PHE have had a crack at doing a "What if no vaccinations?" scenario properly (i.e., including effects on transmission.) Conclusion. It would already have peaked. In July. You do have to ignore the heap of 110,000 more bodies though.
Really interesting. Actually lower than I would have expected.
So basically even with vaccines, we have had over half the deaths we would have had anyway. Really brings home the tragedy of how unnecessary the second wave was.
Whilst Christmas was a complete shitshow, I think it's hard to work out what a good winter would have been. Lockdown in September with schools shut until further notice. How sustainable would it have been to stay like that until April?
I mean we did lockdown for what 3 months in Jan, and didn't open schools until June.
So if we'd just done exactly the same thing 2-3 months earlier, we would have had cases rocketing up in April, when most of the vulnerable were vaccinated.
You'd probably need a month or two of extra lockdown to really crush the second wave.
But what a benefit. Boris would be able to crow about one of the lowest death rates in Europe. He'd be throwing out all kinds of sporting metaphors about how it's the second half that really matters.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
Get a saddle, that should help things a bit.
Oh, that's why I found riding so difficult. I suppose I should go mainstream and get some handlebars too?
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Lol. The bike is newer than that. I suspect they were spares the bike shop had lying around when they built it.
She refused flappy paddles as she is a stick-in-the-mud (appropriate, since I think it was cyclocross types that were the last to give them up). Easier to repair in the middle of nowhere though.
If they are going for Zero Covid forever then they are going for zero tourism industry forever. Completely cutting themselves off from the outside world. I'm sure it sounds good to people now, how about in 3 years time?
Quote from the article: “a careful approach that says, there won’t be zero cases, but when there is one in the community, we crush it”
She is saying that if they get a single case of Covid then they are going to impost lockdowns. How is that remotely sustainable. You might as well say lockdown the country if someone gets Flu. Bonkers. I think Jacinda has become so convinced of her own brilliance that she has lost touch with reality.
Auckland is still in total super-lockdown, and when Auckland is in lockdown the whole country is screwed because it commands 40% of the NZ population and a similar proportion of its entire GDP.
Even reading that article, I am unclear as to Jacinda's exit strategy. Is she saying that they will maintain the Damocles Sword on lockdown even after they open their borders? It's beyond delusional if so.
Ministers are having second thoughts on plans to introduce mandatory Covid passports for nightclubs and other “high-risk” venues after Tory MPs tore into the proposals in the Commons.
Serious doubts have emerged over the policy, with officials now looking at whether case rates will require such measures.
A Whitehall source said “no decisions have been made yet” on the proposals, despite the Government insisting that the passes will be mandatory from the end of the month.
Perhaps the shambles north of the border - "vote for it today, details to follow, (like "what a nightclub is")"......will help them think again....
If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?
“ If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?”.
Is there actually an answer to that one?
Yes. Nearly no measure, for anything, in the real world, is 100% effective.
In the case of disease treatment and prevention, it is nearly always - A gets you x%, B gets you y% etc etc
Vaccination reduces the transmission of COVID. Plenty of real world data on that.
“ Vaccination reduces the transmission of COVID. Plenty of real world data on that.”
The science, it’s says yes do it!
We need some sort of passport for large indoor gatherings then, and it would help with large outdoor gatherings too like framed into football stadiums. Going onto a crammed football terrace shouldn’t be classed as an outdoor event.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
Di2. AXS is a good product but the single battery architecture of Di2 is superior IMO.
I've just ordered 2 x full groupsets of the new 12 speed DA R9200 Di2 disc. Great excitement!
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
Get a saddle, that should help things a bit.
Oh, that's why I found riding so difficult. I suppose I should go mainstream and get some handlebars too?
No, you get to snear at fixie users - "No gears? bunch of slackers....."
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Where are the atmosphere things in that equation?
ρ = air density
I have a long neglected copy of Paterson's 'Fluid Dynamics' on the shelf. I might brush up.
Isn't there a viscosity component as well? Or am I thinking small organisms and low Reynolds numbers?
NEW: From today, PHE will publish vaccination status of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalisations over the past 4 weeks in the weekly Vaccination Surveillance Report
Crikey the latter two graphs particularly rather tell their own story, don't they?
The only rational lockdown strategy (if any!) based on that is risk segmentation by vax status. There is simply no justification whatsoever for universal lockdowns anymore.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
concept of "dividing by zero" is the term i heard used....i thought that was quite neat.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
Ministers are having second thoughts on plans to introduce mandatory Covid passports for nightclubs and other “high-risk” venues after Tory MPs tore into the proposals in the Commons.
Serious doubts have emerged over the policy, with officials now looking at whether case rates will require such measures.
A Whitehall source said “no decisions have been made yet” on the proposals, despite the Government insisting that the passes will be mandatory from the end of the month.
Perhaps the shambles north of the border - "vote for it today, details to follow, (like "what a nightclub is")"......will help them think again....
If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?
“ If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?”.
Is there actually an answer to that one?
I think I saw somewhere that double vaccinated individuals are very much not infectious when asymptomatic. So if you combine vaccine passports with people being sensible and not going out when, you know, ill, there will be a decent effect.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Lol. The bike is newer than that. I suspect they were spares the bike shop had lying around when they built it.
She refused flappy paddles as she is a stick-in-the-mud (appropriate, since I think it was cyclocross types that were the last to give them up). Easier to repair in the middle of nowhere though.
Really reduce the part count.
Is that Boris Johnson's initial blueprint for the Boris bike, and by default for governance? It looks like a bike, but it doesn't work as it should. It looks like Brexit/social care/restricted Immigration/Afghan exit, but it doesn't work as it should.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I wonder where on the continuum between a race bike and a mountain bike the ideal bike for such a challenge would be... How good are the byways?
I've walked and run almost all of them, and most aren't too bad - though some are badly rutted (e.g. the old roman Road / Icknield Way). Oddly, they'll probably be less troublesome on a mountainbike than they would be for running. Ditto the vegetation.
But it may be beyond my massively heavy Apollo (don't laugh, DuraAce...). I bought it for approach work in the hills (hence the panniers), and I never used it for that...
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
I started cycling to work this week, it's very nice. It takes me 45 minutes to go a bit over 6 miles so it's probably safe to assume that my FTP is not very impressive. Indeed up to now I thought FTP referred to something in computing or a hostile attitude towards the head of the Roman Catholic Church. You live and learn!
I'm impressed you are so well up on Scottish Unionism! Or do they say that south of the border too? Liverpool?
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
They are following the science as they have done throughout. Personally I think they are right. The evidence on boosters at this stage is really not there. Cases in Spain are falling rapidly now - not ome case in our health area today. There is much greater mask usage in closed spaces here - be interesting to see if it helps prevent a bounce back.
Its really interesting at the moment. In the UK we have a very good coverage of the over 18 population with antibodies (from vaccination, infection or both) but are still getting over 30,000 cases a day. Clearly vaccination is not stopping infection (seen from the ONS data upthread), but it is helping avoid serious illness and death. I can't shake the impression that at some point all the unvaccinated people will have had covid, and that at some point the downward pressure on R will get it to below 1, and cases will fall in the UK. At the moment we are seeing a huge proportion of the cases in the unvaccinated and partially vaxxed cohorts (so school kids up to about 25). Infection here is mostly safe, and so they are getting their jab via the bug. I'm pretty sure now that the UK (or at least England) plan is to have as many cases as possible now, to spread disease acquired immunity as fast as possible, while the NHS can 'cope'.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I wonder where on the continuum between a race bike and a mountain bike the ideal bike for such a challenge would be... How good are the byways?
I've walked and run almost all of them, and most aren't too bad - though some are badly rutted (e.g. the old roman Road / Icknield Way). Oddly, they'll probably be less troublesome on a mountainbike than they would be for running. Ditto the vegetation.
But it may be beyond my massively heavy Apollo (don't laugh, DuraAce...). I bought it for approach work in the hills (hence the panniers), and I never used it for that...
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
They are following the science as they have done throughout. Personally I think they are right. The evidence on boosters at this stage is really not there. Cases in Spain are falling rapidly now - not ome case in our health area today. There is much greater mask usage in closed spaces here - be interesting to see if it helps prevent a bounce back.
Its really interesting at the moment. In the UK we have a very good coverage of the over 18 population with antibodies (from vaccination, infection or both) but are still getting over 30,000 cases a day. Clearly vaccination is not stopping infection (seen from the ONS data upthread), but it is helping avoid serious illness and death. I can't shake the impression that at some point all the unvaccinated people will have had covid, and that at some point the downward pressure on R will get it to below 1, and cases will fall in the UK. At the moment we are seeing a huge proportion of the cases in the unvaccinated and partially vaxxed cohorts (so school kids up to about 25). Infection here is mostly safe, and so they are getting their jab via the bug. I'm pretty sure now that the UK (or at least England) plan is to have as many cases as possible now, to spread disease acquired immunity as fast as possible, while the NHS can 'cope'.
Yes! The exit wave now is a good thing not a bad one!
Lol, Barnier wants to take back control from the ECJ? A belated welcome to the club. I don't see how it's feasible without Frexit though.
Being a Frexiteer is entirely compatible with his previous job. A good qualification in fact - with Boris and Frosty he's had an object lesson in how not to do it.
NEW: From today, PHE will publish vaccination status of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalisations over the past 4 weeks in the weekly Vaccination Surveillance Report
If I'm reading that right, double vaxxed 80+ basically brings your risk vs hospitalisation to the de novo immunity of 18 - 29 yr olds. That's frankly amazing
You are reading that correctly - vaccination reduces your risk by approximately 66% for an 80+ year old. Younger cohorts see greater reductions in hospitalisation rates, dropping to about 85% for for the 20-30 grouping.
Data shows that vaccinations reduce everyone's chance of serious illness and death. However the data also shows that old people die more than young people which will, if it hasn't already, be spun by some to try and show that vaccines don't work.
Table 5 shoots that fox - it has rates per 100K for vax and none vax.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
So, I googled those. Cost more than the last bike I bought (in ~2007 to be fair, as a broke postgrad and I did subsequently replace the wheels, tyres, chainset, cassette, cables, pedals, derailleurs and shifters, but it's still the same bike, for sure!).
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I wonder where on the continuum between a race bike and a mountain bike the ideal bike for such a challenge would be... How good are the byways?
I've walked and run almost all of them, and most aren't too bad - though some are badly rutted (e.g. the old roman Road / Icknield Way). Oddly, they'll probably be less troublesome on a mountainbike than they would be for running. Ditto the vegetation.
But it may be beyond my massively heavy Apollo (don't laugh, DuraAce...). I bought it for approach work in the hills (hence the panniers), and I never used it for that...
So would it be a full mountain bike or a hybrid?
I don't even know what the definitions for those are! But it's got front suspension, and none at the back because of the panniers. It's been a reliable bike, but it just weighs too much, even when the panniers are empty.
I bought my son a 20-inch bike (that's the wheel diameter, apparently) from Halfords, and he loves it. We've managed nine miles together. A friend of his the same age had a racer bought for him by his grandparents, and it weighs a tiny amount in comparison. But he can't go offroad with it, and that's a really good option around here for kids who aren't fully road-savvy.
Lol, Barnier wants to take back control from the ECJ? A belated welcome to the club. I don't see how it's feasible without Frexit though.
Yes, even if he doesn't win, he's making Frexit a mainstream position in France for the first time.
It looks like a Johnsonesque pincer movement to shoot LePen's fox combined with a Cameron election win guarantee strategy from 2015. Unless Barnier has experienced a genuine @williamglenn Eurosceptic conversion he would perhaps be wise to review Cameron's political career history post 2015.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
So, I googled those. Cost more than the last bike I bought (in ~2007 to be fair, as a broke postgrad and I did subsequently replace the wheels, tyres, chainset, cassette, cables, pedals, derailleurs and shifters, but it's still the same bike, for sure!).
That's the logic that @HYUFD applies to his continued support for the Conservative Party.
I suppose in her defence she may have muddled "black horse" with "dark horse" (unknown quantity), but either way it was at the very best a spectacularly mis-judged remark about an African American.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
So, I googled those. Cost more than the last bike I bought (in ~2007 to be fair, as a broke postgrad and I did subsequently replace the wheels, tyres, chainset, cassette, cables, pedals, derailleurs and shifters, but it's still the same bike, for sure!).
That's the logic that @HYUFD applies to his continued support for the Conservative Party.
HYUFD's Tories = Trigger's broom. I like the analogy.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
Di2. AXS is a good product but the single battery architecture of Di2 is superior IMO.
I've just ordered 2 x full groupsets of the new 12 speed DA R9200 Di2 disc. Great excitement!
Also, you can't replace the chainrings on the Red AXS crank and I wear shit out. The disc brakes use noxious and toxic dot fluid rather than the Shimano mineral oil which is another minus.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
Di2. AXS is a good product but the single battery architecture of Di2 is superior IMO.
I've just ordered 2 x full groupsets of the new 12 speed DA R9200 Di2 disc. Great excitement!
I'm sorry I mentioned I was going cycling as I haven't a clue what you lot are on about. I tend to stop at l have a bike (well 2 actually, I do also have an off road bike which in its day apparently was quite good, but beyond my ability to exploit). Tourer is quite basic.
A social care levy that doesn't even fund social care
Of the little money that goes to social care it is then divided into two different pots, one to change the payer from the patient to the govt, and the other to increase funding to councils.
The first pot does not improve the level of care offered at all. The second pot would but is way too small to even meet the gap between current pay and likely pay needed to attract staff in the mid 2020s even before we look to deal with increasing demand and staffing requirements from living longer and changing demographics.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Where are the atmosphere things in that equation?
ρ = air density
I have a long neglected copy of Paterson's 'Fluid Dynamics' on the shelf. I might brush up.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Where are the atmosphere things in that equation?
ρ = air density
I have a long neglected copy of Paterson's 'Fluid Dynamics' on the shelf. I might brush up.
I bet you don't!
He could read it over a long, large dinner of chops with all the trimmings. Plenty of time in which case.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Lol. The bike is newer than that. I suspect they were spares the bike shop had lying around when they built it.
She refused flappy paddles as she is a stick-in-the-mud (appropriate, since I think it was cyclocross types that were the last to give them up). Easier to repair in the middle of nowhere though.
Really reduce the part count.
I think it might be better to throw away the bike and walk...
I do wonder about some of those things. How did they find a smooth enough road to run them on? You certainly wouldn't now, you'd smash the wheels on the first pothole (helpfully marked with yellow paint, but not actually repaired).
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
Di2. AXS is a good product but the single battery architecture of Di2 is superior IMO.
I've just ordered 2 x full groupsets of the new 12 speed DA R9200 Di2 disc. Great excitement!
I'm sorry I mentioned I was going cycling as I haven't a clue what you lot are on about. I tend to stop at l have a bike (well 2 actually, I do also have an off road bike which in its day apparently was quite good, but beyond my ability to exploit). Tourer is quite basic.
When I first got my tourer (it is actually a town bike converted, including butterfly handlebars just to make other cyclist crash while staring) I read that I should buy a steel bike and not an aluminum bike so that it can be welded if you break the frame.
If I break the frame I am getting on a train, so aluminum it was. Goodness what happens these days with carbon fibre.
Not to rule things out without due consideration but this has an air of taking the piss.
If they’re escaping persecution, they will be happy to be given an opportunity of a new life in a safe country.
If they’re primarily economic migrants, desparate specifically to get to the UK, on the other hand…
Yes. This proposal is imo mainly about expressing the following 2 sentiments: Most asylum seekers are on the make rather than fleeing persecution. They should be grateful for anything they get, aka 'beggars can't be choosers'.
Being an economic migrant doesn't mean "on the make" though does it. It just means that you want to live where you choose without regard for the entry laws of the country that you want to move to.
If you are happy to accept, say, 1000 migrants now (I assume you are) then what about the next 1000 and what about the 1000 after that. Logically, there must be a limit to your position surely (small island and all that). And if logically you do have a limit then at that point you must be in favour of applying the laws and our boundary defences to ensure that "your" limit is not breached?
And if that is the case why not do that now?
It means seeking a better life and most come legally under our Immigration system (which we have to have since the nirvana of global open borders is a long way off). Then you have the people - also seeking a better life - who are in addition fleeing something, ie the push factor is bigger than the pull. Asylum seekers, refugees, ad hoc (rather than formalized) economic migrants, with these categories overlapping and muddy in reality as opposed to what the boxes on forms say. I think we should take more of these people than we do, and so should other rich countries, which needs a degree of co-operation that seems lacking for one reason or another.
When we can ask the following and get sensible answers, then we can have a proper national conversation on immigration...
- What is the intended population of the county 10, 20, 30, 50 years into the future? - What is the plan for matching the housing and other infrastructure to that population? - What is the difference between the intended population (and in what demographics/skills) and the population that will be present in the country already.
This makes sense but it's a Not Happening Event in a country like ours. We don't do plans beyond electoral timeframes. TBF, it's probably a necessary price of democracy.
As a general point I'm never quite sure what a "proper national conversation" looks and feels like, outside of elections and referendums.
The standard answer is we can't plan that. But apparently we have plans for the NHS for 20 years. Plans for house building. Plans for road building.....
As to "proper national conversation".... Something beyond -
"You smell!!" "You smell worse!"
etc etc...
DO we have serious robust plans like that going out 20 years? That's a revelation to me.
Concrete plans - no. Projections and plans, yes.
TfL, for example, has robust plans for the next few years and a series of plans, based on various projections of usage, going out to 20 years.
The NHS has plans for various bits of itself that look a decade ahead, similarly.
It's not all made up on the day.
This is the reason that the permanent portion of government (civil servants etc) has its own views and policies. Because this is a chunk of what they are doing.
It's a tricky one. Being purely rational it makes sense to take a lot of things outside party politics. Eg I bet China could teach us a thing or two about long term planning. But there's a downside with that.
Ah, the olde-but-golde "Take the politics out of X"
i.e. "Give us the money, and have no say on how we spend it"
Runs into the small problem that spending public money is politics. By definition. And the wretched Head Count think they should have a say in politics....
Yes that's the downside I was thinking of. Fact is, you have to involve the public in order to guard against tyranny. But involving the public ensures inefficiency, mendacity, and short-termism. So here we are.
Not to rule things out without due consideration but this has an air of taking the piss.
If they’re escaping persecution, they will be happy to be given an opportunity of a new life in a safe country.
If they’re primarily economic migrants, desparate specifically to get to the UK, on the other hand…
Yes. This proposal is imo mainly about expressing the following 2 sentiments: Most asylum seekers are on the make rather than fleeing persecution. They should be grateful for anything they get, aka 'beggars can't be choosers'.
Being an economic migrant doesn't mean "on the make" though does it. It just means that you want to live where you choose without regard for the entry laws of the country that you want to move to.
If you are happy to accept, say, 1000 migrants now (I assume you are) then what about the next 1000 and what about the 1000 after that. Logically, there must be a limit to your position surely (small island and all that). And if logically you do have a limit then at that point you must be in favour of applying the laws and our boundary defences to ensure that "your" limit is not breached?
And if that is the case why not do that now?
It means seeking a better life and most come legally under our Immigration system (which we have to have since the nirvana of global open borders is a long way off). Then you have the people - also seeking a better life - who are in addition fleeing something, ie the push factor is bigger than the pull. Asylum seekers, refugees, ad hoc (rather than formalized) economic migrants, with these categories overlapping and muddy in reality as opposed to what the boxes on forms say. I think we should take more of these people than we do, and so should other rich countries, which needs a degree of co-operation that seems lacking for one reason or another.
When we can ask the following and get sensible answers, then we can have a proper national conversation on immigration...
- What is the intended population of the county 10, 20, 30, 50 years into the future? - What is the plan for matching the housing and other infrastructure to that population? - What is the difference between the intended population (and in what demographics/skills) and the population that will be present in the country already.
This makes sense but it's a Not Happening Event in a country like ours. We don't do plans beyond electoral timeframes. TBF, it's probably a necessary price of democracy.
As a general point I'm never quite sure what a "proper national conversation" looks and feels like, outside of elections and referendums.
The standard answer is we can't plan that. But apparently we have plans for the NHS for 20 years. Plans for house building. Plans for road building.....
As to "proper national conversation".... Something beyond -
"You smell!!" "You smell worse!"
etc etc...
DO we have serious robust plans like that going out 20 years? That's a revelation to me.
Concrete plans - no. Projections and plans, yes.
TfL, for example, has robust plans for the next few years and a series of plans, based on various projections of usage, going out to 20 years.
The NHS has plans for various bits of itself that look a decade ahead, similarly.
It's not all made up on the day.
This is the reason that the permanent portion of government (civil servants etc) has its own views and policies. Because this is a chunk of what they are doing.
It's a tricky one. Being purely rational it makes sense to take a lot of things outside party politics. Eg I bet China could teach us a thing or two about long term planning. But there's a downside with that.
Ah, the olde-but-golde "Take the politics out of X"
i.e. "Give us the money, and have no say on how we spend it"
Runs into the small problem that spending public money is politics. By definition. And the wretched Head Count think they should have a say in politics....
Yes that's the downside I was thinking of. Fact is, you have to involve the public in order to guard against tyranny. But involving the public ensures inefficiency, mendacity, and short-termism. So here we are.
And believing that autocracies do better is a perennial mistake.
The trains didn't run on time.... It was just lied about....
Did you know that the famous spike in rare earth prices*, caused by Chinese export cuts, was actually down to the fact that in the monkeys-in-a-salad-bar style carve up of the Chinese state... a complete buffoon got the rare earth production?
*Alleged by some to be a master stroke of the Chinese taking control of Ze! Whole! Vurld! Ha! ha!
Looks like we're back to the old "worst system apart from the alternative" chestnut. Which of course I wouldn't argue with. For all my frustrations with a system that allows a bloke like Boris Johnson to achieve power, I wouldn't trade it for totalitarianism. If he wins another landslide next time, however, I might have to revisit that.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
Are you a di2 or Axs person? Or are you sticking with mechanical?
So, I googled those. Cost more than the last bike I bought (in ~2007 to be fair, as a broke postgrad and I did subsequently replace the wheels, tyres, chainset, cassette, cables, pedals, derailleurs and shifters, but it's still the same bike, for sure!).
That's the logic that @HYUFD applies to his continued support for the Conservative Party.
The difference is that the changes I made improved the bike
Ministers are having second thoughts on plans to introduce mandatory Covid passports for nightclubs and other “high-risk” venues after Tory MPs tore into the proposals in the Commons.
Serious doubts have emerged over the policy, with officials now looking at whether case rates will require such measures.
A Whitehall source said “no decisions have been made yet” on the proposals, despite the Government insisting that the passes will be mandatory from the end of the month.
Perhaps the shambles north of the border - "vote for it today, details to follow, (like "what a nightclub is")"......will help them think again....
If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?
“ If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?”.
Is there actually an answer to that one?
Vaccinated people are (a) less likely to get any kind of infection, (b) usually show less viral shedding if they do get it, and (c) shed for less time.
Your chance of getting infected by a vaccinated person is probably less than one tenth of that of getting it from an unvaccinated one.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Where are the atmosphere things in that equation?
ρ = air density
I have a long neglected copy of Paterson's 'Fluid Dynamics' on the shelf. I might brush up.
I bet you don't!
He could read it over a long, large dinner of chops with all the trimmings. Plenty of time in which case.
On a Thursday? I don't have Omnium down as a glutton. It'll be something suitably austere.
A social care levy that doesn't even fund social care
Of the little money that goes to social care it is then divided into two different pots, one to change the payer from the patient to the govt, and the other to increase funding to councils.
The first pot does not improve the level of care offered at all. The second pot would but is way too small to even meet the gap between current pay and likely pay needed to attract staff in the mid 2020s even before we look to deal with increasing demand and staffing requirements from living longer and changing demographics.
That Guardian article talks of a new health and social care levy bill to passed on Tuesday next week.
Where is this Bill? I can find no published version, only yesterday's Bill for the NI bits of all this.
Barnier’s Brexitifcation continues. This time he wants to take back control of France’s ‘legal sovereignty’ from the European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights - two things he was so keen to keep Britain tied to.
If they are going for Zero Covid forever then they are going for zero tourism industry forever. Completely cutting themselves off from the outside world. I'm sure it sounds good to people now, how about in 3 years time?
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Where are the atmosphere things in that equation?
ρ = air density
I have a long neglected copy of Paterson's 'Fluid Dynamics' on the shelf. I might brush up.
I bet you don't!
He could read it over a long, large dinner of chops with all the trimmings. Plenty of time in which case.
On a Thursday? I don't have Omnium down as a glutton. It'll be something suitably austere.
Barnier’s Brexitifcation continues. This time he wants to take back control of France’s ‘legal sovereignty’ from the European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights - two things he was so keen to keep Britain tied to.
He couldn't have kept Britain in the ECHR (even if he'd cared to), as that's nothing to do with the EU.
I do believe that early drafts of the withdrawal agreement included bits about the UK having to stay under the ECHR and then they tried to jam it into the TCA after that gambit failed.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I wonder where on the continuum between a race bike and a mountain bike the ideal bike for such a challenge would be... How good are the byways?
There's an entire new genre called gravel bikes which sound about right. Thinking of getting one but you can't get a bike for love or money these days you get waitlisted to 2023.
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
Indeed, all of those independent SAGE people keeping their fingers crossed for more hospitalisations and deaths so they could stick it to the government on channel 4 news must be raging right now.
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
Indeed, all of those independent SAGE people keeping their fingers crossed for more hospitalisations and deaths so they could stick it to the government on channel 4 news must be raging right now.
And to add, testing this week is c. 20% higher than last week, so getting a case fall from that implies pretty strongly that the falling case trend from before school testing surge has continued unabated underneath all the noise. Hospitals still stead as a rock too. There really isn't the beginnings of a basis for introducing new restrictions or controls on people.
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
Indeed, all of those independent SAGE people keeping their fingers crossed for more hospitalisations and deaths so they could stick it to the government on channel 4 news must be raging right now.
They are jumping on the new PHE report and demanding kids get vaxxed now this afternoon.
That Scotland should now be careening towards an economic train wreck has many authors. But one above all stands out, for imbuing the country with a heady, and electorally powerful mixture of Anglo-hatred, romanticism and boundless faith in European Union membership.
The mixture was concocted over 40 years ago by the Scots writer and academic Tom Nairn, who will be 90 next year. He can reflect that his writings — especially The Break Up of Britain (1977) and to a lesser extent After Britain (2000) — provided Scottish nationalism, the most potent of European secessionist movements, with a framework within which secession could be seen as essential for Scots’ self-respect. Though a Marxist, his is not primarily a programme for a more equitable economy, or a march through the institutions to craft a political system dominated by the working classes. It is most powerfully a textbook for despising England.
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
Indeed, all of those independent SAGE people keeping their fingers crossed for more hospitalisations and deaths so they could stick it to the government on channel 4 news must be raging right now.
And to add, testing this week is c. 20% higher than last week, so getting a case fall from that implies pretty strongly that the falling case trend from before school testing surge has continued unabated underneath all the noise. Hospitals still stead as a rock too. There really isn't the beginnings of a basis for introducing new restrictions or controls on people.
I doubt that's going to stop them from proposing them, though.
There's a fairly reasonable chance that we've actually hit the herd immunity threshold with our current level of vaccination and acquired immunity. I wouldn't be surprised to see that measure at something like 80-85% of the population at this stage.
I see the school testing spike is petering out already. Must be gutting for all the usual suspects trying to pre-programme in new restrictions on the basis of imaginary case surges.
Indeed, all of those independent SAGE people keeping their fingers crossed for more hospitalisations and deaths so they could stick it to the government on channel 4 news must be raging right now.
They are jumping on the new PHE report and demanding kids get vaxxed now this afternoon.
Is that the report which shows vaccines are great at preventing death, but over the age of 40 somehow or other you're now more likely to appear in the case stats if you've been vaccinated than not (before someone jumps down my throat, that's based on rates adjusted for population size, not absolute numbers).
I'm off cycling France for a week this weekend so you will all be pleased to know I (probably) won't be challenging HYUFD's unique application of the use of statistics, numbers and logic for a bit.
Stop cheering at the back.
Cycling for Softies? I did one of those in the Loire - absolutely fantastic although I do remember at one stage tearing* along what must be the equivalent of their A1(M) in torrential rain to get to my next stop.
Whereas if you pootle along with your triple (and a few tripels) at 110W you do about 25km/h.
That's a lot of effort just to push wind...
drag force = 1/2ρv^2CdA
So you need 4x the power to double the speed. Ignoring rolling resistance and drivetrain losses (about 3% if you are using a non junk groupset like DURA ACE).
Yes, exactly. Of course, if you are in a race, make as much effort as you like.
Pootling about, it makes much more sense to trundle along on the flat and attack the hills, as that's where power makes the biggest time difference. OK, there's actually no hills here, but I'm sure that's not relevant...
My wife's DURA-ACE downtube shifter must be the reason she goes faster than me on the flat.
Get her a new bike. DA hasn't had downtube shifters since 7900 in 2008.
I'm always amused by the way any hobby - however simple - soon generates its own insider language. I ride a bike. I usually pootle around the village on it, but sometimes go for 20-30 miles if I get a chance.
It is a bike. It has two wheels. And urrm, 18 gears, I think. And a front suspension thingymajig. One disc brake, one calliper. And a pannier.
That's about all I know about it.
I went round Richmond Park the other day. Apparently taking a mountain bike there is complete Not Done, according to the lycra clad types.....
Mind you, I cycled home, past the car park where they were dismantling their bikes to put in the back of 4x4s....
On my Sunday morning run, I passed a farm being set up for an event. A few cyclists were turning up. It turned out it was the Cornfields - a 100km ride around the lanes and byways of Cambridgeshire. I'm tempted to train for it next year - although it would be about the longest ride I've ever done. And I might need a better bike ...
Barnier’s Brexitifcation continues. This time he wants to take back control of France’s ‘legal sovereignty’ from the European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights - two things he was so keen to keep Britain tied to.
He couldn't have kept Britain in the ECHR (even if he'd cared to), as that's nothing to do with the EU.
I do believe that early drafts of the withdrawal agreement included bits about the UK having to stay under the ECHR and then they tried to jam it into the TCA after that gambit failed.
Really?
I mean I don't see how that would work, because the ECHR has nothing to do with UK-EU relations. Even if we'd agreed we were still in the ECHR when we Brexited, it wouldn't be possible to require us to remain in the ECHR.
Barnier’s Brexitifcation continues. This time he wants to take back control of France’s ‘legal sovereignty’ from the European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights - two things he was so keen to keep Britain tied to.
He couldn't have kept Britain in the ECHR (even if he'd cared to), as that's nothing to do with the EU.
I do believe that early drafts of the withdrawal agreement included bits about the UK having to stay under the ECHR and then they tried to jam it into the TCA after that gambit failed.
Really?
I mean I don't see how that would work, because the ECHR has nothing to do with UK-EU relations. Even if we'd agreed we were still in the ECHR when we Brexited, it wouldn't be possible to require us to remain in the ECHR.
There's nothing to stop a treaty between two parties making membership of the ECHR a condition. The Good Friday Agreement does that.
An interesting set of local by-elections today - 3 in Derbyshire and 3 in the North East. Labour defend in N.E Derbyshire and North Tyneside, Con defend in N.E. Derbyshire and South Derbyshire, and LD defend in Newcastle. In South Tyneside there is an incredible contest - for details see Andrew Teale's preview
A social care levy that doesn't even fund social care
Of the little money that goes to social care it is then divided into two different pots, one to change the payer from the patient to the govt, and the other to increase funding to councils.
The first pot does not improve the level of care offered at all. The second pot would but is way too small to even meet the gap between current pay and likely pay needed to attract staff in the mid 2020s even before we look to deal with increasing demand and staffing requirements from living longer and changing demographics.
There's also the question of what happens to the price per person paid for by the council, versus self-funded individuals (who currently pay around 40% more).
Thanks and fairly OK. At first didn't think it was COVID because I don't have a headache or sneezing which appear to be the prominent symptoms of the bug for the double vaxxed. Have high temperature and lost sense of smell (but not yet taste) this morning. Anyway, took the test yesterday evening and the results late a few hours ago. Trust that the vaccines will do their job!
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
The basis of population-wide testing is the availability of a high testing capacity in a country or region. During the webinar, the presenting countries reported the following daily national testing capacities: Luxembourg’s maximum testing was 1 800 tests/100 000 population (11 000 tests/day), UK 250 tests/100 000 population (165 750 tests/day), Singapore 700 tests/100 000 population (40 000 tests/day), Denmark 280 tests/100 000 population (16 300 tests/day), Germany conducts approximately 99 tests/100 000 population (82 000 tests/day), Republic of Korea carries out 39 tests/100 000 population (20 000 tests/day).
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliamsMEN End of an era: Exclusive - Sir Richard Leese to stand down as town hall leader after 25 years
I could do a very very long thread about this or leave it for the post-match interview, so just a couple of things...this is a very big deal for politics here and for the north more widely.
The basis of population-wide testing is the availability of a high testing capacity in a country or region. During the webinar, the presenting countries reported the following daily national testing capacities: Luxembourg’s maximum testing was 1 800 tests/100 000 population (11 000 tests/day), UK 250 tests/100 000 population (165 750 tests/day), Singapore 700 tests/100 000 population (40 000 tests/day), Denmark 280 tests/100 000 population (16 300 tests/day), Germany conducts approximately 99 tests/100 000 population (82 000 tests/day), Republic of Korea carries out 39 tests/100 000 population (20 000 tests/day).
A social care levy that doesn't even fund social care
Of the little money that goes to social care it is then divided into two different pots, one to change the payer from the patient to the govt, and the other to increase funding to councils.
The first pot does not improve the level of care offered at all. The second pot would but is way too small to even meet the gap between current pay and likely pay needed to attract staff in the mid 2020s even before we look to deal with increasing demand and staffing requirements from living longer and changing demographics.
That Guardian article talks of a new health and social care levy bill to passed on Tuesday next week.
Where is this Bill? I can find no published version, only yesterday's Bill for the NI bits of all this.
It's probably in the same place as the Social Care White Paper referred to by BJ and Javid on Tuesday. Yet to be written.
Barnier’s Brexitifcation continues. This time he wants to take back control of France’s ‘legal sovereignty’ from the European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights - two things he was so keen to keep Britain tied to.
He couldn't have kept Britain in the ECHR (even if he'd cared to), as that's nothing to do with the EU.
I do believe that early drafts of the withdrawal agreement included bits about the UK having to stay under the ECHR and then they tried to jam it into the TCA after that gambit failed.
Really?
I mean I don't see how that would work, because the ECHR has nothing to do with UK-EU relations. Even if we'd agreed we were still in the ECHR when we Brexited, it wouldn't be possible to require us to remain in the ECHR.
There's nothing to stop a treaty between two parties making membership of the ECHR a condition. The Good Friday Agreement does that.
There are two treaties though - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Free Trade Agreement.
I mean I read the drafts, and don't remember seeing the ECHR in there. It's possible I missed it, but it seems an odd thing to put in there.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
There's more friction at the 12 o clock kill yourself position though from the tight clearance between the cartridge and the hammer nose bushing/extractor. Might try it with my .22 S&W Model 617.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
Depends. Don't you pull the trigger while the cylinder is spinning, in which case that makes no difference? If you let it come to rest the game gets even more gruesome than you might think, because you already know the outcome as you raise the gun. Unless you look away, I suppose.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
Define "far more likely" in this case...
Having done some research (I googled), it does not appear to make as much of a difference as I would like.
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
There's more friction at the 12 o clock kill yourself position though from the tight clearance between the cartridge and the hammer nose bushing/extractor. Might try it with my .22 S&W Model 617.
Ministers are having second thoughts on plans to introduce mandatory Covid passports for nightclubs and other “high-risk” venues after Tory MPs tore into the proposals in the Commons.
Serious doubts have emerged over the policy, with officials now looking at whether case rates will require such measures.
A Whitehall source said “no decisions have been made yet” on the proposals, despite the Government insisting that the passes will be mandatory from the end of the month.
Perhaps the shambles north of the border - "vote for it today, details to follow, (like "what a nightclub is")"......will help them think again....
If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, what's the point of "vaccine passports"?
Bit in Bold: That's like saying "if driving at 20 can still cause fatal accidents, what's the point of "speed limits?"".
The risk is much lower post vaccination. I oppose vaccine passports on principle, but lets not pretend they're not practical or would not work in reducing risk.
The question that needs answering is if that risk is worth sacrificing for. To me, no.
In the context of over 80% double jabbed and another 9% single jabbed, at what point do you conclude "it wouldn't be worth the effort"?
If they're introduced then once we reach 100% or get through the winter flu season without requiring another lockdown.
My order of preference is:
Full liberty for everyone > Full liberty for vaccinated, lockdown antivaxxers > lockdown everyone
So you will give the police the right to demand proof of vaccination. Interesting
No I would not. As I said I would have full liberty for everyone.
However if there are to be lockdown restrictions they 100% should be applied to the unvaccinated first before applying to everyone. I'd prefer zero restrictions, but the unvaccinated can own the consequences of their decisions if restrictions are applied.
How do you differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated?
Spain has said only the severely immuno suppressed will be given 3rd jabs at this stage. Still too little evidence of the need for the general population to given boosters.
As a politician, who would take the risk?
Precautionary Principle surely says offer the booster and re-evaluate next year after the winter.
If you draw a table of possible options, prisoners dilemma style, then the worst case scenario is clearly that boosters are needed but not offered. So avoid that scenario.
Its a bit like having unprotected sex on a one night stand....probably be ok....but if it isn't, the downsides could be enormous and life changing.
I am trying to remember a really good term somebody used on a podcast for a situation where the upside might only be small / non-existent of not taking a course of action, the downside is potentially enormous.
Russian roulette for $10 stakes ?
Interestingly, Russian Roulette is nowhere near as dangerous as it looks. You see the chamber with the bullet in is the heaviest, and therefore it is far more likely that it will come to rest at the bottom (or next to bottom) than in the top chamber.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
There's more friction at the 12 o clock kill yourself position though from the tight clearance between the cartridge and the hammer nose bushing/extractor. Might try it with my .22 S&W Model 617.
If you want to really spook everybody make that your last post for a while.
Comments
So if we'd just done exactly the same thing 2-3 months earlier, we would have had cases rocketing up in April, when most of the vulnerable were vaccinated.
You'd probably need a month or two of extra lockdown to really crush the second wave.
But what a benefit. Boris would be able to crow about one of the lowest death rates in Europe.
He'd be throwing out all kinds of sporting metaphors about how it's the second half that really matters.
Really reduce the part count.
A social care levy that doesn't even fund social care
Even reading that article, I am unclear as to Jacinda's exit strategy. Is she saying that they will maintain the Damocles Sword on lockdown even after they open their borders? It's beyond delusional if so.
The science, it’s says yes do it!
We need some sort of passport for large indoor gatherings then, and it would help with large outdoor gatherings too like framed into football stadiums. Going onto a crammed football terrace shouldn’t be classed as an outdoor event.
Follow the science.
I've just ordered 2 x full groupsets of the new 12 speed DA R9200 Di2 disc. Great excitement!
https://beastwaymtb.wordpress.com/cornfieldshopfields/
Crikey the latter two graphs particularly rather tell their own story, don't they?
The only rational lockdown strategy (if any!) based on that is risk segmentation by vax status. There is simply no justification whatsoever for universal lockdowns anymore.
Quite incredible to see that data in chart form.
Thanks for posting.
A tutorial video on this approach can be seen here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ojK9Q_ARE
But it may be beyond my massively heavy Apollo (don't laugh, DuraAce...). I bought it for approach work in the hills (hence the panniers), and I never used it for that...
https://twitter.com/vp20191/status/1435956069201760259
I bought my son a 20-inch bike (that's the wheel diameter, apparently) from Halfords, and he loves it. We've managed nine miles together. A friend of his the same age had a racer bought for him by his grandparents, and it weighs a tiny amount in comparison. But he can't go offroad with it, and that's a really good option around here for kids who aren't fully road-savvy.
In one, Ms Godley brands former X Factor judge Kelly Rowland “the black horse from USA”
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1435957695052451843?s=20
I suppose in her defence she may have muddled "black horse" with "dark horse" (unknown quantity), but either way it was at the very best a spectacularly mis-judged remark about an African American.
The first pot does not improve the level of care offered at all. The second pot would but is way too small to even meet the gap between current pay and likely pay needed to attract staff in the mid 2020s even before we look to deal with increasing demand and staffing requirements from living longer and changing demographics.
He'll Remain with the Tories no matter what principles they have. Or don't have.
I do wonder about some of those things. How did they find a smooth enough road to run them on? You certainly wouldn't now, you'd smash the wheels on the first pothole (helpfully marked with yellow paint, but not actually repaired).
If I break the frame I am getting on a train, so aluminum it was. Goodness what happens these days with carbon fibre.
Your chance of getting infected by a vaccinated person is probably less than one tenth of that of getting it from an unvaccinated one.
Still, $10 sounds a little skinny.
Where is this Bill? I can find no published version, only yesterday's Bill for the NI bits of all this.
The mixture was concocted over 40 years ago by the Scots writer and academic Tom Nairn, who will be 90 next year. He can reflect that his writings — especially The Break Up of Britain (1977) and to a lesser extent After Britain (2000) — provided Scottish nationalism, the most potent of European secessionist movements, with a framework within which secession could be seen as essential for Scots’ self-respect. Though a Marxist, his is not primarily a programme for a more equitable economy, or a march through the institutions to craft a political system dominated by the working classes. It is most powerfully a textbook for despising England.
https://unherd.com/2021/09/what-the-snp-really-believes/
There's a fairly reasonable chance that we've actually hit the herd immunity threshold with our current level of vaccination and acquired immunity. I wouldn't be surprised to see that measure at something like 80-85% of the population at this stage.
I mean I don't see how that would work, because the ECHR has nothing to do with UK-EU relations. Even if we'd agreed we were still in the ECHR when we Brexited, it wouldn't be possible to require us to remain in the ECHR.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1435982861543280640?s=20
The basis of population-wide testing is the availability of a high testing capacity in a country or region. During the webinar, the presenting countries reported the following daily national testing capacities:
Luxembourg’s maximum testing was 1 800 tests/100 000 population (11 000 tests/day),
UK 250 tests/100 000 population (165 750 tests/day),
Singapore 700 tests/100 000 population (40 000 tests/day),
Denmark 280 tests/100 000 population (16 300 tests/day),
Germany conducts approximately 99 tests/100 000 population (82 000 tests/day),
Republic of Korea carries out 39 tests/100 000 population (20 000 tests/day).
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-population-wide-testing-country-experiences.pdf
Given we conducted 1,254,874 tests on the 8th....
I wonder if they've misplaced a zero?
https://twitter.com/Republicains_An/status/1435901218283470853
@JenWilliamsMEN
End of an era: Exclusive - Sir Richard Leese to stand down as town hall leader after 25 years
I could do a very very long thread about this or leave it for the post-match interview, so just a couple of things...this is a very big deal for politics here and for the north more widely.
I mean I read the drafts, and don't remember seeing the ECHR in there. It's possible I missed it, but it seems an odd thing to put in there.