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This week’s local council by-election bet: Cranleigh East – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,611
edited October 2021 in General
imageThis week’s local council by-election bet: Cranleigh East – politicalbetting.com

Laat week the innovative betting exchange, Smarkets, had a market for a by-election for Hetton on Sunderland council which appeared part of a strategy to have regular betting markets that would be resolved in a matter of days rather than years.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 20,094
    Lib Dem will win this.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://smarkets.com/event/42406540/politics/uk/local-government/cranleigh-east-by-election

    Link to smarkets page
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,742
    Cranleigh is on the edge of my patch (same borough, different constituency). I'll be surprised if the LibDems don't win.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    FPT:
    rottenborough said:

    Benpointer said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Hear the tremor in the Taiwan Foreign Ministers voice. I think it is more than his accent:

    https://twitter.com/NewGranada1979/status/1445059655135154188?s=19

    That's extremely worrying.
    I think the Social Media collapse is a diversion.
    Blimey.

    Once PB goes down I know we're really in the shit.
    It's one of the signals for the submarine captain isn't it? PB going down?
    Hah. Enjoyed Vigil which we had recorded and binge-watched.

    I appreciate it's fictional bunkum but it did leave me slight queasy at the thought of 100 or so submarines with nuclear ICBMs dotted around the world... It only takes one sub commander to go mad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It's weird @Quincel , Sinema's favourabilty ratings are down with Independents in Arizona. And here I thought she was the most astute women in the Democratic party.

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1445119691932975109?s=19
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,416
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    "This is a LOCAL election for LOCAL people. There's nothing for YOU here!"
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,224
    Talking of artistic longevity, as we were on the other thread: I wonder how Boris's reputation will fare in the years after he eventually steps down. I suspect he'll be more reviled by the Tories than Tone is by Labour now. As Brexit becomes a dreary fact of life and Boris's old tricks fade from the memory, will there be much to endear his memory to anyone of a conservative predisposition?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,193
    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    There's no betting book on China invading Taiwan, so meh...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    WhatsApp is STILL down.

    Is this a day of infamy?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://news.sky.com/story/lucy-letby-nurse-accused-of-murdering-eight-babies-and-attempted-murder-of-another-10-at-chester-hospital-enters-not-guilty-plea-12426004

    Another slightly "holy fuck" story which seems to have passed us by.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Is there a betting market on WW3
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    edited October 2021
    Gardenwalker said:

    WhatsApp is STILL down.

    Is this a day of infamy?

    My completely uninformed guess is they’ve had a huge data breach and needed to shut it all down (a la Trump).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    rottenborough said:

    Benpointer said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Hear the tremor in the Taiwan Foreign Ministers voice. I think it is more than his accent:

    https://twitter.com/NewGranada1979/status/1445059655135154188?s=19

    That's extremely worrying.
    I think the Social Media collapse is a diversion.
    Blimey.

    Once PB goes down I know we're really in the shit.
    It's one of the signals for the submarine captain isn't it? PB going down?
    Hah. Enjoyed Vigil which we had recorded and binge-watched.

    I appreciate it's fictional bunkum but it did leave me slight queasy at the thought of 100 or so submarines with nuclear ICBMs dotted around the world... It only takes one sub commander to go mad.
    Meanwhile ours is one of 3 carriers on exercise nearby.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,991
    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,868
    For those that care, a technical explanation of why Facebook is down

    https://blog.cloudflare.com/october-2021-facebook-outage/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,926
    Alistair said:

    It's weird @Quincel , Sinema's favourabilty ratings are down with Independents in Arizona. And here I thought she was the most astute women in the Democratic party.

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1445119691932975109?s=19

    Some enormous goalpost shifting going on by @HYUFD this morning on Georgia and so forth.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,321
    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    I was about to make the same observation.

    Do you think a Taiwanese invasion might swing the outcome?
    Will it lead to more potholes in the streets of Cranleigh?

    If so, good campaigning opportunities for the Libs, I'd have thought.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Is there a betting market on Taiwan being invaded?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Nothing on BBC News about Taiwan or Cranleigh East

    Shocking
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    I just cannot see how invading Taiwan plays out well for China - threatenting, for sure; invading, no.

    Ok, if successful (and I assume they would be) they right what in their eyes is a long-standing wrong and show the whole world they are a real superpower.

    But the negatives:
    - The mess and human, financial, and political cost of the invasion.
    - The catastrophic disruption to the world economy.
    - The loss of much (most) of their foreign earnings.
    - The clear start of a new Cold War.
    - The risk of things escalating completely out of control towards WW3.

    I cannot see how they will believe it's worth it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
    Is GPS really down? It doesn’t seem to be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    If you want, I can lobby for Betfair to put up a market on Taiwan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fun fact about Yellow Submarine:

    The album contains the track It's Only a Northern Song, written by George Harrison. For reasons only known to the band, it was released as (c) Northern Songs Ltd. Which caused issues later, when it was discovered that neither the Beatles, EMI or Apple Records actually owned Northern Song Ltd.

    How did they resolve?
    I think the owner of the company who had be inadvertently granted the copyright assigned it back, and was very good humoured about it.
    Are you sure it was Northern Songs Ltd? Wiki seems to think that got very nasty with Lew Grade, Robert Holmes a Court et al getting involved
    Ahhh... the problem of recycling an anecdote from a book I read two decades ago. Thanks for that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
    I think if GPS were down that would be headline news on its own.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    FPT
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I thought No Time to Die was absolutely dire.

    Possibly the dullest movie I've ever seen and a good example of why an actor should never be allowed to get above himself and start dictating plots.

    It's the only Bond movie I would never see twice.

    Happy to be disagreed with by others. Just a personal view.

    I agree with you. I struggled early on from the age disparity between Craig and his love interest. I couldn't get past believing her to be his daughter. This wasn't helped by the construction of the film. In fact there's 20 years between them but he isn't aging well and the difference looks closer to 30 years, Apart from that the number of technical mistakes such as the CGI looking like it was done on the cheap and the product placement being intrusive it was a film with few saving graces. Having said that I went with someone who rarely goes to the cinema and she loved it (and thought DC 'stunning'
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    Anabobazina said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    2m
    All of US social media going down at once is what day one of a Taiwan invasion by China would look like. GPS too


    It would be Peak PB if the same evening China invaded Taiwan, thus kicking off World War 3 and the possible end of human civilisation, was the same evening we devoted ourselves to the possible LD swing in the Waverly Council Borough By-Election in Cranleigh East

    It could well be a massive Chinese hack and a huge cage rattling of Taiwan by the PRC to make a point about its power and capability, but no invasion - yet.

    That would be Classic Xi.
    Did someone say GPS was down too?
    If so, yes, I’d agree.

    The Chinese would be mad to invade Taiwan.
    And I don’t think Xi is mad.
    Is GPS really down? It doesn’t seem to be.
    Someone posted it.
    I am literally only getting my news from PB, which is probably a recipe for paranoid schizophrenia.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,926
    China could invade Taiwan, Biden wouldn't start WW3 over it. Trump might have done.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I see lots of people postulating that Taiwan may be about to be invaded, has something happened to prompt this discussion? I've not seen anything in the news, have I missed something?

    PS Just finished Squid Game. Great series, if you haven't seen it - watch it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Benpointer said:

    I just cannot see how invading Taiwan plays out well for China - threatenting, for sure; invading, no.

    Ok, if successful (and I assume they would be) they right what in their eyes is a long-standing wrong and show the whole world they are a real superpower.

    But the negatives:
    - The mess and human, financial, and political cost of the invasion.
    - The catastrophic disruption to the world economy.
    - The loss of much (most) of their foreign earnings.
    - The clear start of a new Cold War.
    - The risk of things escalating completely out of control towards WW3.

    I cannot see how they will believe it's worth it.

    China didn't give a fuck about seeding a global plague around the world, to make sure millions of people died, not just Chinese

    And that's setting aside the questions of whether it was a bioweapon, or just a GOF leak, or whatever

    They knew what Covid was, and they spread it everywhere via their international airports, demanding that routes stay open until the last minute, because "racism, innit"

    So, yeah, I can see them invading Taiwan today. FWIW I don't think they will, I reckon they are going to try and sabre rattle Taiwan into submission, so they can occupy without a bullet being fired, like Hong Kong
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I see lots of people postulating that Taiwan may be about to be invaded, has something happened to prompt this discussion? I've not seen anything in the news, have I missed something?

    PS Just finished Squid Game. Great series, if you haven't seen it - watch it.

    Unprecedented Chinese air incursions over Taiwan, belligerent noises from Beijing, and a Taiwanese defence minister who looks terrified on TV

    Yes, there are reasons to be worried, but no reason to panic - yet
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,926
    I'll offer 5-1 on the People's Republic of China declaring war on the Republic of China in 2021 if anyone wants fifty quid on it. Normally I'd go higher but I bought a car recently so don't want to lose too much if Xi goes for it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,224
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I see lots of people postulating that Taiwan may be about to be invaded, has something happened to prompt this discussion? I've not seen anything in the news, have I missed something?

    PS Just finished Squid Game. Great series, if you haven't seen it - watch it.

    The Taiwan chap did a broadcast - looked to me more like he was angling for AUUKUS membership.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,193
    WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is in private communication over Chinese actions with regard to Taiwan, the White House said on Monday, after Taiwan's defense ministry reported that China's air force had sent aircraft into its air defense zone.

    "We are also in touch privately, conveying clear messages through diplomatic channels, and that's probably the appropriate place for those,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.



    (From a few hours ago, so not breaking news)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    darkage said:

    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?

    Not quite, an outer perimeter outside of their airspace.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    rottenborough said:

    Benpointer said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Hear the tremor in the Taiwan Foreign Ministers voice. I think it is more than his accent:

    https://twitter.com/NewGranada1979/status/1445059655135154188?s=19

    That's extremely worrying.
    I think the Social Media collapse is a diversion.
    Blimey.

    Once PB goes down I know we're really in the shit.
    It's one of the signals for the submarine captain isn't it? PB going down?
    Hah. Enjoyed Vigil which we had recorded and binge-watched.

    I appreciate it's fictional bunkum but it did leave me slight queasy at the thought of 100 or so submarines with nuclear ICBMs dotted around the world... It only takes one sub commander to go mad.
    Meanwhile ours is one of 3 carriers on exercise nearby.


    Nearby Cranleigh East?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,305
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I see lots of people postulating that Taiwan may be about to be invaded, has something happened to prompt this discussion? I've not seen anything in the news, have I missed something?

    PS Just finished Squid Game. Great series, if you haven't seen it - watch it.

    The Taiwan chap did a broadcast - looked to me more like he was angling for AUUKUS membership.
    You really do not understand AUKUS

    I am not sure if it is deliberate but maybe you should take this more seriously
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    rottenborough said:

    Benpointer said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Hear the tremor in the Taiwan Foreign Ministers voice. I think it is more than his accent:

    https://twitter.com/NewGranada1979/status/1445059655135154188?s=19

    That's extremely worrying.
    I think the Social Media collapse is a diversion.
    Blimey.

    Once PB goes down I know we're really in the shit.
    It's one of the signals for the submarine captain isn't it? PB going down?
    Hah. Enjoyed Vigil which we had recorded and binge-watched.

    I appreciate it's fictional bunkum but it did leave me slight queasy at the thought of 100 or so submarines with nuclear ICBMs dotted around the world... It only takes one sub commander to go mad.
    Meanwhile ours is one of 3 carriers on exercise nearby.


    Nearby Cranleigh East?
    How else do you think the bombers are going to start their leafleting campaigns?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    edited October 2021
    darkage said:

    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?

    I don't think it an invasion force, but rather a show of strength by tha PLA in response to the combined Naval manoeuvres of the carriers SW of Okinawa.

    But all it takes is a trigger figure, on either side.

    That is a very target rich environment for an airforce and navy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I see lots of people postulating that Taiwan may be about to be invaded, has something happened to prompt this discussion? I've not seen anything in the news, have I missed something?

    PS Just finished Squid Game. Great series, if you haven't seen it - watch it.

    ... while you can. 😳
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,416
    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    Been like that for a few hours.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    This is Harry Truman's fault, he should have left MacArthur nuke China.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    edited October 2021
    RobD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    WhatsApp is STILL down.

    Is this a day of infamy?

    My completely uninformed guess is they’ve had a huge data breach and needed to shut it all down (a la Trump).
    Maybe but even without that, they will have problems. Basically, Facebook has locked out its own engineers and administrators, as well as the rest of the world, and until they can gain access, they cannot fix anything. I'd imagine there are lots of people driving to datacentres. Beyond that, we are guessing and probably won't know until we see the incident report in a day or two. But I'm not really following it, just thinking from first principles.

    ETA it looks like some progress has been made and at least DNS is now working.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll offer 5-1 on the People's Republic of China declaring war on the Republic of China in 2021 if anyone wants fifty quid on it. Normally I'd go higher but I bought a car recently so don't want to lose too much if Xi goes for it.

    Losing that money would be the least of your troubles.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,758
    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,431
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Impossible. Things like that only happen when OGH is on holiday.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?

    I don't think it an invasion force, but rather a show of strength by tha PLA in response to the combined Naval manoeuvres of the carriers SW of Okinawa.

    But all it takes is a trigger figure, on either side.

    That is a very target rich environment for an airforce and navy.
    Probably the first of many such occasions.

    I would certainly get out of China now, if I was living there.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    CCHQ will be pleased the Facebook outage and IDS cone-gate have stopped the 2-hourly revelations of yet more dodgy Tory donors with snow on their cheque books.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    A couple of years ago my firm conducted some research into black swans that could bugger up the world (economy) and China invading Taiwan was considered more of a risk than a global pandemic.

    Buckle up.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is Harry Truman's fault, he should have left MacArthur nuke China.

    I'd imagine President Biden has reminded China of the trillions of dollars it *thinks* is safely invested in US Government bonds.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,283
    Gardenwalker said:

    News just in, the Cranleigh East by-election has been won by the Cranley Bommunist Party’s candidate “Harry” Xi McJinping.

    37,000 votes on a turnout of 435%

    Lib Dems a distant second.

    In a couple of years there’ll be ‘Only the Lib Dems can beat the Cranley Bommunists here’ leaflets being handed out
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CCHQ will be pleased the Facebook outage and IDS cone-gate have stopped the 2-hourly revelations of yet more dodgy Tory donors with snow on their cheque books.

    Nick Clegg pulling a few strings to help out his coalition partner hang on in Cranleigh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,758
    Gardenwalker said:

    WhatsApp is STILL down.

    Is this a day of infamy?

    Maybe this is an opportunity for people to widen the number of apps/programs they use, instead of being reliant on just a few.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?

    I don't think it an invasion force, but rather a show of strength by tha PLA in response to the combined Naval manoeuvres of the carriers SW of Okinawa.

    But all it takes is a trigger figure, on either side.

    That is a very target rich environment for an airforce and navy.
    Probably the first of many such occasions.

    I would certainly get out of China now, if I was living there.
    One reason why rich foreigners are buying boltholes in London and distorting the property market for the rest of us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    What has happened exactly? 50 planes breaching taiwanese airspace?

    I don't think it an invasion force, but rather a show of strength by tha PLA in response to the combined Naval manoeuvres of the carriers SW of Okinawa.

    But all it takes is a trigger figure, on either side.

    That is a very target rich environment for an airforce and navy.
    Probably the first of many such occasions.

    I would certainly get out of China now, if I was living there.
    I see our carrier strike force is in the Bashi strait dividing Taiwan and the Phillipines, with British Dutch and American escorts.

    https://twitter.com/w3th3p30pl3rp1/status/1445132627565031433?s=19
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Market Rebellion
    @MarketRebels
    ·
    36s
    Taiwan reporting missile strike on Taipei, defensive actions imminent. Cranleigh by-election "suspended"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    AUKUS will be a bigger joke than the League of Nations if they sit back and allow China to invade Taiwan.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,758
    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,308
    Alistair said:

    It's weird @Quincel , Sinema's favourabilty ratings are down with Independents in Arizona. And here I thought she was the most astute women in the Democratic party.

    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1445119691932975109?s=19

    Her approval rating is up with Republicans I see, Democrats would vote for her anyway
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    TridentSubCommander said:

    Test

    No!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,358
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Must keep things in perspective after all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited October 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    She’ll be pretty upset when she hears about the LDs in Cranleigh.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    I was about to make exactly that point. Bad decisions have consequences, and that one was especially bad.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    I'm about to ring OGH to see if he is still in the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    bigjohnowls said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,136
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    Leon said:

    Market Rebellion
    @MarketRebels
    ·
    36s
    Taiwan reporting missile strike on Taipei, defensive actions imminent. Cranleigh by-election "suspended"

    Please don't - not even nearly funny.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,511
    TridentSubCommander said:

    Test

    I think you ought to give a bit more warning before your tests!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,308
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AUKUS will be a bigger joke than the League of Nations if they sit back and allow China to invade Taiwan.

    Trump would of course have declared WW3 with China had Xi invaded Taiwan.

    Biden won't but if China went beyond Taiwan and invaded Japan or South Korea even Biden and AUKUS would have to declare war on China as it would be no different to Hitler and Nazi Germany invading Poland in 1939.

    Taiwan is more the Sudetenland
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    "Nikki Haley
    @NikkiHaley

    7m
    Joe Biden's disastrous withdrawal signaled to our enemies that we wouldn't stand with our allies. And now, only two months later, Communist China sent 50+ warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

    When America retreats, all of our enemies are emboldened."

    https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1445143607321694209

    Is that the same Nikki Haley who was a big fan of the same Trump who signed the deal for the US to retreat with the Taliban, letting all of Afghanistan know the USA was on the way out and the Taliban were the real future?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    William Shatner is the best punchline to a Star Trek joke. Can’t remember the actual joke. Something to do with Uhura being unhappy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,825
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Market Rebellion
    @MarketRebels
    ·
    36s
    Taiwan reporting missile strike on Taipei, defensive actions imminent. Cranleigh by-election "suspended"

    Please don't - not even nearly funny.
    I did put in that lest sentence so your heart attack only lasted half a second
  • eekeek Posts: 30,868
    edited October 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A couple of years ago my firm conducted some research into black swans that could bugger up the world (economy) and China invading Taiwan was considered more of a risk than a global pandemic.

    Buckle up.

    Given how much of the Chinese internal economy seems to be built on property speculation I would have thought now, as Evergreene goes belly up, would be a good time for China to find a distraction.

    I think it’s just china proofing a point though rather than anything more serious.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,742
    Leon said:

    Can I just say, if this is the end, it was nice knowing all you guys. We had some good times, didn't we?

    Absolutely, and I think we can fit in Cranleigh East before doomsday. What more has life to offer?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    I'm managed to work in a William Shatner music performance into a PB thread header back in 2018.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/29/this-interview-is-not-of-someone-who-will-ever-be-tory-leader-or-prime-minister-let-alone-the-next-one/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,358
    Pulpstar said:

    I'll offer 5-1 on the People's Republic of China declaring war on the Republic of China in 2021 if anyone wants fifty quid on it. Normally I'd go higher but I bought a car recently so don't want to lose too much if Xi goes for it.

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll offer 5-1 on the People's Republic of China declaring war on the Republic of China in 2021 if anyone wants fifty quid on it. Normally I'd go higher but I bought a car recently so don't want to lose too much if Xi goes for it.

    Pulpstar said:

    I'll offer 5-1 on the People's Republic of China declaring war on the Republic of China in 2021 if anyone wants fifty quid on it. Normally I'd go higher but I bought a car recently so don't want to lose too much if Xi goes for it.

    Void bet. They can't declare War on a part of their own country.
    You minx.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Market Rebellion
    @MarketRebels
    ·
    36s
    Taiwan reporting missile strike on Taipei, defensive actions imminent. Cranleigh by-election "suspended"

    Please don't - not even nearly funny.
    I did put in that lest sentence so your heart attack only lasted half a second
    Yeah, fortunately the old ticker rebooted on this occasion but it was a close-run thing tbh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Facebook is back up.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,868
    edited October 2021
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Facebook now displays an error message, rather than being unreachable. So some progress.

    It'll be interesting to see whether this is cockup or conspiracy.
    Cock-up to the power of N by automation. In the bad old days, network (or server) configuration changes would be done one system at a time by people logging in and typing commands. This is clearly error-prone, not to mention slow, so it has all been automated which means Facebook (or previously Google and probably everyone else of any scale) can reconfigure their whole estate at the touch of a button.

    Which is fine till something goes wrong and a dangerous misconfiguration is spread at the speed of oops. Like today.
    I posted a link to people with a clue.

    It’s a combination of cock-up attached to the easiest place to make cock-ups serious.

    In 2 separate tweets people have posted 2 similar incidents in the past, Pakistan taking YouTube down worldwide rather than internally and apple via a Cisco router bug taking New Zealand off the internet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,758
    How on earth did the human race make it to 10 years ago without Facebook, Whatsapp and Instagram? Mindboggling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    williamglenn said:

    Facebook is back up.

    WhatsApp is still down though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    On the subject of Taiwan, China cannot just invade. They would need to get tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of troops over a 100 miles of ocean.

    That doesn't happen without a lot of military build up. Like, you know, ships to carry them. And lots of ships to protect the ships carrying the troops.

    That being said, China is clearly upping the ante here.

    And Taiwan only has two choices. Firstly, defend their airspace, and give China the excuse to invade (or more likely blockade). Secondly, to allow China to infringe.

    Neither option is particularly palatable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    One will prove pivotal to global politics and the other a distraction. I don't need to indicate which is which.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,358
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Taiwan, China cannot just invade. They would need to get tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of troops over a 100 miles of ocean.

    That doesn't happen without a lot of military build up. Like, you know, ships to carry them. And lots of ships to protect the ships carrying the troops.

    That being said, China is clearly upping the ante here.

    And Taiwan only has two choices. Firstly, defend their airspace, and give China the excuse to invade (or more likely blockade). Secondly, to allow China to infringe.

    Neither option is particularly palatable.

    What’s the Chinese for Tonkin?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,130
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    About to boldly go where no 90 yr old has gone before

    The actor who played Captain Kirk in the Star Trek series is set to embark on a real-life journey into space.

    US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space.

    Fun fact. William Shatner has released a number of albums - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shatner's_musical_career

    He is unlikely to make into any PBer's list of greatest musical talents.
    His cover of "Common People" is truly one for the ages.
    I'm still recovering from his performance of Total Eclipse Of The Heart.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,915
    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Taiwan may be about to be invaded, which would be the biggest news story and calamity of the 21st century.

    And, we have a new thread on the Cranleigh East local by-election.

    Is there a betting market on Taiwan being invaded?
    TSMC put options ?
This discussion has been closed.

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