Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some of the seats LAB needs to win for a Commons majority – politicalbetting.com

24567

Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    Probably because the politics of ending it early will hurt more than the cost for September?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    In a tremendous GE for Anas* I could see him taking a 5% swing from the SNP. That would net them four seats (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, East Lothian, Glasgow North East and Rutherglen and Hamilton West). That shortfall means he needs to take an extra thirteen seats in England or Wales.

    (*very hard to see happening on his current form)

    Is he still in office, totally missing for at least a month.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
    The Effect of Daylight Savings on Public Health study team: the Fall Backs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    Wales cases are going up but the 3247 is a misleading figure as they aren't reporting sundays now so there's more specimen backlog in today's figure than previous.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    Incidentally, I wonder if we will see any changes in traffic numbers, congestion, pollution etc from the 50% reduction of "land bridge" commercial traffic from the ROI which has allegedly now been diverted through southern ports in Ireland.

    I think reducing traffic is in general a more sensible way of dealing with congestion than building more roads willy-nilly.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited August 2021

    mwadams said:

    Quincel said:

    I kinda want to see Labour win a majority if only to see the insane turn of events which makes it possible.

    And then the picture of 116 Jim Hackers making their way to their offices, utterly unprepared for Government!
    Somewhat unfair on Jim Hacker. He was totally green in terms of government, but he'd been an MP for a couple of decades and a member of the Shadow Cabinet for about 7 years. When Yes Minister was written, that probably did count as a convincing CV for a naive new minister, now it would make him massively experienced. Over the hill, if anything.

    On Topic- the SNP have got so many Scottish seats that it would take a miracle for Labour to get a majority. It's one of those things that nobody will admit, but that has to be part of the calculation of what happens next.

    And it would be interesting to know where the Clarke-Stewart Conservatives have gone. Labour? Lib Dem? Very reluctantly voting Conservative? Staying at home? Some of them have clearly gone somewhere, since the Conservatives have assimilated the old Brexit Party vote and are still slightly down overall.
    Where Clarkeite/Stewartite Tories go is a truly interesting question in a number of ways. How many are there, where are they located, what do they think of SKS, and crucially, what do they think of the Tories as they are now?

    I hope there is some research into this, but I haven't seen it. My guess is like this:

    Not many stay at home. Clarkeites are not quitters.
    Very few would vote for a Labour party that contains or might come to contain and tolerate anti-semitism or Jezza politics generally.
    Many would go the an LD party which was principled, centrist, liberal and Orange bookish. But it isn't.
    Few will vote for independents, small parties, mavericks however principled.

    Most will notice that Clarke, Heseltine and Hunt are still in the party and that Boris, Brexit aside which is a done deal, is centrist but populist and stick with the Tories for now.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,797
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    I wonder how many people at the footie over the weekend (what a joy to see packed stands) are on furlough.
    The only time the swing in Ealing Central and Acton was above 10% was in 2017 to Labour but Labour already gained the seat in 2015 on a 2% swing
    This is the most brilliant non-sequitur in weeks. Actually a parody of a pb poster who can responds to all conversations with polling minutiae. I lolled.

    And yes I'm sure HYUFD simply pressed quote erroneously. But I lolled anyway.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
    The Effect of Daylight Savings on Public Health study team: the Fall Backs.
    The Eton International Schools NZ branch traditional games team: the Wall Blacks.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    England's rise is only 4% from last week.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Squash: Wall Blacks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Pétanque: Gaul Blacks.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TOPPING said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
    The Effect of Daylight Savings on Public Health study team: the Fall Backs.
    The Eton International Schools NZ branch traditional games team: the Wall Blacks.
    One of the better ones!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pétanque: Gaul Blacks.

    NZ "Workers" - Sprawl backs
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    TOPPING said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
    The Effect of Daylight Savings on Public Health study team: the Fall Backs.
    The Eton International Schools NZ branch traditional games team: the Wall Blacks.
    Damn. I was too slow with squash. Yours is better!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    French presidents lookalike team: The De Gaulle Blacks
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Pulpstar said:

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    Wales cases are going up but the 3247 is a misleading figure as they aren't reporting sundays now so there's more specimen backlog in today's figure than previous.
    Good to know.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited August 2021
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    The shoplifting team - the Mall Blacks.

    No, ok, truly sorry. :smile:
    The Effect of Daylight Savings on Public Health study team: the Fall Backs.
    Rowing team: Oar Blacks
    Tug of War: Haul Blacks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    The Eton International School NZ Branch Fives Team: No Back Wall Blacks
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DougSeal said:

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    England's rise is only 4% from last week.
    I recall you thinking we should be near the peak soon - certainly not seeing cases explode (England at least).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    That's enough Eton International School NZ Branch teams...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    England's rise is only 4% from last week.
    I recall you thinking we should be near the peak soon - certainly not seeing cases explode (England at least).
    Don't think that was me (unless you're thinking back to mid July). My view is that either (a) cases explode when schools go back and we get some sort of peak late September or (b) they keep gradually rising until later in the year so we get a gentle but wide hillock rather than the precipitous alpine peaks of past waves.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
    Lol, we've heard that they are filing with the MHRA in 2-3 weeks, submission being finalised. Approval expected in October but we've got no use case for it at the moment so who knows what it will be used for or if it will be given away.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    I wonder how many people at the footie over the weekend (what a joy to see packed stands) are on furlough.
    The only time the swing in Ealing Central and Acton was above 10% was in 2017 to Labour but Labour already gained the seat in 2015 on a 2% swing
    This is the most brilliant non-sequitur in weeks. Actually a parody of a pb poster who can responds to all conversations with polling minutiae. I lolled.

    And yes I'm sure HYUFD simply pressed quote erroneously. But I lolled anyway.
    I did that yesterday. Replied to a post about a BBC hiring controversy with a detailed review of Nigel Farage's "Talking Pints" show that wasn't relevant and which nobody had asked for. You feel a dick when it happens, you really do, but you just have to put it behind you and move on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    FPT - I think Greta thinks the most effective way to drive change is act as a model of 'purity' herself, and then berate adults on top.

    It's quite common when you're young, as you've just left your parents care - and it works with them - but you're yet to work out that listening and tact are the key to achieving influence in the real world as a grown adult.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited August 2021

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    DougSeal said:

    French presidents lookalike team: The De Gaulle Blacks

    Ok - the south [ern] island charm team - the y'all blacks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    FPT - I think Greta thinks the most effective way to drive change is act as a model of 'purity' herself, and then berate adults on top.

    It's quite common when you're young, as you've just left your parents care - and it works with them - but you're yet to work out that listening and tact are the key to achieving influence in the real world as a grown adult.

    As you say young people will be young people. It is entirely the old peoples' fault if she is given the platform to espouse such views. Not her fault at all. There must be plenty of teenagers with all kinds of good, bad, and ugly views that the media (ie the consumers of media, ie us) don't give a damn about.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited August 2021

    The pedant in me objects to the amateurish errors in that chart. Correct names:

    Dunfermline and West Fife
    West Dunbartonshire

    The media has always put compass points at the end of constituency names. Not sure why. Maybe because it's more consistent. The various boundary commissions have an odd practice of putting them at the end for urban areas and the beginning for non-urban areas.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

    I know Labour are not great at winning elections but are CCHQ and Downing Street now interchangeable? Even then could we have the person at CCHQ who has investigated the claim and made a decision named, otherwise there can be no accountability.

    And the idea that anyone at Downing Street is objectively scrutinising the PMs adherence to the ministerial code is laughable. Downing St = Boris Johnson. Ministerial code = irrelevant relic of the past.

    My commentary is independent of the merits of this specific instance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,005
    edited August 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    I have not heard of Valneva . Novavax CCurevax nor Janssen..
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know someone who is furloughed two days out of five but is doing five days worth of work on the other three. They work for a travel firm.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Doubtless the JCVI will ignore this:

    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1429832072282181639
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    Because the people running the country aren't very bright.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,797
    Andy_JS said:

    The pedant in me objects to the amateurish errors in that chart. Correct names:

    Dunfermline and West Fife
    West Dunbartonshire

    The media has always put compass points at the end of constituency names. Not sure why. Maybe because it's more consistent. The various boundary commissions have an odd practice of putting them at the end for urban areas and the beginning for non-urban areas.
    It depends on whether they are borough constituencies or county constituencies. So you have constituency names like 'Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland'.
    I don't know why, nor why it is important to continue to differentiate between the two.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    We need to talk about cases... UK latest 31,914. Up 13.4% on the week,
    BUT England 24,158, last week 23,171 - pretty flat. Wales dumped another 3247 today, Scotland 3189.

    Not sure what's going on with Wales - assuming Scotland is linked to schools, but some dispute that. Is Wales seeing a holiday bounce, like Boardmasters in Cornwall?

    England's rise is only 4% from last week.
    I recall you thinking we should be near the peak soon - certainly not seeing cases explode (England at least).
    Don't think that was me (unless you're thinking back to mid July). My view is that either (a) cases explode when schools go back and we get some sort of peak late September or (b) they keep gradually rising until later in the year so we get a gentle but wide hillock rather than the precipitous alpine peaks of past waves.
    Must have been someone else then!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
    Lol, we've heard that they are filing with the MHRA in 2-3 weeks, submission being finalised. Approval expected in October but we've got no use case for it at the moment so who knows what it will be used for or if it will be given away.
    Have you checked the year on that press release…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    AZ is furthest along in trials for a nasally administered vaccine, so it’s possible we’ll be able to use them for that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited August 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    There used to be a showroom in Kensington when I first moved to London. Holland Road is what the inter web thingy is telling me, although for some reason I remember it as being on Piccadilly.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_Cars_showroom_Kensington_High_Street.jpg
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

    I know Labour are not great at winning elections but are CCHQ and Downing Street now interchangeable? Even then could we have the person at CCHQ who has investigated the claim and made a decision named, otherwise there can be no accountability.

    And the idea that anyone at Downing Street is objectively scrutinising the PMs adherence to the ministerial code is laughable. Downing St = Boris Johnson. Ministerial code = irrelevant relic of the past.

    My commentary is independent of the merits of this specific instance.
    From a philosophical perspective it’s concerning to have an appointed committee/individual who can censure the PM though. He’s the most senior elected representative in the country and he’s accountable to the electorate.

    Have Mr Civil Servant fining him or suspending him or whatever seems inappropriate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    I have not heard of Valneva . Novavax CCurevax nor Janssen..
    Janssen is J&J
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
    Lol, we've heard that they are filing with the MHRA in 2-3 weeks, submission being finalised. Approval expected in October but we've got no use case for it at the moment so who knows what it will be used for or if it will be given away.
    Have you checked the year on that press release…
    Hopefully it won't be that bad!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blackford casts doubts on major road improvements because Greens don't like them. Who's side is he on? Constituents or Sturgeon's?

    https://twitter.com/Alan_Cochrane/status/1429818912166789129?s=20
  • 10 point Tory lead!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    AZ is furthest along in trials for a nasally administered vaccine, so it’s possible we’ll be able to use them for that.
    I think the rare side effects will preclude it becoming the workhorse vaccine for the UK.
  • The bet remains in play
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited August 2021
    Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    I expect Mr Dickson will be all over that subsample like a cheap suit....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    Lol…

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_412

    I was referring to the Bristol Beaufighter…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

    I know Labour are not great at winning elections but are CCHQ and Downing Street now interchangeable? Even then could we have the person at CCHQ who has investigated the claim and made a decision named, otherwise there can be no accountability.

    And the idea that anyone at Downing Street is objectively scrutinising the PMs adherence to the ministerial code is laughable. Downing St = Boris Johnson. Ministerial code = irrelevant relic of the past.

    My commentary is independent of the merits of this specific instance.
    From a philosophical perspective it’s concerning to have an appointed committee/individual who can censure the PM though. He’s the most senior elected representative in the country and he’s accountable to the electorate.

    Have Mr Civil Servant fining him or suspending him or whatever seems inappropriate.
    If thats what the PM wants to do, he should say that and own it.

    Not put out a press release saying "Downing St" has cleared him.
  • I stand by my year end prediction
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589
    This is getting to the point where I have to ask what the **** is going on with the polling.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    Reminds me of the way that whenever there's a tube strike a lot of people discover the route they've been using for years isn't the best one.
  • Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    10 points and SNP down 3% (-2)

    Is the deal with the Green a SNP mistake



  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    There used to be a showroom in Kensington when I first moved to London. Holland Road is what the inter web thingy is telling me, although for some reason I remember it as being on Piccadilly.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_Cars_showroom_Kensington_High_Street.jpg
    It closed a couple of years ago sadly. Opposite the entrance to Warwick Avenue on KHS
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    That wasn’t fraud - it was explicitly allowed to do other work while on furlough. You just couldn’t work for your primary employer.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589
    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    There used to be a showroom in Kensington when I first moved to London. Holland Road is what the inter web thingy is telling me, although for some reason I remember it as being on Piccadilly.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_Cars_showroom_Kensington_High_Street.jpg
    I remember that place from 30 years ago! I tried to get in, but they wouldn't let me. For some reason ...

    (Scruffy student)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    The above scenario is not fraud. Rightly or wrongly it was within the intent and letter of the furlough rules to do a different job in addition to furlough.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
    Lol, we've heard that they are filing with the MHRA in 2-3 weeks, submission being finalised. Approval expected in October but we've got no use case for it at the moment so who knows what it will be used for or if it will be given away.
    Have you checked the year on that press release…
    Hopefully it won't be that bad!
    I just assumed they pre-announced it last year!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    “If” doing a lot of work there…

    😂
    Lol, we've heard that they are filing with the MHRA in 2-3 weeks, submission being finalised. Approval expected in October but we've got no use case for it at the moment so who knows what it will be used for or if it will be given away.
    Have you checked the year on that press release…
    Hopefully it won't be that bad!
    Their vaccine relies on a chemical from the bark of a rare Chilean tree, or some such. I wonder it that is part of their problem - I know there were shortages at some point. I also suspect that their manufacturing technology is harder to master than other vaccines'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    This is getting to the point where I have to ask what the **** is going on with the polling.
    1) Noise, but most important,
    2) It really doesn't matter much unless it panics one of the parties into doing something...

    In the meantime it provides harmless entertainment and no end of egg-on-face for the punditocracy who routinely predict that the polls will move in their favoured direction because of "something" that's important to them...
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    AZ is furthest along in trials for a nasally administered vaccine, so it’s possible we’ll be able to use them for that.
    I think the rare side effects will preclude it becoming the workhorse vaccine for the UK.
    I thought that the side effects were due to leakage into the bloodstream from the injection?

    So would a nasally administered vaccine not be safer?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    Wow. Agree with Max on a public spending issue :smile:

    HS2 is about a 21C transport system, and the further benefits of HS2 are getting people out of aeroplanes, and creating capacity to move freight off roads. Which puts it at the heart of the core green agenda of this Govt.

    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.

    Where PT has been invested in - perhaps mainly metropolitan area systems and light rail / trams - it is used.

    If it is true that the EM and NE are being knifed in the back on levelling up, after multiple billions have been p*ssed away on unnecessary tunnels and similar to placate Nimbys, then there should be hell to pay.

    They are also washing away some of the foundations of their appeal.
    Where public transport has been invested in it is indeed used. By a teeny tiny fraction of northerners.

    The overwhelming majority of northerners (like the overwhelming majority of the country full stop) drive - and the climate excuse to be anti-car has been eliminated by Tesla etc

    £100bn invested into the road network would do far more for the country than £100bn on a train set.

    Not as shiny and pretty for people who make these decisions though. But the roads actually work and are actually what is used by the overwhelming majority of the country. £100bn of new motorways (and by-passes and other road upgrades etc) would do massively more than a new train set to play with.
    Picking this up from earlier - had a chance briefly to check some numbers for light-rail in England.

    The "teeny tiny" thing is only where the investment is teeny tiny. Our small number of small light rail systems carry just under 270m journeys a year, 150m if we ignore DLR. That is only Manchester / Nottingham / Tyne and Wear / Croydon-Beckenham / Midland Metro / Blackpool.

    Checking Nottingham, the trams do 60 journeys per year per resident in the region, and the system does not even cover the whole city. Not teeny-tiny.

    Tesla etc have made some progress on emissions, though it depends on supply mix, and they are strangely reticent about their own environmental credentials, unless it has changed recently. The elephant in the room is congestion.

    On the £100bn on roads - some investment, yes. The one that gets my goat is greenies demanding that places where road accidents put cars in gardens or front rooms get no investment on a universal principle.

    A few more or bigger roads as a complete alternative to a proper rail network? That's for the birds imo.
    What's for the birds is a rail network to get HGVs off the road, when HGVs carry billions of tonnes of goods while rails carry millions.

    The roads as an alternative to rail is already what the market overwhelmingly chooses despite rail getting so much investment and roads getting so much tax instead.

    When the roads are moving billions of tonnes of goods, and having billions of passenger journeys, then is a hundred billion for rail really the best option out there? What could be done with £100bn for roads instead?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    10 point Tory lead!

    It’s almost as if mid summer polls are so volatile as to be useless
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sailing team: Squall Blacks.

    Except those competing in two masted vessels: the Yawl Blacks.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    Nothing whatsoever fraudulent about that. It was expressly allowed from the start of the scheme that you could work for someone else but not the employer that put you on furlough. If the employer didn’t like that then the employer should have just made them redundant. Which would have cost more money.
  • DougSeal said:

    French presidents lookalike team: The De Gaulle Blacks

    The iSAGE charity football team: The All Quacks.
    Now that is really good
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    10 points and SNP down 3% (-2)

    Is the deal with the Green a SNP mistake
    Yes - but I very much doubt that's what we're seeing (yet) in this poll.....




  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    Nothing whatsoever fraudulent about that. It was expressly allowed from the start of the scheme that you could work for someone else but not the employer that put you on furlough. If the employer didn’t like that then the employer should have just made them redundant. Which would have cost more money.
    I mean they went off to work for jobs cash in hand: no tax, black economy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    I stand by my year end prediction

    I thought you would win until a couple of weeks ago. People have now accepted unlockdown in full and the scepticism is going away. Initially it looked as though Labour may have been able to paint Boris and Rishi as taking too many risks but now it seems like that won't happen.

    The next big misstep could be not having a large booster shot programme and then seeing the hospitalisation/death rate spike to 3-4x today requiring restrictions to be reintroduced around Christmas time all while we have 40-50m Pfizer doses sitting in freezers. That's probably the only way Labour take a polling lead this year and even then I'm not sure Keir will do it, he will "back the scientists" and support whatever decision the government takes on the booster programme if the JCVI says no boosters for 50+ and limits them to 70+. I don't see this happening as I think Javid will simply overrule them and do it anyway from mid-September. He's been absolutely itching to announce a programme and he's much smarter than Hancock and will just ignore bad advice from the JCVI if they say don't do booster shots.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    This is getting to the point where I have to ask what the **** is going on with the polling.
    Its fairly straightforward isnt it? Tories are stuck on 40-44 range, which is the bulk of the Brexit vote. Labour vs minor parties a bit more unpredictable but still fairly steady. Until about a quarter or more Brexiteers think Brexit is either a failure or in the past, the Tories are in a very healthy polling scenario, regardless of their performance on anything else.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

    I know Labour are not great at winning elections but are CCHQ and Downing Street now interchangeable? Even then could we have the person at CCHQ who has investigated the claim and made a decision named, otherwise there can be no accountability.

    And the idea that anyone at Downing Street is objectively scrutinising the PMs adherence to the ministerial code is laughable. Downing St = Boris Johnson. Ministerial code = irrelevant relic of the past.

    My commentary is independent of the merits of this specific instance.
    From a philosophical perspective it’s concerning to have an appointed committee/individual who can censure the PM though. He’s the most senior elected representative in the country and he’s accountable to the electorate.

    Have Mr Civil Servant fining him or suspending him or whatever seems inappropriate.
    If thats what the PM wants to do, he should say that and own it.

    Not put out a press release saying "Downing St" has cleared him.
    That’s a different point. I’m arguing that applying the “ministerial code” to the PM is pointless because it has to be the PM who has the final say.

    In this case though - based on someone’s post earlier about Middlesbrough - it seems that the Tories were cute but within the rules
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    The above scenario is not fraud. Rightly or wrongly it was within the intent and letter of the furlough rules to do a different job in addition to furlough.
    See my prior comment. They went off to work for jobs cash in hand. Undeclared income
  • This is getting to the point where I have to ask what the **** is going on with the polling.
    Maybe the public are not on twitter nor may I suggest this excellent forum

    And maybe Labour overplayed the Raab story
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    There used to be a showroom in Kensington when I first moved to London. Holland Road is what the inter web thingy is telling me, although for some reason I remember it as being on Piccadilly.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_Cars_showroom_Kensington_High_Street.jpg
    It closed a couple of years ago sadly. Opposite the entrance to Warwick Avenue on KHS
    HSK Charles, HSK.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -18%, a 4% decrease from last week and the lowest net approval rating for Starmer to date. 41% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 3%), while 23% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%).

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-23-august-2021/
  • Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    I expect Mr Dickson will be all over that subsample like a cheap suit....

    Margin of Error.

    These ramped polls are never interesting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    75 doctors in South Florida walkout in protest as their hospital is flooded with unvaccinated people who got COVID. #MorningJoe
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DougSeal said:

    French presidents lookalike team: The De Gaulle Blacks

    The iSAGE charity football team: The All Quacks.
    Ladies and Gentlemen*: we have a winner

    * plus any other posters who don’t fall into those categories. I remember going to the wedding of a good friend who’s father was a prominent cabinet minister. He started his speech “Ladies, Gentlemen, and friends of my father”
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    I expect Mr Dickson will be all over that subsample like a cheap suit....

    Margin of Error.

    These ramped polls are never interesting.
    It's a weekly poll so its unfair to call it "ramped" - that's usually done my the monthly Sundays.
  • Father Christmas's Elves Football Team: All Sacks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    Reminds me of the way that whenever there's a tube strike a lot of people discover the route they've been using for years isn't the best one.
    They find walking is better?
  • Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    I expect Mr Dickson will be all over that subsample like a cheap suit....

    Margin of Error.

    These ramped polls are never interesting.
    It's a weekly poll so its unfair to call it "ramped" - that's usually done my the monthly Sundays.
    It was ramped here earlier today.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    Sleazy Tories on the slide....

    Westminster Voting Intention (23 Aug):

    Conservative 43% (+3)
    Labour 33% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 16 Aug


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1429835827379589129?s=20

    I expect Mr Dickson will be all over that subsample like a cheap suit....

    So Boris has got a meaty Afghan bounce? I'd never have predicted that. Surely that's Sir Keir's leadership done for. Labour supporters must be feeling like Morrisey tonight:

    And I know it's over - still I cling
    I don't know where else I can go
    Over and over and over and over
    Over and over, la...
    … I know it's over
    And it never really began
    But in my heart it was so real
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The latest UK order count for each vaccine from the very start of the pandemic is:

    Pfizer-BioNTech 135m
    Oxford Astra-Zeneca 100m
    Valneva 100m
    GlaxoSmithKline/Sanofi Pasteur 60m
    Novavax 60m
    CureVac 50m
    Janssen 20m
    Moderna 17m

    The CureVac we've ordered is actually CureVac/GSK as it's the Gen 2 version only. We declined the Gen 1 vaccine.

    /pedant
    Have we given away our Janssen vaccines?
    Not given away, just reduced the order size from 52m to 20m. I do think it will end up being a giveaway vaccine since we don't really need it. AZ as well. If Novavax ever get their act together I think that becomes our workhorse vaccine. The efficacy modelling places it on the same level as Moderna and it's fairly easy to adjust. The manufacturing process looks difficult to crack though so who know's whether they'll every be able to make it in significant quantities.
    AZ is furthest along in trials for a nasally administered vaccine, so it’s possible we’ll be able to use them for that.
    I think the rare side effects will preclude it becoming the workhorse vaccine for the UK.
    I thought that the side effects were due to leakage into the bloodstream from the injection?

    So would a nasally administered vaccine not be safer?
    I don't think that was ever proved conclusively. Hopefully the nasally administered trial will show no signs of it. I think if the side effect had shown up in the trial data then neither AZ no J&J would have got approval.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    I wonder when my street will get an opinion on this? And who interprets what the various roads believe?

    Perhaps it would be better re-written as "Boris Johnson does not care whether he broke the rules or not and no-one else can do anything about it anyway".
    The tweet is misleading.

    Johnson flew to Middlesbrough on his official plane for government business which he then concluded.

    He was then driven to Hartlepool.

    Labour say that is "joint" public/party business. However CCHQ will tell you - and I think they are right - that the fact that he went on to Hartlepool does not change the character or need for this flight. They are two separate occurances.

    There is a small asterisk as to how CCHQ could have spent literally nothing on transport for the campaign - but the plane is what Labour want to focus on.

    I know Labour are not great at winning elections but are CCHQ and Downing Street now interchangeable? Even then could we have the person at CCHQ who has investigated the claim and made a decision named, otherwise there can be no accountability.

    And the idea that anyone at Downing Street is objectively scrutinising the PMs adherence to the ministerial code is laughable. Downing St = Boris Johnson. Ministerial code = irrelevant relic of the past.

    My commentary is independent of the merits of this specific instance.
    From a philosophical perspective it’s concerning to have an appointed committee/individual who can censure the PM though. He’s the most senior elected representative in the country and he’s accountable to the electorate.

    Have Mr Civil Servant fining him or suspending him or whatever seems inappropriate.
    If thats what the PM wants to do, he should say that and own it.

    Not put out a press release saying "Downing St" has cleared him.
    That’s a different point. I’m arguing that applying the “ministerial code” to the PM is pointless because it has to be the PM who has the final say.

    In this case though - based on someone’s post earlier about Middlesbrough - it seems that the Tories were cute but within the rules
    That is not a different point, that was pretty much the main point of my first post!

    The difference seems to be that I am saying it is wrong for the PM to pretend he has been cleared of breaking the ministerial code when the judge, "Downing St", is presumably himself. He does not care, because he is above the rules and knows it. He does not want the public to understand that though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Downing Street do not believe Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code by using taxpayers money to jet to Hartlepool to campaign for the Tories, as they say the PM can use his official cars for whatever, despite a car not being a plane

    Via
    @BusinessInsider

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1429824009911349253

    Have you ever seen a Bristol?
    Bit of a personal question TBH
    There used to be a showroom in Kensington when I first moved to London. Holland Road is what the inter web thingy is telling me, although for some reason I remember it as being on Piccadilly.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_Cars_showroom_Kensington_High_Street.jpg
    It closed a couple of years ago sadly. Opposite the entrance to Warwick Avenue on KHS
    HSK Charles, HSK.
    Not to locals
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    This is getting to the point where I have to ask what the **** is going on with the polling.
    Maybe the public are not on twitter nor may I suggest this excellent forum

    And maybe Labour overplayed the Raab story
    The Raab story was always puffed up nonsense. MINISTER DOES NOT MAKE PHONE CALL WHILE ON HOLIDAY

    No one gives a fuck, apart from frantic Remoaners and the Daily Mail. Also it was entirely overshadowed by the horror of Kabul - which IS an enormous story - I've had non-political friends mention it unprompted. They are angry at Biden

    The Afghani story has cut through like few others, but it's probably neutral in UK terms
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very poor decision making from this government if they cancel the northern part of HS2. The London to Birmingham bit is the least useful part. We should have started the other way around from Sheffield and Manchester down to Birmingham and then done the Birmingham to London bit afterwards.

    I still think it's a gigantic waste of money that would be better spent elsewhere or not at all. Without the northern half of it we're not only at gigantic waste of money, we're back to "cutting 10 mins off the current journey time" again. Fuck those idiots who keep banging on about this mythical capacity issue, it's not worth £50bn.

    It's just the Leeds bit that's being ditched/put on indefinite hold. The Manchester bit is happening.
    It's still a stupid decision.
    I don't think so. I'm not sure about the merits of London-Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool, but there's certainly a much stronger case for that than Birmingham-Toton-Sheffield-Leeds. What the government ought to do is say that they'll electrify the MML. I'd look at reopening Nuneaton-Burton and Northampton-Market Harborough as a way to cascade capacity from the WCML to the East Midlands, which would also increase journey options (e.g. Milton Keynes to the East Mids).
    No that's just a lack of ambition. We should be planning that branch to go all the way up to Edinburgh at some point. If we're going to spend £100bn on this bullshit then we should at least do it properly.
    Wow. Agree with Max on a public spending issue :smile:

    HS2 is about a 21C transport system, and the further benefits of HS2 are getting people out of aeroplanes, and creating capacity to move freight off roads. Which puts it at the heart of the core green agenda of this Govt.

    @theProle earlier has the wrong end of the stick. People in the North travel in cars because the public transport is shitty, not ubiquitous, and there are too many 4th hand cattle-trucks from 1970/80s London forced on them.

    Where PT has been invested in - perhaps mainly metropolitan area systems and light rail / trams - it is used.

    If it is true that the EM and NE are being knifed in the back on levelling up, after multiple billions have been p*ssed away on unnecessary tunnels and similar to placate Nimbys, then there should be hell to pay.

    They are also washing away some of the foundations of their appeal.
    Where public transport has been invested in it is indeed used. By a teeny tiny fraction of northerners.

    The overwhelming majority of northerners (like the overwhelming majority of the country full stop) drive - and the climate excuse to be anti-car has been eliminated by Tesla etc

    £100bn invested into the road network would do far more for the country than £100bn on a train set.

    Not as shiny and pretty for people who make these decisions though. But the roads actually work and are actually what is used by the overwhelming majority of the country. £100bn of new motorways (and by-passes and other road upgrades etc) would do massively more than a new train set to play with.
    Picking this up from earlier - had a chance briefly to check some numbers for light-rail in England.

    The "teeny tiny" thing is only where the investment is teeny tiny. Our small number of small light rail systems carry just under 270m journeys a year, 150m if we ignore DLR. That is only Manchester / Nottingham / Tyne and Wear / Croydon-Beckenham / Midland Metro / Blackpool.

    Checking Nottingham, the trams do 60 journeys per year per resident in the region, and the system does not even cover the whole city. Not teeny-tiny.

    Tesla etc have made some progress on emissions, though it depends on supply mix, and they are strangely reticent about their own environmental credentials, unless it has changed recently. The elephant in the room is congestion.

    On the £100bn on roads - some investment, yes. The one that gets my goat is greenies demanding that places where road accidents put cars in gardens or front rooms get no investment on a universal principle.

    A few more or bigger roads as a complete alternative to a proper rail network? That's for the birds imo.
    What's for the birds is a rail network to get HGVs off the road, when HGVs carry billions of tonnes of goods while rails carry millions.

    The roads as an alternative to rail is already what the market overwhelmingly chooses despite rail getting so much investment and roads getting so much tax instead.

    When the roads are moving billions of tonnes of goods, and having billions of passenger journeys, then is a hundred billion for rail really the best option out there? What could be done with £100bn for roads instead?
    Every HGV they get off the road is a benefit. They won't get every HGV off the road, but we should aim to get every one off the road we can - and that's great for large, frequent point-to-point loads.

    One issue is that railfreight got addicted on trainload coal. Routes were designed to take coal from Merthyr to Swansea, or Kellingly to Willington. We're now in a world where the point-to-point endpoints are very different. This problem is typified by the Shaftholme Flyover near Doncaster, which was designed to mainly take coal trains off the route. Except it opened in 2014, after most of that traffic had disappeared ...

    And the point-to-point routes for other railfreight tends to be longer distance than the old pit-to-power routes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    75 doctors in South Florida walkout in protest as their hospital is flooded with unvaccinated people who got COVID. #MorningJoe

    Surely that’s a breach of medical ethics?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited August 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain why, when we have a chronic labour shortage, the government is still paying a couple of million people to sit on their arses with the furlough scheme?

    The people still on furlough can't realistically still have a job if they still aren't needed when everything is open and things like hospitality are under manned she-personned.
    I know restaurant and hotel owners who can't get their furloughed staff back, because the staff took the furlough money and went to work for other people on the sly, and the staff have found they prefer the new job

    We have probably wasted many billions in fraud
    Reminds me of the way that whenever there's a tube strike a lot of people discover the route they've been using for years isn't the best one.
    They find walking is better?
    Sometimes, but usually they find a different combination of tube line journeys is better than the one they've been using.
This discussion has been closed.