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This week’s local council by-election bet: Cranleigh East – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,260
    Alistair said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Is there a betting market on Taiwan being invaded?
    TSMC put options ?
  • dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
    I'm still recovering from his performance of Total Eclipse Of The Heart.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
    Is GPS really down? It doesn’t seem to be.
    Someone posted it.
    I am literally only getting my news from PB, which is probably a recipe for paranoid schizophrenia.
    But you'll learn a lot about train stations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Hear the tremor in the Taiwan Foreign Ministers voice. I think it is more than his accent:

    https://twitter.com/NewGranada1979/status/1445059655135154188?s=19

    That's extremely worrying.
    I think the Social Media collapse is a diversion.
    Blimey.

    Once PB goes down I know we're really in the shit.
    It's one of the signals for the submarine captain isn't it? PB going down?
    Hah. Enjoyed Vigil which we had recorded and binge-watched.

    I appreciate it's fictional bunkum but it did leave me slight queasy at the thought of 100 or so submarines with nuclear ICBMs dotted around the world... It only takes one sub commander to go mad.
    Meanwhile ours is one of 3 carriers on exercise nearby.


    It better not go down, for god's sake - they are very expensive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,072
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
    I posted a link to people with a clue.

    It’s a combination of cock-up attached to the easiest place to make cock-ups serious.

    In 2 separate tweets people have posted 2 similar incidents in the past, Pakistan taking YouTube down worldwide rather than internally and apple via a Cisco router bug taking New Zealand off the internet.
    Re Apple disconnecting NZ... I bet NZ had to ask politely if they could come back on.
  • I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,444
    By the way, if you don’t know it then check out Al Green’s cover of I Wanna Hold Your Hand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180
    IshmaelZ said:
    Yes, I know it is not conviction at this point, but it's a hell of a story.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,633
    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180
    Given how much effort it takes is it even possible to launch an invasion somewhere without everyone knowing for weeks beforehand?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Taiwan, China cannot just invade. They would need to get tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of troops over a 100 miles of ocean.

    That doesn't happen without a lot of military build up. Like, you know, ships to carry them. And lots of ships to protect the ships carrying the troops.

    That being said, China is clearly upping the ante here.

    And Taiwan only has two choices. Firstly, defend their airspace, and give China the excuse to invade (or more likely blockade). Secondly, to allow China to infringe.

    Neither option is particularly palatable.

    Yes. China is not going to invade tonight, but they are testing the limits, and they will try and take Taiwan within a decade, hopefully (in Xi's eyes) in the same way they bullied Hong Kong into submission. Surrounding it with overwhelming military power, revealing that no one else will really fight to defend it, and then Taipei will fold, and sue for peace, and accept absorption into Greater China (probably with some face-saving autonomy like HK)

    Chances of success? = High

    Would Biden send thousands of Americans to die for Taiwan? I don't believe it. Would he go to war with China, lobbing nukes? No. Would the Taiwanese fight to the death against the overwhelming power of Beijing? No

    China will win this. It is Hitler marching into Austria or the Sudetenland. There is not the will to defend Taiwan, there will just be a desperate bid to diversify chip manufacturing before the Taiwanese Anschluss happens

    AUKUS is about defending the next countries in the firing line. Japan. Korea, Singapore, Australia


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180

    I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival

    Seconded. We all know a cumberground.
  • kle4 said:

    Given how much effort it takes is it even possible to launch an invasion somewhere without everyone knowing for weeks beforehand?

    Yup, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was missed by everyone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,797

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
    I'm still recovering from his performance of Total Eclipse Of The Heart.
    He’ll finally get to be a Rocket Man for real.

    https://youtu.be/lul-Y8vSr0I
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,072

    kle4 said:

    Given how much effort it takes is it even possible to launch an invasion somewhere without everyone knowing for weeks beforehand?

    Yup, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was missed by everyone.
    Slightly less sea to cross there though.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Taiwan, China cannot just invade. They would need to get tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of troops over a 100 miles of ocean.

    That doesn't happen without a lot of military build up. Like, you know, ships to carry them. And lots of ships to protect the ships carrying the troops.

    That being said, China is clearly upping the ante here.

    And Taiwan only has two choices. Firstly, defend their airspace, and give China the excuse to invade (or more likely blockade). Secondly, to allow China to infringe.

    Neither option is particularly palatable.

    What’s the Chinese for Tonkin?
    It's Dong Jing. Or Eastern Capital.
    The same two characters as Tokyo.
    You didn't want to know that.
    But you're welcome anyways.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,431
    edited October 2021
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
    I posted a link to people with a clue.

    It’s a combination of cock-up attached to the easiest place to make cock-ups serious.

    In 2 separate tweets people have posted 2 similar incidents in the past, Pakistan taking YouTube down worldwide rather than internally and apple via a Cisco router bug taking New Zealand off the internet.
    I did try to explain BGP taking Facebook off the internet which took out its self-hosted primary DNS servers (and status pages, which is a surprisingly common cock-up). But then deleted it because if you know what BGP is, you don't need to be told, and if you do not know, then being told does not really help. I guess there will be an incident report tomorrow.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,581
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
    Shatner's Mr Tambourine Man is the absolute pinnacle of human art.
    The twin bulls of Lascaux, The Lady of Shalott by John William Waterhouse, and Mr Tambourine Man by William Shatner. That's all you need to have seen and heard it all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,072

    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.

    Still no news on Cranleigh East though.
  • Even seven weeks after D-Day the Germans thought the Normandy landings were a diversion for the real invasion at the Pas-de-Calais.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,798
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Taiwan, China cannot just invade. They would need to get tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of troops over a 100 miles of ocean.

    That doesn't happen without a lot of military build up. Like, you know, ships to carry them. And lots of ships to protect the ships carrying the troops.

    That being said, China is clearly upping the ante here.

    And Taiwan only has two choices. Firstly, defend their airspace, and give China the excuse to invade (or more likely blockade). Secondly, to allow China to infringe.

    Neither option is particularly palatable.

    I think this a show of force to establish control over the South China Sea and intimidate Taiwan and the allied Fleet. Trigger fingers though...

    At the weekend I was thinking of selling my shares exposed to China, because of Evergrande, but haven't yet. Let's see what the markets to tommorow.
  • Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    Those are such truisms that they're hardly worth uttering.
  • I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival

    I think the recent popularity of scumbag is entirely due to The Bill using it for pre-watershed cursing.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,581

    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.

    Just for once, Facebook isn't the primary vector for fake news.
  • dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
    The video that Tim Ireland made for it starring Dave was also bloody good I thought.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NStRuFFH34Y
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor
  • Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,523

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
    I posted a link to people with a clue.

    It’s a combination of cock-up attached to the easiest place to make cock-ups serious.

    In 2 separate tweets people have posted 2 similar incidents in the past, Pakistan taking YouTube down worldwide rather than internally and apple via a Cisco router bug taking New Zealand off the internet.
    I did try to explain BGP taking Facebook off the internet which took out its self-hosted primary DNS servers (and status pages, which is a surprisingly common cock-up). But then deleted it because if you know what BGP is, you don't need to be told, and if you do not know, then being told does not really help. I guess there will be an incident report tomorrow.
    The thing to remember is that BGP is a pain because it’s something so few people touch no -one has spent time making it idiot proof.

    I suspect that will be a big Facebook project from tomorrow morning.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,072

    "Five arrested after IDS hit over head with traffic cone"

    Enid Blyton gone edgy

    What! They've arrested Timmy the dog too? Jeez, these people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,033
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2. Even if we face a nuclear holocaust if we Tories are in government and any of us are still alive we will still not give Sturgeon indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,716
    The Chinese may be thinking they're unlikely to encounter an American leader as weak as Joe Biden again, and he many not be there for the full 4 years.
  • I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival

    I think the recent popularity of scumbag is entirely due to The Bill using it for pre-watershed cursing.
    Oh those happy, polite days when 'scumbag' was as good as 'complete and utter c***'
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
    Is GPS really down? It doesn’t seem to be.
    Someone posted it.
    I am literally only getting my news from PB, which is probably a recipe for paranoid schizophrenia.
    But you'll learn a lot about train stations.
    It's Railway Station.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,927

    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.

    Still no news on Cranleigh East though.
    LD's to invade on Thursday
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    Mass sections of the globe being uninhabitable will likely make it harder for states to project their power over large distances, so there would be a lot of fragmentation.
  • kle4 said:

    I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival

    Seconded. We all know a cumberground.
    Is a collective of cumbergrounds a cumberbatch?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,581
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    "return to unity"
    amazing scenes
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
    I posted a link to people with a clue.

    It’s a combination of cock-up attached to the easiest place to make cock-ups serious.

    In 2 separate tweets people have posted 2 similar incidents in the past, Pakistan taking YouTube down worldwide rather than internally and apple via a Cisco router bug taking New Zealand off the internet.
    I did try to explain BGP taking Facebook off the internet which took out its self-hosted primary DNS servers (and status pages, which is a surprisingly common cock-up). But then deleted it because if you know what BGP is, you don't need to be told, and if you do not know, then being told does not really help. I guess there will be an incident report tomorrow.
    The thing to remember is that BGP is a pain because it’s something so few people touch no -one has spent time making it idiot proof.

    I suspect that will be a big Facebook project from tomorrow morning.
    I expect there will be some quick fixes to their architecture like hosting (or duplicating) some of their critical functions externally.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The Chinese may be thinking they're unlikely to encounter an American leader as weak as Joe Biden again, and he many not be there for the full 4 years.

    Consider America had a much weaker leader a couple of years ago, that seems unlikely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180

    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.

    Still no news on Cranleigh East though.
    LD's to invade on Thursday
    I'm sure their mass leafletting is against the Geneva conventions. I got 7 separate drops from them in May, it felt like constant assault from raiding parties.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,180
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    "return to unity"
    amazing scenes
    There shall be much rejoicing.

    Or else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,033

    Andy_JS said:

    The Chinese may be thinking they're unlikely to encounter an American leader as weak as Joe Biden again, and he many not be there for the full 4 years.

    Consider America had a much weaker leader a couple of years ago, that seems unlikely.
    Trump would have gone to war with China over Taiwan, he made that clear and was mad enough to.

    Biden won't, only if China goes further and invades Korea, Japan or Singapore
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,797
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,512
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    Interestingly, the Taiwanese military buy almost equally from the French and the Americans.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    edited October 2021
    Tensions with PRC 11th story on Taipei Times website. Taiwan news page.

    https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan

    Third on China Post.

    https://chinapost.nownews.com/

    Not exactly prominent on Taiwan News either.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/index

    Scooter almost crushed by collapsing poorly built building is, however, an everyday story of Taiwanese folk.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,581

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
    How dare they. Don't they know we've taken back control of raining fire and brimstone on us?
  • pingping Posts: 1,673
    WhatsApp back
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,512

    kle4 said:

    Given how much effort it takes is it even possible to launch an invasion somewhere without everyone knowing for weeks beforehand?

    Yup, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was missed by everyone.
    That's not true. I remember reading an article in The Economist a few weeks before the invasion about Iraq's build up and whether it was just sabre rattling.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241

    kle4 said:

    Don't worry everyone - Facebook is back and Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Relax.

    Still no news on Cranleigh East though.
    LD's to invade on Thursday
    I'm sure their mass leafletting is against the Geneva conventions. I got 7 separate drops from them in May, it felt like constant assault from raiding parties.
    Meanwhile in Taiwan reports of leaflets being dropped from the sky containing the phrase PRC winning here, are denied.
    Only the LD's can defeat the hated DPP separatists...or summat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,033
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Chinese may be thinking they're unlikely to encounter an American leader as weak as Joe Biden again, and he many not be there for the full 4 years.

    Consider America had a much weaker leader a couple of years ago, that seems unlikely.
    Trump would have gone to war with China over Taiwan, he made that clear and was mad enough to.

    Biden won't, only if China goes further and invades Korea, Japan or Singapore
    Trump made it quite clear he wouldn't go to war over Taiwan and he was pissweak in the face of all foreign dictators.

    He was so weak and shortsighted he even pulled out of the TPP that had been designed to rival China and link East Asian Pacific nations to the USA. 🤦‍♂️
    Wrong, Trump was hawkish on Taiwan and was the first US President since the 1970s to speak on the phone to the Taiwanese president in a direct insult to China. He made clear he would protect the national security of Taiwan.

    The fact Trump was a protectionist pro tariff President and not pro free trade, including imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, does not change that, indeed China wants to join the TPP anyway
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,419
    I suspect Xi’s commanders had second thoughts.

    The Greensand Ridge is a nontrivial feature, militarily speaking.

    Rather, it would be strategic to approach from the West North West, assuming Godalming can be secured.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    So Taiwan. What EXACTLY has happened?
    They sent 50 odd jets into Taiwanese air space? They've been doing that since October 1st.
    The foundation of the PRC anniversary. And there is a show of strength in the South China Sea from us and others.
    Has anything actually happened different today. Or have folk just noticed?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    I won't be betting, but slightly tempted by the Tories at the 5/2 or so currently on Smarkets. It was really close in 2019 and working out the shifts in a single ward over 2 years in a by-election seems really really hard. What if the local Tories have better knock-up data, or (as OGH alludes) they have loads of phone canvassing due to conference week?

    Seems to me that we don't know enough to make either side strong favourites, but then again I might be wrong. For precisely the reason I gave: Perhaps there is good evidence somewhere for a strong favourite and I just don't know it.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Chinese may be thinking they're unlikely to encounter an American leader as weak as Joe Biden again, and he many not be there for the full 4 years.

    Consider America had a much weaker leader a couple of years ago, that seems unlikely.
    Trump would have gone to war with China over Taiwan, he made that clear and was mad enough to.

    Biden won't, only if China goes further and invades Korea, Japan or Singapore
    Trump made it quite clear he wouldn't go to war over Taiwan and he was pissweak in the face of all foreign dictators.

    He was so weak and shortsighted he even pulled out of the TPP that had been designed to rival China and link East Asian Pacific nations to the USA. 🤦‍♂️
    Wrong, Trump was hawkish on Taiwan and was the first US President since the 1970s to speak on the phone to the Taiwanese president in a direct insult to China. He made clear he would protect the national security of Taiwan.

    The fact Trump was a protectionist pro tariff President and not pro free trade, including imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, does not change that, indeed China wants to join the TPP anyway
    Wrong, Trump was weak on Taiwan and even after speaking on the phone to the Taiwanese President he managed to mangle that to weaken Taiwan not strengthen them.

    https://www.fpri.org/article/2017/03/donald-trump-is-no-friend-of-taiwan/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
    How dare they. Don't they know we've taken back control of raining fire and brimstone on us?
    Experienced British fire and brimstone operatives can expect 5% above minimum wage and a £200 golden hello.
  • dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
    How dare they. Don't they know we've taken back control of raining fire and brimstone on us?
    Experienced British fire and brimstone operatives can expect 5% above minimum wage and a £200 golden hello.
    Better than importing more fire and brimstone operatives just to undercut our own.

    Its time to invest in fire and brimstone training, we are more than capable of handling our own hellfire.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,633
    ping said:

    WhatsApp back

    Not for me
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,927

    ping said:

    WhatsApp back

    Not for me
    NE not levelled up on WhatsApp yet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    I'll repeat. In case anyone hasn't heard.
    Sabre rattling from PRC is weakness not strength.
    Evergrande could pull the property market down. There are rolling blackouts.
    If Taiwan is invaded, it will be a Galtieri type gamble.
    Anything other than swift success, and Xi Jinping will be off to the collective farm.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,268
    If China does invade Taiwan, just want to remind you all of prediction no 11 for 2021 from 29 December last year -

    "China will use its armed forces somewhere in Asia. The West’s response will be confused."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
    How dare they. Don't they know we've taken back control of raining fire and brimstone on us?
    Experienced British fire and brimstone operatives can expect 5% above minimum wage and a £200 golden hello.
    Better than importing more fire and brimstone operatives just to undercut our own.

    Its time to invest in fire and brimstone training, we are more than capable of handling our own hellfire.
    And if they don't, they'll go bust, and we can have a swarm of locusts or plague of frogs.
    There are plenty of death of first-born SME's out there which could fill the market.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,419
    Bozza on a “get back to the office” anti-WFH tip for his speech on Wednesday, according to tomorrow’s Mail.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,178
    edited October 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not uncoincidentally


    Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
    @jmsdf_pao_eng
    · 16h
    2-3 OCT, the #JMSDF conducted a multilateral exercise with
    @USNavy Flag of United States
    @RoyalNavy Flag of United Kingdom
    @kon_marine Flag of Netherlands
    @RoyalCanNavy Flag of Canada
    and @NZNavy Flag of New Zealand
    to realize a #FreeandopenIndopacific.

    AnchorFlag of United StatesFlag of United KingdomFlag of NetherlandsFlag of CanadaFlag of New ZealandFlag of JapanAnchor

    Interesting that the Dutch are the EU nation to be participating.

    French still sulking?
    If the west is going to divide militarily between the Anglosphere and a French-run EU defence (I still have my doubts about the later, despite the Franco-Greek deal) then the Netherlands will be in an interesting dilemma. I imagine their instincts (like Sweden and Denmark) will tend more to the Anglos. But they will be under pressure to stay in the EU lane
    I’ve noticed a few Dutch people on Twitter who are still obsessed with Brexit and want the EU to rain fire and brimstone down upon us.
    How dare they. Don't they know we've taken back control of raining fire and brimstone on us?
    Experienced British fire and brimstone operatives can expect 5% above minimum wage and a £200 golden hello.
    Better than importing more fire and brimstone operatives just to undercut our own.

    Its time to invest in fire and brimstone training, we are more than capable of handling our own hellfire.
    And if they don't, they'll go bust, and we can have a swarm of locusts or plague of frogs.
    There are plenty of death of first-born SME's out there which could fill the market.
    We've been breeding particularly loquacious foul-mouthed crows, if the UK needs to import some.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddQniqjrVdo
  • This used to be my seat. Who’s the candidate? - all three Lib Dems are lovely. Back the LDs in this seat. They’ll work hard for it!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,117
    If China does invade Taiwan, I'm going to move from a "the pandemic was probably a natural event" position to one that says that "the pandemic was engineered by China (*)".

    The world is still suffering the effects of the pandemic, and that includes politics and the militaries. It's been a big disruptor, and might just have been step one of a strategy.

    Also: if China does invade Taiwan, I wonder what Jezza will end up saying? And if we got to war?

    (*) Note, not the virus was engineered.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,178

    If China does invade Taiwan, I'm going to move from a "the pandemic was probably a natural event" position to one that says that "the pandemic was engineered by China (*)".

    The world is still suffering the effects of the pandemic, and that includes politics and the militaries. It's been a big disruptor, and might just have been step one of a strategy.

    Also: if China does invade Taiwan, I wonder what Jezza will end up saying? And if we got to war?

    (*) Note, not the virus was engineered.

    Re Jezza, he'll probably come up with some doublespeak that China's invasion was just spreading the peace.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,512
    I sat next to a Taiwanese gent at dinner this evening. He was singularly unconcerned. I hope he's right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008
    Apparently the world was a better place for a few hours last night, as F******k and associated services all crashed at once.

    I do feel sorry for the senior network admin though, and anyone else who was in the chain of command that signed off on something that would inadvertently pull all BGP routes and DNS simultaneously, to the whole corporate infrastructure! Hope the network team had ISDN backup lines into the data centres, would have been a lot of driving otherwise.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008

    Bozza on a “get back to the office” anti-WFH tip for his speech on Wednesday, according to tomorrow’s Mail.

    The pre-pandemic world really isn’t coming back, as much as the politicians want to see the economy recover quickly.

    Not all economic activity is seen as good by the consumers, people don’t *like* spending £5k on their season ticket, or £10 for a coffee and a bacon sandwich.

    WFH, at least part of the time, works much better for a lot of people and a lot of companies, over having everyone joining with millions more to trudge to their desk in the city centre for 8:30 or 9am.

    Oh, and fewer people commuting means a lot less carbon emitted into the atmosphere. Isn’t that supposed to be the top priority at the moment?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,937
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2. Even if we face a nuclear holocaust if we Tories are in government and any of us are still alive we will still not give Sturgeon indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    *Somewhere in the North Atlantic*

    Captain: ‘OK boys you can stand down. Secure from firing stations. Clearly the claims about nuclear war were a false alarm.’

    *Somewhere in Beijing*

    Xi cackles and orders another drink as his strategy works.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    Is that the same Nikki Haley who was a big fan of the same Trump who signed the deal for the US to retreat with the Taliban, letting all of Afghanistan know the USA was on the way out and the Taliban were the real future?
    She’d broken with him by that point

    Was never really a fan - more of a political calculation he was going to win
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,276
    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I haven't much to say on topic so will just update everyone about what I learnt while trying to think of something funny to say about scum

    I found the archaic words scumber and cumberground, both of which could bear revival

    Nice. But nothing beats velleity

    https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/velleity
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,430
    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    Indeed, he said that's where a lot of HGV drivers currently ply their trade, including the Eastern European ones who have got settled status. Delivering parcels for Amazon, DPD, Parcel force etc... became a lot more profitable over the pandemic while driving a truck didn't really. Right now in the UK the two jobs have comparable salary and hours according to him and it will need big, big salary premiums to get them back or get new people into HGV driving.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2. Even if we face a nuclear holocaust if we Tories are in government and any of us are still alive we will still not give Sturgeon indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    *Somewhere in the North Atlantic*

    Captain: ‘OK boys you can stand down. Secure from firing stations. Clearly the claims about nuclear war were a false alarm.’

    *Somewhere in Beijing*

    Xi cackles and orders another drink as his strategy works.
    I heard Xi has pulled back from further confrontation with Taiwan because he's concerned it will result in another Scottish Independence referendum.
    China invading Taiwan would be one thing, but the world really doesn’t need another destabilising Scottish Independence referendum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,512
    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    In San Francisco / Silicon Valley, you can currently earn $65-70k (after costs) driving for Uber. Why would anyone in that part of California become a truck driver?

    People forget that demand for drivers (of all sorts) has exploded in the last couple of years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008
    MaxPB said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    Indeed, he said that's where a lot of HGV drivers currently ply their trade, including the Eastern European ones who have got settled status. Delivering parcels for Amazon, DPD, Parcel force etc... became a lot more profitable over the pandemic while driving a truck didn't really. Right now in the UK the two jobs have comparable salary and hours according to him and it will need big, big salary premiums to get them back or get new people into HGV driving.
    Which backs up what many of us have been saying. That HGV drivers have been treated poorly by employers, who saw people as fungible and could always pick up the next one off the boat.

    During the pandemic, drivers realised that they could earn the same money driving smaller vehicles locally, and be back in their own bed every night.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently the world was a better place for a few hours last night, as F******k and associated services all crashed at once.

    I do feel sorry for the senior network admin though, and anyone else who was in the chain of command that signed off on something that would inadvertently pull all BGP routes and DNS simultaneously, to the whole corporate infrastructure! Hope the network team had ISDN backup lines into the data centres, would have been a lot of driving otherwise.

    The funny bit was them being unable to access the data centres because their access credentials were offline
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,430
    Charles said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    "return to unity"
    amazing scenes
    Unity between ROC and PRC is simple

    PRC just needs to accept they are rebels and ROC is the true government
    Sounds like a tax inversion/scam to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apparently the world was a better place for a few hours last night, as F******k and associated services all crashed at once.

    I do feel sorry for the senior network admin though, and anyone else who was in the chain of command that signed off on something that would inadvertently pull all BGP routes and DNS simultaneously, to the whole corporate infrastructure! Hope the network team had ISDN backup lines into the data centres, would have been a lot of driving otherwise.

    The funny bit was them being unable to access the data centres because their access credentials were offline
    Oh indeed, they properly locked themselves out of their own network. There will be a lot of egg on face this morning, as to how it took so long to get everything back online. I’m going to guess that at least one charter of a private jet was involved, to get a network admin to a data centre.

    Looking forward to reading whatever they decide to issue as a debrief. Thankfully, for large, listed companies dependent on technology for revenue, these tend to be quite comprehensive these days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,937
    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    That’s not far off a teacher on the top of main scale.
  • Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    Is that the same Nikki Haley who was a big fan of the same Trump who signed the deal for the US to retreat with the Taliban, letting all of Afghanistan know the USA was on the way out and the Taliban were the real future?
    She’d broken with him by that point

    Was never really a fan - more of a political calculation he was going to win
    Ah, so she is a cynical hypocrite rather than a genuine nut job. That's okay then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,937

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    Is that the same Nikki Haley who was a big fan of the same Trump who signed the deal for the US to retreat with the Taliban, letting all of Afghanistan know the USA was on the way out and the Taliban were the real future?
    She’d broken with him by that point

    Was never really a fan - more of a political calculation he was going to win
    Ah, so she is a cynical hypocrite rather than a genuine nut job. That's okay then.
    AKA ‘a politician.’
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,798
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    That’s not far off a teacher on the top of main scale.
    I would be sceptical, if that is net £35 000.

    Just look at the current advert, where the salary is a bit below Median wage.

    https://uk.talent.com/salary?job=amazon+delivery

    Conversations at the bar on holiday are not always accurate about pay rates on the ground.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Can I be the first PB Nat to suggest that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the ensuing global war which will wipe out maybe a third of humanity, rendering much of the globe uninhabitable, can only be good for the cause of Scottish independence? And will actually increase SNP representation at Holyrood?

    No, they will still not get indyref2. Even if we face a nuclear holocaust if we Tories are in government and any of us are still alive we will still not give Sturgeon indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction
    *Somewhere in the North Atlantic*

    Captain: ‘OK boys you can stand down. Secure from firing stations. Clearly the claims about nuclear war were a false alarm.’

    *Somewhere in Beijing*

    Xi cackles and orders another drink as his strategy works.
    I heard Xi has pulled back from further confrontation with Taiwan because he's concerned it will result in another Scottish Independence referendum.
    I'd heard it will happen whilst Boris is giving his Conference speech. With all the "analysis", he will get a couple of days clear run before anyone here notices....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    Is that the same Nikki Haley who was a big fan of the same Trump who signed the deal for the US to retreat with the Taliban, letting all of Afghanistan know the USA was on the way out and the Taliban were the real future?
    She’d broken with him by that point

    Was never really a fan - more of a political calculation he was going to win
    Ah, so she is a cynical hypocrite rather than a genuine nut job. That's okay then.
    She’s a politician - IIRC she supported Bush and about 6 of the dwarves before backing Trump. But she was the first substantial player to jump to his side
  • An obvious issue with the governments High Pay Raising Wages strategy is the countries biggest employer, HMG, has a wage freeze for most of its employees. If public sector pay restraint continues, and it probably will, that is a big section of the electorate who will face raising prices and feel very much left out, or worse, of a core part of the government policy and comms.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,312

    Bozza on a “get back to the office” anti-WFH tip for his speech on Wednesday, according to tomorrow’s Mail.

    I'm back in, but it's nothing to do with Boris and I'd prefer clearer roads tbh
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,008
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Got chatting to a couple at the bar last night, didn't even realise WhatsApp was gone!

    Interesting overall chatter, they live just down the road from us too. The husband works in import/export which I thought was code for something else but he does have a legitimate company that imports and exports goods. His view on petrol - the failure rests with the government because they didn't have facilities to train adequate tanker drivers from 2017 to now, even without COVID the HGV driver testing capacity is 10k too low.

    He thinks salary of £45-50k is where the market will settle for HGV drivers and around £60k for tanker drivers or other special goods haulage. His view is that if it's possible to earn £35k delivering locally for Amazon then delivering nationally or internationally will need a big premium.

    The issue exists everywhere in the world because companies have been underinvesting in people because they're trying to cash in today on automated trucks that are at best a decade away. In the UK it's acute because companies are highly dependent on cheap labour.

    In the US truck drivers already get paid a lot and there's no real shortage of workers, companies just don't want to pay the going rate so are pushing for the self-driving truck to happen. Across Europe he thinks they're lacking in willing workers because the going rate is too low. A German won't do the work for €30-35k per year and that's led to a huge lack of available people to train.

    His biggest worry (and it makes sense given the nature of his business), however, isn't the in country distribution, it's getting the containers off the boats. The US is really struggling from two decades of underinvesting in automation, a lot of their secondary dockyards still rely on people power but it's seen as a dead end job so few to no people want to become stevedores as they expect to be automated out of a job in 10 years. In the here and now that means no people and lots of container ships piling up at those secondary dockyards. Europe (including the UK) doesn't have these issues because most are already highly automated. The Dutch and Brits have led the way with this and the rest of Europe followed.

    Wow, £35 k delivering for amazon. That's 5k more than a trained Met police officer.
    That’s not far off a teacher on the top of main scale.
    I would be sceptical, if that is net £35 000.

    Just look at the current advert, where the salary is a bit below Median wage.

    https://uk.talent.com/salary?job=amazon+delivery

    Conversations at the bar on holiday are not always accurate about pay rates on the ground.
    The Amazon (other delivery companies are available) driver also likely has pretty much unlimited overtime available to him, which unlike the teacher will be paid.
This discussion has been closed.