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The Thursday front pages not good for the government – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 18 in General
imageThe Thursday front pages not good for the government – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,188
    First!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    I'd say Raab should be most worried, though Boris doesn't seen keen on a reshuffle, let alone of his First Secretary.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    Worse for Geronimo.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631
    Not their finest hour
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,165
    LAB majority nailed on! If you take note of what is posted on here.

    In the real world, not so sure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 648
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    Cute fluffy animal with PR savvy owner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    It is cute
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    ‘Mr Johnson had been attempting to get Mr Biden on the phone to discuss Kabul falling from Monday morning. The pair eventually talked at close to 10pm on Tuesday.’

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1428112078649311239?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited August 18
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    Cute fluffy animal with PR savvy owner.

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    It is cute
    Sure, but do people keep alpaca's as pets or something? I find it hard to get invested in animals that are logged in my brain as food.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,999
    kle4 said:

    I'd say Raab should be most worried, though Boris doesn't seen keen on a reshuffle, let alone of his First Secretary.

    In a different decade, Raab would have fallen on his sword by now. But Johnson can't really sack him for going on holiday when he did pretty much the same thing. But that's two of the top table who really shouldn't be there (Raab and Patel) now?

    On Topic- the interesting one is The Star. Up to now, they have played their criticism of the government for laughs. This is straighter, and that feels worse.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,165

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    Lot of excitement on here if LAB go ahead or get within a few percent. Maybe some anti Boris threads 😊
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    ‘Mr Johnson had been attempting to get Mr Biden on the phone to discuss Kabul falling from Monday morning. The pair eventually talked at close to 10pm on Tuesday.’

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1428112078649311239?s=20

    I understand Biden has not spoken to anyone other than Boris

    And he was on holiday longer than Raab
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    kle4 said:

    I'd say Raab should be most worried, though Boris doesn't seen keen on a reshuffle, let alone of his First Secretary.

    In a different decade, Raab would have fallen on his sword by now. But Johnson can't really sack him for going on holiday when he did pretty much the same thing. But that's two of the top table who really shouldn't be there (Raab and Patel) now?

    On Topic- the interesting one is The Star. Up to now, they have played their criticism of the government for laughs. This is straighter, and that feels worse.
    I was going to say intriguing they have gone serious - I feel like they must know the line when their audience won't like a joke.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    Starmer’s first policy success.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    It is cute
    Sure, but do people keep alpaca's as pets or something? I find it hard to get invested in animals that are logged in my brain as food.
    Apparently their fleeces and they are good guard animals
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    Lot of excitement on here if LAB go ahead or get within a few percent. Maybe some anti Boris threads 😊
    Well, we are always up for something new
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,999

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327
    MaxPB said:

    Biden is a very unimpressive POTUS barely an improvement on the previous occupant.

    At least with Trump he was unapologetically a tosser.

    Talking of similarities between the two, Biden has clearly retained Trump's makeup artist.

    https://twitter.com/GStephanopoulos/status/1428101934658080778

    Once again (and unironically) Orange Man Bad.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327

    ‘Mr Johnson had been attempting to get Mr Biden on the phone to discuss Kabul falling from Monday morning. The pair eventually talked at close to 10pm on Tuesday.’

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1428112078649311239?s=20

    Been interesting reports about this. Merkel, Macron, and Johnson all spoke to each other individually, but until the Johnson-Biden call none of the European leaders had spoken to Biden. Either he was too busy on his summer holidays, or they realise that the whole 'America is Back' noise was just that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    Re your second paragraph maybe it is time that we accept we cannot be the worlds policemsn
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    ‘Mr Johnson had been attempting to get Mr Biden on the phone to discuss Kabul falling from Monday morning. The pair eventually talked at close to 10pm on Tuesday.’

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1428112078649311239?s=20

    Disgraceful. Did he speak to Merkel?

    So much for the special relationship.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 537
    edited August 18
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Worse for Geronimo.

    I know it's silly season, but I've missed why anyone got worked up over this alpaca.
    Cute fluffy animal with PR savvy owner.
    Not just PR savvy, but also with very deep pockets. I'd hazard a guess that the amount of legal costs this alpaca has incurred would buy a very substantial herd of the creatures!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,528
    edited August 18

    LAB majority nailed on! If you take note of what is posted on here.

    In the real world, not so sure.

    Strange comment. I haven't come across a single person on here who thinks a Labour majority is remotely plausible. Even us lefties are pretty gloomy about the prospects of that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,111

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,999

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    Re your second paragraph maybe it is time that we accept we cannot be the worlds policemsn
    Lots of truth there- but I'm not sure that the British psyche is ready to accept that yet, or that Johnson is the leader to help the country make the necessary transition.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,528

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    Re your second paragraph maybe it is time that we accept we cannot be the worlds policemsn
    And time to accept that we shouldn't be the USA's lapdog.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    HYUFD said:

    NOM = end of Union?

    The reverse. NOM likely means PM Starmer, indyref2 + devomax and a narrow No win and securing of Scotland's position in the Union for a genuine generation more.

    Also it likely means closer alignment to the SM and CU for GB removing the Irish Sea border also cementing GB closer to NI.

    NOM is thus likely bad for the Tories as they lose office, even the DUP may prefer Starmer for the reasons in my second sentence however it would be good for the Union
    Ah yes, devomax, that old chestnut. Been tumbleweed status on that one for years now. You seem to be the last fan.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    Davey's been on a bit of a journey over Afghanistan

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xs6hzFQzjI&t=60s&ab_channel=ChristianCalgie
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    edited August 18
    Compradore ex-"president" Ashraf Ghani, recipient of the Quisling Medal and the Pétain Prize, has now "landed" in the UAE. I bet he and his family are pleased that he has been reported as landing somewhere. What a lot of travelling he must have done, what with it being stated first that he'd fled to Tajikistan and next to Uzbekistan. Aerial refuelling? Or movements as yet unrevealed? For reasons that are obvious, none of the "stans" will want him, and I strongly doubt his former country of residence the United States (citizenship of which he so bravely renounced) will want him back either. He says he is in talks to return to Afghanistan.[*] Who with - the man in the mirror?

    Note

    (*) He also says that rumours that he travelled to the UAE with a large amount of money are "completely baseless" and "lies". Phew! Not as if he'd have to pay anyone to look after him or anything like that. Must have friends all over the place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,964
    edited August 18
    Rasmussen tonight has Trump beating Biden if there was another election now

    Trump 43%
    Biden 37%
    Third Party 14%
    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2021/election_regrets_most_wouldn_t_vote_to_reelect_biden

    (Rasmussen's final 2020 poll had Biden 1% ahead for comparison)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    HYUFD said:

    Rasmussen tonight has Trump beating Biden if there was another election now

    Trump 43%
    Biden 37%
    https://conservativebrief.com/poll-defeat-48729/

    (Rasmussen's final 2020 poll had Biden 1% ahead for comparison)

    Resume the count?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    This is right up PB’s street:

    ‘Sir Tom Devine: Those who think independence threat is receding are living in fool's paradise’

    Professor Sir Tom Devine argued the union remains in greater danger than at any time since the 1745 Jacobite rising.

    He added: "Remember, 1707 was an agreement between two historic nations. It was not an imposition. What we have now is imposition."

    Sir Tom said: "Those in London, and particularly in the political class, who think the problem of the north, the problem of the Scottish question is receding are quite literally living in a fool's paradise."

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19521474.sir-tom-devine-think-independence-threat-receding-living-fools-paradise/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541
    edited August 18

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158

    HYUFD said:

    NOM = end of Union?

    The reverse. NOM likely means PM Starmer, indyref2 + devomax and a narrow No win and securing of Scotland's position in the Union for a genuine generation more.

    Also it likely means closer alignment to the SM and CU for GB removing the Irish Sea border also cementing GB closer to NI.

    NOM is thus likely bad for the Tories as they lose office, even the DUP may prefer Starmer for the reasons in my second sentence however it would be good for the Union
    Ah yes, devomax, that old chestnut. Been tumbleweed status on that one for years now. You seem to be the last fan.
    Tumbleweed status on that particular framing, yes, but there's scope for increasing support for an improvement or relaunch of the union, even with the SNP refusing to play ball if that's the attitude they want to take.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,111
    HYUFD said:



    The reverse. NOM likely means PM Starmer, indyref2 + devomax and a narrow No win and securing of Scotland's position in the Union for a genuine generation more.

    Also it likely means closer alignment to the SM and CU for GB removing the Irish Sea border also cementing GB closer to NI.

    NOM is thus likely bad for the Tories as they lose office, even the DUP may prefer Starmer for the reasons in my second sentence however it would be good for the Union

    Vote Labour to save the Union, you say? (jots down note)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    YoungTurk said:

    HYUFD said:

    NOM = end of Union?

    The reverse. NOM likely means PM Starmer, indyref2 + devomax and a narrow No win and securing of Scotland's position in the Union for a genuine generation more.

    Also it likely means closer alignment to the SM and CU for GB removing the Irish Sea border also cementing GB closer to NI.

    NOM is thus likely bad for the Tories as they lose office, even the DUP may prefer Starmer for the reasons in my second sentence however it would be good for the Union
    Ah yes, devomax, that old chestnut. Been tumbleweed status on that one for years now. You seem to be the last fan.
    Tumbleweed status on that particular framing, yes, but there's scope for increasing support for an improvement or relaunch of the union, even with the SNP refusing to play ball if that's the attitude they want to take.

    A relaunch you say? Intriguing. Not least because that echoes something in that Herald article I just linked to:

    “Mr Martin, a professor at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government, said an important part of the unionist argument will be deciding what sort of union is on offer post-Brexit.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19521474.sir-tom-devine-think-independence-threat-receding-living-fools-paradise/

    A new sort of union? A “relaunch”? “On offer”?
    “An improvement”? A new framing? Devomax?

    This is gonna be fun! It’s not going to be Status Quo v Independence, but A New Sort of Union v Independence. Only slight problem: has anyone asked/told the English?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    AZ vaccine unexpectedly catching on among 30s, 40s (S Korea)
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=314104
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,111

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    edited August 18
    Look at this interview with Biden. It’s gibberish. He can’t talk properly, or he gets emotionally weird



    ‘Biden grew defensive when Stephanopoulos referred to the scenes of distress.

    "We've all seen the pictures. We've seen those hundreds of people packed in a C-17. We've seen Afghans falling --"

    "That was four days ago, five days ago!" Biden interjected.

    ++

    "Yes," Biden replied, but then amended his answer.

    "Now exactly what happened, I've not priced in," he said. "But I knew that they're going to have an enormous -- Look, one of the things we didn't know is what the Taliban would do in terms of trying to keep people from getting out. What they would do. What are they doing now? They're cooperating, letting American citizens get out, American personnel get out, embassies get out, et cetera, but they're having -- we're having some more difficulty having those who helped us when we were in there."

    ++

    "I hear people say, well you had 2,500 folks in there and nothing was happening. You know, there wasn't any more -- but guess what, the fact was, that the reason that wasn't happening, was the last president negotiated a year earlier that he'd be out by May 1st and that the return, there'd be no attack on American forces. That's what was done. That's why nothing was happening," Biden said.

    "I had a simple choice. If I said, 'we're gonna stay,' then we'd better be prepared to put a whole lot hell of a lot more troops in," he concluded.’

    Wtf

    This isn’t a partisan point. Trump was also gaga. But 2 presidents in a row?

    The whole article is worse

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-withdraw-afghanistan-chaos-ensuing/story?id=79507930
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    HYUFD said:



    The reverse. NOM likely means PM Starmer, indyref2 + devomax and a narrow No win and securing of Scotland's position in the Union for a genuine generation more.

    Also it likely means closer alignment to the SM and CU for GB removing the Irish Sea border also cementing GB closer to NI.

    NOM is thus likely bad for the Tories as they lose office, even the DUP may prefer Starmer for the reasons in my second sentence however it would be good for the Union

    Vote Labour to save the Union, you say? (jots down note)
    Not often you get a Tory councillor pointing out the upside of a Labour PM. However, before you get too excited, as Philip pointed out earlier today:

    HYUFD's view on the union distilled:

    Tory majority = no IndyRef = good for union.
    No Tory majority = no Tory PM = good for union.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
    Biden should have said: no deal, to the Taliban, unless we have 3 months to evacuate who we want, at the pace we want. And they should never scuttled from Bagram

    America had total air superiority, and relinquished it for nothing
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    Christ he’s beyond useless. Won’t take a single questions at his presser. No way Biden runs again

    https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1428098825625866244?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    Leon said:

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
    Biden should have said: no deal, to the Taliban, unless we have 3 months to evacuate who we want, at the pace we want. And they should never scuttled from Bagram

    America had total air superiority, and relinquished it for nothing
    They slipped away in the cover of darkness without even telling the Afghan army, lol

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/5/us-left-bagram-airfield-without-notice-afghan-officials-say
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541
    Leon said:

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
    Biden should have said: no deal, to the Taliban, unless we have 3 months to evacuate who we want, at the pace we want. And they should never scuttled from Bagram

    America had total air superiority, and relinquished it for nothing
    Maybe I'm being slow but I don't get it. They've *got* the airport, they can get the people they want out. If there's a problem it's getting across the city to the airport, but that's not something you can enforce from the air.

    It's true that if they wanted to take millions of refugees they'd need more time, and ideally a land corridor too. But they don't want to take millions of refugees.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Food industry supply chain chaos result of Brexit, British poultry association says

    Sky News understands that the group has contacted the Home Office about the issue, but has yet to receive a response.

    https://news.sky.com/story/amp/food-industry-supply-chain-chaos-result-of-brexit-british-poultry-association-says-12384770
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157

    LAB majority nailed on! If you take note of what is posted on here.

    In the real world, not so sure.

    Not without Scotland, and certainly not read it on here. Have you been on LabourList again?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
    Biden should have said: no deal, to the Taliban, unless we have 3 months to evacuate who we want, at the pace we want. And they should never scuttled from Bagram

    America had total air superiority, and relinquished it for nothing
    They slipped away in the cover of darkness without even telling the Afghan army, lol

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/5/us-left-bagram-airfield-without-notice-afghan-officials-say
    It's important to note that despite the US running away in the middle of the night with no warning, and banning essential ANA maintenance contractors from entering the country, and the US announcing that they expected the ANA to be slaughtered in months, and the US releasing 5,000 of the Taliban's most dedicated fighters, and the US-installed puppet President striking secret deals with the Taliban, that this is fully on the ANA's lack of desire to fight, and the US can't be blamed at all.

    Or at least that's what the blue-ticks are telling me.

    I'm so incredibly angry about so much of this- for the thousands of Europeans who lost their lives and their limbs, for the 40m Afghans who lost their liberties, country and future, for the 70k+ dead ANA who sacrificed their life against the Taliban only to be slandered by the US President, and every other tragedy that will arise because of the US's callous cowardice.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327

    Inevitable but not sure if the public accept the UK had any choice once Trump and Biden took the decision

    The next few polls will be interesting

    That leaves two problems for the government, though.

    One is that, even if the withdrawal was inevitable, the scrambled mess feels like it ought to have been done better. I don't know if that's the case or not- defeats are always undignified- but this doesn't make the UK government look competent or humane.

    The other is that, even if it's true that the UK isn't in a position to undertake global military action independently of the USA... it's not nice to explicitly bump up against that reality. At least some of the thinking behind support for the Johnson government is based on the assumption that the UK has more global power than it actually has; the gap between Truly Global Power (USA, China, anyone else?) and Best of the Rest is really very big.
    I'm sure that's true. What puzzles me - and it's really not a partisan point - is why the evacuation of most people whom we want to get out wasn't quietly started a few weeks ago. Sure, there would have been unsettling rumours, but that would have been a good time for obfuscation - we are just routine redeployments and economies, blah blah. A D-notice would have been appropriate. They wouldn't have got everyone out, but they seem to have only started thinking about it seriously when Kabul collapsed. Yes, they set up some sort of control centre at the airport, but it clearly wasn't ready for efficient operation.

    I get that their advice was that the Afghans would hold on for a while, but anyone could see that that wasn't a certainty, simply an assessment. Some worst-case thinking would have indicated a better approach.
    Which people are we talking about? It doesn't seem like British staff were getting stuck, so we're talking about Afghans. Afghans don't have a right to live in Britain, and the British voters don't want them there. One of the main reasons for Brexit was to stop refugees from Syria getting in.

    Now, it's true that *this week* the voters want to let Afghan refugees in. But they didn't want them two weeks ago, and they won't want them two months from now. The British government particularly doesn't want them because it'll be blamed if a refugee commits a terrorist attack.

    You don't make a big secret plan for something you don't intend to do.
    Interesting idea - but there seem to be quite a few Brits still stuck there?
    Did they want to leave before the government collapsed? If not, what kind of planning would have helped?
    Per Bruno Macaes on twitter (former Portugese Europe Minister - who has been extensively critical of the EU/US over the past year), things moved very quickly, and the 'intelligence' services had little idea of the reality of the situation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    He’s done a May hasn’t he?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    image

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1428140093873786881
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    He’s done a May hasn’t he?
    He's not that bad, surely, even when you take the blackface into account.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    What's wrong with "re" now?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327
    edited August 19

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    image

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1428140093873786881
    My affinity with Bruno Macaes' worldview and takes is no doubt totally unrelated to his decidedly Anglophilic slant...
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266
    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    I don't see the Canadian election on betfair, are any bookies taking bets on Canadian GE? if so what are the odds?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    She sells sea shells to she-cover from the she-cession.

    Personally I think he is woman shaming, blaming them for an economic downturn and demanding they are responsible coming back from it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    edited August 19

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    She sells sea shells to she-cover from the she-cession.

    Personally I think he is woman shaming, blaming them for an economic downturn and demanding they are responsible coming back from it.
    Finally, women can get back to work while men get in the kitchen. :D /s
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Covid vaccines still effective against Delta variant

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58257863
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    Too busy running things in the background.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    He’s done a May hasn’t he?
    Looks like it. I don't think the Conservatives will benefit, it's more likely to be the New Democratic Party and the Greens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    BigRich said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    I don't see the Canadian election on betfair, are any bookies taking bets on Canadian GE? if so what are the odds?
    Good question, I don't know at the moment.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,719

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,719

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    The "she-cession" - he's blaming women? That's gutsy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    Omg

    https://twitter.com/richardgrenell/status/1428096454782951435?s=21

    Sorry for posting at like 3am but fucking hell. This gets worse
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I have no idea who the tweeter is

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1428036967443451904/photo/1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235
    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Leon said:
    I thought the grown-up professionals were supposed to be back in charge of America?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I have no idea who the tweeter is

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1428036967443451904/photo/1
    I would be careful with that guy....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    U.S. COVID update: More than 1,000 new deaths for second day in a row

    - New cases: 174,785
    - Average: 140,549 (+2,153)
    - In hospital: 91,134 (+2,653)
    - In ICU: 22,509 (+595)
    - New deaths: 1,112
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    Yes, this starts to feel more like an American Suez. Total national humiliation. An entire political generation disgraced.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I have no idea who the tweeter is

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1428036967443451904/photo/1
    I would be careful with that guy....
    Thx - any particular reason?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    kle4 said:

    I'd say Raab should be most worried, though Boris doesn't seen keen on a reshuffle, let alone of his First Secretary.

    In a different decade, Raab would have fallen on his sword by now. But Johnson can't really sack him for going on holiday when he did pretty much the same thing. But that's two of the top table who really shouldn't be there (Raab and Patel) now?

    On Topic- the interesting one is The Star. Up to now, they have played their criticism of the government for laughs. This is straighter, and that feels worse.
    The interesting one is The Times.

    Anyone serious knows this is about Biden, not our government. Realistically once Biden pulled out there was no way the UK could or should remain without the USA. Not a single sane person says otherwise.

    But sure, "Raab should have fallen on his sword" for Biden's decision . . . ookay then 😕
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I have no idea who the tweeter is

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1428036967443451904/photo/1
    I would be careful with that guy....
    Thx - any particular reason?
    From memory he is a big Trumpster who loves a good conspiracy theory. Pushed the likes of pizzagate etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    I feel like I've stepped into the Twilight Zone reading that.

    WTF? 😕
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,245

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I have no idea who the tweeter is

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1428036967443451904/photo/1
    I would be careful with that guy....
    Thx - any particular reason?
    From memory he is a big Trumpster who loves a good conspiracy theory. Pushed the likes of pizzagate etc.
    Ah. Hard pass then.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157
    .
    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    A bitter has-been and an uncompromising zealot, neither of whom need to pay attention to real world compromises and can use their soapboxes as they please.

    Do you think that a PM May (or even a PM Tugenhadt) after two decades in Afghanistan, having faced the Biden withdrawal which wasn't even discussed with the PM before the decision was made, would have said "the UK is staying behind, we'll continue to fight the Taliban unilaterally ourselves".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439

    Andy_JS said:

    Wrt the Canadian election:

    The average Liberal lead in the 10 polls conducted before the election was called was 8.4%, (or 8.3% if you take the final 11 polls before it was called). In the 11 polls conducted since the election was called, it has been 4.5%. So their lead has already pretty much halved in just 3 days, and we have more than 10 polls which makes the figures convincing IMO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

    Trudeau was saying they need a “she-covery” from the “she-cession”.

    https://twitter.com/andrewlawton/status/1427655383519162374
    I feel like I've stepped into the Twilight Zone reading that.

    WTF? 😕
    Makes sense when you consider the original words are "he-covery" and "he-cession". Oh, hang on...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    The UK has no power to do these sort of things unilaterally. The US does but decided not to.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus. This is the worst one. He’s a confused and tearful old man, way way out of his depth. This is desperate


    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1428100689692090371?s=21

    I am surprised he can remember as far back as 4 or 5 days.

    One thing that is noticeable, the Vice President is nowhere to be seen.
    I do believe this is the single most important observation of the day.

    Where is Kamala?

    Now, she may be wooden. And she may be a dreadful politician. But she's not a complete idiot. She could no doubt answer questions, and merely come over as dull and functional. But she isn't obviously suffering from dementia.

    My guess (and it's only a guess) is that she's getting her revenge. Biden* handed her a bunch of impossible problems that will generate only negative press for the VP.

    And now Biden needs her. And she doesn't want to be anywhere near the shit show.

    Could she actually plunge the knife into Biden early in his term? If so, would it be enough to force Biden from office?

    I don't know the answer. But it's far from impossible. Could Afghanistan be America's Suez? With Biden playing the Eden role?

    And perhaps Suez is the better analogy than Tehran or Saigon.

    * Well, really Biden's team.
    ** Eden, too long in the shadows... I like it.
    I predicted a couple of days ago that this situation may mean that Biden doesn't serve out his full term.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157
    edited August 19
    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    The UK has no power to do these sort of things unilaterally. The US does but decided not to.
    Thanks for clearing that up for me.

    Not what Theresa, Tom and several others were suggesting though.

    A UK led US-free NATO task force was what they had in mind I believe.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    The UK has no power to do these sort of things unilaterally. The US does but decided not to.
    Thanks for clearing that up for me.

    Not what Theresa, Tom and several others were suggesting though.
    They're wrong.

    What did Theresa ever manage to achieve unilaterally?

    Do you honestly believe for a fraction of a second that if Theresa was still PM we'd have remained after Biden's unilateral withdrawal decision?

    I don't and I don't think you honestly hand on heart believe that either. So why pretend we should listen to disgraced ex PMs like that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    The UK has no power to do these sort of things unilaterally. The US does but decided not to.
    Thanks for clearing that up for me.

    Not what Theresa, Tom and several others were suggesting though.
    They're wrong.

    What did Theresa ever manage to achieve unilaterally?

    Do you honestly believe for a fraction of a second that if Theresa was still PM we'd have remained after Biden's unilateral withdrawal decision?

    I don't and I don't think you honestly hand on heart believe that either. So why pretend we should listen to disgraced ex PMs like that?
    I clarified "unilateral" in my edit.

    For what it's worth I am not beating up on Biden or Johnson, unlike Leon and HYUFDStarmer.

    I don't like the moral compass direction of the exit, but to an extent Biden's hands were tied by Doha. The shambolic US exit strategy (strategy?,-I jest) happened on Biden's watch and is thus all down to Biden and military intelligence and the CIA.

    The shambolic UK exit, as opposed to France who I believe evacuated two weeks ago is whose doing?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,157
    Angina attack over! Back to bed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited August 19
    New South Wales, which includes Sydney, reports 681 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

    New Zealand's coronavirus outbreak more than doubles in size with 11 new cases, the biggest one-day increase since August 2020
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,719

    I think people are getting carried away on the political implications of this. Sooner or later there will be another crisis somewhere else in the world, this time one that can be addressed by bombing some brown people, Biden will bomb some brown people, and the blob will be back on side.

    I’m sure this is right. Everyone tends to overreact.

    Still, Kamala’s silence is deafening
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,541
    rcs1000 said:

    I think people are getting carried away on the political implications of this. Sooner or later there will be another crisis somewhere else in the world, this time one that can be addressed by bombing some brown people, Biden will bomb some brown people, and the blob will be back on side.

    I’m sure this is right. Everyone tends to overreact.

    Still, Kamala’s silence is deafening
    I think this kind of illustrates the problem with her position, because not being seen talking about it much won't let her off the hook. Health-permitting if Biden is doing well he'll run again, and if he's not doing well then she'll be tainted too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,235

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    Leon said:
    America looks unbelievably diminished today.
    You missed Boris in the Commons today then?

    I don't personally believe either UK or US are diminished, but then I'm not Theresa May or Tom Tugenhadt.
    The UK has no power to do these sort of things unilaterally. The US does but decided not to.
    Thanks for clearing that up for me.

    Not what Theresa, Tom and several others were suggesting though.

    A UK led US-free NATO task force was what they had in mind I believe.
    Other NATO countries said no thank you. It was reported earlier that Ben Wallace had called around the other European capitals to no avail.
This discussion has been closed.