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He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 6 in General
He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute – politicalbetting.com

CBI have warned that the current UK labour shortage could last up to two years. As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late Julyhttps://t.co/bQK0CPXlTH pic.twitter.com/R1klkWzkRN

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • "Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    edited September 6
    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    Yup - just like posting fake Covid figures.......
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    QED
  • The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    A majority of Leavers (53%) have also experienced shortages.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    A majority of Leavers (53%) have also experienced shortages.

    They blame anything but Brexit
  • The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    Brexit has made McDonald's start to hire 14 year olds.

    In Oregon.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58414597
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    Another measured thread header, I am pleasantly surprised
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 6
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,021
    O/T

    "Andy Zaltzman
    BBC Test Match Special statistician

    Assuming India win it will be the first time they have won a match where they've been put into bat and dismissed for less than 200 in the first innings.

    The last time England put their opponents in, bowled them out for less than 200, and let on to lose was the centenary Test in Australia in 1977."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/55023936
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    edited September 6
    FPT
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Entirely predictable move to kick the intra-Irish border fuckup into the grass again. We keep waiting for the EU to compromise the external EEA border. It doesn't.

    Is it not compromised at the moment?
    No more than usual. We are *aligned* to the EEA so allowing ever-decreasing volumes of stuff across with minimal checks is no threat.

    As we are pledged to not lower things like food standards we could have agreed an actual free trade deal. But no, we want to be a 3rd country and then complain about what that means in practice.
    We have agreed an actual free trade deal.

    I have no qualms with us being a third country. If they wish to impose checks at our countries border that's their choice, but they don't want to. That's their problem, they should solve it.
    It'd the kind of "free trade" that the right have campaigned against for decades - slow, costly, red-tape heavy. As for checks I don't think the EEA side are that bothered. If sales to the GB drop they have the rest of the market to sell to. It is our problem, not theirs.

    Anyway you should be pleased! The Lord Brexiteer is once again threatening to trigger A16 and blow up the deal. Which you have assured me is the point where it starts to work. So a solution is at hand is it not...
    Article 16 is part of the deal, so why do you think using it for the purpose for which it is intended would blow it up?
    Unlike UVDL unilaterally invoking Article 16 at night with zero notice, not even discussing it with Dublin first . . . Frost has been laying the groundwork for potentially invoking Article 16 for many months now.

    He said to Parliament, to the EU and in public repeatedly that the threshold for invocation is met but he wishes to try other solutions first. If the other solutions fail, there can be no objection to invocation happening. Its not like they haven't been warned that the threshold for invoking it had been met already.

    And when that happens - as it almost certainly will - the EU will respond by imposing trade sanctions of its choice on us. There are no wins here, Phil. Just further isolation for the UK.

    Since Article 16 is a legitimate part of the Treaty to be exercised, the EU are actually quite limited in what responses they can have within the confines of the Treaty.

    Unless they wish to break the Treaty, which A16 doesn't do.

    Responses to what is considered an unreasonable invocation are also a legitimate part of the Treaty.

    But its not unreasonable.

    Nobody is even arguing with Frost that the conditions to invoke it have been met. Are you denying that they have?

    The conditions to invoke it are quite explicit and they've quite clearly been met.

    The unreasonableness, or not, will ultimately be decided by the dispute resolution process if the parties do not agree. Invoking Article 16 also covers a multitude of actions - from the relatively minor to the nuclear. Let's see what happens. As I say, the idea that there are pain-free ways for Johnson and Frost to undo the mess they have created is for the fairies.

    Frost and Johnson didn't create the mess.

    May and Barnier created the mess by going arse about tit and choosing to "sort out" the Northern Ireland issue before the future of UK/EU trading relationship was sorted. Which was an impossibility that got us bogged down in a horrendous mess.

    Johnson and Frost sorted out 97% of the mess by sorting out the UK and EU's trading relationship first which is what should have happened all along.

    Now they're going back to sort out the final 3% as the last part of the negotiations. As they should have always been, instead of the first.

    No, Phil, Frost and Johnson signed up to a deal they did not understand or never meant to honour. They put a customs border in the Irish Sea. They told us it was a triumph. You are the only person in the world who still believes it was.

    It was a triumph.

    They got Brexit done dealing with GB which is 97% of the United Kingdom and 100% of the seats their MPs represent. They got done what May couldn't.

    As for not honouring the deal, they are honouring it in full. The deal literally had a get-out clause within it saying it didn't need to be applied in full if it created problems, and the problems were foreseeable, so it was entirely foreseeable the get-out clause could be invoked. Invoking a get-out clause you and the other party agreed in the negotiations is not failing to honour the deal.

    The Northern Irish tail should never have been allowed to wag the British dog. It isn't anymore, Johnson put paid to that nonsense and now proper negotiations can begin afresh as should have always happened in a logical order of events.
    If you truly believe this everybody (including "Boris") is laughing their socks off at you. But if you don't believe it, ie you're taking the piss, you (and of course "Boris") are laughing at us. I wonder which it is?
    I 100% hand on heart believe every word of it.

    Unless you come from a perspective that NI should be treated as equally as England in the negotiations (which I don't), how is any of what I said laughable?
    Ok, so if that's true it means the world is laughing at you. OTOH if it isn't true it means you're laughing at the world. I'm still wondering which it is. As all know I pride myself on being able to detect whether a PB poster is being sincere or is yanking the communal chain. Here, however, with you and this ridiculously rosy view of Johnson's Brexit shenanigans, I confess to some doubt. On balance I think you're telling the truth and do genuinely believe what you're saying, but it's a marginal assessment, wouldn't shock me one iota if I'm wrong. Intriguing situation we find ourselves in. Also slightly uncomfortable.
    No laughter. Indeed others have (perfectly reasonably) pointed out that its only my willingness to put England first before Northern Ireland that means I can take my view. But having done that, my view is entirely reasonable and no laughing matter.

    I don't see any shenanigans like you do. I see Britain having moved on from the quagmire of a mess that we'd found ourselves in under May's failed stewardship.

    Sure matters are worse for Northern Ireland right now. Sucks to be them. But its better for England and England > Northern Ireland.
    There is laughter but we don't know which way it's flowing, is where we are. You remember the PB Panel of Moderates which in order to ensure independence and objectivity neither you nor I are on? Well that is unanimous (10/0) that Johnson either (i) didn't understand the deal or (ii) did and always intended to renege on it. They are the only 2 possibilities within the boundaries of rational discussion, slapdash or bad faith, and the POM delivered a 5/5 split verdict. It would have been 5/6 in favour of bad faith, btw, if I'd have had a vote. I think old "Boris" legged the EU over.
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    Brexit has made McDonald's start to hire 14 year olds.

    In Oregon.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58414597
    There is no minimum wage for Under 18s in Oregon and 14 year olds can work there.

    Spot the plan
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,571
    edited September 6
    India's 466 sticks out like a sore thumb. Ali needs replacing next test, you can't have bowlers going for 4.5 an over.
    England needed to have kept that to ~ 300 or so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Entirely predictable move to kick the intra-Irish border fuckup into the grass again. We keep waiting for the EU to compromise the external EEA border. It doesn't.

    Is it not compromised at the moment?
    No more than usual. We are *aligned* to the EEA so allowing ever-decreasing volumes of stuff across with minimal checks is no threat.

    As we are pledged to not lower things like food standards we could have agreed an actual free trade deal. But no, we want to be a 3rd country and then complain about what that means in practice.
    We have agreed an actual free trade deal.

    I have no qualms with us being a third country. If they wish to impose checks at our countries border that's their choice, but they don't want to. That's their problem, they should solve it.
    It'd the kind of "free trade" that the right have campaigned against for decades - slow, costly, red-tape heavy. As for checks I don't think the EEA side are that bothered. If sales to the GB drop they have the rest of the market to sell to. It is our problem, not theirs.

    Anyway you should be pleased! The Lord Brexiteer is once again threatening to trigger A16 and blow up the deal. Which you have assured me is the point where it starts to work. So a solution is at hand is it not...
    Article 16 is part of the deal, so why do you think using it for the purpose for which it is intended would blow it up?
    Unlike UVDL unilaterally invoking Article 16 at night with zero notice, not even discussing it with Dublin first . . . Frost has been laying the groundwork for potentially invoking Article 16 for many months now.

    He said to Parliament, to the EU and in public repeatedly that the threshold for invocation is met but he wishes to try other solutions first. If the other solutions fail, there can be no objection to invocation happening. Its not like they haven't been warned that the threshold for invoking it had been met already.

    And when that happens - as it almost certainly will - the EU will respond by imposing trade sanctions of its choice on us. There are no wins here, Phil. Just further isolation for the UK.

    Since Article 16 is a legitimate part of the Treaty to be exercised, the EU are actually quite limited in what responses they can have within the confines of the Treaty.

    Unless they wish to break the Treaty, which A16 doesn't do.

    Responses to what is considered an unreasonable invocation are also a legitimate part of the Treaty.

    But its not unreasonable.

    Nobody is even arguing with Frost that the conditions to invoke it have been met. Are you denying that they have?

    The conditions to invoke it are quite explicit and they've quite clearly been met.

    The unreasonableness, or not, will ultimately be decided by the dispute resolution process if the parties do not agree. Invoking Article 16 also covers a multitude of actions - from the relatively minor to the nuclear. Let's see what happens. As I say, the idea that there are pain-free ways for Johnson and Frost to undo the mess they have created is for the fairies.

    Frost and Johnson didn't create the mess.

    May and Barnier created the mess by going arse about tit and choosing to "sort out" the Northern Ireland issue before the future of UK/EU trading relationship was sorted. Which was an impossibility that got us bogged down in a horrendous mess.

    Johnson and Frost sorted out 97% of the mess by sorting out the UK and EU's trading relationship first which is what should have happened all along.

    Now they're going back to sort out the final 3% as the last part of the negotiations. As they should have always been, instead of the first.

    No, Phil, Frost and Johnson signed up to a deal they did not understand or never meant to honour. They put a customs border in the Irish Sea. They told us it was a triumph. You are the only person in the world who still believes it was.

    It was a triumph.

    They got Brexit done dealing with GB which is 97% of the United Kingdom and 100% of the seats their MPs represent. They got done what May couldn't.

    As for not honouring the deal, they are honouring it in full. The deal literally had a get-out clause within it saying it didn't need to be applied in full if it created problems, and the problems were foreseeable, so it was entirely foreseeable the get-out clause could be invoked. Invoking a get-out clause you and the other party agreed in the negotiations is not failing to honour the deal.

    The Northern Irish tail should never have been allowed to wag the British dog. It isn't anymore, Johnson put paid to that nonsense and now proper negotiations can begin afresh as should have always happened in a logical order of events.
    If you truly believe this everybody (including "Boris") is laughing their socks off at you. But if you don't believe it, ie you're taking the piss, you (and of course "Boris") are laughing at us. I wonder which it is?
    I 100% hand on heart believe every word of it.

    Unless you come from a perspective that NI should be treated as equally as England in the negotiations (which I don't), how is any of what I said laughable?
    Ok, so if that's true it means the world is laughing at you. OTOH if it isn't true it means you're laughing at the world. I'm still wondering which it is. As all know I pride myself on being able to detect whether a PB poster is being sincere or is yanking the communal chain. Here, however, with you and this ridiculously rosy view of Johnson's Brexit shenanigans, I confess to some doubt. On balance I think you're telling the truth and do genuinely believe what you're saying, but it's a marginal assessment, wouldn't shock me one iota if I'm wrong. Intriguing situation we find ourselves in. Also slightly uncomfortable.
    No laughter. Indeed others have (perfectly reasonably) pointed out that its only my willingness to put England first before Northern Ireland that means I can take my view. But having done that, my view is entirely reasonable and no laughing matter.

    I don't see any shenanigans like you do. I see Britain having moved on from the quagmire of a mess that we'd found ourselves in under May's failed stewardship.

    Sure matters are worse for Northern Ireland right now. Sucks to be them. But its better for England and England > Northern Ireland.
    There is laughter but we don't know which way it's flowing, is where we are. You remember the PB Panel of Moderates which in order to ensure independence and objectivity neither you nor I are on? Well that is unanimous (10/0) that Johnson either (i) didn't understand the deal or (ii) did and always intended to renege on it. They are the only 2 possibilities within the boundaries of rational discussion, slapdash or bad faith, and the POM delivered a 5/5 split verdict. It would have been 5/6 in favour of bad faith, btw, if I'd have had a vote. I think old "Boris" legged the EU over.
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️
    William is great but he's gone bad on Brexit, I'm afraid. He's like an ex 40 a day man who now thinks smoking should carry a mandatory jail term.
  • eek said:

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    Brexit has made McDonald's start to hire 14 year olds.

    In Oregon.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58414597
    There is no minimum wage for Under 18s in Oregon and 14 year olds can work there.

    Spot the plan
    Brexit is causing labour shortages all over the USA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomspiggle/2021/07/08/what-does-a-worker-want-what-the-labor-shortage-really-tells-us/
  • eek said:

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    Brexit has made McDonald's start to hire 14 year olds.

    In Oregon.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58414597
    There is no minimum wage for Under 18s in Oregon and 14 year olds can work there.

    Spot the plan
    I nearly mentioned that Oregon McDonald's story in the thread header.

    'Worldwide there's all sorts curious employment market distortions, in Oregon they are hiring 14 year olds to work in McDonald's, but that's due to local issues, such as America having a higher level of Covid-19 denialism and lower vaccine acceptance, and it is inelegant to compare a nation with no minimum wage and very little employment protections but there is something viscerally different from having your Fillet O'Fish being served by a 14 year old than persistently finding shortages in supermarkets.'
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.

    German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,308
    Pulpstar said:

    India's 466 sticks out like a sore thumb. Ali needs replacing next test, you can't have bowlers going for 4.5 an over.
    England needed to have kept that to ~ 300 or so.

    With who though? We haven't got a good spin bowler for home test matches. Mo is the best available, it's him or Dom Bess and Bess is absolutely terrible, he'd have been going for one or two boundaries per over against this India batting line up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    A majority of Leavers (53%) have also experienced shortages.
    Well yes. But so, as we have seen, have Germans and Americans. Difficult to blame Brexit for shortages there.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,323
    Tests processed yesterday were up 50% on last week's figure for England. Pleasantly surprised with how low the case rise is on the back of that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    FTPT
    rkrkrk said:

    41k cases, 7k up in England week on week.

    The number I'm tracking closely is those in hospital in Scotland. Currently 771, doubled in about 2 weeks & 38% of previous peak. It's really taken off since schools went back.

    England by contrast is at a much lower 19% of previous peak.

    Possibly England will be different, I think probably more people are vaccinated than at comparable point in Scotland & probably more people have had the disease... but still think England has a lot more hospitalization burden to come.
    Yes the Scotland hospitalisation surge is a bit scary. Of course hopsitalisation has the old With/of Covid problem but Mechanical ventilation numbers are also rising strongly in Scotland and my contention is there is any with/of issues with that figure. A ventilated person with Covid is almost certainly on the ventilator because of Covid.

    Peak day this year for Scotland was 161 in January, currently it is at at 71 which is rapidly closing in on 50% peak level.

    England ventilator peak was an eye watering 3736 (more than double Scotland's peak figure on a per capita basis), currently 909 (which is higher the Scotland's currently surging figure).

    I've always contended that the unarguable "are we in the shit" figure is ventilator usage.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429

    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.

    German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    I'm still wearing masks when I feel it's appropriate, but wearing them has been really uncomfortable over the last couple of days, given the temperature. I'd reckon that'll put more than a few people off.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,198

    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris

    There is no fix for social care as to fix it correctly requires more money than can be pulled from anything that is already taxed.

    It probably requires £30bn a year to do things correctly which mean increasing NI by 20% not 1p.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,692

    FPT
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️

    Why would HMG trigger A16? It's a shortcut to a trade war that the EU would outgun the UK on, and it doesn't even resolve the NIP problem.

    Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,323
    Cookie said:

    The Remainers will blame empty shelves on Brexit - and thus Boris. Regardless of the actual cause.

    The polling is already reflecting that.

    A majority of Leavers (53%) have also experienced shortages.
    Well yes. But so, as we have seen, have Germans and Americans. Difficult to blame Brexit for shortages there.
    Frankly I'm surprised the 53% isn't higher. Most people aren't political obsessives so have no dog in the fight, and if you see loads of press coverage talking about shortages you're likely to say yes to that question when asked. Back in the real world it's an international phenomenon and shelves are never totally full anyway regardless of people's false recall.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    edited September 6

    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris

    The Conservatives, being in government, have thousands of civil servants to help out and can commission external assistance. And to be fair, HMG has come up with more than one plan for social care, even if it has not agreed on one. It's a nice line but rather a silly point from PB's favourite tweeter.
  • Its a weird question though "have you noticed shortages"?

    Because if you asked that any time of of any year then I could answer yes. There's always something sold out, depending upon what time of day you visit and what you're looking at. Try looking for sandwiches at 5pm on any normal day and see how many are available. 🤷‍♂️

    But now people are deliberately going out looking for and talking about shortages for political reasons so its more noticeable when it happens.

    Anyway, the market will find a solution. Its what it does. Goods that people really want, supermarkets will ensure are in stock. Goods people can live without, like bottled water, may not be a priority.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Tories have now followed Labour and adopted a social distancing policy during the Dominic Raab statement. Conservative MPs have shown their support for the embattled foreign secretary by leaving the chamber.
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1434907618724753409
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    edited September 6
    At Uni we have gone through a dearth of 18 year-olds for a number of years (something to do with the millennium and fewer babies. Is this playing something of a role too in the demand for workers?
  • FF43 said:

    FPT
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️

    Why would HMG trigger A16? It's a shortcut to a trade war that the EU would outgun the UK on, and it doesn't even resolve the NIP problem.

    Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
    How would it trigger a trade war? Its a perfectly legitimate part of the NIP.

    Anyway there's likely no need to invoke the Article as merely threatening to do so has had the same effect as actually doing so. The EU have almost completely backed down, so the threat is working as intended.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 6

    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.

    German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Yes, looks like the SPD will continue in government but as largest party this time (of course the SPD have been in government for 19 of the last 23 years anyway so it is not as big a change as it sounds).

    The Greens will come into government for the first time in 17 years and the CDU/CSU will head to opposition for the first time also in 17 years. The FDP meanwhile will join a government led by the SPD rather than the Union for the first time since 1982.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Entirely predictable move to kick the intra-Irish border fuckup into the grass again. We keep waiting for the EU to compromise the external EEA border. It doesn't.

    Is it not compromised at the moment?
    No more than usual. We are *aligned* to the EEA so allowing ever-decreasing volumes of stuff across with minimal checks is no threat.

    As we are pledged to not lower things like food standards we could have agreed an actual free trade deal. But no, we want to be a 3rd country and then complain about what that means in practice.
    We have agreed an actual free trade deal.

    I have no qualms with us being a third country. If they wish to impose checks at our countries border that's their choice, but they don't want to. That's their problem, they should solve it.
    It'd the kind of "free trade" that the right have campaigned against for decades - slow, costly, red-tape heavy. As for checks I don't think the EEA side are that bothered. If sales to the GB drop they have the rest of the market to sell to. It is our problem, not theirs.

    Anyway you should be pleased! The Lord Brexiteer is once again threatening to trigger A16 and blow up the deal. Which you have assured me is the point where it starts to work. So a solution is at hand is it not...
    Article 16 is part of the deal, so why do you think using it for the purpose for which it is intended would blow it up?
    Unlike UVDL unilaterally invoking Article 16 at night with zero notice, not even discussing it with Dublin first . . . Frost has been laying the groundwork for potentially invoking Article 16 for many months now.

    He said to Parliament, to the EU and in public repeatedly that the threshold for invocation is met but he wishes to try other solutions first. If the other solutions fail, there can be no objection to invocation happening. Its not like they haven't been warned that the threshold for invoking it had been met already.

    And when that happens - as it almost certainly will - the EU will respond by imposing trade sanctions of its choice on us. There are no wins here, Phil. Just further isolation for the UK.

    Since Article 16 is a legitimate part of the Treaty to be exercised, the EU are actually quite limited in what responses they can have within the confines of the Treaty.

    Unless they wish to break the Treaty, which A16 doesn't do.

    Responses to what is considered an unreasonable invocation are also a legitimate part of the Treaty.

    But its not unreasonable.

    Nobody is even arguing with Frost that the conditions to invoke it have been met. Are you denying that they have?

    The conditions to invoke it are quite explicit and they've quite clearly been met.

    The unreasonableness, or not, will ultimately be decided by the dispute resolution process if the parties do not agree. Invoking Article 16 also covers a multitude of actions - from the relatively minor to the nuclear. Let's see what happens. As I say, the idea that there are pain-free ways for Johnson and Frost to undo the mess they have created is for the fairies.

    Frost and Johnson didn't create the mess.

    May and Barnier created the mess by going arse about tit and choosing to "sort out" the Northern Ireland issue before the future of UK/EU trading relationship was sorted. Which was an impossibility that got us bogged down in a horrendous mess.

    Johnson and Frost sorted out 97% of the mess by sorting out the UK and EU's trading relationship first which is what should have happened all along.

    Now they're going back to sort out the final 3% as the last part of the negotiations. As they should have always been, instead of the first.

    No, Phil, Frost and Johnson signed up to a deal they did not understand or never meant to honour. They put a customs border in the Irish Sea. They told us it was a triumph. You are the only person in the world who still believes it was.

    It was a triumph.

    They got Brexit done dealing with GB which is 97% of the United Kingdom and 100% of the seats their MPs represent. They got done what May couldn't.

    As for not honouring the deal, they are honouring it in full. The deal literally had a get-out clause within it saying it didn't need to be applied in full if it created problems, and the problems were foreseeable, so it was entirely foreseeable the get-out clause could be invoked. Invoking a get-out clause you and the other party agreed in the negotiations is not failing to honour the deal.

    The Northern Irish tail should never have been allowed to wag the British dog. It isn't anymore, Johnson put paid to that nonsense and now proper negotiations can begin afresh as should have always happened in a logical order of events.
    If you truly believe this everybody (including "Boris") is laughing their socks off at you. But if you don't believe it, ie you're taking the piss, you (and of course "Boris") are laughing at us. I wonder which it is?
    I 100% hand on heart believe every word of it.

    Unless you come from a perspective that NI should be treated as equally as England in the negotiations (which I don't), how is any of what I said laughable?
    Ok, so if that's true it means the world is laughing at you. OTOH if it isn't true it means you're laughing at the world. I'm still wondering which it is. As all know I pride myself on being able to detect whether a PB poster is being sincere or is yanking the communal chain. Here, however, with you and this ridiculously rosy view of Johnson's Brexit shenanigans, I confess to some doubt. On balance I think you're telling the truth and do genuinely believe what you're saying, but it's a marginal assessment, wouldn't shock me one iota if I'm wrong. Intriguing situation we find ourselves in. Also slightly uncomfortable.
    No laughter. Indeed others have (perfectly reasonably) pointed out that its only my willingness to put England first before Northern Ireland that means I can take my view. But having done that, my view is entirely reasonable and no laughing matter.

    I don't see any shenanigans like you do. I see Britain having moved on from the quagmire of a mess that we'd found ourselves in under May's failed stewardship.

    Sure matters are worse for Northern Ireland right now. Sucks to be them. But its better for England and England > Northern Ireland.
    There is laughter but we don't know which way it's flowing, is where we are. You remember the PB Panel of Moderates which in order to ensure independence and objectivity neither you nor I are on? Well that is unanimous (10/0) that Johnson either (i) didn't understand the deal or (ii) did and always intended to renege on it. They are the only 2 possibilities within the boundaries of rational discussion, slapdash or bad faith, and the POM delivered a 5/5 split verdict. It would have been 5/6 in favour of bad faith, btw, if I'd have had a vote. I think old "Boris" legged the EU over.
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️
    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

  • algarkirk said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Entirely predictable move to kick the intra-Irish border fuckup into the grass again. We keep waiting for the EU to compromise the external EEA border. It doesn't.

    Is it not compromised at the moment?
    No more than usual. We are *aligned* to the EEA so allowing ever-decreasing volumes of stuff across with minimal checks is no threat.

    As we are pledged to not lower things like food standards we could have agreed an actual free trade deal. But no, we want to be a 3rd country and then complain about what that means in practice.
    We have agreed an actual free trade deal.

    I have no qualms with us being a third country. If they wish to impose checks at our countries border that's their choice, but they don't want to. That's their problem, they should solve it.
    It'd the kind of "free trade" that the right have campaigned against for decades - slow, costly, red-tape heavy. As for checks I don't think the EEA side are that bothered. If sales to the GB drop they have the rest of the market to sell to. It is our problem, not theirs.

    Anyway you should be pleased! The Lord Brexiteer is once again threatening to trigger A16 and blow up the deal. Which you have assured me is the point where it starts to work. So a solution is at hand is it not...
    Article 16 is part of the deal, so why do you think using it for the purpose for which it is intended would blow it up?
    Unlike UVDL unilaterally invoking Article 16 at night with zero notice, not even discussing it with Dublin first . . . Frost has been laying the groundwork for potentially invoking Article 16 for many months now.

    He said to Parliament, to the EU and in public repeatedly that the threshold for invocation is met but he wishes to try other solutions first. If the other solutions fail, there can be no objection to invocation happening. Its not like they haven't been warned that the threshold for invoking it had been met already.

    And when that happens - as it almost certainly will - the EU will respond by imposing trade sanctions of its choice on us. There are no wins here, Phil. Just further isolation for the UK.

    Since Article 16 is a legitimate part of the Treaty to be exercised, the EU are actually quite limited in what responses they can have within the confines of the Treaty.

    Unless they wish to break the Treaty, which A16 doesn't do.

    Responses to what is considered an unreasonable invocation are also a legitimate part of the Treaty.

    But its not unreasonable.

    Nobody is even arguing with Frost that the conditions to invoke it have been met. Are you denying that they have?

    The conditions to invoke it are quite explicit and they've quite clearly been met.

    The unreasonableness, or not, will ultimately be decided by the dispute resolution process if the parties do not agree. Invoking Article 16 also covers a multitude of actions - from the relatively minor to the nuclear. Let's see what happens. As I say, the idea that there are pain-free ways for Johnson and Frost to undo the mess they have created is for the fairies.

    Frost and Johnson didn't create the mess.

    May and Barnier created the mess by going arse about tit and choosing to "sort out" the Northern Ireland issue before the future of UK/EU trading relationship was sorted. Which was an impossibility that got us bogged down in a horrendous mess.

    Johnson and Frost sorted out 97% of the mess by sorting out the UK and EU's trading relationship first which is what should have happened all along.

    Now they're going back to sort out the final 3% as the last part of the negotiations. As they should have always been, instead of the first.

    No, Phil, Frost and Johnson signed up to a deal they did not understand or never meant to honour. They put a customs border in the Irish Sea. They told us it was a triumph. You are the only person in the world who still believes it was.

    It was a triumph.

    They got Brexit done dealing with GB which is 97% of the United Kingdom and 100% of the seats their MPs represent. They got done what May couldn't.

    As for not honouring the deal, they are honouring it in full. The deal literally had a get-out clause within it saying it didn't need to be applied in full if it created problems, and the problems were foreseeable, so it was entirely foreseeable the get-out clause could be invoked. Invoking a get-out clause you and the other party agreed in the negotiations is not failing to honour the deal.

    The Northern Irish tail should never have been allowed to wag the British dog. It isn't anymore, Johnson put paid to that nonsense and now proper negotiations can begin afresh as should have always happened in a logical order of events.
    If you truly believe this everybody (including "Boris") is laughing their socks off at you. But if you don't believe it, ie you're taking the piss, you (and of course "Boris") are laughing at us. I wonder which it is?
    I 100% hand on heart believe every word of it.

    Unless you come from a perspective that NI should be treated as equally as England in the negotiations (which I don't), how is any of what I said laughable?
    Ok, so if that's true it means the world is laughing at you. OTOH if it isn't true it means you're laughing at the world. I'm still wondering which it is. As all know I pride myself on being able to detect whether a PB poster is being sincere or is yanking the communal chain. Here, however, with you and this ridiculously rosy view of Johnson's Brexit shenanigans, I confess to some doubt. On balance I think you're telling the truth and do genuinely believe what you're saying, but it's a marginal assessment, wouldn't shock me one iota if I'm wrong. Intriguing situation we find ourselves in. Also slightly uncomfortable.
    No laughter. Indeed others have (perfectly reasonably) pointed out that its only my willingness to put England first before Northern Ireland that means I can take my view. But having done that, my view is entirely reasonable and no laughing matter.

    I don't see any shenanigans like you do. I see Britain having moved on from the quagmire of a mess that we'd found ourselves in under May's failed stewardship.

    Sure matters are worse for Northern Ireland right now. Sucks to be them. But its better for England and England > Northern Ireland.
    There is laughter but we don't know which way it's flowing, is where we are. You remember the PB Panel of Moderates which in order to ensure independence and objectivity neither you nor I are on? Well that is unanimous (10/0) that Johnson either (i) didn't understand the deal or (ii) did and always intended to renege on it. They are the only 2 possibilities within the boundaries of rational discussion, slapdash or bad faith, and the POM delivered a 5/5 split verdict. It would have been 5/6 in favour of bad faith, btw, if I'd have had a vote. I think old "Boris" legged the EU over.
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️
    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    Absolutely I agree with that.

    But revisiting an issue to get a better solution later on isn't a bad thing. Indeed solving most issues now, then going back to sort out the rest later on, can very often be a successful management technique.

    Its like the Pareto Principle on steroids.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris

    Labour would imo be nuts to get bogged down in floating alternative proposals. The GE is years away and the government is (barring a u turn) stuck with trying to defend the indefensible with this NI plan. It can be ripped apart on so many levels that Labour's biggest challenge is knowing where to start.
  • Does anyone want to write a thread on the

    1) Canadian elections

    and/or

    2) The German elections
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Pinned Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    22s
    Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):

    Conservative 41% (–)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 29 Aug
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
  • algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
  • felix said:

    Pinned Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    22s
    Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):

    Conservative 41% (–)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 29 Aug

    9% lead with this chaos

    He is hard to understand it
  • algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,308

    At Uni we have gone through a dearth of 18 year-olds for a number of years (something to do with the millennium and fewer babies. Is this playing something of a role too in the demand for workers?

    Yes, having kids is expensive and fewer families are having two or more. As @rcs1000 has pointed out a few times only the French have figured this out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK local R

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    edited September 6

    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.

    German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    I'm still wearing masks when I feel it's appropriate, but wearing them has been really uncomfortable over the last couple of days, given the temperature. I'd reckon that'll put more than a few people off.
    I'm a total conformist on this. I wear a mask where most are wearing a mask, and not where not. So, Waitrose = yes, Tesco = No, Dept Stores = Yes, Golf club = No, Gym = No, Pub = No, Opticians = Yes, Dentist = Yes, Houses = per host.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 6

    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris

    The Conservatives, being in government, have thousands of civil servants to help out and can commission external assistance. And to be fair, HMG has come up with more than one plan for social care, even if it has not agreed on one. It's a nice line but rather a silly point from PB's favourite tweeter.
    I am not sure having 1000s of Sir Humphreys necessarily help the situation....

    What you need is a small number of people who work through an idea and deploy it before the blob slow it down to a crawl. A good example.Lib Dem in coalition with pensions, Steve Webb knew his onions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK case summary

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  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    felix said:

    Pinned Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    22s
    Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):

    Conservative 41% (–)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 29 Aug

    9% lead with this chaos

    He is hard to understand it
    Not at all - twitter is one thing, Scott'n'paste another and the real world is quite a different animal. Goodness knows people have told them for years now and they just don't get it. Didn't get it over Brexit or Corbyn and they keep on not getting it to the point of embarrassment.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841

    Its a weird question though "have you noticed shortages"?

    Because if you asked that any time of of any year then I could answer yes. There's always something sold out, depending upon what time of day you visit and what you're looking at. Try looking for sandwiches at 5pm on any normal day and see how many are available. 🤷‍♂️

    But now people are deliberately going out looking for and talking about shortages for political reasons so its more noticeable when it happens.

    Anyway, the market will find a solution. Its what it does. Goods that people really want, supermarkets will ensure are in stock. Goods people can live without, like bottled water, may not be a priority.

    I assume people are sensible about this. Our last 2 shops at Sainsbury's Cobham the answer is no shortages, although that is not to say stuff wasn't missing, but as you say there is always something missing, but just the normal level. However the previous 3 shops (I think, could verify if I could be bothered because I post here each time) there were large sections missing, which isn't normal. To be honest though it doesn't really impact the shop as it isn't like when we had panic buying so it is different stuff each time (and never loo rolls!)
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    felix said:

    Pinned Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    22s
    Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):

    Conservative 41% (–)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 29 Aug

    9% lead with this chaos

    He is hard to understand it
    It really isn’t. What do labour offer ? What does labour stand for ?
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    As an addendum though, good header. All I would add is that perception matters and in spite of the attempts by the irreconciled Remainers to pin this all on Brexit, most people still seem to think it is due to covid and particularly the pingdemic. One might almost think the Government created that idiotic episode as a perfect cover for any Brexit failings.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK hospitals

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    kinabalu said:

    What I said on PB at 8:10am this morning:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    The Conservatives have had 12 years to come up with a plan for social care. But so have Labour:
    @MrTCHarris

    Labour would imo be nuts to get bogged down in floating alternative proposals. The GE is years away and the government is (barring a u turn) stuck with trying to defend the indefensible with this NI plan. It can be ripped apart on so many levels that Labour's biggest challenge is knowing where to start.
    You are probably correct, but they will face a lot of "so what would labour do?" questioning. At some point they will need to front up.

    I'd argue that the best solution for the country would be a cross party agreement, but sadly low political cunning will almost certainly scupper that. As a country we need to decide who should pay for social care, and whether inheritance of your parents estate is a right, or something that is conditional on other factors. One thing that people in this country do stick to - a sense of fair play.

    I was once very struck by the attitude of the grandparents of a friend. They had been frugal all their lives, scrimped, saved and paid their way. They were furious that others of their age had been spendthrift throughout and were now being supported by the state, because they couldn't support themselves. I think they would say if you have assets you should pay for you own care until you can no longer do so (with a cap set at a certain point).

    None of this is easy. Most young people don't think they will ever get ill, or get old, or die. But they all will eventually. For the fortunate ones they will live long, healthy lives and then get taken swiftly at the end of a heart attack in their sleep. But we won't all be lucky. We have to do better as a society than 2 to 4 short visits a day where a carer has to chose between feeding someone or washing them, or other things.

    I don't know the answer, but we have a duty to try harder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    UK deaths

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,692

    FF43 said:

    FPT
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️

    Why would HMG trigger A16? It's a shortcut to a trade war that the EU would outgun the UK on, and it doesn't even resolve the NIP problem.

    Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
    How would it trigger a trade war? Its a perfectly legitimate part of the NIP.

    Anyway there's likely no need to invoke the Article as merely threatening to do so has had the same effect as actually doing so. The EU have almost completely backed down, so the threat is working as intended.
    Dealing with your second point first. The EU has not backed down on anything, which is why Frost keeps making these speeches. The EU cannot easily force the UK to implement the NIP if it doesn't want to do so, which is a different point unrelated to A16.

    A16 is a legitimate control that both parties can fire unilaterally. If the UK goes first, the EU is guaranteed to go second with countermeasures. A16 can only legitimately be used for technical issues with the implementation of the NIP. Given the UK doesn't want to implement the NIP anyway, A16 doesn't help its objective to get it changed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006
    There are post Covid labour shortages across the developed world. It's nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with economic activity rebounding, with firms understaffed. When I was in Napa, we were in a full hotel, and the bar was shut four days of the week, because they couldn't find people to staff it. They were literally throwing away thousands of dollars per night, because of staff shortages.

    There are some road haulage issues exacerbated by Brexit. Not solely caused by Brexit, but a consequence of the fact that (a) we're not part of the EEA road haulage network anymore, and (b) the DVLA has not been issuing new HGV licenses due to Covid. I suspect that a smaller version of this has happened elsewhere, but it's been a little worse for us. This will sort itself out over the next 18 months, as people enter the HGV driving market, attracted by higher wages.

    It is possible that it has longer term consequences. We don't know whether firms considering investment decisions in Europe will take into account current logistical difficulties and prices. If they regard them as temporary, the effect will likely be minimal. If they are concerned they are longer lasting, then we may lose out on some opportunities. But we simply don't know yet, and this will only be a part of why firms make decisions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,006
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway made sure the resources benefitted its population and largely developed them using state-owned companies... the UK left it up to private companies, and didn't negotiate a good deal. This analysis reckons UK missed out on hundreds of billions of revenue.

    https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-£400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

    Hang on.

    BP was state owned at the time. So the British government gained on the privatisation of BP later in the decade.

    Now, it may be that the terms offered to companies for exploiting the North Sea were more favourable for the Norwegian government, but it is also worth remembering that when initial licenses were being auctioned, no-one was really sure it was going to work. The UK Continental Shelf Act was in 1963/64 and then there were a succession of dry holes. I forget the actual number, but I think of the first 48 or 49 wells drilled in the North Sea, none found oil. (Although a few found gas, which at the time was massively less valuable.)

    Only with Ecofisk (which was the last well Phillips petroleum was planning on drilling, so unhappy were they with the North Sea), that things were transformed.

    The Norwegians were lucky. They sold licenses later. And therefore they got the benefit of people knowing that oil was there.
    As the link notes - a few extra billion from privatizations doesn't change the overall arithmetic.
    It wasn't luck - > better judgment & not being ideologically driven to privatise, instead being open for the public sector to take on risk. Ultimately a very costly mistake not to keep equity in case of a large upside.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    rcs1000 said:

    There are post Covid labour shortages across the developed world. It's nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with economic activity rebounding, with firms understaffed. When I was in Napa, we were in a full hotel, and the bar was shut four days of the week, because they couldn't find people to staff it. They were literally throwing away thousands of dollars per night, because of staff shortages.

    There are some road haulage issues exacerbated by Brexit. Not solely caused by Brexit, but a consequence of the fact that (a) we're not part of the EEA road haulage network anymore, and (b) the DVLA has not been issuing new HGV licenses due to Covid. I suspect that a smaller version of this has happened elsewhere, but it's been a little worse for us. This will sort itself out over the next 18 months, as people enter the HGV driving market, attracted by higher wages.

    It is possible that it has longer term consequences. We don't know whether firms considering investment decisions in Europe will take into account current logistical difficulties and prices. If they regard them as temporary, the effect will likely be minimal. If they are concerned they are longer lasting, then we may lose out on some opportunities. But we simply don't know yet, and this will only be a part of why firms make decisions.

    IN the UK at least, one of the major blockages has been the complete shut down of *driving tests* - the backlog is huge.

    People are trying to get driving tests booked and can't find a slot before next May, in some cases.
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
    In which case I hope you will be picking up those posting pictures of empty fizzy water shelves.

    As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
  • Taz said:

    felix said:

    Pinned Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    22s
    Westminster Voting Intention (6 Sept):

    Conservative 41% (–)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 29 Aug

    9% lead with this chaos

    He is hard to understand it
    It really isn’t. What do labour offer ? What does labour stand for ?
    Liz Kendall said it is the Labour Party policy for people not to have to sacrifice their life savings for care

    Then when repeatedly questioned did not have any idea or proposals to address it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 6
    What the deal with Australian truck drivers? I keep seeing something or other on twitter about them protesting?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    edited September 6

    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    More or Less had a good episode on this (HGV drivers) yesterday. Their conclusion? Brexit is a contributory factor, as are other issues. This in response to a supposed shortage of HGV drivers of 100,000.

    There was a shortage of 60,000 HGV drivers the year before the Brexit (2019) and 50,000 in 2015.

    25,000 fewer people passed their HGV test vs the year before.

    In 2019 before Brexit there were 44,000 lorry drivers from the EU and now there are around 25,000.

    So
    19,000 from Brexit
    25,000 from fewer tests passed
    60,000 residual shortage

    = 100,000 shortage.

    But that 100,000 is not a robust number according to MoL. No one knows how many there are to determine there is a 100,000 shortage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    On topic: It might not be Winter Of Discontent type carnage - rats nibbling at uncollected rubbish, bodies unburied and starting to hum - but food shortages (especially of essentials such as fresh fruit and veg) are exactly the sort of thing that can cause the public to get the hump with governments. So Johnson ought not to be complacent about this, thinking he can blame it all on Covid. People are not fools.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FPT
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️

    Why would HMG trigger A16? It's a shortcut to a trade war that the EU would outgun the UK on, and it doesn't even resolve the NIP problem.

    Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
    How would it trigger a trade war? Its a perfectly legitimate part of the NIP.

    Anyway there's likely no need to invoke the Article as merely threatening to do so has had the same effect as actually doing so. The EU have almost completely backed down, so the threat is working as intended.
    Dealing with your second point first. The EU has not backed down on anything, which is why Frost keeps making these speeches. The EU cannot easily force the UK to implement the NIP if it doesn't want to do so, which is a different point unrelated to A16.

    A16 is a legitimate control that both parties can fire unilaterally. If the UK goes first, the EU is guaranteed to go second with countermeasures. A16 can only legitimately be used for technical issues with the implementation of the NIP. Given the UK doesn't want to implement the NIP anyway, A16 doesn't help its objective to get it changed.
    Frost can keep making these speeches until eternity because they're working. Why change a formula that is working?

    A few months ago the EU were threatening to invoke sanctions immediately if we extending the grace periods. We did - and they backed down. Now we're doing so again, and they've already backed down.

    The threats have vanished because the reality is we hold all the power and they can't force us to implement what we don't want to do. The deal was better for us than they realised/worse for them than they thought it would be - and we hold all the cards.

    So we can keep making speeches and do whatever we please. And they can keep fuming and doing nothing about it.

    Eventually grown ups will take over, over there, and the Protocol will be renegotiated to something smarter - and Frost and Boris will have achieved their plan.
  • algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    It appears your knowledge of chess and card games is similar to your knowledge on "herd immunity" and international negotiation. No, hang on, just negotiation generally. Johnson fucked up the negotiation because to use a phrase that someone on here once used, he couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS. He is a journalist FFS! He has never had to negotiate a thing in his life, other than getting into the next debutants knickers. You don't want to see that because you have been suckered by him and his "get Brexit done" bollox. Quaint really.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    @ProfTimBale The @instituteforgov really needs to write a paper on the inefficiencies of the government requiring Marcus Rashford to "call for" stuff instead of just letting him run the country.

    The result is the same, it's just needless delay and complication at this point.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1434826489212641283


    The entire nation got behind the national team this Summer so let’s put these figures in football terms:

    You can fill 27 Wembley stadiums with the 2.5 million children that are struggling to know where their next meal might be coming from today…

    https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1434910766172356609
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,013
    rcs1000 said:

    There are post Covid labour shortages across the developed world. It's nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with economic activity rebounding, with firms understaffed. When I was in Napa, we were in a full hotel, and the bar was shut four days of the week, because they couldn't find people to staff it. They were literally throwing away thousands of dollars per night, because of staff shortages.

    There are some road haulage issues exacerbated by Brexit. Not solely caused by Brexit, but a consequence of the fact that (a) we're not part of the EEA road haulage network anymore, and (b) the DVLA has not been issuing new HGV licenses due to Covid. I suspect that a smaller version of this has happened elsewhere, but it's been a little worse for us. This will sort itself out over the next 18 months, as people enter the HGV driving market, attracted by higher wages.

    It is possible that it has longer term consequences. We don't know whether firms considering investment decisions in Europe will take into account current logistical difficulties and prices. If they regard them as temporary, the effect will likely be minimal. If they are concerned they are longer lasting, then we may lose out on some opportunities. But we simply don't know yet, and this will only be a part of why firms make decisions.

    It leads to some very simple but imo unanswered questions.

    Why were HGV driving tests suspended for so long? If Ubers were allowed throughout why couldnt we do an HGV test?
    What plans were put in place to catch up on their resumption?
    Why do we not allow temporary 1-2 year visas for HGV drivers?
    Why do we not pay for free tuition for HGV drivers?

    Simply saying it is due to covid is a complete abdication of govt responsibility and capability.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572

    What the deal with Australian truck drivers? I keep seeing something or other on twitter about them protesting?

    As in the US, Australian truck drivers are heavily unionised and regularly have disputes about pay and conditions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    "We" again is not the United Kingdom in your book, so no "we" didn't.

    Your position on this, jettisoning NI because it is inconvenient to your English nationalist view of the world, renders your pronouncements as irrelevant as Wolfie Smith's Tooting Popular Front's wailings.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FPT
    Actually you're wrong. Boris invoking Article 16, a perfectly valid Article of the Protocol, is not "bad faith" it is the Protocol being implemented as written.

    Don't take my word for it, ask @williamglenn

    PS though even if Boris did "leg over" the EU - then that's still a great result. 🤷‍♂️

    Why would HMG trigger A16? It's a shortcut to a trade war that the EU would outgun the UK on, and it doesn't even resolve the NIP problem.

    Apparently Johnson was on the point of going A16 in July and Frost keeps going on about it, so we should take it seriously, but I am baffled why. I don't think Johnson is completely stupid - Frost I am not sure about.
    How would it trigger a trade war? Its a perfectly legitimate part of the NIP.

    Anyway there's likely no need to invoke the Article as merely threatening to do so has had the same effect as actually doing so. The EU have almost completely backed down, so the threat is working as intended.
    Dealing with your second point first. The EU has not backed down on anything, which is why Frost keeps making these speeches. The EU cannot easily force the UK to implement the NIP if it doesn't want to do so, which is a different point unrelated to A16.

    A16 is a legitimate control that both parties can fire unilaterally. If the UK goes first, the EU is guaranteed to go second with countermeasures. A16 can only legitimately be used for technical issues with the implementation of the NIP. Given the UK doesn't want to implement the NIP anyway, A16 doesn't help its objective to get it changed.
    You won't get through to Philip. He is a true "Boris" believer and ludicrously believes that Johnson is the best negotiator since Henry Kissinger. Nothing you can say will divert him from that belief set.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,429
    kinabalu said:

    The shortages are relatively minor at present, but people are sensitised and starting to attribute any temporary lack of stock to the general narrative of HGV disruption (not so much Brexit, yet).

    Anecdata - visited a friend in Brighton yesterday for a pub crawl (something I've never done in my life, you're never too old to try new things...). Masking was well down on even a crowded train (about 20%) and social distancing had been completed abandoned in the streets. Very different from cautious Godalming. Pubs were still making a bit of an effort with signs encouraging distancing and tables fairly well separated.

    German update from INSA, who seem to be doing polls ever few days now: SPD 26 (+1), CDU 20.5 (+0.5), Greens 15.5 (-0.5), FDP 12.5 (-0.5), Linke 6.5 (-0.5), AfD 11(-1). SPD win nailed on, with a coalition with Green and FDP looking the only realistic option.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    I'm still wearing masks when I feel it's appropriate, but wearing them has been really uncomfortable over the last couple of days, given the temperature. I'd reckon that'll put more than a few people off.
    I'm a total conformist on this. I wear a mask where most are wearing a mask, and not where not. So, Waitrose = yes, Tesco = No, Dept Stores = Yes, Golf club = No, Gym = No, Pub = No, Opticians = Yes, Dentist = Yes, Houses = per host.
    I was thinking about this today: if shop staff are wearing masks, it might be good to wear them as well...
  • algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    It appears your knowledge of chess and card games is similar to your knowledge on "herd immunity" and international negotiation. No, hang on, just negotiation generally. Johnson fucked up the negotiation because to use a phrase that someone on here once used, he couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS. He is a journalist FFS! He has never had to negotiate a thing in his life, other than getting into the next debutants knickers. You don't want to see that because you have been suckered by him and his "get Brexit done" bollox. Quaint really.
    It was a deliberately mixed metaphor. 🤦‍♂️

    But if Boris couldn't negotiate a discount, how come he managed to get the atrociously awful backstop replaced with a NI-only Protocol that the EU can't even get the UK to implement against its will?

    Seems like he's achieved a 98.5% discount to me. 97% by avoiding GB in the Protocol, and a further 50% because its only half-implemented in NI anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,353

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
    In which case I hope you will be picking up those posting pictures of empty fizzy water shelves.

    As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
    They’re unusual in still sourcing online deliveries from the local store, rather than through a separate network of warehouses. Whether this affects things I don’t know.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    You won't get through to Philip. He is a true "Boris" believer and ludicrously believes that Johnson is the best negotiator since Henry Kissinger. Nothing you can say will divert him from that belief set.

    Nah, he's just a troll
  • TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    "We" again is not the United Kingdom in your book, so no "we" didn't.

    Your position on this, jettisoning NI because it is inconvenient to your English nationalist view of the world, renders your pronouncements as irrelevant as Wolfie Smith's Tooting Popular Front's wailings.
    No we is not the United Kingdom.

    But "we" is the collective will of the United Kingdom Parliament.

    Its not just me that was prepared to jettison NI, to be sorted out later. It was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and over 500 MPs in the House of Commons who voted to ratify the deal too.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    edited September 6

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    'Food shortages' are what happened in Bengal in 1943, to take one example. Sometimes you get the impression that in the UK we have no idea how rich and well provided for we are, and what a fantastic job food producers and retailers do.

    BTW the Tories led in the polls during the petrol delivery strike, but Labour won the subsequent election without much difficulty.

    On another subject, that of there being no majority on the current state of Brexit (earlier discussion): the significant take away is this: a minority want to rejoin EU; but crucially the majority want to stay out. What sort of staying out we do is a matter for parliament and government, and every now and then, voters. There are no majorities for what sort of staying out we want. That's why we have elections, parliaments and politicians.

    Once issues are linked it is unusual to get majorities. Eg, in Scotland there are four relevant positions on the constitution:
    1) UK and Brexit
    2) Independence and EU
    3) UK and EU
    4) Independence and stay out of EU.

    I bet there is nothing close to 50% for any of them.



  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
    In which case I hope you will be picking up those posting pictures of empty fizzy water shelves.

    As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
    I think it is simply volume, which makes their supply chain a little more vulnerable than some of the larger chains that can spread shortages/surpluses over a greater number of stores .
  • rkrkrk said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway made sure the resources benefitted its population and largely developed them using state-owned companies... the UK left it up to private companies, and didn't negotiate a good deal. This analysis reckons UK missed out on hundreds of billions of revenue.

    https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-£400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

    Hang on.

    BP was state owned at the time. So the British government gained on the privatisation of BP later in the decade.

    Now, it may be that the terms offered to companies for exploiting the North Sea were more favourable for the Norwegian government, but it is also worth remembering that when initial licenses were being auctioned, no-one was really sure it was going to work. The UK Continental Shelf Act was in 1963/64 and then there were a succession of dry holes. I forget the actual number, but I think of the first 48 or 49 wells drilled in the North Sea, none found oil. (Although a few found gas, which at the time was massively less valuable.)

    Only with Ecofisk (which was the last well Phillips petroleum was planning on drilling, so unhappy were they with the North Sea), that things were transformed.

    The Norwegians were lucky. They sold licenses later. And therefore they got the benefit of people knowing that oil was there.
    As the link notes - a few extra billion from privatizations doesn't change the overall arithmetic.
    It wasn't luck - > better judgment & not being ideologically driven to privatise, instead being open for the public sector to take on risk. Ultimately a very costly mistake not to keep equity in case of a large upside.

    It would also have been an equally costly mistake to have tried to carry the costs and risks for themselves though. A quick trawl through the history of the North sea and how many companies went bust or were only saved from going bust by being bought out by other companies shows how much risk would have been involved. Only 1 in 7 wells drilled in the North Sea ever found hydrocarbons and only 1 in 11 ever led to development.

    The history of BNOC/Britoil is instructive in this case but they were only one amongst very many.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 6
    TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Tap water around here is utterly minging.

    Some days it comes with a foam.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,323
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
    In which case I hope you will be picking up those posting pictures of empty fizzy water shelves.

    As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
    They’re unusual in still sourcing online deliveries from the local store, rather than through a separate network of warehouses. Whether this affects things I don’t know.
    That's not unusual, most Online is still store pick outside of Ocado, even if there's the odd dark-store and local fulfilment centre trialling going on.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,006
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    rkrkrk said:

    41k cases, 7k up in England week on week.

    The number I'm tracking closely is those in hospital in Scotland. Currently 771, doubled in about 2 weeks & 38% of previous peak. It's really taken off since schools went back.

    England by contrast is at a much lower 19% of previous peak.

    Possibly England will be different, I think probably more people are vaccinated than at comparable point in Scotland & probably more people have had the disease... but still think England has a lot more hospitalization burden to come.
    Yes the Scotland hospitalisation surge is a bit scary. Of course hopsitalisation has the old With/of Covid problem but Mechanical ventilation numbers are also rising strongly in Scotland and my contention is there is any with/of issues with that figure. A ventilated person with Covid is almost certainly on the ventilator because of Covid.

    Peak day this year for Scotland was 161 in January, currently it is at at 71 which is rapidly closing in on 50% peak level.

    England ventilator peak was an eye watering 3736 (more than double Scotland's peak figure on a per capita basis), currently 909 (which is higher the Scotland's currently surging figure).

    I've always contended that the unarguable "are we in the shit" figure is ventilator usage.
    Another interesting way to cut it. Again suggests considerable room for things to get worse in England.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    "We" again is not the United Kingdom in your book, so no "we" didn't.

    Your position on this, jettisoning NI because it is inconvenient to your English nationalist view of the world, renders your pronouncements as irrelevant as Wolfie Smith's Tooting Popular Front's wailings.
    No we is not the United Kingdom.

    But "we" is the collective will of the United Kingdom Parliament.

    Its not just me that was prepared to jettison NI, to be sorted out later. It was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and over 500 MPs in the House of Commons who voted to ratify the deal too.
    First off, we is most certainly the United Kingdom.

    Second of all, yes you are right. Parliament ratified a deal which clearly sets a path towards a United Ireland. But they say they didn't and that's the critical point. Boris can you believe it maintains that he doesn't want a united Ireland and is acting for the United Kingdom.

    I know. Absurd.
  • TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Tap water around here is utterly minging.

    Some days it comes with a foam.
    Why not just either have a filter fitted or use a filter jug?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    algarkirk said:

    a minority want to rejoin EU; but crucially the majority want to stay out.

    That is an opinion, not a statement of fact
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,013
    TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Not really, just the power of marketing. If people are willing to spend £13 for 20 cancer sticks with human deformities on the front cover, it is hardly surprising they can also be convinced to buy some peckham spring.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    The hilarious bit is that many of the people I know who believe that tap water is toxic, buy water in cheap plastic containers that fairly scream "leaching chemicals".

    They are often astonished when you ask them if their re-usable water bottles are off Amazon, and are lined with the finest toxic Chinese plastic. If not actually made out of it. To many, the idea of using an unlined stainless steel bottle is something they've never come across....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Tap water around here is utterly minging.

    Some days it comes with a foam.
    Get a filter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Not really, just the power of marketing. If people are willing to spend £13 for 20 cancer sticks with human deformities on the front cover, it is hardly surprising they can also be convinced to buy some peckham spring.
    Or Dasani.
  • algarkirk said:

    Boris and Brexit. At the time it was politically essential for Boris to deliver Brexit. otherwise he and the Tories were toast.

    He had these options:

    Leave, no deal, make the NI/RoI border the EU's problem.

    Or

    Leave, with deal, take on the insoluble border problem - because unless he took it on the EU wouldn't agree a deal.

    I suspect No Deal would have been 20 times more catastrophic than Deal + owning the NI/RoI border problem.

    So Boris did right; but knew, as did we all, that the border's insolubility would have to be revisited.

    But we held all the cards, why didn't Boris Johnson use them?
    We did. Which is why we got the deal we wanted for England and forced the EU into a position where we could compel them to revisit NI later on.

    Check and mate.
    It appears your knowledge of chess and card games is similar to your knowledge on "herd immunity" and international negotiation. No, hang on, just negotiation generally. Johnson fucked up the negotiation because to use a phrase that someone on here once used, he couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS. He is a journalist FFS! He has never had to negotiate a thing in his life, other than getting into the next debutants knickers. You don't want to see that because you have been suckered by him and his "get Brexit done" bollox. Quaint really.
    It was a deliberately mixed metaphor. 🤦‍♂️

    But if Boris couldn't negotiate a discount, how come he managed to get the atrociously awful backstop replaced with a NI-only Protocol that the EU can't even get the UK to implement against its will?

    Seems like he's achieved a 98.5% discount to me. 97% by avoiding GB in the Protocol, and a further 50% because its only half-implemented in NI anyway.
    that is because you are a true believer, and probably like him, have never had to negotiate anything complex in your life. It wasn't a negotiation, it was a capitulation, dressed up for the gullible as a great victory. It will unravel.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    M&S warns of "significant food waste across the sector, reductions in range and availability, and inflationary pressures."

    Higher prices, less choice and needless waste becoming the hallmarks of Brexit. Precisely the opposite of what was promised. ~AA


    https://news.sky.com/story/m-s-warns-of-price-pressure-and-less-choice-after-brexit-import-rules-take-effect-12400723
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "As of last week, 56% of Britons had noticed food shortages in their local shops/supermarkets. This had risen from 45% in mid August, and 36% in late July"

    Lies. All lies !!!*

    *according to the PB brain trust...

    I’ve noticed a shortage of bottled water in Waitrose, but nothing else missing in the 4 or 5 supermarkets I’ve visited

    So I’m one of the 56%
    Water isn't food.

    So you're not the 56%.
    So the question actually defined what food is? I suspect most people, whilst understanding at some level that water isn't food, would consider that a 'food shortage' if asked. Indeed many of the photos posted over the last few weeks both here and elsewhere showing 'food shortages' have actually been of empty water bottle shelves.
    It is obvious to most that food and water are different things which is why YouGov focussed on food.

    Plus there's no real water shortage if you have a tap.
    In which case I hope you will be picking up those posting pictures of empty fizzy water shelves.

    As an aside, anyone using Waitrose as an example for anything - at least the ones I use - really hasn't a leg to stand on. Waitrose have regularly had empty shelves at their stores for years - since long before Brexit or covid or anything else was ever imagined. I do like the stuff they have but compared to any of the other big supermarkets their ability to keep stock on the shelves is absolutely dire. Since RP is in the business I would love to know if Waitrose follow a different model to the other supermarkets which makes them more prone to shortages. And I mean before all the current stuff.
    I think it is simply volume, which makes their supply chain a little more vulnerable than some of the larger chains that can spread shortages/surpluses over a greater number of stores .
    That makes sense. And is also a rather more reassuring than just bad management. I do like Waitrose in many ways but it has always been the case that if we are shopping there we are already accepting a further trip to one of the other supermarkets to get what they were missing.
  • Scott_xP said:

    You won't get through to Philip. He is a true "Boris" believer and ludicrously believes that Johnson is the best negotiator since Henry Kissinger. Nothing you can say will divert him from that belief set.

    Nah, he's just a troll
    I don't think so. I think he believes the things he says. They are just a little confused.
  • TOPPING said:

    Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.

    Tap water around here is utterly minging.

    Some days it comes with a foam.
    Why not just either have a filter fitted or use a filter jug?
    We tried, it still feels mingin'.
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