Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
If it remains at the current level why would that overload the NHS?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 48m I think we can reliably take it that whoever said this has not done a single calculation of anything they are talking about.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Can we post photos now? Here’s my view this minute at Lake Maggiore
Are you in Locarno?
Beautiful town - Stresa and Isola Bella gorgeous.
We stayed at the Palma au Lac - probably a notch down from your usual standards. The Maitre D' at dinner spoke seven languages fluently - my attempts at German and Italian (at which I thought I was reasonable) were politely but firmly rebuffed in favour of an English which suggested a proper education.
Switzerland was of course very expensive but not for everything - we found a beautiful tablecloth much cheaper than in England.
Ascona. Was in Locarno last night
I’m not poor but I am very glad I’m not paying for this. Incredibly pricey. Borderline obscene
The Swiss must regard every other nation as a budget destination
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery.
There was an interesting documentary done on this many years ago by C4. They did blind tastings with chilled tap water v chilled bottled water and the result was no-one could consistently tell the difference, including those folk like TSE who said their tap water was "minging". They also carried out microbial and mineral analysis and concluded tap water is considerably safer. The best/safest water to drink anywhere in the UK is through a filter from you tap and refrigerate. If you want it sparkling get a sodastream.
You point "why anyone is buying bottled water in the UK is a mystery" is not entirely true. The answer is the same as to why some people believe Boris Johnson is a good PM. Gullibility.
I buy bottled water if I'm out and about and need water. I have water bottles I take, but I drink a lot, and often run out. They're a life saver on long car journeys, and far better than coke/fanta/soft drinks. Also when walking, I'll sometimes refill my Platypus from bottled water bought in shops.
Bottled water has a use; I just cannot understand people who live on it. They must be the same sort of idiotlovely fellow who buy Apple phones every year ...
Yep. On a long car journey in warm temperatures you can get through a lot of water, and its best to avoid paying €€€s for a bottle at some motorway filling station. So I usually start my journey with a case of Pellegrino and work through it on route, filling the spaces with wine to bring home. Ferrying bottles of Pellegrino all the way back to Italy does seem a bit strange but it does save money.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 1h *If* this is correct, and *if* it happens, this will mean that the Government will not have prioritized keeping schools open and will have made trade offs against keeping schools open.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
If it remains at the current level why would that overload the NHS?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 48m I think we can reliably take it that whoever said this has not done a single calculation of anything they are talking about.
Or indeed looked at what happened in Wales last year…
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Also hoping, and its probably a forlorne hope that government has learned its lesson, you can not do 'circuit braker lockdowns'' or indeed any relaxation in the autumn, when the weather is changing and getting colder and less sunlight, the underlying rate of transition is increasing. any restrictions imposed need to stay there till the spring.
as things stand, every day there is less sun light and colder, pusing up R, meanwhile everyday some more people are getting infected and then building up antibodies, these 2 changes, to some extent cancel each other out, and R stays near 1, not exactly 1 but near, with cases rising slowly, but it seems manageably. if we lockdown in October, then they come wildly out of balance, and then if things are opened up, we will get a big wave, like last year, and hay presto another lockdown.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
From a deeply cynical POV I don't expect another lockdown, at least in October.
The government would be under pressure bring back furlough and the UC uplift, I suspect the guidance from the government would be don't be idiots, get vaccinated and be careful.
Sort of on topic, I am just savouring a pack of cherries grown in Aberdeenshire that I bought in M&S. They are superb. Cherries in September must be something special.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
I’m not poor but I am very glad I’m not paying for this. Incredibly pricey. Borderline obscene
The Swiss must regard every other nation as a budget destination
Yes, we visited Ascona in the morning - had an excellent lunch by the water.
Very good network of ferries across the lake - I remember on Wednesday it was market day in one of the Italian towns and the ferry was full of Swiss travelling down to take advantage of the cheap goods (the Swiss Franc was as strong against the Euro as every other currency).
I went to Stresa and stood in the room where the British and French signed the "Stresa Front" with Mussolini - might have prevented WW2 though probably not. We forget the Italians were briefly anti-German after the first Nazi attempt to take power in Austria in 1934.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 1h *If* this is correct, and *if* it happens, this will mean that the Government will not have prioritized keeping schools open and will have made trade offs against keeping schools open.
Noooooo, don't sacrifice kids education again, its not there fault,
If we need to then put unvaccinated patients in a tent in the car parks of hospitalises, but don't shut the schools agene
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
True. But how long before looking at hospitalisations morphs into just looking at case numbers?
From a deeply cynical POV I don't expect another lockdown, at least in October.
The government would be under pressure bring back furlough and the UC uplift, I suspect the guidance from the government would be don't be idiots, get vaccinated and be careful.
Good point. No way the treasury will agree more furlough. But I think this "source" is only talking a two week circuit breaker type thing which will be useless and not obeyed frankly.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
Indeed. Another lockdown would see mass civil disobedience. Few people I know would obey
Yet there would be a lot of support of it as we've seen, civil disobedience notwithstanding.
I don't see it myself unless, as the efficacy of the double vaccine declines, more people become infected more seriously.
I'm more concerned now than at any time since early March 2020 - if the protection I have from my double vaccination fades after x months, I'd like a booster before x. In effect, we'd be putting more unvaccinated people at the mercy of Delta or any new variant just a winter starts.
Liz Kendell's turn on R4 this morning was just embarrassing. Completely devoid of ideas or proposals other than vacuous nonsense about needing to have a proper plan for social care.
Labour remain in serious trouble as an opposition.
Frankly, no.
There's a political angle to this - let's say Labour has a match-winning idea. Why reveal it so the Conservatives can steal it? I'd expect the Party Conference to be the venue where this kind of policy announcement happens rather than on Monday morning on the Today programme if I'm being honest.
In any case, Labour can just sit back and allow the Conservatives to look divided and divisive.
Trying desperately to somehow spin this as an anti-Labour thing just doesn't work - it's a fair point the social care crisis didn't begin last Thursday but and let's be honest, Labour has not been in Government since 2010.
Yet, on the other hand you can argue that Labour should be beginning to at least look vaguely like a government in waiting as Johnson unravels instead of looking like they haven't a clue what they will do if they ever get near office in this decade.
Tories divided? Labour’s last leader has been expelled, rumoured to be running as an Indy, the centrists spend half their life moaning about the lefties & vice versa.
I think they hate each other more than they do the Tories
He has not been expelled and is still a party member. He has ,however, been denied the Labour Whip.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 1h *If* this is correct, and *if* it happens, this will mean that the Government will not have prioritized keeping schools open and will have made trade offs against keeping schools open.
Noooooo, don't sacrifice kids education again, its not there fault,
If we need to then put unvaccinated patients in a tent in the car parks of hospitalises, but don't shut the schools agene
Indeed. This is my older daughter’s GCSE year. She has already suffered psychologically, quite badly, from extended lockdowns. Her relationship with her Mum is roiled - beyond normal teenageness
She’s loved the unlockdown, she slowly blossoms again. She is happy to be jabbed. She’s clever
Why the fucking fucking fuck should she suffer a moment longer because some fat old people will die 6 months early, or idiot anti-vaxxers are blocking the hospitals?
Let the unjabbed die in their homes. Weed out the idiots. Let Darwin prevail
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
True. But how long before looking at hospitalisations morphs into just looking at case numbers?
If as widely expected mass testing and free testing start to be wound down, we won’t be looking at (meaningful) case data any more, as there won’t be any.
Liz Kendell's turn on R4 this morning was just embarrassing. Completely devoid of ideas or proposals other than vacuous nonsense about needing to have a proper plan for social care.
Labour remain in serious trouble as an opposition.
Frankly, no.
There's a political angle to this - let's say Labour has a match-winning idea. Why reveal it so the Conservatives can steal it? I'd expect the Party Conference to be the venue where this kind of policy announcement happens rather than on Monday morning on the Today programme if I'm being honest.
In any case, Labour can just sit back and allow the Conservatives to look divided and divisive.
Trying desperately to somehow spin this as an anti-Labour thing just doesn't work - it's a fair point the social care crisis didn't begin last Thursday but and let's be honest, Labour has not been in Government since 2010.
Yet, on the other hand you can argue that Labour should be beginning to at least look vaguely like a government in waiting as Johnson unravels instead of looking like they haven't a clue what they will do if they ever get near office in this decade.
Tories divided? Labour’s last leader has been expelled, rumoured to be running as an Indy, the centrists spend half their life moaning about the lefties & vice versa.
I think they hate each other more than they do the Tories
He has not been expelled and is still a party member. He has ,however, been denied the Labour Whip.
After the thrashing the Tories gave him, I’m sure he can cope without Labour’s whip.
£5.6bn for the NHS announced, radio silence on the NI rise. I don't think the government has the votes to get it through parliament. They were probably counting on Labour votes in favour and now don't know what to do.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
True. But how long before looking at hospitalisations morphs into just looking at case numbers?
I'd argue strongly against it just being on case numbers.
(There are circumstances where case numbers matter, e.g. on a new variant that is more resistant to the vaccines, but that is unlikely IMO, and the reports are of a firebreak, which does not match that).
Would you agree that there's a level of hospitalisations where a firebreak or full lockdown would become necessary? If you do, then planning for it might be wise. And it's not often that this government is wise ...
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
True. But how long before looking at hospitalisations morphs into just looking at case numbers?
If as widely expected mass testing and free testing start to be wound down, we won’t be looking at (meaningful) case data any more, as there won’t be any.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
This story essentially tells us the Government have contingency plans. That’s it. Also the first paragraph makes zero sense. While not optimal at the moment for the NHS it’s not overwhelmed by any measure. Admissions are starting to show a very slight decline but are essentially flat. While everything could go pear shaped very quickly, this source sounds like Michie or Reicher, although they’re not shy about being on the record TBF.
On the M&S meeting it isn't a surprise. The current version of import/export regulations are a horror show and they're getting a lot tighter on the 1st October and again on the 1st January. It isn't just finished foodstuffs that is the problem it is the components and ingredients that supply products made in Britain by British manufacturers.
On an October lockdown, Oh Dear God. But if pox numbers are sustained this high now, and we have both crap weather and the school superspreader farms reopened who knows where it goes.
- GPT-4 is coming, but improved Codex is the focus - The next Codex release will be significant - GPT-4 will have a similar model size but better trained - DALL-E will become public - They bet that multi-modal models will beat pure text models on text generation
£5.6bn for the NHS announced, radio silence on the NI rise. I don't think the government has the votes to get it through parliament. They were probably counting on Labour votes in favour and now don't know what to do.
On the M&S meeting it isn't a surprise. The current version of import/export regulations are a horror show and they're getting a lot tighter on the 1st October and again on the 1st January. It isn't just finished foodstuffs that is the problem it is the components and ingredients that supply products made in Britain by British manufacturers.
On an October lockdown, Oh Dear God. But if pox numbers are sustained this high now, and we have both crap weather and the school superspreader farms reopened who knows where it goes.
Another lockdown will also utterly screw so much of the economy AGAIN
Hospitality, entertainment, everything. This time much will go under forever
£5.6bn for the NHS announced, radio silence on the NI rise. I don't think the government has the votes to get it through parliament. They were probably counting on Labour votes in favour and now don't know what to do.
I don't think that's quite right. Labour would never have voted in favour, or abstained, on an NI rise. They may support, or at least abstain on, an income tax rise, though. I suspect Boris is not very in touch with his backbenchers, and just thought any rebellion would be tiny. I think he was wrong.
£5.6bn for the NHS announced, radio silence on the NI rise. I don't think the government has the votes to get it through parliament. They were probably counting on Labour votes in favour and now don't know what to do.
I don't think that's quite right. Labour would never have voted in favour, or abstained, on an NI rise. They may support, or at least abstain on, an income tax rise, though. I suspect Boris is not very in touch with his backbenchers, and just thought any rebellion would be tiny. I think he was wrong.
He may do campaigning but we know he sure doesn’t do politics
Just heard on the bbc, half the adult social care budget goes on non-old age disability care.
Having seen the care cost breakdown for my 32 year old brother, I can understand.
It’s seriously expensive.
It’s fantastic that we, as a society, agree to pool the financial risk of parents/families having a severely disabled child, but we also should have a debate about preventing more of these births.
It’s a horrible debate to have, but the costs are just so enormous. I think we need to do far more discouraging consanguineous marriage, for example.
That's all true, but I suspect it's all bound up in the eugenics vibe of the 1930s and therefore taboo.
However, gene editing may not be taboo so there's a possible avenue for exploration there.
As I've said, Surrey County Council budgeted for £372 million spend on Adult Social Care in 2019-20 out of a total budget of about £1 billion.
That isn't just about "care" in terms of homes and care packages. As @ping states, care can involve lifelong care or long-term care for adults with disabilities or other issues.
The unpalatable truth is not so long ago many children with severe disabilities would not have survived but now they do and whatever you think about the quality of life (and that's a debate for serious people), the fact remains we have a duty to those individuals to do what we can to help and support them but that comes at a cost whether it be human, technological or pharmaceutical.
On the M&S meeting it isn't a surprise. The current version of import/export regulations are a horror show and they're getting a lot tighter on the 1st October and again on the 1st January. It isn't just finished foodstuffs that is the problem it is the components and ingredients that supply products made in Britain by British manufacturers.
On an October lockdown, Oh Dear God. But if pox numbers are sustained this high now, and we have both crap weather and the school superspreader farms reopened who knows where it goes.
I’m not sure where this idea that they’re high comes from - at least compared to the modelling used for the 19 July unlock.
Look, it could go pear shaped very quickly, but I think there’s a lot of overanalysing of a single anonymous i source quoted in a rather vague and almost contradictory article going on tonight.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
It’s a good thing and entirely sensible to make contingency plans. It was a truly appalling oversight that they failed to do so this time last year and was one of many reasons for the January lockdown (and was pretty much the sole reason for the exam debacle).
I am not sure that leaking them in the press to stoke panic is wise. That’s flipping from one extreme to another.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
I must say that my first day back at work was a gloomy one.
1) a colleague double vaxxed in January off with covid, and quite unwell.
2) Another at work though her husband and child are off with covid. She had a positive LFT, but 2 negative PCR. Her husband was double vaxxed, 2nd dose in June. No one seems to know what isolation policy to follow. Another colleague positive on PCR after negative on LFT, but also back at work.
3) Press gangs out for staff, depleting all non covid areas to feed the beast that is covid ICU, which now is at 40% of the level it was in February. Attempts to keep one of our 3 hospitals covid free for cancer patients etc have failed, due to numbers and severity of cases. Operating lists going down like nine-pins due to lack of beds, ICU, theatre staff and anaesthetists.
Everyone fed up, morale through the floor, as no one wants to go through a further crisis wave. Yet outside the world carries on as if covid was solved, with the shops, pubs and festivals as per normal.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
This story essentially tells us the Government have contingency plans. That’s it. Also the first paragraph makes zero sense. While not optimal at the moment for the NHS it’s not overwhelmed by any measure. Admissions are starting to show a very slight decline but are essentially flat. While everything could go pear shaped very quickly, this source sounds like Michie or Reicher, although they’re not shy about being on the record TBF.
Yup.
I think the peak for Covid-19 season will be January time.
The perfect mix people making up for the last Christmas and those become superspreader events, especially as you stay/visit with elderly family members.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 1h *If* this is correct, and *if* it happens, this will mean that the Government will not have prioritized keeping schools open and will have made trade offs against keeping schools open.
Noooooo, don't sacrifice kids education again, its not there fault,
If we need to then put unvaccinated patients in a tent in the car parks of hospitalises, but don't shut the schools agene
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
Why? I have been reassured by the PB health experts that the pandemic is over and the threat is over and that anyone not rubbing up against someone's armpit down the pub is hysterical.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
It’s a good thing and entirely sensible to make contingency plans. It was a truly appalling oversight that they failed to do so this time last year and was one of many reasons for the January lockdown (and was pretty much the sole reason for the exam debacle).
I am not sure that leaking them in the press to stoke panic is wise. That’s flipping from one extreme to another.
It's a good thing they are planning for every scenario. Ruling out further restrictions at this point would not be wise.
It’s a good thing and entirely sensible to make contingency plans. It was a truly appalling oversight that they failed to do so this time last year and was one of many reasons for the January lockdown (and was pretty much the sole reason for the exam debacle).
I am not sure that leaking them in the press to stoke panic is wise. That’s flipping from one extreme to another.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
I must say that my first day back at work was a gloomy one.
1) a colleague double vaxxed in January off with covid, and quite unwell.
2) Another at work though her husband and child are off with covid. She had a positive LFT, but 2 negative PCR. Her husband was double vaxxed, 2nd dose in June. No one seems to know what isolation policy to follow. Another colleague positive on PCR after negative on LFT, but also back at work.
3) Press gangs out for staff, depleting all non covid areas to feed the beast that is covid ICU, which now is at 40% of the level it was in February. Attempts to keep one of our 3 hospitals covid free for cancer patients etc have failed, due to numbers and severity of cases. Operating lists going down like nine-pins due to lack of beds, ICU, theatre staff and anaesthetists.
Everyone fed up, morale through the floor, as no one wants to go through a further crisis wave. Yet outside the world carries on as if covid was solved, with the shops, pubs and festivals as per normal.
Thanks for the reality check from the front line. There is a sense of deja vu. At this time last year, maybe a bit earlier, many were confident that the pandemic was over and no restrictions would ever be needed again. Forget the case numbers, but on the current trends in hospitalisations and deaths, it looks like a close call to me. Let's hope that the vaccinations, while not stopping transmission, continue to protect against very serious illness.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
To be honest, with Delta, I cannot see much making a difference. Closing schools, universities, nightclubs, sporting events etc may take it down a little, but I cannot see another January style lockdown happening.
FFP3 for me again at the footy on Saturday. I don't care if I am the only one there in a mask.
Politics For All @PoliticsForAlI · 1h | BREAKING: The Government is ‘planning an October lockdown’ should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS,
If it remains at the current level why would that overload the NHS?
People can't accuse the Govt. of not planning.
But as others have said - fuck off. The unvaccinated can be treated on trolleys in corridors.....
All well and good. But a big part of the concern is that the scale of cases combined with modest vaccine escape will mean high number of fully vaccinated waiting on your trolleys too.
Personally I doubt a “lockdown” as we experienced before, on pain of criminal sanction. But the pressure big employers have been exerting in recent weeks to return on public transport to offices with all social distancing measures removed? Yeah that’s gone.
Nightclubs with or without vax passports? Cheerio.
All this worry about covid meltdown....but still no decision, let alone jabbing, of oldies.
We should have done kids over summer hols, and no jabbering, just jabbing the oldies now.
We are starting with our staff at our NHS Trust around the 20th September. Pfizer boosters along with flu jabs for all our 11,000 or so staff who want it.
I would expect vulnerable people and 80 plus will start around a similar time, maybe begining of October.
All this worry about covid meltdown....but still no decision, let alone jabbing, of oldies.
We should have done kids over summer hols, and no jabbering, just jabbing the oldies now.
We are starting with our staff at our NHS Trust around the 20th September. Pfizer boosters along with flu jabs for all our 11,000 or so staff who want it.
I would expect vulnerable people and 80 plus will start around a similar time, maybe begining of October.
I’m just gonna emigrate. Can’t do another lockdown. Can’t
Unless there is a definite vaccine escaping variant (which there will not be by autumn half term imho) then I am not doing it. Obviously if they shut the pubs I wont be able to go to them, but i will continue to have people at the house and so on.
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The reports say that the trigger would be hospitalisations. That's more than 'a load of 15 year olds have mild covid".
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
I must say that my first day back at work was a gloomy one.
1) a colleague double vaxxed in January off with covid, and quite unwell.
2) Another at work though her husband and child are off with covid. She had a positive LFT, but 2 negative PCR. Her husband was double vaxxed, 2nd dose in June. No one seems to know what isolation policy to follow. Another colleague positive on PCR after negative on LFT, but also back at work.
3) Press gangs out for staff, depleting all non covid areas to feed the beast that is covid ICU, which now is at 40% of the level it was in February. Attempts to keep one of our 3 hospitals covid free for cancer patients etc have failed, due to numbers and severity of cases. Operating lists going down like nine-pins due to lack of beds, ICU, theatre staff and anaesthetists.
Everyone fed up, morale through the floor, as no one wants to go through a further crisis wave. Yet outside the world carries on as if covid was solved, with the shops, pubs and festivals as per normal.
Firstly - thanks for all you and the rest of the team have done and continue to do.
My wife and I are still always masked in shops etc and are avoiding public transport - but it is clear that mask wearing is dropping away fast.
I was chatting with my team today and 50% of them said they don't wear masks now because of the way they feel people look at them for wearing them still.
I on the other hand couldn't care less if people think I am weird for wearing a mask - i'm certainly not hurting anyone by doing so
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I am quite enjoying it TBH. Won’t go back to 5 days a week but 2 or 3 is ace. I was an early returner anyway as being at home was doing my head in.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
To be honest, with Delta, I cannot see much making a difference. Closing schools, universities, nightclubs, sporting events etc may take it down a little, but I cannot see another January style lockdown happening.
FFP3 for me again at the footy on Saturday. I don't care if I am the only one there in a mask.
Standard kit for Middlesbrough away.
In the past some Newcastle fans have been refused entry after turning up in Hazmat suits and face masks. How times have changed.
All this worry about covid meltdown....but still no decision, let alone jabbing, of oldies.
We should have done kids over summer hols, and no jabbering, just jabbing the oldies now.
We are starting with our staff at our NHS Trust around the 20th September. Pfizer boosters along with flu jabs for all our 11,000 or so staff who want it.
I would expect vulnerable people and 80 plus will start around a similar time, maybe begining of October.
Month wasted.
September would around 6 months since the 1st cohort had their second jabs around March time. For example I had my second jab on the 11th March.
They seem to think 6 months is around the time boosters might be needed so that would explain why.
I fully agree on the kids, they should have been done but I get why it's a polarising subject.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
To be honest, with Delta, I cannot see much making a difference. Closing schools, universities, nightclubs, sporting events etc may take it down a little, but I cannot see another January style lockdown happening.
FFP3 for me again at the footy on Saturday. I don't care if I am the only one there in a mask.
First impressions of my whizz through France is that they’ve mostly given up, where there aren’t enforced restrictions like in town centres, whereas in Germany compliance with masks, distancing, online registering and the rest seems still near universal. Whether there is any remaining value in the ‘ordinary’ precautions might become clear from comparing the German experience to others.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Badoit and San Pellegrino have a nice volcanic taste.
All British mineral water tastes like nothing and is a waste of money.
Nonsense
Highland springs tastes different to buxton which tastes different to malvern
The best is that posh one, Hildon, tho I do confess that might be because it is served in expensive places and in expensive bottles. We are all susceptible to branding
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
I’ve been under pressure to go back once school holidays end. As a Category 6 person I’ve stuck my neck out and said no, on basis of Scotland data and Israel’s experience, expecting a sudden reversal and everyone back to WFH in short order anyway. I thought I’d be causing a bit of controversy by saying this but seems I’ve been atypically prescient. Back to work with no distancing measures will be gone by the end of the month I think.
From a uni perspective we have lots of ongoing mitigation as we return to much more student contact. For instance students are expected to wear masks in lectures, and when moving around buildings. Staff are allowed to remove masks when giving lectures. Most of our space has pretty good ventilation which is good, but undoubtedly we are in for a tough period. I do think much more needs to be made of the relative rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in ICU. You’d hope it might persuade a few more of the hesitant. I want to call them idiots, but I understand not everyone shares my (scientific) world view. I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
Mrs Stodge has been in the office today - on her own.
Her manager has asked the team to "do at least two days a week in the office" but according to Mrs Stodge, that will be more honoured in the breach than the observance.
For the professional administrative worker, working from home, whether called hybrid, flexible or remote is here to stay.
For those who have to go to their work or cannot work at home, of course the reality is rather different.
This romanianCanadian british lass can play a bit...won first set.
On her at 100s for the event. Big big star about to erupt, I think. Spoty possible also.
Bish bash bosh.....
OK, I don’t follow tennis nearly as closely as I do cricket. But for quite a few years before they stepped onto the adult Circuit there were whispers about a talented pair of brothers from Scotland who might just be sensational. Similarly Laura Robson was mentioned as one to watch, and just seemed to be coming good when injury ruined her career.
But never have I even heard the whisper of Raducanu. She just seems to have emerged from nowhere. At the same time, she’s clearly a brilliant player.
Is it because I haven’t been paying attention or did she really fly under the radar to a quite remarkable extent?
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
I do wish people wouldn't use the word lockdown when it doesn't mean lockdown.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
If there are a NHS crashing number of cases the government will introduce social distancing and masks, lockdown will be the last mitigation.
Indeed I would expect us to go back to Stage 3 first - eg mandatory table service and masks in pubs
Plus work from home requests.
I'm back in the office for the first time on Monday but we've planned for WFH happening between November and February.
I'm beginning to suspect I will not be back in office this year - I could if I was of a mind to - but I see no upside in 120 mins a day in a petri dish - err on a train
To be honest I can see me kicking this into the long grass and rescheduling the return to the office into the New Year.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
Meanwhile London had its busiest rush hour since March 2020 today.
If England does this month what Scotland has in the last month, we’ll be at almost 150k cases a day by not long after harvest festival.
Comments
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
48m
I think we can reliably take it that whoever said this has not done a single calculation of anything they are talking about.
I’m not poor but I am very glad I’m not paying for this. Incredibly pricey. Borderline obscene
The Swiss must regard every other nation as a budget destination
Dr Duncan Robertson
@Dr_D_Robertson
·
1h
*If* this is correct, and *if* it happens, this will mean that the Government will not have prioritized keeping schools open and will have made trade offs against keeping schools open.
The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.
A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the Sage source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.
“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he said.
“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”
It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a “firebreak” lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Also hoping, and its probably a forlorne hope that government has learned its lesson, you can not do 'circuit braker lockdowns'' or indeed any relaxation in the autumn, when the weather is changing and getting colder and less sunlight, the underlying rate of transition is increasing. any restrictions imposed need to stay there till the spring.
as things stand, every day there is less sun light and colder, pusing up R, meanwhile everyday some more people are getting infected and then building up antibodies, these 2 changes, to some extent cancel each other out, and R stays near 1, not exactly 1 but near, with cases rising slowly, but it seems manageably. if we lockdown in October, then they come wildly out of balance, and then if things are opened up, we will get a big wave, like last year, and hay presto another lockdown.
Frank Zappa and the Mothers
Were at the best place around
But some stupid with a flare gun
Burned the place to the ground
We have vaccinated the vulnerable and the disease is now endemic. We have to live with it. This is getting crazy.
Closing society yet again because a load of 15 year olds have mild covid is ridiculous and one can only assume Lillico is correct and this "source" has no idea what they are talking about.
The government would be under pressure bring back furlough and the UC uplift, I suspect the guidance from the government would be don't be idiots, get vaccinated and be careful.
Personally, I'm glad the government is making plans, as there is a non-negligible chance it will happen, and better if they're prepared for it. But I hope the plans aren't needed.
Very good network of ferries across the lake - I remember on Wednesday it was market day in one of the Italian towns and the ferry was full of Swiss travelling down to take advantage of the cheap goods (the Swiss Franc was as strong against the Euro as every other currency).
I went to Stresa and stood in the room where the British and French signed the "Stresa Front" with Mussolini - might have prevented WW2 though probably not. We forget the Italians were briefly anti-German after the first Nazi attempt to take power in Austria in 1934.
But as others have said - fuck off. The unvaccinated can be treated on trolleys in corridors.....
If we need to then put unvaccinated patients in a tent in the car parks of hospitalises, but don't shut the schools agene
I don't see it myself unless, as the efficacy of the double vaccine declines, more people become infected more seriously.
I'm more concerned now than at any time since early March 2020 - if the protection I have from my double vaccination fades after x months, I'd like a booster before x. In effect, we'd be putting more unvaccinated people at the mercy of Delta or any new variant just a winter starts.
She’s loved the unlockdown, she slowly blossoms again. She is happy to be jabbed. She’s clever
Why the fucking fucking fuck should she suffer a moment longer because some fat old people will die 6 months early, or idiot anti-vaxxers are blocking the hospitals?
Let the unjabbed die in their homes. Weed out the idiots. Let Darwin prevail
(There are circumstances where case numbers matter, e.g. on a new variant that is more resistant to the vaccines, but that is unlikely IMO, and the reports are of a firebreak, which does not match that).
Would you agree that there's a level of hospitalisations where a firebreak or full lockdown would become necessary? If you do, then planning for it might be wise. And it's not often that this government is wise ...
Besides, I reckon this won't happen.
On an October lockdown, Oh Dear God. But if pox numbers are sustained this high now, and we have both crap weather and the school superspreader farms reopened who knows where it goes.
Interesting.
Takeaways:
- GPT-4 is coming, but improved Codex is the focus
- The next Codex release will be significant
- GPT-4 will have a similar model size but better trained
- DALL-E will become public
- They bet that multi-modal models will beat pure text models on text generation
https://twitter.com/EmilWallner/status/1434883265849085955?s=19
Hospitality, entertainment, everything. This time much will go under forever
Look, it could go pear shaped very quickly, but I think there’s a lot of overanalysing of a single anonymous i source quoted in a rather vague and almost contradictory article going on tonight.
I know the Independent want to sell papers but they should be responsible about their language too.
I am not sure that leaking them in the press to stoke panic is wise. That’s flipping from one extreme to another.
1) a colleague double vaxxed in January off with covid, and quite unwell.
2) Another at work though her husband and child are off with covid. She had a positive LFT, but 2 negative PCR. Her husband was double vaxxed, 2nd dose in June. No one seems to know what isolation policy to follow. Another colleague positive on PCR after negative on LFT, but also back at work.
3) Press gangs out for staff, depleting all non covid areas to feed the beast that is covid ICU, which now is at 40% of the level it was in February. Attempts to keep one of our 3 hospitals covid free for cancer patients etc have failed, due to numbers and severity of cases. Operating lists going down like nine-pins due to lack of beds, ICU, theatre staff and anaesthetists.
Everyone fed up, morale through the floor, as no one wants to go through a further crisis wave. Yet outside the world carries on as if covid was solved, with the shops, pubs and festivals as per normal.
"modelling by Cambridge University suggests 17 million people in England have been infected, which is about three in 10 of the population"
This is a piece of gen I've been struggling to find, so I am very pleased to have read this. It would of course be better if the number was larger.
I think the peak for Covid-19 season will be January time.
The perfect mix people making up for the last Christmas and those become superspreader events, especially as you stay/visit with elderly family members.
This Government is a pensioners cartel.
Oh sorry, was that not what you meant?
romanianCanadianbritish lass can play a bit...won first set.We should have done kids over summer hols, and no jabbering, just jabbing the oldies now.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1434897524029116422?s=21
FFP3 for me again at the footy on Saturday. I don't care if I am the only one there in a mask.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/06/uk-and-eu-extend-post-brexit-grace-period-over-northern-ireland-protocol
Personally I doubt a “lockdown” as we experienced before, on pain of criminal sanction. But the pressure big employers have been exerting in recent weeks to return on public transport to offices with all social distancing measures removed? Yeah that’s gone.
Nightclubs with or without vax passports? Cheerio.
Will be an interesting few weeks.
I would expect vulnerable people and 80 plus will start around a similar time, maybe begining of October.
My wife and I are still always masked in shops etc and are avoiding public transport - but it is clear that mask wearing is dropping away fast.
I was chatting with my team today and 50% of them said they don't wear masks now because of the way they feel people look at them for wearing them still.
I on the other hand couldn't care less if people think I am weird for wearing a mask - i'm certainly not hurting anyone by doing so
In the past some Newcastle fans have been refused entry after turning up in Hazmat suits and face masks. How times have changed.
They seem to think 6 months is around the time boosters might be needed so that would explain why.
I fully agree on the kids, they should have been done but I get why it's a polarising subject.
I've already let two people work from home until the new year (one four months pregnant and the other her partner has long covid and kids, so it is easier for her to stay at home.)
I wonder if that is Susan Michie or Stephen Reicher?
I have a lot of sympathy for hospital staff right now. I suspect that usually, like universities, the summer is a bit of an easier time, and allows a reset. That’s probably not happening in too many hospitals. This is going to be a tough winter. That said, I just dont think a lockdown is the answer, mainly because delta is just too infectious. The answer is vaccination, and tbh every day at the moment 30,000 people (probably more) are gaining immunity the hard way. Some of these are vaccinated and getting a top up, nut many are probably not.
Her manager has asked the team to "do at least two days a week in the office" but according to Mrs Stodge, that will be more honoured in the breach than the observance.
For the professional administrative worker, working from home, whether called hybrid, flexible or remote is here to stay.
For those who have to go to their work or cannot work at home, of course the reality is rather different.
But never have I even heard the whisper of Raducanu. She just seems to have emerged from nowhere. At the same time, she’s clearly a brilliant player.
Is it because I haven’t been paying attention or did she really fly under the radar to a quite remarkable extent?