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Dreadful numbers for Osbo lolAlistair said:0 -
It's coming. Only 10 days to go.
http://www.tor.com/2016/04/13/game-of-thrones-opening-sequence-360-immersive-experience/
Explore Westeros and Essos in the New Immersive Game of Thrones Opening Sequence!0 -
Easy to do, if you forget about your pensions income when doing the main body of the return...foxinsoxuk said:
From the in short section of that article Jezza paid 18 912 in tax (an overall rate of 27%) on £70 795. On the back of an envelope this works out at :FrancisUrquhart said:The story of Jezza and his tax return AGAIN....
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
Is he making pension or gift aid payments?0 -
That's because the story is patently bullshit.
Let's just imagine for a second that I wanted to set up a web of companies, for funneling billions of pounds of money.
Would I:
(a) have companies that had directors for exactly one day before being transferred to someone else
or
(b) simple generate a fake name at a PO Box (or a foreign address) for the director
A is evidence that the 788-790 Finchley Road was a factory for making off the shelf private companies. The only reason a firm would have a director for a day before being sold was if it was being used to simplify business creation.
As a matter of interest, what benefit would someone dodgy have in having 'directors for a day'? It makes no sense, their name is still on the company docs.
If I were doing fraudulent shit (and that's a technical term), I'd go for B. Why? Because there is basically no documentation required for being registered as a director of a business. Jose Smith of PO Box 232a in - ohh..... - Zagreb, would be essentially untraceable, and would be completely legal, and would comprehensively hide true beneficial ownership.
That is naive on so many levels Robert. You can steal billions from fake oil, gas and mining companies through gullible investors on the AIM (and the FCA never does anything for the individual investors because the companies concerned hide behind the shares can go down as well as up line). The difficulty lies in laundering the money to offshore locations such as Panama, British Virgin Islands etc. In order to do that and obfuscate the billions that have been stolen, you need a massive structure of subsidiary companies through which you can split up the billions. Of the 260,000 companies set up at 788 790 Finchley Road, you have a whole structure involving a satellite boiler room of a couple of addresses at Winnington House, 2 Woodberry Grove, N. Finchley and subsidiaries at 108, 402, 665 and 923 Finchley Road. I personally had a look at all of those addresses today - a hell of a way to walk! 665 Finchley Road fronts up as a Lebanese restaurant, and a pretty ugly one looking at that if I may say so and you'd never realise so many companies have been set up there.
Your idea of going for option B is laughable in the extreme, if you want to steal billions, how the heck do you think you'd disguise the fraud going on with 1 PO Box and the wonga going through it! And you have to do what Gordon Bowden has done to trace all the companies with interlocking director names and see the big picture and I literally mean BIG. 788 790 Finchley Road specialise in setting up the number of companies including shell and subsidiary companies required to carry out this fraud through the system. You simply couldn't carry out the level of fraud that runs into the billions of pounds outside the system.0 -
There were none declared.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Easy to do, if you forget about your pensions income when doing the main body of the return...foxinsoxuk said:
From the in short section of that article Jezza paid 18 912 in tax (an overall rate of 27%) on £70 795. On the back of an envelope this works out at :FrancisUrquhart said:The story of Jezza and his tax return AGAIN....
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
Is he making pension or gift aid payments?
I had a tax inspection a few years ago, which was quite an interesting lesson. I learnt a lot about what was deductible and what was not.0 -
You haven't factored in tax deductible charitable donations to the Provos and Hamas.....foxinsoxuk said:
From the in short section of that article Jezza paid 18 912 in tax (an overall rate of 27%) on £70 795. On the back of an envelope this works out at :FrancisUrquhart said:The story of Jezza and his tax return AGAIN....
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
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Yes it was the dumbest thing to do for Cameron and Osborne to launch the EU campaign just before the start of the locals and then have the EU infighting go on and on during the locals campaign.....Speedy said:
With those figures I would say the Locals look better for Labour everyday.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why on earth did they not wait until after May and then announce a "deal with the EU" and start the campaign with a vote in Sept or October.....?
Stupid is as stupid does.
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*does smug expression* To think until recently people seriously thought Osborne as leader could INCREASE the Tory majority.Pulpstar said:
Dreadful numbers for Osbo lolAlistair said:
In all seriousness, Osborne's numbers are not that surprising, but I am pleasantly surprised Corbyn is quite close to Boris.0 -
The recent polling and trend to Leave must absolutely terrify Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-03-05/jeremy-corbyn-accused-of-trying-to-hide-eurosceptic-past/Plato_Says said:
Speedy said:htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/720358522253361152
" The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aafc9424-59ff-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz45kGeiDL6
I think he'll try and keep quiet.0 -
He should have walked away in Feb and said its not good enough, then let the EU sweat for 3 months and go back at the EU in June. He would have got a slightly better deal, been seen as the strong PM standing up to the EU and avoided the internal rows harming the local campaign of the Conservatives.Pulpstar said:
He's only got himself to blame, his renegotiation was utterly shit.runnymede said:Cameron has made a very bad misjudgement on the EU
Maybe he is just in a rush to get out of the job and move on in his life? Just demob happy?
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Cleggy on Newsnight to push legalizing drugs...0
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Cameron sold himself, lock, stock and barrel to the EU by his farce of re-negotiation with Brussels. The people know a con-man when they see him and Cameron is the biggest political con-man since before WW2. And a WW2 word describes him absolutely: Spiv.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN have lost what once was said to be their Unique Selling Point Cameron.
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.0 -
That poll has just killed off George Osborne's leadership chances.
Him as Tory leader means PM Corbyn.0 -
Since his negotiation the polls have swung decisively in favour of Leave.MP_SE said:
The recent polling and trend to Leave must absolutely terrify Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
His appearance is probably sponsored by an anti-drug campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:Cleggy on Newsnight to push legalizing drugs...
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Leavers have no real contributions except insults. They will lose.MikeK said:
Cameron sold himself, lock, stock and barrel to the EU by his farce of re-negotiation with Brussels. The people know a con-man when they see him and Cameron is the biggest political con-man since before WW2. And a WW2 word describes him absolutely: Spiv.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN have lost what once was said to be their Unique Selling Point Cameron.
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.
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A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
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At what point does Cameron get desperate andDanny565 said:
*does smug expression* To think until recently people seriously thought Osborne as leader could INCREASE the Tory majority.Pulpstar said:
Dreadful numbers for Osbo lolAlistair said:
In all seriousness, Osborne's numbers are not that surprising, but I am pleasantly surprised Corbyn is quite close to Boris.
a) knife Osborne
b) stop Project Lie and even tack toward a more neutral position
c) both?
what odds can you get on both Cameron and Osborne being out of office by end-year?
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You're such a Jonny Come Lately.TCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
I wrote last year Corbyn could topple Cameron via the EU Referendum.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/16/how-mr-corbyn-could-end-camerons-premiership/0 -
Agree,let's hope Osborne takes over the in campaign ;-) maybe corbyn and farron thrown in ;-)TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN have lost what once was said to be their Unique Selling Point Cameron.
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.0 -
Only if the polls start to show a 10 point Leave lead.runnymede said:
At what point does Cameron get desperate andDanny565 said:
*does smug expression* To think until recently people seriously thought Osborne as leader could INCREASE the Tory majority.Pulpstar said:
Dreadful numbers for Osbo lolAlistair said:
In all seriousness, Osborne's numbers are not that surprising, but I am pleasantly surprised Corbyn is quite close to Boris.
a) knife Osborne
b) stop Project Lie and even tack toward a more neutral position
c) both?
what odds can you get on both Cameron and Osborne being out of office by end-year?
At that point even Cameron will probably give up and chart a more neutral course to politically safe waters.0 -
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.0 -
You mean those voters who can't see a doctor on the NHS, have seen their wages drop back and can't get on the housing ladder? Those who have seen their fellow workers lose their jobs at Redcar, Ebbw Vale and possibly Port Talbot - all to the effects of being in the EU?TCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
These are the people who probably haven't given much thought to the referendum yet as they are more concerned in making a living of sorts. Will be very hard for REMAIN to sway a lot of them back.0 -
Easy to say but since you imply that this applies to all Leavers, here is one of them.perdix said:
Leavers have no real contributions except insults. They will lose.MikeK said:
Cameron sold himself, lock, stock and barrel to the EU by his farce of re-negotiation with Brussels. The people know a con-man when they see him and Cameron is the biggest political con-man since before WW2. And a WW2 word describes him absolutely: Spiv.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN have lost what once was said to be their Unique Selling Point Cameron.
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.
Please list all the LEAVER insults in this interview from Dan Hannan. They are dominated 10 to 1 or more by points that are not insulting.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/video/2016/mar/31/daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-is-a-once-in-a-generation-vote-video-interview
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Swung, yes, but not decisively.AndyJS said:
Since his negotiation the polls have swung decisively in favour of Leave.MP_SE said:
The recent polling and trend to Leave must absolutely terrify Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:
You only have to look at some of pb.com's biggest Leave posters who *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave (including you) to see that.
Why? What are you waiting for?
Project Terror hasn't even finished the hors d'oeuvres, yet alone the main course. If you're not solid now, how will we know you'll be solid on 23rd June?
All that matters is what box you put your cross in that day - nothing else.0 -
The above is no insult. It's the absolute truth. That you can't see it is your folly.perdix said:
Leavers have no real contributions except insults. They will lose.MikeK said:
Cameron sold himself, lock, stock and barrel to the EU by his farce of re-negotiation with Brussels. The people know a con-man when they see him and Cameron is the biggest political con-man since before WW2. And a WW2 word describes him absolutely: Spiv.TCPoliticalBetting said:REMAIN have lost what once was said to be their Unique Selling Point Cameron.
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.0 -
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year0
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The fact Vote Leave is now the official Leave campaign could well be a victory in disguise for Farage. If Leave wins he has achieved his lifetime goal, if Leave loses, especially narrowly, he can blame it on the official Leave campaign and use GO as a vehicle to propel UKIP in the polls on the back of disillusioned Leave voters, he wins either way0
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The assumption that all overseas funds must have worse returns than UK funds is asinine.tyson said:Fox- you are making my point for me. I know there are plenty of funds that invest overseas- that are UK based. I invest in obscure mineral companies, emerging economies and whatnot through some obscure UK funds- but these are UK funds. That is exactly my point- there are so many funds out there you can invest in- but these are all home based. My portfolio is actually very diverse. So why do you need to invest in an offshore based fund.
Also, whenever you invest in an individual shares, you are doing this as a UK resident I guess. If you want to invest in an overseas company on their stock market, you will have to comply to their residency requirements.
So why, when you can invest in UK based funds with overseas interests, would you want to invest directly in an overseas fund which probably costs more and has worse returns?foxinsoxuk said:@ tyson
If you want to invest offshore there are plenty of UK funds that will do it. My Hargreaves - Lansdowne ISA lists plenty, and it is possible to buy individual foreign shares too on some exchanges. There must be other reasons for people to move money offshore.
Personally I like to choose my own shares so that I can avoid unethical companies rather than go with Trusts. It also reduces the amount paid in charges, but each to their own.
If you assumption is right that UK funds have better returns than overseas ones, then why shouldn't everyone overseas invest in our funds to get our better returns?
What hubris ...0 -
0
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For Cameron and Osborne it just seems to late. Cameron cannot resist the lying and misinformation and then wondering why his communications on the EU are being rejected. Today at PMQs was another example. Rees-Mogg asked him to respond to that leaflets border twaddle about people from the EU and Cameron went into a polemic rant about keeping out non EU people. Insulting back benchers will just bring his end quicker than he planned.runnymede said:
At what point does Cameron get desperate andDanny565 said:
*does smug expression* To think until recently people seriously thought Osborne as leader could INCREASE the Tory majority.Pulpstar said:
Dreadful numbers for Osbo lolAlistair said:
In all seriousness, Osborne's numbers are not that surprising, but I am pleasantly surprised Corbyn is quite close to Boris.
a) knife Osborne
b) stop Project Lie and even tack toward a more neutral position
c) both?
what odds can you get on both Cameron and Osborne being out of office by end-year?
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Outlook on the Dow - those looking for a crash into 2020 are going to be well and truly on the wrong side of the trade. August and November to the downside look interesting, but this is basing for a big break to the upside, up to as much as 40,000 potentially, once the sovereign debt crisis really starts in earnest in January 2017 and everyone looks to shelter in the stockmarket and later on gold (but it needs to bottom first ideally around $900 next January):
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-dow-breaking-out-again/0 -
Please expand.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
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Everyone has heard Project Fear's arguments. What else do they have to offer? More of the same arguments rephrased. There is no positive vision, just fear.Casino_Royale said:
Swung, yes, but not decisively.AndyJS said:
Since his negotiation the polls have swung decisively in favour of Leave.MP_SE said:
The recent polling and trend to Leave must absolutely terrify Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:
You only have to look at some of pb.com's biggest Leave posters who *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave (including you) to see that.
Why? What are you waiting for?
Project Terror hasn't even finished the hors d'oeuvres, yet alone the main course. If you're not solid now, how will we know you'll be solid on 23rd June?
All that matters is what box you put your cross in that day - nothing else.
I am hopeful that with a low ish turnout Leave will win this.0 -
Are you implying that this is the night the Poles turned?TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
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So we can join the caliphate?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh Eck. Enoch was right
https://twitter.com/Muslims4Britain/status/7203657658749624330 -
On my long walk up and down the Finchley Road today, there was one bookshop on the odd numbered side of the street just before you get to the North Circular which had a stronger in Europe banner up on the door - suffice to say they didn't look very busy when I walked past! Has anyone else seen any banners up for either side?0
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Well it's the first clear Labour lead since the GE, and trust on Cameron about the EU has fallen 8 points since February to 21%, 4 points lower than Corbyn's.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
And Corbyn is quite a low bar in the polls for Cameron to fall under.0 -
Yes. Those who site immigration as their biggest concern yet voted Labour at the GE.weejonnie said:
You mean those voters who can't see a doctor on the NHS, have seen their wages drop back and can't get on the housing ladder? Those who have seen their fellow workers lose their jobs at Redcar, Ebbw Vale and possibly Port Talbot - all to the effects of being in the EU?TCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
These are the people who probably haven't given much thought to the referendum yet as they are more concerned in making a living of sorts. Will be very hard for REMAIN to sway a lot of them back.
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Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.0 -
Yup, a vote for Leave is a vote for ISIS and the Caliphate running the UK instead of the EU.rcs1000 said:
So we can join the caliphate?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh Eck. Enoch was right
https://twitter.com/Muslims4Britain/status/7203657658749624330 -
The poor Poles don't have a vote in this referendum.Jonathan said:
Are you implying that this is the night the Poles turned?TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
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Presumably Jezza failed to mention the income he got from renting a spare room too.
That is the thing with the middle class tax compliants a la Jezza who are hopeless at completing a form and the likes of Cameron whose father made his wealth out of setting uo an offshore fund for tax avoidance and encouraging criminals to launder dirty money- why else set up an offshore fund through Panama?
Apart from Foxin, who made a half hearted effort to persuade me, why would anyone put their money outside of the UK directly (out of the UK) into an offshore fund unless it is to hide taxes or to launder dirty money?foxinsoxuk said:
There were none declared.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Easy to do, if you forget about your pensions income when doing the main body of the return...foxinsoxuk said:
From the in short section of that article Jezza paid 18 912 in tax (an overall rate of 27%) on £70 795. On the back of an envelope this works out at :FrancisUrquhart said:The story of Jezza and his tax return AGAIN....
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
Is he making pension or gift aid payments?
I had a tax inspection a few years ago, which was quite an interesting lesson. I learnt a lot about what was deductible and what was not.0 -
If there is a widespread belief in the general public that Leave could actually win then it will win. At this point though, at least based on what I see, most people think Remain will win out and the polling trends haven't reached through to Joe Bloggs.
The reasoning behind Remain seems to be quite heavy on it being a kind of safer 'what you know' choice. I don't get the feeling that its done with much enthusiasm.
Thats not a lot to hold on to in a tight race.
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UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street under FPTP!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Cleggy making a right crap job of answering Evan Davis softball questions.0
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Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
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As opposed to all the times he's done a good job doing... well... anything.FrancisUrquhart said:Cleggy making a right crap job of answering Evan Davis softball questions.
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I really think you need to consider very carefully whether a small number of regular posters on this site really tell you anything at all useful about the referendum result. Anything more than a random straw poll down the boozer would.Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
This site is at its very worst when it becomes self-referential in this way.0 -
I've moved to Remain this evening.Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.0 -
Naughty...it should have been a dead easy gig, given he was the one making the report the questions were based on.rcs1000 said:
As opposed to all the times he's done a good job doing... well... anything.FrancisUrquhart said:Cleggy making a right crap job of answering Evan Davis softball questions.
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My father met up with an old work colleague this afternoon. The entire family are Labour voters and will be voting to leave. This is quite encouraging.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.0 -
Good points. I think that the methodology being used in the polls is overall, being kind to REMAIN. Turnout assumptions being the biggest area for mistakes.Y0kel said:If there is a widespread belief in the general public that Leave could actually win then it will win. At this point though, at least based on what I see, most people think Remain will win out and the polling trends haven't reached through to Joe Bloggs.
The reasoning behind Remain seems to be quite heavy on it being a kind of safer 'what you know' choice. I don't get the feeling that its done with much enthusiasm.
Thats not a lot to hold on to in a tight race.
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I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?0 -
I well remember the emails on here saying Corbyn wasn't going to last past the May election results, let alone win in 2020! I hope people will note that I assigned a lot higher chance of Corbyn ending up in Downing St on his election as Labour leader than nearly everyone else. In a normal economic environment he would stand no chance. The global sovereign debt crisis from 2017 into January 2020 will decidedly not be ordinary times.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street under FPTP!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.0 -
TSE. I have to say that I had the impression from your posts that you decided to vote REMAIN many weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've moved to Remain this evening.Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
0 -
Hunchman says:
"That is naive on so many levels Robert. You can steal billions from fake oil, gas and mining companies through gullible investors on the AIM (and the FCA never does anything for the individual investors because the companies concerned hide behind the shares can go down as well as up line). The difficulty lies in laundering the money to offshore locations such as Panama, British Virgin Islands etc. In order to do that and obfuscate the billions that have been stolen, you need a massive structure of subsidiary companies through which you can split up the billions. Of the 260,000 companies set up at 788 790 Finchley Road, you have a whole structure involving a satellite boiler room of a couple of addresses at Winnington House, 2 Woodberry Grove, N. Finchley and subsidiaries at 108, 402, 665 and 923 Finchley Road. I personally had a look at all of those addresses today - a hell of a way to walk! 665 Finchley Road fronts up as a Lebanese restaurant, and a pretty ugly one looking at that if I may say so and you'd never realise so many companies have been set up there.
Your idea of going for option B is laughable in the extreme, if you want to steal billions, how the heck do you think you'd disguise the fraud going on with 1 PO Box and the wonga going through it! And you have to do what Gordon Bowden has done to trace all the companies with interlocking director names and see the big picture and I literally mean BIG. 788 790 Finchley Road specialise in setting up the number of companies including shell and subsidiary companies required to carry out this fraud through the system. You simply couldn't carry out the level of fraud that runs into the billions of pounds outside the system."
In your first paragraph you make the point that dodgy shit has happened in quoted resource companies. No shit. See "Not a Penny More, Not a Penny Less" by a certain J Archer in the early 1980s.
But that has nothing to do with 788-790 Finchley Road.
The evidence Gordon Bowden has amassed is exactly the same evidence you would gather if you looked at the record of *any* creator of companies. Interlocking directorships: check. Interlocking ownership: check. People director for one day: check. Businesses sold with no ongoing business: check.
You simply couldn't carry out the level of fraud that runs into the billions of pounds outside the system
Of course you can. I (accidentally) broke one of the biggest accounting scandals of all time in my mid-20s. It required no shell companies, no directors for a day, etc. Because all that stuff is completely unnecessary to loot businesses.
The reason people who genuinely have uncovered are so sceptical of 788-790 Finchley Road is because the pattern of behaviour that you and Bowden regard as suspicious is exactly what you;d expect from any business that created off-the-shelf companies for sale.0 -
Is anyone going to buy the book 'The Secret Life of Bill Clinton' by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard? The body count apparently of the wreckage left behind by the Clinton's I've heard is around 46, as sourced by former White House press secretary Mike McCurry.....and very tellingly nobody bothers to sue Mr McCurry. I wonder why not?
http://www.amazon.com/The-Secret-Life-Bill-Clinton/dp/08952640800 -
UKIP of 17% with its uniform 95% LEAVe and a very high turnout... That could easily translate to circa 23% of the actual vote on June 23rd for LEAVE. Only needs 28% from elsewhere.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories ....... There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP ....TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Turnout was 66% in the 2015 GE, which was perceived as a nailbiter one and with the extra choice of UKIP for past non-voters.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
Turnout won't be close to that one, it will be at least 10 points lower.
And then you have to factor that the Referendum is held in late June.0 -
That is pretty impressive. I always enjoy reading about the likes of Gotham City Research and Muddy Waters.rcs1000 said:
You simply couldn't carry out the level of fraud that runs into the billions of pounds outside the system
Of course you can. I (accidentally) broke one of the biggest accounting scandals of all time in my mid-20s. It required no shell companies, no directors for a day, etc. Because all that stuff is completely unnecessary to loot businesses.
The reason people who genuinely have uncovered are so sceptical of 788-790 Finchley Road is because the pattern of behaviour that you and Bowden regard as suspicious is exactly what you;d expect from any business that created off-the-shelf companies for sale.
Did GS short the shares prior to your research being published?0 -
tyson said:
why would anyone put their money outside of the UK directly (out of the UK) into an offshore fund unless it is to hide taxes or to launder dirty money?foxinsoxuk said:
There were none declared.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Easy to do, if you forget about your pensions income when doing the main body of the return...foxinsoxuk said:
From the in short section of that article Jezza paid 18 912 in tax (an overall rate of 27%) on £70 795. On the back of an envelope this works out at :FrancisUrquhart said:The story of Jezza and his tax return AGAIN....
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
Is he making pension or gift aid payments?
I had a tax inspection a few years ago, which was quite an interesting lesson. I learnt a lot about what was deductible and what was not.
Historically, there was an advantage in funds being offshore since they could be more risky and were subject to less consumer regulation (eg shorting stocks and the other more exotic financial instruments available). This obviously made management costs lower but meant the risk of loosing all your money was greater. However since the investors were 'sophisticated' no one cared too much about the reduced investor protection.0 -
Worth noting Lab was +1 with YouGov last month - Lab 34, Con 33.
Other polls then subsequently put Con ahead - by 2, 2, 5 and 1.
So may be that YouGov is most favourable for Lab.0 -
What was the Scottish referendum turnout as I would expect it to be similarSpeedy said:
Turnout was 66% in the 2015 GE, which was perceived as a nailbiter one and with the extra choice of UKIP for past non-voters.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
Turnout won't be close to that one, it will be at least 10 points lower.
And then you have to factor that the Referendum is held in late June.0 -
Yes, Sanders and Corbyn leading general election polls, Trump the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, Le Pen in front in France, Wilders in the Netherlands, UKIP on the rise, Podemos with the balance of power in Spain, the next few years will see a battering for the political establishmenthunchman said:
I well remember the emails on here saying Corbyn wasn't going to last past the May election results, let alone win in 2020! I hope people will note that I assigned a lot higher chance of Corbyn ending up in Downing St on his election as Labour leader than nearly everyone else. In a normal economic environment he would stand no chance. The global sovereign debt crisis from 2017 into January 2020 will decidedly not be ordinary times.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street under FPTP!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The possibility of English Leave but British Remain is looking more and more plausible.0
-
85%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What was the Scottish referendum turnout as I would expect it to be similarSpeedy said:
Turnout was 66% in the 2015 GE, which was perceived as a nailbiter one and with the extra choice of UKIP for past non-voters.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
Turnout won't be close to that one, it will be at least 10 points lower.
And then you have to factor that the Referendum is held in late June.
You are probably one of the most optimistic people about turnout in the whole country.0 -
I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?0
-
Maybe not then - I do not see it at those levels, maybe 60-65% depending on how much the campaigns and debates arouse interestSpeedy said:
85%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What was the Scottish referendum turnout as I would expect it to be similarSpeedy said:
Turnout was 66% in the 2015 GE, which was perceived as a nailbiter one and with the extra choice of UKIP for past non-voters.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
Turnout won't be close to that one, it will be at least 10 points lower.
And then you have to factor that the Referendum is held in late June.0 -
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?0 -
I'm still 50/50 despite everything. Neither side fills me with confidence.SeanT said:
I'm about 70% Leave right now (FWIW),Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
If a vote were held tomorrow I'd definitely vote LEAVE. The scare stories scare me (as a London property-owner, especially) but I struggle to see any EU-future which is not even worse, long term, for Europe and for us, so there will be grievous pain anyway. The EU refuses to reform, its political structure positively invites stagnation and ennui.
Best get rid of the rotten tooth, now. Painful but necessary.
LEAVE.0 -
As I said UKIP's support is disproportionally working class which has a lower turnout, even if UKIP voters who do vote will be almost universally LeaveTCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP of 17% with its uniform 95% LEAVe and a very high turnout... That could easily translate to circa 23% of the actual vote on June 23rd for LEAVE. Only needs 28% from elsewhere.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories ....... There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP ....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
-
On tonight's poll certainly, a nightmare for Cameron and a wet dream for Farage and SturgeonPhilip_Thompson said:The possibility of English Leave but British Remain is looking more and more plausible.
0 -
If Leave wins the economy will tank for a number of years. That will give Labour a stick to beat the Tories with and deny them a majority. Be careful what you wish for. Corbyn will raise the white flag everywhere.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE. I have to say that I had the impression from your posts that you decided to vote REMAIN many weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've moved to Remain this evening.Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
0 -
Don't be frit! Read this, and gird your loins:Casino_Royale said:
Nope. Remain will win.TheScreamingEagles said:The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_to_the_Troops_at_Tilbury0 -
This referendum has far more to stir the passions than Cameron and Ed Miliband and late June is still before most schools have broken upSpeedy said:
Turnout was 66% in the 2015 GE, which was perceived as a nailbiter one and with the extra choice of UKIP for past non-voters.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 60% but regardless UKIP voters may be more for Leave but they are also the most working class, I would expect the highest turnout from Tory and LD voters who are the most middle class. Even if all the Labour working class turn out for Remain, Tory + UKIP voters even on tonight's poll are 6% more than Labour and LD voters, so Cameron has to win a fair proportion of Tory voters to win given UKIP voters will be almost universally Leave. Indeed I would also add SNP voters could be more important to Cameron than Labour voters too, given it is so tight Scotland could prove decisive! If it is 50 50 UK wide, as in the new poll, then Leave is almost certainly ahead in EnglandTCPoliticalBetting said:
Just draw up a model with overall turnout of 55% or less.HYUFD said:
No, Tory voters are the key. Cameron needs to win at least 40-45% of Tory voters regardless of what Labour voters do for Remain to winTCPoliticalBetting said:
A PB person on here that has Mrs Duffy as their avatar has been saying for weeks, that Labour voters are the key to this referendum.Speedy said:... " The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
With UKIP's 14%+ voting 95% for LEAVE and a 80% turn out and then Conservatives 60% LEAVE with a 70% turnout and if all other voters are 2:1 for REMAIN but on average 50% turnout, LEAVE win. Labour would need to get their voters turnout close to Conservatives and voter choice closer to UKIP for REMAIN to win. I am coming to believe that we are going to see a voter strike from Labour's working class.
Turnout won't be close to that one, it will be at least 10 points lower.
And then you have to factor that the Referendum is held in late June.0 -
The EU referendum is not that of a life or death importance as the Scottish one.HYUFD said:
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?
That is why apathy and low turnout are so likely, and why Leave has a structural advantage.
And that is why SLAB collapsed in scotland and why the Tories will not collapse in favour of UKIP, the EU is not a priority to voters as scottish independence was in scotland.0 -
-
My wife and I are so undecided but will vote. We are going to listen to both sides of the argument and in particular Michael Gove's input and as we have postal votes will decide either way in time for the posting. I will also say which way we voted and the reasons for it the day we post our votes. To leavers who do not believe I could vote leave I would say it is a 50/50 decision at present and would suggest that there are many thousands in the same boat. Have a good night's rest one and all0
-
There is not an exact comparison but already the Tories have lost 4% to UKIP on tonight's poll BEFORE the referendum, there need not be an avalanche to UKIP, even a moderate trickle could let Corbyn in through the backdoor!Speedy said:
The EU referendum is not that of a life or death importance as the Scottish one.HYUFD said:
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?
That is why apathy and low turnout are so likely, and why Leave has a structural advantage.
And that is why SLAB collapsed in scotland and why the Tories will not collapse in favour of UKIP, the EU is not a priority to voters as scottish independence was in scotland.0 -
Little Stoke Parkrun event off after charge vote
A Parkrun event which became the focus of an international outcry after a council voted to charge organisers to stage it has been cancelled. Organisers of the weekly run, in Little Stoke Park, near Bristol, have called off Saturday's event amid safety concerns.
They said they feared the number of people wishing to join in may exceed the park's "safe limit".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-36041059
An "international outcry" is a bit Daily Mail-esque strong...who says the BBC remain impartial on all issues...Panama Paper was an international outcry, a free running event in a small regional town I highly doubt is leading the news in all major western countries.
None the less, parish council are total tw@ts on this one.0 -
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I would be interested in what people's logic would be for a positive answer to that question.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well that went well for Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.0 -
I have a suspicion that while 2015 was the election that no-one though the Tories could win but did, 2020 will be the election that no-one though the Tories could lose but did. So far this parliament is having worrying echoes of 1992-1997.HYUFD said:
There is not an exact comparison but already the Tories have lost 4% to UKIP on tonight's poll BEFORE the referendum, there need not be an avalanche to UKIP, even a moderate trickle could let Corbyn in through the backdoor!Speedy said:
The EU referendum is not that of a life or death importance as the Scottish one.HYUFD said:
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?
That is why apathy and low turnout are so likely, and why Leave has a structural advantage.
And that is why SLAB collapsed in scotland and why the Tories will not collapse in favour of UKIP, the EU is not a priority to voters as scottish independence was in scotland.0 -
Some official was saying it is to do with insurance but if people turned up in groups but not in an organisation it would be free. You just have to wonder what planet they are onFrancisUrquhart said:Little Stoke Parkrun event off after charge vote
A Parkrun event which became the focus of an international outcry after a council voted to charge organisers to stage it has been cancelled. Organisers of the weekly run, in Little Stoke Park, near Bristol, have called off Saturday's event amid safety concerns.
They said they feared the number of people wishing to join in may exceed the park's "safe limit".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-36041059
An "international outcry" is a bit Daily Mail-esque strong...who says the BBC remain impartial on all issues...Panama Paper was an international outcry, a free running event in a small regional town I highly doubt is leading the news in all major western countries.
None the less, parish council are total tw@ts on this one.0 -
For really simple start-up ideas those off the shelf things are very cheap and cheerful. Used them myself in the past. Until the great multi-billion dollar conspiracy was revealed, I never even thought about how they are actually created.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.0 -
I remember my favourite purchase.FrancisUrquhart said:
For really simple start-up ideas those off the shelf things are very cheap and cheerful. Used them myself in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.
For a major UK retailer, they wanted to build a massive new warehouse for their products, they wanted to do it under the radar.
The architects named it 'Project FMS' The FMS standing for 'Fucking Massive Shed'
So we bought a company along the name of FMS0 -
I didn't know it was the central office. Interestingly it's right next door to the army barracks.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.0 -
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
I remember my favourite purchase.FrancisUrquhart said:
For really simple start-up ideas those off the shelf things are very cheap and cheerful. Used them myself in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.
For a major UK retailer, they wanted to build a massive new warehouse for their products, they wanted to do it under the radar.
The architects named it 'Project FMS' The FMS standing for 'Fucking Massive Shed'
So we bought a company along the name of FMS0 -
Indeed, certainly if Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis were leading Labour they would be at least 10 points ahead by nowJonathanD said:
I have a suspicion that while 2015 was the election that no-one though the Tories could win but did, 2020 will be the election that no-one though the Tories could lose but did. So far this parliament is having worrying echoes of 1992-1997.HYUFD said:
There is not an exact comparison but already the Tories have lost 4% to UKIP on tonight's poll BEFORE the referendum, there need not be an avalanche to UKIP, even a moderate trickle could let Corbyn in through the backdoor!Speedy said:
The EU referendum is not that of a life or death importance as the Scottish one.HYUFD said:
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?
That is why apathy and low turnout are so likely, and why Leave has a structural advantage.
And that is why SLAB collapsed in scotland and why the Tories will not collapse in favour of UKIP, the EU is not a priority to voters as scottish independence was in scotland.0 -
It's where all the admin and paperwork is done. The London office is purely a library/research facility.FrankBooth said:
I didn't know it was the central office. Interestingly it's right next door to the army barracks.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would explain why Companies House is based in Cardiff.Richard_Nabavi said:I haven't entirely followed the full conspiracy theory, but am I right in thinking it odd that the cunning devils would have left a full audit trail at Companies House?
The Illuminati run that palace like a Borgia Pope.
Full disclosure of interest.
My friend worked for a company called Formations Direct, which sold off the shelf new companies and I bought several companies that way for clients.0 -
Trump in PA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDAjSC1l-ro0 -
rcs1000 says:
In your first paragraph you make the point that dodgy shit has happened in quoted resource companies. No shit. See "Not a Penny More, Not a Penny Less" by a certain J Archer in the early 1980s.
But that has nothing to do with 788-790 Finchley Road.
The evidence Gordon Bowden has amassed is exactly the same evidence you would gather if you looked at the record of *any* creator of companies. Interlocking directorships: check. Interlocking ownership: check. People director for one day: check. Businesses sold with no ongoing business: check.
You simply couldn't carry out the level of fraud that runs into the billions of pounds outside the system
Of course you can. I (accidentally) broke one of the biggest accounting scandals of all time in my mid-20s. It required no shell companies, no directors for a day, etc. Because all that stuff is completely unnecessary to loot businesses.
The reason people who genuinely have uncovered are so sceptical of 788-790 Finchley Road is because the pattern of behaviour that you and Bowden regard as suspicious is exactly what you;d expect from any business that created off-the-shelf companies for sale.
Kudos for uncovering that fraud, but with respect it is on nowhere near the level of the aggregate fraud committed at Finchley Road. And if as you assert that its a load of bull$hit, then why has no one in the establishment sued Gordon Bowden over the past couple of years? After Andrea (Tara Davison scuttled out of the country on suing Mr Bowden for defamation amongst others, no one has dared go near it, and for good reason because his meticulous research would stand the test in a court of law - people involved in this fraud may be greedy and corrupt but they're not stupid.
I could point to companies like UK Oil Gas Ltd with its fake promises of millions of barrels of oil around Gatwick Airport, Anglesey Mining (don't get me started on them), Falklands Oil and Gas etc. And remember that Mr Bowden only started researching all of this around 15 years ago because his then partner in South Africa lost a great sum of money for her, which was traced all the way back to....you've guessed it.......788 790 Finchley Road.
And to say it has nothing to do with 788 790 Finchley Road - do yourself a favour and look through the 88,720 companies here and you'll find a lot of them are (fake) oil, gas and mining companies:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/C7trUnW0xAvzpaSmVXVviwNi2BY/appointments0 -
JonathanD said:
Cameron will be a hard act to follow, as were Churchill, MacMillan, Wilson, Thatcher, Blair. There is no obvious candidate: lots who tick a few of the required boxes, but all having significant negatives.HYUFD said:Speedy said:
The EU referendum is not that of a life or death importance as the Scottish one.HYUFD said:
Many of those UKIP voters will be so disgusted by Cameron and Osborne's betrayal over the referendum they will vote for Farage even if it does risk Corbyn. The LDs may see a minor gain but not much, others includes SNP and Greens too I supposeSpeedy said:
I doubt that UKIP will hover that high under a prospect of a Corbyn government.HYUFD said:
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street!TheScreamingEagles said:
The number I'm looking is the LD one, if they start creeping up along with the Tories creeping down then that will be a sign that Cameron centrism is starting to fail.
Question though, in the yougov poll Others are at 11% , who are those Others ?
That is why apathy and low turnout are so likely, and why Leave has a structural advantage.
And that is why SLAB collapsed in scotland and why the Tories will not collapse in favour of UKIP, the EU is not a priority to voters as scottish independence was in scotland.
I have a suspicion that while 2015 was the election that no-one though the Tories could win but did, 2020 will be the election that no-one though the Tories could lose but did. So far this parliament is having worrying echoes of 1992-1997.
The Tories need to be careful that the Euro bust-up does not go beyond the point of no return. Corbyn is not a licence for a complete collapse of discipline as he may not be there in 2020, and even if he is he may not be as unelectable as some seem to think.0 -
Playing Wagner - are you getting excited Rod?0
This discussion has been closed.