Reddit is something I am not really familiar with. It's a sort of dumbed down Twitter, yes?
Yes and no. It's thematically sorted into subreddits, and contributions get up or down voted, which both in theory make it easier to find higher quality stuff on subjects you are interested in. In theory.
Well the flights are starting. One US State department plane just took off, and surprisingly there looks like there might be a Turkish Airlines 777 taxiing for departure to Istanbul.
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
On topic I think Mike is right. Biden already had the air of a bumbling incompetent, really struggling to have a grip on the real world or complete something hard, like a sentence. Now he has a full on disaster on his watch and it confirms that he has no grip at all. Yes, many others are also responsible for this disaster over the last 20 years but he is in the Oval Office so he gets the blame.
So damaged goods become an embarrassment. And he doesn't run again. The question now is how long his Presidency lasts. The full term seems ambitious.
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
Are we giving up on the Trumplings? Ivanka in particular seems reasonably popular, has the Trump name allied to RINO (so far as anyone can tell) politics and will rival Kamala for the "time for a woman" vote.
ETA: on the GOP front, my plan is to wait and see which governor has the best Covid tale to tell.
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
Are we giving up on the Trumplings? Ivanka in particular seems reasonably popular, has the Trump name allied to RINO (so far as anyone can tell) politics and will rival Kamala for the "time for a woman" vote.
What does DeSantis do if Ivanka or Eric is running?
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
Agreed, we might have quite the field of non-runners, with both the RNC “Establishment” and Team Trump trying to get their favoured candidate selected early in the process. We could have only three or four left in the race after Iowa and NH.
It's a good headline, though given the 'mission' was never really achieved beyond the most initial of aims, with reports for years of Taliban strength, I dare say the collapse was not in a single day, despite the dramatic conclusion in the last weeks.
Indeed, taliban attacks had been increasing since the start of 2020. The amount of territory nominally controlled by the afghan government has been slowly but steadily decreasing for the last few years.
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
Are we giving up on the Trumplings? Ivanka in particular seems reasonably popular, has the Trump name allied to RINO (so far as anyone can tell) politics and will rival Kamala for the "time for a woman" vote.
What does DeSantis do if Ivanka or Eric is running?
Covid may well determine the GOP nominee. Wait two years then row in behind whichever Republican governor has the best Covid story (ie has not killed half the state but is different from the Biden line on masks and vaccines). If none then look for a senator or a Trumpling.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
So long as the evacuation runs reasonably smoothly, which granted, is not a given. I don't believe this will be seen as a defining moment.
But, what a monumental waste of lives and capital over the last twenty years. This is as much Bush and Blair's legacy as it is Biden's error. Still, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped, so the whole 20 year fiasco is his problem.
One thing Trump got right was his assertion over the last four and a half years is that US intelligence services are shockingly embarrassing. It's all well and good the mini-Trumpsters on here bemoaning Biden taking summer siestas at Camp David whilst all this is going on, where were military intelligence and the CIA?
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
Are we giving up on the Trumplings? Ivanka in particular seems reasonably popular, has the Trump name allied to RINO (so far as anyone can tell) politics and will rival Kamala for the "time for a woman" vote.
What does DeSantis do if Ivanka or Eric is running?
I think if he kills off a another 20k or So Floridians that should up his GOP approval numbers.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get the nomination if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says he does "not believe" everyone the UK wants to get out of Afghanistan will get out in time as promised. "There will be some people left behind" #bbcbreakfast https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427157860497203203
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
Of course, it only works as a trick if he knew he was a loser.
Whatever you think of the Taliban their seemingly imminent victory is a historic defeat of colonialism and imperialism. This should be the main narrative of media around the world, rather than the red herrings about women's rights etc that we are being sold.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace lays the blame for the catastrophe happening in Afghanistan on the Americans: "It is of deep regret we have got to this position...I believe the Donald Trump deal got us to where we are today." #bbcbreakfast https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427158563634417664
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
Of course, it only works as a trick if he knew he was a loser.
The state of the modern GOP is such that had Trump won again they would just have said this collapse was all lies on CNN that Kabul had fallen and the US had won a famous victory and it was just the loony left trying to undermine the brave US military etc etc. And also possible the fault of black people or mexicans somehow or other.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
It has been said that Trump was persuaded not to withdraw from Afghanistan because it had been within living memory (at least the urban parts) a modern, secular state (as I posted here a couple of threads back).
Taliban fighting US security in the terminal building sounds like the end of flights out.
I think the last commercial flight - a Turkish Airlines 777 has already taken off
There’s a Turkish plane on FlightRadar that shows as still being in Kabul. Don’t want to imagine the discussions going on with the military, the airline, their insurers and the pilots, all trying to find a way to get that plane off the ground before the Taliban get to it.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
It has been said that Trump was persuaded not to withdraw from Afghanistan because it had been within living memory (at least the urban parts) a modern, secular state (as I posted here a couple of threads back).
Things can change fast. Why, within living memory America was a successful democracy.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
The word is that Raab was advised not to head for the beach while Afghanistan approached boiling point.
Hmm. Raab goes. Rishi to Foreign Office. End of challenges to Boris?
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
Of course, it only works as a trick if he knew he was a loser.
If Trump had won and this chaos happened on his watch I suspect the spin would have been: We gave them all the equipment needed to defend themselves; not my fault these losers screwed up. Fox News and the base would have lapped it up. Job done.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
The word is that Raab was advised not to head for the beach while Afghanistan approached boiling point.
Hmm. Raab goes. Rishi to Foreign Office. End of challenges to Boris?
He could have also been advised the exact opposite, that it doesn't really matter where he is in the grand scheme of things.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
I'm not sure. If things continue as they are - not just on Afghanistan but on the immigration crisis, parent backlash against CRT in swing states and the rise in inflation - Trump's line will be "I told you this is what would happen." I'm not sure how Biden or Harris counteract this
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
So they do. The point is Dominic, from what I can gather was warned by his big boss, to delay his holibobs.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
So they do. The point is Dominic, from what I can gather was warned by his big boss, to delay his holibobs.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
Of course, it only works as a trick if he knew he was a loser.
The state of the modern GOP is such that had Trump won again they would just have said this collapse was all lies on CNN that Kabul had fallen and the US had won a famous victory and it was just the loony left trying to undermine the brave US military etc etc. And also possible the fault of black people or mexicans somehow or other.
Not Mexicans (or Hispanics). They are increasingly voting for the GOP....:)
Well the flights are starting. One US State department plane just took off, and surprisingly there looks like there might be a Turkish Airlines 777 taxiing for departure to Istanbul.
Less surprising, if you think the Turks may be playing some sort of key role here.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
I see the GOP are running on the twin platform of "Biden has Doomed the Afghan people" and "it is completely unacceptable to accept any Afghan refugees"
Biden problem was that Trump said he was going to remove all American troops, so it would have been as completely unacceptable for their to be American troop deaths.
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
The proposed Afghan withdrawal was the greatest trick Trump ever played.
It has been said that Trump was persuaded not to withdraw from Afghanistan because it had been within living memory (at least the urban parts) a modern, secular state (as I posted here a couple of threads back).
Quite a few "Islamic" countries were like that, in the 60s and 70s - quite cosmopolitan in parts of the capital. Untouched outside that....
The big change was the Islamic revival. During the Cold War, it was all about variations on "socialism" - secular state, Progress etc. Think Atatürk. At the end of the Cold War, the support from the USSR went away and the Islamic Revival began - on the basis of the total failure of the secular dictatorships to deliver progress and anything like decent government.
In Pakistan, there was the added feature of the intelligence services deliberately "weaponising" the more funky style of Islam for potential use against India. The Mumbai attacks were an accidental weapon release, really.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
If Trump gets the nomination he loses again, against any Democrat, and he will get it if he runs.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
I really don't see this as a problem for Johnson whatsoever. I would like to, but I don't.
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
That last bit is harsh. Even senior ministers need a break. If covid has taught us nothing else it is that a lot of work can be done over the Internet these days.
So they do. The point is Dominic, from what I can gather was warned by his big boss, to delay his holibobs.
Was it stated where the advise came from?
Whoever the advice comes from, Boris is perfectly entitled to consider it unwise that Raab ignored it, thus leaving Boris to deal with the unfolding crisis.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
That's largely been Republican spin so far. Trump himself has at times appeared a bit bemused that this hasn't turned out to be the case. As with the election, he's got nearer to a state of mental health where he believes everything he says must be true, which I think is connected to his signs of bemusement on the topic.
Taliban fighting US security in the terminal building sounds like the end of flights out.
I think the last commercial flight - a Turkish Airlines 777 has already taken off
There’s a Turkish plane on FlightRadar that shows as still being in Kabul. Don’t want to imagine the discussions going on with the military, the airline, their insurers and the pilots, all trying to find a way to get that plane off the ground before the Taliban get to it.
Yes - after I posted a report I'd seen on Twitter I double checked FlightRadar - still on the ground.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
Why is that news/controversial? I’m sure there will be some logistics in making it COVID compliant but that’s it
Well, it’s not controversial (does absolutely everything we discuss on here have to be controversial?), but it is most certainly news! Papal visits are extremely rare and have historically been extremely popular events.
There have only ever been two papal visits to Scotland:
5th century: conversion of Scotland to Christianity begins 1982 papal visit 2010 papal visit 2021 papal visit
So, yes Charles, this is news! (Average is about one visit per 500 years.)
The 1982 visit is imprinted on my childhood memory. It was immense.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
If the advice was that the 300,000 strong US trained and equipped army was helpless against 90,000 taliban, the answer should be: after we have rethought our training and equiping strategy, and taken another five years to do it fucking properly. Never seen a more spineless argument.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
I'm not sure. If things continue as they are - not just on Afghanistan but on the immigration crisis, parent backlash against CRT in swing states and the rise in inflation - Trump's line will be "I told you this is what would happen." I'm not sure how Biden or Harris counteract this
Rise in inflation? Americans have fixed interest mortgages.
A modest rise in inflation is manna from Heaven for most Americans.
Right now, the US is booming. It may or may not continue to boom, and it may also be a little generous to attribute that success to Biden.
But right now, unemployment is falling and wages rising.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
Then what we're seeing is a catastrophic failure to plan for such an outcome - that buck sits on Biden's desk, not Trump's (even if Trump's dud deal is at the root of this).
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
That's largely been Republican spin so far. Trump himself has appeared a bit bemused at times that this prediction hasn't appeared to be the case.
And, from those who should know better, the consequences of a stutter he has had his entire life.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
If the advice was that the 300,000 strong US trained and equipped army was helpless against 90,000 taliban, the answer should be: after we have rethought our training and equiping strategy, and taken another five years to do it fucking properly. Never seen a more spineless argument.
The advice could well have been that no matter what you put in, a secular(ish) government in Afghanistan will not provide the ideological structure that people will actually die in a ditch to defend.
{Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres to the red courtesy phone, please}
Taliban fighting US security in the terminal building sounds like the end of flights out.
I think the last commercial flight - a Turkish Airlines 777 has already taken off
There’s a Turkish plane on FlightRadar that shows as still being in Kabul. Don’t want to imagine the discussions going on with the military, the airline, their insurers and the pilots, all trying to find a way to get that plane off the ground before the Taliban get to it.
Yes - after I posted a report I'd seen on Twitter I double checked FlightRadar - still on the ground.
I’m not too sure they’re going to get it out now, could be in for a long wait. Hopefully they have a hangar big enough to hide it!
One small but unknown plane just landed, turned around and took off again. Probably US mil or CIA.
To be fair to Raab him being on holiday wouldn't have made a difference. The west is absolutely impotent here.
Not really the point. If I missed my mother's funeral to attend a football match that wouldn't make a difference either. Optics, innit.
Of course! Though knowing Clown he will probably reward Raab with a promotion. Thanks to Raab taking one for the team everyone is pointing the finger at him and not at ex Foreign Secretary and current Prime Minister Coco the Clown. Like Williamson having absolute morons in the cabinet is a needed distraction from the pillock in chief.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
Why is that news/controversial? I’m sure there will be some logistics in making it COVID compliant but that’s it
Well, it’s not controversial (does absolutely everything we discuss on here have to be controversial?), but it is most certainly news! Papal visits are extremely rare and have historically been extremely popular events.
There have only ever been two papal visits to Scotland:
5th century: conversion of Scotland to Christianity begins 1982 papal visit 2010 papal visit 2021 papal visit
So, yes Charles, this is news! (Average is about one visit per 500 years.)
The 1982 visit is imprinted on my childhood memory. It was immense.
Percentage wise there are more Catholics in Scotland than England, 16% of the population to 10%, so it makes sense for the Pope to go. Scotland is the second most Catholic part of the British isles after Ireland.
Of course the last Queen of Scotland, Mary Queen of Scots was a Catholic still even when her cousin Elizabeth 1st was a Protestant Queen of England
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
If the advice was that the 300,000 strong US trained and equipped army was helpless against 90,000 taliban, the answer should be: after we have rethought our training and equiping strategy, and taken another five years to do it fucking properly. Never seen a more spineless argument.
The advice could well have been that no matter what you put in, a secular(ish) government in Afghanistan will not provide the ideological structure that people will actually die in a ditch to defend.
{Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres to the red courtesy phone, please}
Lots of people will go to great lengths to avoid being stoned, decapitated and hanged, as a glance at Kabul airport shows. If secular government doesn't fly find a slightly nicer kinda religious bod to run the place. You can't just sit on your arse and write off 20 years and 5,000 lives and $100bn and say it was all too difficult, all along.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
Yes clever strategic thinker Biden. It was of course in his hard headed plan to have thousands of people stranded on a runway, some of us are just too silly to understand his 4D chess game plan.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
Why is that news/controversial? I’m sure there will be some logistics in making it COVID compliant but that’s it
Well, it’s not controversial (does absolutely everything we discuss on here have to be controversial?), but it is most certainly news! Papal visits are extremely rare and have historically been extremely popular events.
There have only ever been two papal visits to Scotland:
5th century: conversion of Scotland to Christianity begins 1982 papal visit 2010 papal visit 2021 papal visit
So, yes Charles, this is news! (Average is about one visit per 500 years.)
The 1982 visit is imprinted on my childhood memory. It was immense.
Making an average like that is faintly ridiculous, given that papal travel outside Rome, yet alone Italy, was exceptionally rare before the last century. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_travel
So much support for the Taliban from Pakistan on twitter. If any nation's going to have any crucial role, or be able to manage the regime's external relations to any significant extent, it's this one.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
If the advice was that the 300,000 strong US trained and equipped army was helpless against 90,000 taliban, the answer should be: after we have rethought our training and equiping strategy, and taken another five years to do it fucking properly. Never seen a more spineless argument.
The advice could well have been that no matter what you put in, a secular(ish) government in Afghanistan will not provide the ideological structure that people will actually die in a ditch to defend.
{Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres to the red courtesy phone, please}
Which is fine as far as advice goes, but wouldn't you then have a much longer withdrawal period which allows for equipment (such as Blackhawks) to be flown out. If the assumption is that the Taliban is going to take the country then don't leave them any defence equipment to take with it.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Your regular reminder that you were adamant Trump was going to be handsomely reelected.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Quick question for those who believe Harris would beat Trump. Why? She is unpopular, awkward, doesn't have much in the way of achievements and, as HYFUD says, Hillary Mark 2 without the good bits.
Just because she is not Donald Trump doesn't guarantee victory.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Since the end of the Cold War, I would argue there have been three defining humiliations for Western power. 9/11, the banking crisis, and the fall of Kabul.
The trouble with the last of these three, is that it invites further impactful humiliations of even greater severity. Were I living in Taiwan, this morning I’d be making plans to wind up my financials affairs and get out of dodge.
Fascinating look into the behind the scenes debates with Biden in last few months:
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
Sounds pretty clear and hard headed to me, no matter how many (including people like DavidL on here) are determined to continue to believe that Biden has a brain full of mush and struggles to tie his shoe laces.
If the advice was that the 300,000 strong US trained and equipped army was helpless against 90,000 taliban, the answer should be: after we have rethought our training and equiping strategy, and taken another five years to do it fucking properly. Never seen a more spineless argument.
The advice could well have been that no matter what you put in, a secular(ish) government in Afghanistan will not provide the ideological structure that people will actually die in a ditch to defend.
{Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres to the red courtesy phone, please}
From what I've seen over the weekend a massive issue is the level of corruption across Afghan government so that a lot of the money spent on troops and equipment has never made it. There are reports that front line police and soldiers don't even get paid on a regular basis and so on.
Since the end of the Cold War, I would argue there have been three defining humiliations for Western power. 9/11, the banking crisis, and the fall of Kabul.
The trouble with the last of these three, is that it invites further impactful humiliations of even greater severity. Were I living in Taiwan, this morning I’d be making plans to wind up my financials affairs and get out of dodge.
Not Afghanistan, but I have come back to work this morning with an email from our logistics company with another price rise. They have now given their drivers a total of 25.5% pay rise since April, are still losing drivers, there are not enough drivers in the South West at any price.
At some point the companies will realise that pay rises aren't the solution to not enough drivers as the "winner" will end up with a wage bill +50% AND a shortage of drivers. The "market solution" proposed by Philip doesn't exist.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Reports this morning of Al Qaeda and IS prisoners being released from jails across Afghanistan.
They will all be heading to the West to set up terrorist cells as the Biden and Harris disaster continues
Hmm. I'm a bit sceptical about that. Not sure the Taliban would calculate that it's in their interest to have ISIS running loose in the region.
They hate IS, in the typical way of splits between fanatics, but also, from what I've read today, in the more hopeful possibility that some of the current taliban leadership think they were too cruel, leading to their defeat. Let's hope that wing of the Taliban prevails over the more aggressive one.
Not Afghanistan, but I have come back to work this morning with an email from our logistics company with another price rise. They have now given their drivers a total of 25.5% pay rise since April, are still losing drivers, there are not enough drivers in the South West at any price.
At some point the companies will realise that pay rises aren't the solution to not enough drivers as the "winner" will end up with a wage bill +50% AND a shortage of drivers. The "market solution" proposed by Philip doesn't exist.
It absolutely exists, if truck driver wages go up to £80k per year there will be a queue of people who want to do it.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Your regular reminder that you were adamant Trump was going to be handsomely reelected.
Wrong, I always said Biden would win the popular vote, I just said the EC was too close to call.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg....
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
I'm not sure. If things continue as they are - not just on Afghanistan but on the immigration crisis, parent backlash against CRT in swing states and the rise in inflation - Trump's line will be "I told you this is what would happen." I'm not sure how Biden or Harris counteract this
Rise in inflation? Americans have fixed interest mortgages.
A modest rise in inflation is manna from Heaven for most Americans.
Right now, the US is booming. It may or may not continue to boom, and it may also be a little generous to attribute that success to Biden.
But right now, unemployment is falling and wages rising.
Last inflation figures were 5.4% and that is before the price increases for a whole range of everyday goods - which has been widely flagged by companies in their results - comes in next month.
Yes, inflation is great if you have a mortgage but what matters more if you don't - and therefore more likely to be at the bottom end of society - is the price of your everyday goods.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Should Trump win the nomination, it’s hard to see how he would lose against Biden or Harris. The Democrat hierarchy must surely realise this and be prepared to push someone else?
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
Disagree, I think almost any Republican beats Harris, except Trump.
Harris' latest approval rating has her on just 46%, even lower than the 47% Trump got in 2020.
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
Your regular reminder that you were adamant Trump was going to be handsomely reelected.
Wrong, I always said Biden would win the popular vote, I just said the EC was too close to call.
In the end the EC result was not decided for days
It wasn’t too close to call whatsoever though was it? Have some humility.
Comments
(I forgot, Clinton also came out of nowhere.)
I think you are absolutely right: The most likely President in 2024 is NOTA.
Harris is a terrible candidate. Trump is a terrible candidate who will be four years older than in 2020.
My “most likely scenario” is that the Trump protégés (DeSantis, Hayley) hold back for the big man… but for one reason or another (illness, incapacitation) he doesn’t stand or is forced out early.
In which case, it could be anyone: Hawley? Sasse?
So damaged goods become an embarrassment. And he doesn't run again. The question now is how long his Presidency lasts. The full term seems ambitious.
ETA: on the GOP front, my plan is to wait and see which governor has the best Covid tale to tell.
Robert has a far better understanding than me of how the machinations of primary politics unfold. But if Trump is a) not in court, b) has a pulse, everything we know about the man say he’ll run. And the way he still dominates the party and fundraising surely points to him being nominated, no matter how terrible a candidate he is on paper.
But, what a monumental waste of lives and capital over the last twenty years. This is as much Bush and Blair's legacy as it is Biden's error. Still, Biden was holding the parcel when the music stopped, so the whole 20 year fiasco is his problem.
One thing Trump got right was his assertion over the last four and a half years is that US intelligence services are shockingly embarrassing. It's all well and good the mini-Trumpsters on here bemoaning Biden taking summer siestas at Camp David whilst all this is going on, where were military intelligence and the CIA?
Biden really couldn't win here, all options provided equally good means of attack.
Mermaids will report him to Police Scotland for violent hate-speech.
Biden and Johnson have made a mess out of leaving Afghanistan, particularly being caught flatfooted in the last months.
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427157488340766723
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427157860497203203
Raab taking his holiday at the same time the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pencilled in, should not be so fortunate.
https://twitter.com/NatalieAmiri/status/1427156694778490880?s=20
Whatever you think of the Taliban their seemingly imminent victory is a historic defeat of colonialism and imperialism. This should be the main narrative of media around the world, rather than the red herrings about women's rights etc that we are being sold.
https://twitter.com/RmSalih/status/1426823831981903873?s=20
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1427158563634417664
"The president told his national security team, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, that he was convinced that no matter what the United States did, Afghanistan was almost certainly headed into another civil war — one Washington could not prevent, but also, in his view, one it could not be drawn into."
"If the Afghan government could not hold off the Taliban now, aides said he asked, when would they be able to? None of the Pentagon officials could answer the question."
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/afghanistan-biden.html
Hmm. Raab goes. Rishi to Foreign Office. End of challenges to Boris?
Brilliant start to the week!
Chaos at the airport with thousands of Afghans desperately trying to leave.
The airport is currently controlled by the Americans and their focus is to evacuate citizens and diplomatic staff
https://twitter.com/BBCYaldaHakim/status/1427162893406068739?s=20
The big change was the Islamic revival. During the Cold War, it was all about variations on "socialism" - secular state, Progress etc. Think Atatürk. At the end of the Cold War, the support from the USSR went away and the Islamic Revival began - on the basis of the total failure of the secular dictatorships to deliver progress and anything like decent government.
In Pakistan, there was the added feature of the intelligence services deliberately "weaponising" the more funky style of Islam for potential use against India. The Mumbai attacks were an accidental weapon release, really.
There have only ever been two papal visits to Scotland:
5th century: conversion of Scotland to Christianity begins
1982 papal visit
2010 papal visit
2021 papal visit
So, yes Charles, this is news! (Average is about one visit per 500 years.)
The 1982 visit is imprinted on my childhood memory. It was immense.
A modest rise in inflation is manna from Heaven for most Americans.
Right now, the US is booming. It may or may not continue to boom, and it may also be a little generous to attribute that success to Biden.
But right now, unemployment is falling and wages rising.
{Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres to the red courtesy phone, please}
They will all be heading to the West to set up terrorist cells as the Biden and Harris disaster continues
One small but unknown plane just landed, turned around and took off again. Probably US mil or CIA.
Of course the last Queen of Scotland, Mary Queen of Scots was a Catholic still even when her cousin Elizabeth 1st was a Protestant Queen of England
Never mind winning the election, Trump could even win the popular vote against Harris, she is Hillary 2 in personality but without Hillary's centrist politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_travel
Baku to Delhi cargo flight. Thought about going over Afghanistan and then thought better of it!
Just because she is not Donald Trump doesn't guarantee victory.
The trouble with the last of these three, is that it invites further impactful humiliations of even greater severity. Were I living in Taiwan, this morning I’d be making plans to wind up my financials affairs and get out of dodge.
At some point the companies will realise that pay rises aren't the solution to not enough drivers as the "winner" will end up with a wage bill +50% AND a shortage of drivers. The "market solution" proposed by Philip doesn't exist.
#AI126 changed course and exited Afghanistan airspace shortly after entering. https://flightradar24.com/AIC126/28cba788
#TVR750 now changing course as well. https://flightradar24.com/TVR750/28caaaeb
UNCONFIRMED Notam from OAKX: Afghanistan airspace available, but uncontrolled by ATC.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1427147599522435075?s=20
In the end the EC result was not decided for days
Yes, inflation is great if you have a mortgage but what matters more if you don't - and therefore more likely to be at the bottom end of society - is the price of your everyday goods.