politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd
Yougov have produced a very useful map that ranks local authority areas across Great Britain by levels of Euroscepticism. . Euroscepticism is not necessarily identical to supporting Brexit, but one can assume that there is a close correlation between the two. What does the map show us, and how does it compare to polling data?
Comments
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Excellent piece Sean, though not on a Friday.
Hopefully we'll see more from you again.0 -
Thanks.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece Sean, though not on a Friday.
Hopefully we'll see more from you again.
I should have added that in this contest, if I'm correct, the "key marginal seats" won't be in places like Swindon, Redditch, Plymouth, or Peterborough, but rather in places like South Cambridgeshire, Hertsmere, Windsor & Maidenhead.
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There's quite a reasonable Jewish vote in parts of Southend0
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Very good analysis.
I'm looking forward to the night/morning that the results are announced. I'll keep your pointers asa guide0 -
I didn't know that. I think Southend is likely to go heavily for Brexit.OldKingCole said:There's quite a reasonable Jewish vote in parts of Southend
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Betting Post
F1: my pre-qualifying piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying.html0 -
I suspect the boroughs you mention at the end will fall to Remain.Sean_F said:
Thanks.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece Sean, though not on a Friday.
Hopefully we'll see more from you again.
I should have added that in this contest, if I'm correct, the "key marginal seats" won't be in places like Swindon, Redditch, Plymouth, or Peterborough, but rather in places like South Cambridgeshire, Hertsmere, Windsor & Maidenhead.0 -
Excellent fact filled article, with plenty to chew on. Hope you'll do follow up ones too.0
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Interesting piece, Mr. Fear. Do we have a timetable for the result, or know how it's going to be reported (ie by local council regions, or suchlike)?0
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In the past fortnight I've had discussions with two people who know what they are talking about one saidSean_F said:
Thanks.TheScreamingEagles said:Excellent piece Sean, though not on a Friday.
Hopefully we'll see more from you again.
I should have added that in this contest, if I'm correct, the "key marginal seats" won't be in places like Swindon, Redditch, Plymouth, or Peterborough, but rather in places like South Cambridgeshire, Hertsmere, Windsor & Maidenhead.
1) The polls are underestimating Tory voting Leavers (because Tory voters do turn out)
The other said
2) The polls are overestimating Tory voting Leavers because of the Cameron effect, that we should not confuse Tory members (who consider the EU a high priority) and Tory voters who like Cameron, and don't consider the EU a high priority, but the economy, schools'n'hospital are their top priorities and will follow Cameron's lead.0 -
I believe results will be available the evening before the vote to selected parties.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting piece, Mr. Fear. Do we have a timetable for the result, or know how it's going to be reported (ie by local council regions, or suchlike)?
[Joke]0 -
Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!0 -
Well, pubs will be anti-European, they're full of geezers.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...
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They are following the AV referendum model.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting piece, Mr. Fear. Do we have a timetable for the result, or know how it's going to be reported (ie by local council regions, or suchlike)?
440 Local voting areas, 12 national count collation centres.
Result announced in Manchester0 -
Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.0
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Must admit I’m out of touch with the local political scene there now, but historically there’s a big Lib/LbDem vote which I believe has now switched to Independent.Sean_F said:
I didn't know that. I think Southend is likely to go heavily for Brexit.OldKingCole said:There's quite a reasonable Jewish vote in parts of Southend
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Wine drinkers for Remain, beer drinkers for Leave IMHO.Innocent_Abroad said:
Well, pubs will be anti-European, they're full of geezers.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...0 -
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.0 -
And the 160k at Glastonbury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.0 -
Coffee drinkers for remain,foxinsoxuk said:
Wine drinkers for Remain, beer drinkers for Leave IMHO.Innocent_Abroad said:
Well, pubs will be anti-European, they're full of geezers.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...
Tea Drinkers for leave.
?0 -
Mr. Eagles, cheers. Are they counting on the night, or using the London mayoral approach of waiting 2 days then counting slowly?0
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The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?0
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Counting on the night. I think.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, cheers. Are they counting on the night, or using the London mayoral approach of waiting 2 days then counting slowly?
It should be a quick result.
Unlike the AV referendum, there are no other elections that day, so there's less administration effort to ensure to sort out and split the ballot papers.
I think we'll have an idea of the final result will be before most people wake up0 -
Large number of blokes in pubs more interested in whether Kane, Vardy or Rooney starts, than other aspects of European debate.Plato_Says said:And the 160k at Glastonbury.
TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.
Glasto starts on the Friday doesn't it (though often people arrive and camp on the Thursday).0 -
I agreefoxinsoxuk said:
Wine drinkers for Remain, beer drinkers for Leave IMHO.Innocent_Abroad said:
Well, pubs will be anti-European, they're full of geezers.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...
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At the risk of sounding hard-working, I have a book out. Another one. (Admittedly, an anthology to which I've contributed a short story). Comes out on the 12th.
So, if you like horror, you can pre-order here: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE/
[I should stress I don't have anything else coming out for months, at least. I won't be releasing a book every 12 days].0 -
Morris - I've followed you in on your poll setter suggestion, especially as BWIN are offering odds which are 27% better than those you considered attractive. Fingers crossed.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
F1: my pre-qualifying piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying.html0 -
The big split will be between straight men ( Leave ) and gays ( Remain ). The high Remain vote in Scotland will prove the majority of scottish men are homosexual. You can see it when they wear skirts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.0 -
Mr. Eagles, cheers. Let's hope the margin's a decisive one.0
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Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile0 -
Mr. Putney, I would've expected slightly longer odds (I was thinking 2.5-2.7 would come up) but the odds are still value, I think.
The margins bet was a tricky one to decide about. Got a few potential bets in mind for the race, but we'll see how qualifying shakes out.0 -
I'm writing a thread on what Scotland keeping the UK in EU whilst England votes to Leave means for the Union.Alanbrooke said:
The big split will be between straight men ( Leave ) and gays ( Remain ). The high Remain vote in Scotland will prove the majority of scottish men are homosexual. You can see it when they wear skirts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.
I maybe a bit provocative, I mean, how often do I get to wind up both UKIP and the Nats in the same thread?0 -
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
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Not as often as you would like, I suspect. Time for one of your pills?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm writing a thread on what Scotland keeping the UK in EU whilst England votes to Leave means for the Union.Alanbrooke said:
The big split will be between straight men ( Leave ) and gays ( Remain ). The high Remain vote in Scotland will prove the majority of scottish men are homosexual. You can see it when they wear skirts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.
I maybe a bit provocative, I mean, how often do I get to wind up both UKIP and the Nats in the same thread?
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Alanbrooke said:
The big split will be between straight men ( Leave ) and gays ( Remain ). The high Remain vote in Scotland will prove the majority of scottish men are homosexual. You can see it when they wear skirts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.0 -
There was a voodoo poll in the Maidenhead advertiser at the end of Feb, which had leave winning by a single vote out of 832. I can well believe the borough will be close
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/POLL-RESULT-Should-Britain-leave-the-European-Union-26022016.htm0 -
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?0 -
F1: undecided about whether to watch qualifying or not. I may opt out, and follow it on the BBC livefeed.0
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Mr. Eagles, on the other hand Ed Miliband and his 8' of limestone aren't running Leave
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Must go & lounge about our local wine bar insted of the pub. Just to see. There’s one fervent Kipper in the pub; what her husband thingks I don’t know. Man of few (permitted) words, except when it comes to paying.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
Sean Excellent piece, thanks. Well I like Beer and Wine,and drink Both tea and coffee,so put me down as undecided.0
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Good article Sean , not much to argue against . The factor you have not mentioned though is one I pointed out a couple of weeks ago much to the annoyance of some Leavers . I think it was a Comres poll that showed a clear split between workers ( those in employment ) having a majority intending to vote Remain whilst those not in work ( retired and unemployed ) having a majority intending to vote Leave .
This would suggest that towns with high numbers of retirees such as Worthing voting Leave whilst Hertsmere , S Cambs , Windsor/Maidenhead vote Remain .0 -
Not so much if you consider that the Jewish population is likely to vote somewhere between 2:1 in favour of Remain and 2:1 in favour of Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well the average in the poll of polls is Remain with a lead of circa 2%peter_from_putney said:Approximately 0.5% of the UK's population is Jewish, so hardly likely to prove decisive either way in the EU referendum.
0.5% matters a lot in that context.0 -
Excellent piece Sean. I think you've covered everything quite right too.
As a middle class Conservative I do feel like a swing voter as you've described and probably won't make my mind up until I have the pencil in my hand. It's a weird feeling being a swing voter for a change ...0 -
But Farage might beMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, on the other hand Ed Miliband and his 8' of limestone aren't running Leave
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Mr. Eagles, that's because the wise words of Morris Dancer (namely, locking Farage in a shed for several years) were ignored.0
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I expect we'll have an idea of the final result well before most of us go to sleep!TheScreamingEagles said:
Counting on the night. I think.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, cheers. Are they counting on the night, or using the London mayoral approach of waiting 2 days then counting slowly?
It should be a quick result.
Unlike the AV referendum, there are no other elections that day, so there's less administration effort to ensure to sort out and split the ballot papers.
I think we'll have an idea of the final result will be before most people wake up0 -
Well, us here, anyway!Philip_Thompson said:
I expect we'll have an idea of the final result well before most of us go to sleep!TheScreamingEagles said:
Counting on the night. I think.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, cheers. Are they counting on the night, or using the London mayoral approach of waiting 2 days then counting slowly?
It should be a quick result.
Unlike the AV referendum, there are no other elections that day, so there's less administration effort to ensure to sort out and split the ballot papers.
I think we'll have an idea of the final result will be before most people wake up0 -
Isn't the greatest utility of this map being able to predict the outcome from the first result or two? Con Majority still 10/1 when the first constituencies came in last May, repeated.
Is it possible to aggregate the map (population weighted ideally) to the 22 reporting areas referred to by TSE?0 -
That's what I meant lol ...OldKingCole said:
Well, us here, anyway!Philip_Thompson said:
I expect we'll have an idea of the final result well before most of us go to sleep!TheScreamingEagles said:
Counting on the night. I think.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, cheers. Are they counting on the night, or using the London mayoral approach of waiting 2 days then counting slowly?
It should be a quick result.
Unlike the AV referendum, there are no other elections that day, so there's less administration effort to ensure to sort out and split the ballot papers.
I think we'll have an idea of the final result will be before most people wake up0 -
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
12 reporting regions.foxinsoxuk said:Isn't the greatest utility of this map being able to predict the outcome from the first result or two? Con Majority still 10/1 when the first constituencies came in last May, repeated.
Is it possible to aggregate the map (population weighted ideally) to the 22 reporting areas referred to by TSE?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/referendums/2011-UK-referendum-on-the-voting-system-used-to-elect-MPs0 -
F1: Manor 7th and 8th. Admittedly, that's because no lap times have been posted so the teams are listed in alphabetical order.0
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come on Klopp - you need to rest your players for dortmund....0
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This is my first weekend with Hugo Lloris as my goalkeeper in the fantasy football.Scrapheap_as_was said:come on Klopp - you need to rest your players for dortmund....
You know what that means.
You're going to lose 6 nil.0 -
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
FYI - This is Craig Elder's piece from last summer, this applies to the EURef too
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11757682/2015-really-was-the-first-digital-general-election-here-are-7-lessons-you-should-know.html0 -
I've dropped all my spurs players to counter you.... would have bought Liverpool defenders but not that desperate... mind you my skipper choice is countering your triple skip...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is my first weekend with Hugo Lloris as my goalkeeper in the fantasy football.Scrapheap_as_was said:come on Klopp - you need to rest your players for dortmund....
You know what that means.
You're going to lose 6 nil.0 -
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
Personally I'd have Hertsmere at 50/50 on current polling.MarkSenior said:Good article Sean , not much to argue against . The factor you have not mentioned though is one I pointed out a couple of weeks ago much to the annoyance of some Leavers . I think it was a Comres poll that showed a clear split between workers ( those in employment ) having a majority intending to vote Remain whilst those not in work ( retired and unemployed ) having a majority intending to vote Leave .
This would suggest that towns with high numbers of retirees such as Worthing voting Leave whilst Hertsmere , S Cambs , Windsor/Maidenhead vote Remain .0 -
Does anyone with a good memory of the AV referendum recall the reporting order? And whether there was much variation between areas?TheScreamingEagles said:
12 reporting regions.foxinsoxuk said:Isn't the greatest utility of this map being able to predict the outcome from the first result or two? Con Majority still 10/1 when the first constituencies came in last May, repeated.
Is it possible to aggregate the map (population weighted ideally) to the 22 reporting areas referred to by TSE?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/referendums/2011-UK-referendum-on-the-voting-system-used-to-elect-MPs
Perhaps a good excuse for an AV revisited thread....0 -
I don't micro-targeting matters much when the whole country is treated as a single constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
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I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
Indeed but it might help boost turnout.Sean_F said:
I don't micro-targeting matters much when the whole country is treated as a single constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
SW London is probably more eurosceptic than areas closer to the centre.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!0 -
A lot depends whether the Liverpool team are the first half team against Saints or the second half, and tommorow whether it is the same for the Saints.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I've dropped all my spurs players to counter you.... would have bought Liverpool defenders but not that desperate... mind you my skipper choice is countering your triple skip...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is my first weekend with Hugo Lloris as my goalkeeper in the fantasy football.Scrapheap_as_was said:come on Klopp - you need to rest your players for dortmund....
You know what that means.
You're going to lose 6 nil.0 -
80 days to go from tomorrow0
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Interesting, if unsubtle, job application.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
0 -
London Labour members have been issued with a handy dual-purpose poster - "Vote Sadiq for London May 5" on one side, then flip it over and it says "Labour In for Britain June 23" on the reverse. Not too suitable for a Tory area but good in Innner London.0
-
But they do not have Lynton Crosby looking at the overall picture and dictating the major messages. When Cooper was involved in GE2010 although working in a MR company, Cooper made little use of research to test the effectiveness of ideas. Hence why we had that awful manifesto and ideas such as Big Society that used up valuable media time.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
0 -
Reading the tea leaves? Sorry, couldn't resistBigRich said:
Coffee drinkers for remain,foxinsoxuk said:
Wine drinkers for Remain, beer drinkers for Leave IMHO.Innocent_Abroad said:
Well, pubs will be anti-European, they're full of geezers.peter_from_putney said:Sean Fear: "Greater London is by some margin, the most Europhile region of England."
Not in the pubs and other meeteries I frequent in SW London it isn't.
Based on a wholly atypical survey of my family, friends and acquaintances, I reckon LEAVE would win by at least a 60% : 40% margin, which must mean it's time to plonk your money down on REMAIN!
I would go further & suggest that non-drinking men are REMAINDERS and heavy tipplers LEAVE like nobody's business...
Tea Drinkers for leave.
?
A couple of questions:
1- where will be the Nuneaton on June 23rd? I.e. The first area to declare which we think is a 'marginal' so will give us a clear idea which way it's going?
2-How do I support the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition to be the official 'Out' campaign? It's been funny enough watching Vote Leave, Leave.EU and Grassroots Out bickering for six months, but this would be hilarious if they got the official designation instead.
0 -
FPT:EPG said:
I'm sorry that they say mean things about your party. I know PB is used to Labour politicians who do not care about winning popular support!Mortimer said:
The worst comment made IMHO was accusing the right of not liking steel workers. Just a horrid form of entirely untruthful class-based rubbish that I thought intelligent MPs like Nick Palmer had moved the Labour party away from.Jonathan said:
You're right, she's good value. It's refreshing to hear a Labour backbencher on the front foot.Mortimer said:Listening to AQ on R4 - Jess Philips really is a perfect example of the unreasonable Labour anti-Tory populist rabble rousing MP isn't she?
What a load of tosh.
Class based politics is ugly, and more importantly, utterly ineffective. The general public do not think that Tories hate certain sectors of society. Some bigoted Labour members/voters might, but not enough, thank God, are foolish enough to think that way.
The fact that other policies and strategies also make Labour ineffective and unelectable is utterly irrelevant.0 -
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.Sean_F said:
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
None of this really matters, we're in the phony war stage.Sean_F said:
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
The campaign proper starts on May the 9th0 -
Labour canvassed me (in W2) yesterday.NickPalmer said:London Labour members have been issued with a handy dual-purpose poster - "Vote Sadiq for London May 5" on one side, then flip it over and it says "Labour In for Britain June 23" on the reverse. Not too suitable for a Tory area but good in Innner London.
I said I had a problem with Saddiq: how did I - or she - know that he wasn't saying one thing in the mosques and another elsewhere? She was, I felt, a little too quick to assure me that he would do no such thing, but she clearly didn't realise that class politics is so 20th century.
0 -
Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.0 -
I can see that argument. But for me the fact that AC, SG and CE are working for Remain makes me think that those three think Remain are going to win. And nothing more....TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
They don't have Sir Lynton, but they do have Jim Messina.TCPoliticalBetting said:
But they do not have Lynton Crosby looking at the overall picture and dictating the major messages. When Cooper was involved in GE2010 although working in a MR company, Cooper made little use of research to test the effectiveness of ideas. Hence why we had that awful manifesto and ideas such as Big Society that used up valuable media time.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
The new qualifying format is absolute pants. There are millions swilling around the sport, and this is the best they can come up with?Morris_Dancer said:F1: Manor 7th and 8th. Admittedly, that's because no lap times have been posted so the teams are listed in alphabetical order.
0 -
Agree entirely and have been saying so for ages. There is an element of Labour that despises the tories, at the same time they have no real interest in the EU one way or the other. They are smiling smugly in a win-win scenario, but their preferred outcome is posh tory boys being humiliated.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
Cameron is hoping his enemy votes for him.0 -
Nick - not sure if it was poor sentence structure (apologies if it was!_, but I was putting you up as a good example of a thinking MP vs Jess Philips as a rabble rousing, anti-Tory, unthinking Labour MP.NickPalmer said:Convincing article and good to see Sean F doing threads again - more welcome.
FPT: Mortimer, on the last thread, you puzzlingly accuse me of saying that Conservatives dislike steel workers and that I'm motivated by class prejudice. Eh?
I responded to Josias Jessop asking what the union position was, and I said that I thought they were asking for temporary renationalisation and pointing out that the Conservatives had supported that for the banks. I wouldn't generalise on whom Conservatives like and dislike, and think it's pretty irrelevant. Are they actually going to do anything to help?
I was pruning the grape vine at the time whilst listing to AQ, and was just furious at her suggesting Tories love bankers but don't like steel workers; not least because it was the sodding Labour party that (correctly) bailed out the banks.0 -
I understand micro-targeting works much better when you are up against Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, who have just unveiled a humorous monolith and denied they spend too much on Question Time, then its much more effective ....Sean_F said:
I don't micro-targeting matters much when the whole country is treated as a single constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.0 -
TSE Voter contact is rarely wasted. The best way to run canvassing is to first make contact with the voters well before the election period. Voters appreciate you are contacting them not just "only at election time". You have a better opportunity to sway their views if you contact them months in advance.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
0 -
And Poole too.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
Talent is inversely proportionate to wallet size.JosiasJessop said:
The new qualifying format is absolute pants. There are millions swilling around the sport, and this is the best they can come up with?Morris_Dancer said:F1: Manor 7th and 8th. Admittedly, that's because no lap times have been posted so the teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Look at the front benches of either party if you don't believe me.0 -
Mr. Jessop, aye. It's rubbish. Ho hum.0
-
This is a great article - thanks Sean Fear.0
-
This is great
Falkland Islands
April 2, 1982: "We have lots of new friends." #Falklands https://t.co/J9qPC5CYkk0 -
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.blackburn63 said:
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.Sean_F said:
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
0 -
Thanks. If middle class Conservatives go 55% for Leave, then I think it's game over. I think there's certainly a big minority of working class Labour voters who'll back Leave. With Labour voters, though, I think the big challenge is persuading them to turn out at all.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
0 -
We read on here unsubtle thoughts from REMAIN that they feel that Cameron has miraculous powers and can get people that voted for Miliband's Labour party at the GE to suddenly switch and back Cameron the more he and Osborne front the REMAIN campaign. That just does not make sense. people that were so loyal to Labour that they held their noses and voted for Miliband's Labour are not going to move to a Conservative fronted campaign. Do the folk at REMAIN not look at the awful ratings Osborne has? Even Cameron's ratings are these days nothing to boast about in that they are close to Corbyn FFS.blackburn63 said:
Agree entirely and have been saying so for ages. There is an element of Labour that despises the tories, at the same time they have no real interest in the EU one way or the other. They are smiling smugly in a win-win scenario, but their preferred outcome is posh tory boys being humiliated.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
Cameron is hoping his enemy votes for him.
0 -
Really? 5 million conversations would say otherwise.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE Voter contact is rarely wasted. The best way to run canvassing is to first make contact with the voters well before the election period. Voters appreciate you are contacting them not just "only at election time". You have a better opportunity to sway their views if you contact them months in advance.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
This is all about understanding what the specific voters' priorities are.
That's why last year we knew when we went to canvass Mr and Mrs Smith at 1 Accacia Avenue, their priorities were education, we talked to them about what the Tories have/would do for education.
When knew to miss out number Mr and Mrs Walker at Number 3, as they were ardent Labourites and us going would antagonise them and we'd be wasting our time, so we'd head straight to 5 Accacia Venue, where Mr and Mrs Green were worried about Defence, and we knew to talk to them about Trident/The SNP/Ed being weak and crap.0 -
Thanks for the article Sean - an excellent piece.Sean_F said:
Thanks. If middle class Conservatives go 55% for Leave, then I think it's game over. I think there's certainly a big minority of working class Labour voters who'll back Leave. With Labour voters, though, I think the big challenge is persuading them to turn out at all.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
I think this comment above is bang on. Turnout of 'Remainer' MC Tory voters is the key to this election.
Leave need only to calm the horses against Project Fear to pip it.0 -
My guesstimate s/s has 53.5% for Con voters with LEAVE. I also believe that Con voters that back LEAVE are going to have a higher turnout than Con voting REMAINERs as they are more motivated and older.Sean_F said:
Thanks. If middle class Conservatives go 55% for Leave, then I think it's game over. I think there's certainly a big minority of working class Labour voters who'll back Leave. With Labour voters, though, I think the big challenge is persuading them to turn out at all.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
0 -
The big irony for Dave is that his voter registration changes will have excluded far more Remainers from taking part in the referendum than Leavers. If the result is close that could matter a lot.0
-
That's credit to you, you are obviously polite at the door. As well as my own constituency I spent some time in Thanet South, the other parties found it hilarious. I had the misfortune to witness some conversations that made we cringe with embarrassment on doorsteps.Mortimer said:
I've often worried about the impact of poor canvassers, and you're very honest to apply it to your own party - but when speaking to householders I'm always amazed at how many (c5-10% of those who answer the door) each election thank me for calling and say some variation of 'you're the only one to have canvassed me, so I'll be voting for your party'.blackburn63 said:
I think you're being kind Sean, some of the Ukip canvassers are vote losers, just dreadful. They're well intentioned and enthusiastic but the term fruitcake doesn't do them justice.Sean_F said:
I've commented before about how UKIP activists do a lot of work, but outside of a few constituencies, it's not at all well co-ordinated, and I think the same is true of the Leave campaigns. I've done a lot of leafletting myself, but I don't think anyone's co-ordinating the effort in Luton.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.0 -
Horses for courses. Most of that micro targeting was in the marginals not UK wide. You also need canvassing data to work with the mosaic type of data and the troops able to ask it. Easier to do in circa 40 constituencies than in the whole of the UK.TheScreamingEagles said:
Really? 5 million conversations would say otherwise.TCPoliticalBetting said:
TSE Voter contact is rarely wasted. The best way to run canvassing is to first make contact with the voters well before the election period. Voters appreciate you are contacting them not just "only at election time". You have a better opportunity to sway their views if you contact them months in advance.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Leave are wasting valuable time, I've spoken to a few Leavers and they are doing a lot of this off their own bat and there's a lack of strategic focus from up above.Sean_F said:
Leave.EU were doing a lot of work today in Enfield.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now BSE are targeting voters whilst the various Leave groups are targeting each other.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that I am not the best target for Leave but that matches my experience.TheScreamingEagles said:
What makes me think Remain will win is that Andrew Cooper, Stephen Gilbert, and Craig Elder who ran the Tory micro targeting campaign at the general election are all working for Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
Fairly obvious then!TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you consider yourselffoxinsoxuk said:The map is pretty much as I expected, but what was the exact question asked?
Relatively eurosceptic
Mixed (leaning eurosceptic)
Mixed (close to median)
Mixed (leaning europhile)
Relatively europhile
Though with this being a referendum the micro geography may well be more subtle.
The Rose and Crown for Leave, Barcelonetta Tapas for Remain.
Perhaps as a real ale loving football fan in a leaning eurosceptic area I should have had something from Leave.
This is all about understanding what the specific voters' priorities are.
That's why last year we knew when we went to canvass Mr and Mrs Smith at 1 Accacia Avenue, their priorities were education, we talked to them about what the Tories have/would do for education.
When knew to miss out number Mr and Mrs Walker at Number 3, as they were ardent Labourites and us going would antagonise them and we'd be wasting our time, so we'd head straight to 5 Accacia Venue, where Mr and Mrs Green were worried about Defence, and we knew to talk to them about Trident/The SNP/Ed being weak and crap.
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I'm not involved in the campaign (well, I am loosely). If I was I'd drive buses around Port Talbot and northern labour towns showing pictures of Cameron and Osborne laughing next to an EU flag.TCPoliticalBetting said:
We read on here unsubtle thoughts from REMAIN that they feel that Cameron has miraculous powers and can get people that voted for Miliband's Labour party at the GE to suddenly switch and back Cameron the more he and Osborne front the REMAIN campaign. That just does not make sense. people that were so loyal to Labour that they held their noses and voted for Miliband's Labour are not going to move to a Conservative fronted campaign. Do the folk at REMAIN not look at the awful ratings Osborne has? Even Cameron's ratings are these days nothing to boast about in that they are close to Corbyn FFS.blackburn63 said:
Agree entirely and have been saying so for ages. There is an element of Labour that despises the tories, at the same time they have no real interest in the EU one way or the other. They are smiling smugly in a win-win scenario, but their preferred outcome is posh tory boys being humiliated.TCPoliticalBetting said:Sean Fear. Thanks for this thought provoking article. Always a high quality article from you, which also manage to be impartial and should be noted as the way to write by others!
That said just one point I disagree with "In my view, middle class Conservatives are the key swing voters in this campaign." This is the group that REMAIN think they have to win probably driven by the infamous Andrew Cooper. REMAIN are expending vast amounts of precious media time on a group that is going to split circa 55% to LEAVE. They may shift over 1% but thankfully REMAIN are neglecting the GE2015 working class Labour supporters (Mrs Duffy etc). Fronting campaigns with Conservative party PM and cabinet ministers is going to have a bad reaction from this group. This may already be having an effect and be the reason why REMAIN are not 15% ahead, despite the government rigged pre-election period.
Cameron is hoping his enemy votes for him.
That would match anything Crosby can come up with.0
