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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win
In the 2010-2015 period I repeatedly suggested that a good guide to the general election outcome was YouGov’s “who is responsible for the cuts” tracker. Throughout the entire five year period Labourwas blamed more than others and so it turned out to be.
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My prediction is the voters as a whole won't vote to make themselves worse off.
Edited extra bit: it is now.
vs
"Do you really want to hurt me" {Boy George}
I am not sure risky is deterrent it used to be. The country is full of people going into business for themselves, not exactly a risk free strategy, but often worth it for the rewards. With the amount of squeakers I have had in the last decade BrExit is a complete shruggathon
Labour has been hit by a fresh entryism row after it emerged some of the party's registered supporters have given their backing to Green party candidates for next month's council elections.
The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.
On the EU/EFTA option the Bruges Group ran a poll a couple of years ago that found massive support for this versus the EU. So I don't think we should assume it's a non-starter.
http://www.brugesgroup.com/media-centre/comment/37-comment-and-analysis/591-71-said-they-would-prefer-britain-to-leave-the-eu-and-join-efta
On immigration, Corbyn said he did not think "too many people" had come to the UK from the rest of the EU...
This could end up seriously damaging the Labour party as well as winning the referendum. Counter productive in Islington though!
This one simply reinforces that 'authority' wants you to vote 'in', regardless of their supposed political differences. I don't think that's a particularly good look right now - anyone who is going to embrace authority messages and vote Remain as a result is surely already factored in. For everyone else, there's something to dislike and distrust in this photograph.
Resorting to absurd scare stories and sticking their thumb on every scale - the 9m propaganda leaflet is just another example. This is desperate measure tactics you save to the last possible moment. Not 100-80 days out.
Half the public think it was big mistake, including Remain supporters.
I honestly can't see where Remain goes from here. We've Obama next week then what?
Every PR bone in my body is shouting Noooo.
I don't believe there is any meaningful likelihood the EU will try and force us to join the Euro, because they have enough problems of their own. If you are trying to save a troubled institution, where the Greeks (and others) are liable to fall out at any time, why would you want someone inside the tent who would be opposed to everything you wanted to do, and who could skew QMV votes against you?
The danger would occur only if the Euro was doing incredibly well, and all the Euro economies booming.
If you think that's a realistic chance, let me know.
How safe or risky do you think it would be for Britain to stay in the European Union?
For me there is no riskless route. I would vote risky to both questions.
'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
Exactly, an excellent holding position.
Things I've read here recently strike me as strange: someone claiming that the interests of his employer would influence how he would vote, another ruminating about London house prices. This seems strange to me. Given the likelihood that your vote will decide this referendum is infinitesimal (not worth your while bothering to turn up on these grounds) why would you vote according to your perceived self-interest rather than some higher principle? Don't you have to carry having taken the former course on your conscience for the rest of time in the almost certain knowledge that having sought self-interest was utterly pointless? Isn't it better psychologically to vote for what you think is right?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/04/gove-tops-our-future-tory-leader-survey-for-the-first-time.html
You could not subsume the CTA into Schengen without the unanimous agreement of all the CTA countries, and the EU countries. It is also explicitly referenced in EU Treaties, and could not be QMV-ed.
'On immigration, Corbyn said he did not think "too many people" had come to the UK from the rest of the EU...'
Leave can't believe their luck.
Good point.
Just to expand on it how about a question such as
Do you think any benefits from LEAVING the EU justify any risk of doing so?
British people tend to say David Cameron has not really done anything wrong in terms of his tax and investments – but are strongly in favour of making politicians publish their tax returns
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/nothing-dodgy-about-dave/
The Eurozone has to federalise of die. It will start to vote as a block to gain what it in its interest. What is in its interest might well not be in our interest. We will inevitably become marginalised and largely ignored. I know they promised (with crossed fingers) not to caucus against non-Eurozone members, but does anyone seriously believe that, even if not done deliberately they will have common problems, and a relatively small number of solutions. We are likely to be a casualty of expedience as much as anything else.
Project yourself forward five years, the Eurozone is largely federalised in economic terms, maybe they cobbled together something to do in terms of a transfer union. They might start not all turning up to EU finance meetings, Wolfgang Schäuble would sit down and announce that he is holding a proxy vote for France, Italy and Spain. There is no chance that we can oppose what they want in QMV, they will vote in what they need to survive, if that damages our business, or other vital interests in passing... c'est la vie.
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/europa/das-vertrauen-schwindet/story/16173896
Other than that it's all systems go.
On Osborne and Corbyn, well, I know he's unpopular and I don't like him either, but honestly he's not that bad. Osborne that is. He's crap, I doubt he'd make a great PM, but when the other option were Corbyn? Seriously?
Economic Competence versus The Terrorist Sympathiser.
Just imagine the fun Michael Fallon will have during the 2020 general election campaign.
There just isn't the time to explain concepts like these to an apathetic electorate. Whatever voters tell pollsters now they will not vote for something they don't trust and understand. The best they can hope for is abstentions
A basic tenet of advertising is you can't change what people believe. That takes too long. You have to persuade them that what you are selling is something they trust. As an experiment try to persuade people the EU is lightly regulated. Then try to persuade them that though intrusive the regulation has saved XXXXX lives. The second can be done the first can't
If they are obliged to get into 'EEA's and EFTA's' then they're in trouble and it's why Cummings is hoping to do the opposite and persuade people that the unknown is on the other side. But like I said such a counterintuitive idea that's going to be a very difficult sell.
Indeed, and with little concrete evidence, few DKs will be tempted to make that leap of faith.
Yes won every age group except 55 year old onwards
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
Using your arguments, if they are going to marginalise us if we are inside the EU then they sure as hell will marginalise us if we are outside. Now people such as @DavidL and I'm sure others on here will say: yes that's exactly it, we are marginalised but we don't get all the cr*p straight banana directives also. And that is a reasonable point. But there are certain toys eg. EUR-denominated clearing that would be taken away instantly.
But that is where the deal comes into play*. It insulates us from ECU and as you say formalises EZ/non-EZ non-discrimination. So it is in a sense the best of all worlds. No Euro, no discrimination, no ECU, no banking union, and yet we retain, as an EU member, vital benefits and safeguards from the single market (eg. EUR clearing, to pick an example more recent than 1994).
*I have always said that if you believe, as you seem to, that the other 27 heads of state were lying through their teeth and will renege or the ECJ will strike down the agreement, then of course you must vote Leave.
runnymede
'The best way to neutralise Project Lie is the EFTA/EEA option, even if only as a first step.'
Exactly, an excellent holding position.
'Except it doesn't seem to be on offer. Nor is it a credible position (according to a Leaver on here).'
I don't think on leaving the EU whether or not we temporarily join EFTA will be decided by a 'Leave' voter on PB ,but as they say whatever floats your boat.
You'd have to have a heart of stone, not to laugh.
Another thing to think about is how much people have to love. In the Scottish referendum, the SNP was able to mobilise poor voters in Glasgow to vote for independence as they didn't have anything to lose
The ECJ is a different matter, I dont ascribe malice there either, but it is explicitly federalist, and explicitly only considers the Treaties, and there isn't a new Treaty and probably wont be one, so the first time anything in the agreement comes before it, it will be put to one side, they have form, they struck down the Council of Europe deal with the Danes over citizenship.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/the_79_times_that_the_ecj_has_ignored_the_danish_renegotiation
But to your point, we now have an official Leave organisation - VLTC. On p.32 of their document it says they want to take control of immigration. As has been mentioned on here this morning by others as well as me, I think therefore it is reasonable, given the debate about EEA/EFTA generally (and no doubt increasingly as June 23rd approaches), to clarify their position on it. As also mentioned previously, it is analagous to the SNP determinedly ignoring the possibility that their fiscal projections, which accompanied their desire for independence, might be at risk.
I've seen leavers again and again talk about how there are risks in staying and it's not the status quo. It clearly motivates many on the vote leave side but the remainers just don't get it. The analogy I've used before is with my marriage. If we stay together our relationship won't be exactly the same in 20 years, but it's fundamentally a no change position compared to any alternatives. And hopefully it'll be a better relationships. I think this point illustrates the gulf between the committed on both sides.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36043808
£15m upfront and then £2.5 million a year !! Heating, lighting, turnstyle operators and cleaners included in the price.
Cost to turn into a Prem stadium was £272 Mn.
Time for lunch, perhaps a croque monsieur. While I still can.
We're in the phoney war stage, the EURef campaign kicks off properly on May the 9th.
Dave will be saying 'Brexit is a risk to your pensions' post 9th of May.
One thing Leave seem to forget is most of the Pro EU parties are concentrating their firepower on the local council, devolved and London Mayoral elections.
Come May the 9th, they will have but one focus, the EU referendum.
'In one sense I would find it vaguely amusing for us to end up in EEA/EFTA following a Leave vote'
Here you go again,posters have been talking about EFTA as a temporary position and not repeat not where we end up.
I would assume that this holding position would also be welcomed by the EU as it would cause the least disruption to trade.
http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/01/RHUL-slides.pdf
http://centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Scottish Referendum Study 27 March 2015.pdf
I presume the bump in 20-24 is due to RUK Students. There is some perception of risk anaylse in the first set of slides but not broekn down by age group.
I still don't know what I'll do regarding posting on here post 9th May - I will probably mainly be in a bad mood for the following seven weeks, with my blood pressure at bursting daily.
On the plus side, the exercise in leafleting and talking to voters might be good for me.
I don't regret a moment of campaigning last year.
Just brace yourself, you'll have a wonderful canvassing session, you're convinced you're going to win, the voters are moving towards you, then you check your phone, and there's a poll out showing your opponents winning and the big Mo is with them.
I know you hope he will save the day for you but I wouldn't count on it.
I'm going to be doing most Saturday mornings from now on - starting this Sat at 9am.
-You won't get another chance to vote on this for 3 decades at least (tick, I believe)
-Christ knows what they will bring in if we give the EU a yes - it's not like our politicians will stand up for us (tick, I believe)
-Especially if the vote isn't close, the EU will run bloody riot (tick, I believe)
-THINK TWICE before you make this commitment (tick - I'm going to have a family barbeque instead and feel comfortable I've done the right thing)
Simples.
Only positive thing on that is that the various broadsides in March and April don't appear to have had any net impact yet on voting *intention* but they have, anecdotally, scared a few regular posters on here as well as a few of my friends.
As, of course, it's designed to..
If you're a natural Leaver, don't let yourself be played by it: straighten up, batten down the hatches and face up.
Don't let the heavy incoming fire force you to retreat and abandon your position.