politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LEAVE needs to neutralise PROJECT FEAR if it is to win

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, we won't get Project Fear we'll get Project Terror.

Only positive thing on that is that the various broadsides in March and April don't appear to have had any net impact yet on voting *intention* but they have, anecdotally, scared a few regular posters on here as well as a few of my friends.

As, of course, it's designed to..

If you're a natural Leaver, don't let yourself be played by it: straighten up, batten down the hatches and face up.

Don't let the heavy incoming fire force you to retreat and abandon your position.

If we vote Remain, the EU will force us to introduce a directive limiting the number of metaphors in use at any one time.

I'm in.

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Cameron, Paddy Ashdown and Neil Kinnock man a 'Vote Remain' phonebank together
https://twitter.com/montie/status/720550604515487744

That photo is toxic to Cameron.

Whose idea was that?

At the very least he shouldn't have been sitting next to them in a row.

Not toxic at all. Quite the reverse. It tells me all the leading parties support Remain. If that spooks you wait until the 48 sheets come out with Redwood-Gove-IDS-Farage-Johnson-Galloway.

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

Yes, it's a curious phenomenon. A few years ago in the right-wing press everything, and I mean literally everything - from the sacking of Owen Paterson to Grant Shapps's bingo tweet - was proclaimed as being absolutely brilliantly wondrous news for UKIP. (Invariably accompanying would be a photo of Nigel Farage grinning like a hippo.) Who thinks like this? Why?

Mostly those prone to caricaturing the positions of their opponents, I'd say.

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Did we have these statistics for Scottish Independence? Given that the position of the young and old were reversed in that debate it would be interesting to see the perception of risk that they had.

We do. Well we have a Lord Ashcroft poll post Indyref.

Yes won every age group except 55 year old onwards

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf

There's also the longer term Scottish Referendum Study http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/
http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/01/RHUL-slides.pdf
http://centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Scottish Referendum Study 27 March 2015.pdf



I presume the bump in 20-24 is due to RUK Students. There is some perception of risk anaylse in the first set of slides but not broekn down by age group.

Cheers for that, I might do a thread on that.

Threads are improved with a big picture of a spider crawling over someone's face.

Good news is no news:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT

"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, we won't get Project Fear we'll get Project Terror.

Only positive thing on that is that the various broadsides in March and April don't appear to have had any net impact yet on voting *intention* but they have, anecdotally, scared a few regular posters on here as well as a few of my friends.

As, of course, it's designed to..

If you're a natural Leaver, don't let yourself be played by it: straighten up, batten down the hatches and face up.

Don't let the heavy incoming fire force you to retreat and abandon your position.

Don't know why you're campaigning on here. Hopeful of persuading Richard Nabavi? Engaging in the battle for TSE's soul?

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Did we have these statistics for Scottish Independence? Given that the position of the young and old were reversed in that debate it would be interesting to see the perception of risk that they had.

We do. Well we have a Lord Ashcroft poll post Indyref.

Yes won every age group except 55 year old onwards

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf

Yougov had 51% of 16 to 24s voting No
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13181487.Full_indyref_survey_reveals_young_voters_voted_No_and_only_25_39_age_group_said_Yes/

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, we won't get Project Fear we'll get Project Terror.

Only positive thing on that is that the various broadsides in March and April don't appear to have had any net impact yet on voting *intention* but they have, anecdotally, scared a few regular posters on here as well as a few of my friends.

As, of course, it's designed to..

If you're a natural Leaver, don't let yourself be played by it: straighten up, batten down the hatches and face up.

Don't let the heavy incoming fire force you to retreat and abandon your position.

Hoe long before Project fear/ Dave deploy tanks to Heathrow like Tony did just before the Iraq invasion?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1422243/Blair-sent-in-tanks-after-chilling-threat.html

@Patrick

"I've gone right off Dave and think he's a slimy little &*^%$£! "

Luke 15:7, shame it took you so long though.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Wow - West Ham have got use of the Olympic Stadium incredibly cheaply.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36043808

£15m upfront and then £2.5 million a year !! Heating, lighting, turnstyle operators and cleaners included in the price.

Cost to turn into a Prem stadium was £272 Mn.

No doubt they got it cheap, the London Development people's other options were even worse.

I still wished they'd gone for Emirates Overspill Plan, with Arsenal games being shown on big screens to 100,000s of happy fans.

How likely is it that Corbyn's new more full-on approach to Remain could swing some wavering Tories to Leave? Particularly championing workers rights/socialist case for the EU etc? He'll be campaigning on aspects that enthuse Labour voters but likely repel Tory ones I imagine - already not enthused by the EU.

(Hello all, by the way)

Airport sniffer dogs find cheese and sausages – but fail to spot drugs

Report into Manchester airport security reveals detector dogs found no heroin or cocaine in six months to June 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/14/airport-sniffer-dogs-manchester-cheese-and-sausages-not-drugs?CMP=share_btn_tw

Perhaps the leave campaign should hijack Cameron and Corbyn support by sending out leaflets with their photos and use their anti EU quotes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Airport sniffer dogs find cheese and sausages – but fail to spot drugs

Report into Manchester airport security reveals detector dogs found no heroin or cocaine in six months to June 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/14/airport-sniffer-dogs-manchester-cheese-and-sausages-not-drugs?CMP=share_btn_tw

They need to employ Brian from Family Guy...

Arron Banks won't seek a judicial review

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

"good for the cause"?

You sound a bit like those of both parties (most often and recently Lab) who seem as though they want bad economic news for the country as that will further their particular agenda.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Wow - West Ham have got use of the Olympic Stadium incredibly cheaply.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36043808

£15m upfront and then £2.5 million a year !! Heating, lighting, turnstyle operators and cleaners included in the price.

Cost to turn into a Prem stadium was £272 Mn.

No doubt they got it cheap, the London Development people's other options were even worse.

Not least the Spurs bid which involved going back on the promise made to the IOC that the stadium would remain usable as an athletics venue after the Olympics. Spurs wanted to basically trash it as an athletics venue completely.

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good news is no news:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT

"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."

I don't know if Leave should be happy about that or not. Surely it's destroyed their trump card.

I agree that could be crucially good news for Cameron. There were two black swans which must have spooked him - migration and terror. One has apparently croaked.

The third is economic. Extreme measures in monetary policy are maintaining the illusion that Europe's economy is actually alive.

If some event turned off the life support machine, it would rip a huge hole in remain's 'stability' argument.

Hmmm: it's worth remembering that both us and the UK were far more extreme in our use of QE than the EU has been. To put in context, QE as a proportion of GDP is:

60% Japan
35% USA
25% UK
18% Eurozone

Printing money is one thing, but negative interest rates are surely quite another. For me they are a very dangerous gamble.

PLus evidence Europe is responding to the medicine? Hmmn.

Again, the Eurozone is less extreme than- for example- the Swiss or the Swedes

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good news is no news:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT

"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."

I don't know if Leave should be happy about that or not. Surely it's destroyed their trump card.

I agree that could be crucially good news for Cameron. There were two black swans which must have spooked him - migration and terror. One has apparently croaked.

No. Crisis in all its forms favours the status quo. 'No time for change'. It's when people feel more secure that they have the confidence to vote against the status quo.

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Good news is no news:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d4d4966-019b-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45nm3NugT

"Almost as suddenly as it began, the million-strong migration to Europe has become a trickle. There are now more Nato seamen patrolling Aegean Islands than migrants making the daily crossing from Turkey to Greece. An inflow of a several thousand a day has fallen to barely a hundred."

I don't know if Leave should be happy about that or not. Surely it's destroyed their trump card.

I agree that could be crucially good news for Cameron. There were two black swans which must have spooked him - migration and terror. One has apparently croaked.

The third is economic. Extreme measures in monetary policy are maintaining the illusion that Europe's economy is actually alive.

If some event turned off the life support machine, it would rip a huge hole in remain's 'stability' argument.

Hmmm: it's worth remembering that both us and the UK were far more extreme in our use of QE than the EU has been. To put in context, QE as a proportion of GDP is:

60% Japan
35% USA
25% UK
18% Eurozone

Printing money is one thing, but negative interest rates are surely quite another. For me they are a very dangerous gamble.

PLus evidence Europe is responding to the medicine? Hmmn.

The figures for growth across europe are pretty positive, Greece being the only one forcast to shrink, and even that is borderline.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115&plugin=1

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Arron Banks won't seek a judicial review

Smart decision. It would have been quixotic to prolong the Leave divisions.

I like his bluster

I have spent a lot of time and so much money, alongside many others, over the past few months and years making sure this referendum happened, and more than anything we wanted to make sure it happened fairly. We have raised well over £9 million and reached millions of people around this country.

“What is clear now is that if we were to pursue a judicial review, according to legal experts, we would win. But this is a time to take a step back from the matter, and after consulting with leading campaigners on this issue, including UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage – we have decided to show the public how this process was stitched up, but not to pursue the judicial review any further.

http://order-order.com/2016/04/14/arron-banks-wont-seek-judicial-review/

Miss Cyclefree, yes, the same Germany that did its best to hide a thousand or so reported sexual assaults for political reasons.

A moderate (6.2 -> 6.4) earthquake has hit Japan.

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

OOPS

4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illegal-sea-crossings.html

The migrants have switched routes.

Apropos of nothing much I went for a haircut and to do some light grocery shopping in my nearest town today.

The barbers has been taken over by a new chap and I got the best haircut I have had for years, in fact I have never had such a good haircut in the UK. The last time I had such a treat was in the Oman. A real full works job; hair, eyebrows, ears and moustache (gone is my usual walrus, I now have the sort of clipped moustache that would have got an approving nod from my old RSM). Lots of work with an old fashioned razor and even the flaming ball banged against the ears (never seen that outside the ME). All done in silence and for £7 (plus a £3 tip that he tried to refuse). The barber? One Edrogan Tuyuz, a Turk recently settled in the UK.

After that I went to Lidl, where a charming young lady with a very strong East European accent stopped me buying some bread products that were on the shelf because she had a new batch just coming out of the oven that would be fresher and nicer. I also bought sausages from Germany, cured meats from Italy and, of course, cheese from France. All at very reasonable prices. The efficient young lady at the checkout was from Latvia (I asked).

From there to Waitrose for food for my cat (he loves their salmon flakes and will kill for a fresh roasted chicken). The jolly and helpful chap at the check-out was from South Africa.

Finally, to a bar for a drinkie while I waited for the bus home. Owned by a Pole and the waitress was Greek. Friendly, impeccable service and acceptable booze (no Portuguese wine, though).

All in a smallish town in darkest Sussex, the sort of place where Roger of this parish not long ago famously said on here that foreign voices are not heard without comment.

I am still going to vote to leave the EU, mind, and I see no contradiction between that and my very pleasant experiences today.

Polruan said:

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, we won't get Project Fear we'll get Project Terror.

Only positive thing on that is that the various broadsides in March and April don't appear to have had any net impact yet on voting *intention* but they have, anecdotally, scared a few regular posters on here as well as a few of my friends.

As, of course, it's designed to..

If you're a natural Leaver, don't let yourself be played by it: straighten up, batten down the hatches and face up.

Don't let the heavy incoming fire force you to retreat and abandon your position.

If we vote Remain, the EU will force us to introduce a directive limiting the number of metaphors in use at any one time.

I'm in.

Genuinely funny!

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

"good for the cause"?

You sound a bit like those of both parties (most often and recently Lab) who seem as though they want bad economic news for the country as that will further their particular agenda.

Robert's only 'agenda' is to regain sovereignty and self-governance for our nation and our people.

Unlike yours.

Pro_Rata said:

Paristonda said:

How likely is it that Corbyn's new more full-on approach to Remain could swing some wavering Tories to Leave? Particularly championing workers rights/socialist case for the EU etc? He'll be campaigning on aspects that enthuse Labour voters but likely repel Tory ones I imagine - already not enthused by the EU.

(Hello all, by the way)

Welcome. It would have been pretty extraordinary had Corbyn not made a set piece speech on the EU referendum at some stage. Whether that constitutes a full-on approach beyond one day's news cycle remains to be seen.

As a centrist, though not happy with everything, one thing I'm pretty relaxed about is that employment rights, business regulation and free trade all form legitimate parts of what the EU was set up to do, so if Corbyn wants to talk up one aspect and Cameron another, it's all good.

True, but it's probably in his own interests to deny ammo for a coup of labour rebels by putting in a strong obvious showing for Remain, so I'd guess he will go all-in after the local elections.

I wonder if more generally though that parallel 'left wing' and 'right wing' cases to stay in the EU can end up hurting each other, with confused overall messages. Better Together in sindyref was 1 single campaign that dominated the No narrative, so a consistent message. BSE seem less important at the moment than the respective party campaigns who won't share platforms.

Miss Cyclefree, that said, on the prior thread Mr. 1000 said there's apparently a German law which makes it illegal to insult foreign heads of state. Which is crazy.

Mr. Tonda, welcome to pb.com.

Mr. 1000, some say they've hired enormo-haddock to patrol the seas...

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Public verdict on tax furore: Dave not so dodgy

British people tend to say David Cameron has not really done anything wrong in terms of his tax and investments – but are strongly in favour of making politicians publish their tax returns

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/nothing-dodgy-about-dave/

Amazing to think that this forum was awash with frothing about Dave's resignation only a week ago. (Of course, we've heard such frothing on 10,000 previous occasions.) I'm beginning to think that Dave is politically invincible.

His ratings are in freefall.

Currently he's preferred to Corbyn (!) as PM by 32/25%. At the end of last year, it was 49/23%.

rcs1000 said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

OOPS

4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illemore Libygal-sea-crossings.html

The migrants have switched routes.

Ooh, Europe becomes more Libyan by the day - although onle (RCS) at the rate of 750,000 a year (and the mix may include West Africans)..

The really fascinating bit is how Spain - despite having the shortest sea (or, indeed, land) distance to Africa - has only received about 400 migrants this year. It'd be interesting to know how they've managed to keep the numbers down.

Spain had an influx of boat people a few years ago, from West Africa. They made a point of returning them to their countries of origin, and provided the relevant governments with funding to facilitate this.

LewisDuckworth said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

A very salient point. As Carlotta said the other day it's the lack of clarity that makes it seem risky. The problem is that if clarity is a group of letters (EEA/EFTA) then the fear will become real.

There just isn't the time to explain concepts like these to an apathetic electorate. Whatever voters tell pollsters now they will not vote for something they don't trust and understand. The best they can hope for is abstentions

A basic tenet of advertising is you can't change what people believe. That takes too long. You have to persuade them that what you are selling is something they trust. As an experiment try to persuade people the EU is lightly regulated. Then try to persuade them that though intrusive the regulation has saved XXXXX lives. The second can be done the first can't

If they are obliged to get into 'EEA's and EFTA's' then they're in trouble and it's why Cummings is hoping to do the opposite and persuade people that the unknown is on the other side. But like I said such a counterintuitive idea that's going to be a very difficult sell.

I think that you are right. People need to be onside that euro-regulations are of benefit, whether the EWTD, part time workers rights, environmental regulation for clean beaches etc. That is before we get to the more complex discussions about how standardised regulations are part and parcel of the extension of the single market into services.

And yet, for all the "power" of Project Fear, and all the "incoherence" of LEAVE, it is LEAVE who have the momentum, and the overall polling shows an absolute dead heat.


http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

50 LEAVE v 50 REMAIN is, I am damn sure, not where Cameron expected to be 2 months before the vote. He wouldn't have called this referendum if he'd honestly expected it to be this close.

The polls haven't noticeably budged in the last month, nor have the betting markets not even Jacks ARSE.

Momentum? What momentum?

And thats for those who believe in the polls.

Also see here:

https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/719492680250744833

How did Fisher perform at the 2015 General Election? Has he made lots of money on backing his predictions?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/596212487445446656?s=09

Ed is PM

geoffw said:

Philip_Thompson said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

No guarantee for that, bad news can always knock confidence and have a "cling to nurse for fear of worse" effect.

What, for example, would be "bad news for Out"?

I'm not psychic. Any news could be either good or bad for Out depending upon how people react.

Those who claim to know for certain are generally showing how they think rather than how the nation does. A very large proportion of people's reaction to news is actually to have that confirm their pre-existing gut instinct - meaning that what is good for one side for one voter could be bad for another.

foxinsoxuk said:

LewisDuckworth said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

A very salient point. As Carlotta said the other day it's the lack of clarity that makes it seem risky. The problem is that if clarity is a group of letters (EEA/EFTA) then the fear will become real.

There just isn't the time to explain concepts like these to an apathetic electorate. Whatever voters tell pollsters now they will not vote for something they don't trust and understand. The best they can hope for is abstentions

A basic tenet of advertising is you can't change what people believe. That takes too long. You have to persuade them that what you are selling is something they trust. As an experiment try to persuade people the EU is lightly regulated. Then try to persuade them that though intrusive the regulation has saved XXXXX lives. The second can be done the first can't

If they are obliged to get into 'EEA's and EFTA's' then they're in trouble and it's why Cummings is hoping to do the opposite and persuade people that the unknown is on the other side. But like I said such a counterintuitive idea that's going to be a very difficult sell.

I think that you are right. People need to be onside that euro-regulations are of benefit, whether the EWTD, part time workers rights, environmental regulation for clean beaches etc. That is before we get to the more complex discussions about how standardised regulations are part and parcel of the extension of the single market into services.

And yet, for all the "power" of Project Fear, and all the "incoherence" of LEAVE, it is LEAVE who have the momentum, and the overall polling shows an absolute dead heat.


http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

50 LEAVE v 50 REMAIN is, I am damn sure, not where Cameron expected to be 2 months before the vote. He wouldn't have called this referendum if he'd honestly expected it to be this close.

The polls haven't noticeably budged in the last month, nor have the betting markets not even Jacks ARSE.

Momentum? What momentum?

And thats for those who believe in the polls.

Also see here:

https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/719492680250744833

How did Fisher perform at the 2015 General Election? Has he made lots of money on backing his predictions?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/596212487445446656?s=09

Ed is PM

The Tories are doing less well to the Lib Dems in LD/Con seats.

Great prediction that.

Behind all the fancy models, the same groupthink

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Did we have these statistics for Scottish Independence? Given that the position of the young and old were reversed in that debate it would be interesting to see the perception of risk that they had.

We do. Well we have a Lord Ashcroft poll post Indyref.

Yes won every age group except 55 year old onwards

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf

As per Scotland the scared cowardly pensioners will turn out in droves and vote REMAIN in case their pension is in danger , no thought for their children's futures etc , just naked self seeking. England is about to get a large dose of what Scotland got last year, held back and ruined by old fuddy duddies scared of being a few quid worse off.

You may make light of pensioners concerns but they do not have means to increase their income and any threat to their pensions security will frighten them.

TOPPING said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Even if what you say were true, and I don't believe it is, then...

.

.

With a common currency the EZ is pretty much federalised already. Once you take monetary policy (let's call it "sovereignty" for short) away from a country, you are already some way down the path to federalism. Add in elements of the banking union and you are further still.

Using your arguments, if they are going to marginalise us if we are inside the EU then they sure as hell will marginalise us if we are outside. Now people such as @DavidL and I'm sure others on here will say: yes that's exactly it, we are marginalised but we don't get all the cr*p straight banana directives also. And that is a reasonable point. But there are certain toys eg. EUR-denominated clearing that would be taken away instantly.

But that is where the deal comes into play*. It insulates us from ECU and as you say formalises EZ/non-EZ non-discrimination. So it is in a sense the best of all worlds. No Euro, no discrimination, no ECU, no banking union, and yet we retain, as an EU member, vital benefits and safeguards from the single market (eg. EUR clearing, to pick an example more recent than 1994).

*I have always said that if you believe, as you seem to, that the other 27 heads of state were lying through their teeth and will renege or the ECJ will strike down the agreement, then of course you must vote Leave.

More dollars are bought and sold in London every day than in New York. More Euros are bought and sold than in the whole of the EZ put together. Do you really think that is going to be magically taken away from us if we leave? I mean really? If it was that simple why have the Americans not done it? The euro is a tradable currency and London is where the trade happens.

And the EZ is not already federalised. It has a common currency, monetary policy and interest rate but tax and spend is currently decided at national level subject to absolute crises like Greece. This needs to change. The quid pro quo of a single currency is that governments can't spend what they like because it is someone else's money.

But economic policy cannot be decided by the ECB under German domination. They need a multinational democratic institution to hold the bank to account. But at the moment it can't because the closer co-operation allowed by Lisbon does not allow the use of EU institutions like the Parliament. If I was Italian, Greek, Spanish or Portuguese I would be incredibly frustrated with this. Brexit will allow this to change.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

OOPS

4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illemore Libygal-sea-crossings.html

The migrants have switched routes.

Ooh, Europe becomes more Libyan by the day - although onle (RCS) at the rate of 750,000 a year (and the mix may include West Africans)..

The really fascinating bit is how Spain - despite having the shortest sea (or, indeed, land) distance to Africa - has only received about 400 migrants this year. It'd be interesting to know how they've managed to keep the numbers down.

Spain had an influx of boat people a few years ago, from West Africa. They made a point of returning them to their countries of origin, and provided the relevant governments with funding to facilitate this.

Very sensible.
(In fact, over the last five years I've found myself more and more impressed by the Spanish.)

HurstLlama said:

Apropos of nothing much I went for a haircut and to do some light grocery shopping in my nearest town today.

The barbers has been taken over by a new chap and I got the best haircut I have had for years, in fact I have never had such a good haircut in the UK. The last time I had such a treat was in the Oman. A real full works job; hair, eyebrows, ears and moustache (gone is my usual walrus, I now have the sort of clipped moustache that would have got an approving nod from my old RSM). Lots of work with an old fashioned razor and even the flaming ball banged against the ears (never seen that outside the ME). All done in silence and for £7 (plus a £3 tip that he tried to refuse). The barber? One Edrogan Tuyuz, a Turk recently settled in the UK.

After that I went to Lidl, where a charming young lady with a very strong East European accent stopped me buying some bread products that were on the shelf because she had a new batch just coming out of the oven that would be fresher and nicer. I also bought sausages from Germany, cured meats from Italy and, of course, cheese from France. All at very reasonable prices. The efficient young lady at the checkout was from Latvia (I asked).

From there to Waitrose for food for my cat (he loves their salmon flakes and will kill for a fresh roasted chicken). The jolly and helpful chap at the check-out was from South Africa.

Finally, to a bar for a drinkie while I waited for the bus home. Owned by a Pole and the waitress was Greek. Friendly, impeccable service and acceptable booze (no Portuguese wine, though).

All in a smallish town in darkest Sussex, the sort of place where Roger of this parish not long ago famously said on here that foreign voices are not heard without comment.

I am still going to vote to leave the EU, mind, and I see no contradiction between that and my very pleasant experiences today.

Hurst sounds like you had a very pleasant outing indeed.

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Even if what you say were true, and I don't believe it is, then...

.

.

With a common currency the EZ is pretty much federalised already. Once you take monetary policy (let's call it "sovereignty" for short) away from a country, you are already some way down the path to federalism. Add in elements of the banking union and you are further still.

Using your arguments, if they are going to marginalise us if we are inside the EU then they sure as hell will marginalise us if we are outside. Now people such as @DavidL and I'm sure others on here will say: yes that's exactly it, we are marginalised but we don't get all the cr*p straight banana directives also. And that is a reasonable point. But there are certain toys eg. EUR-denominated clearing that would be taken away instantly.

But that is where the deal comes into play*. It insulates us from ECU and as you say formalises EZ/non-EZ non-discrimination. So it is in a sense the best of all worlds. No Euro, no discrimination, no ECU, no banking union, and yet we retain, as an EU member, vital benefits and safeguards from the single market (eg. EUR clearing, to pick an example more recent than 1994).

*I have always said that if you believe, as you seem to, that the other 27 heads of state were lying through their teeth and will renege or the ECJ will strike down the agreement, then of course you must vote Leave.

More dollars are bought and sold in London every day than in New York. More Euros are bought and sold than in the whole of the EZ put together. Do you really think that is going to be magically taken away from us if we leave? I mean really? If it was that simple why have the Americans not done it? The euro is a tradable currency and London is where the trade happens.

And the EZ is not already federalised. It has a common currency, monetary policy and interest rate but tax and spend is currently decided at national level subject to absolute crises like Greece. This needs to change. The quid pro quo of a single currency is that governments can't spend what they like because it is someone else's money.

But economic policy cannot be decided by the ECB under German domination. They need a multinational democratic institution to hold the bank to account. But at the moment it can't because the closer co-operation allowed by Lisbon does not allow the use of EU institutions like the Parliament. If I was Italian, Greek, Spanish or Portuguese I would be incredibly frustrated with this. Brexit will allow this to change.

Yep we've had this discussion before. Unless we are going to get Eurozone exchange controls, which is fantastically unlikely, these kinds of warnings look like hot air.

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Public verdict on tax furore: Dave not so dodgy

British people tend to say David Cameron has not really done anything wrong in terms of his tax and investments – but are strongly in favour of making politicians publish their tax returns

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/nothing-dodgy-about-dave/

Amazing to think that this forum was awash with frothing about Dave's resignation only a week ago. (Of course, we've heard such frothing on 10,000 previous occasions.) I'm beginning to think that Dave is politically invincible.

His ratings are in freefall.

Currently he's preferred to Corbyn (!) as PM by 32/25%. At the end of last year, it was 49/23%.

By 2020 could we have left the EU and have Corbyn and McDonnell in No 10? Never mind DC and Brussels, our special relationship would now be with Moscow!

malcolmg said:

HurstLlama said:

Apropos of nothing much I went for a haircut and to do some light grocery shopping in my nearest town today.

The barbers has been taken over by a new chap and I got the best haircut I have had for years, in fact I have never had such a good haircut in the UK. The last time I had such a treat was in the Oman. A real full works job; hair, eyebrows, ears and moustache (gone is my usual walrus, I now have the sort of clipped moustache that would have got an approving nod from my old RSM). Lots of work with an old fashioned razor and even the flaming ball banged against the ears (never seen that outside the ME). All done in silence and for £7 (plus a £3 tip that he tried to refuse). The barber? One Edrogan Tuyuz, a Turk recently settled in the UK.

After that I went to Lidl, where a charming young lady with a very strong East European accent stopped me buying some bread products that were on the shelf because she had a new batch just coming out of the oven that would be fresher and nicer. I also bought sausages from Germany, cured meats from Italy and, of course, cheese from France. All at very reasonable prices. The efficient young lady at the checkout was from Latvia (I asked).

From there to Waitrose for food for my cat (he loves their salmon flakes and will kill for a fresh roasted chicken). The jolly and helpful chap at the check-out was from South Africa.

Finally, to a bar for a drinkie while I waited for the bus home. Owned by a Pole and the waitress was Greek. Friendly, impeccable service and acceptable booze (no Portuguese wine, though).

All in a smallish town in darkest Sussex, the sort of place where Roger of this parish not long ago famously said on here that foreign voices are not heard without comment.

I am still going to vote to leave the EU, mind, and I see no contradiction between that and my very pleasant experiences today.

Hurst sounds like you had a very pleasant outing indeed.

My other half had a similar experience yesterday. He came back from where he has been working in Tottenham (on the Spurs football ground redevelopment) and remarked on how multicultural and nice he found where he was working and the area round about. The people in the office came from a range of nationalities, including British and the atmosphere was really pleasant. I don't think he expected that a multicultural office would not be nice rather that it was a surprise to have such a nice working environment and the fact of having people from all over may have contributed to that.

Cyclefree said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, that said, on the prior thread Mr. 1000 said there's apparently a German law which makes it illegal to insult foreign heads of state. Which is crazy.

Mr. Tonda, welcome to pb.com.

So when that satirist did some rude sketches about our Queen, the German authorities rushed to arrest him, did they?

Or is it only foreign heads of state who make a fuss, have the Germans by the balls or lead a country where some people think that an insult should lead to a prison sentence or worse that the Germans worry about?

It's possible that they think of the Queen as a non-foreign head of state.

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm sure this will be well-received by all posters:

@BBCBreaking · 59s59 seconds ago

Lloyds Banking Group warns UK leaving EU would cause 'economic uncertainty' in short term

On behalf of Lloyds Banking Group I can state that the company believes staying in the EU also means economic uncertainty in the short term; and that in the long term there will be economic uncertainty either way.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

LewisDuckworth said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You don't understand. In yet another parallel with the Scottish independence debate, every item of news without exception is viewed by Leave supporters as good news for Leave and bad news for Remain.

In this case it is justified.
The news that affects people's perception of the Leave-Remain question is the news from Europe. Bad news from Europe is bad for Remain. There is a preponderance of bad news from the EU. QED.

There are two bits of news that would be good for the cause:

1. A worsening of the migrant crisis
2. The resumption of the Greek Crisis (is it Part III or Part IV)?

I think we can discount 1, now. The volume of stories is declining, because the number of migrants has fallen sharply.

2 is much more likely. The IMF is rowing with the EU about debt forgiveness. Unlike the economies of Spain and Ireland, which are roaring ahead, or even Portugal and Italy, which are improving slowly, Greece remains in meltdown.

OOPS

4000 refugees land in southern Italy in the past 48 hours.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537705/Europe-s-refugee-crisis-rumbles-Macedonia-uses-tear-gas-migrants-trying-pull-border-fence-Italy-rescues-4-000-Mediterranean-past-two-days-sparking-fears-alarming-rise-illemore Libygal-sea-crossings.html

The migrants have switched routes.

Ooh, Europe becomes more Libyan by the day - although onle (RCS) at the rate of 750,000 a year (and the mix may include West Africans)..

The really fascinating bit is how Spain - despite having the shortest sea (or, indeed, land) distance to Africa - has only received about 400 migrants this year. It'd be interesting to know how they've managed to keep the numbers down.

Spain had an influx of boat people a few years ago, from West Africa. They made a point of returning them to their countries of origin, and provided the relevant governments with funding to facilitate this.

Very sensible.
(In fact, over the last five years I've found myself more and more impressed by the Spanish.)

It's a policy that many of us advocated in the early stages of the migrant crisis. Take in the Syrians, send everyone else back to their nation of origin. Amazingly it worked for the Spanish and they have almost no migrant arriving any more.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Public verdict on tax furore: Dave not so dodgy

British people tend to say David Cameron has not really done anything wrong in terms of his tax and investments – but are strongly in favour of making politicians publish their tax returns

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/nothing-dodgy-about-dave/

Amazing to think that this forum was awash with frothing about Dave's resignation only a week ago. (Of course, we've heard such frothing on 10,000 previous occasions.) I'm beginning to think that Dave is politically invincible.

His ratings are in freefall.

Currently he's preferred to Corbyn (!) as PM by 32/25%. At the end of last year, it was 49/23%.

By 2020 could we have left the EU and have Corbyn and McDonnell in No 10? Never mind DC and Brussels, our special relationship would now be with Moscow!

I expect that in 2020, if there is any chance that Corbyn could win, Con-UKIP switchers will return to the Conservatives, as they did in 2015.

Edit, provided of course, that George Osborn isn't Conservative leader.

Lol.