“Actually, if you look at some of the polls, there’s polls suggesting more people want another coalition of one description or another than they want a single party government. And by the way, I think they’re right, because I think right now for this country, the biggest risk to our economic recovery is a single party government of either left or right.,,”
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But once you get up into the tribal areas, and the countryside, then it looks more like Afghanistan
malcolmg said:
Fox, stick to the pertinent point , Scottish student can study in Romania for free whilst they are charged circa £9K to study in England. So you are telling me you cannot see fairness in the reciprocation of this principle. That it is fair for England to charge Scottish students a huge amount and yet expect Scotland to pay for all English students education. You seriously do not expect me to think that your are not intelligent enoug hto work out what is fair and proper given above circumstances. Can you name any other EU country that charges Scottish students for education.
...
Sorry Malcolm but you are utterly wrong on this. The issue is not whether other countries charge students - Scottish or otherwise - nor is it a matter of reciprocation. That is not the way the EU works. You can have different costs and charges in different countries. The important point under EU law is that within that country all EU citizens must be treated the same. So if education is free in Romania then Romanians may not charge Scottish (or other EU) students. If it costs 500 Euros a semester in Germany then that charge must be levied equally on German and other EU students. You cannot charge non Germans more as long as they are EU citizens.
The UK had a very strange internal arrangement because of devolution whereby it was possible for the Scots to charge English because they were part of the same state but not other EU citizens. If Scotland becomes independent that will end and you will no longer be allowed under EU law to charge English students whilst not charging students from any other EU country.
The obvious conclusion to all this is that we should better filter our immigrants so we get more of the Lahori business types and less of the Kashmiri extended families. Bringing back the primary purpose rule would be one good way of doing it, although David Cameron is probably too much of a hand-wringer to do it. Raising the income requirement would be another way. Unfortunately there's a host of other changes where the ECHR stops us from doing it, so we need to opt out of that.
On Conservative Home’s website, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee has said quite firmly that there will be a protocol that requires Tory MPs to vote on whether the party can join any coalition in the future.
http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/tory-mps-claim-veto-future-coalition/27209
Meanwhile the Gruaniad is shocked to discover childcare costs went up by 19% last year. No who would have thought if you tightly regulate childcare (which has the effect of reducing the number of childcare providers) and then give the taxpayers money to pay for it, the childcare providers would have put their fees up. Fancy that.
If Jacks ARSE is right, no coalition could confirm a working majority.
Look on the bright side, a six month govt followed by an autumn election would give us all further betting opportunities!
It's a good idea to do it, though. It forces the backbenchers to face up to the strategic choice their leaders are lumbered with, and makes it harder for them to destabilize it later.
2. The Lib Dems will target more than 6 seats seriously; just because of where activists and held seats are. Based on target seats in my area I think there will be fully resources campaigns in 25 or so target seats.
Exciting times.
Do not misunderestimate the Tory Party's preference to be ideologically pure rather than be in power.
Cf the time we chose IDS as leader over Ken Clarke.
If it is to be the LDs and Cons again, they could do worse than putting the areas they just can't agree (Europe, Trident, welfare, Lords, Heathrow) to referendums (referenda?) in May 2016 to allow a deal to be done which both sides will pass.
We've established on PB that the plural of referendum is plebiscites.
It wasn't the need to be "ideologically pure" that rejected Ken Clarke. It was simply not wanting to be a europhile party at a time of critical importance. If Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke was personally supporting the Euro, and the Tory party was neutral on it, Blair would have pushed heavily on it, and could have won a referendum. Unemployment right now would likely be at Irish levels.
I thought you were barmy then and that you are barmy now.
Re the problem of the fees story as per @foxinsoxuk and @malcolmg and @Socrates inter aliis - I checked back and confirmed my memory that the often told story of Scottish and by implication SNP separatist MPs burdening the poor masses of England is almost complete, but not quite, mince, but put it in the last thread in error, for those who are interested. The SNP and the LDs (some) come out clean - not so the LDs (some) and above all Labour, logically enough for a One Nation party. The big surprise was the sole Scottish Tory MP in 2004!
And even if the Tories are the biggest party in a hung parliament, I think even then it would probably be a minority government instead. I certainly think the Lib Dems would be doing much better in the polls right now had they let the Tories form a minority govt in 2010 -- then, their line that "we've stopped the Tories being as nasty as they want to be" might actually have some traction, whereas now, when they parrot that line, it just begs the question "if you think they're so nasty, why are you in government with them? "
Pepe Mel produces a nice £80 profit, £5 free bet lands on Black 29 at Paddy's roulette wheel and 12-1 and 18-1 winners on the horses today ^^;;
That lesson will not be lost on any party leader.
The LDs will give no promises to support a minority government with a supply & confidence arrangement.
If the Tories want to stay in power without the yellows then they need 326 seats
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25706037
5.5 (9/2) though... is the price any good ?
You need LAB most seats (1.82), but not LAB majority (2.66)
Anyone know how to correctly compute those odds/events together to get probability of LAB most seats/NOM ?
Also there is a chance of a minority Lab Gov't too given those events.
As for the Tories, isn't it feasible that the Lib Dems could just let a Queen's Speech through, but then make the Tories haggle for their support on each and every issue (which happened with the SNP in the Scottish Parliament in 2007-11, which far from being "unstable" proved to make such effective governance and made the SNP wildly popular)? If they had done that in 2010, I certainly think we would've had a more moderate Tory government than what we ended up with, if the Lib Dems had got an effective veto over everything. But it's hard to escape the impression that the Lib Dems chose to trade in real influence for the illusory trappings of "power", traded in the chance to actually shape policy for ceremonial job titles and ministerial perks.
Richard Burgon (trade union lawyer, GMB. From Cross Gates) www.richardburgon.com/
Judith Cummins (local Cllr) www.judithcummins.co.uk/
Mohammed Iqbal (Leeds Central Cllr) democracy.leeds.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=198
Katie White (Leeds activist, charity worker) www.katiejwhite.org
The latest 2015 ARSE general election projection published on 7th Jan indicated :
Con 296 .. Lab 283 .. LibDem 37
Accordingly a Con/LibDem majority of 16 and with SF absent more likely 20+
The sitting PM, Gordon, has all the cards in his hands in such a situation as we will likely see next year. If Ed doesn't get 326 seats Dave can sit tight
(1) Ed M would surely tell Her Majesty that he could form a government, just as Wilson did forty years ago.
(2) He would enact those parts of his manifesto which were either also in the LibDem one or at least not contradicted by it. Why shouldn't the Lib Dems abstain, which would be enough for their passage?
(3) He would seek an early election. Focus groups would tell him whether to go when he thought the weather fair, or whether alternatively to create a short fixed-term Parliament - if that idea was preferred by the groups. If the economy continued to behave in a way most people disliked (i.e. either no growth or the benefits of growth being restricted to the top 1% or 2%, as most Tory Peebies seem to want) he could even offer the Tory leader a Grand Coalition.
(4) After a second election, a Grand Coalition would almost be the only option, since the UKIP Parliamentary caucus would - and righty so - want its feet from the opposition benches before entering government. Indeed, it would hope to become the largest single party after a third election.
A couple of points on interest rates and soaring mortgage cost will have the combined opposition itching to turf a minority Conservative government out.
This is very interesting on it, and has taught me a lot: http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06355.pdf
is....................................................33 seats. Up 4 from November.
Which seems a little odd.
P(Lab majority) = 37.02%
P(Lab most seats) = 54.63%
Therefore, P(Lab most seats, not a majority) = 54.63%-37.02% = 17.61% or about 14/3...
Of course the Lib-Lab coalition chance will be somewhat greater (Lib-Lab coalition even if Lab not largest, or Lab have a tiny majority).
It's a good line, but completely wrong in my view. I'd rank the effect of various possibilities on the economy as follow (1 = best)
1: Con Maj, the progress made towards fiscal sanity continues
2: Continuation of the Con/LD coalition, provided the combined seat total is sufficient to form a stable government
3: Adequate Labour majority: there would be an early panic but I have sufficient faith in Ed Ball's dishonesty to hope that he'd be more sensible than he sounds
4: Lab/LD coalition, with a combined seat total sufficient to form a stable government. This would be financially profligate because the two parties would be vying with each other to waste dosh.
5. Conservative minority: very hard to govern well with two leftish parties able to block and cause trouble
6. Labour minority or any unstable coalition/arrangement: impossible to govern well.
The indications are that the bottom three of those are quite likely, so be prepared.
And UKIP / LibDem coalition?
"How do the electorate vote for a Coalition?"
The answer of course is they don't. In a FPTP scenario it is a freak of nature. The political equivalent of a lightning strike. Consequently isn't saying "Vote Libdem, Get Coalition" a wholly dishonest pitch?
Hmmmm I thought that most sounded like the Tory Party.
Now whats was that about a letter from a hundred MPs that turned William Hague into a rather poor impersonation of Barroso?
So it's a fair comment.
Clegg should go further:- "The only way to reign in the profligacy of Labour on the one hand, and the heartlessness of the Tories on the other is to deny either an outright victory. Voting LibDem is the best way to achieve this..."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25703940
Fidem vita fateri
1) Joking.
2) Hopeful beyond reason.
3) A genius.
I'm still thinking that UKIP will not get any seats in 2015. I may change my mind a few months after the Euros, *if* UKIP can maintain progress. And that's a big ask.
But good on you for being positive!
LAB 40"
The LDs are the 4th/5th/6th choice of the nation. Vote LD: only the LDs can stop single party government!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG3IHGytNF8&
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00n93c6/Synth_Britannia_at_the_BBC/
Are you saying the wretched airline got the passengers on board and then had them sit there for three plus hours whilst they sorted out a problem? Piss poor customer service if so. No need to remind me never to fly Qatar Airways as I shall never set foot on a commercial aeroplane again but such poor quality needs to be advertised lest others fall into their clutches.
Belike
Aaaarrrrrgh, belike and all that!
Can happen.
Aaaaargh, me hearties!
It is quite another thing to ignore conventional wisdom and sail your small ship as if it was true. For years I never quite decided if it was bravery or stupidity; then I sailed on a tall ship and decided it was definitely the latter.
I'd probably have been on the quayside laughing at him.
Christopher Columbus's efforts to obtain support for his voyages were not hampered by a European belief in a flat Earth. Sailors and navigators of the time knew that the Earth was roughly spherical, but (correctly) disagreed with Columbus's estimate of the distance to India, which was approximately one-sixth of the actual distance. If the Americas did not exist, and had Columbus continued to India, he would have run out of supplies before reaching it at the rate he was traveling. Without the ability to determine longitude at sea, he would not have learned that his estimate was an error in time to return. Many of the educated classes believed the Earth was spherical since the works of the Greek philosophers Plato and Aristotle. Eratosthenes made an accurate estimate of the Earth's diameter in approximately 240 BC. See also Myth of the Flat Earth.
Eratosthenes, a Greek but that doesn't make him a bad man, demonstrated that the Earth was a sphere in about 200BC. He also calculated its circumference (with surprising accuracy), its tilt and the distance to the Sun. Clever bloke.
Yo ho ho! Fifteen men and a bottle of rum, belike aaaargh.
They all laughed at Christopher Columbus
When he said the world was round
They all laughed when Edison recorded sound
They all laughed at Wilbur and his brother
When they said that man could fly ... Etcetera....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MartinBehaim1492.png
LAB 43
COA 28
UKIP 23
Google the "Brendan Voyage" as well ;-)
Incidentally, I mentioned this just now to my partner who works in universities and she instantly pointed out what si of course obvious on a little reflection, that it's a myth that the English tuition fees have been taken off the public budget - an unknown but significant proportion will end up as bad debt thanks to people never earning over the qualifying limit to start paying back, emigrating, etc. etc. So when you add that and the admin costs of the Student Loan Company I really wonder how much of a saving it makes to the public budget in the long run, especially given the concerns expressed of late about the SLC being a future Northern Rock or Co-op. In this sense, I suppose, the SNP policy could be seen, like its policy on PPP and PFI, as one of fiscal rectitude.