I have a suspicion that while 2015 was the election that no-one though the Tories could win but did, 2020 will be the election that no-one though the Tories could lose but did. So far this parliament is having worrying echoes of 1992-1997.
I think that's absolutely right.
However there is one wildcard that could save the Tories - a new leader who will be able to make a completely fresh start.
If things carried on on the current track they would be in desperate trouble. But that won't happen. The EU ref will come and go, Cameron will go at some point and a new leader will come in.
The nearer the new leader starts to 2020 the better chance they will have - in order to maximise their bounce.
UKIP clearly hitting the Tories but voters clearly beginning to see unfairness in the way austerity is being managed and the economy is being managed. For example I learnt today that a visually impaired friend has lost his fairly low paid job on the local council, we learn that steel workers are allowed to go to the wall while Cameron and Osborne give tax break upon tax break to the rich and go out of their way to help the City and consultants and after lambasting tax evasion we learn they are not indifferent to a bit of sly tax management themselves. There is no enthusiasm for Corbyn, but if the Tories continue to lose votes to UKIP even if Labour get only 34%, ie Kinnock's score in 1992, Corbyn and McDonnell could end up in Downing Street under FPTP!
Kinnock in 1992 actually managed 35.2% on a GB basis - which is what the polls measure!
[Sunil and TSE confront each other, after the former has learnt that the latter has turned to the Daft Side]
Sunil: You have allowed this Europhile Chancellor to twist your mind, until now, until now you've become the very thing you swore to destroy.
TSE: Don't lecture me, Sunil! I see through the lies of the LEAVE campaign. I do not fear the European Union as you do. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire!
Sunil: Your new Empire?
TSE: Don't make me MODERATE you.
Sunil: TSE, my allegiance is to the Republic Monarchy, to democracy!
TSE: If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
Sunil:[realizing that TSE is consumed by evil and there's no reasoning with him anymore] Only a Europhile deals in absolutes. [draws his lightsaber] I will do what I must!
TSE: You will try! [draws his own lightsaber and confronts Sunil!]
[later during a pause in the battle]
Sunil: I have failed you, TSE. I have failed you.
TSE: I should have known the LEAVERS were plotting to take over. Chancellor Osborne has showed me the true ways of the Force.
Sunil: TSE, Chancellor Osborne is evil! The Europhiles are evil. The Daft Side of the Force is an evil presence.
TSE: From my point of view, it is the LEAVERS who are evil.
Sunil: Well, then you really are lost!
TSE:[raises his lightsaber] This is the end for you... my former master.
[the battle resumes, but even later on, Sunil manages to reach a vantage point overlooking TSE]
Sunil: It's over TSE, I have the high ground!
TSE: You MISUNDERESTIMATE my power!
Sunil: Don't try it!
[TSE leaps at Sunil, but the latter anticipates his move and promptly hacks off TSE's rather fetching Red Shoes of Power, leaving him writhing in pain on the ground, crippled and bereft of his Force abilities!]
Sunil: You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the Europhiles, not join them! You were to bring balance to PoliticalBetting.com, not leave it in Daftness!
TSE:[shouts] I HATE you!
Sunil: You were my brother, TSE. I loved you.
[Sunil, unable to bring himself to finish off poor TSE, walks away from the scene, disconsolate...
In other news, despite being a probable REMAINer I'm glad VoteLeave have been chosen for the LEAVE side - at least we'll have the grown ups - and Gove in particular - to put their case - it may make a LEAVE vote more likely, but the UK will have arrived at a better informed decision.
Interesting YouGov poll - I'm definitely warming to Osborne as next Tory leader .
The underlying story here is that Labour is winning the argument on fairness (benefit cuts plus overseas tax havens make an unappetising combination even for people right of centre), and neutralising the economic argument - the perception is that Osborne's agenda hasn't actually achieved much. I'm sure the Tories are still ahead on defence, and when the debate swings back to Trident I suspect Labour will have an uncomfortable period. But at the moment the salient issues are fairness and Europe, benefiting Labour and UKIP respectively.
Barack Obama is due in London next week. Encouraged by his host David Cameron, the US president is likely to intimate that he thinks Britain would be barmy to vote itself out of the EU. Detached from their own continent, the Brits would not find sanctuary in Washington. So much for the pro-Brexit crowd’s promise that Britain can swap Europe for the world.
Barack Obama is due in London next week. Encouraged by his host David Cameron, the US president is likely to intimate that he thinks Britain would be barmy to vote itself out of the EU. Detached from their own continent, the Brits would not find sanctuary in Washington. So much for the pro-Brexit crowd’s promise that Britain can swap Europe for the world.
Looking at the polling, it seems to me that UKIP is one of the main factors (as in the last Parliament) that prevents Labour from establishing a big lead; that Osborne would be fatal to the Conservatives if he became Leader; that Cameron is no longer an asset to the Remain campaign; and that Leave now have a fair wind behind them.
In other news, despite being a probable REMAINer I'm glad VoteLeave have been chosen for the LEAVE side - at least we'll have the grown ups - and Gove in particular - to put their case - it may make a LEAVE vote more likely, but the UK will have arrived at a better informed decision.
It's a very good article in nearly all respects and explains very well how all parties in persuit of their own agenda are guilty of hypocricy. My only small criticism is that if you really dislike prurient press intrusion like he says he does why is he sympathising with Wittingdale's girlfriend who tried to sell her story?
And though I feel Wittingdale has been treated appallingly-not least by a shabby Labour Party- it's difficult not to feel that he might benefit from the lesson he's been taught. It's easy to waft around ideas of press freedom but being at the wrong end might really drive the message home
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Looking at the polling, it seems to me that UKIP is one of the main factors (as in the last Parliament) that prevents Labour from establishing a big lead; that Osborne would be fatal to the Conservatives if he became Leader; that Cameron is no longer an asset to the Remain campaign; and that Leave now have a fair wind behind them.
I think Cameron is still an asset to Remain, but I can't deny having a little chuckle to myself last night about the Fall of Osborne.
In other news, despite being a probable REMAINer I'm glad VoteLeave have been chosen for the LEAVE side - at least we'll have the grown ups - and Gove in particular - to put their case - it may make a LEAVE vote more likely, but the UK will have arrived at a better informed decision.
why is he sympathising with Wittingdale's girlfriend who tried to sell her story?
Do we know that?
Peston says it wasn't a 'kiss & tell':
The point is that the sex worker was not the vendor of the story, and was not talking about the affair. This was no kiss and tell.
The newspapers had snaps and the testimony of a third party. But that hardly constitutes proof that Mr Whittingdale had behaved scandalously. The worst they could probably have said is that a sex worker is an unusual social partner for an MP.
Guido (I know, I know) suggests it was the sex worker behind the Osborne allegations who tried to get coverage for the story and briefed Tom Watson on it - then complained that he hadn't used Parliamentary Privilege to expose it, Peston says Watson advised the People that there wasn't a Public Interest reason to publish.....
I think Whittingdale's partner in this has been blameless (other than possibly not being candid with Whittingdale - but that's a matter between them) yet Hacked Off have delighted in smearing her name all over the press because, presumably 'the ends (getting a Tory) justify the means....
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
In other news, despite being a probable REMAINer I'm glad VoteLeave have been chosen for the LEAVE side - at least we'll have the grown ups - and Gove in particular - to put their case - it may make a LEAVE vote more likely, but the UK will have arrived at a better informed decision.
why is he sympathising with Wittingdale's girlfriend who tried to sell her story?
Do we know that?
Peston says it wasn't a 'kiss & tell':
The point is that the sex worker was not the vendor of the story, and was not talking about the affair. This was no kiss and tell.
The newspapers had snaps and the testimony of a third party. But that hardly constitutes proof that Mr Whittingdale had behaved scandalously. The worst they could probably have said is that a sex worker is an unusual social partner for an MP.
Guido (I know, I know) suggests it was the sex worker behind the Osborne allegations who tried to get coverage for the story and briefed Tom Watson on it - then complained that he hadn't used Parliamentary Privilege to expose it, Peston says Watson advised the People that there wasn't a Public Interest reason to publish.....
I think Whittingdale's partner in this has been blameless (other than possibly not being candid with Whittingdale - but that's a matter between them) yet Hacked Off have delighted in smearing her name all over the press because, presumably 'the ends (getting a Tory) justify the means....
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
If we Leave it won't make any difference who screams or shouts on here, neither Richard, Sean F, myself or John Loony will be anywhere near the negotiations. Our govt will do that, led by David Cameron as he confirmed in the house yesterday.
Now if you don't believe Cameron you have even more reason to vote Leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
Nonsense. A Conservative Government will be in charge of negotiations and I fully expect EEA-EFTA with full single market access will be at the top of the list.
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
If we Leave it won't make any difference who screams or shouts on here, neither Richard, Sean F, myself or John Loony will be anywhere near the negotiations. Our govt will do that, led by David Cameron as he confirmed in the house yesterday.
Now if you don't believe Cameron you have even more reason to vote Leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
No he won't! If Leave win, Cameron will be dead meat. Which is just as well, as we don't want these future negotiations to be fucked up and sabotaged by someone like, "call me Dave".
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
I suspect Cameron will enlist Gove in any negotiations - which would be a smart move politically, and for the negotiations.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
Tut tut tut.... Hand in your Ruby Slippers, and collect your black slip-ons. With tassels.
Once again the intellectual view on PB is probably at odds with how it is seen by the man on the street, the same could be said about lots of policies shared by the parties, however you cut it, the voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
If we Leave it won't make any difference who screams or shouts on here, neither Richard, Sean F, myself or John Loony will be anywhere near the negotiations. Our govt will do that, led by David Cameron as he confirmed in the house yesterday.
Now if you don't believe Cameron you have even more reason to vote Leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
No he won't! If Leave win, Cameron will be dead meat. Which is just as well, as we don't want these future negotiations to be fucked up and sabotaged by someone like, "call me Dave".
Ahhh but Dave said in the house yesterday he was staying on - are you suggesting he was fibbing?
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
If we Leave it won't make any difference who screams or shouts on here, neither Richard, Sean F, myself or John Loony will be anywhere near the negotiations. Our govt will do that, led by David Cameron as he confirmed in the house yesterday.
Now if you don't believe Cameron you have even more reason to vote Leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
No he won't! If Leave win, Cameron will be dead meat. Which is just as well, as we don't want these future negotiations to be fucked up and sabotaged by someone like, "call me Dave".
I tend to agree. Brexit being 'negotiated' by Cameron would be a big worry to me.
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
One does indeed. Even Nabavi and Meeks have given up trying to slap Leave on the back while driving the knife in between the ribs. JJ sits there "undecided but leaning toward leave" while doing his best to sow dissent in the leave camp and drop silken innuendo against them when he can.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
Nonsense, even in determining the leave campaign the "burn all bridges" brigade of fruitcakes, nuts and loons (let you decide which is Farage, Bone or Galloway) have been pushed to one side while the sane leavers like Cabinet Secretary Gove, and other Cabinet Ministers and attendees Whittingdale, Johnson, Villiers and Patel etc as well as Labour MPs like Stuart who are getting their voices heard.
Now not only are Gove etc the ones leading the Leave campaign but after a leave vote whom do you assume will be in the government making the decisions? Galloway or Gove?
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
Nonsense, even in determining the leave campaign the "burn all bridges" brigade of fruitcakes, nuts and loons (let you decide which is Farage, Bone or Galloway) have been pushed to one side while the sane leavers like Cabinet Secretary Gove, and other Cabinet Ministers and attendees Whittingdale, Johnson, Villiers and Patel etc as well as Labour MPs like Stuart who are getting their voices heard.
Now not only are Gove etc the ones leading the Leave campaign but after a leave vote whom do you assume will be in the government making the decisions? Galloway or Gove?
It's only nonsense if vote leave now start telling people they will not be able to control immigration with their preferred route of EEA. If that is true ...
Once again the intellectual view on PB is probably at odds with how it is seen by the man on the street, the same could be said about lots of policies shared by the parties, however you cut it, the voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice.
Except that even the Leavers on here are all in favour of the single market including the 4 freedoms.
Not much choice there.
The people can have their say in the referendum, but they will not get what they want, because what they want is impossible.
Once again the intellectual view on PB is probably at odds with how it is seen by the man on the street, the same could be said about lots of policies shared by the parties, however you cut it, the voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice.
I think that is bulls##t. The "voter in the streets" that I know actually far from seeing no difference between the parties are more likely to see one party at least as the devil incarnate in my experience. People who hate the "evil Tories" or the "irresponsible socialists" or whatever.
Far from not finding a difference between the parties, two-thirds of eligible voters and nearly 100% of voters did find a party to vote for last election.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
I suspect Cameron will enlist Gove in any negotiations - which would be a smart move politically, and for the negotiations.
I suspect if anything it'll be Gove enlisting Cameron. The only cast iron certainty in any of the possibe eventualities is that Cameron will resign immediately in the event of a LEAVE vote. When Thatcher didn't decisively win in 1990 seeminly sensible commetators were suggesting she would fight on. It doesn't happen. Once a leader loses his or her authority they are dead. Instantly
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
Nonsense, even in determining the leave campaign the "burn all bridges" brigade of fruitcakes, nuts and loons (let you decide which is Farage, Bone or Galloway) have been pushed to one side while the sane leavers like Cabinet Secretary Gove, and other Cabinet Ministers and attendees Whittingdale, Johnson, Villiers and Patel etc as well as Labour MPs like Stuart who are getting their voices heard.
Now not only are Gove etc the ones leading the Leave campaign but after a leave vote whom do you assume will be in the government making the decisions? Galloway or Gove?
It's only nonsense if vote leave now start telling people they will not be able to control immigration with their preferred route of EEA. If that is true ...
Vote Leave are saying we Take Control. They've not to my knowledge ruled either option in or out which is entirely reasonable as its not their decision to make, but it will be our decision to make once we Take Control. With the initial government prior to the next election being one likely led either by Cameron if he doesn't resign or Gove if he does.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
I suspect Cameron will enlist Gove in any negotiations - which would be a smart move politically, and for the negotiations.
I suspect if anything it'll be Gove enlisting Cameron. The only cast iron certainty in any of the possibe eventualities is that Cameron will resign immediately in the event of a LEAVE vote. When Thatcher didn't decisively win in 1990 seeminly sensible commetators were suggesting she would fight on. It doesn't happen. Once a leader loses his or her authority they are dead. Instantly
Cameron will have to quit if the vote is for Leave. It probably wouldn't be the next morning, but his position would be untenable and his authority all gone. He would be defenestrated if he did not resign.
Nonsense. A Conservative Government will be in charge of negotiations and I fully expect EEA-EFTA with full single market access will be at the top of the list.
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
You evidently have not read the posts where I explain my position. I am not a leave supporter. I will probably be a leave voter. There's a distinct difference.
The leave campaigns as they currently stand are hopeless, disjointed and messy. Time will tell if yesterday's announcement helps - I hope it will. The campaigns are not the reason I'll probably be voting leave.
I'll probably be voting leave because I think that leaving will become inevitable, and if it has to be done, best it were done now. But that doesn't stop me criticising the cracks in the walls of my new home.
You also appear to miss, as do others, frequent posts where I criticise the EU or where I agree with leavers. But never mind.
Once again the intellectual view on PB is probably at odds with how it is seen by the man on the street, the same could be said about lots of policies shared by the parties, however you cut it, the voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice.
Except that even the Leavers on here are all in favour of the single market including the 4 freedoms.
Not much choice there.
The people can have their say in the referendum, but they will not get what they want, because what they want is impossible.
The people can have their say and they will get what they vote for in the one question that is asked.
Of course other questions haven't been asked. They will have to be answered by our Parliament if we Leave. As Vote Leave is openly and honestly saying (and why Farage isn't part of them).
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
One does indeed. Even Nabavi and Meeks have given up trying to slap Leave on the back while driving the knife in between the ribs. JJ sits there "undecided but leaning toward leave" while doing his best to sow dissent in the leave camp and drop silken innuendo against them when he can.
Rubbish. I've explained my position before many times: I suggest you try to understand it. There will be many like me, and these innuendos that I am not being truthful are rather wearying.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
That is really a very silly post.
That is really a very silly and content-free reply.
Once again the intellectual view on PB is probably at odds with how it is seen by the man on the street, the same could be said about lots of policies shared by the parties, however you cut it, the voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice.
I think that is bulls##t. The "voter in the streets" that I know actually far from seeing no difference between the parties are more likely to see one party at least as the devil incarnate in my experience. People who hate the "evil Tories" or the "irresponsible socialists" or whatever.
Far from not finding a difference between the parties, two-thirds of eligible voters and nearly 100% of voters did find a party to vote for last election.
Well done for calling what I didn't say bullshit
" voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice"
If you want to vote for a party of government, that is to say one with a chance of a majority, you can vote for
the pro-EU Labour Party, or the pro-EU Conservative Party the pro-NHS Labour Party, or the pro-NHS Conservative Party the anti-Grammar School Labour Party or the anti-Grammar School Conservative Party the socially liberal Labour Party, or the socially liberal Conservative Party the statist Labour Party or the statist Conservative Party the anti-capital punishment Labour Party or the anti-capital punishment Conservative Party the pro-immigration Labour Party, or the pro-immigration Conservative Party
the Labour Party is currently unelectable, but when they get a sensible leader they will be pro-Big Business, like the Conservative Party as well.
Different parties offer these similar views for different reasons, but they are still ultimately, the same view.
On probably three quarters of issues affecting the country it makes no difference who you vote for, you will get the same policy, and on a number of issues there is no party to represent your view at all.
Its the same problem the Kippers have always had, they never want to be a party of government, they want to get us out of the EU, but to do that, they need elected representatives, and to get them you have to have policies on all sorts of things either your members don't care about, or are already better served by another party.
Surely today is a significant day in this debate to the extent we now have an official group representing Leave. Vote Leave can now explain what Leave will mean for the UK and that is the choice that people will then make in June. If, as I hope, Vote Leave make it clear that the alternative is joining the EEA and retaining access to the single market that is the basis upon which people will be voting. Conversely, if they make it clear that the priority is to restrict immigration in a way that is incompatible with the 4 freedoms and EEA membership then that is the basis on which people will vote.
It is possible, indeed probable, that some of the other groups will want to go further than Vote Leave towards the latter option. They can make those arguments but that is not the basis upon which people will have voted. The official position of Vote Leave is the position that the government will be expected to follow in the event of a Leave vote.
There will still be uncertainty. What deal will the government actually be able to get? We are mandating the government to adopt a particular negotiating position with an end objective but this is at least a bilateral negotiation, arguably much more. Vote Leave and leavers have to accept this.
OTOH Remain have to accept that the status quo is not an option that can be honestly put before the British people. The EU will continue to evolve as it has done ever since it was created. There is no final position there is a journey. I personally have never had a lot of sympathy for those that claimed this is not what we voted for in 1975 for this reason. No one ever claimed the EU was set in stone.
What is happening now is we are finally being asked if we want to continue with that journey. If we vote remain the answer is yes and we are accepting that there will be further integration, an extension of EU competences and a continuation of the current situation where so many of our laws are made by a Parliament that we form only a small and largely irrelevant part of.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I think VL can take a coherent view on that with more than brushing against that minefield. The key campaign message is "Vote Leave. Take Control". So we can leave the EU, and join the EEA. That gives control to the British people, after that point if they feel that isn't sufficient and they want a loose relationship, they can elect a government with that platform. The key decision is do the voters want the future of their country determined in London, or Brussels. Do they want those decisions to be made by people they can kick out if they do it wrong. Once that is decided, then the British People can decide over the medium term what level of relationship they are comfortable with.
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
On probably three quarters of issues affecting the country it makes no difference who you vote for, you will get the same policy, and on a number of issues there is no party to represent your view at all.
Because those aren't "issues affecting the country", those are the settled view of the nation at the moment and the parties differ on bigger questions that are more in dispute than any of those you mentioned. If the two main parties differed on absolutely everything then there would be no stability at all in the nation.
Besides the settled view today is not the settled view tomorrow. How many of those opinions have changed over the last few decades? Most of them. So you have an option to join the party that is closest to your views in the disputed areas and then try to change policy on the presently undisputed ones.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
I've moved to Remain this evening.
Our work produced our final report on what Brexit means for ourselves and the businesses we deal with.
Without access to the financial passport and the single market, there would be a cascade of damage to ourselves and the UK economy.
One of the authors of the report was an ardent leaver.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of rationalisation for a decision you'd already taken weeks ago out of your closeness to CCHQ and loyalty to the leadership.
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
That is really a very silly post.
That is really a very silly and content-free reply.
Morning all,
Going back to @TheScreamingEagles original point which seemed to be that the economic case for staying is extremely strong and so remain will win. I'm afraid I'm not so optimistic. Even if the public generally buys the economic argument (and there will be so much noise in next two months that's not a given) there's still many a slip. GOTV/immigration might win it for Leave despite the majority agreeing with TheScreamingEagles and his points.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I think VL can take a coherent view on that with more than brushing against that minefield. The key campaign message is "Vote Leave. Take Control". So we can leave the EU, and join the EEA. That gives control to the British people, after that point if they feel that isn't sufficient and they want a loose relationship, they can elect a government with that platform. The key decision is do the voters want the future of their country determined in London, or Brussels. Do they want those decisions to be made by people they can kick out if they do it wrong. Once that is decided, then the British People can decide over the medium term what level of relationship they are comfortable with.
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
We really need Gove to come to the fore now. He has the intellectual clarity and precision that is required to spell out the options clearly. The key for me is that Remain is not a vote for the status quo. If Leave can win that argument they can win. If they don't I still expect the undecided to opt for what they think is the safer option.
Dr. Foxinsox, women being both more risk averse and likelier to vote than men is one of the reasons I remain, ahem, steadfast in thinking Remain will end up winning by a fair margin.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I think VL can take a coherent view on that with more than brushing against that minefield. The key campaign message is "Vote Leave. Take Control". So we can leave the EU, and join the EEA. That gives control to the British people, after that point if they feel that isn't sufficient and they want a loose relationship, they can elect a government with that platform. The key decision is do the voters want the future of their country determined in London, or Brussels. Do they want those decisions to be made by people they can kick out if they do it wrong. Once that is decided, then the British People can decide over the medium term what level of relationship they are comfortable with.
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
Surely today is a significant day in this debate to the extent we now have an official group representing Leave. Vote Leave can now explain what Leave will mean for the UK and that is the choice that people will then make in June. If, as I hope, Vote Leave make it clear that the alternative is joining the EEA and retaining access to the single market that is the basis upon which people will be voting. Conversely, if they make it clear that the priority is to restrict immigration in a way that is incompatible with the 4 freedoms and EEA membership then that is the basis on which people will vote.
It is possible, indeed probable, that some of the other groups will want to go further than Vote Leave towards the latter option. They can make those arguments but that is not the basis upon which people will have voted. The official position of Vote Leave is the position that the government will be expected to follow in the event of a Leave vote.
There will still be uncertainty. What deal will the government actually be able to get? We are mandating the government to adopt a particular negotiating position with an end objective but this is at least a bilateral negotiation, arguably much more. Vote Leave and leavers have to accept this.
OTOH Remain have to accept that the status quo is not an option that can be honestly put before the British people. The EU will continue to evolve as it has done ever since it was created. There is no final position there is a journey. I personally have never had a lot of sympathy for those that claimed this is not what we voted for in 1975 for this reason. No one ever claimed the EU was set in stone.
What is happening now is we are finally being asked if we want to continue with that journey. If we vote remain the answer is yes and we are accepting that there will be further integration, an extension of EU competences and a continuation of the current situation where so many of our laws are made by a Parliament that we form only a small and largely irrelevant part of.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I think VL can take a coherent view on that with more than brushing against that minefield. The key campaign message is "Vote Leave. Take Control". So we can leave the EU, and join the EEA. That gives control to the British people, after that point if they feel that isn't sufficient and they want a loose relationship, they can elect a government with that platform. The key decision is do the voters want the future of their country determined in London, or Brussels. Do they want those decisions to be made by people they can kick out if they do it wrong. Once that is decided, then the British People can decide over the medium term what level of relationship they are comfortable with.
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
We really need Gove to come to the fore now. He has the intellectual clarity and precision that is required to spell out the options clearly. The key for me is that Remain is not a vote for the status quo. If Leave can win that argument they can win. If they don't I still expect the undecided to opt for what they think is the safer option.
Yes - thank goodness Vote Leave got the gig - but we do need to see a coherent vision of which Leave we should be voting for - doing that and selling 'Remain = change/uncertainty' is going to be challenging.
GOTV/immigration might win it for Leave despite the majority agreeing with TheScreamingEagles and his points.
I was with you until the last sentence which seems a rather odd thing to say. If Leave win, then by definition the majority agreed with them, if they lose, it didn't. The public will no doubt have all sorts of personal concerns either pro or anti the EU which in their own minds they might rank above or below the economic case, or they might simply shrug and stay on the sofa. All we have to go on is the voting boxes.
Lets not get into another pointless debate trying to crystal ball gaze the notional votes of people who couldn't be bothered to express a preference. In previous studies following up people that didn't vote, and pressing them for a preference, the majority view (by far) was don't know or don't care.
'That is really a very silly and content-free reply'
' Sigh '
You are falling into the same trap as some others of reading this site and developing an absurdly exaggerated view of its significance. The idea that posters on this site are going to be determining the UK's relationship with the EU is just laughable.
Other posters have already explained to you what is going to happen. In the event of a Leave vote, the prime minister, government and parliament will negotiate our exit. Successive governments may refine the position further if elected on a mandate to do so.
Ultimately it will be the voters who decide, not some cabal of cyber-warriors.
My own instinct is that the UK may well find it is content with an EEA/EFTA style arrangement, as it approximates quite well to what the median position on 'Europe' is - free trade but no desire for political integration.
The comments tonight are very reminiscent of The Day The Polls Turned last year
Nope. Remain will win.
Leave sympathisers including AndyJS, you(?), SeanT, AnneJGP, Philip Thompson, Stodge and Cyclefree *still* aren't 100% sure they'll vote Leave, and this is before the campaign has even begun.
Those who aren't sure abstain, or default to the status quo, on the day.
Without them, Leave have no chance.
Cameron's deal might be crap, but Leave are giving no assurances that we will retain what we already have.
No surprise whatsoever. A lot of
So a straw man.
Richard and Robert will have no say in what happens after a leave vote - after all, Richard admits he's been working on leaving for years and has had sweet fa effect that I can see.
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
I suspect Cameron will enlist Gove in any negotiations - which would be a smart move politically, and for the negotiations.
I suspect if anything it'll be Gove enlisting Cameron. The only cast iron certainty in any of the possibe eventualities is that Cameron will resign immediately in the event of a LEAVE vote. When Thatcher didn't decisively win in 1990 seeminly sensible commetators were suggesting she would fight on. It doesn't happen. Once a leader loses his or her authority they are dead. Instantly
Cameron will have to quit if the vote is for Leave. It probably wouldn't be the next morning, but his position would be untenable and his authority all gone. He would be defenestrated if he did not resign.
I think he would announce it at the same time the result is announced. it's not surprising that that so many Tory politicians on the Leave side are peddling the myth that he'll stay on. Why would they want to advertise that their popular leader will be out with the bathwater if they win?
Nonsense. A Conservative Government will be in charge of negotiations and I fully expect EEA-EFTA with full single market access will be at the top of the list.
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
You evidently have not read the posts where I explain my position. I am not a leave supporter. I will probably be a leave voter. There's a distinct difference.
The leave campaigns as they currently stand are hopeless, disjointed and messy. Time will tell if yesterday's announcement helps - I hope it will. The campaigns are not the reason I'll probably be voting leave.
I'll probably be voting leave because I think that leaving will become inevitable, and if it has to be done, best it were done now. But that doesn't stop me criticising the cracks in the walls of my new home.
You also appear to miss, as do others, frequent posts where I criticise the EU or where I agree with leavers. But never mind.
Would you care to refer me to those posts?
I haven't seen them.
It's fine to criticise the approach of the Leave campaign - as I have done, in a letter direct to the Chief Executive of Vote Leave - but that has to be balanced by your alternative suggestion, otherwise you are just being fatally defeatist which calls your own motives into question.
Put it this way: these nuances of your argument aren't exactly obvious.
Cameron will have to quit if the vote is for Leave. It probably wouldn't be the next morning, but his position would be untenable and his authority all gone. He would be defenestrated if he did not resign.
I think he would announce it at the same time the result is announced. it's not surprising that that so many Tory politicians on the Leave side are peddling the myth that he'll stay on. Why would they want to advertise that their popular leader will be out with the bathwater if they win?
He's going either way ... it's not like he'll still be there at the next General Election if we vote Remain either.
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
The big question today is how the antiEU Corbyn explains his Pauline conversion to REMAIN. Was there a bright light and a voice in his head?
As others have pointed out - its the only way he can REMAIN as Labour Leader......
Edit - Keiran Pedley tweeted: I suspect the EU 'journey' that Jeremy Corbyn has been on is that he knew his leadership of Labour was finished if he backed Leave
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
I think he would announce it at the same time the result is announced. it's not surprising that that so many Tory politicians on the Leave side are peddling the myth that he'll stay on. Why would they want to advertise that their popular leader will be out with the bathwater if they win?
Douglas Carswell asked him that exact question in PMQ's yesterday, and he said "Yes".
Some people thought that was a fatuous question, but it seems to have a lot of relevance already.
The Prime Minister told parliament, unequivocally, in a one word answer, that he will stay on and manage events should "Leave" be chose by the voters. You might call him a liar (I have plenty of time) but you can't blame Tories for believing what their leader told parliament.
I can see an awkward period akin to Brown Blair, where Cameron does the set pieces and no foreign/EU stuff. Someone from Leave such as Gove fronts on post referendum negotiations.
If Remain wins, then a big reshuffle to knit the Party back together. Either way, be very surprised if Cameron is leader on January 1 2018
Cameron will have to quit if the vote is for Leave. It probably wouldn't be the next morning, but his position would be untenable and his authority all gone. He would be defenestrated if he did not resign.
I think he would announce it at the same time the result is announced. it's not surprising that that so many Tory politicians on the Leave side are peddling the myth that he'll stay on. Why would they want to advertise that their popular leader will be out with the bathwater if they win?
He's going either way ... it's not like he'll still be there at the next General Election if we vote Remain either.
LEAVE are about to get a boost today. Corbyn is making a major speech on behalf of REMAIN
Jeremy Corbyn will today make his first major intervention in the EU referendum debate with a speech outlining the "socialist case" for remaining in.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
Nonsense. A Conservative Government will be in charge of negotiations and I fully expect EEA-EFTA with full single market access will be at the top of the list.
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
You evidently have not read the posts where I explain my position. I am not a leave supporter. I will probably be a leave voter. There's a distinct difference.
The leave campaigns as they currently stand are hopeless, disjointed and messy. Time will tell if yesterday's announcement helps - I hope it will. The campaigns are not the reason I'll probably be voting leave.
I'll probably be voting leave because I think that leaving will become inevitable, and if it has to be done, best it were done now. But that doesn't stop me criticising the cracks in the walls of my new home.
You also appear to miss, as do others, frequent posts where I criticise the EU or where I agree with leavers. But never mind.
Would you care to refer me to those posts?
I haven't seen them.
It's fine to criticise the approach of the Leave campaign - as I have done, in a letter direct to the Chief Executive of Vote Leave - but that has to be balanced by your alternative suggestion, otherwise you are just being fatally defeatist which calls your own motives into question.
Put it this way: these nuances of your argument aren't exactly obvious.
You've almost certainly seen them, but seem to have disregarded them. In future I will put them in 48-pt, bold letters so you and others might notice them.
I'm not going searching; if you don't believe me (and that would say much about you), read through my output. But I can repeat a big one: I don't trust the EU wrt further integration. If I did, I would be likely to vote remain. I have said this many, many times. I have also stressed my desire for a proper referendum as long as I've been on PB, and I'm very strongly against the UK joining the Euro.
Hardly fertile ground for me to be a remainer.
As for 'calling my motives into question'. Lol.
I must stress again I am not a leave supporter: I am probably going to be a leave voter. In the same way the fact I voted Conservative at the GE and Labour at the locals because they were the best candidates does not make me a 'supporter' of either party.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
I think VL can take a coherent view on that with more than brushing against that minefield. The key campaign message is "Vote Leave. Take Control". So we can leave the EU, and join the EEA. That gives control to the British people, after that point if they feel that isn't sufficient and they want a loose relationship, they can elect a government with that platform. The key decision is do the voters want the future of their country determined in London, or Brussels. Do they want those decisions to be made by people they can kick out if they do it wrong. Once that is decided, then the British People can decide over the medium term what level of relationship they are comfortable with.
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
We really need Gove to come to the fore now. He has the intellectual clarity and precision that is required to spell out the options clearly. The key for me is that Remain is not a vote for the status quo. If Leave can win that argument they can win. If they don't I still expect the undecided to opt for what they think is the safer option.
Yes - thank goodness Vote Leave got the gig - but we do need to see a coherent vision of which Leave we should be voting for - doing that and selling 'Remain = change/uncertainty' is going to be challenging.
Yes I agree 'thank goodness for Gove' in that he will present what people will accept as a definitive case for Leave but If you are expecting it to be persuasive I think you are going to be disappointed.
I used to read his columns in the Times and he is a neocon with the fervour of Wolfowitz. He was a big fan of Bush and wrote passionately why we should go into Iraq. He even wrote an article ' I can't hide my feelings any longer. I love Tony'
His objection to the EU is based on this desire to be close to the right in the US and has little to do with the issues that seem to be motivating Leavers on here
Comments
Bach, Beethoven, Wagner cover it all, really.
However there is one wildcard that could save the Tories - a new leader who will be able to make a completely fresh start.
If things carried on on the current track they would be in desperate trouble. But that won't happen. The EU ref will come and go, Cameron will go at some point and a new leader will come in.
The nearer the new leader starts to 2020 the better chance they will have - in order to maximise their bounce.
The other three are giants, bestriding the whole corpus of Western music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBqwAGj5fDA&nohtml5=False
TIn ear, or trying to push the UK to Leave ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vixvXykstxQ
http://www.tedgrant.org/archive/grant/images/gallery/wallposters copy.jpg
Sunil: You have allowed this Europhile Chancellor to twist your mind, until now, until now you've become the very thing you swore to destroy.
TSE: Don't lecture me, Sunil! I see through the lies of the LEAVE campaign. I do not fear the European Union as you do. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire!
Sunil: Your new Empire?
TSE: Don't make me MODERATE you.
Sunil: TSE, my allegiance is to the
RepublicMonarchy, to democracy!TSE: If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
Sunil: [realizing that TSE is consumed by evil and there's no reasoning with him anymore] Only a Europhile deals in absolutes.
[draws his lightsaber] I will do what I must!
TSE: You will try!
[draws his own lightsaber and confronts Sunil!]
[later during a pause in the battle]
Sunil: I have failed you, TSE. I have failed you.
TSE: I should have known the LEAVERS were plotting to take over. Chancellor Osborne has showed me the true ways of the Force.
Sunil: TSE, Chancellor Osborne is evil! The Europhiles are evil. The Daft Side of the Force is an evil presence.
TSE: From my point of view, it is the LEAVERS who are evil.
Sunil: Well, then you really are lost!
TSE: [raises his lightsaber] This is the end for you... my former master.
[the battle resumes, but even later on, Sunil manages to reach a vantage point overlooking TSE]
Sunil: It's over TSE, I have the high ground!
TSE: You MISUNDERESTIMATE my power!
Sunil: Don't try it!
[TSE leaps at Sunil, but the latter anticipates his move and promptly hacks off TSE's rather fetching Red Shoes of Power, leaving him writhing in pain on the ground, crippled and bereft of his Force abilities!]
Sunil: You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the Europhiles, not join them! You were to bring balance to PoliticalBetting.com, not leave it in Daftness!
TSE: [shouts] I HATE you!
Sunil: You were my brother, TSE. I loved you.
[Sunil, unable to bring himself to finish off poor TSE, walks away from the scene, disconsolate...
To Be Continued....]
Hacked Off have come full circle. They are now just as bad as those they campaign against.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/04/13/whittingdale-story-destroys-the-last-vestiges-of-hacked-off
In other news, despite being a probable REMAINer I'm glad VoteLeave have been chosen for the LEAVE side - at least we'll have the grown ups - and Gove in particular - to put their case - it may make a LEAVE vote more likely, but the UK will have arrived at a better informed decision.
The underlying story here is that Labour is winning the argument on fairness (benefit cuts plus overseas tax havens make an unappetising combination even for people right of centre), and neutralising the economic argument - the perception is that Osborne's agenda hasn't actually achieved much. I'm sure the Tories are still ahead on defence, and when the debate swings back to Trident I suspect Labour will have an uncomfortable period. But at the moment the salient issues are fairness and Europe, benefiting Labour and UKIP respectively.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf13ab80-0158-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html#ixzz45m1tKlZI
And though I feel Wittingdale has been treated appallingly-not least by a shabby Labour Party- it's difficult not to feel that he might benefit from the lesson he's been taught. It's easy to waft around ideas of press freedom but being at the wrong end might really drive the message home
You know perfectly well that consistent Leavers like Richard Tyndall, and Robert Smithson favour EFTA-EEA - which retain full single market access - for precisely this reason.
So a straw man.
It's others I worry about.
Just desserts.
Peston says it wasn't a 'kiss & tell':
The point is that the sex worker was not the vendor of the story, and was not talking about the affair. This was no kiss and tell.
The newspapers had snaps and the testimony of a third party. But that hardly constitutes proof that Mr Whittingdale had behaved scandalously. The worst they could probably have said is that a sex worker is an unusual social partner for an MP.
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1603441483313924
Guido (I know, I know) suggests it was the sex worker behind the Osborne allegations who tried to get coverage for the story and briefed Tom Watson on it - then complained that he hadn't used Parliamentary Privilege to expose it, Peston says Watson advised the People that there wasn't a Public Interest reason to publish.....
I think Whittingdale's partner in this has been blameless (other than possibly not being candid with Whittingdale - but that's a matter between them) yet Hacked Off have delighted in smearing her name all over the press because, presumably 'the ends (getting a Tory) justify the means....
After a leave vote, it'll be the people who scream loudest who have the most effect, and my fear is that it will most likely be the burn-all-the-bridges people. The more moderate and reasoned people such as yourself won't stand a chance of getting their voices heard.
And all because of the big lie at the heart of leave.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-03-05/jeremy-corbyn-accused-of-trying-to-hide-eurosceptic-past/
Now if you don't believe Cameron you have even more reason to vote Leave.
But please, can we once and for all put to bed this nonsense that if we Leave a squad of fruitcake, xenophobic, isolationist nutjobs will be despatched to Brussels. They won;t, it will be the PM.
Corbyn to outline case for EU 'In' vote.
Cameron has outlined case for EU 'In' vote.
So has whats his name for the L/Dems.
And the Greens.
No wonder most of the electorate think that most politicians are in the same boat, and that theres no real difference between them.
Luke 15:7
Do you know I haven't seen you post a *single* post with any positive arguments for Leave and the leave campaign since you've started, despite professing to be a Leave supporter?
One wonders.
The Labour leader's speech later follows repeated calls from within his own party to make a more active contribution to the EU debate.
Although Mr Corbyn has been clear that Labour is firmly in favour of an 'In' vote, he had a strongly eurosceptic voting record in his time as a backbencher and he backed pulling out of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/news/73787/jeremy-corbyn-make-socialist-case-eu-membership
The reasons that the different leaders favour Remain could hardly be more different.
Cameron favours it on the basis of trade and his opt outs.
Corbyn and Bennett because of workers protections and environmental joint action
The LibDems because they are an internationalist party that believes that multilateral institutions are a progressive force in the world.
Sturgeon because she sees Europe rather than the UK as the best safeguard for Scotlands future.
Hardly all politicians being the same.
It's a real stay together for the kids position.
Now not only are Gove etc the ones leading the Leave campaign but after a leave vote whom do you assume will be in the government making the decisions? Galloway or Gove?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/should-we-scrap-benefits-and-pay-everyone-100-a-week-whether-they-work-or-not
Not much choice there.
The people can have their say in the referendum, but they will not get what they want, because what they want is impossible.
Far from not finding a difference between the parties, two-thirds of eligible voters and nearly 100% of voters did find a party to vote for last election.
The leave campaigns as they currently stand are hopeless, disjointed and messy. Time will tell if yesterday's announcement helps - I hope it will. The campaigns are not the reason I'll probably be voting leave.
I'll probably be voting leave because I think that leaving will become inevitable, and if it has to be done, best it were done now. But that doesn't stop me criticising the cracks in the walls of my new home.
You also appear to miss, as do others, frequent posts where I criticise the EU or where I agree with leavers. But never mind.
Ahhh but Dave said in the house yesterday he was staying on - are you suggesting he was fibbing?
Of course other questions haven't been asked. They will have to be answered by our Parliament if we Leave. As Vote Leave is openly and honestly saying (and why Farage isn't part of them).
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7074097/Left-wing-MPs-plotted-to-expose-me-John-Whittingdale-tells-pals-of-prostitute-smear-campaign.html
" voters in the streets feels they have no choice. No choice for lots of different reasons is still no choice"
If you want to vote for a party of government, that is to say one with a chance of a majority, you can vote for
the pro-EU Labour Party, or the pro-EU Conservative Party
the pro-NHS Labour Party, or the pro-NHS Conservative Party
the anti-Grammar School Labour Party or the anti-Grammar School Conservative Party
the socially liberal Labour Party, or the socially liberal Conservative Party
the statist Labour Party or the statist Conservative Party
the anti-capital punishment Labour Party or the anti-capital punishment Conservative Party
the pro-immigration Labour Party, or the pro-immigration Conservative Party
the Labour Party is currently unelectable, but when they get a sensible leader they will be pro-Big Business, like the Conservative Party as well.
Different parties offer these similar views for different reasons, but they are still ultimately, the same view.
On probably three quarters of issues affecting the country it makes no difference who you vote for, you will get the same policy, and on a number of issues there is no party to represent your view at all.
Its the same problem the Kippers have always had, they never want to be a party of government, they want to get us out of the EU, but to do that, they need elected representatives, and to get them you have to have policies on all sorts of things either your members don't care about, or are already better served by another party.
It is possible, indeed probable, that some of the other groups will want to go further than Vote Leave towards the latter option. They can make those arguments but that is not the basis upon which people will have voted. The official position of Vote Leave is the position that the government will be expected to follow in the event of a Leave vote.
There will still be uncertainty. What deal will the government actually be able to get? We are mandating the government to adopt a particular negotiating position with an end objective but this is at least a bilateral negotiation, arguably much more. Vote Leave and leavers have to accept this.
OTOH Remain have to accept that the status quo is not an option that can be honestly put before the British people. The EU will continue to evolve as it has done ever since it was created. There is no final position there is a journey. I personally have never had a lot of sympathy for those that claimed this is not what we voted for in 1975 for this reason. No one ever claimed the EU was set in stone.
What is happening now is we are finally being asked if we want to continue with that journey. If we vote remain the answer is yes and we are accepting that there will be further integration, an extension of EU competences and a continuation of the current situation where so many of our laws are made by a Parliament that we form only a small and largely irrelevant part of.
I do not want to go on that journey. I want us to step back, to regain more control of our own affairs but also retain the single passport and access to the single market. I think that is eminently achievable and will result in us having a better relationship with the EU than we have had for the last 20 years.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/04/david-cameron-s-powers-wane-he-will-struggle-secure-legacy-he-wants
https://www.unison.org.uk/news/press-release/2016/04/unison-to-campaign-for-the-uk-to-stay-in-europe/#.Vw46JAV2yjs.twitter
Its a coherent message, and it's hard to oppose without sounding like you don't trust the voters with their own destiny, and that you don't believe in democracy.
Besides the settled view today is not the settled view tomorrow. How many of those opinions have changed over the last few decades? Most of them. So you have an option to join the party that is closest to your views in the disputed areas and then try to change policy on the presently undisputed ones.
Going back to @TheScreamingEagles original point which seemed to be that the economic case for staying is extremely strong and so remain will win. I'm afraid I'm not so optimistic. Even if the public generally buys the economic argument (and there will be so much noise in next two months that's not a given) there's still many a slip. GOTV/immigration might win it for Leave despite the majority agreeing with TheScreamingEagles and his points.
Dr. Foxinsox, women being both more risk averse and likelier to vote than men is one of the reasons I remain, ahem, steadfast in thinking Remain will end up winning by a fair margin.
IIRC immigration is the biggest issue for 16% of Leavers. Sovereignty and borders has the largest slice.
Lets not get into another pointless debate trying to crystal ball gaze the notional votes of people who couldn't be bothered to express a preference. In previous studies following up people that didn't vote, and pressing them for a preference, the majority view (by far) was don't know or don't care.
'That is really a very silly and content-free reply'
' Sigh '
You are falling into the same trap as some others of reading this site and developing an absurdly exaggerated view of its significance. The idea that posters on this site are going to be determining the UK's relationship with the EU is just laughable.
Other posters have already explained to you what is going to happen. In the event of a Leave vote, the prime minister, government and parliament will negotiate our exit. Successive governments may refine the position further if elected on a mandate to do so.
Ultimately it will be the voters who decide, not some cabal of cyber-warriors.
My own instinct is that the UK may well find it is content with an EEA/EFTA style arrangement, as it approximates quite well to what the median position on 'Europe' is - free trade but no desire for political integration.
I haven't seen them.
It's fine to criticise the approach of the Leave campaign - as I have done, in a letter direct to the Chief Executive of Vote Leave - but that has to be balanced by your alternative suggestion, otherwise you are just being fatally defeatist which calls your own motives into question.
Put it this way: these nuances of your argument aren't exactly obvious.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-36041059
Parkrun event has been called off after a parish council wanted to charge a fee. So, no fees paid, no exercise done.
Edit - Keiran Pedley tweeted: I suspect the EU 'journey' that Jeremy Corbyn has been on is that he knew his leadership of Labour was finished if he backed Leave
Some people thought that was a fatuous question, but it seems to have a lot of relevance already.
The Prime Minister told parliament, unequivocally, in a one word answer, that he will stay on and manage events should "Leave" be chose by the voters. You might call him a liar (I have plenty of time) but you can't blame Tories for believing what their leader told parliament.
If Remain wins, then a big reshuffle to knit the Party back together. Either way, be very surprised if Cameron is leader on January 1 2018
He clearly doesn't believe in Remain and is flanneling. He's got no option here so better to just do his duty, then hide
Willie Gallacher (Communist, West Fife) (1881-1965)
George Hardie (Labour, Glasgow Springburn) (1873-1937)
James Maxton (I.L.P., Glasgow Bridgeton) (1885-1946)
Alfred Salter (Labour, Bermondsey West) (1873-1945)
Rev. Campbell Stephen (I.L.P., Glasgow Camlachie) (1884-1947)
and the Tellers for the Noes were:
John McGovern (I.L.P., Glasgow Shettleston) (1887-1968)
George Buchanan (I.L.P., Glasgow Gorbals) (1890-1955)
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1936/dec/12/his-majestys-declaration-of-abdication
I'm not going searching; if you don't believe me (and that would say much about you), read through my output. But I can repeat a big one: I don't trust the EU wrt further integration. If I did, I would be likely to vote remain. I have said this many, many times. I have also stressed my desire for a proper referendum as long as I've been on PB, and I'm very strongly against the UK joining the Euro.
Hardly fertile ground for me to be a remainer.
As for 'calling my motives into question'. Lol.
I must stress again I am not a leave supporter: I am probably going to be a leave voter. In the same way the fact I voted Conservative at the GE and Labour at the locals because they were the best candidates does not make me a 'supporter' of either party.
A ridiculously convoluted benefits system keeps a lot of people in work, as do all the associated compliance regimes.
It would almost certainly act as a pull factor for the world and it's mother from other countries as well.
If I remember correctly, this 'benefit' was to be accompanied by the complete abolition of tax allowances when suggested by the Greens.
Far better to work on an idea that abolishes or enormously reduces income tax.
Good call.
I used to read his columns in the Times and he is a neocon with the fervour of Wolfowitz. He was a big fan of Bush and wrote passionately why we should go into Iraq. He even wrote an article ' I can't hide my feelings any longer. I love Tony'
His objection to the EU is based on this desire to be close to the right in the US and has little to do with the issues that seem to be motivating Leavers on here
I have just been pondering if I can teach a Markov Chain Classifier to distinguish pro and anti EU posting