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YouGov has the worst LAB VI but Starmer closest as “Best PM” – politicalbetting.com
YouGov has the worst LAB VI but Starmer closest as “Best PM” – politicalbetting.com
The latest YouGov poll has CON up to a double digit lead which as can be seen above is totally out of line with other firms. Looking at the detail the Tory share is within the same range as other firms but YouGov’s Green total is markedly higher and the LAB one markedly less.
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The issue for Cameron etc is in their opinion the 'wrong side' won.
An American Civil War has the same issue. The 'wrong side' would probably win it. 😕
Boris has a major lead over Keir in every poll it seems to me glancing at it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Keir's gross approval ratings are consistently down in the 20s now while Boris's are generally in the high thirties.
Via @b_muzz @sidyoutwit 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/maersk-diverts-ships-from-jammed-u-k-ports-short-on-truckers
The thing is, there is a legitimate point in there somewhere, tucked away behind the bullshit. Being transgender will bring a whole load of issues and one of those likely is that it's hard to secure a sexual/life partner. That will make life harder. It's a legitimate thing to study and report on - as it links to possible reasons for greater mental health issues in the transgender community (although there's a chicken-egg question there too, the two can be intertwined). There may be practical solutions, helping people come to terms with that, dating apps that can link people who are transgender (assuming they'd be more open to those relationships) or non-transgender people similarly relaxed about it. What it is not, is evidence of a horrible society, any more than the fact that many people find their dating pools restricted by appearance, itelligence, social confidence, wealth, age etc etc.
Sky actually reported on it in detail and affirmed this is not just a UK issue
Survation are 11% but Opinium are nearer to YGs 6
What will be interesting is whether YouGov are right on the Green/Other shares and whether that would survive an actual election.
*I like Starmer more than Johnson. It doesn't mean I'm going to vote Labour - I probably would in a Lab/Con marginal, but elsewhere I'll likely vote for neither Con nor Lab.
Useless nonentity supporters please explain.
FPT excellent politics locally by Tories. Infrastructure everywhere you look.
https://www.chesterfield.gov.uk/media/1485734/staveley-town-investment-plan-part-1.pdf
However that requires disilluisioned Corbyniytes to vote Labour not Green in marginal seats and the LDs and SNP to gain seats from the Tories as well as Labour so Boris loses his majority
I also think, somewhat tentatively, is that the right not to be discriminated against has to be weighed against other rights from groups that are also oppressed. So, to take Philip's question earlier, is it right to exclude those who may choose to identify as female from a woman's refuge seeking to protect the victims of male violence? I say yes it is because their rights to protection and fear of men overrides the need of the self identifier to be treated as if they were a woman in every case and circumstance.
A thrashing much more likely.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/does-keir-starmer-look-like-a-prime-minister-in-waiting
Why would anyone switch to voting Labour except out of despair or disgust at Boris? Starmer has announced no distinct programme or even any discernible philosophy. He can't rely on the old defaults like investment and health because Boris has already pinched them after they proved popular for Corbyn in 2017. What's the point of Starmer? What's the point of Labour?
The details of the analysis now escape me but if the principle is right do the odds against an increase in the Tory majority at the next election seriously understate the probability of this happening? A swing back from here moves us into landslide territory.
Labour, it seems to me, is not in a happy place. Their leader is not inspiring and the options in Parliament, at least, are poor. They have a very weak shadow cabinet and seem to be annoying many of their natural supporters. The government is struggling against a sea of troubles at the moment but still seems to have a sense of purpose if not consistency. I am increasingly tempted to risk a few quid on this.
When the electorate wakes up to the fact that the PM hasn't got a Scooby on all matters, not just NI, they will need to ask themselves whether they can stomach Angela Rayner as a cabinet member. I want to see the back of The Clown, but I am still not sure Labour are ready or serious enough (that is in spite of Johnson)
Do I remember it right that Howard mentored Cameron into the role, and that it was generally understood that Osborne would be part of the package if Cameron won the leadership election? Is Starmer doing the same? Not very obvious if he is.
Are we sure that Starmer isn't in fact the William Hague figure? Sounding sensible in the Commons but making next to no headway electorally even against the benchmark of inheriting a party after a landslide defeat? If so we might expect a silly choice for next leader after him, perhaps Granny Ange. And the next Labour PM may in fact be someone not yet even in Parliament.
Labour clearly needs more than its own efforts if it is to win next time. Above all, it needs a sustained Lib Dem recovery to split the anti-Labour vote, just as it was the split anti-Brexit vote in 2019 that gave such enormous dividends to Boris Johnson.
https://www.theblandfordgrouppractice.co.uk/
To paraphrase somebody recently:
"I took a holiday from voting Labour last time. Corbyn, you know. But, I have to say, going on your holidays gives you a chance to reflect on things....like why would I want to go back to a shit-hole?"
Welcome to Britain, the bank scam capital of the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2001_United_Kingdom_general_election
Howard also gained 33 seats in 2005, if Starmer gained 33 seats in 2023/24 and the LDs and SNP combined gained 15 seats from the Tories it would be a hung parliament
Definitely very disappointed by these poll results.
I honestly don't know what makes someone electable & I don't think other people know either. I remember being confidently assured that Starmer was the sensible, electable choice Labour members had to make... He could unite the party, he looked like a leader who had real world experience of running things etc.
If there is anything in swing back they would need to be about 20% ahead right now, not behind.
My recollection is that the rather neat association was demolished in the following general election, which was unfortunate.
But I do agree with you that the chance of an increased Tory majority is underestimated. The government has many advantages. It can choose the timing of the election. It can put cash into pockets on a matching timeframe. There's a history of disgruntled protest voters returning to the government party to, "cling to nurse for fear of worse."
The political landscape is not friendly to Labour. There is considerable leeway for electoral performance to deteriorate further regardless of the merits or otherwise of the party leader.
Lebanon, for example, has also been experiencing petrol shortages of late; ergo the UK's petrol shortages were Nothing To Do With Brexit.
Also Kinnock had a much more credible and effective government to attack. He even managed to score the odd point. But SKS has been there a year and a half and I can't think of a single major point he's scored - the best hits against HMG have come from either its own supporters, like Dominic Cummings, or figures outside politics like that footballer.
No bin liners, for some reason
18$ approve
62$ disapprove
Kinabalu would applaud this exact logic when applied to racial differences. In a few years, he'll either be applauding it when it comes to the dating market or - like Graham Linehan - he'll be having bile poured on his head by the people he used to stand alongside.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/keir-starmer-approval-rating?crossBreak=c2de
Coincidentally, I've just had a conversation with a friend in the rail industry, who confirmed this but offered a few interesting nuances. He confirmed what CR said - that the commute market has recovered poorly, but that leisure travel has come back very strongly indeed. Consequently, weekend travel is very strong - Sundays are now back above pre-pandemic levels (which is bringing about a battle with the RMT, who refuse to see Sunday as part of their regular working week).
Further interesting nuances are:
The south east recovery is the weakest (as the SE market was that most dependent on commuting). In the SE, commuting traffic is well under 50% of pre-pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, in the north, demand is back to 85%+ of what it was pre-pandemic levels, and revenue is back to 90%+ of what it was pre-pandemic (the discrepancy primarily explained by fewer season tickets, which are cheaper per journey).
There has been a trend towards fewer, but longer commuter journeys (so, for example, there might be fewer journeys-to-work in Manchester from commuter suburbs like Cheadle Hulme as people work from home, or sometimes work from home, but this has been counterbalanced by people making slightly longer journeys as it becomes more attractive to live somewhere like Buxton and commute into Manchester one or two days a week.
All of which, arguably, is merely the acceleration of a trend which was happening pre-covid.
Seats like Devon North and Cornwall North have majorities around 15,000. Torbay that they held until 2015 is nearly 18,000. "Bollocks to Brexit" proved entirely out of synch with many former supporters down here.
The SE is going to have to do the heavy lifting. Heavy lifting it failed to deliver in the white heat of Brexit in 2017 and 2019.
"Lisa Nandy reignites Labour trans rights row as leadership contender says male child rapists who transition to become women should be allowed to serve their sentences in female-only prisons if they 'choose' to"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8012193/Labour-trans-rights-row-Lisa-Nandy-says-rapists-transition-sent-womens-prisons.html
And she's not sure babies are born with a "sex"
"The heated debate started when Morgan had asked Ms Nandy if she agreed with her Labour colleague Dawn Butler, who he said had told the show recently that children are born without sex.
Ms Nandy replied that when babies are born, they are “designated” a biological sex, which is “determined by their physical attributes”.
“It’s not for me to tell people who they are,” she said"
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/media/lisa-nandy-in-heated-row-with-piers-morgan-over-transgender-rights-180090/
What a shame he didn't call it "reverse swing". The we could call the opposite "conventional swing"
Of course, these numbers are all predicated on doing engineering works at weekends. I didn't use SWR to go to the Arsenal v Tottenham match due to such works. Even before COVID I was all in favour on doing more works during the working week. We had a three week blockade at Waterloo a few years ago and the world didn't end. That has to be a more efficient way of doing engineering works than nipping in and out.
Whether or not the railways change, I'm not so sure. To do so, would be to admit defeat. There are plenty of people, not least in the cabinet, who want things to go back to normal.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/14/norway-bow-attacker-muslim-convert-known-police-radicalisation/
🔵Con 40 (=)
🔴Lab 35 (=)
🟠LDM 8 (-1)
🟢Grn 5 (+1)
🟡SNP 5 (=)
⚪️Other 7 (-1)
8-10 Oct, 2,103 UK adults
(*Changes from 1-3 Oct) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1448652047138504711/photo/1
Now, relationships do fray, and probably no fraying relationships look good in the cold light shone by a courtroom, but still, she looks slightly unhinged.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/13/mp-claudia-webbe-found-guilty-harassment/
"
Despite the warning, the MP made a further 16 calls to Ms Merritt who recorded one, which was later played to the court.
In the recording that was played, Ms Webbe can be heard saying: “Why are you still butting in and getting with Lester [Thomas, Ms Merritt's former partner and Claudia Webbe's current partner]? Why? Why? He’s not your friend. He’s with me and I don’t want you to be in touch with me. I don’t want you to be in touch with him.”
In the background, Mr Thomas could be heard shouting: “Don’t listen to her, send me a message whenever you like. Michelle, come off the phone and call the police.”
Ms Webbe then screams: “Lester, why don’t you go and live with her? Take everything and go and live with her.”
She can then be heard repeatedly shouting: “Get out of my relationship.”
"
A LOT of people do have these preferences. And they are happy to express it on dating websites in ways they would never do elsewhere
"No Asian men"
"Black preferred"
And vice versa
https://mashable.com/article/racism-online-dating
I think an increased majority is about a 20% chance so would like to bet on that if I could find anyone offering odds over 5/1.
Trades Union Congress
@The_TUC
BREAKING 🚨🚛: DHL lorry drivers have just accepted a 6.2% pay rise - after standing firm with their union and rejecting an initial 1% pay offer.
On these there is little real as opposed to bogus discussion. And BTW there is no party at all for real dry fiscal conservatives.
To them, anything that a 'Tory' says can safely be ignored. And anyone who says anything they disagree with is a 'Tory'. But that's ok, because there aren't many 'Tories' - a small hardcore of middle aged, middle class people who live in Tunbridge Wells or possibly Surrey and read the Daily Mail. They are an exotic and hateful, but thankfully, tiny subgroup.
The persistence of 'Tories' in winning elections presents an ongoing mystery to these people.
I imagine that any attempt to add some sanity to the system (i.e. based on more recent prices or ignoring corporations) would be completely rejected at the ballot box.
Though published 17 days after end of fieldwork
British Electoral Politics
@electpoliticsuk
·
1h
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 43% (+6)
LAB: 30% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-3)
GRN: 6% (+1)
REF: 1% (-1)
Via
@Kantar_UKI
, 23-27 September,
Changes with 23 August.
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1448655174814224385
It is in some ways the first major serious division in how people see the world since the end of the Cold War.
However it is simply a fact that some people prefer certain hair colours and skin tones; I am extremely reluctant to call them racist for something that is surely innate, the same way some people just prefer tall or short, or whatever
Love should be about more than that.
There is another aspect to this of course, that plenty of people would prefer to date someone from a culturally similar background. Relationships from across cultures can work, but fall a lot less easily into place. This isn't racism - this is just being pragmatic about how your relationship - and hopefully your future - is going to work out.
Time for a new electorate.
Surely she is then just narrowing down her preferences, and excluding men that she knows won't work for her, sexually?