Not my type of bet but the 1/8 Ladbrokes are offering for a Labour win at Wythenshawe is not going to get any better value with them as the only possible money will be for Labour as long as it's UKIP no offers due to the liabilities taken in the plunge from 20s to 4s.Paddy Power is offering 1/20.There is no Betfair market but those on UKIP at big odds have a lay marker in the 11/2 offered by PP so the potential for future arbing privately.Even if the 11/2 is taken,I cannot see PP going any longer than the 1-8 on offer from Ladbrokes.
I expect there to be a Betfair market once the by election is called .
The State of the Nation poll has tracked opinion among 16-75 year olds since 2012: the number of people feeling optimistic about the economy has tripled in that time, from 9 per cent to 29 per cent. The number feeling pessimistic still remains higher, but it has halved in two years from 74 per cent in 2012 to 40 per cent
On independence the majority of Scots (58 per cent) predict that there will be a no vote, while one in five expect Alex Salmond to prevail. That reflects the persistent trend in Scottish polling: this survey shows that is currently a shared preference across Scotland, Wales and England too.
The State of the Nation poll has tracked opinion among 16-75 year olds since 2012: the number of people feeling optimistic about the economy has tripled in that time, from 9 per cent to 29 per cent. The number feeling pessimistic still remains higher, but it has halved in two years from 74 per cent in 2012 to 40 per cent
On independence the majority of Scots (58 per cent) predict that there will be a no vote, while one in five expect Alex Salmond to prevail. That reflects the persistent trend in Scottish polling: this survey shows that is currently a shared preference across Scotland, Wales and England too.
The State of the Nation poll finds very little English appetite for the Scots to depart. 19 per cent in England support Scottish independence, while 43 per cent are against it, and others indifferent or undecided.
Asked what Britain’s long-term approach should be, 28% would like to leave the European Union, while 38 per cent would prefer to stay in but reduce the EU’s powers. Just eight per cent support the status quo, and nine per cent want to see more EU powers.
While 73 per cent of UKIP supporters would leave the EU, only 29 per cent of Conservative supporters make that choice. 57 per cent of Conservatives would prefer to stay in while reducing the EU’s powers. That is also the most popular choice for both Labour (41 per cent) and Liberal Democrat (43 per cent) voters. 14 per cent of Liberal Democrats would prefer to see an increase in the EU’s powers – including three per cent who want to work for a single European government. That is also the ambition of one per cent of Conservative voters. http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/01/from-sundersays-the-national-mood-for-2014-keep-calm-and-muddle-on.html
Also, had a letter in today's Times about Scottish independence
So thats 28% who want to leave and 38% who are going to find that their wish to reduce EU powers is simply not possible. The interesting question is what those 38% (plus the 8% who want the status quo) are going to do when they find their choice is just a pipe dream.
Absolutely right. But (a) they were Scottish Labour MPs led from London Labour HQ in a government led by Gordon Brown, which was pretty unionist, so the concept of a Scpttish MP is perhaps a bit of an oxymoron in that context (there being no such thing as the Scottish Labour Party); and (b) as I point out on the other thread, contrary to popular myth the vote also affected the Scots directly, because of the Barnett consequentials arising from the supposedly English-only budget changes, so it was perfectly legitimate for the Scottish MPs to vote in that division, as did the SNPs and LDs. The Scots as we all know ended up losing the money and had to keep the status quo by doing without something else, which is what happened in due course. I suspect Westminster and Whitehall just assumed the Scots would roll over and play dead, and had not considered the implications of devolution.
Incidentally, I mentioned this just now to my partner who works in universities and she instantly pointed out what si of course obvious on a little reflection, that it's a myth that the English tuition fees have been taken off the public budget - an unknown but significant proportion will end up as bad debt thanks to people never earning over the qualifying limit to start paying back, emigrating, etc. etc. So when you add that and the admin costs of the Student Loan Company I really wonder how much of a saving it makes to the public budget in the long run, especially given the concerns expressed of late about the SLC being a future Northern Rock or Co-op. In this sense, I suppose, the SNP policy could be seen, like its policy on PPP and PFI, as one of fiscal rectitude.
The 2004 vote on Tuition fes was won by 5 votes, including a lot of Scots.
Ah, the SLC, that chocolate teapot. I gave them my address a year ago, my parents got a letter from them the other day saying they were having trouble contacting me. Amateurs.
The State of the Nation poll has tracked opinion among 16-75 year olds since 2012: the number of people feeling optimistic about the economy has tripled in that time, from 9 per cent to 29 per cent. The number feeling pessimistic still remains higher, but it has halved in two years from 74 per cent in 2012 to 40 per cent
On independence the majority of Scots (58 per cent) predict that there will be a no vote, while one in five expect Alex Salmond to prevail. That reflects the persistent trend in Scottish polling: this survey shows that is currently a shared preference across Scotland, Wales and England too.
Also, had a letter in today's Times about Scottish independence
Its even more interesting if you ignore Sunder Katwala's rather prejudiced analysis and read the actual data sheets posted on Mori (which I've twice linked on the Conhome thread only to find they've conveniently disappeared completely ~ not a trace)
My favourite observation by Katwala is the one about the % of UKIP supporters who think England won't get past the first round in the world cup. He fails to mention that a plurality of all those surveyed don't think England will get past the first round and 2.5 times as many Labour supporters and twice as many Tory supporters think England won't get past the first round. But of course the UKIP figure is the most significant.
Other intriguing little tidbits include:
Only half of all Labour supporters will be supporting England A bigger share of Labour supporters will be supporting other countries A bigger share of Labour supporters think England will win the World Cup
Most of it is pretty innocuous stuff except in the hands of Katwala. Isn't it wonderful that British Future is such an unbiased organisation. There again given Katwala was formerly Gen Sec of the Fabian Society what do you expect?
What's Clegg on about? We already have single party government. Nothing ever changes whichever one(s) you elect. They parade as a chamber of horrors trying to tempt you to vote to keep one or another of them out of office. In truth they all work for the same studio. Clegg clearly hopes to be the only one who stays at the cabinet table whichever side 'wins'.
3: Adequate Labour majority: there would be an early panic but I have sufficient faith in Ed Ball's dishonesty to hope that he'd be more sensible than he sounds
Ed Ball's !!!
I fear Avery will be aiming apostrophe comments at you.
I have a rather distressing but ultimately uplifting personal tale to share with PBers.
This afternoon I had to deal with a shocking experience which I have to say fair took the wind out of my sails. Being completely unprepared for the event only compounded my distress. I'm still reeling from the event.
In many ways today was just an ordinary Sunday afternoon. We don't always have a Sunday joint but today we decided at the last minute - "Well, why not?".
So, with innocent purpose, my purple and black spotted shopping trolley bag in tow, I set off expeditiously to our local Waitrose. An experienced observer of my demeanour may well have noted an uncommon jauntiness to my gait.
And then! Horror of horrors! On arrival at the store I discovered the self check out guns were temporarily disabled! I felt sick and disorientated. Somehow, despite my vertiginous state, I managed to stumble my way towards the help desk, in seek of assistance. Imagine my joy when I discovered that they had just rectified the problem!
I tell you what, it was quite a scary moment. It has taught me not to take anything for granted in future.
Richard It depends what deal Cameron can wrangle out of Merkel
Are you not aware of what William Hague said today regarding that letter to Cameron from his backbenchers:
He told the Murnaghan show on Sky News: "If national parliaments all around the European Union were regularly and unilaterally just able to chose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn't well then the European single market wouldn't work.
Which if I recall correctly is pretty much what Barroso said about the return of sovereignty to Westminster. Based on that the only powers coming back are those Germany and others collectively want back themselves. In short 'not a lot'.
Thanks for that link. The bit that always gets me is that it is qualified "such as... is necessary... in the interests of the economic wellbeing of the country". I'm pretty sure importing huge numbers of religious nuts from Somalia isn't in the economic wellbeing in the UK.
I'm far from convinced, as an LD, that the bulk of the Party is actively seeking Coalition-style arrangement post-2015 even if one were available. The experience of Government has been informative and chastening in possibly equal measure.
Undoubtedly there have been successes - I think Steve Webb and Danny Alexander have done very well. Others, perhaps more comfortable in an adversarial relationship with the Conservatives have struggled. I suspect those closely involved will argue that, as professional politicians, the chance to be even a small part of the decision-making process is infinitely preferable to the comfortable futility of Opposition.
That may not sit well with some activists and Party members for whom the events of 2010, at a stroke, erased a generation of progress. I've said on here before that the Party moved away from its social democratic base in the 2005-10 Parliament and that Nick Clegg is the most liberal leader of the Party (at least in economic terms) since Jo Grimond.
I understand Nick arguing for the status quo and I certainly understand him arguing the benefit (as he sees it) for the country of Coalition-style Government but I fear the problem is the LDs may want to dance but neither the Conservatives nor Labour want to partner or even to respond to the invitation.
On topic. It will be interesting to see how Cameron responds to this "Coalition ploy" by Clegg if it becomes a Libdem mantra because it is clear from Ashcroft's project blueprint poll that there are even fewer Tories (only 1 in 5) than Kippers (1 in 3) who would prefer Coalition to a Tory Majority.
It seems to me if Cameron does not respond to such a narrative with a robust rejection he will undermine his own support and that aspect of UKIP support he's hoping to win back.
smithersjones I voted Tory in 2010 but may vote LD in 2015 as the deficit is still not sorted and I prefer a Tory-LD coalition to a Tory or Labour majority in 2015. If the result is something like Tories 39%, Labour 36%, LD 13% another Tory-LD Coalition is almost inevitable!
Richard It depends what deal Cameron can wrangle out of Merkel
Are you not aware of what William Hague said today regarding that letter to Cameron from his backbenchers:
He told the Murnaghan show on Sky News: "If national parliaments all around the European Union were regularly and unilaterally just able to chose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn't well then the European single market wouldn't work.
Which if I recall correctly is pretty much what Barroso said about the return of sovereignty to Westminster. Based on that the only powers coming back are those Germany and others collectively want back themselves. In short 'not a lot'.
Clegg's pitch is bonkers. At the election we will have a choice of either a Tory government or a Labour government as we've had ever since the old Liberal party fell over. To those people opposed to the government the LibDem element is seen as an enabling engine for Tory policies, so voting yellow and expecting anything other than the continuation of blue government is too big a risk.
Or for those opposed to Labour and scar(r)ed by the Brown era, the sight of Clegg leading his MP loyally through the government lobby to vote for all those Labour policies they both opposed for 5 years is offensive.
So I come back to my basic premise arrived at in late May 2010. If you don't like the government you'll vote Labour to get rid. If you like the government you'll vote Tory. If you hate them all you'll vote for UKIP. Party ideologues will vote tribally, everyone else will vote for the least worst of the two governments on offer, or they'll vote UKIP because they hate them all.
I still cannot fathom a reason to vote LibDem unless you are a party member and even then if you are in the large faction who despises the things your MPs have voted for the option to fall out of government, change the leader and try and rebuild things must have significant appeal. Remember that ideologically pure people faced with options of a sell out or opposition always choose opposition. From what I see/hear/read Clegg is the sell out that has driven so many party voters activists and members away. If his own party don't want the perpetual Petain option why would voters?
Clegg's pitch is bonkers. At the election we will have a choice of either a Tory government or a Labour government as we've had ever since the old Liberal party fell over. To those people opposed to the government the LibDem element is seen as an enabling engine for Tory policies, so voting yellow and expecting anything other than the continuation of blue government is too big a risk.
Or for those opposed to Labour and scar(r)ed by the Brown era, the sight of Clegg leading his MP loyally through the government lobby to vote for all those Labour policies they both opposed for 5 years is offensive.
So I come back to my basic premise arrived at in late May 2010. If you don't like the government you'll vote Labour to get rid. If you like the government you'll vote Tory. If you hate them all you'll vote for UKIP. Party ideologues will vote tribally, everyone else will vote for the least worst of the two governments on offer, or they'll vote UKIP because they hate them all.
I still cannot fathom a reason to vote LibDem unless you are a party member and even then if you are in the large faction who despises the things your MPs have voted for the option to fall out of government, change the leader and try and rebuild things must have significant appeal. Remember that ideologically pure people faced with options of a sell out or opposition always choose opposition. From what I see/hear/read Clegg is the sell out that has driven so many party voters activists and members away. If his own party don't want the perpetual Petain option why would voters?
Clegg`s interview on Marr was impressive.Reminded me of the bounce he had at the debates in 2010.
But it is a bizarre to ask for people to vote so that the Lib Dems can go into coalition with Tories or Labour especially when the Lib Dem brand is trashed.
If the country wanted that,they would have voted for AV.
smithersjones I voted Tory in 2010 but may vote LD in 2015 as the deficit is still not sorted and I prefer a Tory-LD coalition to a Tory or Labour majority in 2015. If the result is something like Tories 39%, Labour 36%, LD 13% another Tory-LD Coalition is almost inevitable!
1) Those figures you suggest are more than a long shot. Very few Governments have increased their vote share in their second election and none IIRC in modern times have done so at an end of term election.
2) I don't believe Cameron and Clegg will be able to agree another Coalition agreement that would be acceptable to the PCP. Whatever deal was struck (requiring compromises over EU, HRA, Immigration, English Question, Energy, Climate Change etc etc etc) would do severe damage to Cameron's position with the PCP and potentially lead to a challenge to Cameron's leadership.
3) If a coalition looks likely Cameron will not win back a large proportion of UKIP voters that your 39% is dependent on. 39% if you ask me in the circumstances is a pipe-dream
Richard It depends what deal Cameron can wrangle out of Merkel
Are you not aware of what William Hague said today regarding that letter to Cameron from his backbenchers:
He told the Murnaghan show on Sky News: "If national parliaments all around the European Union were regularly and unilaterally just able to chose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn't well then the European single market wouldn't work.
Which if I recall correctly is pretty much what Barroso said about the return of sovereignty to Westminster. Based on that the only powers coming back are those Germany and others collectively want back themselves. In short 'not a lot'.
There going to be tears in the Tory Party before long
PS I hadn't realised that Hague had a new job as Barroso's London spokesman
But if you can gather support to change rules on a universal basis, benefiting all nations (imo), then it would work.
And if pigs could fly we'd all be walking around sporting reinforced umbrellas
Lets just take free movement of Labour. How many countries do you seriously think want to restrict free movement of Labour in the EU.for example? I suspect it is no more than about 6. You are not going to get the sort of consensus required under QMV to get change. Its as simple as that.
Wilson did in 1966, Eden did in 1955. Of course we have no precedent post war for a Coalition government seeking re-election
If the Tories are the largest party Clegg will have to stick to his promise to go with the party with the largest number of votes, if he refuses to deal with a rightwinger or any other Tory leader than Cameron the Tories will have to lump it too to stay in office. Labour anyway having clearly failed to win would probably dump Miliband and want to rebuild under a new leader and would refuse a coalition with Clegg's LDs who they can't stand anyway
If the Tories win back some of those UKIP supporters more may follow to try and keep the LDs out, but probably not enough to win a Tory majority
3) If a coalition looks likely Cameron will not win back a large proportion of UKIP voters that your 39% is dependent on.
I think Lord Ashcroft's polling said that there were more current-UKIP supporters who would choose to vote Conservative to 'stop Labour', than had switched Con>UKIP. (they were two different groups though).
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
Yes and there was at least four betting posts tonight. That many eh?
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
**** Opens another bag of popcorn and enjoys the right wing handbags ****
As not only a card carrying member of the Labour party but a member of the "Labour Left" Facebook group can I put a word in for those of us with a non-right viewpoint? Mind you as a child benefit charge paying (grrr) sales manager who spends the working week maximising profit delivery, many of you would consider me to be in the wrong party. Its just that there is a world of difference between commerce and asset stripping, and a capitalist system where the idea os to pay the workers so little that they can't afford to feed themselves never mind pay for your product/service seems to have lost its way. As Henry Ford's ghost.
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
Yes and there was at least four betting posts tonight. That many eh?
LOL
To be honest, I don't come here for the betting, although I know that is the premise behind the site. I just like the witty banter, links to news, twitter and the like. It's a bit samey, at the minute, though. It's lost a couple of premier league posters, and the threads always seem to drift into UKIP vs Tory. Maybe that's just because UKIP to seem to have a bit of mojo at the minute. There is a definite lack of decent Labour posters, notwithstanding that Southam, NP and a very few others hold up their end very well. Dunno what the answer is.
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
**** Opens another bag of popcorn and enjoys the right wing handbags ****
Well, that's quite simple to explain. Right-wingers tend to want what is best for the country and the people who live in it, and therefore argue heatedly about exactly what that means, and the best way of achieving it.
Labourites just want Labour to be in power, and f*** the country.
What you call "right wing handbags" is actually this little thing called debate. Something, being a Labourite, you'd know little about.
As not only a card carrying member of the Labour party but a member of the "Labour Left" Facebook group can I put a word in for those of us with a non-right viewpoint? Mind you as a child benefit charge paying (grrr) sales manager who spends the working week maximising profit delivery, many of you would consider me to be in the wrong party. Its just that there is a world of difference between commerce and asset stripping, and a capitalist system where the idea os to pay the workers so little that they can't afford to feed themselves never mind pay for your product/service seems to have lost its way. As Henry Ford's ghost.
Mr Pioneer I would save your fingers. There has been a recent scorched earth policy on lefties. The only thing that is of any interest is yellow boxes and profit.
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
**** Opens another bag of popcorn and enjoys the right wing handbags ****
Well, that's quite simple to explain. Right-wingers tend to want what is best for the country and the people who live in it, and therefore argue heatedly about exactly what that means, and the best way of achieving it.
Labourites just want Labour to be in power, and f*** the country.
What you call "right wing handbags" is actually this little thing called debate. Something, being a Labourite, you'd know little about.
All, naturally enough, ;-)
Show me the crossover, Show me the crossover. As someone once kept saying.
Wilson did in 1966, Eden did in 1955. Of course we have no precedent post war for a Coalition government seeking re-election
If the Tories are the largest party Clegg will have to stick to his promise to go with the party with the largest number of votes, if he refuses to deal with a rightwinger or any other Tory leader than Cameron the Tories will have to lump it too to stay in office. Labour anyway having clearly failed to win would probably dump Miliband and want to rebuild under a new leader and would refuse a coalition with Clegg's LDs who they can't stand anyway
If the Tories win back some of those UKIP supporters more may follow to try and keep the LDs out, but probably not enough to win a Tory majority
As I said good luck with your choice. I think you'll be disappointed.
"My reading is that the LDs will go into GE2015 as the party of coalition making the case for coalition."
Highlighting to the voters that the toxic Clegg would be in charge of coalition negotiations yet again as well as the obvious fact that the less lib dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament. Clegg will then be spending most of his time during the election campaign answering hundreds of questions from journos on what is or is not a 'red line' for a coalition. That won't be uncomfortable after the tuition fees debacle and so much else. Sounds like a winner.
There is certainly one poster's absence that from my side of the fence has made threads on PB a lot more interesting and less acrimonious. And it's not tim or SeanT.
It's amazing how unpleasant and right-wing this board has become with the hyproctical return of certain posters.
There certainly are a lot of righties on here now, it tends to be Tory vs UKIP, with a smattering of LDs chipping in. Poor old Southam has his hands full!
Yes and there was at least four betting posts tonight. That many eh?
LOL
To be honest, I don't come here for the betting, although I know that is the premise behind the site. I just like the witty banter, links to news, twitter and the like. It's a bit samey, at the minute, though. It's lost a couple of premier league posters, and the threads always seem to drift into UKIP vs Tory. Maybe that's just because UKIP to seem to have a bit of mojo at the minute. There is a definite lack of decent Labour posters, notwithstanding that Southam, NP and a very few others hold up their end very well. Dunno what the answer is.
Rochdale Good to have your views, of course while on average certain occupations lean right or left not everyone in those professions will do so, Ronald Reagan was an actor, one of the most liberal/left professions there is!
There is certainly one poster's absence that from my side of the fence has made threads on PB a lot more interesting and less acrimonious. And it's not tim or SeanT.
Rubbish. Stuarttruth was a high point on the site for comedy.
Possible UKIP defection likely if they win the coming elections, and possibly if they don't win but do really well.
That's what I am hearing.
What defection? You are not very clear here. Elucidate!
Sorry, one sitting Con MP (possibly more) seriously considering defecting to UKIP. Not really news as we all know but heard from a journalist friend the possibility is becoming stronger everyday and the Euro elections will be the tipping point.
The letter to Cameron is by all accounts a smoking gun.
3) If a coalition looks likely Cameron will not win back a large proportion of UKIP voters that your 39% is dependent on.
I think Lord Ashcroft's polling said that there were more current-UKIP supporters who would choose to vote Conservative to 'stop Labour', than had switched Con>UKIP. (they were two different groups though).
I haven't been able to locate the "stop Labour" question but I did find where it said 38% of UKIP supporters would seriously consider voting Tory. On the other hand 72% of UKIP voters said they were moving away from the Tories. As always, these things are as clear as mud
My main problem with this site isn't the debate its that threats move at a rate of knots and with a job and three kids I can't live on here as some people appear to do.
Anyway. Where I hope to fit right in is my loathing of the yellow pox. I believe thats a fairly popular viewpoint of PB Tories. Then again I think things they don't like such as (a) UKIP voters aren't automatically their voters who will wander back en masse and (b) Regardless of what the official stats say people are broke and there is no recovery for them - go ask a supermarket.
Where I agree is that I think the global economy is utterly fracked and we are to drown ourselves in debt. Where I disagree is that the solution to the collapse of free market economics is more free markets. The system is dead and this year I expect parts (nations) to start falling off like the dead flesh they are. I just hope that the traditional solution to a large surplus economically inactive population isn't enacted again as it was in 1914
It wasn't the need to be "ideologically pure" that rejected Ken Clarke. It was simply not wanting to be a europhile party at a time of critical importance. If Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke was personally supporting the Euro, and the Tory party was neutral on it, Blair would have pushed heavily on it, and could have won a referendum. Unemployment right now would likely be at Irish levels.
So the Tory party was prepared accept IDS, a clearly defective leader, rather than Clarke who had the look of a vote winner, over an issue that had little salience.
I thought you were barmy then and that you are barmy now.
Wait till you see what they are prepared to accept if they lose in 2015. It will be the tory party's very own GOP circus type hilarity.
Tory MPs and activists will do almost anything to be able to posture on the EU and immigration again without Farage popping up every single time spoiling it for them. To be in power with with Farage easily out posturing them is bad enough. To be in opposition with Farage doing so, while still pointing out the tory party has the same position on wanting to stay IN the EU as the labour 'europhiles', would be absolutely unbearable for them. The prospect of another five years of being forced on the backfoot on some of their favourite topics and outgunned every single time by Farage and the kippers ensures that any future tory leadership contest will not be focused on who is or is not electable. Nor will it be the first time.
Rochdale Good to have your views, of course while on average certain occupations lean right or left not everyone in those professions will do so, Ronald Reagan was an actor, one of the most liberal/left professions there is!
Actors tend to be loud, bitchy, insecure, self-obsessed, selfish and will do anything for a part even if it means destroying friends and colleagues. They are quintessential rightists.
Rochdale Good to have your views, of course while on average certain occupations lean right or left not everyone in those professions will do so, Ronald Reagan was an actor, one of the most liberal/left professions there is!
Actors tend to be loud, bitchy, insecure, self-obsessed, selfish and will do anything for a part even if it means destroying friends and colleagues. They are quintessential rightists.
I look forward to Eddie Izzard, Glenda Jackson and Tony Robinson confirming that!
Smithers Southam They also tend to be pacifist, socially liberal and like to bash the private sector. Try being a Republican in Hollywood and getting a part! Anyway, it was just an example, there may even be a few Tory legal aid and human rights' lawyers, social workers, gender studies lecturers and guardian and bbc journalists!
Smithers Polls show voters do not want a Tory majority, but also do not want Ed Miliband as PM. Result, both main parties are likely to be disappointed and Clegg will be punished and lose seats but still have enough to ensure the Coalition endures to sort out the public finances!
Actors tend to be loud, bitchy, insecure, self-obsessed, selfish and will do anything for a part even if it means destroying friends and colleagues. They are quintessential rightists.
My main problem with this site isn't the debate its that threats move at a rate of knots and with a job and three kids I can't live on here as some people appear to do.
Anyway. Where I hope to fit right in is my loathing of the yellow pox. I believe thats a fairly popular viewpoint of PB Tories. Then again I think things they don't like such as (a) UKIP voters aren't automatically their voters who will wander back en masse and (b) Regardless of what the official stats say people are broke and there is no recovery for them - go ask a supermarket.
Where I agree is that I think the global economy is utterly fracked and we are to drown ourselves in debt. Where I disagree is that the solution to the collapse of free market economics is more free markets. The system is dead and this year I expect parts (nations) to start falling off like the dead flesh they are. I just hope that the traditional solution to a large surplus economically inactive population isn't enacted again as it was in 1914
If you think its a failure of free markets perhaps you would care to explain where the free markets are?
After all we don't have free markets in this country, do we.
Karl Rove: Chris Christie's Bridge Scandal Response Gives 'Street Cred' with Tea Party: GOP establishment figu... http://bit.ly/1hMuJLz
This Karl Rove lest we forget.
Poor old PB Romneys. Always wrong.
The problem Christie now faces is not that he didn't know it was going on but that nobody with half a brain thinks that Christie would have been unhappy with his staffs actions if they had not been caught.
If you think its a failure of free markets perhaps you would care to explain where the free markets are?
After all we don't have free markets in this country, do we.
In the head of Tories. There are very few free markets, thats the point. We insisted there was out of dogmatic zeal, and pitted out free to compete coal mines and shipbuilding and rail building and steel works against the subsidised and therefore rigged free to compete foreign competitors. Then shrugged our shoulders as they were all sold/shut, after all its free market economics so it must be good, and the right people made a short term profit.
Then a decade later the very same people whine about how unbalanced whats left of the economy has become. There is a reason why high cost high waged unionised economies like Germany still have industry and still own industry and we do not - they didn't think the market was free and acted accordingly.
Karl Rove: Chris Christie's Bridge Scandal Response Gives 'Street Cred' with Tea Party: GOP establishment figu... http://bit.ly/1hMuJLz
This Karl Rove lest we forget.
Poor old PB Romneys. Always wrong.
The problem Christie now faces is not that he didn't know it was going on but that nobody with half a brain thinks that Christie would have been unhappy with his staffs actions if they had not been caught.
Politicians always look shifty when they start blaming staffers, Spads etc for that which was done for their benefit (however misguided that may be) and they then claim to be upset over.
They represented Christie and ostensibly did his bidding. So if they represent you and have any power then you had better be certain they aren't incompetent or out of control because the 'I knew nothing about it' answer is never particularly convincing to anyone without cast iron proof to the contrary.
It's why politicians who try to get others to do the dirty with just a nod or a wink get into trouble so often. If you don't give the staff/spads any boundaries they'll not just cross them but leap over them.
Smithers Polls show voters do not want a Tory majority, but also do not want Ed Miliband as PM. Result, both main parties are likely to be disappointed and Clegg will be punished and lose seats but still have enough to ensure the Coalition endures to sort out the public finances!
Labour and Libdems do not want a Tory majority, UKIP voters to a lesser extent. They make up the majority of voters so that's no surprise. Equally Libdems, UKIP and Tories plus others (again a majority) don't want Ed Miliband as PM. That's hardly a surprise.
But here's the thing. How are the voters going to know which seats to let each party win to ensure a coalition? The idea that the electorate somehow decide to concoct a coalition under FPTP is a myth.
Smithers They did it in 2010 though didn't they, so if the end result is largely status quo with a couple of Tory seats lost to Labour and some more LD seats split between Labour and the Tories another Coalition is what we will get!
Smithers They did it in 2010 though didn't they, so if the end result is largely status quo with a couple of Tory seats lost to Labour and some more LD seats split between Labour and the Tories another Coalition is what we will get!
Thats your opinion. Personally I don't think Cameron will come close to saving his job. I expect Labour to win by 3-5 points on vote shares and turnout similar to 2005. The main difference from that election being that a reduced Libdem vote share will be offset by an increased UKIP vote share.
Not only that but with Clegg peddling a coalition mantra those Libdems who upped sticks to Labour immediately after the general election because of the coalition won't be returning to the Libdems and will inflate the Labour total sufficiently to see them home.
Luckily nobody has tried to host the equivalent for the Left as you'd break the internet.
A brief look, though, reveals that Olivia Wilde is a lefty. My dreams are shattered. I am distraught. I should have guessed that she couldn't have beauty *and* brains.
Possible UKIP defection likely if they win the coming elections, and possibly if they don't win but do really well.
That's what I am hearing.
What defection? You are not very clear here. Elucidate!
Sorry, one sitting Con MP (possibly more) seriously considering defecting to UKIP. Not really news as we all know but heard from a journalist friend the possibility is becoming stronger everyday and the Euro elections will be the tipping point.
The letter to Cameron is by all accounts a smoking gun.
3) If a coalition looks likely Cameron will not win back a large proportion of UKIP voters that your 39% is dependent on.
I think Lord Ashcroft's polling said that there were more current-UKIP supporters who would choose to vote Conservative to 'stop Labour', than had switched Con>UKIP. (they were two different groups though).
I haven't been able to locate the "stop Labour" question but I did find where it said 38% of UKIP supporters would seriously consider voting Tory. On the other hand 72% of UKIP voters said they were moving away from the Tories. As always, these things are as clear as mud
I think I was confusing Survation with Ashcroft.
In their recent marginals poll they had a squeeze question: Rather Vote UKIP 53%, rather stop Miliband 33%.
In the head of Tories. There are very few free markets, thats the point. We insisted there was out of dogmatic zeal, and pitted out free to compete coal mines and shipbuilding and rail building and steel works against the subsidised and therefore rigged free to compete foreign competitors. Then shrugged our shoulders as they were all sold/shut, after all its free market economics so it must be good, and the right people made a short term profit.
Now you are admitting that we don't have free markets in this country I expect you to apologise for saying:-
""Where I disagree is that the solution to the collapse of free market economics is more free markets""
You are clearly contradicting yourself and have now been found out.
SmithersJones 36% is what I gave Labour anyway and includes all the LDs who have now gone to Labour and is about the same score Labour got in 2005. But we shall see!
Comments
The State of the Nation poll has tracked opinion among 16-75 year olds since 2012: the number of people feeling optimistic about the economy has tripled in that time, from 9 per cent to 29 per cent. The number feeling pessimistic still remains higher, but it has halved in two years from 74 per cent in 2012 to 40 per cent
On independence the majority of Scots (58 per cent) predict that there will be a no vote, while one in five expect Alex Salmond to prevail. That reflects the persistent trend in Scottish polling: this survey shows that is currently a shared preference across Scotland, Wales and England too.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/01/from-sundersays-the-national-mood-for-2014-keep-calm-and-muddle-on.html
Also, had a letter in today's Times about Scottish independence
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3328/State-of-the-Nation-2014.aspx
My favourite observation by Katwala is the one about the % of UKIP supporters who think England won't get past the first round in the world cup. He fails to mention that a plurality of all those surveyed don't think England will get past the first round and 2.5 times as many Labour supporters and twice as many Tory supporters think England won't get past the first round. But of course the UKIP figure is the most significant.
Other intriguing little tidbits include:
Only half of all Labour supporters will be supporting England
A bigger share of Labour supporters will be supporting other countries
A bigger share of Labour supporters think England will win the World Cup
Most of it is pretty innocuous stuff except in the hands of Katwala. Isn't it wonderful that British Future is such an unbiased organisation. There again given Katwala was formerly Gen Sec of the Fabian Society what do you expect?
I fear Avery will be aiming apostrophe comments at you.
This afternoon I had to deal with a shocking experience which I have to say fair took the wind out of my sails. Being completely unprepared for the event only compounded my distress. I'm still reeling from the event.
In many ways today was just an ordinary Sunday afternoon. We don't always have a Sunday joint but today we decided at the last minute - "Well, why not?".
So, with innocent purpose, my purple and black spotted shopping trolley bag in tow, I set off expeditiously to our local Waitrose. An experienced observer of my demeanour may well have noted an uncommon jauntiness to my gait.
And then! Horror of horrors! On arrival at the store I discovered the self check out guns were temporarily disabled! I felt sick and disorientated. Somehow, despite my vertiginous state, I managed to stumble my way towards the help desk, in seek of assistance. Imagine my joy when I discovered that they had just rectified the problem!
I tell you what, it was quite a scary moment. It has taught me not to take anything for granted in future.
Never glad morning again!
He told the Murnaghan show on Sky News: "If national parliaments all around the European Union were regularly and unilaterally just able to chose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn't well then the European single market wouldn't work.
Which if I recall correctly is pretty much what Barroso said about the return of sovereignty to Westminster. Based on that the only powers coming back are those Germany and others collectively want back themselves. In short 'not a lot'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10566611/William-Hague-Tory-rebels-not-realistic-on-Europe.html
There going to be tears in the Tory Party before long
PS I hadn't realised that Hague had a new job as Barroso's London spokesman
Thanks for that link. The bit that always gets me is that it is qualified "such as... is necessary... in the interests of the economic wellbeing of the country". I'm pretty sure importing huge numbers of religious nuts from Somalia isn't in the economic wellbeing in the UK.
I'm far from convinced, as an LD, that the bulk of the Party is actively seeking Coalition-style arrangement post-2015 even if one were available. The experience of Government has been informative and chastening in possibly equal measure.
Undoubtedly there have been successes - I think Steve Webb and Danny Alexander have done very well. Others, perhaps more comfortable in an adversarial relationship with the Conservatives have struggled. I suspect those closely involved will argue that, as professional politicians, the chance to be even a small part of the decision-making process is infinitely preferable to the comfortable futility of Opposition.
That may not sit well with some activists and Party members for whom the events of 2010, at a stroke, erased a generation of progress. I've said on here before that the Party moved away from its social democratic base in the 2005-10 Parliament and that Nick Clegg is the most liberal leader of the Party (at least in economic terms) since Jo Grimond.
I understand Nick arguing for the status quo and I certainly understand him arguing the benefit (as he sees it) for the country of Coalition-style Government but I fear the problem is the LDs may want to dance but neither the Conservatives nor Labour want to partner or even to respond to the invitation.
It seems to me if Cameron does not respond to such a narrative with a robust rejection he will undermine his own support and that aspect of UKIP support he's hoping to win back.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/01/project-blueprint-phase-4-the-proceeds-of-growth/
Domenico Berardi of Sassuolo bags a Hat Trick at 150/1...
Or for those opposed to Labour and scar(r)ed by the Brown era, the sight of Clegg leading his MP loyally through the government lobby to vote for all those Labour policies they both opposed for 5 years is offensive.
So I come back to my basic premise arrived at in late May 2010. If you don't like the government you'll vote Labour to get rid. If you like the government you'll vote Tory. If you hate them all you'll vote for UKIP. Party ideologues will vote tribally, everyone else will vote for the least worst of the two governments on offer, or they'll vote UKIP because they hate them all.
I still cannot fathom a reason to vote LibDem unless you are a party member and even then if you are in the large faction who despises the things your MPs have voted for the option to fall out of government, change the leader and try and rebuild things must have significant appeal. Remember that ideologically pure people faced with options of a sell out or opposition always choose opposition. From what I see/hear/read Clegg is the sell out that has driven so many party voters activists and members away. If his own party don't want the perpetual Petain option why would voters?
But it is a bizarre to ask for people to vote so that the Lib Dems can go into coalition with Tories or Labour especially when the Lib Dem brand is trashed.
If the country wanted that,they would have voted for AV.
2) I don't believe Cameron and Clegg will be able to agree another Coalition agreement that would be acceptable to the PCP. Whatever deal was struck (requiring compromises over EU, HRA, Immigration, English Question, Energy, Climate Change etc etc etc) would do severe damage to Cameron's position with the PCP and potentially lead to a challenge to Cameron's leadership.
3) If a coalition looks likely Cameron will not win back a large proportion of UKIP voters that your 39% is dependent on. 39% if you ask me in the circumstances is a pipe-dream
Good luck with your choice though!
Lets just take free movement of Labour. How many countries do you seriously think want to restrict free movement of Labour in the EU.for example? I suspect it is no more than about 6. You are not going to get the sort of consensus required under QMV to get change. Its as simple as that.
If the Tories are the largest party Clegg will have to stick to his promise to go with the party with the largest number of votes, if he refuses to deal with a rightwinger or any other Tory leader than Cameron the Tories will have to lump it too to stay in office. Labour anyway having clearly failed to win would probably dump Miliband and want to rebuild under a new leader and would refuse a coalition with Clegg's LDs who they can't stand anyway
If the Tories win back some of those UKIP supporters more may follow to try and keep the LDs out, but probably not enough to win a Tory majority
' I suspect it is no more than about 6. You are not going to get the sort of consensus required under QMV to get change. Its as simple as that.'
If the 6 includes Germany then it will happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxVGw22SVFA
Poor old PB Romneys. Always wrong.
LOL
Number of each party's supporters who think England won't get past the 1st round
Total 602
Con 110 (18%)
Lab 154 (26%)
LD 23 (4%)
UKIP 63 (10%)
Not Identified 252 (42%)
Reports of UKIP scepticism are grossly exaggerated
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3328/State-of-the-Nation-2014.aspx
Poor old tory eurosceptics. Always wrong.
It's lost a couple of premier league posters, and the threads always seem to drift into UKIP vs Tory. Maybe that's just because UKIP to seem to have a bit of mojo at the minute. There is a definite lack of decent Labour posters, notwithstanding that Southam, NP and a very few others hold up their end very well.
Dunno what the answer is.
That's what I am hearing.
Labourites just want Labour to be in power, and f*** the country.
What you call "right wing handbags" is actually this little thing called debate. Something, being a Labourite, you'd know little about.
All, naturally enough, ;-)
Highlighting to the voters that the toxic Clegg would be in charge of coalition negotiations yet again as well as the obvious fact that the less lib dem MPs there are the less chance there is of a hung parliament. Clegg will then be spending most of his time during the election campaign answering hundreds of questions from journos on what is or is not a 'red line' for a coalition. That won't be uncomfortable after the tuition fees debacle and so much else. Sounds like a winner.
Rochdale Good to have your views, of course while on average certain occupations lean right or left not everyone in those professions will do so, Ronald Reagan was an actor, one of the most liberal/left professions there is!
The letter to Cameron is by all accounts a smoking gun.
Anyway. Where I hope to fit right in is my loathing of the yellow pox. I believe thats a fairly popular viewpoint of PB Tories. Then again I think things they don't like such as (a) UKIP voters aren't automatically their voters who will wander back en masse and (b) Regardless of what the official stats say people are broke and there is no recovery for them - go ask a supermarket.
Where I agree is that I think the global economy is utterly fracked and we are to drown ourselves in debt. Where I disagree is that the solution to the collapse of free market economics is more free markets. The system is dead and this year I expect parts (nations) to start falling off like the dead flesh they are. I just hope that the traditional solution to a large surplus economically inactive population isn't enacted again as it was in 1914
Tory MPs and activists will do almost anything to be able to posture on the EU and immigration again without Farage popping up every single time spoiling it for them.
To be in power with with Farage easily out posturing them is bad enough. To be in opposition with Farage doing so, while still pointing out the tory party has the same position on wanting to stay IN the EU as the labour 'europhiles', would be absolutely unbearable for them. The prospect of another five years of being forced on the backfoot on some of their favourite topics and outgunned every single time by Farage and the kippers ensures that any future tory leadership contest will not be focused on who is or is not electable. Nor will it be the first time.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/saynyet1.jpg
After all we don't have free markets in this country, do we.
So, clearly not a failure, then.
Poor old PB Romneys. Always wrong.
The problem Christie now faces is not that he didn't know it was going on but that nobody with half a brain thinks that Christie would have been unhappy with his staffs actions if they had not been caught.
Then a decade later the very same people whine about how unbalanced whats left of the economy has become. There is a reason why high cost high waged unionised economies like Germany still have industry and still own industry and we do not - they didn't think the market was free and acted accordingly.
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/129470/thread
Politicians always look shifty when they start blaming staffers, Spads etc for that which was done for their benefit (however misguided that may be) and they then claim to be upset over.
They represented Christie and ostensibly did his bidding. So if they represent you and have any power then you had better be certain they aren't incompetent or out of control because the 'I knew nothing about it' answer is never particularly convincing to anyone without cast iron proof to the contrary.
It's why politicians who try to get others to do the dirty with just a nod or a wink get into trouble so often. If you don't give the staff/spads any boundaries they'll not just cross them but leap over them.
But here's the thing. How are the voters going to know which seats to let each party win to ensure a coalition? The idea that the electorate somehow decide to concoct a coalition under FPTP is a myth.
Not only that but with Clegg peddling a coalition mantra those Libdems who upped sticks to Labour immediately after the general election because of the coalition won't be returning to the Libdems and will inflate the Labour total sufficiently to see them home.
Google gives us a list of 143 conservative actors/actresses. I've heard of about a fifth of them. And most of them are dead.
Luckily nobody has tried to host the equivalent for the Left as you'd break the internet.
A brief look, though, reveals that Olivia Wilde is a lefty. My dreams are shattered. I am distraught. I should have guessed that she couldn't have beauty *and* brains.
In their recent marginals poll they had a squeeze question:
Rather Vote UKIP 53%, rather stop Miliband 33%.
http://survation.com/2013/12/alan-bown-polls-4-new-constituencies/
""Where I disagree is that the solution to the collapse of free market economics is more free markets""
You are clearly contradicting yourself and have now been found out.