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The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes – politicalbetting.com

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  • Chris said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    From the Telegraph, no less:



    How Europe is pulling ahead of Britain in the great Covid race

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/how-europe-is-pulling-ahead-of-britain-in-the-great-covid-race/ar-AANQyMT?ocid=msedgntp

    Europe joined the vaccine race late, but the pace at which jabs have been going into arms in recent months has been staggering. France is now fractionally ahead of us on single jabs, while Finland, Denmark, Ireland, Spain and Portugal now all have a significantly greater proportion of their citizens fully vaccinated.

    Europe has also been quicker to start vaccinating its teenagers. In France, Spain and Italy, more than half of those aged 12 to 18 are already vaccinated, for example.

    Aren’t they just making the same point twice

    All citizens inc kids

    Kid specifically

    Its vaccination rates per year group which count.

    In particular the older year groups.

    Vaccinating kids doesn't stop the hospitals filling up with unvaccinated oldies.
    Obviously it does if it reduces transmission.

    Of course we've long been familiar with anti-vaccine campaigners arguing that people should refuse vaccination on the basis of a naive calculation of narrow self-interest (which often involves assuming the majority will behave in a less short-sighted way). The disturbing thing is the extent to which this bone-headed viewpoint seems to have become prevalent.
    Everyone is going to come into contact with Delta sooner or later.

    Reducing transmission rates delays but does not stop that.

    It is the vaccination rates among the high risk groups which will affect the numbers hospitalised.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/johnson-s-problems-are-piling-up

    In focus groups, voters complain they are tiring of Johnson and see him as a ‘one-trick pony’ Brexiteer.

    Some have much more stamina than others. All suffer from fatigue eventually.
  • dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Within the body of the INSA poll last night, a fascinating split between the former FRG and GDR:

    Social Democrats: 25% | 21%
    Union CDU/CSU: 22% | 17%
    Greens: 18% | 15%
    Free Democrats: 14% | 10%
    Alternative for Germany: 10% | 15%
    Left: 5% | 10%

    Germany has been a unified state for over thirty years having been divided for forty-five. The differences in the political culture remain.

    The gender split (Men vs Women):

    Social Democrats: 23% | 25%
    Union CDU/CSU: 22% | 20%
    Greens: 16% | 18%
    Free Democrats: 16% | 10%
    Alternative for Germany: 12% | 10%
    Left: 6% | 7%

    I'm drawn to the big difference in the FDP vote but is there anything really surprising in that? Not sure.

    They are nothing like the difference in vote splits between Quebec rest of Canada. Nor, indeed, England and Scotland.
    I'm surprised the greens are as strong as 15% in the east TBH. That seems a bit off to me if the greens are only on 18% overall.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Dura_Ace said:

    Seems like on balance the "world beating" vaccine programme was just about as good as other countries.

    Shame about all the people here that have died

    It was only April when pb.com tories were blasting poleslaw into each other's faces at the thought of how bad the summer was going to be for covid in the EU compared to the UK.
    I do recall that. Not the most appetizing period on here.
  • Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.
  • Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.

    Yes. We've had some juicy F1 (and Indy!) races recently. I spent the first session of qualifying yesterday agog at how well the Williams was. And the final minutes of Q3 shouting expletives at the TV.

    Pretty much as Mr Horner now is...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,556

    Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.

    I've got a confession.

    I think George Russell is a real talent, but something's always bothered me about him. Yesterday I realised what it was: his face. He really needs some mascara, and would look brilliant as a glam rocker.
  • kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Seems like on balance the "world beating" vaccine programme was just about as good as other countries.

    Shame about all the people here that have died

    It was only April when pb.com tories were blasting poleslaw into each other's faces at the thought of how bad the summer was going to be for covid in the EU compared to the UK.
    I do recall that. Not the most appetizing period on here.
    IIRC it was a response to people getting excited that Delta had arrived in the UK before other European countries.

    With wild predictions of the imminent collapse of the NHS and claims that the UK had uniquely become a breeding ground for variants.

    Alongside denial that Delta would eventually spread, as indeed it has, across the world.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited August 2021
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In Canada the opposition has now registered 10 consecutive poll leads over Justin Trudeau's party, some of them quite large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#Campaign_period

    Yes but these are rolling polls so I'm not sure how reliable they are.

    Mainstreet in particular is throwing out some extraordinary numbers for the Conservatives.

    I would certainly want to wait for a large-sample poll from Counsel or IPSOS but I do agree Trudeau's position has worsened since the campaign started but the Conservatives are still a way from a majority.
    It's odd how a number of pollsters haven't reported for a while, such as Angus Reid, Ipsos, Leger, Abacus. I look forward to their next surveys.

    The usual convention in Canada is that whichever party gets the most seats becomes the government, because they don't seem to like coalitions. But that may change this time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.

    F1 is not my speciality. However, I stand ready to crash on my way to the grid for the salary.
    Giz a job. I can do that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic -

    Forget about opinion polls, the recent Scottish elections are a mandate for the Scottish government to hold a Sindy ref. The UK government isn't obliged to grant one but they should because the case for it - the election result and the material change of circumstances (since 2014) of being involuntarily hauled out of the EU - is compelling.

    The UK government should also grant a vote out of self-interest. It would probably return another No to independence, which would kill it as a serious proposition for a long time. "As in a generation?" shouts a quick but shallow thinking heckler. Ho ho. But in fact yes. Another No ends this. The SNP would have to backburner it or face a loss of votes and influence. Either way it's off the table.

    As to whether a Sindy ref before 2025 is likely, the betting says yes, a probability of about 40%, and I agree with this. I think many pundits on here are underestimating the chances.

    Sorry, how does a probability of 40% indicate that something is "likely"? As it happens, I agree with you to the extent that I think that it is more likely than the markets are indicating but they are indicating probably not, no doubt for the reasons @HYUFD expounds repeatedly.
    Depends how you use the term "likely". To me it means something that has a very good chance of happening and 40% is certainly that. The alternative at 60% is more likely but the 40% chance is nevertheless likely, just not quite as likely.

    Eg, given there's been much war talk recently, I become Dura Ace and am sent on a mission with a 60/40 chance of coming back alive. Am I likely to die on that mission? I'd say I am. I'm even more likely to scrape through it but I'm still likely to die.
    I define likely as more probable than not. The idea that it covers things that are highly possibly but in probability, well, unlikely, is a bit of a new one for me.
    So "likely" has to be an odds on shot for you. A greater than 50% probability. Otherwise it's not likely. Fair enough, that's a good and clear def, but then there's no room when describing possible outcomes for terms such as "quite likely" or "more likely" or "likeliest".

    But anyway, we understand each other now, which has to be a plus. :smile:
    Taking @noneoftheabove's example I can see how you could use the phrase "most likely" for something that was not odds on but had a higher probability than the alternatives. So, in his example, you might say Man City are most likely to win the league among the teams in it but that is, in my opinion, different from saying that they are likely to do so.

    Anyway, we have probably bored everyone else stupid with this by now.
    That is how superlatives work generally, not a special feature of "likely." Presumably one of Snow White's 7 dwarves was the tallest of the lot. Doesn't mean he was tall.
    Illustrating the interesting linguistic trick of describing something that is very much not X as being the most X of a group whose other members are even less X.

    "Ivanka is the smartest of all of Trump's offspring."

    Going back to "likely", I'd say it needs to pass a threshold of probability - eg 20% - to get into the conversation. Eg, 1000 possible outcomes for something, all pretty remote, the highest probability one at 1%, I personally would baulk at describing that as the "most likely" outcome, I'd be going with least unlikely.

    But I claim no authority, moral or intellectual, on the matter.
  • The Government called it world beating, when it is not.

    They did a very good job - and I have said so on many occasions here and elsewhere. But they did over promise by calling it “world beating”, which is something they have a habit of doing. And that will be their downfall.

    The USP of this government is over promise and under deliver.

    If Labour had achieved what the Tories have achieved, they would be ridiculed by many here for over promising. As usual the standards are not consistent.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Has anyone found a single report in any paper from any broadcaster, today, noting that cases in England are now unambiguously falling - down on average over the past week?

    Are they? Guardian figures are 32406 (+348 on last week), hospitalisation 6942 (+467), deaths 133 (+29). I think hospitalisation is probably the best guide, since lots of people (including me) aren't routinely testing, just staying out of the way. Feels like a moderate upward trend at the moment.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.

    I'm on under 16.5 finishers. think Mr Dancer tipped that up and forecast looks bad all race. wanted to back under 4 sec winning margin in case they finish under safety car but all suspended now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Andy_JS said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In Canada the opposition has now registered 10 consecutive poll leads over Justin Trudeau's party, some of them quite large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#Campaign_period

    Yes but these are rolling polls so I'm not sure how reliable they are.

    Mainstreet in particular is throwing out some extraordinary numbers for the Conservatives.

    I would certainly want to wait for a large-sample poll from Counsel or IPSOS but I do agree Trudeau's position has worsened since the campaign started but the Conservatives are still a way from a majority.
    It's odd how a number of pollsters haven't reported for a while, such as Angus Reid, Ipsos, Leger, Abacus. I look forward to their next surveys.

    The usual convention in Canada is that whichever party gets the most seats becomes the government, because they don't seem to like coalitions. But that may change this time.
    If the Tories win most seats, but are some way from a majority, there won't be a rizla between their policies and what Trudeau would have done with a majority in practical terms. The facea will be different. Blacked up or no.
  • kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Seems like on balance the "world beating" vaccine programme was just about as good as other countries.

    Shame about all the people here that have died

    It was only April when pb.com tories were blasting poleslaw into each other's faces at the thought of how bad the summer was going to be for covid in the EU compared to the UK.
    I do recall that. Not the most appetizing period on here.
    Now they’re spinning their wheels. If they’d just said we were doing a good job and not had to try and put Europe down we would all be in a much better place.

    They’d certainly have got a lot more credit and I believe Johnson’s boost would have lasted longer
  • To the pub, goodbye
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,355

    Not going to lie.

    I'm positively tumescent at the prospect of watching this very wet Belgian Grand Prix.

    Hope we can avoid a 1998.

    I'm on under 16.5 finishers. think Mr Dancer tipped that up and forecast looks bad all race. wanted to back under 4 sec winning margin in case they finish under safety car but all suspended now.
    16.5? Is that where Hamilton smashes Verstappen’s car in pieces as usual but half of it still crosses the line?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In Canada the opposition has now registered 10 consecutive poll leads over Justin Trudeau's party, some of them quite large.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#Campaign_period

    Yes but these are rolling polls so I'm not sure how reliable they are.

    Mainstreet in particular is throwing out some extraordinary numbers for the Conservatives.

    I would certainly want to wait for a large-sample poll from Counsel or IPSOS but I do agree Trudeau's position has worsened since the campaign started but the Conservatives are still a way from a majority.
    It feels strange how unreliable rolling polls are, as the theory seems fairly sound. Say you poll 250 people a day and take a 4-day average. Some of those may be duff samples, but they'll only have a quarter of the impact, and it should surely show the evolution. The problem, I guess, is that they aren't making an effort to keep the overall 4-day sample demographically balanced - 4 duff samples don't add up to one good sample in that case.

    Or is there more to it than that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited August 2021

    The Government called it world beating, when it is not.

    They did a very good job - and I have said so on many occasions here and elsewhere. But they did over promise by calling it “world beating”, which is something they have a habit of doing. And that will be their downfall.

    The USP of this government is over promise and under deliver.

    If Labour had achieved what the Tories have achieved, they would be ridiculed by many here for over promising. As usual the standards are not consistent.

    Almost world beating then. There are very few countries that can claim to have rolled out a vaccine as quickly to the most vulnerable groups as the UK. Instead, you somehow think the UK's program was just about as good as any other country.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    So it turns out Clapton's hate filled racist rant in the 70s wasn't a blip, he was an arsehole all along.



  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    So it turns out Clapton's hate filled racist rant in the 70s wasn't a blip, he was an arsehole all along.



    I shot the sheriff.
    But I did not get the shot myself.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited August 2021

    Exclusive: Boris Johnson facing prospect of vote on universal credit cut when MPs return

    Disquiet has been growing among Conservatives over the summer months.

    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1431931673529274376?s=20

    Move along, nothing to see here. Certainly in terms of Government HoC votes anyway.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,556
    RobD said:

    The Government called it world beating, when it is not.

    They did a very good job - and I have said so on many occasions here and elsewhere. But they did over promise by calling it “world beating”, which is something they have a habit of doing. And that will be their downfall.

    The USP of this government is over promise and under deliver.

    If Labour had achieved what the Tories have achieved, they would be ridiculed by many here for over promising. As usual the standards are not consistent.

    Almost world beating then. There are very few countries that can claim to have rolled out a vaccine as quickly to the most vulnerable groups as the UK. Instead, you somehow think the UK's program was just about as good as any other country.
    I'd say it was as near world-beating as makes no difference. In the early months, two countries beat us per capita: Israel and UAE. Both have populations about a seventh of ours, and Israel had the advantage of a deal with Pfizer that gave them almost unlimited jabs in return for a premium payment and data.

    We did best of any large country, and third-best of any country. I can imagine how you'd be complaining if Boris had signed an Israel-style deal that meant Pfizer got data ...
  • RobD said:

    The Government called it world beating, when it is not.

    They did a very good job - and I have said so on many occasions here and elsewhere. But they did over promise by calling it “world beating”, which is something they have a habit of doing. And that will be their downfall.

    The USP of this government is over promise and under deliver.

    If Labour had achieved what the Tories have achieved, they would be ridiculed by many here for over promising. As usual the standards are not consistent.

    Almost world beating then. There are very few countries that can claim to have rolled out a vaccine as quickly to the most vulnerable groups as the UK. Instead, you somehow think the UK's program was just about as good as any other country.
    For some the UK must be seen to have failed at everything.

    Thus an obsession with trying to prove a success on vaccination is somehow not.

    When there are so many easy targets of where the UK has done badly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    dixiedean said:

    So it turns out Clapton's hate filled racist rant in the 70s wasn't a blip, he was an arsehole all along.

    I shot the sheriff.
    But I did not get the shot myself.
    It appears he did get the shot but it made him feel a bit funny and he's written a whiny song about it.

    The Ivermectin apostles are out in force in the comments under the Rolling Stone piece I read.

    'Never mind that any mention of effective treatments like Ivermectin will be censored'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,556
    I haven't seen how bad the damage to Perez's car is, but if they get it back to the pits, and with the delayed start, if they can fix it, would they be allowed to start? I know Verstappen crashed out on the way to the grid in Hungary last year, but he made it back to the pits under his own steam.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    I haven't seen how bad the damage to Perez's car is, but if they get it back to the pits, and with the delayed start, if they can fix it, would they be allowed to start? I know Verstappen crashed out on the way to the grid in Hungary last year, but he made it back to the pits under his own steam.

    not sure sorry. gem on radio 5 live extra "the rain will make a wet track wetter".

    think perez had damaged suspension from his crash which i dont think is fixable in a hurry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited August 2021


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Has anyone found a single report in any paper from any broadcaster, today, noting that cases in England are now unambiguously falling - down on average over the past week?

    Are they? Guardian figures are 32406 (+348 on last week), hospitalisation 6942 (+467), deaths 133 (+29). I think hospitalisation is probably the best guide, since lots of people (including me) aren't routinely testing, just staying out of the way. Feels like a moderate upward trend at the moment.
    UK....England....TOO CONFUSING....shakes head.

    Yes ENGLAND is down a small amount, for now*, Scotland is way up = UK up a bit.

    * When the super spreader go back to school it will go up, as it has done in Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    dixiedean said:

    So it turns out Clapton's hate filled racist rant in the 70s wasn't a blip, he was an arsehole all along.



    I shot the sheriff.
    But I did not get the shot myself.
    It's late in the evening. I'm wondering what song to write. So I fire up my keyboard, come up with some utter shite.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    The Observer reports the Foreign Office did not read emails, including from government ministers, outlining cases for Afghan refugees.

    the Observer has seen evidence that an official email address used to collate potential Afghan cases from MPs and others regularly contained 5,000 unread emails throughout the week.

    In many cases, emails detailing the cases of Afghans who fear for their families’ lives appear to have been unopened for days. An email from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, sent on Monday was still unread on Thursday. There also appeared to be unread messages from the offices of Victoria Atkins, the newly appointed minister for Afghan resettlement, the home secretary, Priti Patel, and the Tory chair of the defence select committee, Tobias Ellwood.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/28/revealed-foreign-office-ignored-pleas-help-afghans-mps-evacuation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    How many staff would be needed to read 5,000 emails?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    I haven't seen how bad the damage to Perez's car is, but if they get it back to the pits, and with the delayed start, if they can fix it, would they be allowed to start? I know Verstappen crashed out on the way to the grid in Hungary last year, but he made it back to the pits under his own steam.

    not sure sorry. gem on radio 5 live extra "the rain will make a wet track wetter".

    think perez had damaged suspension from his crash which i dont think is fixable in a hurry.
    apparently they are now working on the car with all the delays. would be pitlane start.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    RobD said:

    The Government called it world beating, when it is not.

    They did a very good job - and I have said so on many occasions here and elsewhere. But they did over promise by calling it “world beating”, which is something they have a habit of doing. And that will be their downfall.

    The USP of this government is over promise and under deliver.

    If Labour had achieved what the Tories have achieved, they would be ridiculed by many here for over promising. As usual the standards are not consistent.

    Almost world beating then. There are very few countries that can claim to have rolled out a vaccine as quickly to the most vulnerable groups as the UK. Instead, you somehow think the UK's program was just about as good as any other country.
    For some the UK must be seen to have failed at everything.

    Thus an obsession with trying to prove a success on vaccination is somehow not.

    When there are so many easy targets of where the UK has done badly.
    You mean former-Remainer traitors, of which I wear my badge with pride.

    Credit where it is due, the UK vaccine rollout has been excellent, primarily because Ministers' chose not to interfere. Don't forget the mantra "Labour jabber, Conservatives jab" (even if the retort was oddly made in the context of low rape prosecution figures).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Andy_JS said:

    The Observer reports the Foreign Office did not read emails, including from government ministers, outlining cases for Afghan refugees.

    the Observer has seen evidence that an official email address used to collate potential Afghan cases from MPs and others regularly contained 5,000 unread emails throughout the week.

    In many cases, emails detailing the cases of Afghans who fear for their families’ lives appear to have been unopened for days. An email from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, sent on Monday was still unread on Thursday. There also appeared to be unread messages from the offices of Victoria Atkins, the newly appointed minister for Afghan resettlement, the home secretary, Priti Patel, and the Tory chair of the defence select committee, Tobias Ellwood.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/28/revealed-foreign-office-ignored-pleas-help-afghans-mps-evacuation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    How many staff would be needed to read 5,000 emails?
    "unread for days": in other words, time to get staff in from other offices/depts to at least do an initial screening and triage into shite/urgent/needs attention in due course.
  • 'Explosion' near Kabul airport as 'rocket' hits house:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited August 2021
    Lovely people the new reformed Teletubby Taliban...

    Taliban murder Afghan singer: Folk musician who played the lute and sang traditional songs for locals in the mountains was 'dragged out of his home and shot in the head'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9937425/Family-Taliban-kills-Afghan-folk-singer-restive-province.html
  • Andy_JS said:

    The Observer reports the Foreign Office did not read emails, including from government ministers, outlining cases for Afghan refugees.

    the Observer has seen evidence that an official email address used to collate potential Afghan cases from MPs and others regularly contained 5,000 unread emails throughout the week.

    In many cases, emails detailing the cases of Afghans who fear for their families’ lives appear to have been unopened for days. An email from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, sent on Monday was still unread on Thursday. There also appeared to be unread messages from the offices of Victoria Atkins, the newly appointed minister for Afghan resettlement, the home secretary, Priti Patel, and the Tory chair of the defence select committee, Tobias Ellwood.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/28/revealed-foreign-office-ignored-pleas-help-afghans-mps-evacuation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    How many staff would be needed to read 5,000 emails?
    I think this story is one of those that was just overwhelmed by the shear urgency of the task in Afghanistan with foreign office staff being flown out and total concentration on the ground to the real crisis

    In other words the circumstances made the prioritising of the immediate supercede the ability to respond to thousands of e mails, each of which would have required a team of investigators and responders

    There are times when too much is expected, and this is one of them
  • Caleb Wallace, a leader of the anti-mask movement in central Texas, has died of coronavirus, his wife says - NYT
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/29/food-beer-toys-medical-kit-why-is-britain-running-out-of-everything

    'Adrian Jones, a national officer for Unite, which represents workers throughout vital supply chains, from warehouse staff to lorry drivers. “This has come after decades of drivers being undervalued. Ten pounds an hour does not reflect the skills and knowledge needed to even start work as a lorry driver, or the responsibility of driving 44-tonne vehicles on congested roads in the UK. They are treated with disdain.”

    It’s not hard to find dissatisfaction on the roads. Mark Hughes, 44, who has been driving HGVs for 20 years, says pay has barely changed in his working life, with retention bonuses only emerging in the last few months as companies have attempted belatedly to hang on to their drivers. [...] A lack of facilities and time pressure means drivers are often forced to use their cabs as toilets and wash by the side of the road. “The main thing you need for this job is a blanket, pillow, wet wipes and plastic bags,” says Hughes. “The laybys are sometimes covered in shit so it’s safer to crap in a plastic bag inside your cab. You wash with soap and water in a plastic bowl. It is degrading. It’s like living on the streets.”'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited August 2021
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/29/food-beer-toys-medical-kit-why-is-britain-running-out-of-everything

    'Adrian Jones, a national officer for Unite, which represents workers throughout vital supply chains, from warehouse staff to lorry drivers. “This has come after decades of drivers being undervalued. Ten pounds an hour does not reflect the skills and knowledge needed to even start work as a lorry driver, or the responsibility of driving 44-tonne vehicles on congested roads in the UK. They are treated with disdain.”

    It’s not hard to find dissatisfaction on the roads. Mark Hughes, 44, who has been driving HGVs for 20 years, says pay has barely changed in his working life, with retention bonuses only emerging in the last few months as companies have attempted belatedly to hang on to their drivers. [...] A lack of facilities and time pressure means drivers are often forced to use their cabs as toilets and wash by the side of the road. “The main thing you need for this job is a blanket, pillow, wet wipes and plastic bags,” says Hughes. “The laybys are sometimes covered in shit so it’s safer to crap in a plastic bag inside your cab. You wash with soap and water in a plastic bowl. It is degrading. It’s like living on the streets.”'

    < £30k a year for driving a HGV seems a very low wage, not surprising so many people who had licences left the industry. You can earn more than that doing so many other skilled manual labour type jobs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20
  • Well that was a fun Belgian grand prix
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    edited August 2021
    FPT

    YoungTurk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Sunday Times has a story on Stuart Dickson’s adopted homeland.

    Children shot as they walk home, police officers cut down while on duty and gangs carrying out murders in broad daylight

    Welcome to Sweden – Europe's unexpected gun crime hotspot


    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1431681384725286918

    You're not supposed to mention this subject.
    Organised crime has been the biggest theme in much of popular literature ("noir") in Sweden for years, even if political discourse has mostly ignored it. Sweden is in any case a highly whackball country. Stuff like people sitting around the TV set eating the same dinner that the royal family consume at the annual Nobel prize event. And "lagom" - please can no-one mention that word to me.

    Also rarely mentioned is the "Wallenberg grip" that all Swedes know about and will acknowledge if asked.
    What's the problem with "lagom" - essentially "everything in moderation"?
    Having lived in Sweden for a while and been driven up the wall by this attitude, which permeates Swedish society (while a kind of "parallel" Sweden dominated by organised crime appears in much of the country's popular literature - a case of the "return of the repressed"?), I would change perspective and frame it as "nothing to excess".

    I'm with William Blake: "The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom".

    Or one could go further and frame "lagom" as "don't challenge anything" or "just be a zombie". (I have to apologise for any offence caused to Swedish readers here, but I've heard several emigrant Swedes say things like "Oh dear, was I like that when I was in Sweden? Well you can see why I emigrated.")

    Many who espouse the attitude say the word is hard to translate, even if they are fluent in English and perhaps even speak English to native-tongue level. That in itself says a lot. It's like being wrapped in cotton wool or swimming in treacle or being on tranquilisers for life and not knowing anything different.


  • Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited August 2021
    The number of new Covid cases reported in Scotland has hit another record high of 7,113.

    Around two thirds of cases are in the under-40 group. About 30% of Covid-related hospital admissions in the last month were also from the same age bracket.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
    At least he didn't end up in Peterborough by mistake.

    Interesting, all the same - why should that loon* come all the way up to the NE? Even if it were for a pull, there are many more quines in London town. And, remember, the cancellation of EVEL (did it ever actually happen)? Do you think he's trying to become MP for a Deeside constituency?

    *Not pejorative in Doric.
  • Breaking on Sky

    US carry out military strike in Kabul
  • Carnyx said:

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
    At least he didn't end up in Peterborough by mistake.

    Interesting, all the same - why should that loon* come all the way up to the NE? Even if it were for a pull, there are many more quines in London town. And, remember, the cancellation of EVEL (did it ever actually happen)? Do you think he's trying to become MP for a Deeside constituency?

    *Not pejorative in Doric.
    Gove's hometown isn't it?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    Well that was a fun Belgian grand prix

    Rain for the rest of the day. This coming week, dry dry dry dry dry.

    Silly sausages. If they'd only built a roof like what Wimbledon did, they'd be fine.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
    At least he didn't end up in Peterborough by mistake.

    Interesting, all the same - why should that loon* come all the way up to the NE? Even if it were for a pull, there are many more quines in London town. And, remember, the cancellation of EVEL (did it ever actually happen)? Do you think he's trying to become MP for a Deeside constituency?

    *Not pejorative in Doric.
    Gove's hometown isn't it?
    Indeed. Must be visiting the rellies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited August 2021

    Breaking on Sky

    US carry out military strike in Kabul

    A source at the Afghan Ministry of Health separately told the BBC that the blast was near the airport, while two witnesses told Reuters that a house north of the airport was struck by a rocket. A Kabul police chief said a child was killed in the explosion on Sunday.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Next Foreign Secretary apparently.

    He is deeply fucking weird.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    YoungTurk said:

    FPT

    YoungTurk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Sunday Times has a story on Stuart Dickson’s adopted homeland.

    Children shot as they walk home, police officers cut down while on duty and gangs carrying out murders in broad daylight

    Welcome to Sweden – Europe's unexpected gun crime hotspot


    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1431681384725286918

    You're not supposed to mention this subject.
    Organised crime has been the biggest theme in much of popular literature ("noir") in Sweden for years, even if political discourse has mostly ignored it. Sweden is in any case a highly whackball country. Stuff like people sitting around the TV set eating the same dinner that the royal family consume at the annual Nobel prize event. And "lagom" - please can no-one mention that word to me.

    Also rarely mentioned is the "Wallenberg grip" that all Swedes know about and will acknowledge if asked.
    What's the problem with "lagom" - essentially "everything in moderation"?
    Having lived in Sweden for a while and been driven up the wall by this attitude, which permeates Swedish society (while a kind of "parallel" Sweden dominated by organised crime appears in much of the country's popular literature - a case of the "return of the repressed"?), I would change perspective and frame it as "nothing to excess".

    I'm with William Blake: "The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom".

    Or one could go further and frame "lagom" as "don't challenge anything" or "just be a zombie". (I have to apologise for any offence caused to Swedish readers here, but I've heard several emigrant Swedes say things like "Oh dear, was I like that when I was in Sweden? Well you can see why I emigrated.")

    Many who espouse the attitude say it's hard to translate, even if they are fluent in English and perhaps even speak English to native-tongue level. That in itself says a lot. It's like being wrapped in cotton wool or swimming in treacle or being on tranquilisers for life and not knowing anything different.


    Interesting. Was chatting to a friend about the wonders of Denmark, and she expressed similar reservations - she's a successful actress who made her way up the ladder from a tough background, and feels that the incentive to excel is crucial for an enjoyable society, while everyone peacefully bobbing along is a bit dull.

    I disagree with her - I think that a secure consensual basis for a society with few great inequalities is exactly what you need to have the courage to try new stuff, experiment with different careers, etc. That's IMO why Scandinavia combines reasonably high living standards and harmony with economic success driven by the private sector - it's a compromise that I didn't altogether agree with in my communist youth, but I've come to see its merits. In Britain, people are all too conscious of the depths that one can fall, so they cling to jobs they don't really enjoy.

    But I know there are different views on all that, and obviously people who chose to leave will be among those who really don't like it. (The gang rivalries in Sweden are mostly a separate issue and I agree they're unnerving.)
  • NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    How we used to laugh at George Brown's "tired and emotional" state. Fortunately today's MPs are made of sterner stuff.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Carnyx said:

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
    At least he didn't end up in Peterborough by mistake.

    Interesting, all the same - why should that loon* come all the way up to the NE? Even if it were for a pull, there are many more quines in London town. And, remember, the cancellation of EVEL (did it ever actually happen)? Do you think he's trying to become MP for a Deeside constituency?

    *Not pejorative in Doric.
    It's his home town.
  • Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Gay nite in the Don
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    edited August 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Fackin hell.
    Looks like some Banchory marching powder was taken.



    https://twitter.com/Record_Politics/status/1431956280931979265?s=20

    Enjoying the single life....
    At least he didn't end up in Peterborough by mistake.

    Interesting, all the same - why should that loon* come all the way up to the NE? Even if it were for a pull, there are many more quines in London town. And, remember, the cancellation of EVEL (did it ever actually happen)? Do you think he's trying to become MP for a Deeside constituency?

    *Not pejorative in Doric.
    Gove's hometown isn't it?
    Siri, show me a mass of contradictions.

    Gove raves at a nightclub called Bohemia in Aberdeen.


    You can take the tightwad out of grippit Aberdeen but..

    '"People were buying him drinks but were also joking that he should be getting the rounds after he racked up £100,000 in expenses last year.
    Nobody else ever appeared, he was by himself.
    It's also rumoured that he never paid to get in, but I can't be sure of that.
    This was the last thing I expected to see on a Saturday night in Aberdeen."

  • The number of new Covid cases reported in Scotland has hit another record high of 7,113.

    Govey's quest for Twinky goodness a super-spreader event?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    The number of new Covid cases reported in Scotland has hit another record high of 7,113.

    Around two thirds of cases are in the under-40 group. About 30% of Covid-related hospital admissions in the last month were also from the same age bracket.

    Scotland has just reached the 80% mark for double vaccinations. Meanwhile, IIRC, it was only earlier in the week that Sturgeon was forced to refute dark rumours of a circuit breaker lockdown being planned.

    Hopefully this is just a case of Delta filling in the gaps, in the context of a population that has experienced a lower case rate than England's throughout the full course of the pandemic to date - though OTOH the latest ONS antibody prevalence modelling has the two nations both well in excess of 90% of all adults, and very close to one another.

    You have to wonder how many more months/years it is going to be before this wretched disease finally begins to run out of victims.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522

    Andy_JS said:

    The Observer reports the Foreign Office did not read emails, including from government ministers, outlining cases for Afghan refugees.

    the Observer has seen evidence that an official email address used to collate potential Afghan cases from MPs and others regularly contained 5,000 unread emails throughout the week.

    In many cases, emails detailing the cases of Afghans who fear for their families’ lives appear to have been unopened for days. An email from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, sent on Monday was still unread on Thursday. There also appeared to be unread messages from the offices of Victoria Atkins, the newly appointed minister for Afghan resettlement, the home secretary, Priti Patel, and the Tory chair of the defence select committee, Tobias Ellwood.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/28/revealed-foreign-office-ignored-pleas-help-afghans-mps-evacuation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    How many staff would be needed to read 5,000 emails?
    I think this story is one of those that was just overwhelmed by the shear urgency of the task in Afghanistan with foreign office staff being flown out and total concentration on the ground to the real crisis

    In other words the circumstances made the prioritising of the immediate supercede the ability to respond to thousands of e mails, each of which would have required a team of investigators and responders

    There are times when too much is expected, and this is one of them
    Don't think I agree, though I guess neither of us know for sure. I'm sceptical that many of the clerical staff in the Foreign Office were flown out, and frankly any of us could do a first pass through 5000 emails solo in a few days. It would have needed someone to set up three standard replies - "appreciate that's urgent, we'll try", "we are overwhelmed but we'll get to it ASAP" and "we are overwhelmed but will respond in due course" - and then at least try to action the 100 most urgent every day. What you shouldn't do is provide MPs with an address for urgent emails and then not look at it at all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can’t Westminster just pass an act for Scottish Independence now? Devolution doesn’t work, federalism probably won’t work, going beck to the status quo ante 1998 is politically unacceptable which leaves dissolving the Union the only logical next step. It’s a damaging Union for all parties.

    Federalism might well work.
    Probably not, and it is unlikely to be tried either. Everyone can appreciate that the devolution settlement is a mess that wholly satisfies almost no-one, but the overriding aim of the pro-Union parties at Westminster is (from their point of view) to avoid making a bad situation even worse.

    The problem with federalism is that you either create an English Parliament - in which case, there's a tremendous risk of an actual ENP emerging and finishing Britain off from the centre - or you try to cut England up into (mostly artificial) regions, which then means that Westminster has a dozen or more constantly aggrieved devolved First Ministers to deal with instead of just three.

    From the point of view of the Unionists, the least worst option is to leave things more-or-less as they are, and to try to make it too scary for voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to leave - primarily by throwing vast amounts of money at them, and therefore inviting them to contemplate how they would cope without it.
    Couple of points.
    On Federalism. An English parliament remains the missing link in the constitutional settlement. Yes it would be large and unwieldy compared to the other parliaments but the English block in Westminster already does that. If England then wants regional devolution thats up to them - a matter for their new parliament.

    On throwing money at us - fat chance. England isn't about to throw money at England so there is no chance of it being flung across the wall or across the water.
    On the English Parliament: it might not pump rocket fuel into a populist independence movement, but I wouldn't count on it. Look at Holyrood.

    On the money: the devolved administrations are already heavily subsidised by Westminster. In the Scottish case, the GERS figures tell us this. If you're moving towards the denialist camp on this then there's no point in my trying to convince you otherwise, but it is what it is.
    You are having a laugh, GERS is a fairy story
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    On the squirrelly idea that opinion polls should decide whether there’s another referendum, wouldn’t it have to become legislation to have any relevance? Anyone care to sketch out a path to that coming to pass?

    Just the usual bollox, when it comes to it they will just say we have not enough 60% 's yet, ad infinitum. It is F*** all to do with these snivelling cowardly arseholes whether we want a vote or not.
This discussion has been closed.