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He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute – politicalbetting.com
He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute – politicalbetting.com
CBI have warned that the current UK labour shortage could last up to two years. As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late Julyhttps://t.co/bQK0CPXlTH pic.twitter.com/R1klkWzkRN
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The polling is already reflecting that.
Lies. All lies !!!*
*according to the PB brain trust...
In Oregon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58414597
So I’m one of the 56%
So you're not the 56%.
"Andy Zaltzman
BBC Test Match Special statistician
Assuming India win it will be the first time they have won a match where they've been put into bat and dismissed for less than 200 in the first innings.
The last time England put their opponents in, bowled them out for less than 200, and let on to lose was the centenary Test in Australia in 1977."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/55023936
Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn
PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷♂️
Spot the plan
England needed to have kept that to ~ 300 or so.
'Worldwide there's all sorts curious employment market distortions, in Oregon they are hiring 14 year olds to work in McDonald's, but that's due to local issues, such as America having a higher level of Covid-19 denialism and lower vaccine acceptance, and it is inelegant to compare a nation with no minimum wage and very little employment protections but there is something viscerally different from having your Fillet O'Fish being served by a 14 year old than persistently finding shortages in supermarkets.'
Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.
German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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1h
The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
@MrTCHarris
Peak day this year for Scotland was 161 in January, currently it is at at 71 which is rapidly closing in on 50% peak level.
England ventilator peak was an eye watering 3736 (more than double Scotland's peak figure on a per capita basis), currently 909 (which is higher the Scotland's currently surging figure).
I've always contended that the unarguable "are we in the shit" figure is ventilator usage.
It probably requires £30bn a year to do things correctly which mean increasing NI by 20% not 1p.
Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
Because if you asked that any time of of any year then I could answer yes. There's always something sold out, depending upon what time of day you visit and what you're looking at. Try looking for sandwiches at 5pm on any normal day and see how many are available. 🤷♂️
But now people are deliberately going out looking for and talking about shortages for political reasons so its more noticeable when it happens.
Anyway, the market will find a solution. Its what it does. Goods that people really want, supermarkets will ensure are in stock. Goods people can live without, like bottled water, may not be a priority.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1434907618724753409
Anyway there's likely no need to invoke the Article as merely threatening to do so has had the same effect as actually doing so. The EU have almost completely backed down, so the threat is working as intended.
The Greens will come into government for the first time in 17 years and the CDU/CSU will head to opposition for the first time also in 17 years. The FDP meanwhile will join a government led by the SPD rather than the Union for the first time since 1982.
He had these options:
Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.
Or
Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.
I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.
So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.
But revisiting an issue to get a better solution later on isn't a bad thing. Indeed solving most issues now, then going back to sort out the rest later on, can very often be a successful management technique.
Its like the Pareto Principle on steroids.
1) Canadian elections
and/or
2) The German elections
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
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22s
Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):
Conservative 41% (–)
Labour 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 3% (–)
Changes +/- 29 Aug
He is hard to understand it
Check and mate.
What you need is a small number of people who work through an idea and deploy it before the blob slow it down to a crawl. A good example.Lib Dem in coalition with pensions, Steve Webb knew his onions.
Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
I'd argue that the best solution for the country would be a cross party agreement, but sadly low political cunning will almost certainly scupper that. As a country we need to decide who should pay for social care, and whether inheritance of your parents estate is a right, or something that is conditional on other factors. One thing that people in this country do stick to - a sense of fair play.
I was once very struck by the attitude of the grandparents of a friend. They had been frugal all their lives, scrimped, saved and paid their way. They were furious that others of their age had been spendthrift throughout and were now being supported by the state, because they couldn't support themselves. I think they would say if you have assets you should pay for you own care until you can no longer do so (with a cap set at a certain point).
None of this is easy. Most young people don't think they will ever get ill, or get old, or die. But they all will eventually. For the fortunate ones they will live long, healthy lives and then get taken swiftly at the end of a heart attack in their sleep. But we won't all be lucky. We have to do better as a society than 2 to 4 short visits a day where a carer has to chose between feeding someone or washing them, or other things.
I don't know the answer, but we have a duty to try harder.
A16 is a legitimate control that both parties can fire unilaterally. If the UK goes first, the EU is guaranteed to go second with countermeasures. A16 can only legitimately be used for technical issues with the implementation of the NIP. Given the UK doesn't want to implement the NIP anyway, A16 doesn't help its objective to get it changed.
There are some road haulage issues exacerbated by Brexit. Not solely caused by Brexit, but a consequence of the fact that (a) we're not part of the EEA road haulage network anymore, and (b) the DVLA has not been issuing new HGV licenses due to Covid. I suspect that a smaller version of this has happened elsewhere, but it's been a little worse for us. This will sort itself out over the next 18 months, as people enter the HGV driving market, attracted by higher wages.
It is possible that it has longer term consequences. We don't know whether firms considering investment decisions in Europe will take into account current logistical difficulties and prices. If they regard them as temporary, the effect will likely be minimal. If they are concerned they are longer lasting, then we may lose out on some opportunities. But we simply don't know yet, and this will only be a part of why firms make decisions.
It wasn't luck - > better judgment & not being ideologically driven to privatise, instead being open for the public sector to take on risk. Ultimately a very costly mistake not to keep equity in case of a large upside.
People are trying to get driving tests booked and can't find a slot before next May, in some cases.
As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
Then when repeatedly questioned did not have any idea or proposals to address it
There was a shortage of 60,000 HGV drivers the year before the Brexit (2019) and 50,000 in 2015.
25,000 fewer people passed their HGV test vs the year before.
In 2019 before Brexit there were 44,000 lorry drivers from the EU and now there are around 25,000.
So
19,000 from Brexit
25,000 from fewer tests passed
60,000 residual shortage
= 100,000 shortage.
But that 100,000 is not a robust number according to MoL. No one knows how many there are to determine there is a 100,000 shortage.
A few months ago the EU were threatening to invoke sanctions immediately if we extending the grace periods. We did - and they backed down. Now we're doing so again, and they've already backed down.
The threats have vanished because the reality is we hold all the power and they can't force us to implement what we don't want to do. The deal was better for us than they realised/worse for them than they thought it would be - and we hold all the cards.
So we can keep making speeches and do whatever we please. And they can keep fuming and doing nothing about it.
Eventually grown ups will take over, over there, and the Protocol will be renegotiated to something smarter - and Frost and Boris will have achieved their plan.
The result is the same, it's just needless delay and complication at this point.
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1434826489212641283
The entire nation got behind the national team this Summer so let’s put these figures in football terms:
You can fill 27 Wembley stadiums with the 2.5 million children that are struggling to know where their next meal might be coming from today…
https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1434910766172356609
Why were HGV driving tests suspended for so long? If Ubers were allowed throughout why couldnt we do an HGV test?
What plans were put in place to catch up on their resumption?
Why do we not allow temporary 1-2 year visas for HGV drivers?
Why do we not pay for free tuition for HGV drivers?
Simply saying it is due to covid is a complete abdication of govt responsibility and capability.
Your position on this, jettisoning NI because it is inconvenient to your English nationalist view of the world, renders your pronouncements as irrelevant as Wolfie Smith's Tooting Popular Front's wailings.
But if Boris couldn't negotiate a discount, how come he managed to get the atrociously awful backstop replaced with a NI-only Protocol that the EU can't even get the UK to implement against its will?
Seems like he's achieved a 98.5% discount to me. 97% by avoiding GB in the Protocol, and a further 50% because its only half-implemented in NI anyway.
But "we" is the collective will of the United Kingdom Parliament.
Its not just me that was prepared to jettison NI, to be sorted out later. It was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and over 500 MPs in the House of Commons who voted to ratify the deal too.
BTW the Tories led in the polls during the petrol delivery strike, but Labour won the subsequent election without much difficulty.
On another subject, that of there being no majority on the current state of Brexit (earlier discussion): the significant take away is this: a minority want to rejoin EU; but crucially the majority want to stay out. What sort of staying out we do is a matter for parliament and government, and every now and then, voters. There are no majorities for what sort of staying out we want. That's why we have elections, parliaments and politicians.
Once issues are linked it is unusual to get majorities. Eg, in Scotland there are four relevant positions on the constitution:
1) UK and Brexit
2) Independence and EU
3) UK and EU
4) Independence and stay out of EU.
I bet there is nothing close to 50% for any of them.
The history of BNOC/Britoil is instructive in this case but they were only one amongst very many.
Some days it comes with a foam.
Second of all, yes you are right. Parliament ratified a deal which clearly sets a path towards a United Ireland. But they say they didn't and that's the critical point. Boris can you believe it maintains that he doesn't want a united Ireland and is acting for the United Kingdom.
I know. Absurd.
They are often astonished when you ask them if their re-usable water bottles are off Amazon, and are lined with the finest toxic Chinese plastic. If not actually made out of it. To many, the idea of using an unlined stainless steel bottle is something they've never come across....
Higher prices, less choice and needless waste becoming the hallmarks of Brexit. Precisely the opposite of what was promised. ~AA
https://news.sky.com/story/m-s-warns-of-price-pressure-and-less-choice-after-brexit-import-rules-take-effect-12400723