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edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BREXIT Referendum: The advertising industry is under starters orders

So when I heard Adam and Eve/DDB were handling the REMAIN account it struck me as a fortunate coincidence. Their chief exec James Murphy had written a piece in ‘Campaign’ long before their appointment headlined ‘Adland needs to wake up to the dangers of Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • volcanopete
    volcanopete Posts: 2,078
    First.
    IMF backing for Remain.The status quo asserts.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Just read the ludicrous tripe from David Miliband.

    I really don't think I have ever read such puerile rubbish in all my life.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That's a great article, Roger.

    The last line is the most important. Neither "the EU" nor "sovereignty" are things that the public need. So the two sides need to think what the public actually needs.
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    Very nice.

    I agree with TSE on the unacceptability of the first two sentences though. The comparison is clearly too harsh on ad agencies.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited April 2016
    As @volcanopete notes, Project Fear enlists the IMF. Here's the FT's take:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad066f38-008f-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45XI4xnpt

    "Although Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has already expressed her opposition to the UK leaving the EU, the warning is the first time the fund as an institution has expressed a view ratified by all members of its board.

    Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said, “the planned June referendum on EU membership has already created uncertainty for investors, [and] a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships”."

    "The fund envisages that a vote in June to leave the EU would reduce global growth, which would also hit Britain. Citing Britain’s potential departure from the EU as one of the main global risks, it added that, “materialisation of any of these risks could raise the likelihood of other adverse developments”.

    If Britain votes to remain in the EU, the IMF forecasts show the UK again as one of the world’s stronger advanced economies, behind the US and Spain, but ahead of Japan and France. The downgrade to the UK’s 2016 growth rate was larger than other advanced economies...

    If the UK sought to leave the EU, it saw no positive consequences."
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Absolutely fuming with the opening two sentences.

    But apart from that, excellent contribution Roger.

    I hope we see more from you.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    That's a bit harsh Roger, there;s no need to drag whores into the gutter along with lawyers.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited April 2016
    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful...not for the first time.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    71 days to go - God and Allah will be advocating Remain at this escalation of Appeals To Authority
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Very good article, Roger. I think the last sentence rings true. Much to mull over for the Leave campaign.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    I know it's heretical - how about an analysis of the Remain campaign by one of their own?

    This is all feeling very like Lib Dems Winning Here prior to GE2015 result.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Polruan said:

    Very nice.

    I agree with TSE on the unacceptability of the first two sentences though. The comparison is clearly too harsh on ad agencies.

    With apologies to Ronald Reagan.

    It has been said that the legal profession is the second oldest profession. Having worked for sixteen years in the legal profession, I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    what's to worry about ? The revised growth forecast already has a downgrade on 0.6% for the UK another couple of months and Osborne will have removed the Brexit risk to growth singlehanded.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    So far I agree 100% - should I continue reading and spoil it? :lol:
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Alanbrooke said:

    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    That's a bit harsh Roger, there;s no need to drag whores into the gutter along with lawyers.

    Well, quite. At least whores don't charge two different clients for the same time slot (except by special request, as I understand).
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Great article Roger.

    Not always your greatest fan but that is a good piece of work.

    Anyway - sorry for early derail - curse of new thread


    Floater
    Floater Posts: 2,196
    2:11PM

    Danny565 said:

    Also, as I said last night, I predict a Baroness Warsi endorsement for Sadiq Khan before May:

    I might be wrong but was it Mehdi who got into trouble with some of his comments on religion. Especially regarding the Kafir?

    I googled the word Kafir to be sure of spelling - i got the following link

    https://islamqa.info/en/59879

    Dear god......... no wonder we have problems.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    The way it is being reported is seriously dangerous to leave and looks like it will dominate the news media for the rest of today
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Great stuff Roger. It is one of the highlights of pbCOM that there are some posters out there who can bring a different angle to the debate.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    SimonStClare said:

    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    So far I agree 100% - should I continue reading and spoil it? :lol:

    Read it all. Roger is becoming a great thread writer.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    The way it is being reported is seriously dangerous to leave and looks like it will dominate the news media for the rest of today
    Its great PR, just like when IMF backed Osborne austerity plans, and we will hear this repeatedly now until the vote.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    Very nice.

    I agree with TSE on the unacceptability of the first two sentences though. The comparison is clearly too harsh on ad agencies.

    With apologies to Ronald Reagan.

    It has been said that the legal profession is the second oldest profession. Having worked for sixteen years in the legal profession, I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
    You may think of yourselves as Hunter Gatherers, but I just don't see it.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    It's the equivalent of the Long Term Economic Plan.

    Keep on repeating ad infinitum.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I feel that I ought to point out that lawyers don't have hearts of gold.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    The way it is being reported is seriously dangerous to leave and looks like it will dominate the news media for the rest of today
    Yep, if I was leave I'd throw in the towel right now. Game set and matchj. Tell you what, let's just cancel the referendum shall we? What's the point??
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, an Iranian view of the Republican party front runner:

    https://twitter.com/AlexVatanka/status/719876821274202112
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    Stark_Dawning said:

    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    It won't be a game-changer, but the gradual drip-drip of almost every serious and independent expert saying much the same thing over a period of months will have an effect, of course. And quite rightly so, given that the Leave side have done nothing to explain what the alternative is actually supposed to be, or how we get there. Rather than rubbishing the messengers, they should deal with the message (or should have, it's probably too late now).
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    what's to worry about ? The revised growth forecast already has a downgrade on 0.6% for the UK another couple of months and Osborne will have removed the Brexit risk to growth singlehanded.
    It seems to have suddenly united Osborne and McDonnell for remain, though both with different takes on the report.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited April 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    I'm not sure that the IMF works for the Remain campaign. (I do, however, think their prime concern is near-term 'stability' of the global system, and not the sovereignty of the British people, and their advice should be taken with that caveat.)
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited April 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    That's a bit harsh Roger, there;s no need to drag whores into the gutter along with lawyers.

    Well, quite. At least whores don't charge two different clients for the same time slot (except by special request, as I understand).
    Quite so Richard, Whores have standards , you wouldn't find them blogging on PB while servicing a client :-)
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    what's to worry about ? The revised growth forecast already has a downgrade on 0.6% for the UK another couple of months and Osborne will have removed the Brexit risk to growth singlehanded.
    It seems to have suddenly united Osborne and McDonnell for remain, though both with different takes on the report.
    Neither is credible.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    So far I agree 100% - should I continue reading and spoil it? :lol:

    Read it all. Roger is becoming a great thread writer.
    Actually I had read it and agree, it’s rather good.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I feel that I ought to point out that lawyers don't have hearts of gold.

    Merely pots .....
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016
    Roger an interesting well written article. Also free of bias. Can you give a lesson to Meeks and Brind please?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    It's the equivalent of the Long Term Economic Plan.

    Keep on repeating ad infinitum.
    I thought that was "staying in a reformed Europe", which seems to be the go to line for any Tory Remain talking head. I think interventions from the likes of the IMF are probably better saved when soft-Leavers are getting jitters a few days/weeks before the vote and wondering whether it is the right thing to do. Right now, the referendum is barely registering in every day life for the kinds of voters that need to be targeted. Honestly, this if Remain are going to waste their silver bullets like this it makes me think Leave has a chance.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    I started my trade in accountancy for one of the big 4, and that is lowlife stuff, shamelessly chasing the cash. I really don't believe what any of them have to say about anything. Some whores have a heart which is a lot more than you can say about accountancy practices.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    Very nice.

    I agree with TSE on the unacceptability of the first two sentences though. The comparison is clearly too harsh on ad agencies.

    With apologies to Ronald Reagan.

    It has been said that the legal profession is the second oldest profession. Having worked for sixteen years in the legal profession, I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    It won't be a game-changer, but the gradual drip-drip of almost every serious and independent expert saying much the same thing over a period of months will have an effect, of course. And quite rightly so, given that the Leave side have done nothing to explain what the alternative is actually supposed to be, or how we get there. Rather than rubbishing the messengers, they should deal with the message (or should have, it's probably too late now).
    I think that Leave will win when a political party (probably, but not certainly, the Conservatives) espouses EFTA/EEA as a destination.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    The problem is that it is not out of the way - the footage will be replayed ad infinitum right up to the vote This looks like the first real gamechanger
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    taffys said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    The way it is being reported is seriously dangerous to leave and looks like it will dominate the news media for the rest of today
    Yep, if I was leave I'd throw in the towel right now. Game set and matchj. Tell you what, let's just cancel the referendum shall we? What's the point??
    We should prepare for the global armageddon instead and move to the hills and live off our own patch of land....
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    I'm not sure that the IMF works for the Remain campaign. (I do, however, think their prime concern is near-term 'stability' of the global system, and not the sovereignty of the British people, and their advice should be taken with that caveat.)
    Of course, but in the last few days of the campaign, the IMF warning would be much more damaging as there isn't an easy way to wave it away. Everything they say is probably true, though I take issue with the idea that there are no economic upsides to leaving, and that's not an easy task for Boris, Gove or Nige to handle.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    It's the equivalent of the Long Term Economic Plan.

    Keep on repeating ad infinitum.
    I thought that was "staying in a reformed Europe", which seems to be the go to line for any Tory Remain talking head. I think interventions from the likes of the IMF are probably better saved when soft-Leavers are getting jitters a few days/weeks before the vote and wondering whether it is the right thing to do. Right now, the referendum is barely registering in every day life for the kinds of voters that need to be targeted. Honestly, this if Remain are going to waste their silver bullets like this it makes me think Leave has a chance.
    We're in the phoney war stage.

    Come May 9th, Remain/Project Fear really gets going,

    It's the economy stupid, not immigration.

    Why do you think Vote Leave have decided to pretty much ignore immigration as an issue and focus on the economic risk/threat of Remaining?
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    taffys said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    The way it is being reported is seriously dangerous to leave and looks like it will dominate the news media for the rest of today
    Yep, if I was leave I'd throw in the towel right now. Game set and matchj. Tell you what, let's just cancel the referendum shall we? What's the point??
    That seems a bit extreme but surely this is not the news leave wants to hear
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    It won't be a game-changer, but the gradual drip-drip of almost every serious and independent expert saying much the same thing over a period of months will have an effect, of course. And quite rightly so, given that the Leave side have done nothing to explain what the alternative is actually supposed to be, or how we get there. Rather than rubbishing the messengers, they should deal with the message (or should have, it's probably too late now).
    I think that Leave will win when a political party (probably, but not certainly, the Conservatives) espouses EFTA/EEA as a destination.
    I doubt that. Certainly that would flip me over from Leave to Remain -- the EEA would keep the worst things about the EU without any of the advantages.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I feel that I ought to point out that lawyers don't have hearts of gold.

    Merely pots .....
    That makes us sound like leprechauns.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    It won't be a game-changer, but the gradual drip-drip of almost every serious and independent expert saying much the same thing over a period of months will have an effect, of course. And quite rightly so, given that the Leave side have done nothing to explain what the alternative is actually supposed to be, or how we get there. Rather than rubbishing the messengers, they should deal with the message (or should have, it's probably too late now).
    I think that Leave will win when a political party (probably, but not certainly, the Conservatives) espouses EFTA/EEA as a destination.
    I doubt that. Certainly that would flip me over from Leave to Remain -- the EEA would keep the worst things about the EU without any of the advantages.
    I think you will find you are in a minority.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Re IMF - if the damage will be so great and permanent why did our European friends not offer something meaningful to get us to stay?

    Do they not care about the possible damage to people?
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527

    david_herdson said:


    'True. I was more than a bit miffed recently when I was turned down for a job which required A*AA at A level on the grounds that my third A was in General Studies (which wasn't specified in the advert). They kindly let me off the requirement for an A* as they weren't awarded back in the early 1990s, but about as many A*s are given out now as As were then. My two Bs - which would probably be As now - didn't count.

    That said, it did seem a bit ridiculous to be haggling over exam grades awarded more than 20 years ago when I do have something of a career record since then! Probably best avoiding that kind of box-ticking mentality.'

    You have my sympathies there. What you describe shows incredible ignorance on the part of those responsible for the recruitment process. I have heard of much the same problem confronting people who graduated in the 1970s with a 2.2 when applying for posts today requiring a minimum of a 2.1 - no attempt at all really to allow for grade inflation and changes in assessment systems. Twenty years from now it will not really matter because graduates in the job market will have completed their degrees on the basis of the same criteria being applied, but for the time being these anomalies are very unfair. Perhaps there needs to be some system devised whereby those who graduated pre circa 1988 can apply to have their qualifications regraded on a like for like basis
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    I think that Leave will win when a political party (probably, but not certainly, the Conservatives) espouses EFTA/EEA as a destination.

    I don't. A very large driver in Leave's support is about getting 'control of our borders' (which both Leave campaigns tout).
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    I'm not sure that the IMF works for the Remain campaign. (I do, however, think their prime concern is near-term 'stability' of the global system, and not the sovereignty of the British people, and their advice should be taken with that caveat.)
    Of course, but in the last few days of the campaign, the IMF warning would be much more damaging as there isn't an easy way to wave it away. Everything they say is probably true, though I take issue with the idea that there are no economic upsides to leaving, and that's not an easy task for Boris, Gove or Nige to handle.
    Yes, but the IMF doesn't work for Remain, so it publishes according to its own schedule.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/719879115185201152
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MaxPB said:

    Remain are shooting their rounds too early. We're still over two months away from polling day and we're getting the IMF wheeled out. I would have saved that for a final week salvo. Still it's out of the way now for Leave, the earlier the better.

    The problem is that it is not out of the way - the footage will be replayed ad infinitum right up to the vote This looks like the first real gamechanger
    Not really a gamechanger, the CBI and other bodies have come out and said the same. It hasn't really made a difference. That's why the timing is a win for Leave, in the last few days when people are getting nervous, Sterling is falling an IMF intervention saying that, "Brexit is economic doom" would be more powerful. It was going to come whatever the weather.
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    edited April 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    I know it's heretical - how about an analysis of the Remain campaign by one of their own?

    This is all feeling very like Lib Dems Winning Here prior to GE2015 result.

    I can do it in 2 sentences Plato: It's really frustrating seeing all the Project Fear stuff going out, and having to defend an organisation with so many flaws. I'd much rather talk about how the EU needs to improve and what the vision is for Europe, but with backs against the wall and a well-established campaign to get out whatever the economic cost, then pointing out the risks and damage from leaving is probably the way to win in the short-term, even if it does great harm to the UK in the long term by stoking up nationalism and stirring grievances.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    It won't be a game-changer, but the gradual drip-drip of almost every serious and independent expert saying much the same thing over a period of months will have an effect, of course. And quite rightly so, given that the Leave side have done nothing to explain what the alternative is actually supposed to be, or how we get there. Rather than rubbishing the messengers, they should deal with the message (or should have, it's probably too late now).
    I think that Leave will win when a political party (probably, but not certainly, the Conservatives) espouses EFTA/EEA as a destination.
    I doubt that. Certainly that would flip me over from Leave to Remain -- the EEA would keep the worst things about the EU without any of the advantages.
    I think you will find you are in a minority.
    Really? All the polls have consistently said immigration is by far the biggest factor that is driving Leave voters. Why would people vote for the EEA if that meant no changes to immigration? Surely people would just say "why bother with all the uncertainty of change if the big problem isn't going to be fixed anyway"?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Roger has a lyrical quality in his prose. "People don't need a drill they need a hole" is sublime. If I could write like him I would have my novels published by now.

    I always admire OGH's writing- it so simple and effective. Pulpstar and Tissue Price too come to mind for effective prose. JackW, and even SeanT if you can get through his anger issues.
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Roger an interesting well written article. Also free of bias. Can you give a lesson to Meeks and Brind please?

  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Didn't the IMF say that the UK should join the Euro or else Armageddon would happen>
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    edited April 2016
    They're whores.

    looooool.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    justin124 said:


    david_herdson said:


    'True. I was more than a bit miffed recently when I was turned down for a job which required A*AA at A level on the grounds that my third A was in General Studies (which wasn't specified in the advert). They kindly let me off the requirement for an A* as they weren't awarded back in the early 1990s, but about as many A*s are given out now as As were then. My two Bs - which would probably be As now - didn't count.

    That said, it did seem a bit ridiculous to be haggling over exam grades awarded more than 20 years ago when I do have something of a career record since then! Probably best avoiding that kind of box-ticking mentality.'

    You have my sympathies there. What you describe shows incredible ignorance on the part of those responsible for the recruitment process. I have heard of much the same problem confronting people who graduated in the 1970s with a 2.2 when applying for posts today requiring a minimum of a 2.1 - no attempt at all really to allow for grade inflation and changes in assessment systems. Twenty years from now it will not really matter because graduates in the job market will have completed their degrees on the basis of the same criteria being applied, but for the time being these anomalies are very unfair. Perhaps there needs to be some system devised whereby those who graduated pre circa 1988 can apply to have their qualifications regraded on a like for like basis

    Thanks. Yes, it does make a change for the younger generation to be favoured rather than disadvantaged in something but grade inflation is real and a mindless application of criteria (which are not necessarily relevant anyway), doesn't do either the employer or the applicants any favours.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
    If only the Greeks had listened.
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/719879115185201152

    "UK economy already impacted by referendum cynically agreed for short term electoral advantage by weak party leader?"
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As @volcanopete notes, Project Fear enlists the IMF. Here's the FT's take:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad066f38-008f-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45XI4xnpt

    "Although Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has already expressed her opposition to the UK leaving the EU, the warning is the first time the fund as an institution has expressed a view ratified by all members of its board.

    Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said, “the planned June referendum on EU membership has already created uncertainty for investors, [and] a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships”."

    "The fund envisages that a vote in June to leave the EU would reduce global growth, which would also hit Britain. Citing Britain’s potential departure from the EU as one of the main global risks, it added that, “materialisation of any of these risks could raise the likelihood of other adverse developments”.

    If Britain votes to remain in the EU, the IMF forecasts show the UK again as one of the world’s stronger advanced economies, behind the US and Spain, but ahead of Japan and France. The downgrade to the UK’s 2016 growth rate was larger than other advanced economies...

    If the UK sought to leave the EU, it saw no positive consequences."

    Anyone thinking the IMF has a good record on calling these kinds of things should have a close look at the GDP forecasts they put out for Greece in 2010/11, and compare them with the actual outturns. A bigger forecast miss it would be hard to find in the history of economic forecasting.

    They should also take a close look at why the IMF signed up to take part in loan deals for Greece which they knew perfectly well were unworkable and indeed likely to be counterproductive.

    The answer is of course, that all rationality had to be subordinated to the political imperative of preventing Greece from exiting the euro. As a number of their former staff members have confirmed.

    Any official IMF comments on Brexit should be ignored. They are dancing to the same political tune now.


  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Floater said:

    Re IMF - if the damage will be so great and permanent why did our European friends not offer something meaningful to get us to stay?

    Do they not care about the possible damage to people?

    1. Because we didn't really ask.
    2. Because (I suspect) they misjudged how likely a Brexit would be.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Blue_rog said:

    Didn't the IMF say that the UK should join the Euro or else Armageddon would happen>

    Tim Montgomerie ن
    ‎@montie
    The IMF has always backed the failed euro and, led by Christine Lagarde, now backs British membership of the EU. Hardly surprising.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
    Eventually.

    http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/imf-greece/
    "We have serious doubts about the approach," said Brazil's then director Paulo Nogueira Batista. He slammed IMF forecasts for Greece as overly optimistic - "Panglossian." Arvind Virmani, the director from India at the time, said the program imposed "a mammoth burden" that Greece's economy "could hardly bear."

    But they and others who feared the IMF was walking into a quagmire had little room for maneuver. The fund's powerful Managing Director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and a handful of his advisers, feared Greece posed a threat to the wider euro zone financial system. They had already decided to plunge into the crisis. The doubters were given a blunt retort, according to the minutes.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2016
    Off Topic ..... Apols

    It's interesting to see how the betting market is pricing up which one of the three relegation threatened Premier League sides will ultimately survive to collect their £100+ million share of the spoils next season.
    Currently the best "Stay-Up" prices are : Newcastle 9/1 from Bet365, Sunderland 7/2 from Paddy Power and Norwich 1/2 from SkyBet.
    With only a handful of games still to be played, each and every result could prove crucial. As the odds suggest, Newcastle's chances look pretty desperate, being 6 points behind Norwich, albeit with a game in hand.
    There's a tiny 1.1% underround based on these odds, but it's really not worth making the effort for such a modest return.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Polruan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/719879115185201152

    "UK economy already impacted by referendum cynically agreed for short term electoral advantage by weak party leader?"
    or non-performing CoE thinks thank heavens I've got something else to blame.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    david_herdson said:

    Floater said:

    Re IMF - if the damage will be so great and permanent why did our European friends not offer something meaningful to get us to stay?

    Do they not care about the possible damage to people?

    1. Because we didn't really ask.
    2. Because (I suspect) they misjudged how likely a Brexit would be.
    3. They misjudged because we did not ask for enough.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And any Greek thinking life was shit then, look what Merkel did to their country with immigration/tourism collapse.

    It's appalling - and the EU effectively overruled their democracy when they voted the wrong way.

    There was much outrage here at the time - now all forgotten by some.
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
    If only the Greeks had listened.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    runnymede said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    As @volcanopete notes, Project Fear enlists the IMF. Here's the FT's take:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad066f38-008f-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45XI4xnpt

    "Although Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has already expressed her opposition to the UK leaving the EU, the warning is the first time the fund as an institution has expressed a view ratified by all members of its board.

    Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said, “the planned June referendum on EU membership has already created uncertainty for investors, [and] a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships”."

    "The fund envisages that a vote in June to leave the EU would reduce global growth, which would also hit Britain. Citing Britain’s potential departure from the EU as one of the main global risks, it added that, “materialisation of any of these risks could raise the likelihood of other adverse developments”.

    If Britain votes to remain in the EU, the IMF forecasts show the UK again as one of the world’s stronger advanced economies, behind the US and Spain, but ahead of Japan and France. The downgrade to the UK’s 2016 growth rate was larger than other advanced economies...

    If the UK sought to leave the EU, it saw no positive consequences."

    Anyone thinking the IMF has a good record on calling these kinds of things should have a close look at the GDP forecasts they put out for Greece in 2010/11, and compare them with the actual outturns. A bigger forecast miss it would be hard to find in the history of economic forecasting.

    They should also take a close look at why the IMF signed up to take part in loan deals for Greece which they knew perfectly well were unworkable and indeed likely to be counterproductive.

    The answer is of course, that all rationality had to be subordinated to the political imperative of preventing Greece from exiting the euro. As a number of their former staff members have confirmed.

    Any official IMF comments on Brexit should be ignored. They are dancing to the same political tune now.


    Good luck with that - best if leavers do not watch the broadcast media for the rest of the day but having said that these warnings will be played over and over again in remain adverts, broadcasts and during the debates right up to the 23rd June
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
    If only the Greeks had listened.
    Oh, there's absolutely no doubt that the Greeks should have chosen to exit the Euro.

    When Tsipras and SYRIZA first came to power, the IMF offered their full support to recapitalise the Greek banking sector following an exit. The ECB liked the fact that they would be able to hide losses by accepting repayment in devalued Drachma. It would clearly have been a massive boost to tourism.

    But Tsipiras had promised the impossible: massive debt relief, without reform, and inside the Euro. Throughout the whole negotiating process he kept saying that the Germans and the IMF would fold. Instead, even the Germans by the end were proposing Grexit.

    He chose to keep Greece in the Euro because he couldn't accept that his forecasts were wrong. It is terrible that so many Greeks are jobless because of his stubbornness.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Meanwhile, an Iranian view of the Republican party front runner:

    https://twitter.com/AlexVatanka/status/719876821274202112

    The Iranians might intend that to be a compliment.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Thanks Roger, for a great piece.

    "Take control", particularly with regard to a threatening 'unknown', is a great message to make central to the Leave campaign. Addressing the emotional needs relating to amorphous risks is far more powerful than appealing to the head.

    Just off next week to give a pre-conference course on communication of science and risk to the public. Giving a sense of control over the previously unknown is key to successful messaging.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    The IMF?

    I'd guess that 90+% of the electorate haven't got the foggiest who they are, and the Project Fear tactic has become a standing joke with a great many people anyway.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    runnymede said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    As @volcanopete notes, Project Fear enlists the IMF. Here's the FT's take:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad066f38-008f-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz45XI4xnpt

    "Although Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, has already expressed her opposition to the UK leaving the EU, the warning is the first time the fund as an institution has expressed a view ratified by all members of its board.

    Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said, “the planned June referendum on EU membership has already created uncertainty for investors, [and] a ‘Brexit’ could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships”."

    "The fund envisages that a vote in June to leave the EU would reduce global growth, which would also hit Britain. Citing Britain’s potential departure from the EU as one of the main global risks, it added that, “materialisation of any of these risks could raise the likelihood of other adverse developments”.

    If Britain votes to remain in the EU, the IMF forecasts show the UK again as one of the world’s stronger advanced economies, behind the US and Spain, but ahead of Japan and France. The downgrade to the UK’s 2016 growth rate was larger than other advanced economies...

    If the UK sought to leave the EU, it saw no positive consequences."

    Anyone thinking the IMF has a good record on calling these kinds of things should have a close look at the GDP forecasts they put out for Greece in 2010/11, and compare them with the actual outturns. A bigger forecast miss it would be hard to find in the history of economic forecasting.

    They should also take a close look at why the IMF signed up to take part in loan deals for Greece which they knew perfectly well were unworkable and indeed likely to be counterproductive.

    The answer is of course, that all rationality had to be subordinated to the political imperative of preventing Greece from exiting the euro. As a number of their former staff members have confirmed.

    Any official IMF comments on Brexit should be ignored. They are dancing to the same political tune now.


    Good luck with that - best if leavers do not watch the broadcast media for the rest of the day but having said that these warnings will be played over and over again in remain adverts, broadcasts and during the debates right up to the 23rd June
    most people are at work.

    when they get home they'll watch about15 minutes of the news. Then Coronoation Street or Property porn,

    The bulk of them will think IMF do self assembly furniture.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Received the 'stay in the EU' leaflet.

    Twice.

    Clearly Dave thinks I really need convincing.

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Osborne mate Christine Lagarde being helpful again...not for the first time.

    'Live' now on BBC news. Horrible for leave - Osborne and Mc Donell already on the news warning against Brexit in view of this report
    No, not good for Leave at all. Some will doubtless don their tinfoil hats and denounce the IMF as the puppet of Dave and 'Project Dread'. But at best that will find resonance with only the truly converted. This could be a game-changer.

    Surely with George Osborne as Chancellor, we have nothing to worry about, economically?
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Didn't the IMF say that the UK should join the Euro or else Armageddon would happen>

    Tim Montgomerie ن
    ‎@montie
    The IMF has always backed the failed euro and, led by Christine Lagarde, now backs British membership of the EU. Hardly surprising.

    Hardly surprising, indeed. And let's not forget, the interests of Britain or the British public feature nowhere in the IMF's calculations or sentiments, except as they may benefit the IMF.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536


    'Good luck with that - best if leavers do not watch the broadcast media for the rest of the day but having said that these warnings will be played over and over again in remain adverts, broadcasts and during the debates right up to the 23rd June'


    Interesting how the Chief Economist of the other Bretton Woods institution (which is not controlled by an EU functionary) has a much more relaxed and sensible view ---

    '[Kaushik Basu] was more upbeat about Britain's prospects if it left the European Union, suggesting the country could thrive after a Brexit.

    ...the chief economist indicated that Britain could be better off outside the EU if it forged new trade ties and cemented old ones.'


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/09/no-end-in-sight-for-global-economic-misery-warns-world-bank/
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    I somehow doubt that the great unwashed will be moved by the IMF's views on the impact of a Brexit on investors.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016
    3 more weeks of the local elections left and those elections with the police elections are distracting some of the voters attention.
    Then 7 weeks for the referendum campaign, of which just 5 weeks before postal votes go out.
    But the results from the local results are likely to dominate the first of the 5 weeks, therefore the window to influence referendum voters is down to a brief 4 weeks.
    and the 4 weeks happens with the european football underway....
    All of that is likely to result in a low turnout.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Alanbrooke said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Advertising agencies are like lawyers. They’re whores.

    That's a bit harsh Roger, there;s no need to drag whores into the gutter along with lawyers.

    Well, quite. At least whores don't charge two different clients for the same time slot (except by special request, as I understand).
    Quite so Richard, Whores have standards , you wouldn't find them blogging on PB while servicing a client :-)
    They provide better value for money, as well.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.


    Do you think there's 364 of them yet?
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Precisely, I'm truly perplexed by this.
    MTimT said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Didn't the IMF say that the UK should join the Euro or else Armageddon would happen>

    Tim Montgomerie ن
    ‎@montie
    The IMF has always backed the failed euro and, led by Christine Lagarde, now backs British membership of the EU. Hardly surprising.

    Hardly surprising, indeed. And let's not forget, the interests of Britain or the British public feature nowhere in the IMF's calculations or sentiments, except as they may benefit the IMF.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    Excellent header article

    Regarding the IMF, would this be the same IMF that knew that what they and the EU were doing to Greece wouldn't work, and in fact would be horribly counterproductive, but decided to do it anyway ?

    The IMF backed Grexit, but Tsipiras bottled it.
    If only the Greeks had listened.
    Oh, there's absolutely no doubt that the Greeks should have chosen to exit the Euro.

    When Tsipras and SYRIZA first came to power, the IMF offered their full support to recapitalise the Greek banking sector following an exit. The ECB liked the fact that they would be able to hide losses by accepting repayment in devalued Drachma. It would clearly have been a massive boost to tourism.

    But Tsipiras had promised the impossible: massive debt relief, without reform, and inside the Euro. Throughout the whole negotiating process he kept saying that the Germans and the IMF would fold. Instead, even the Germans by the end were proposing Grexit.

    He chose to keep Greece in the Euro because he couldn't accept that his forecasts were wrong. It is terrible that so many Greeks are jobless because of his stubbornness.
    Well Varoufakis resigned because Tsipras bottled it. I've heard he was advocating for Grexit from the start. In 2014 the political cost of Grexit was probably at an all time low, people had come around to the idea that they would leave, reform and then petition to re-enter 10-12 years down the line and it would be a one off given that the other nations had gone quite a bit further with their reforms or were too important to dump.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.

    But, the direst warnings are, in the scheme of things, pretty small beer.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    chestnut said:

    The IMF?

    I'd guess that 90+% of the electorate haven't got the foggiest who they are, and the Project Fear tactic has become a standing joke with a great many people anyway.

    Think they may well know who they are by the end of today judging by the coverage on the news channels
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.

    But, the direst warnings are, in the scheme of things, pretty small beer.
    If Labour voters can turn out for Ed Miliband, would they pay much attention to the IMF?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sean_F said:

    But, the direst warnings are, in the scheme of things, pretty small beer.

    I wouldn't say so, but I admire the fact that you are honest enough to accept that there is a trade-off.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    runnymede said:


    Anyone thinking the IMF has a good record on calling these kinds of things should have a close look at the GDP forecasts they put out for Greece in 2010/11, and compare them with the actual outturns. A bigger forecast miss it would be hard to find in the history of economic forecasting.

    They should also take a close look at why the IMF signed up to take part in loan deals for Greece which they knew perfectly well were unworkable and indeed likely to be counterproductive.

    The answer is of course, that all rationality had to be subordinated to the political imperative of preventing Greece from exiting the euro. As a number of their former staff members have confirmed.

    Any official IMF comments on Brexit should be ignored. They are dancing to the same political tune now.


    Good luck with that - best if leavers do not watch the broadcast media for the rest of the day but having said that these warnings will be played over and over again in remain adverts, broadcasts and during the debates right up to the 23rd June
    It seems to come as a bit of a shock to you that the people talking here are not running the leave campaign. So when someone makes a point it is a touch fatuous to reply with words to the effect of "is that the best the leave campaign can do". The arguments we make or don't make are not worth a hill of beans to the campaign, you probably better book an appointment to talk with Mr Cummings, and take Mr Meeks with you, he has the same misapprehension.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.

    So you're going with the Elite issues profit warning theory.

    Can;t see that worrying the huddled masses personally.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    71 days to go, I'd be amazed if anyone recalls this by Day 69.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    chestnut said:

    The IMF?

    I'd guess that 90+% of the electorate haven't got the foggiest who they are, and the Project Fear tactic has become a standing joke with a great many people anyway.

    Think they may well know who they are by the end of today judging by the coverage on the news channels
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    But, the direst warnings are, in the scheme of things, pretty small beer.

    I wouldn't say so, but I admire the fact that you are honest enough to accept that there is a trade-off.
    The most pessimistic forecasts are that 10 years after Brexit, GDP could be 2-3% lower than would otherwise be the case. That seems a fairly modest level of risk to me.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    runnymede said:



    'Good luck with that - best if leavers do not watch the broadcast media for the rest of the day but having said that these warnings will be played over and over again in remain adverts, broadcasts and during the debates right up to the 23rd June'


    Interesting how the Chief Economist of the other Bretton Woods institution (which is not controlled by an EU functionary) has a much more relaxed and sensible view ---

    '[Kaushik Basu] was more upbeat about Britain's prospects if it left the European Union, suggesting the country could thrive after a Brexit.

    ...the chief economist indicated that Britain could be better off outside the EU if it forged new trade ties and cemented old ones.'


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/09/no-end-in-sight-for-global-economic-misery-warns-world-bank/

    Problem with that is today's IMF report does not endorse that view
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    There is of course an explanation which fits the facts in a straightforward way, without having to invent ever more silly conspiracy theories - that the IMF, and the OECD, and the CBI, and all 20 of the G20 finance ministers, and all the big investment banks, and the vast majority of academic economists, and the Treasury, are well informed, genuinely believe what they say, and might well be right.

    But no doubt the messenger-shooting will continue up to, and probably beyond, June 24th.

    But, the direst warnings are, in the scheme of things, pretty small beer.
    I;d seen 2-3% hit on growth. Osborne has just shaved off 0.6% in the last fortnight and yet nobody is yelling.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    pbr2013 said:

    I somehow doubt that the great unwashed will be moved by the IMF's views on the impact of a Brexit on investors.

    It is the great unwashed that I believe will decide this. The Mrs Duffy's who worry about the effects on their lives from "flocking immigrants". My guesstimate spreadsheet forecasts that even if Labour GE 2015 voters go 2:1 for REMAIN, LEAVE can still narrowly win.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Polruan said:

    Very nice.

    I agree with TSE on the unacceptability of the first two sentences though. The comparison is clearly too harsh on ad agencies.

    With apologies to Ronald Reagan.

    It has been said that the legal profession is the second oldest profession. Having worked for sixteen years in the legal profession, I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
    You may think of yourselves as Hunter Gatherers, but I just don't see it.
    Some of the New York lawyers working in 'eat what you kill' basis are pretty close to the Hunter part of that.
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