The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
The more the merrier.
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
The more the merrier.
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
This lockdown madness has to be over.
One day soon you will realise that a wave of 100-150k cases a day doesn’t just threaten the unvaccinated. Personally I don’t think a full lockdown will be necessary and we’ll be in a better spot than last winter. And with each season humans will gain a further leg up. But it’s wishful thinking to assume this is all over.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
The more the merrier.
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
This lockdown madness has to be over.
Slightly unfortunate expression in the context, unless one is of a certain bent:
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Sturgeon’s wokeys self identifying as having Covid?
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Sturgeon’s wokeys self identifying as having Covid?
Wouldn't have thought so. Not street credible enough. I mean, "I've got the pox" is not a chat up line of any plausibility, never mind whatever sex or gender is targeted ...
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
Because Scotland relaxed it’s restrictions and send the schools back at almost the same time. Because Scotland had, as some of the more partisan posters on here from north of the border oft pointed out, far fewer infections earlier in the pandemic. Because more than half of English 16-17 years olds were vaccinated by the time our term started. Loads of differences in circumstances.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
I agree re vacc, and Highlands and Islands. But Edinburgh in particular is a target tourist destination with the Arts Festival, and so is Weegieland to a lesser degree (and they interconnect so much anyway, PBTories notwithstanding).
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Sturgeon’s wokeys self identifying as having Covid?
Not that either. Testing is lower in Scotland despite the return to school.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
We’ll know in a couple of weeks if it is the return to school. If England and Wales don’t have the same spike in cases, then it may be something else.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Yesterday I was talking to someone who has not been vaccinated yet. I tried my best to convince him, but not sure I succeeded. He's in a job that involves meeting lots of people every day. So far he's been lucky and not been infected.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Ah come on Sean. You seem to be abroad most of the time anyway. Are you sure you haven't already done so?
A big difference when you know you have somewhere specific to go back to I imagine. Same reason a lot of people spent most of their time in their own homes, but enforcing that through lockdown was still an aggravating experience.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
We’ll know in a couple of weeks if it is the return to school. If England and Wales don’t have the same spike in cases, then it may be something else.
Scottish SARS…? Though presumably they’ve sequenced enough of the cases to know this or not by now
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
I agree re vacc, and Highlands and Islands. But Edinburgh in particular is a target tourist destination with the Arts Festival, and so is Weegieland to a lesser degree (and they interconnect so much anyway, PBTories notwithstanding).
Lanarkshire, Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde are far from being tourist hotspots, but they are all Covid hotspots.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Yesterday I was talking to someone who has not been vaccinated yet. I tried my best to convince him, but not sure I succeeded. He's in a job that involves meeting lots of people every day. So far he's been lucky and not been infected.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
We’ll know in a couple of weeks if it is the return to school. If England and Wales don’t have the same spike in cases, then it may be something else.
The upward kink in the trend link for England started before the schools went back.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
I agree re vacc, and Highlands and Islands. But Edinburgh in particular is a target tourist destination with the Arts Festival, and so is Weegieland to a lesser degree (and they interconnect so much anyway, PBTories notwithstanding).
Lanarkshire, Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde are far from being tourist hotspots, but they are all Covid hotspots.
Indeed, New Lanark and Dumbarton Castle notwithstanding. You'd need to assume that the pox had spread from Byres Road. Not sure it makes complete sense ...
Yesterday I was talking to someone who has not been vaccinated yet. I tried my best to convince him, but not sure I succeeded. He's in a job that involves meeting lots of people every day. So far he's been lucky and not been infected.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Could happen. Really don’t think it will, but it could.
Why not? Scotland has higher daily cases than at any time in the pandemic. Why would England be any different? The policies and demographics are as similar as you can get.
I am curious why case rates are so high in Scotland compared with England. A lot of it is due to earlier return to school, but not all. Case rate variations are driven by behaviour. Rates will be lower if people socially distance, regardless of whether they are required to by regulation. Yet Scotland is visibly more compliant than England in terms of mask wearing etc, as I saw during visit south last week
Holdays and tourism? I really can't think what else.
I don't think so, or not much, at the whole Scotland level. In the Highlands and other tourist destinations that had very low rates earlier, yes, but they are relatively under-populated. Also vaccination rates are slightly higher in Scotland. Maybe it's just natural variation and randomness.
We’ll know in a couple of weeks if it is the return to school. If England and Wales don’t have the same spike in cases, then it may be something else.
The upward kink in the trend link for England started before the schools went back.
You know there was increased testing last week ahead of the return? For instance new secondary starters were inducted into lateral flow tests. Saw it on the news last week. Plus the bh skews reporting.
Yesterday I was talking to someone who has not been vaccinated yet. I tried my best to convince him, but not sure I succeeded. He's in a job that involves meeting lots of people every day. So far he's been lucky and not been infected.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Are there any marginal Lab held seats where a reasonable amount of Lab to Green movement of voters could let the Tories sneak in?
There are five Con-Lab marginals held by Labour with majorities of less than 500 votes. The existing Green vote already exceeds the Labour majority in four of those. I imagine if you sat down and attempted any kind of analysis you could make the case for a substantially longer list than that.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Mny people here in Bedford seem not to bother wearing masks in shops. But I went to Currys the other day and a sign at the entrance said very nicely that one wasn't required required to mask up but that they would prefer that one did. And the shoppers largely did so.
Personal note: My partner is in a wheelchair but we get out and about most days doing many miles over the months---wearing out one chair so far She has many many friends and I have the new challenge that if I lower my guard for a second some of them might give her a big limpet-like hug or even a kiss. I think the idea of invisible little viruses a little too abstract for some of us.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
That's the charitable interpretation of why increasing NI polls better than increasing income tax.
The uncharitable interpretation is that some people (teacher stare) have clocked that they don't pay NI.
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
Sure, they cannot rule things out. But the report about being overwhelmed at current levels just seemed dumb.
Sorry, but it all depends on what is meant by overwhelmed. I don't think we will see anything like India in April, but what we will see is major interference with other NHS work, such as I am struggling with.
Bad day at work. I shall try to shut up, and make cheesy puns.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
The Government came close to losing the vote on the International Aid budget.
I wonder how many rebels could be found to vote against raising taxes against the manifesto, if the opposition parties all cynically oppose it.
Are there any marginal Lab held seats where a reasonable amount of Lab to Green movement of voters could let the Tories sneak in?
There are five Con-Lab marginals held by Labour with majorities of less than 500 votes. The existing Green vote already exceeds the Labour majority in four of those. I imagine if you sat down and attempted any kind of analysis you could make the case for a substantially longer list than that.
If Labour's front bench put in more dismal performances like Leicester Liz this morning then the list could be very long.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
Are there any marginal Lab held seats where a reasonable amount of Lab to Green movement of voters could let the Tories sneak in?
Bedford Warwick and Leamington Canterbury
The working theory is that a lot of the Lab-to-Green movement is disillusioned Corbynistas, isn't it? In which case, student-heavy constituencies like Canterbury are likely more at risk than Bedford.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
The more the merrier.
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
This lockdown madness has to be over.
Slightly unfortunate expression in the context, unless one is of a certain bent:
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
The more the merrier.
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
This lockdown madness has to be over.
Slightly unfortunate expression in the context, unless one is of a certain bent:
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
How are we squashing the sombrero though? Everything is open.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
All well and good but there’s got to be the risk they run it a bit too hot.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
How are we squashing the sombrero though? Everything is open.
By the effect of vaccination. I accept it’s not a perfect comparison. Last year it was to have been shielding vulnerable while letting healthy get Covid and recover. That fell apart when the numbers started to come in. Now we can let the infection spread through the mostly vaccinated population and pick up the unvaccinated (through choice or circumstance) on the way. So we are not using npi to do this, but we are getting that flattened curve. It’s right there in the case data.
Are there any marginal Lab held seats where a reasonable amount of Lab to Green movement of voters could let the Tories sneak in?
There are five Con-Lab marginals held by Labour with majorities of less than 500 votes. The existing Green vote already exceeds the Labour majority in four of those. I imagine if you sat down and attempted any kind of analysis you could make the case for a substantially longer list than that.
If Labour's front bench put in more dismal performances like Leicester Liz this morning then the list could be very long.
Vacuous doesn't begin to describe it.
I listened to the same interview as you on R4 this morning, and as you've been moaning about it all day (!) thought I'd respond. I really don't think Liz Kendall was as bad as you make out. Yes, she wasn't specific. But she made the important point that there was a risk that the government 'solution' was unlikely to be radical enough, as it was based on a narrow interpretation of social care - i.e. care for the elderly needing residential care. She knows her stuff, and was pointing out that care for all age groups was struggling financially, and sorting out elderly residential care was only part of the solution. I suspect she'll come up with a decent plan before the next GE, and those with the broadest (financial) shoulders will pay for the bulk of it. But we'll have to wait and see.
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
Sure, they cannot rule things out. But the report about being overwhelmed at current levels just seemed dumb.
Sorry, but it all depends on what is meant by overwhelmed. I don't think we will see anything like India in April, but what we will see is major interference with other NHS work, such as I am struggling with.
Bad day at work. I shall try to shut up, and make cheesy puns.
I don't think we disagree actually. It's the same problem with calling any level of restriction lockdown, it means you cannot distinguish between them. Overwhelmed conjures up something truly catastrophic, and a still bad situation will not seem as bad if mislabelled as overwhelmed. Severely impacted would make the point more effectively without being misleading. It's the same problem we get with the word crisis, since crises can vary a lot. But use the same word for the current situation as that reserved for worst case scenarios? It doesnt work, and gives an impression an actual worst case would not be that bad.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
It’s probably more than that - this is just based on positive tests.
Apparently Leicester schools went back two weeks before the rest of England.
How's the surge?
Leicester and Leicestershire schools went back on the 25th August, I think. Some have teacher days for the first day. For historical reasons, Schools here start earlier, and have different half terms sometimes, and finish earlier in July. Leicester is deserted in early July, as folk take advantage of "Leicester Fortnight" to get away on holiday before the rest of the country crowds places out. It used to be that the factories would close for maintenence, but now it is just tradition.
I have been on the Isle of Wight though for the last 2 weeks, so not really up to speed on what is happening in schools.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
How are we squashing the sombrero though? Everything is open.
At this point in the pandemic, having everything open, during the summer, is flattening the sombrero.
The summer and people being outside (and the schools being closed until this week) have all operated to suppress transmission but by everything being opened up at the same time, its ''flattened the sombrero'.
Better the cases now than in the winter. Had the cases not happened now, they'd happen in the winter instead, when people are indoors, schools are open and the NHS is busy with winter flu.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
All well and good but there’s got to be the risk they run it a bit too hot.
For sure, and perhaps why the ‘plans’ exist if it does.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
The Government came close to losing the vote on the International Aid budget.
I wonder how many rebels could be found to vote against raising taxes against the manifesto, if the opposition parties all cynically oppose it.
The Opposition is there to oppose of course - and there are alternative measures available which the Government might find that the Opposition would be happy to vote through. Like hiking CGT.
The problem they have is that anything the Opposition is likely to back would be a tax on rich old people, whereas NI isn't. That's the entire reason we're having these arguments.
Yesterday I was talking to someone who has not been vaccinated yet. I tried my best to convince him, but not sure I succeeded. He's in a job that involves meeting lots of people every day. So far he's been lucky and not been infected.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
To be honest, with Delta, I cannot see much making a difference. Closing schools, universities, nightclubs, sporting events etc may take it down a little, but I cannot see another January style lockdown happening.
FFP3 for me again at the footy on Saturday. I don't care if I am the only one there in a mask.
Closing schools looks to have been enough to slow/reduce delta in the Summer. Plus higher vaccination coverage now (although perhaps some waning immunity)...
On the other hand, covid likely to spread easier in Winter. So very hard to tell.
Still seems obvious that there should be mask wearing & better ventilation push for schools & workplaces.
I expect to win my bet with DavidL that there will be new restrictions in England this year.
Was it that shithouse synthetic opioid Leon was on about?
There's a spate of high profile US deaths due to heroin analogues being anomalously cut into cocaine. God knows how bad it is outside of the notables who can afford the 'pure' stuff.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
I wish I could be as sanguine as you about millions of people catching a particularly nasty disease. It may be inevitable, but you make it sound positively virtuous. The more people who catch it, the more will become seriously ill and die. Including some who are fully vaccinated. It's not something to wish for.
Was it that shithouse synthetic opioid Leon was on about?
There's a spate of high profile US deaths due to heroin analogues being anomalously cut into cocaine. God knows how bad it is outside of the notables who can afford the 'pure' stuff.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
I wish I could be as sanguine as you about millions of people catching a particularly nasty disease. It may be inevitable, but you make it sound positively virtuous. The more people who catch it, the more will become seriously ill and die. Including some who are fully vaccinated. It's not something to wish for.
I can understand why you feel this way. We didn’t ask Covid to happen, but we are stuck with it. I think what we are doing right now is the best way out from where we are. Clearly we could have done many things differently over the last 18 months, but right now I think we are on the right path. No consolation for any who suffer or die from this, but I have very little sympathy for those who chose not to get vaccinated when offered. Double vaccinated and still dying, while rare, will happen, and is a tragedy. But then so is the 10 who died on the roads today, and the hundreds or thousands who died of cancer. Sometimes you are dealt a shit hand, and have to play what you can.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
I wish I could be as sanguine as you about millions of people catching a particularly nasty disease. It may be inevitable, but you make it sound positively virtuous. The more people who catch it, the more will become seriously ill and die. Including some who are fully vaccinated. It's not something to wish for.
Immunity is coming one way or another.
If people are too thick or stupid to get the vaccine then the sooner they get infected the sooner we can put this all behind us.
Postponing the inevitable into the winter, when the NHS is more strained and we're indoors and going to be exposed to higher viral loads all the time and windows are more likely to be shut is completely counterproductive.
This romanianCanadian british lass can play a bit...won first set.
On her at 100s for the event. Big big star about to erupt, I think. Spoty possible also.
Good luck. I've had a small punt for this as well but I really can't see her troubling the SPotY judges until she wins Wimbledon. This may be a grand slam event but I doubt most people are watching. Now she has reached the quarter-finals, this may start to change but not enough.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Vaccination sure, but what of revaccination? So much time wasted.
I’m wary of the worry about this. So far vaccination is proving very good against serious illness and death, with little evidence of that changing. The immune system is a complex beast, and just looking at antibody levels is a small part of the picture. I’m more disappointed about not offering down to the 12 to 15 year olds about two months ago, so that they could be better placed now in school. I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
I know everyone hates anecdotes. But I know loads of people who’ve caught it twice symptomatically. By and large the second time they spotted the symptoms and took a home test and never bothered with the PCR that feeds the public data.
Yes friend mine double jabbed, has just about got over Covid from a couple of weeks back. With respect to your second infections, was the first confirmed? Lots of illnesses around last year were not Covid. My wife was ill in feb 2020 and expected it to have been Covid, but antibodies said no. Also how were the second infections? I’d assume mild.
The anti body test was a bit of a joke after a reasonable period of time wasn’t it?
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
Not sure I agree re the antibody test as she works at PHE and was tested there as part of official surveillance. Do you know if you reinfected friends were positively both times? No probs if you don’t know.
Brother in law for sure was, though second was lat flow. Colleagues wife was tested positive twice too, and was vaccinated. The key data point is how many second infections cause hospital. And that we don’t have data for.
Yep, we don’t but I really hope the data exists. Cheers
Brother in law (smoker, 30s) said he’s have been back at work on site within 2 days the second time were it not for the rules.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
I think you are spot on with this. I’ve come to believe that we are now squashing the sombrero as intended last year, with lots and lots of cases, yet hospitals at a ‘manageable’ level. The powers that be seem pretty relaxed about the case numbers. And when was the last Covid press conference? I think they are pretty ok with 30,000+ cases a day. It’s then 200,000 a week, 1,000,000 a month, many of whom are not vaccinated and gaining some immunity. Of course they won’t want to come out and say it, but that’s what is going on.
1 million a month isn't particularly high. Needs to be more until it burns out, but I suppose that more are going undetected so hopefully it is even higher than that and we're getting a lot of cases not being caught via tests on top of that.
I wish I could be as sanguine as you about millions of people catching a particularly nasty disease. It may be inevitable, but you make it sound positively virtuous. The more people who catch it, the more will become seriously ill and die. Including some who are fully vaccinated. It's not something to wish for.
Everyone in the country, vaccinated or not, is going to get it. 17m people have already had it and we're running at about 2m new infections per month. That may rise by 40-60% over the winter months. By April next year I'd guess at half of all people having had it. The people who got vaccinated before hand will get few to no symptoms, those few idiots who chose not to are much more likely to get severe symptoms or die. It's a shame but ultimately they've made their choice.
Was it that shithouse synthetic opioid Leon was on about?
There's a spate of high profile US deaths due to heroin analogues being anomalously cut into cocaine. God knows how bad it is outside of the notables who can afford the 'pure' stuff.
Apparently Leicester schools went back two weeks before the rest of England.
How's the surge?
Leicester and Leicestershire schools went back on the 25th August, I think. Some have teacher days for the first day. For historical reasons, Schools here start earlier, and have different half terms sometimes, and finish earlier in July. Leicester is deserted in early July, as folk take advantage of "Leicester Fortnight" to get away on holiday before the rest of the country crowds places out. It used to be that the factories would close for maintenence, but now it is just tradition.
I have been on the Isle of Wight though for the last 2 weeks, so not really up to speed on what is happening in schools.
General information: the gov.uk dashboard map tells us that, in the seven days to September 1st, cases reported went up by 6% in Leicestershire, and down by 10% in Leicester. However, given the Bank Holiday, I suppose that wouldn't have given the little plague spreaders much time to exchange diseases with each other. It'll be interesting to see what happens there once the figures have been updated for another week or so.
Was it that shithouse synthetic opioid Leon was on about?
There's a spate of high profile US deaths due to heroin analogues being anomalously cut into cocaine. God knows how bad it is outside of the notables who can afford the 'pure' stuff.
All the talk is its coming from Chinese labs. No idea either way but seems like its only going to get worse with equivalent wholesale prices and such significant potencies.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
That's the charitable interpretation of why increasing NI polls better than increasing income tax.
The uncharitable interpretation is that some people (teacher stare) have clocked that they don't pay NI.
The putative NI rise is also being sold as hypothecated to the NHS (and social care in brackets) which probably helps with the polling.
I'm not sure this will go ahead. The Sun quotes an unnamed "top minister" rather than a Number 10 or Treasury source.
Interesting that The Sun headline calls it a "tax hike", and only mentions NI later on. I think the government may struggle to sell this as a rise in NI contributions, which it would like to do, if the tabloids just call it a rise in tax. An increase in NI contributions sounds more benign than a tax increase.
That's the charitable interpretation of why increasing NI polls better than increasing income tax.
The uncharitable interpretation is that some people (teacher stare) have clocked that they don't pay NI.
The putative NI rise is also being sold as hypothecated to the NHS (and social care in brackets) which probably helps with the polling.
I'm not sure this will go ahead. The Sun quotes an unnamed "top minister" rather than a Number 10 or Treasury source.
Beth Rigby just saying that the PM is setting out a plan tomorrow followed by a new conference with the Chancellor.
Looks past the point of no return now.
The bastards. Screw Boris. Screw Rishi. Screw the Tories.
Comments
On both counts
They @UKLabour killed a million people in Iraq. Proportionately more in Afghanistan. But Roy Chubby Brown is a bridge way too far...
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1434904023530815488?s=12
Only 300/2300 tickets sold mind
Let it burn out before Christmas and if some antivaxxers get ill, they get ill.
This lockdown madness has to be over.
“The Wire’’ actor Michael K. Williams was found dead in his Brooklyn apartment Monday afternoon, law-enforcement sources told The Post.
Drug paraphernalia was found in the apartment, suggesting a possible overdose, sources said.
Williams, 54, was found dead in the living room of his Kent Avenue penthouse by his nephew, sources said.
The Flatbush native was famous for his role as Omar Little in the gritty TV series “The Wire’’ and as Chalky White in “Boardwalk Empire.’’
https://nypost.com/2021/09/06/actor-michael-k-williams-found-dead-in-nyc-apartment/
I think we have set our course now. People will take care, those at risk more so. I think eventually the Covid pressure will ease. Well over 90 % of adults now either vaccinated, recovered or both and a high prevalence suggests that the unvaxxed are going to get it soon. And recovery provides the best immunity - confirmed reinfection is still very low.
If she goes much further this will be the sports personality achievement of the year.
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Necrophilia/b0k2qpfyU8IC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=christie+"more+the+merrier"&pg=PA220&printsec=frontcover
Hopefully ...
* OK statistics; not OK for the statistics, if you see what I mean.
The smell / mustard teaspoon test seems to have been a reliable indicator of covid vs AN OTHER virus
RIP.
I tried watching White Lotus the other day, which is HBOs new big series....can we have back shows like the Wire and Boardwalk Empire instead please.
Failing that I'd go for Peaty. He's already a multiple gold medallist, and a good run on SCD would be a further huge profile boost for him.
Warwick and Leamington
Canterbury
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Mny people here in Bedford seem not to bother wearing masks in shops. But I went to Currys the other day and a sign at the entrance said very nicely that one wasn't required required to mask up but that they would prefer that one did. And the shoppers largely did so.
Personal note: My partner is in a wheelchair but we get out and about most days doing many miles over the months---wearing out one chair so far She has many many friends and I have the new challenge that if I lower my guard for a second some of them might give her a big limpet-like hug or even a kiss. I think the idea of invisible little viruses a little too abstract for some of us.
It’s a funny one right now. Seems to me the goal of the policy framework might be to guarantee as many cases as possible. I wish they would just admit that if it’s the case and that there’s a sound rationale why they’re doing it. Because the govt have been so inept since this started I have to assume it’s largely unintended.
Apparently Leicester schools went back two weeks before the rest of England.
How's the surge?
The uncharitable interpretation is that some people (teacher stare) have clocked that they don't pay NI.
Bad day at work. I shall try to shut up, and make cheesy puns.
I wonder how many rebels could be found to vote against raising taxes against the manifesto, if the opposition parties all cynically oppose it.
Vacuous doesn't begin to describe it.
U-turn incoming.
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/A_Dictionary_of_Proverbs/ogm0c8mYtQUC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq="the+more+the+merrier"&pg=PT292&printsec=frontcover
But the Brexit Party vote looks bad for EdM - I don’t think Lab should be odds on there should they? (I’m guessing they would be)
I have been on the Isle of Wight though for the last 2 weeks, so not really up to speed on what is happening in schools.
The summer and people being outside (and the schools being closed until this week) have all operated to suppress transmission but by everything being opened up at the same time, its ''flattened the sombrero'.
Better the cases now than in the winter. Had the cases not happened now, they'd happen in the winter instead, when people are indoors, schools are open and the NHS is busy with winter flu.
The problem they have is that anything the Opposition is likely to back would be a tax on rich old people, whereas NI isn't. That's the entire reason we're having these arguments.
On the other hand, covid likely to spread easier in Winter. So very hard to tell.
Still seems obvious that there should be mask wearing & better ventilation push for schools & workplaces.
I expect to win my bet with DavidL that there will be new restrictions in England this year.
https://www.tmz.com/2021/09/04/comedian-fuquan-johnson-dead-drug-overdose-kate-quigley/
Only micrograms of synthetic opiates i.e. Fentanyl and Carfentanil are required for a lethal overdose.
https://pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/news/unprecedented-rise-in-drug-overdoses-in-england-linked-with-synthetic-opioid
If people are too thick or stupid to get the vaccine then the sooner they get infected the sooner we can put this all behind us.
Postponing the inevitable into the winter, when the NHS is more strained and we're indoors and going to be exposed to higher viral loads all the time and windows are more likely to be shut is completely counterproductive.
The summer sun is fading as the year grows old
And darker days are drawing near
The winter winds will be much colder
Now you're not here.
Great golf ladies
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
MAIL: Fiver a week to fix care crisis #TomorrowsPapersToday
I'm not sure this will go ahead. The Sun quotes an unnamed "top minister" rather than a Number 10 or Treasury source.
Looks past the point of no return now.
The bastards. Screw Boris. Screw Rishi. Screw the Tories.