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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, T
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB Polling Matters TV Show on BREXIT turnout, Trump and how to spread bet on politics
This week Keiran Pedley is on holiday so I took the chair for the first time to host the programme which turned out to be quite lively.
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http://order-order.com/2016/04/13/pienaar-new-bbc-deputy-pol-ed/
Will we see crossover by the time HRC wins though? Should just about at this rate.
I'm still waiting from the pb Universe for a good reason why someone (or company) would invest offshore other than being a criminal laundering cash or a tax avoider? This is entirely a selfish request. As a UK resident I need to put some money in a fund with low management costs and offers good returns. Simple links would be appreciated. Thank you in advance.
I've thought for quite a while that I am a convinced Leaver. Yesterday I realised that actually my head is a Don't Know.
It's only my heart that says Leave, and the only reason is that we were taken in on a lie. I realised this when someone posted on here a comment about the Sir Edward Heath interview admitting that he lied.
But that was then, this is now. Politicians always seem to have some subterfuge or other even if it doesn't amount to an outright lie. We are where we are, and my head doesn't know what would be the best route to take.
For starters, I am ignoring all the propaganda & unpleasant personalities on both sides.
Sir Edward left a legacy of poison for his cherished project, I'm afraid.
"Be Leave" are listed as a supporting group in the submission. Who knew that our own Sunil was so involved?
Unless you count Andrew "Thatcher's confidante" Neil.
Or Laura "offered job as Cameron's spin doctor" Kuenssberg.
Or James "went to Eton with Cameron" Landale.
Or Nick "head of Tory society at university" Robinson.
Neil is most likely right of centre, but nobody thinks he doesn't give Tories a massive hard time...
Kuenssberg who offered advice to Team Corbyn...
Landale has been booted for some strange reason (too Tory?) from politics job, hence why he has a replacement.
Robinson offered job by Ed Miliband (as was Pienaar).
Newsnight Team...lefty, lefty, lefty, lefty, lefty, lefty...every single one of them since Paxman went. More Guardian than the Guardian these days. Chance to replace a left, offered to Sun guy, gets veto'ed, lets go for the Guardian guy.
If I want to invest in Bolivian shares, or Iranian shares, or North Korean debt (yes it exists, no they're not keeping up on their interest payments), then surely that is my business.
Of course, if people invest abroad, and have taxable income, and fail to declare it, that is a criminal offence and should be severely punished. But the government, simply, should not be in the business of banning things, simply because you don't understand why someone would want to do something.
oh and Mr Pienaar was being openly talked about joining Labour as its head of comms (either Brown or Ed Miliband - I forget which).
And Kuenssberg "offering advice" to Team Corbyn.....please. It's kind of political journos jobs to talk to the party spin doctors. There are various reports/pictures of Nick Robinson having dinner with Cameron's press staff, if you really want to go down that route.
Berlin is a fascinating and beautiful city. Hard to believe the horrors that lie buried.
Precisely the reverse happens in other kinds of organisations, of course.
https://twitter.com/WDFx2EU/status/720161795231485952
They'd have to pay really well, mind.
Cameron was at his terrible and cynical worst when he said millions invest offshore. More like 99% of folk are clueless about offshore funds, so he can say what he likes.
At it's best Cameron's family wealth was made by enticing funds from investors to avoid exchange controls. At its worse, it was fund a designed to attract monies from criminal and tax avoiders. Whichever, I wouldn't be too proud about it.
To try and persuade superdelegates to switch to Sanders, democratic voters would need a list of them plus contact information.
Here it is -
superdelegatelist.com
(Actually, with the "avoid drugs, m'kay" bill they are heading down that route already.)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3537402/People-streets-England-know-celebrity-love-cheat.html
What you have found there....4/5th don't use twitter...
The problem with getting people to show their tax returns is that we still only see what they are prepared to show the state.
Cameron really has shown us what he wants to show us.
For the US segment, Trump getting the nomination depends on 5 unknowns:
1. Pennsylvania Unpledged Delegates.
2. Indiana
3. Montana
4. Washington
5. California
Trump can afford to underperform and lose only in 2 out of those 5.
If I think that shares in Singapore are going to go up in value so I invest in Singapore shares which am I: criminal or a tax avoider?
Besides it makes perfect sense (especially if saving for the long term eg pensions) to have a diverse portfolio of investments.
"I invest in Singapore shares which am I: criminal or a tax avoider?"
Both. Obv.
The law of diminishing returns was probably designed for red wine.
Easier said than done mind. I've been know to demolish a great bottle of wine in my time. 50 mins is slow.
Let's just imagine for a second that I wanted to set up a web of companies, for funneling billions of pounds of money.
Would I:
(a) have companies that had directors for exactly one day before being transferred to someone else
or
(b) simple generate a fake name at a PO Box (or a foreign address) for the director
A is evidence that the 788-790 Finchley Road was a factory for making off the shelf private companies. The only reason a firm would have a director for a day before being sold was if it was being used to simplify business creation.
Go look at the addresses used by any of the big company creation businesses - Paramount Formations, Ltd Companies Ltd, etc. You know what they all have at their address: yes, lots of businesses that have a director for a day before changing owner. It's not evidence of fraud: it's evidence that 788-790 Finchley Road was used for a company formation service.
As a matter of interest, what benefit would someone dodgy have in having 'directors for a day'? It makes no sense, their name is still on the company docs.
If I were doing fraudulent shit (and that's a technical term), I'd go for B. Why? Because there is basically no documentation required for being registered as a director of a business. Jose Smith of PO Box 232a in - ohh..... - Zagreb, would be essentially untraceable, and would be completely legal, and would comprehensively hide true beneficial ownership.
I can invest in Singapore shares through UK investment funds- I can spend all day researching and choose the best Singapore based investment funds looking at their returns and management costs. There are gazillions of UK based funds investing in whatever you want- Singapore being one.
If I was to invest in a Singapore single company on their stock market I would have to meet their requirements, and most likely demonstrate some kind off residency.
Or I could invest in an offshore fund specialising in Singapore (or Singapore based)- and pay a higher management charge, and most likely get lower returns.
But if you know some Singapore funds that have great returns and low management costs give me the link. I'm happy to diversify.
I'm sorry, but the decisions should - as much as possible - be left to the individual. Government oversight should be minimal.
If I want to invest in Bolivian shares, or Iranian shares, or North Korean debt (yes it exists, no they're not keeping up on their interest payments), then surely that is my business.
Of course, if people invest abroad, and have taxable income, and fail to declare it, that is a criminal offence and should be severely punished. But the government, simply, should not be in the business of banning things, simply because you don't understand why someone would want to do something.
You are being utterly absurd.
If I think that shares in Singapore are going to go up in value so I invest in Singapore shares which am I: criminal or a tax avoider?
Besides it makes perfect sense (especially if saving for the long term eg pensions) to have a diverse portfolio of investments.
Didn't notice a 'Holocaust' Museum. In my 767-page Encyclopedia of World War Two (Secker & Warburg, 1978) there's no mention of a 'Holocaust' in any case.
Odd that...
On the topic of Liverpool, smart-alec, some of them actually claim the alien Jews who where interned by this country in the camp on its outskirts, were "Holocaust victims." Go figure...
I laid off around half of my Ryan POTUS position at between 40-100
I'm not tempted to lay the rest off at current odds.
Anyway, given the remaining primaries seem quite predicable (and are priced into the market) now, I've greened out for just-about five figures on Hillary/Sanders/Trump/Cruz/Kasich, with a mid 5 figure payout on all the possible GOP non-runners and low six figures on Paul Ryan. I'm pretty pleased with that and I'm calling it a day.
FWIW, IMO, the GOP odds should be something like; (betfair in brackets)
Trump 60% (50%)
Cruz 30% (33%)
Kasich 4% (7.5%)
Ryan 2% (0.7%)
Other 4%
And POTUS;
Hillary 75% (66%)
Sanders 2.5% (6%)
Biden 0.5% (1%)
Trump 10% (12.5%)
Cruz 7% (7%)
Kasich 2% (2.5%)
Ryan 1% (0.5%)
Other 2%
If there is value in the current odds it's probably in laying POTUS sanders and/or backing POTUS hillary.
I'm not playing though, I've cashed out. Good luck to those who continue to bet on this crazy game.
If you want to invest offshore there are plenty of UK funds that will do it. My Hargreaves - Lansdowne ISA lists plenty, and it is possible to buy individual foreign shares too on some exchanges. There must be other reasons for people to move money offshore.
Personally I like to choose my own shares so that I can avoid unethical companies rather than go with Trusts. It also reduces the amount paid in charges, but each to their own.
This is his testimony about the war- he is obviously a serial fantasist. I'll let him know next time I see him
https://soundcloud.com/parko58/edited-interview-with-jan
Eastern and Central Europe are full of ghosts.
He said he was off his tree for three full days and saw none of the historic sights.
No more discussion on holocaust denial - you know the rules Rod
Berlin is a weird and wonderful place. You can take the S bahn to Wannsee and be on a delightful city beach, looking at the house where the extermination of European Jewry was planned.
If you go into the Inner Courtyard of Surrey County Council's HQ in Kingston, you can see the holes in the brickwork where the building was hit by a V1 in 1944.
My father told me that was the most terrifying time of his life - he had come back to London with my grandparents in 1943. It was the sheer randomness of the V1 and V2 strikes. He told me there was some warning of the V1 when the rocket engine stopped but with the V2 there was no warning at all.
Elmers End bus garage was hit by a V1 on 18th July 1944 when a V1 flew in through the open doors killing 16 staff. The garage was closed in 1986 and is now a housing estate with no sign of what it was - the memorial with the names of the dead bus drivers and crew was also taken away which was sad.
Jeremy Corbyn failed to declare a third pension on his HMRC tax form, it has emerged, as he refused to disclose documents regarding his full tax declaration last night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/jeremy-corbyn-failed-to-declare-third-pension-on-tax-return/
He joins high profile Muslim Muhammad Abdul Bari, Baroness Warsi, private sector big shot and appointed diversity worthy Waqar Azmi, and the Lib Dems Ajmal Masroor.
If that wasn't an exciting enough read there is an article slagging off the UK & US for their policy on hostages, i.e. not paying up when nice European countries do pay up.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/720358037005930496
I'd love to visit one day. Like SeanT I read Beevor's Berlin with a horrified fascination. It's a book that leaves you despising the SS and NKVD but admiring the incredible selfless bravery of the common soldier, particularly the Wermacht soldiers who, starved and exhausted, fought to the death to save the trapped civilians in Berlin (the Wenck story, where he sent his troops back into Berlin in an act of suicidal sacrifice, is quite remarkable). What people suffer in war is hard to compute; justI unimaginable.
My wife is going to Limoges (sp?) in France in a few weeks. She's staying near a village where the SS massacred the population for apparently no reason, gunning down women and kids without mercy. The village is left in situ in memoriam to that day and she's going to visit it.
I was less squeamish once and devoured books like Hitler's Willing Executioners and The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich without so much as a twitch of a muscle, but since having children I find it hard to stomach the evil, grisly reality - so visits like that are currently off the menu for me. Watching my two young innocent children living such charmed, comfy lives is hard to equate with what the European kids of the 1940s witnessed. It's nuts. Frighteningly nuts.
Both are remarkable, very unlikely, but they happened.
Also, whenever you invest in an individual shares, you are doing this as a UK resident I guess. If you want to invest in an overseas company on their stock market, you will have to comply to their residency requirements.
So why, when you can invest in UK based funds with overseas interests, would you want to invest directly in an overseas fund which probably costs more and has worse returns?
http://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-news/2016/04/11/two-tories-standing-for-same-wolverhampton-ward-in-may-council-election/
Both will appear on the ballot paper as "The Conservative Party Candidate", in a ward where electors have a single vote.
Can anyone top this for a 2016 local election cock-up?
To help REMAIN and help the Conservative party, Cameron just has to STFU about the EU.
What Roger's friends would call the truth behind the offering.
" The prime minister's hopes of keeping Britain in the EU appear now to rest in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn "
Enough said.
0% of £10 000
20% of £32 000
40% of £30 000
Roughly £18000
If there was indeed tax deducted at source in the various pensions then the figures do not add up as a higher proportion would be at the 40% rate and the tax bill on his HoC return significantly higher.
I smell a rat.
Once you get past the hysteria and the scaremongering from both sides, I'm troubled by the thought it doesn't really matter all that much whether we are formally inside or outside the EU. I believe it was WSC who opined about towing the British Isles into the Atlantic and we cannot avoid Europe geographically though I recognise the political, cultural, social and economic differences and continuing divergence.
The problem we have with the EU stems from the fact we aren't really European at all. That doesn'tmean we can't co-operate with Europe and the Single Market works well for us.but the aforementioned political, social and cultural differences mean we will always jar with Europe because our attitudes and mores aren't European.
I've no doubt that were we to vote LEAVE, everyone would seek to make the divorce as amicable as possible and equally if we vote to REMAIN, no one is suggesting we will use the Euro on June 24th.
Europe and Britain will continue to have to learn to live with each other whether we are in the EU or not and it will be in everyone's interests to make it work. That's why I think it makes no or very little differnece how we vote on June 23rd outside the machinations of the Conservative Party about which, as I'm not a Conservative, I don;t care very much.
I will vote, though, of that I am certain.
We should try and remember never to go there again.