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It looks as though Johnson will fail to get a US trade deal – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    Sounding a bit Xi-era China there, tlg.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited September 2021
    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    Nice quote from their annual report...
    ...The report focuses on recently announced ESG goals, covering critical environmental, societal, and workforce imperatives. These commitments include a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions across its global network to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and an intermediate goal of a 25% reduction in CO2e emissions intensity by 2030. The Company’s ESG goals also encompass other issues important to CF Industries and its stakeholders, including diversity and inclusion, safety, food security, nutrient management and community involvement....
    Ah, another company whose actions don’t seem to quite match their words…
    Well, there is now significant 'community involvement' given that the wider community in the UK is bunging them a few £million :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641394
    ...The Times also reported that ministers were concerned that the UK might have to close its six advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactors, which also use CO2.
    The government announced late on Tuesday night that it would meet the full operating costs to run CF Industries' Billingham plant in Teesside for three weeks. The costs are expected to be in the "low tens of millions" and will be below £50m.
    Mr Eustice said that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".
    At the end of the three-week period, it is hoped that the price of carbon dioxide will have risen sufficiently to make it economically viable for CF Industries to keep production running.
    Mr Eustice said the food industry would have to accept "a big, sharp rise" carbon dioxide prices from £200 to £1,000 a tonne....


    I think a little more attention needs to be paid by government to economic resilience, which given the stresses of Brexit etc, really can't just be left to the market.

    It's the problem with the Gove/Cummings "burn everything down so that good stuff can spontaneously appear in its wake" theory of government. It would be lovely not to have to plan, but before it gets to an equilibrium, a totally unfettered market can pass through some pretty hair-raising transient states.

    The survivors of evolution achieve remarkable things; Matt Ridley has written tonnes of stuff on this. What gets underplayed is that natural selection needs a lot of failures to die in order that the successes can succeed.
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock ?
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock, Brexit and being mates with Dom[1], yes.

    [1] https://www.hoover.org/research/how-innovation-works-matt-ridley-1
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    Nigelb said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    Nice quote from their annual report...
    ...The report focuses on recently announced ESG goals, covering critical environmental, societal, and workforce imperatives. These commitments include a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions across its global network to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and an intermediate goal of a 25% reduction in CO2e emissions intensity by 2030. The Company’s ESG goals also encompass other issues important to CF Industries and its stakeholders, including diversity and inclusion, safety, food security, nutrient management and community involvement....
    Good, if temporary, progress on reducing CO2 emitted...
  • glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited September 2021
    I see we've reached the 'but he likes animals and did a lot for charidee' stage of the Yorkalypse.



    https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1440591130999996416?s=20
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    gealbhan said:

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    Chaff swallowed by yesterday’s papers, successful.
    Today’s line is that we don’t want an American trade agreement anyway.

    Keep up!
    No. Today's line is that we Brexited because we wanted the right to not be able to sign an American free trade agreement.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited September 2021

    Northern Ireland saved from CO2 shortage via access to single market CO2.

    https://twitter.com/dhoneyford/status/1440346160594440192?s=21

    Holy Carbon Dioxide, Batter Man!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
  • glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    You really are unpleasant to the elderly

    You will be old someday
  • I see we've reached the 'but he likes animals and did a lot for charidee' stage of the Yorkalypse.



    https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1440591130999996416?s=20

    He really screwed the pooch.
  • Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    And has Trudeau applied to join AUUKUS yet? We were categorically assured that the only reason Canada wasn't involved was because an election was underway.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,597

    Wonderful run this morning around Grantchester. Yesterday I discovered a series of concessionary footpaths across fields that I never knew about, so I jogged along these to the M11, then north towards Cambridge, and then back along the River Cam, which was stunningly beautiful in the sunshine. Farmers toiling in the fields; the sun glinting on the water; cows farting as I passed; a heron perched a few metres away from me; a pleasant chats with tourists from Galway.

    Sometimes I utterly love the Cambridge area.

    Over nine miles run, and probably only a quarter of a mile on roads.

    I did resist nipping into the Orchard for a cream tea, if only because I was sweaty and shirtless. ;)

    The Strava Global Heatmap is a great way to find footpaths and routes that aren't obvious from an Ordnance Survey map. Although not all turn out to be entirely legal. Very useful if you are going somewhere new.

    It also shows how dense the population is in England and the Low Countries compared to other parts of Europe...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    I see we've reached the 'but he likes animals and did a lot for charidee' stage of the Yorkalypse.



    https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1440591130999996416?s=20

    He really screwed the pooch.
    He’d probably be in less trouble, if it had been pooches he was screwing!
  • glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    You really are unpleasant to the elderly
    You will be old someday
    Sadly, they deserve it.

    Polling consistently shows them to hold selfish and mean-spirited views.

    And they smell of wee, besides.
  • Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    As Boris announces the lifting of trade on Welsh lamb to the US

    Win for Welsh farmers
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
    From 2017, and the closure of the Rough storage facility...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica
    ...A Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) spokesperson said: “The UK has highly diverse and flexible sources of gas supply through domestic production and extensive import capability. We expect healthy margins this winter as we continue to upgrade the UK’s energy infrastructure.”...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Yes I switch to red wine from white wine today and from salad to cabbage, sprouts and cauliflower, also will be more likely to wear a sweater and a coat when going out, though good to see we still are getting a bit of an Indian summer
    A delta summer, please.
    Nope - wrong Indian. Indian summer is a North American term and refers to warm weather in Oct or November, usually after at least one frost, and is when the indigenous peoples would return to hunting after the harvest.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Yes I switch to red wine from white wine today and from salad to cabbage, sprouts and cauliflower, also will be more likely to wear a sweater and a coat when going out, though good to see we still are getting a bit of an Indian summer
    A delta summer, please.
    Nope - wrong Indian. Indian summer is a North American term and refers to warm weather in Oct or November, usually after at least one frost, and is when the indigenous peoples would return to hunting after the harvest.
    First nation summer.
  • glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    You really are unpleasant to the elderly
    You will be old someday
    Sadly, they deserve it.

    Polling consistently shows them to hold selfish and mean-spirited views.

    And they smell of wee, besides.
    Nobody deserves your hate
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641394
    ...The Times also reported that ministers were concerned that the UK might have to close its six advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactors, which also use CO2.
    The government announced late on Tuesday night that it would meet the full operating costs to run CF Industries' Billingham plant in Teesside for three weeks. The costs are expected to be in the "low tens of millions" and will be below £50m.
    Mr Eustice said that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".
    At the end of the three-week period, it is hoped that the price of carbon dioxide will have risen sufficiently to make it economically viable for CF Industries to keep production running.
    Mr Eustice said the food industry would have to accept "a big, sharp rise" carbon dioxide prices from £200 to £1,000 a tonne....


    I think a little more attention needs to be paid by government to economic resilience, which given the stresses of Brexit etc, really can't just be left to the market.

    It's the problem with the Gove/Cummings "burn everything down so that good stuff can spontaneously appear in its wake" theory of government. It would be lovely not to have to plan, but before it gets to an equilibrium, a totally unfettered market can pass through some pretty hair-raising transient states.

    The survivors of evolution achieve remarkable things; Matt Ridley has written tonnes of stuff on this. What gets underplayed is that natural selection needs a lot of failures to die in order that the successes can succeed.
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock ?
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock, Brexit and being mates with Dom[1], yes.

    [1] https://www.hoover.org/research/how-innovation-works-matt-ridley-1
    If Dom was in Russia in the 90s, he can't say he's not aware of how hair-raising an unfettered market can be. I wonder how he and Ridley think the subsequent evolution has turned out?
  • Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    And has Trudeau applied to join AUUKUS yet? We were categorically assured that the only reason Canada wasn't involved was because an election was underway.
    You really do not understand AUKUS do you, indeed you cannot even get the abbreviation correct
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Kwasi Kwarteng in front of the business select committee commented that the treasury is aware of this crisis and there is a budget in October when all will be revealed

    Looks like Rishi may be planning some mitigation to home owners bills

    Oh no, I have a horrible feeling he's going to increase my already absurd Winter Fuel Payment. Whilst I can happily spend it on even better champagne than I would otherwise purchase, I can't help feeling that this would not be a good use of public money.
    The winter fuel payment that buys my parents rugby season tickets?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    Your politics of envy are showing.

    And how are your mum and dad these days?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    And has Trudeau applied to join AUUKUS yet? We were categorically assured that the only reason Canada wasn't involved was because an election was underway.
    You really do not understand AUKUS do you, indeed you cannot even get the abbreviation correct
    The dissonance created by the humiliation of France has completely unhinged him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
    From 2017, and the closure of the Rough storage facility...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica
    ...A Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) spokesperson said: “The UK has highly diverse and flexible sources of gas supply through domestic production and extensive import capability. We expect healthy margins this winter as we continue to upgrade the UK’s energy infrastructure.”...
    Interesting piece. Looks like the existing facility reached the end of its design life, and Centrica decided there was no need to replace it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
    Germany about 80 days:
    https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/gas-instruments-used-to-secure-gas-supply.html

    We're less than a tenth of that.

    There's a table on page 52 of this report, if you're really interested.
    https://www.gie.eu/wp-content/uploads/filr/3517/Picturing the value of gas storage to the European hydrogen system_FINAL_140621.pdf
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Kwasi Kwarteng in front of the business select committee commented that the treasury is aware of this crisis and there is a budget in October when all will be revealed

    Looks like Rishi may be planning some mitigation to home owners bills

    Oh no, I have a horrible feeling he's going to increase my already absurd Winter Fuel Payment. Whilst I can happily spend it on even better champagne than I would otherwise purchase, I can't help feeling that this would not be a good use of public money.
    The winter fuel payment that buys my parents rugby season tickets?
    My parents will be using theirs to book flights to come see me, somewhere more sunny. Saves on their heating bills over the winter!
  • Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641394
    ...The Times also reported that ministers were concerned that the UK might have to close its six advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactors, which also use CO2.
    The government announced late on Tuesday night that it would meet the full operating costs to run CF Industries' Billingham plant in Teesside for three weeks. The costs are expected to be in the "low tens of millions" and will be below £50m.
    Mr Eustice said that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".
    At the end of the three-week period, it is hoped that the price of carbon dioxide will have risen sufficiently to make it economically viable for CF Industries to keep production running.
    Mr Eustice said the food industry would have to accept "a big, sharp rise" carbon dioxide prices from £200 to £1,000 a tonne....


    I think a little more attention needs to be paid by government to economic resilience, which given the stresses of Brexit etc, really can't just be left to the market.

    It's the problem with the Gove/Cummings "burn everything down so that good stuff can spontaneously appear in its wake" theory of government. It would be lovely not to have to plan, but before it gets to an equilibrium, a totally unfettered market can pass through some pretty hair-raising transient states.

    The survivors of evolution achieve remarkable things; Matt Ridley has written tonnes of stuff on this. What gets underplayed is that natural selection needs a lot of failures to die in order that the successes can succeed.
    It's also worth pointing out the limits of natural selection: no animal ever evolved wheels or a machine gun.
    Dung beetles pretty much use the wheel.
    Wheels are easy, the key invention is the axle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
    From 2017, and the closure of the Rough storage facility...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica
    ...A Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) spokesperson said: “The UK has highly diverse and flexible sources of gas supply through domestic production and extensive import capability. We expect healthy margins this winter as we continue to upgrade the UK’s energy infrastructure.”...
    Interesting piece. Looks like the existing facility reached the end of its design life, and Centrica decided there was no need to replace it.
    And BEIS concurred...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Talking of which, much as I approve of the two-stage County Championship, we may be pushing the envelope of sensible contests between bat and ball by having matches this deep into September.

    11:02 Day 2
    ESSEX BEAT NORTHANTS BY AN INNINGS & 44 RUNS
    Essex 170 v Northants 81 and 45
    Yes, there should really be no cricket matches in the northern hemisphere from today until Spring, it should be football and rugby only.

    Having said that the Football season should start now not in August when the Premier League restarts
    In 1971 the final three day CC matches started on 11th September.

    The final Test Match (of 6 that summer) started on 19th August.

    The first CC matches started on 1 May (all April FC fixtures were MCC or University matches).

    There is a lot to be said for it.

    Covered pitches and groundskeeping technology means the pitches are fine, its the atmospherics thats the issue. I woke to mist again today, and that moisture is what causes results like the above.

    Re the season - they are trying to cram too many tournaments in in blocks. Need to return to the idea of parallel competitions. T20 on friday and saturday, 4 days start on monday. Find space for one day cup somewhere and bugger the hundred. Put the money into T20 live on BBC. Simples.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Raab redeeming himself somewhat today

    I might be on my own, but I thought he did well when Johnson was in hospital.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited September 2021
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Looks to me like a nice bit of blackmail by CF Industries. They shut down, knowing full well that stopping production would grind things to a halt and government would have to bail them out quickly. Job done, £50 million or so gained. People would be screaming if a trades union used such tactics....

    An enterprising competitor will likely be ‘encouraged’ to submit a planning application next week!

    The pandemic has definitely shown up issues with global supply chains, utility infrastructure and interdependence.

    What looks like a combination of Putin being Putin, an unseasonal lack of wind and a fire at an interconnect station, can cause a massive gas price spike, and indirectly quickly lead to something like a shortage of CO2 - most of which is produced as a minor by-product of other processes.
    A brief look at the published reserves numbers gives a clue as to what is going on and why there is this issue for the UK.
    Did I see that the gas reserves are 80% down on where they were a couple of decades ago?

    Any ideas why, related to the fallout (sic) from the Buncefield explosion?
    Not sure but I saw some pretty brutal numbers about the size of our reserves vs our EU cousins.
    Germany about 80 days:
    https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/gas-instruments-used-to-secure-gas-supply.html

    We're less than a tenth of that.

    There's a table on page 52 of this report, if you're really interested.
    https://www.gie.eu/wp-content/uploads/filr/3517/Picturing the value of gas storage to the European hydrogen system_FINAL_140621.pdf
    Yes thanks. Interesting - I was using this one.

    https://ukerc.ac.uk/publications/future-uk-gas-security-a-position-paper/

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby

    That analogy only works if you include Rosemary's Baby in the mix.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    Your politics of envy are showing.

    And how are your mum and dad these days?
    Mum died some time ago.

    Dad, despite being born in in the red wall in 1935 and having left school at 14, is a keen Remainer. He thinks (from the comfortable position of NZ) that Brexit is a load of crap.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Wonderful run this morning around Grantchester. Yesterday I discovered a series of concessionary footpaths across fields that I never knew about, so I jogged along these to the M11, then north towards Cambridge, and then back along the River Cam, which was stunningly beautiful in the sunshine. Farmers toiling in the fields; the sun glinting on the water; cows farting as I passed; a heron perched a few metres away from me; a pleasant chats with tourists from Galway.

    Sometimes I utterly love the Cambridge area.

    Over nine miles run, and probably only a quarter of a mile on roads.

    I did resist nipping into the Orchard for a cream tea, if only because I was sweaty and shirtless. ;)

    You just needed the scythe to complete the image...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Sorry Big G, I know you’d set your hopes on this one.

    PM's spokesman, asked about UK wanting to join US/Mex/Can free trade area: "That's not an approach we are currently taking."
    Kite downed.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    Quoting myself from last night.

    "I'd like to say - the UK won't join USMCA. The idea is ridiculous."

    It's still a ridiculous idea and glad to see that's been recognised by the government.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
  • Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Gove, surely?
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
  • Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Or maybe Gove?
  • Wonderful run this morning around Grantchester. Yesterday I discovered a series of concessionary footpaths across fields that I never knew about, so I jogged along these to the M11, then north towards Cambridge, and then back along the River Cam, which was stunningly beautiful in the sunshine. Farmers toiling in the fields; the sun glinting on the water; cows farting as I passed; a heron perched a few metres away from me; a pleasant chats with tourists from Galway.

    Sometimes I utterly love the Cambridge area.

    Over nine miles run, and probably only a quarter of a mile on roads.

    I did resist nipping into the Orchard for a cream tea, if only because I was sweaty and shirtless. ;)

    The Strava Global Heatmap is a great way to find footpaths and routes that aren't obvious from an Ordnance Survey map. Although not all turn out to be entirely legal. Very useful if you are going somewhere new.

    It also shows how dense the population is in England and the Low Countries compared to other parts of Europe...
    That's really useful, thanks. I already see lots of people go along a track I avoided today, as it did not seem to be runnable. At least if I trespass I won't be alone. ;)

    Some farmers and landowners can be really good to cyclists or walkers, allowing people free access. Others... are less so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited September 2021

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Gove, surely?
    Addicted to Gove? A niche activity surely..

    Your lights are on, but you're not home
    Your mind is not your own
    Your heart sweats, your body shakes
    Another kiss is what it takes

    You can't sleep, you can't eat
    There's no doubt, you're in deep
    Your throat is tight, you can't breathe
    Another kiss is all you need

    Might as well face it, you're addicted to Gove
    Might as well face it, you're addicted to Gove
    Might as well face it, you're addicted to Gove
    Might as well face it, you're addicted to Gove
    Might as well face it, you're addicted to Gove
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    Thankfully we don’t have to put up with that offensively rude, drunk tw@ on here any more!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Gove, surely?
    As I understood it, Gove was (allegedly?) more of a small 'c' coke addict...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    You may be horrified to learn of some of the BBC expenses codes in that case. That wasn't coke of the diet variety either.
  • DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    It's just supply and demand in action. They can make a product that we demand but weren't prepared to produce it given their costs at the old price. So a negotiation has happened and now a price has been agreed to allow them to start supply again.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,363
    edited September 2021
    DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    Shouldn't it be the companies that need CO2 bunging them money? That's how the free market works, isn't it?

    If a foreign-owned company decides to stop producing something I need to run my business, will the government step in and pay them to keep producing that item?
  • Wonderful run this morning around Grantchester. Yesterday I discovered a series of concessionary footpaths across fields that I never knew about, so I jogged along these to the M11, then north towards Cambridge, and then back along the River Cam, which was stunningly beautiful in the sunshine. Farmers toiling in the fields; the sun glinting on the water; cows farting as I passed; a heron perched a few metres away from me; a pleasant chats with tourists from Galway.

    Sometimes I utterly love the Cambridge area.

    Over nine miles run, and probably only a quarter of a mile on roads.

    I did resist nipping into the Orchard for a cream tea, if only because I was sweaty and shirtless. ;)

    The Strava Global Heatmap is a great way to find footpaths and routes that aren't obvious from an Ordnance Survey map. Although not all turn out to be entirely legal. Very useful if you are going somewhere new.

    It also shows how dense the population is in England and the Low Countries compared to other parts of Europe...
    I hope your last sentence isn't misconstrued by some on here. Suggesting that the population in England is denser than in other parts of Europe (e.g. France) could provoke some apoplectic rage.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Northern Ireland saved from CO2 shortage via access to single market CO2.

    https://twitter.com/dhoneyford/status/1440346160594440192?s=21

    Come out you Black and Tans (the drink, that is.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,266
    edited September 2021
    'https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1440647305372131332?s=21

    And has Trudeau applied to join AUUKUS yet? We were categorically assured that the only reason Canada wasn't involved was because an election was underway.'

    He and Ardern aren't that interested, they are more focused on keeping strong trade links with China and Canada through Quebec (Trudeau's native province) is also closer to France and the EU than the UK, Australia and the USA are.

    Remember too Canada and New Zealand refused to send troops to fight in the 2003 Iraq War unlike the UK and Australia who fought alongside the Americans.

    The Anglosphere is really 2 spheres, the US, UK and Australia in the inner core (at least politically and militarily), Canada and NZ on the outer core.

    Much like the EU is 2 spheres, the Eurozone on the inner core and non Eurozone Scandinavia and most of Eastern Europe (and the UK when it was in the EU) in the outer core
  • Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Gove, surely?
    Addicted to Gove? A niche activity..

    Your lights are on, but you're not home
    Your mind is not your own
    Your heart sweats, your body shakes
    Another kiss is what it takes

    You can't sleep, you can't eat
    There's no doubt, you're in deep
    Your throat is tight, you can't breathe
    Another kiss is all you need

    Gove Hurts.
    I Want to Know what Gove Is.
    You Give Gove A Bad Name.
    How Deep is Your Gove?
    Crazy Little Thing Called Gove.
    Can You Feel the Gove Tonight?

    I might as well face it, I’m addicted to Gove.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    You may be horrified to learn of some of the BBC expenses codes in that case. That wasn't coke of the diet variety either.
    I would happily vote for forced nationalisation of the company holding the nation’s food chain to ransom. I do at times increasingly wish Jezza and John McD had won. If we’re not gonna have the version of the Tories that doesn’t tax jobs and willingly smashes some bones of motorway blockers, we may as well have Old Labour and nationalisation of strategic producers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited September 2021

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641394
    ...The Times also reported that ministers were concerned that the UK might have to close its six advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactors, which also use CO2.
    The government announced late on Tuesday night that it would meet the full operating costs to run CF Industries' Billingham plant in Teesside for three weeks. The costs are expected to be in the "low tens of millions" and will be below £50m.
    Mr Eustice said that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".
    At the end of the three-week period, it is hoped that the price of carbon dioxide will have risen sufficiently to make it economically viable for CF Industries to keep production running.
    Mr Eustice said the food industry would have to accept "a big, sharp rise" carbon dioxide prices from £200 to £1,000 a tonne....


    I think a little more attention needs to be paid by government to economic resilience, which given the stresses of Brexit etc, really can't just be left to the market.

    It's the problem with the Gove/Cummings "burn everything down so that good stuff can spontaneously appear in its wake" theory of government. It would be lovely not to have to plan, but before it gets to an equilibrium, a totally unfettered market can pass through some pretty hair-raising transient states.

    The survivors of evolution achieve remarkable things; Matt Ridley has written tonnes of stuff on this. What gets underplayed is that natural selection needs a lot of failures to die in order that the successes can succeed.
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock ?
    Lord Ridley of Northern Rock, Brexit and being mates with Dom[1], yes.

    [1] https://www.hoover.org/research/how-innovation-works-matt-ridley-1
    Thewre is actually a long-standing theoretical evolutionary construct called the cost of [natural] selection. Originated by none other than J. B. S. Haldane. See this (the M. Ridley D. PHil. (Oxon) Zoology who features here [edit] is not, however, the M. W. Ridley D. Phil. (Oxon) Zoology who is being discussed above)

    https://www.blackwellpublishing.com/ridley/a-z/Cost_of_natural_selection.asp
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    Should it be the companies that need CO2 bunging them money? That's how the free market works, isn't it?
    I think the issue is that this is sale of a by-product rather than the primary one. They make their money selling fertiliser and the cash they get for CO2 is probably little more than pin money. Restarting fertiliser production and putting the losses of that onto CO2 were probably considered as unviable at the time given how big the price increase would need to be (as it turns out 5x with a state subsidy).

    What it shows is that the UK has a lot of structural economic weakness. The US would never find itself in this situation because it has a strategic petroleum reserve. We have not invested in economic resilience for 40 years and now all of the debt from those poor decisions is being repaid.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited September 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    Your politics of envy are showing.

    And how are your mum and dad these days?
    Mum died some time ago.

    Dad, despite being born in in the red wall in 1935 and having left school at 14, is a keen Remainer. He thinks (from the comfortable position of NZ) that Brexit is a load of crap.
    My objection is the way you use unacceptable language to a group of people who are no doubt not only parents, but greatly loved grandparents, and who live their increasing frail life entirely for their family and would recoil in horror if they thought your views were common currency to their age group

    By all means argue your point, which has some merit, but please stop referring to the elderly and pensioners in this nasty way and make your arguments on the merit of that argument

    I do not want to sound out of order but I just do not see why pensioners should receive such abuse

    One day you will be old and may well suffer the incontinence that you refer to, and though fortunately I do not suffer it, it is the most unpleasant thing for anyone and is very personal and embarrassing to them and really upsets their dignity
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    It was really all about the bloody EU making us play cricket in April and September! Even now they are forcing us to stop using batsman and call them batters......
    The ancient MCC v Lithuanian Combined Universities XI fixture always took place at Fenners in April. It goes back to 1893.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    IshmaelZ said:

    glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    Your politics of envy are showing.

    And how are your mum and dad these days?
    Mum died some time ago.

    Dad, despite being born in in the red wall in 1935 and having left school at 14, is a keen Remainer. He thinks (from the comfortable position of NZ) that Brexit is a load of crap.
    My objection is the way you use unacceptable language to a group of people who are no doubt are not only parents, but greatly loved grandparents, and who live their increasing frail life entirely for their family and would recoil in horror is they thought your views were common currency to their age group

    By all means argue your point, which has some merit, but please stop referring to the elderly and pensioners in this nasty way and make your arguments on the merit of that argument

    I do not want to sound out of order but I just do not see why pensioners should receive such abuse

    One day you will be old and may well suffer incontinence that you refer to, and though fortunately I do not suffer it, it is the most unpleasant thing for a anyone and is vey personal and embarrassing to them and upsets their dignity
    TBF I read 'incontinent' as being very free with their sentiments and views (e.g. at the golf club) rather than in the other sense.
  • BBC News - NFT-based fantasy football card firm raises $680m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58572389

    Unbelievable, did these people miss Football Index....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    BBC News - NFT-based fantasy football card firm raises $680m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58572389

    Unbelievable, did these people miss Football Index....

    That can’t possibly end well!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    Thankfully we don’t have to put up with that offensively rude, drunk tw@ on here any more!
    Everyone's a big man when he's gone, but you wouldn't say that to his face.
  • Sandpit said:

    BBC News - NFT-based fantasy football card firm raises $680m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58572389

    Unbelievable, did these people miss Football Index....

    That can’t possibly end well!
    Classic bubble stuff.
    No French firm could possibly be a unicorn!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited September 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    Thankfully we don’t have to put up with that offensively rude, drunk tw@ on here any more!
    Everyone's a big man when he's gone, but you wouldn't say that to his face.
    Oh, I quite possibly did ;)

    Hopefully taken in the humourous way in which it was intended.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Survation.
    @Survation
    ·
    10m
    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 40% (-)
    LAB 35% (-1)
    LD 8% (-1)
    GRN 4% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 8% (+3)

    1060, online, UK adults aged 18+, 20-21 Sept 21. Changes w/ 10-14 Sep 21
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    It's just supply and demand in action. They can make a product that we demand but weren't prepared to produce it given their costs at the old price. So a negotiation has happened and now a price has been agreed to allow them to start supply again.
    This latest example of a Prime Minister spinning “crisis, what crisis” seems to have a lot of legs to it.

    And thank goodness for Boris Border with the EU down the Irish Sea, sparing Northern Ireland from the CO2 crisis on mainland Brexit Britain?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    Though to extend the analogy, it's a baby where one of the parents (OK, .96 of one of the parents) was against having the baby in the first place. And, unlike actual babies, this one hasn't turned out to be so cute that all your doubts disappear. The parent with doubts is still saying "don't you dare come anywhere near me with that... thing". (Amiright, fellas?)

    And, extending the analogy in a different direction, a lot of the pressure for bringing this baby into the world came from its grandparents who really wanted to be grandparents but aren't the ones having to look after the poor wretch.

    It may turn out fine, but I'd be making sure I had the number of Social Services, just in case.
  • algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Talking of which, much as I approve of the two-stage County Championship, we may be pushing the envelope of sensible contests between bat and ball by having matches this deep into September.

    11:02 Day 2
    ESSEX BEAT NORTHANTS BY AN INNINGS & 44 RUNS
    Essex 170 v Northants 81 and 45
    Yes, there should really be no cricket matches in the northern hemisphere from today until Spring, it should be football and rugby only.

    Having said that the Football season should start now not in August when the Premier League restarts
    In 1971 the final three day CC matches started on 11th September.

    The final Test Match (of 6 that summer) started on 19th August.

    The first CC matches started on 1 May (all April FC fixtures were MCC or University matches).

    There is a lot to be said for it.

    Covered pitches and groundskeeping technology means the pitches are fine, its the atmospherics thats the issue. I woke to mist again today, and that moisture is what causes results like the above.

    Re the season - they are trying to cram too many tournaments in in blocks. Need to return to the idea of parallel competitions. T20 on friday and saturday, 4 days start on monday. Find space for one day cup somewhere and bugger the hundred. Put the money into T20 live on BBC. Simples.
    The reason to put competitions into blocks is so that you can attract the best international players to your best competition.

    The days when the best players would spend all summer playing in the English County game have gone. There are other options for them now.

    I think the end-state is most players specialising in either first-class or limited overs cricket.
  • maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    Thankfully we don’t have to put up with that offensively rude, drunk tw@ on here any more!
    Everyone's a big man when he's gone, but you wouldn't say that to his face.
    Faces.
    And frequently.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited September 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    Bad analogy you should mention that to SeanT if you ever bump into him at that bijou place in Hampstead.

    It is like having a baby with all the frustrations, heartbreak, satisfaction and so forth that this can apparently bring. And then, when it gets to its stroppy teenage years you are so frustrated, angry and irritated, you give it up for adoption.
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    Should it be the companies that need CO2 bunging them money? That's how the free market works, isn't it?
    I think the issue is that this is sale of a by-product rather than the primary one. They make their money selling fertiliser and the cash they get for CO2 is probably little more than pin money. Restarting fertiliser production and putting the losses of that onto CO2 were probably considered as unviable at the time given how big the price increase would need to be (as it turns out 5x with a state subsidy).

    What it shows is that the UK has a lot of structural economic weakness. The US would never find itself in this situation because it has a strategic petroleum reserve. We have not invested in economic resilience for 40 years and now all of the debt from those poor decisions is being repaid.
    Surely the onus is on those companies that need CO2 to ensure that their supplies are sufficiently secure and diversified. It's not the government's job to protect such companies from foreseeable risk (c.f. the current woes afflicting utility companies).
  • TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    Bad analogy you should mention that to SeanT if you ever bump into him at that bijou place in Hampstead.

    It is like having a baby with all the frustrations, heartbreak, satisfaction and so forth that this can apparently bring. And then, when it gets to its stroppy teenage years you are so frustrated, angry and irritated, you give him up for adoption.
    It’s an ugly bastard.
    Definitely looks like Nigel Farage in a certain light.

    Certain cultures, wrongly called “primitive”, practiced routine infanticide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,266

    Survation.
    @Survation
    ·
    10m
    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 40% (-)
    LAB 35% (-1)
    LD 8% (-1)
    GRN 4% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 8% (+3)

    1060, online, UK adults aged 18+, 20-21 Sept 21. Changes w/ 10-14 Sep 21

    Electoral calculus gives a Conservative majority of 8 on the new Survation numbers with the Tories on 329 seats and Labour on 236
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Pret A Manger hiring 3k new workers and planning to double in size within five years:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58643647

    Is that the same Pret A Manger who we were told in 2017 couldn't survive Brexit because it is so dependent upon low paid immigrant workers ?

    The same low paid immigrant workers we're told who have all left the UK ?

    Any source for that (the idea that Pret couldn’t survive) or did you just make it up like all your other posts?

    I am pleasantly surprised to see Pret expanding given the blow they’ve received during Covid. I take this as a vote of confidence in the revival of cities.
    It is a remarkable "fact" that Brexit has no negative impacts. Honda closed Swindon because of a Japanese deal with the EU. Ford closed Bridgend because of a change to electric vehicles. There is a pan European driver shortage. There are no gaps on Supermarket shelves. We don't want a trade deal with the US after all and a contra deal with the lactose intolerant Japanese, Cheddar cheese for Toyota cars is genius and way better than dealing with the EU tarrif-free.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Talking of which, much as I approve of the two-stage County Championship, we may be pushing the envelope of sensible contests between bat and ball by having matches this deep into September.

    11:02 Day 2
    ESSEX BEAT NORTHANTS BY AN INNINGS & 44 RUNS
    Essex 170 v Northants 81 and 45
    Yes, there should really be no cricket matches in the northern hemisphere from today until Spring, it should be football and rugby only.

    Having said that the Football season should start now not in August when the Premier League restarts
    In 1971 the final three day CC matches started on 11th September.

    The final Test Match (of 6 that summer) started on 19th August.

    The first CC matches started on 1 May (all April FC fixtures were MCC or University matches).

    There is a lot to be said for it.

    Covered pitches and groundskeeping technology means the pitches are fine, its the atmospherics thats the issue. I woke to mist again today, and that moisture is what causes results like the above.

    Re the season - they are trying to cram too many tournaments in in blocks. Need to return to the idea of parallel competitions. T20 on friday and saturday, 4 days start on monday. Find space for one day cup somewhere and bugger the hundred. Put the money into T20 live on BBC. Simples.
    The reason to put competitions into blocks is so that you can attract the best international players to your best competition.

    The days when the best players would spend all summer playing in the English County game have gone. There are other options for them now.

    I think the end-state is most players specialising in either first-class or limited overs cricket.
    We end up with cricket being more like tennis or golf - with the very best short-game players turning up in a new country every few weeks to play for the big money, while a lot of journeymen and semi-pros continue to play at Test and county level respectively.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    Though to extend the analogy, it's a baby where one of the parents (OK, .96 of one of the parents) was against having the baby in the first place. And, unlike actual babies, this one hasn't turned out to be so cute that all your doubts disappear. The parent with doubts is still saying "don't you dare come anywhere near me with that... thing". (Amiright, fellas?)

    And, extending the analogy in a different direction, a lot of the pressure for bringing this baby into the world came from its grandparents who really wanted to be grandparents but aren't the ones having to look after the poor wretch.

    It may turn out fine, but I'd be making sure I had the number of Social Services, just in case.
    It's like having a baby but when it comes out it's web footed, boss eyed and its heart is on the outside of its torso.
  • Sandpit said:

    BBC News - NFT-based fantasy football card firm raises $680m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58572389

    Unbelievable, did these people miss Football Index....

    That can’t possibly end well!
    Its the worst of both world, its NFTs without the scarcity that in very limited circumstances does have same value i.e
    A digital artitst creating a piece where you are the only owner to that.

    Same as football index was share trading, but they just created more totally at will and "dividends" created out of thin air.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    But having a baby isn't very unpredictable. When you're due, out it comes, a baby, and usually you even know the sex.
  • Pret A Manger hiring 3k new workers and planning to double in size within five years:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58643647

    Is that the same Pret A Manger who we were told in 2017 couldn't survive Brexit because it is so dependent upon low paid immigrant workers ?

    The same low paid immigrant workers we're told who have all left the UK ?

    Any source for that (the idea that Pret couldn’t survive) or did you just make it up like all your other posts?

    I am pleasantly surprised to see Pret expanding given the blow they’ve received during Covid. I take this as a vote of confidence in the revival of cities.
    It is a remarkable "fact" that Brexit has no negative impacts. Honda closed Swindon because of a Japanese deal with the EU. Ford closed Bridgend because of a change to electric vehicles. There is a pan European driver shortage. There are no gaps on Supermarket shelves. We don't want a trade deal with the US after all and a contra deal with the lactose intolerant Japanese, Cheddar cheese for Toyota cars is genius and way better than dealing with the EU tarrif-free.
    On the brighter side, the Emperor is resplendent in his off-the-neck velveteen number and we have all of the sovereignty you can eat!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely glorious day in London today! Think I might get a group together and go to the beer garden at the Crown and Shuttle on the way home today.

    Today is the first day of Autumn*
    Lucky indeed it is beer-gardenable.

    *I am sure @HYUFD would agree.
    Talking of which, much as I approve of the two-stage County Championship, we may be pushing the envelope of sensible contests between bat and ball by having matches this deep into September.

    11:02 Day 2
    ESSEX BEAT NORTHANTS BY AN INNINGS & 44 RUNS
    Essex 170 v Northants 81 and 45
    Yes, there should really be no cricket matches in the northern hemisphere from today until Spring, it should be football and rugby only.

    Having said that the Football season should start now not in August when the Premier League restarts
    In 1971 the final three day CC matches started on 11th September.

    The final Test Match (of 6 that summer) started on 19th August.

    The first CC matches started on 1 May (all April FC fixtures were MCC or University matches).

    There is a lot to be said for it.

    Covered pitches and groundskeeping technology means the pitches are fine, its the atmospherics thats the issue. I woke to mist again today, and that moisture is what causes results like the above.

    Re the season - they are trying to cram too many tournaments in in blocks. Need to return to the idea of parallel competitions. T20 on friday and saturday, 4 days start on monday. Find space for one day cup somewhere and bugger the hundred. Put the money into T20 live on BBC. Simples.
    It’s not often I use unparliamentary language on PB, but I have to say you are talking unqualified gibberish in this case. Essex have been deliberately preparing inadequate 4 day pitches match after match recently, on basis they have the best attack in the country so playing to that strength, rather than nullifying it a bit with a proper balanced pitch.

    This format encourages wins over draws.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited September 2021

    Survation.
    @Survation
    ·
    10m
    NEW – Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON 40% (-)
    LAB 35% (-1)
    LD 8% (-1)
    GRN 4% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    OTH 8% (+3)

    1060, online, UK adults aged 18+, 20-21 Sept 21. Changes w/ 10-14 Sep 21

    I am very surprised how the conservatives are marginally increasing their lead notwithstanding Boris success with Biden on climate change and AUKUS, as the news agenda is dominated by the energy and cost of living crisis

    It was interesting that Kwasi Kwarteng, who I think is doing quite well, said at the business select committee this morning that there is a budget in October and to wait for that as Rishi will reveal all then

    Seems the precursor to schemes that hopefully will help the low aid and impoverished pensioners
  • Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    So we have food? Could nationalise their plants I suppose as an alternative. Otherwise we have to suck it up and pay the ransom now.
    That, ultimately, is the thing that should stop them playing silly buggers in the long-term. This has been all over the news, so if they try it on in the future, then there will - quite rightly - be calls to simply nationalise the plant.
    If they are pushing their price up from £200 to £1000 per ton, it's suddenly going to look quite attractive for a brewery (for example) which isn't doing so now, to start collecting the (food grade) CO2 that they currently vent to atmosphere.
    It will take a bit of time to commission the necessary kit, but probably not that long.

    The market works, eventually.
    But the amount of damage this could have done in relation to the value of what they were producing is quite disturbing. Imagine if we had been forced to shut down our AGCR nuclear plants.
    The obvious solution to this problem is surely just to ban fizzy drinks (which are horrible things anyway) and fizzy lager (ditto), freeing up the remaining CO2 for the useful things it's used for. That would have lessened the crisis and perhaps the size of the taxpayer bung required too? Otherwise, my hard earned cash is basically being used to subsidise other people's diet coke habits.
    I see Rishi's hand in this, given his self-confessed Coke addiction.
    Gove, surely?
    Addicted to Gove? A niche activity..

    Your lights are on, but you're not home
    Your mind is not your own
    Your heart sweats, your body shakes
    Another kiss is what it takes

    You can't sleep, you can't eat
    There's no doubt, you're in deep
    Your throat is tight, you can't breathe
    Another kiss is all you need

    Gove Hurts.
    I Want to Know what Gove Is.
    You Give Gove A Bad Name.
    How Deep is Your Gove?
    Crazy Little Thing Called Gove.
    Can You Feel the Gove Tonight?

    I might as well face it, I’m addicted to Gove.
    Sarah Vine:

    It must have been Gove
    But it's over now.
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    But having a baby isn't very unpredictable. When you're due, out it comes, a baby, and usually you even know the sex.
    It is not yet clear what species this is, although it does not appear human.

    It has not yet learned to walk, but can already spin its head 360 degrees and vomit ectoplasm.
  • Family Guy joins the neoLib, Bill Gates, mind control conspiracy.

    https://twitter.com/FamilyGuyonFOX/status/1440354341580251136?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    But having a baby isn't very unpredictable. When you're due, out it comes, a baby, and usually you even know the sex.
    Lordy, you're such an accountant

    Becoming a father changed me in enormous ways, emotionally and practically, that I hadn't even considered. eg The power of the parental instinct, the reflexive love, can only be understood once you have actually experienced it
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    With all due respect to SeanT (PBUH) it is a terrible ananogy. Most of the life changes that come with having a child are eminently predictable and quite manageable. And it is a delightful experience right from the start. The closer analogy I think is a divorce, perhaps from someone you found difficult to live with but start to miss once you have split up. And for Remainers, of course, it is more like a bereavement.
    I am speaking as someone blessed with plenty of experience of having children, limited experience of bereavement and no experience of divorce, so judge my analogies accordingly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - NFT-based fantasy football card firm raises $680m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58572389

    Unbelievable, did these people miss Football Index....

    That can’t possibly end well!
    Its the worst of both world, its NFTs without the scarcity that in very limited circumstances does have same value i.e
    A digital artitst creating a piece where you are the only owner to that.

    Same as football index was share trading, but they just created more totally at will and "dividends" created out of thin air.
    Presumably the plan is to create an artificial scarcity related to the trading platform, so they’ll only mint a few hundred of some players, but thousands of others - just like the old Panini sticker packs we had as kids?

    Of course, for all the money we spent on them, they were pretty much worthless at the end of the season. Great business for the maker of the sticker books though, and for the football clubs and league who got a big image-rights payment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited September 2021
    The best analogy is that Brexit is like a giant poo.

    After much straining, you feel a moment’s relief, only to realise you have suffered a massive rectal prolapse.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1440651945539096577?s=21

    Seb Payne on why there won’t be an early election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    DavidL said:

    gealbhan said:

    BBC:

    'Environment Secretary George Eustice told the BBC that the deal with CF Industries "will be not a loan, it will be a payment to underwrite some of their fixed costs".'

    Numpty. It is their increase in variable costs that has caused them to shut down, not their fixed costs. I hope he wasn't the one to agree the deal.

    Kwasi Kwarteng negotiated the deal
    Aren’t they a rich American company? Why are we bunging them tax payer money?
    Because we urgently need CO2 for a whole range of other uses including food, medicine and, oh yes, nuclear power?
    Shouldn't it be the companies that need CO2 bunging them money? That's how the free market works, isn't it?

    If a foreign-owned company decides to stop producing something I need to run my business, will the government step in and pay them to keep producing that item?
    They might - it depends how much short term damage might be caused to the economy as a whole by the cessation of supply, compared with the cost of getting it going. In this case that would have added up to a great deal more than £50m.
    And if you'd left it to the market it would have taken weeks.

    CF Industries (apparently) produce around 5000t of CO2 per week.
    The price is going up from £200 to £1000 per tonne - so the £50m from the government for three weeks' supply from a standing start is well above the new 'market' price.

    The CO2 was only a by-product - the 'market' was for fertiliser. Selling the waste gas at a low price kept others out of the market.
    And the CO2 goes to innumerable small customers as well as the bigger ones like the nuclear power stations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    glw said:

    Even worse for the last couple of decades some people seem to have gotten the bizarre and twisted idea that rising house prices are a very good sign of "prosperity" while rising wages are a disastrous sign of "inflation".

    As a result we've managed to get "high prosperity" and "low inflation" that simply means people are completely costed out of society.

    The idea that house prices rising is a good thing is to me the single most perplexingly studid thing about this country. Newspapers litterally celebrate house prices rocketing, but they lament even tiny increases in the cost of goods and services. It's bonkers.
    Makes total sense once you realise that most newspapers are there to promote right wing talking points to an audience of angry, incontinent oldies who happen to own property.
    Your politics of envy are showing.

    And how are your mum and dad these days?
    Mum died some time ago.

    Dad, despite being born in in the red wall in 1935 and having left school at 14, is a keen Remainer. He thinks (from the comfortable position of NZ) that Brexit is a load of crap.
    My objection is the way you use unacceptable language to a group of people who are no doubt are not only parents, but greatly loved grandparents, and who live their increasing frail life entirely for their family and would recoil in horror is they thought your views were common currency to their age group

    By all means argue your point, which has some merit, but please stop referring to the elderly and pensioners in this nasty way and make your arguments on the merit of that argument

    I do not want to sound out of order but I just do not see why pensioners should receive such abuse

    One day you will be old and may well suffer incontinence that you refer to, and though fortunately I do not suffer it, it is the most unpleasant thing for a anyone and is vey personal and embarrassing to them and upsets their dignity
    TBF I read 'incontinent' as being very free with their sentiments and views (e.g. at the golf club) rather than in the other sense.
    That's most of PB.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1440651945539096577?s=21

    Seb Payne on why there won’t be an early election

    To misquote James Carville - it’s the boundary changes, stupid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited September 2021

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby
    But having a baby isn't very unpredictable. When you're due, out it comes, a baby, and usually you even know the sex.
    It is not yet clear what species this is, although it does not appear human.

    It has not yet learned to walk, but can already spin its head 360 degrees and vomit ectoplasm.
    You, and your fellow Remoaners, are the unwilling father from Up The Junction, by Squeeze, and the final stanza foretells your fate


    This morning at four fifty
    I took her rather nifty
    Down to an incubator
    Where thirty minutes later
    She gave birth to a daughter
    Within a year a walker
    She looked just like her mother
    If there could be another

    And now she's two years older
    Her mother's with a soldier
    She left me when my drinking
    Became a proper stinging
    The devil came and took me
    From bar to street to bookie
    No more nights by the telly
    No more nights nappies smelly

    Alone here in the kitchen
    I feel there's something missing
    I'd beg for some forgiveness
    But begging's not my business
    And she won't write a letter
    Although I always tell her
    And so it's my assumption
    I'm really up the junction
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Brexit was about exciting new trade deals until they don't transpire, then it was never about that.

    And Brexit wasn't about a tripartite military alliance with the US and Australia until this happens, then it was always about that.

    I sense we'll see much of this so might as well get used to it.

    I am reminded of this quote in the Spectator from the late, great SeanT, who told us, when he compared Brexit to "having a baby", that

    "Secondly, Brexit isn't any old political change, it's a profound life-change. Trying to predict what the economy will be doing ten years after Brexit, is like trying to guess exactly what furniture you will own, and how happy you might be, ten years after you first become a parent. Brexit is huge, dynamic, scary, turbulent, wholly unique, and inherently unpredictable: it will change our economy and our polity in good and bad ways we cannot, by definition, even begin to predict. This is why the forecasts have already proved to be so rubbish."

    Brexit is INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. It will change our economy and politics in ways we cannot foresee

    He was right. I hope this prophetic character returns

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-brexit-is-just-like-having-a-baby



    You have to admire the chutzpah of arguing that something will have huge and unpredictable effects, including bad ones, as an argument for doing it. A lesser mortal would have taken the opposite view. If only we had someone with this leonine level of genius and perpicacity gracing this forum currently!
    Yes, he is a grave loss to the site


    However the overall analogy explains all this. Brexit is like having a baby. Your first baby. Everyone who willingly becomes a parent knows (unless they are exceptionally dim or crazy) that this will mean fundamental life changes, and not all of them will be good. Some, indeed, will be pretty bloody bad. Everyone has seen the harrassed young mum with a screaming brat

    Nevertheless, instinctively, most people want to take the risk and have the baby


    To continue the analogy, I wonder where we are now. Perhaps AUKUS is that precious moment when, after six months of constant whining, mewling and nappy changing, the baby looks up, and smiles at you. And you think Wow, this really is what I wanted

    That means there's still lots of bad stuff to come. The terrible twos!
    Though to extend the analogy, it's a baby where one of the parents (OK, .96 of one of the parents) was against having the baby in the first place. And, unlike actual babies, this one hasn't turned out to be so cute that all your doubts disappear. The parent with doubts is still saying "don't you dare come anywhere near me with that... thing". (Amiright, fellas?)

    And, extending the analogy in a different direction, a lot of the pressure for bringing this baby into the world came from its grandparents who really wanted to be grandparents but aren't the ones having to look after the poor wretch.

    It may turn out fine, but I'd be making sure I had the number of Social Services, just in case.
    It's like having a baby but when it comes out it's web footed, boss eyed and its heart is on the outside of its torso.
    I thought it was an oven ready meal deal we were promised not just a bun in the oven.
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