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Punters see WH2024 as a re-run of WH2020 – Biden v Trump – politicalbetting.com
Punters see WH2024 as a re-run of WH2020 – Biden v Trump – politicalbetting.com
In spite of their ages, Trump’s 75 and Biden 78, the two men who were their party’s nominees last time continue to head the betting for WH2024.
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My point is that Japan seems to have survived perfectly well by simply printing money since about 2010. I believe that of the 250% debt-to-GDP, around 180% (of GDP) is held by the BOJ.
I think they should have been called SheMirnaty, SheVax and SheZevira.
More seriously, WTF, why are they doing this? Surely this will just cause more confusion, people turn up and told they are getting some weird name they have never heard of.
Therefore, change the name. It may help at the margins.
a) all those social media propaganda channels will pump this out (and probably come up with some crazy spin of these are reformulated to do an even better job of mind control)
and if you were just really hesitant,
b) I would probably even more suspicious of what are these different ones I have never heard of, wondering if they are Chinese ones that I heard they had that aren't as good...or something.
Comfortable Lab hold in Ealing.
Lab hold in Sheffield. 25% swing to LD's mind.
Malvern Hills count tomorrow.
"Conservatives 39% (+6)
Labour 35% (nc)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-3)"
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1438642258178412546/
It is absolutely buzzing.
More confirmation, were any needed, that London is the greatest city in the world.
https://www.lemonde.fr
Long Covid less common than feared - ONS study
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58584558
The measures are a first for Europe and some of the strictest in the world.
Anyone without a pass will reportedly face suspension from work and may have their pay stopped after five days.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58590187
Buried deep in the article you can only imagine the angst in the Guardian having to write this:
"But France’s exclusion shows the extent to which the US does not trust it with nuclear technology. This is a big win for Boris Johnson, and those that said post-Brexit Britain would remain more important to the US than the EU, even if it is going to alarm the pro-China business lobby in the UK. "
* If Trump is going to be the nominee, Biden will want to run. He beat him before, he knows Kamala would be a shitty candidate against Trump, he'll be old but his opponent will also be old. He'd have a tougher time against a fresh face, and might be inclined to pass the torch.
* If Biden is running and the Dem nom is uncontested, it's likely Trump loses the nomination even if he runs. Moderates will want their party back, and politically active centrists will vote on the GOP side.
The Covid pandemic - in the UK, Western Europe, Canada and most of the US - is now over.
Antibody levels are now sufficient to keep R below 1 almost everywhere. Now, sure, there will be isolated communities where it can go on a tear, but we've got kids going back to school, and we still have R below 1. And that's great.
This doesn't mean that everything is over.
Israel has shown that we are probably going to need Covid booster shots. And teenagers probably should get the shot too.
In all likelihood, a Covid booster will join the influenza jab every year. But that's OK. It's a manageable problem. And one that probably slowly disappears as everyone ends up - at some point - getting a mild (or maybe entirely asymptomatic) case of the Covids.
The next POTUS election is, IIRC 2024. Serious campaigning will occur from about Feb of that year onward.
That's two-and-a-half years away. A lot can happen, health-wise, to men in their mid to late 70's in that time, I can assure you! And very little of it good!
Secondly of course, we should bear the words of the late Harold Macmillan in mind 'Events, dear you, events!'
Kamala has sunk without trace.
America.
Somethings are better though, a cracking game of football against Napoli last night, albeit shame to let the lead slip to a 2:2 draw.
And, TBH, a very good thing, too.
By the time we get to the next election people will be hopping mad. Which will leave the Tories with only two options. Lie - say that everything is great and that the professionals reporting problems are Talking Down Britain. Or blame someone else - crap medics, pinko commie judges, whatever.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58587147
"Sir Andrew said: "I have held that, because of the constitutional position of the Sovereign, it is appropriate to have a special practice in relation to royal wills.
"There is a need to enhance the protection afforded to truly private aspects of the lives of this limited group of individuals in order to maintain the dignity of the Sovereign and close members of her family.""
If Trump is running, Biden is the best Democrat to take him on, as the others all have issues that lose some switchers.
If Trump is not running Biden's age could be a serious issue.
I think Biden will feel duty bound to run if Trump does, but is odds against to run otherwise.
If its Biden v Trump, Biden wins based on votes cast and the electoral college, but who actually becomes President is dependent on the 2022 elections and supreme court, not the 2024 election.
So just as a pandemic is no more than business as usual for the human race, we are going to have to reinvent an earlier form of medicine when we had to combat deadly transmissible diseases.
When they interview Indian doctors they have job titles such as Consultant in Infectious Diseases. Not sure your average NHS general hospital has such a thing.
Perhaps Charles or others can comment but I’ve heard it mentioned that in future years we can throw supercomputer modelling at the virus and seek to predict future variants. That way we don’t just get tweaked boosters for the variant of the day but also the variant of tomorrow. Certainly I expect the infectious diseases landscape to be utterly transformed by 2030.
Even if he's guilty, no Jury will be 12 Democrats (and if it were that'd be grounds for appeal surely). And no MAGA is going to convict.
As Trump said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it.
More coffee needed...
The American democratic system is broken and becoming more so. The Republicans claiming fraud in the recall election in California before the votes had even been counted was another sign. One of the major parties in the US is no longer signed up to democratic norms. If they lose they have been cheated even in a deep blue state such as California. There is no acceptance of democratic outcomes. This is not a stable situation and Trump is largely, if not exclusively, responsible.
One of my friends pointed out when delta took off that we were lucky in a way because delta was so competitive vs other known variants but also had almost no diluting effects on vaccines. Her ideal scenario was that everyone under 60 gets a post-vaccine infection with Delta which will amount to nothing or at worst a mild cold because we know that prior infection is the best way to protect against severe symptoms of future infection by any variant.
She also pointed at that this random luck could have gone the other way and delta could have shown the same competitive advantage but also had significant vaccine dilution with just another few mutations that they've modelled (but obviously not synthesised!). It would almost have set the world back to near step 1, waiting on vaccine manufacturers to get their variant specific vaccines approved.
Scheduling is such that there are cases from 2018 which now have court dates for 2023
Lost count of how many times people have said its going to get worse, to no avail.
I'd have had the seditious barsteward wearing an orange jump suit in Attica by now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Catilinarian_conspiracy - Cicero resorted to murder because he didn't think he could get a conviction.
On holidays are masks still required on flights, especially long haul
- England went back to school with low initial incidence amongst youngsters, let's see if that is still true 3 or 4 infection cycles.
- The current fall in incidence substantially relates to transmissions between 5-10/9, when we had a mini heatwave.
There are things that will suppress rates, the reducing attack face from getting nearer herd immunity, immunity from vaccinations and boosters and so on, but I expect the next couple of months to be up and down, and perhaps more up than down in the next weeks..
Between Sulla, Pompey and this (primarily - there were other incidents) , the Rubicon simply became a question of when, and who would do it.
There is going to eye popping levels of trouble at next POTUS election.
The fabled constitution just about managed to keep Trump in check and eventually out of office without too much violence.
I can't see it being able to cope a second time.
Really sad to see a major democracy die like this through its own internal cancer.
P. S. Waiting for the incoming, "but all lorry drivers are now on £50k a year, as are care workers and fruit pickers. It's the Brexit supply and demand Labour bonus".
Hence "one possible interpretation" - the closest thing we will get to confirmation on this will be if the 15-19 age group joins the other vaccinated groups in terms of level and pattern of change.
EDIT : Canossa is the name of the story.
Trump should be in jail. That he and his coupers are instead planning to get re-elected tells you everything you need to know about the state of the place.
Here is reality. The GOP has gone - replaced by hard right radicals. The Republicans are not Grand or Old or Republicans. How does the country pull itself back from this ledge? One side thinks the other are traitors and those views harden over time. When the enemy are traitors you don't pander to them by trying to pretend its a democracy - the DNC will have to copy GOP tactics or it will lose.
All hail Gilead. It is coming.