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    One of the more ridiculous claims made on here today. The idea that social and environmental protections would disappear because we left the EU is laughable - just like all your other claims.
  • Options
    PClipp said:

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here). Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.
    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    I feel very uncomforable with power residing the UK Government, headed by Cameron, Mr Betting. He could not get the support of even 25% of the registered voters.
    I recognise that is your view and you prefer to rely on those you can never vote for, deciding these things inside the machinations of the EU. Democracy just not your cup of tea.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2016
    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited April 2016
    Norm said:



    Paul O'Grady aka Lily Savage promised to emigrate if the Tories won at the 2015 GE. Last time I looked he was still here. Lefties are all mouth and no trousers.

    Tory peer (and - lol - start up czar) Michelle Mone stayed put after not getting her desired electoral outcome then left when she did get it.

    All fur coat and no knickers might be more appropriate in her case.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Vote Remain to keep the social and environmental protections!
    Okay dude.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371

    dr_spyn said:

    That relies on the big assumption that anywhere else would have him...
    Venezuela?
    Only to ransom...
    Venezuela couldn't pay us enough. They take him, they keep him.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Not at all I just want a straight answer about what Leave would like to do if hey win. Not a lot to ask really.
    What would REMAIN like to happen to the EU if they win? The only difference is that LEAVE means the UK voters can influence the UK strongly if they win - but REMAIN still means that the UK voter can't influence the EU if they win.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    One of the more ridiculous claims made on here today. The idea that social and environmental protections would disappear because we left the EU is laughable - just like all your other claims.
    Not all social and environmental protections, just the ones in EU law.

    Not much point in Leaving, then following the EUs decisions anyway. I see business feels the same.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    geoffw said:

    Vote Remain to keep the social and environmental protections!
    Okay dude.

    I shall put you down as a convert!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....

    Why in August? Are all the other doctors off to watch the Olympic Games?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    Norm said:



    Paul O'Grady aka Lily Savage promised to emigrate if the Tories won at the 2015 GE. Last time I looked he was still here. Lefties are all mouth and no trousers.

    Tory peer (and - lol - start up czar) Michelle Mone stayed put after not getting her desired electoral outcome then left when she did get it.

    All fur coat and no knickers might be more appropriate in her case.
    An undie manufacturer going commando? worst mistake since Gerald Ratner.
  • Options
    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    "How safe or risky do you think it would be for Britain to STAY IN the European Union?"

    By the way, red and green is a bad combination for graphs.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    taffys said:

    Norm said:



    Paul O'Grady aka Lily Savage promised to emigrate if the Tories won at the 2015 GE. Last time I looked he was still here. Lefties are all mouth and no trousers.

    Tory peer (and - lol - start up czar) Michelle Mone stayed put after not getting her desired electoral outcome then left when she did get it.

    All fur coat and no knickers might be more appropriate in her case.
    An undie manufacturer going commando? worst mistake since Gerald Ratner.
    why fronts?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    One of the more ridiculous claims made on here today. The idea that social and environmental protections would disappear because we left the EU is laughable - just like all your other claims.
    Not all social and environmental protections, just the ones in EU law.

    Not much point in Leaving, then following the EUs decisions anyway. I see business feels the same.
    But if we do leave, we could decide to go further than the EU in certain areas.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited April 2016

    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....

    You seem quite excited at the prospect of it all.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    OllyT said:

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    Exactly and when the campaign gets going after the May elections I expect that Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, PC and the unions will be hammering that message home to their supporters.
    More to the point, how many activists from those parties will be willing to get off their backsides and campaign for Remain? Not many.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GeoffM said:

    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....

    Why in August? Are all the other doctors off to watch the Olympic Games?
    That's when the new contracts hit.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994

    taffys said:

    taffys said:

    Indigo said:

    It is a little bizarre that the winning argument for the government is going to amount to them telling everyone that they are too incompetent to run the UK without the help of the EU, and for Labour it is that they are too incapable of getting elected to pass the same environmental, social and industrial laws as are passed by the EU, and for the Lib Dems is going to be, we don't actually need a UK government at all, we should all be run by the EU. Funny old world.

    If we are going to pass all those laws and regulations, then surely it makes sense to stay in?

    Leaveing only makes sense on this issue if the plan is to repeal some or all of the regulations, something that may make a single market an impossibility.

    Bearing in mind the strong links between the right wing and the Leave campaign we can be fairly certain there is no intention to maintain the EUs social protections.
    Well then the British people can elect a government that will restore those social protections. Or not. It'll be up to us.
    They can maintain those rights by voting Remain. Leave only makes sense if they want their protections removed.
    But they can elect another government that will restore them in the future. Nothing is cast in stone.

    You really aren't very good at understanding this 'democracy' thing, are you?
    The referendum is a democratic act. A vote for Remain is a vote to keep the social and environmental protections of the EU.
    One of the more ridiculous claims made on here today. The idea that social and environmental protections would disappear because we left the EU is laughable - just like all your other claims.
    Not all social and environmental protections, just the ones in EU law.

    Not much point in Leaving, then following the EUs decisions anyway. I see business feels the same.
    We keep the ones we as a country feel are of value and modify or remove the ones that we don't. It is called democracy. Something I know you have a lot of trouble with as a concept.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Evening all :)

    Like some others, I'm concerned at the prospect of a Conservative Government, post-LEAVE, tearing up protection for workers but that's both the problem and the opportunity democracy provides.

    It provides the opportunity for a future non-Conservative Government to put forward something better, something more relevant and something stronger as law. It would be a huge policy opportunity for non-Conservative parties in Britain after a LEAVE vote.

    It's not unreasonable for me or any other voter to ask LEAVE what aspects (if any) of EU legislation they would keep. It seems foolish to assume all EU law is by definition bad law or are there areas where EU law is considered too weak or doesn't go far enough ?

    What about taxation - VAT only exists because of the EU. Would LEAVE want to abolish VAT, change the rate (we wouldn't have to harmonise), change those items which are reduced or zero-rated ?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2016
    Nate Silver assesses that the GOP race will come down to the detailed results of the California primary :

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Alistair said:

    GeoffM said:

    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....

    Why in August? Are all the other doctors off to watch the Olympic Games?
    That's when the new contracts hit.
    Ah, that makes more sense than them all being off earning extra cash doping athletes.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited April 2016
    John Ashmore ✔‎@smashmorePH
    Possible boost for Leave as Ken Livingstone says he “would personally start thinking about emigrating" in the event of #Brexit
    5:20 PM - 14 Apr 2016

    Which reminds me.... Has anyone one ever seen Malcolmg and Ken in the same room together? :wink:
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    weejonnie said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Not at all I just want a straight answer about what Leave would like to do if hey win. Not a lot to ask really.
    What would REMAIN like to happen to the EU if they win? The only difference is that LEAVE means the UK voters can influence the UK strongly if they win - but REMAIN still means that the UK voter can't influence the EU if they win.
    The lengths that Leavers are going to to avoid answering a simple question (Stop immigration or join EFTA/EEA) is starting to get comical. You will have tied yourself in so many knots by June you won't know which way is up.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Moses_ said:

    John Ashmore ✔‎@smashmorePH
    Possible boost for Leave as Ken Livingstone says he “would personally start thinking about emigrating" in the event of #Brexit
    5:20 PM - 14 Apr 2016

    Which reminds me.... Has anyone one ever seen Malcolmg and Ken in the same room together? :wink:

    Leave have found an attack line which is making me waver.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    JackW said:

    Nate Silver assesses that the GOP race will come down to the detailed results of the California primary :

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/

    That's rather stating the obvious, and has been the anticipated outcome for a week or so now.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    All you chaps with your fixation on Europe seem to have missed the biggest and most hopeful story of the day - the proposed remuneration package of the CEO of BP has been voted down and included in those rejecting it are big institutional investors.

    Huzzah! I say and maybe this is the start of returning sanity to the corporate sector.

    It's interesting but no more than that and would best be viewed in the context of BP performance over that last 24 months. You might compare BP to the compensation packages awarded to the senior management of the US majors and the (implicit and explicit) shareholder approval for the latter. The problem that BP faces is if they are not paying bonuses and their competitors are then real talent will walk. You may or may not be indifferent to this but unless we impose a global compensation approach (or perhaps a pan-EU one) then, to quote, sanity will not return.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    OllyT said:

    weejonnie said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    @runnymede
    'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
    Exactly, an excellent holding position.

    Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).
    Other than that it's all systems go.
    In case you have not noticed, the head of Govt, the PM, is not a LEAVER so nothing can be promised from LEAVE on this aspect until after June 23rd.

    If Leave can't promise anything they could at least tell us what they actually want. Are we going to put a stop to immigration or are we going to sign up to EFFTA/EEA? You can't dither on the question for the next 2 months.
    They return to our Gov the right to decide these things. We then vote for the Govt or not.
    You seem uncomfortable with the concept of power residing in the UK Govt.
    Not at all I just want a straight answer about what Leave would like to do if hey win. Not a lot to ask really.
    What would REMAIN like to happen to the EU if they win? The only difference is that LEAVE means the UK voters can influence the UK strongly if they win - but REMAIN still means that the UK voter can't influence the EU if they win.
    The lengths that Leavers are going to to avoid answering a simple question (Stop immigration or join EFTA/EEA) is starting to get comical. You will have tied yourself in so many knots by June you won't know which way is up.
    My first preference is leave altogether but if we remain in the EEA that will be fine. Whatever happens, if net immigration continues at the current levels to 2020 then the Tories are ******.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    edited April 2016
    Tim_B said:

    JackW said:

    Nate Silver assesses that the GOP race will come down to the detailed results of the California primary :

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/

    That's rather stating the obvious, and has been the anticipated outcome for a week or so now.
    Sam Wang of Princeton Electoral Consortium has Trump odds on to get to 1237. Nate seems to have him odds against.

    Quite an important difference of opinion :D
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    JackW said:

    Nate Silver assesses that the GOP race will come down to the detailed results of the California primary :

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/

    Thanks for the link. V. interesting and detailed.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Moses_ said:

    John Ashmore ✔‎@smashmorePH
    Possible boost for Leave as Ken Livingstone says he “would personally start thinking about emigrating" in the event of #Brexit
    5:20 PM - 14 Apr 2016

    Which reminds me.... Has anyone one ever seen Malcolmg and Ken in the same room together? :wink:

    Leave have found an attack line which is making me waver.
    Why is it that these "I will leave the country" threats are only made by arseholes the rest of us would be happy to lose?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894
    watford30 said:

    A bit of interesting news from Lancashire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-36042951

    6/14 posts unfilled and unfillable. It will be coming to a hospital near you in August....

    You seem quite excited at the prospect of it all.
    Wheras you are in denial.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    matt said:

    All you chaps with your fixation on Europe seem to have missed the biggest and most hopeful story of the day - the proposed remuneration package of the CEO of BP has been voted down and included in those rejecting it are big institutional investors.

    Huzzah! I say and maybe this is the start of returning sanity to the corporate sector.

    It's interesting but no more than that and would best be viewed in the context of BP performance over that last 24 months. You might compare BP to the compensation packages awarded to the senior management of the US majors and the (implicit and explicit) shareholder approval for the latter. The problem that BP faces is if they are not paying bonuses and their competitors are then real talent will walk. You may or may not be indifferent to this but unless we impose a global compensation approach (or perhaps a pan-EU one) then, to quote, sanity will not return.
    just bollocks.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Like some others, I'm concerned at the prospect of a Conservative Government, post-LEAVE, tearing up protection for workers but that's both the problem and the opportunity democracy provides.

    It provides the opportunity for a future non-Conservative Government to put forward something better, something more relevant and something stronger as law. It would be a huge policy opportunity for non-Conservative parties in Britain after a LEAVE vote.

    It's not unreasonable for me or any other voter to ask LEAVE what aspects (if any) of EU legislation they would keep. It seems foolish to assume all EU law is by definition bad law or are there areas where EU law is considered too weak or doesn't go far enough ?

    What about taxation - VAT only exists because of the EU. Would LEAVE want to abolish VAT, change the rate (we wouldn't have to harmonise), change those items which are reduced or zero-rated ?

    I think it is unfair to claim that VAT only exists because of the EU. Prior to the UK joining the EU we had luxury taxes on non essentials and I would expect that we would return to a sales tax at a similar level to that we currently have. The main difference in my mind would be that we would have more freedom to choose what we imposed that tax on. So we could take it off things like home energy, sanitary products and brown field development and put it on things like caravans and pasties.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Like some others, I'm concerned at the prospect of a Conservative Government, post-LEAVE, tearing up protection for workers but that's both the problem and the opportunity democracy provides.

    It provides the opportunity for a future non-Conservative Government to put forward something better, something more relevant and something stronger as law. It would be a huge policy opportunity for non-Conservative parties in Britain after a LEAVE vote.

    It's not unreasonable for me or any other voter to ask LEAVE what aspects (if any) of EU legislation they would keep. It seems foolish to assume all EU law is by definition bad law or are there areas where EU law is considered too weak or doesn't go far enough ?

    What about taxation - VAT only exists because of the EU. Would LEAVE want to abolish VAT, change the rate (we wouldn't have to harmonise), change those items which are reduced or zero-rated ?

    I think it is unfair to claim that VAT only exists because of the EU. Prior to the UK joining the EU we had luxury taxes on non essentials and I would expect that we would return to a sales tax at a similar level to that we currently have. The main difference in my mind would be that we would have more freedom to choose what we imposed that tax on. So we could take it off things like home energy, sanitary products and brown field development and put it on things like caravans and pasties.
    I think that's absolutely right.

    Longer-term - and I know this is slightly controversial - I would abolish VAT and income tax and move to consumption tax with a large tax-free element to make it non-regressive. This is something we could do outside the EU. Albeit something that would be politically a complete non-starter.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534

    Moses_ said:

    John Ashmore ✔‎@smashmorePH
    Possible boost for Leave as Ken Livingstone says he “would personally start thinking about emigrating" in the event of #Brexit
    5:20 PM - 14 Apr 2016

    Which reminds me.... Has anyone one ever seen Malcolmg and Ken in the same room together? :wink:

    Leave have found an attack line which is making me waver.
    Come and join us, Alastair!

    No-one is ever more welcome than a man turned good :-)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894

    News UK News Hospitals
    A&E crisis explodes under Jeremy Hunt as waiting times reach worst level since records began
    17:19, 14 APR 2016 UPDATED 17:20, 14 APR 2016
    BY JANE KIRBY , DAN BLOOM
    A&E figures shame Jeremy Hunt
    The NHS crisis under Jeremy Hunt is laid bare today after A&E waiting times reached their worst level since records began.

    Latest figures show 12.2% of patients waited longer than four hours in February - the highest monthly figure on record. In April 2010 was just 1.7%
This discussion has been closed.