Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

My money is on these people giving Boris a bloody nose – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 14 in General
imageMy money is on these people giving Boris a bloody nose – politicalbetting.com

Smarkets have just opened their market on the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election and the initial odds are very similar to the start of betting Chesham and Amersham in May. I have had a punt on Labour at 20/1 which is the same as my first at Chesham.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    Labour only need a 21% swing.

    lol.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    edited October 14
    Second like the Tories.

    (Well, one can live in hope!)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,637
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Not great numbers today.

    United Kingdom Daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) Report · Thursday 14th October.

    45,066 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 8,317,439.

    157 new deaths reported, giving a total of 138,237. https://t.co/BPuWMl5YlG

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1448665914514231297?t=GSz9Nz0jD6jZQQZ8hSULcA&s=19

    Slightly ominous increase in admissions too, up 11% week on week.

    Eek
    Why eek? Have been reassured by people on here repeatedly that Covid is Over. That the months of sustained 30-40k new cases a day is no concern. That if anything it would be good if we went out and caught Covid.

    Surely the pray the pox away argument can't be false?
    I think the reason for the Eek is that Leon has a tendency to be melodramatic.

    Pray anything away is always ridiculous.

    Vaccinate and learn to live with it on the other hand . . .
    "Eek" is hardly hysterical

    I can do hysterical and that was not it
    "Oh god, oh god, we're all gonna die?"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    Are LibDems going to put in a big effort to prise voters form the Tories - to let Labour in through the middle? That would be very generous of them.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,514
    edited October 14

    Are LibDems going to put in a big effort to prise voters form the Tories - to let Labour in through the middle? That would be very generous of them.

    LD money is basically a Green spend now.

    PS edit. Sorry Mike, but I firmly believe the LDs are history.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 552
    Highly unlikely, and even 20:1 feels par rather than value. One thing that might be in Labour's favour is a squeeze of third parties is more like in a byelection if there is a clear challenger. I don't see any sign of the Lib Dems wanting to fight this one aggressively. The Green vote may be a bit more sticky though I don't think it was very high anyway in the last election.

    Bexley is a leave constituency and very much in the mould of others on both sides of the estuary. It has seen a bit of migration from central London so it notably younger and more diverse looking than a few years ago but still feels like Tory heartland.

    The only other possible fly in the ointment is that the petrol shortages have been pretty severe around SE London. But they're slowly getting back to normal now so will be ancient history by the time this is contested.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    The Lib Dems have a history of being by-election campaigners, plus they can appeal to NIMBYs etc

    Labour? There?

    Don't see it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 552

    Are LibDems going to put in a big effort to prise voters form the Tories - to let Labour in through the middle? That would be very generous of them.

    No
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,735
    This thread is second in the list, making it look like the old thread, not the new one.

  • John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    4m
    “Does Labour have a better than 5% chance of pulling this off?”
    @MSmithsonPB
    asks a #QTWTAIN re by-election in James Brokenshire’s seat https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/14/my-money-is-on-these-people-giving-boris-a-bloody-nose/
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1448681326001938432
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,509
    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    Fingers crossed the Lib Dems and Labour both run hard on this one, and split the vote between them.

    Meanwhile, if the Tories find a well-known local candidate, who can campaign on continuing the legacy of the well-respected and very sadly departed Mr Brokenshire….
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,357
    Looks like deaths are now clearly rising again.

    Everyone says look at date of death stats - but the problem is you get fooled by the backdating.

    If the rate of backdating is constant then the date of report stats provide the earliest clue of what's happening - and they show deaths now rising.

    And even looking at date of death you now see the curve flattening from 27 Sept onwards (graph on website with 7 day average correctly centred) - not completely flat but wait a few more days and add in the backdated deaths and it'll be just about flat and then it'll start rising again from around 10 Oct.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    OGH setting SKS up to fail?

    Naughty! :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,923
    TimT said:

    This thread is second in the list, making it look like the old thread, not the new one.

    A bit like Labour then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited October 14
    Labour have zero chance of winning Old Bexley and Sidcup.

    Bexley was 63% Leave, Chesham and Amersham was Remain by contrast.

    There are no HS2 or Nimby issues in Bexley, it is not an area with much greenbelt or with much new housing proposed compared to the Home Counties.

    The Tories will romp home, the main question will be whether Labour, ReformUK or the LDs come second. In 2015 UKIP were just 0.8% behind Labour for second place in the seat
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Good.

    DIT's job is the economy.

    Let COP26 etc deal with the environment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589

    157 new deaths reported, giving a total of 138,237. https://t.co/BPuWMl5YlG

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1448665914514231297?t=GSz9Nz0jD6jZQQZ8hSULcA&s=19

    Slightly ominous increase in admissions too, up 11% week on week.



    Eek

    Why eek? Have been reassured by people on here repeatedly that Covid is Over. That the months of sustained 30-40k new cases a day is no concern. That if anything it would be good if we went out and caught Covid.

    Surely the pray the pox away argument can't be false?

    Is that the UK now more than double the daily cases of the entire EU?

    No its not. But the EU isn't testing and finding its cases in the way the UK is. The UK should copy the EU in this instance and stop all this incessant testing.

    image

    Thats a LD winning here graph.

    Appears the Country (uk) with 45,000 cases a day and only 157 new deaths is doing brilliantly compared to say Germany with 2700 new cases and 15 new deaths

    UK winning here
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    edited October 14
    Deleted because aaaargh bored
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Good news, for anyone except the militant Greens and motorway-blockers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Not great numbers today.

    United Kingdom Daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) Report · Thursday 14th October.

    45,066 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 8,317,439.

    157 new deaths reported, giving a total of 138,237. https://t.co/BPuWMl5YlG

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1448665914514231297?t=GSz9Nz0jD6jZQQZ8hSULcA&s=19

    Slightly ominous increase in admissions too, up 11% week on week.

    Eek
    Why eek? Have been reassured by people on here repeatedly that Covid is Over. That the months of sustained 30-40k new cases a day is no concern. That if anything it would be good if we went out and caught Covid.

    Surely the pray the pox away argument can't be false?
    I think the reason for the Eek is that Leon has a tendency to be melodramatic.

    Pray anything away is always ridiculous.

    Vaccinate and learn to live with it on the other hand . . .
    "Eek" is hardly hysterical

    I can do hysterical and that was not it
    "Oh god, oh god, we're all gonna die?"
    We're gonna explode? I don't wanna explode.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,399
    Agreed about C and A, and made a few bob. At this moment don't agree about Labour having much chance here. When the LDs were at 20s and 10s for C and A it was evident to people who knew over decades how by elections worked that the LDs should be odds on.

    I don't get that feeling here, so wait and see for now would be my view.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    The tables for that Kantar Poll - 156 pages!

    Rejoin/Stay out EU 50/50

    NI Tax Rises Support/Oppose 44/27

    Trust on social care Con & Lab tied

    Satisfied w vaccine Rollout yes no 74/18

    Govt handling of pandemic well/poorly 47/45


    https://www.kantarpublic.com/download/documents/257/September+barometer+final+tables_v2.pdf

  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    isam said:

    The tables for that Kantar Poll - 156 pages!

    Rejoin/Stay out EU 50/50

    NI Tax Rises Support/Oppose 44/27

    Trust on social care Con & Lab tied

    Satisfied w vaccine Rollout yes no 74/18

    Govt handling of pandemic well/poorly 47/45


    https://www.kantarpublic.com/download/documents/257/September+barometer+final+tables_v2.pdf

    Voting intentions (Note: the majority of fieldwork was conducted prior to the weekend when the Labour Party’s 2021 Annual Conference took place and fuel stations began experiencing shortages):
    Con 43% (+6 vs August 2021)
    Lab 30% (-4)
    L Dem 11% (-3)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (nc)
    Reform UK (formerly Brexit Party) 1% (-1)
    UKIP 1% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
    Other 1% (+1)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,788
    The good thing here is that you can go small stakes on the red side and still get a handy return if it comes in.

    I imagine OGH's book here will be orders of magnitude smaller than at C&A, and with more of an eye to trading. This has more to do, perhaps, with Events than with faith in the awesome prowess of Labour by election campaigning.

    But I'm sure he can speak for himself.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,281
    This seat had a chunky 18% UKIP vote in 2015. I'd be a bit surprised if the Tories fell below 60%, though I suppose it could happen on a low turnout if Labour voters are more motivated to vote.

    That's assuming equally competent candidate selection.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,227
    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    edited October 14
    Last time, turnout was damn near 70%. To keep the numbers easier, let's say it was 30,000 Conservative, 11,000 Labour.

    On a reduced turnout of 52.5%, that would pro rata down to 22,500 Con, 8,750 Labour.

    So on that reduced turnout, Labour would need say 2,250 of the 3,800 2019 LibDems PLUS 5,750 of those 22,500 as direct Conservative to Labour switchers.

    The current polling is showing nothing close to that level of Tory vote evaporating, either in opinion polls or in by-elections.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,482
    It would certainly change the political dynamic a lot if Labour won but I think the chances are low. Probably sub 5% unless something happens to change the political weather, which I guess is what OGH is betting on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,714
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    lol, oh no!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Leon said:

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth
    Don't worry, well get plenty of warning of it being detected in another country first and or strong border controls (thanks Brexit) mean we will be able to keep it out as we prepare a response.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,509
    Leon said:

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth

    With supply shortages, and power cuts.

    one might almost describe it as a winter of discontent..?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,090
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth
    Don't worry, well get plenty of warning of it being detected in another country first and or strong border controls (thanks Brexit) mean we will be able to keep it out as we prepare a response.
    Whitty mentioned the chance of a new variant this morning. Unlikely, but not impossible

    I'm not sure society could endure it. Going through it all again
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,482
    Is it wrong to hope that cases reach something in the region of 55,000?*

    * this is a train joke. Of course I want cases to go down, even if that means a picture of a Class 20.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,714
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth

    With supply shortages, and power cuts.

    one might almost describe it as a winter of discontent..?
    The supply chains are straining because activity higher as the economy restarts. Put it back into lockdown and activity will decrease substantially.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606
    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    God preserve us. Another, nastier variant as we go onto winter. Another lockdown.

    It's a vision of hell on earth

    With supply shortages, and power cuts.

    one might almost describe it as a winter of discontent..?
    That Kleenex shortage is now explained....
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,007
    As a Labour loyalist, I'd put the chances of us winning Old Bexley & Sidcup at precisely zero. I'd rather keep my money in an account paying 0.1% than bet on this one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,287
    There seems to be a problem with the reporting feed API, so I can't run my usual stuff.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,788

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(

    I think it's a diminishing threat.

    To go from a R=3 -> 4 variant raises herd immunity raises herd immunity bar by 8%

    To go from an R=6 -> 7 variant raises herd immunity bar by 2%

    And one imagines as one goes up the R scale that there are fewer possible genetic variations that achieve this lesser result.

    The variants I'd be looking out for are (i) one that is more optimised to infect younger children as older children are vaccinated (ii) one that is far better at reinfection, which implies milder illness (because immunity still helps), lower R (genetic trade off), but inevitably creeps a little further each time into the non-immune.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    We don't know when this by-election will be, nor who will be the candidates yet.
    Nevertheless, 20's doesn’t strike me instantly as value. C+A did, although I expected it to be a loser.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589


    157 new deaths reported, giving a total of 138,237. https://t.co/BPuWMl5YlG

    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1448665914514231297?t=GSz9Nz0jD6jZQQZ8hSULcA&s=19

    Slightly ominous increase in admissions too, up 11% week on week.

    Eek

    Why eek? Have been reassured by people on here repeatedly that Covid is Over. That the months of sustained 30-40k new cases a day is no concern. That if anything it would be good if we went out and caught Covid.

    Surely the pray the pox away argument can't be false?

    Is that the UK now more than double the daily cases of the entire EU?

    No its not. But the EU isn't testing and finding its cases in the way the UK is. The UK should copy the EU in this instance and stop all this incessant testing.

    image

    Thats a LD winning here graph.

    Appears the Country (uk) with 45,000 cases a day and only 157 new deaths is doing brilliantly compared to say Germany with 2700 new cases and 15 new deaths

    UK winning here

    Were back in 1,000 deaths a week category.

    150k deaths by Xmas at this rate
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(


    Didn't one of the people who helped create the AZ vaccine recently say the chances of a variant emerging that gets around the vaccine is very low?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Princess Nut Nut is going to lose her shit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606
    Omnium said:

    Are LibDems going to put in a big effort to prise voters form the Tories - to let Labour in through the middle? That would be very generous of them.

    LD money is basically a Green spend now.

    PS edit. Sorry Mike, but I firmly believe the LDs are history.
    If we had PR, that would probably be correct.

    But we don't.

    For the Greens to be the third party in the UK, they need to start winning seats and byelections. They need to be fighting Labour to win in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

    But they simply don't seem that bothered by winning power.

    And nature abhors a vacuum. If the LDs are fighting the byelections (both council and parliamentary), and the Greens are not, then the LDs will continue to be the third party in England.
  • On topic, I'm expecting a sympathy vote for the Tories.

    James Brokenshire was a top bloke.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606
    dixiedean said:

    We don't know when this by-election will be, nor who will be the candidates yet.
    Nevertheless, 20's doesn’t strike me instantly as value. C+A did, although I expected it to be a loser.

    Yes.

    I thought C&A was a value loser, and the right price should be around a 15% probability, not a 5% one.

    I don't think 20-1 is value, because I don't think the Labour Party is setup to fight a byelection on the Conservatives' turf. I think this will be a fairly comfortable Conservative hold.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,835

    On topic, I'm expecting a sympathy vote for the Tories.

    James Brokenshire was a top bloke.

    Unfortunately a very poor Housing Minsiter, however.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    Perhaps a more interesting market would be an over/under on the Tory share?
    Maybe around 53%?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Great.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    What do you get when you cross a joke with a rhetorical question?
  • What do you get when you cross a joke with a rhetorical question?

    "Kermit the Frog"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,227
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    No! The PB Brains Trust have told us that masks are unnecessary, and wearing them is, in fact, a harm to children ...
  • Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Great.
    This is why Boris will just continue his popularity as the left/ FBPE just do not get it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive - leaked DIT documents suggests put economy before environmental goals in trade deals

    Full story:

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-trade-deals-should-prioritise-economic-growth-over-environmental-protections-leaked-govt-document-12433808

    Well done DIT, staying in their lane.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    edited October 14

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    Didn’t you say the motivating factors for having a bet in by elections for you were Leave vote percentage and number of Graduates in the constituency? Neither of those point to Labour in this case, unlike Chesham as far as I can tell, so what’s your thinking here?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606
    edited October 14

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And I agreed with you.

    But I think you're wrong here.

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see Labour throwing everything at this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    I'm genuinely surprised at this, I'd have expected lasting it out.

    A police boss whose comments on the Sarah Everard case sparked outrage has resigned hours after a no-confidence vote.

    North Yorkshire Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner Philip Allott had faced sustained criticism for urging women to be "streetwise" in a radio interview. The backlash culminated in the unanimous vote passed by the county's Police, Fire and Crime panel.

    In response Mr Allott said he would "do the decent thing" and leave his post
    .

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-58915325
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,227
    Ah, a split-headcode Peak. Heaven.
  • kle4 said:

    I'm genuinely surprised at this, I'd have expected lasting it out.

    A police boss whose comments on the Sarah Everard case sparked outrage has resigned hours after a no-confidence vote.

    North Yorkshire Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner Philip Allott had faced sustained criticism for urging women to be "streetwise" in a radio interview. The backlash culminated in the unanimous vote passed by the county's Police, Fire and Crime panel.

    In response Mr Allott said he would "do the decent thing" and leave his post
    .

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-58915325

    Now being hired to be the new gender issues editor on GBeebies.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    edited October 14
    “The alleged bow and arrow terrorist who killed five people in Norway has been identified as Muslim convert Espen Andersen Bråthen.

    The 37-year-old was arrested on Wednesday in the town of Kongsberg, some 42 miles from Oslo, following a rampage which took place in different locations in the town.

    In a video on his Facebook, which Norwegian media said was flagged to police in 2017, Bråthen said in English: "Hello. I'm a messenger. I come with a warning. Is this really what you want? And for all who want to make up for themselves, so it's time. Bear witness that I am a Muslim."

    Norway's intelligence service deemed the attack an "act of terror". Police have said suspect was a “convert to Islam” who had been “radicalised”. Bråthen reportedly attended an Islamic centre in Kongsberg two years ago.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/14/norway-bow-attacker-muslim-convert-known-police-radicalisation/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    edited October 14
    An interesting article, but I'm not sure I agree on this point:

    "Starmer has got to seize this opportunity and claim what would be an enormous symbolic scalp – taking the former seat of Ted Heath. A victory would transform his leadership."

    I doubt many people care who was MP for a seat decades ago. And mid term by-elections may provide a glow for a few weeks, but won't overcome Starmer's cowardice, dullness and lack of political judgement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Fishing said:

    An interesting article, but I'm not sure I agree on this point:

    "Starmer has got to seize this opportunity and claim what would be an enormous symbolic scalp – taking the former seat of Ted Heath. A victory would transform his leadership."

    I doubt many people care who was MP for a seat decades ago. And mid term by-elections may provide a glow for a few weeks, but won't overcome Starmer's cowardice, dullness and lack of political judgement.

    I think it can add some spice to events, like Labour losing Sedgefield, but is not a big deal in itself. Simply taking such a safe seat would be a big enough event that the Heath connection would get lost, even if it was held by him not that long ago.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,996
    rcs1000 said:

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And I agreed with you.

    But I think you're wrong here.

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see Labour throwing everything at this.
    Surely events are more relevant than what Labour do here? For this bet to win I think there needs to be further chaotic disruption in the immediate run up to the by-election. Whereas if things go smoothly whilst Labour run a perfect campaign I can't see them getting close.

    Not convinced it is a value bet, but events do make it hard to price. Wait and see for me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And in a seat like this if the other people are right 24 times out of 25 then they'd be right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited October 14
    HYUFD said:

    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20

    Fortunately, people are able to decide what they want to spend their own money on however. It's 'better' on space than another super yacht (which they probably already have).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20

    Fortunately, people are able to decide what they want to spend their own money on however.
    Its a stupid question.

    Its like saying which is more important: Water or Dom Perignon?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    Then you'd expect London to be the epicentre of case growth.

    It is not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606

    rcs1000 said:

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And I agreed with you.

    But I think you're wrong here.

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see Labour throwing everything at this.
    Surely events are more relevant than what Labour do here? For this bet to win I think there needs to be further chaotic disruption in the immediate run up to the by-election. Whereas if things go smoothly whilst Labour run a perfect campaign I can't see them getting close.

    Not convinced it is a value bet, but events do make it hard to price. Wait and see for me.
    Fair point.

    I just haven't seen Labour really throw everything at a byelection in years - probably not since the 2012 Corby byelection. (Although I'd argue they threw everything at defending Batley & Spen.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20

    Fortunately, people are able to decide what they want to spend their own money on however.
    Its a stupid question.
    Not at all, I for one think it is impossible tackle the climate crisis and also do other things or have other interests. If you are interested in other things you don't care about the environment, period.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,341
    For players of Civ 6 Jadwiga of Poland got a mention on In Our Time this morning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Slade, I think my only Polish victory came by accident. I was either going for culture and won by religion, or the other way around.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    On this ****** pox:

    I'm not hearing much about variants in the news. I think we can just about cope with the current variants: but is there a chance that a more transmissible / more injurious variant is sneaking up on us?

    Given the excellent genomics here in the UK, probably not. But it's something to look out for. Sadly. :(

    Delta is ‘winning’. It has suppressed all the other variants in the U.K. It’s tempting to wonder why our case rates are so high, and indeed our deaths, but I think it’s down to more testing, combined with no restrictions and limited personal precautions, and not getting on with the kids doses, thanks to the jcvi. I’d be interested in other countries rates as compared by ons type sampling, but it’s hard to come by. I think we will see the kids rates come down in the next month. Anecdotally they must all have had it or have it now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,727
    I think there’s more chance of the Lib Dems winning this seat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,637
    tlg86 said:

    I think there’s more chance of the Lib Dems winning this seat.

    :lol:

    image
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,702
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And I agreed with you.

    But I think you're wrong here.

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see Labour throwing everything at this.
    Surely events are more relevant than what Labour do here? For this bet to win I think there needs to be further chaotic disruption in the immediate run up to the by-election. Whereas if things go smoothly whilst Labour run a perfect campaign I can't see them getting close.

    Not convinced it is a value bet, but events do make it hard to price. Wait and see for me.
    Fair point.

    I just haven't seen Labour really throw everything at a byelection in years - probably not since the 2012 Corby byelection. (Although I'd argue they threw everything at defending Batley & Spen.)
    I just don't see how Labour does it here.

    Yes, they won B&S but they threw everything at it because, if they hadn't, SKS would have faced a challenge. Plus they had a strong candidate. Plus they already held the seat. Plus they had quite favourable demographics. And the Tories will probably get a sympathy vote.

    Nor does Old Bexley have the HS2 issue, the housing planning issue and so on to help the LDs. And the Tories will be a lot more wise to the game.

    I just do not see how this is anything other than a Tory hold unless there is a major problem before polling day.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,637
    rcs1000 said:

    I will be quoting in a separate thread how people responded when I said the LDs were value at 20/1 in Chesham.

    And I agreed with you.

    But I think you're wrong here.

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see Labour throwing everything at this.
    "Daddy can I play?"

    :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,622
    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    Then you'd expect London to be the epicentre of case growth.

    It is not.
    No, it seems to be the county rather than the city round my way too. Numbers are drifting up in my hospital along the national trend.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,574
    edited October 14
    Mike’s bet is surely a trading, rather than a real one. With more bad news between now and polling day, the odds of the principal opponent (which looks like Labour from the off) would come in, allowing him to slice a small profit (particularly if readers of the article follow him in ;) ). I can’t see any logic for suggesting that Labour is in any position to pull off a surprise here. Indeed without any hype, the opening odds are probably about right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,727
    Obviously when Labour were in government, but remember this...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-election
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,606
    Fishing said:

    An interesting article, but I'm not sure I agree on this point:

    "Starmer has got to seize this opportunity and claim what would be an enormous symbolic scalp – taking the former seat of Ted Heath. A victory would transform his leadership."

    I doubt many people care who was MP for a seat decades ago. And mid term by-elections may provide a glow for a few weeks, but won't overcome Starmer's cowardice, dullness and lack of political judgement.

    Starmer has to establish a reputation as a winner. This means that he has to turn up to these byelections with everything the Labour Party has and to try and win.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,399
    edited October 14
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are LibDems going to put in a big effort to prise voters form the Tories - to let Labour in through the middle? That would be very generous of them.

    LD money is basically a Green spend now.

    PS edit. Sorry Mike, but I firmly believe the LDs are history.
    If we had PR, that would probably be correct.

    But we don't.

    For the Greens to be the third party in the UK, they need to start winning seats and byelections. They need to be fighting Labour to win in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

    But they simply don't seem that bothered by winning power.

    And nature abhors a vacuum. If the LDs are fighting the byelections (both council and parliamentary), and the Greens are not, then the LDs will continue to be the third party in England.
    There are one and a half parties and sets of voters who actually want the responsibility of power. The Tories and the half of the Labour party that is broadly sane centrist left social democrat.

    If LD supporters actually wanted the grinding responsibility of power they would have turned out early and often in 2015, 2017 and 2019 to make sure they did even better than in 2010, and had a greater say in government. Instead, faced with the actual compromises of reality they didn't.

    If the left of Labour wanted power they would be reaching out to Tory voters with reasoned argument. They just need a few million of the scum to be persuaded, and they are home and dry.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,835
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    Then you'd expect London to be the epicentre of case growth.

    It is not.
    No, it seems to be the county rather than the city round my way too. Numbers are drifting up in my hospital along the national trend.
    I had a conversation with my D nurse at a checkup yesterday, and she said they had Covid patients in, but that other things were not under intolerable pressure. So OK but could be better.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    Then you'd expect London to be the epicentre of case growth.

    It is not.
    No, it seems to be the county rather than the city round my way too. Numbers are drifting up in my hospital along the national trend.
    East of England Region appears to be on an exciting upswing. West Midlands has been on a slow and steady rise since the end of July.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 948
    In C&A a large part of the LD victory was fears about planning reform. The tories have now junked this.

    I just don't see what hook the labour party has in Bexley and Sidcup. How would anything be any different with a labour MP? Or, for that part, a labour government?



  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,199
    edited October 14
    Hmm. Possible Labour might sneak it. These constituents will have been voting Tory for decades and know Boris well from his London mayoral days. So there'll be no novelty value with Boris or feeling that a vote against him will demonstrate one's own recent gullibility. The Tories might be due a kicking here.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    I think 5% is fine value. Essentially the analysis is that the Conservative Party has a weak record in defending by-elections from government. Now it may require something to go badly wrong. If it does, they could lose, and if that happens, it will almost surely be to Labour.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,702
    Apart from the obvious question of whether Sinema will leave the Democrat caucus at some point, had anyone heard of the phrase "birddogging" before?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/were-going-to-make-her-life-unpleasant-activists-arent-finished-with-kyrsten-sinema/ar-AAPtVW0?li=BBnb7Kz
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,835
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20

    Fortunately, people are able to decide what they want to spend their own money on however.
    Its a stupid question.
    Not at all, I for one think it is impossible tackle the climate crisis and also do other things or have other interests. If you are interested in other things you don't care about the environment, period.
    That's a strange way to view it imo, if you are not allowed to be interested in anything else.

    The logic of that is that everything else must stop. No going outside. No cooking boiled heggs for breakfast. No building a new local park. No driving down to the shops. No holidays. No building new houses. No other scientific research.

    Surely there must be a balance and a list of priorities?

    For me, C02 use in space research is probably de minimis in the scale of things anyway, and may well help dealing with the 'climate crisis'.

    But William has walked away from the Royal Family, so unlike the environment he is of no interest to me at all. Yes, I think it is a stupid question.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's been a lot of talk about how we're doing lots of testing, and therefore finding a lot more cases than other countries.

    And we are certainly doing more testing than most.

    What you probably should look at is test positivity rates. How many tests come back positive? Because countries with really high test positivity rates are missing a lot of cases.

    Ukraine's test positivity rate is 30%. So is Serbia's.

    The UK's is 4%.

    Portugal is 2%.
    Italy and France are 1%.

    So, I'm not sure "it's because we're testing more" is the sole answer behind why we're finding more cases.

    See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing for details

    May have summat to do with the much increased number of folk coughing and sneezing all over public transport without, masks in the past couple of weeks.
    Just an idea.
    Then you'd expect London to be the epicentre of case growth.

    It is not.
    No, it seems to be the county rather than the city round my way too. Numbers are drifting up in my hospital along the national trend.
    East of England Region appears to be on an exciting upswing. West Midlands has been on a slow and steady rise since the end of July.
    Oof, looks like the east midlands is going to beat it's july football peak in a few days.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,366
    tlg86 said:

    Obviously when Labour were in government, but remember this...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-election

    That was quite an important by election because it wasn't long after that that El Gord's Forces From Hell moved against Lord Blair...
  • MrEd said:

    Apart from the obvious question of whether Sinema will leave the Democrat caucus at some point, had anyone heard of the phrase "birddogging" before?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/were-going-to-make-her-life-unpleasant-activists-arent-finished-with-kyrsten-sinema/ar-AAPtVW0?li=BBnb7Kz

    Yes, means a few things in my world.

    To harass with nasty intentions.

    It also means to steal another guy's girlfriend.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,837
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    68% of voters agree with Prince William that tackling the climate crisis on earth is more important than the space race, just 2% of voters think the space race is more important and 12% think both of equal importance
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1448670876703109130?s=20

    Fortunately, people are able to decide what they want to spend their own money on however.
    Its a stupid question.
    Not at all, I for one think it is impossible tackle the climate crisis and also do other things or have other interests. If you are interested in other things you don't care about the environment, period.
    That's a strange way to view it imo, if you are not allowed to be interested in anything else.

    The logic of that is that everything else must stop. No going outside. No cooking boiled heggs for breakfast. No building a new local park. No driving down to the shops. No holidays. No building new houses. No other scientific research.

    Surely there must be a balance and a list of priorities?

    For me, C02 use in space research is probably de minimis in the scale of things anyway, and may well help dealing with the 'climate crisis'.

    But William has walked away from the Royal Family, so unlike the environment he is of no interest to me at all. Yes, I think it is a stupid question.
    i. he was joking ii. that's harry.
This discussion has been closed.