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The big challenge for BoJo is that Starmer isn’t Corbyn – politicalbetting.com
The big challenge for BoJo is that Starmer isn’t Corbyn – politicalbetting.com
I dug out the above polling over the weekend after getting into a discussion on Twitter with Owen Jones and others about my firm view that negative perceptions of Corbyn were the main driver of Johnson’s landslide at GE2019.
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Edit: Oh, yes!
I'll go to bed now.
So nurses are given a 3% pay rise for working through Covid with inadequate PPE and then 1% is taken back in national insurance, and the rest in higher petrol prices and electricity costs, leaving most of them poorer that before. You could say the same for lots of people, not to mention the Ponzi scheme of student loans which will burden most high achieving school leavers as soon as they graduate.
We need lower taxes, so that people retain a decent proportion of what they earn.
In my lifetime only two labour leaders have become PM by winning an election: Wilson and Blair.
Does it not occur to them that there may be a reason why that is the case?
"Pandora Papers: Secret wealth and dealings of world leaders exposed"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-58780465
I'm really beginning to think that we need a tremendous property crash in this country and who cares if it leads to negative equity? If you're not planning on moving and are keeping up with your repayments then negative equity is just a figure.
Easy example
Pay 100.00
3% increase =3.00
NI employee @ 12%(?) = 0.36p
Your 1% implies one third or 33% in NI.
0.36p is in reality 12%
Not difficult at all Captain Hindsight has resonated.
Although useless nonentity is more accurate
If Boris can't deal with the problems in the economy then why should he remain in number 10?
At this stage in the 2019 GE cycle, Corbyn’s Labour were between level pegging to 9 points in the lead, and the Tories went from a deal with the DUP to an 80 seat majority
Don't forget there's 1.25% increase in NIC too that's just been announced.
So 1.25% of £103 = £1.29 as well as your 36p. So total NIC increase = £1.65
Plus 20% Income Tax on the £3 = 60p.
So total tax increase £2.25
So of the £3 increase HMRC is getting £2.25 and the Nurse gets 75 pence.
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
Still think
@AndyBurnhamGM
is the only (male) politician who has struck the right tone on this: “Any answer to this issue that begins with the words ‘women should’ or ‘women must’ is in my view the wrong answer”.
It is exempt below that
Are the two factors in that Opinium poll mutually exclusive? For example, it is entirely possible many Labour voters were disillusioned with Labour's leadership because it didn't take a clear cut view of Brexit and / or Labour gave the impression of internal discord on the issue. Which would still make Brexit the main factor, directly or indirectly.
The Brexit position they came to was the least worst of a series of bad options .
Some seem to forget that Labour voters were overwhelmingly Remain and the notion that they could just totally ignore those voters and just chase the leave voters in the north is delusional .
Corbyn was the main problem and no amount of spin by some on the left will change that .
Yes the first less than 10k is NI-free but beyond that the calculations work. A less than 1% pay rise which is less than inflation because taxes going up counter the so-called pay rise.
Want a pay rise? Campaign for tax cuts.
https://twitter.com/lucha_az/status/1444729925408153601
Up to a point, Lord OGH. What changed between 2017 and 2019 that decimated Labour and demonised Corbyn? An inept campaign, with a manifesto that read like the random thoughts of Seamus Milne rather than a coherent programme, that was reminiscent of Ed Miliband's in 2015. Corbyn himself seemed old and grumpy, and had been ill. The special lens in his glasses prevented him making eye contact with the viewer. Anti-semitism from Scouse Trots readmitted by Miliband. Even on Brexit, the issue of the day, Labour was, thanks partly to Starmer, unclear at best.
And a below-the-radar campaign of denigration from the Conservatives.
What's changed under Starmer? No doubt CCHQ is refining attack lines, probably along the lines of Starmer being DPP when [insert crime here]. And Labour's programme is even less clear than before.
What's developed in the past 24 hours?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58781445
Southerners are urged not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Northerners you'll need your bit coat.
The "Southern Fairies" need to quit panicking.
There has been no coherent account presented on how productivity is meaningfully to be increased above trend.
Restricting immigration as a means of driving up wages plus hand waving is what we've been offered by the PB Tories so far.
Cressida Dick ‘deeply concerned’ after Met police officer charged with rape
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/03/metropolitan-police-officer-charged-rape-hertfordshire
This one is from the same squad as Couzens too, VIP protection. Maybe they need to look a little more closely at the vetting of these officers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/supply-chain-issues/
I’m very far from an expert in the area, but the Met seems to have a particular problem which other forces perhaps don’t.
Compare this statement about West Yorkshire Police vetting, which might meet with some approval from @Cyclefree -
https://www.westyorkshire.police.uk/jobs-volunteer/police-officers/police-officers/vetting-faqs
With the one from the Met:
https://www.met.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/media/downloads/force-content/met/careers/careers/detective-constable/cautions-convictions.v4.pdf
They are profiting massively from the disruption.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-police-to-hire-recruits-with-minor-convictions-9604807.html
Starmer and his fellow undemocratic idiots were intent on overturning the Referendum, however. A point which will still be very germane to very many voters if he is proposed as our PM in 2023 or 2024....
Dick was brought in to reform though - and was certainly not intended to be continuity Hogan-Howe (the two had, incidentally, fallen out).
Here’s Sadiq Khan:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/22/cressida-dick-appointed-first-female-met-police-commissioner
… Khan had early on identified Dick as his chosen candidate to be Met commissioner. He said: “She has already had a long and distinguished career, and her experience and ability has shone throughout this process.”
… Sources close to Khan said that of the four candidates for the job, it was Dick who outlined the best vision for reforming the Met while keeping the capital safe, during two rounds of interviews. The source added Dick “accepts that there needs to be changes”.
Perhaps abolish Stamp Duty more widely (which is part of the package if he does a Proportional Property Tax), and put a value levy on foreign owned property, or similar.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58783460
When Dominic Cummings described the man he worked with at Number 10 as “ludicrously” unfit to be prime minister, it was not just non-Tories who found themselves in sudden agreement with Mr Cummings. There are plenty of Tories who think Mr Johnson is just not up to it. “The trouble with Boris is that he’s not very interested in governing,” says one former Tory cabinet minister. “He’s only interested in two things. Being world king and shagging.” The charge that his regime is fundamentally incompetent, so often made and with so much justice during the pandemic, is back and with a sting.
The acutest anxiety among Tory MPs is that Britain is heading into what one former cabinet minister calls “a bleak midwinter”, during which empty shelves in the shops will be accompanied by sharply rising food prices. That will be compounded by hefty increases in home gas and electricity bills. Inflation has not been a highly salient issue in British politics since Rishi Sunak was a teenager and Mr Johnson was still married to his first wife.
The households that will hurt most are the just-about-managing whose family budgets are already tight, many of them exactly the kind of working-class voter who delivered a majority to the Conservatives at the last election. This cohort, a lot of them first-time Tory supporters in 2019, will also feel the effects of the end of furlough, the hike in national insurance which will eat into pay packets from next spring and the cancellation of the £20 uplift in universal credit which will bite on Wednesday, the very day Mr Johnson makes his conference speech. Boosterish blather about “levelling up” will ring particularly hollow if the living standards of millions of people are being crunched down.
>"Anti-semitism from Scouse Trots readmitted by Miliband. "
That is so minimised geographically that you must be dreaming.
Many of the developers made all their marketing materials in Arabic and Chinese, and actively targeted foreign investors rather than sell locally in the UK. Before the pandemic there were a lot of property exhibitions in the Middle East and China, and the developers could sell a whole building off-plan in a month, from two or three exhibitions.
Even worse, a lot of these apartments haven’t been let, but are being left empty. A combination of high stamp duty (10%?) on these transactions, and triple council tax for empty properties, would help sort out this market.
And yet the Guardian/BBC try to drive the narrative over the Tory conference.
Funny old world
Let’s say you are offered a great career opportunity the other side of the country. Can’t move because of negative equity? That’s bad luck for you.
However, order matters. This isn't quite the boiled egg (you can't unboil it once it's boiled) but Starmer isn't coming into a normal party with a clean slate. He's coming into a party formerly led by a far left idiot (who still has adherents within it). Undoing that in both practical and PR terms takes time and effort.
Still, Starmer being Leader of the Opposition, as opposed to Comrade Wreath-Layer, is a good thing for both Labour and the country.
Labour would have been left somewhat united, and the Tories utterly divided.
If they had been bolder from the start - perhaps advocating EEA - then the mix would likely have been different
A police sergeant has escaped disciplinary proceedings after being photographed while dressed as paedophile Jimmy Savile on his stag weekend alongside a group of fellow officers.
What do we think? Sackable offence, or none of the employer’s business?
However. In this case, how could he possibly bring the police into more disrepute than they are already in?
Poor old Scott n paste will still whining about it long after everyone has moved on...
Someone doing fancy dress for a stag weekend isn't disrepute.
Ah, my coat…
Let’s concentrate on the actual rapists, rather than those who dress up as one!
But can't live where you already are because of insane house prices meaning you're essentially in negative equity without moving? That's even worse and a bigger evil.
If you have a £300k mortgage on a £250k house, you’re utterly screwed if for any reason you need to sell up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58784615
Penny for Nick Clegg’s thoughts today!
No charge.
This time it really is my coat. Have a good morning.
After the Guardians abhorrent behaviour over Wikileaks, they should ne nowhere near confidential information.
Something like that.
What's the big smoking gun? That Insta promotes idealised body images or that celebs are treated differently to others?
Well close down Vogue magazine and the Chiltern Firehouse while you're at it.
And this is good compared to dahn sarf? Crazy.
Believe me house prices are too high. But a crash is not the answer.
Rising house prices create problems, but falling ones are pretty miserable. Then the the whole cycle kicked off again. The house I bought for £85 000 in 1996, I sold at £165 000 in 2001.
While the larger economy did well in the nineties, at the level of the individual household finances there was a lot of difficulty. This was part of the New Labour Landslide of 1997. That is why if it happens again Starmer is in number 10.
Same old, same old.
On the other hand we know he is frit of negative headlines. So they're bound to do the things they insisted they would not do 5 minutes earlier. We also know they (with the exception of Rishi and the Treasury) are grossly incompetent.
So the risk here is a winter of shit. With "no no no no no no yes" denials making it look like a shambles. And then a badly conceived "fix" that does nothing. They could be getting a kicking for all of these simultaneously.
Nah, never going to happen, mate! Just more Project Fear.
As I've said before my preferred solution would be some years of high inflation combined with keeping house prices flattish, but then people react horrified at the suggestion of inflation - despite the fact we've had inflation in costs for years which is what has caused this crisis.
So how do you end the crisis of extremely high house prices without a crash and without inflation?
...No misdeeds alleged. Simply the fact he was there when [insert crime here] outraged the populace. Invite the inference. Not refuted by Starmer who does not even know it has been sent. Worth a try....