Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
Yes yes yes whatever but you can't deny that is probably the single dumbest, stupidest, ugliest, most cloth-eared tweet ever made by a US politician, and I include the insane Trump in that definition of "US politician"
The fucking Democrats are as bad as the Trumpites. The US in in freefall
No. Really, they are not.
American politics has descended in to insanity - the democrats with their deranged identity politics and the trumpites with their conspiracy theories. I suppose Biden looks a bit more familiar and normal to those who came of age politically in the pre 2016 world, but then he goes and does this. For most of my life to date I would have instinctively sided with the democrats, but now I honestly don't know who I would vote for were I to be an American, it would be a very hard decision.
Yes, I'm in a fairly similar position, I was an Obamacan. Someone probably just about Republican, generally, if forced to choose - but I liked Obama and would have voted for him with great hope. Tho American politics is so different my perspective is almost meaningless. eg I find their arguments about gun laws utterly alien, and the abortion division confounds me, tho I respect the fact they have serious debates about serious things
Or they used to
This is where America has now left me bewildered. Their politics no longer seems serious. I know the British can be flippant and glib but America has gone way beyond our superficiality - the USA was recently governed by a certifiably insane president who attempted a coup, and it is now governed by a cabal of elitist wankers who think white people are evil.
I give up. America is MAD and FUCKED
Who on earth would move there now, as that journalist so eloquently put it in the Spectator?
On the other hand, you can't blame Biden if all the information he was being fed by his security experts/services was useless.
But we can, because there is ample evidence that many of his advisors told him that this - exactly this - was a very real risk. Yet he persisted.
Mail: "What the Hell did they all die for?" Mirror: "Paras in to save 6,000 Brits" Express: "Britons flee as Afghanistan falls" Times: "Triumphant Taliban take Kabul as president flees" Guardian: "The fall of Kabul" Sun: "Escape from Kabul" Telegraph: "The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban"
I just want to correct a comment I made about my 18 year old granddaughter when I said she is in a literary group and has written seven books
She is in a literary group, but has now just finished writing her 'first' novel about a prince who was sent on a quest he would be executed on if he fails, he meets a bunch of people he can trust and others he cannot, and in the end he must make a choice between his freedom and his duty to his country
Sounds interesting for those who like novels and not sure where seven books came from
You were anticipating the inevitable sequels.
{Robert Jordan has entered the chat}
7 books would be the first trilogy..... In the trilogy of trilogies that would end up with 28 books.
Is it just very late or does something about the maths there not quite work...?
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
Yes yes yes whatever but you can't deny that is probably the single dumbest, stupidest, ugliest, most cloth-eared tweet ever made by a US politician, and I include the insane Trump in that definition of "US politician"
The fucking Democrats are as bad as the Trumpites. The US in in freefall
No. Really, they are not.
American politics has descended in to insanity - the democrats with their deranged identity politics and the trumpites with their conspiracy theories. I suppose Biden looks a bit more familiar and normal to those who came of age politically in the pre 2016 world, but then he goes and does this. For most of my life to date I would have instinctively sided with the democrats, but now I honestly don't know who I would vote for were I to be an American, it would be a very hard decision.
Yes, I'm in a fairly similar position, I was an Obamacan. Someone probably just about Republican, generally, if forced to choose - but I liked Obama and would have voted for him with great hope. Tho American politics is so different my perspective is almost meaningless. eg I find their arguments about gun laws utterly alien, and the abortion division confounds me, tho I respect the fact they have serious debates about serious things
Or they used to
This is where America has now left me bewildered. Their politics no longer seems serious. I know the British can be flippant and glib but America has gone way beyond our superficiality - the USA was recently governed by a certifiably insane president who attempted a coup, and it is now governed by a cabal of elitist wankers who think white people are evil.
I give up. America is MAD and FUCKED
Who on earth would move there now, as that journalist so eloquently put it in the Spectator?
On the other hand, you can't blame Biden if all the information he was being fed by his security experts/services was useless.
@yanisvaroufakis · 49m On the day liberal-neocon imperialism was defeated once and for all, DiEM25's thoughts are with the women of Afghanistan. Our solidarity probably means little to them but it is what we can offer - for the time being. Hang in there sisters!
Not Yanis's most considered post, but then global affairs rather than global economy was never really his academic area.
There is a 'defeat for imperialism' angle here. It's not the strongest perspective on it imo but it's not an outrageous view. It's in the mix.
Where that tweet goes bad for me - and in quite a big way - is with "hang in there sisters!" That is an absolute squirmer. I mean FFS.
Why? Surely is is important to the women in Afghanistan being raped, murdered etc, that Yanis Veruca is with them - in a Citizen Smith style fashion, at least.,...
Mail: "What the Hell did they all die for?" Mirror: "Paras in to save 6,000 Brits" Express: "Britons flee as Afghanistan falls" Times: "Triumphant Taliban take Kabul as president flees" Guardian: "The fall of Kabul" Sun: "Escape from Kabul" Telegraph: "The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban"
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
True or not, who hates Raab and/or the government enough to leak that?
Lots of the people currently working for the FO under the current foreign secretary, were presumably working for it under the last but one f.s. which might have something to do with it.
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
Yes yes yes whatever but you can't deny that is probably the single dumbest, stupidest, ugliest, most cloth-eared tweet ever made by a US politician, and I include the insane Trump in that definition of "US politician"
The fucking Democrats are as bad as the Trumpites. The US in in freefall
No. Really, they are not.
American politics has descended in to insanity - the democrats with their deranged identity politics and the trumpites with their conspiracy theories. I suppose Biden looks a bit more familiar and normal to those who came of age politically in the pre 2016 world, but then he goes and does this. For most of my life to date I would have instinctively sided with the democrats, but now I honestly don't know who I would vote for were I to be an American, it would be a very hard decision.
Yes, I'm in a fairly similar position, I was an Obamacan. Someone probably just about Republican, generally, if forced to choose - but I liked Obama and would have voted for him with great hope. Tho American politics is so different my perspective is almost meaningless. eg I find their arguments about gun laws utterly alien, and the abortion division confounds me, tho I respect the fact they have serious debates about serious things
Or they used to
This is where America has now left me bewildered. Their politics no longer seems serious. I know the British can be flippant and glib but America has gone way beyond our superficiality - the USA was recently governed by a certifiably insane president who attempted a coup, and it is now governed by a cabal of elitist wankers who think white people are evil.
I give up. America is MAD and FUCKED
Who on earth would move there now, as that journalist so eloquently put it in the Spectator?
A comment on 'that journalist''s piece - I put chocoloate - well, cocoa powder - in my chilli too. Not a lot - it certainly doesn't taste chocolatey - but it does lend a certain richness. It's not a wholly insane thing to do.
Can't quibble with much of the rest of what either you or he are saying though...
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Mail: "What the Hell did they all die for?" Mirror: "Paras in to save 6,000 Brits" Express: "Britons flee as Afghanistan falls" Times: "Triumphant Taliban take Kabul as president flees" Guardian: "The fall of Kabul" Sun: "Escape from Kabul" Telegraph: "The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban"
You get the general idea.
Star: heatwave coming
So not cut through like Barnard Castle.
Damn, I would have thought the Star at least could be counted on to do a 'Carry on to Kabul' gag with Ghani as Kenneth Williams.
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
Yes yes yes whatever but you can't deny that is probably the single dumbest, stupidest, ugliest, most cloth-eared tweet ever made by a US politician, and I include the insane Trump in that definition of "US politician"
The fucking Democrats are as bad as the Trumpites. The US in in freefall
No. Really, they are not.
American politics has descended in to insanity - the democrats with their deranged identity politics and the trumpites with their conspiracy theories. I suppose Biden looks a bit more familiar and normal to those who came of age politically in the pre 2016 world, but then he goes and does this. For most of my life to date I would have instinctively sided with the democrats, but now I honestly don't know who I would vote for were I to be an American, it would be a very hard decision.
Yes, I'm in a fairly similar position, I was an Obamacan. Someone probably just about Republican, generally, if forced to choose - but I liked Obama and would have voted for him with great hope. Tho American politics is so different my perspective is almost meaningless. eg I find their arguments about gun laws utterly alien, and the abortion division confounds me, tho I respect the fact they have serious debates about serious things
Or they used to
This is where America has now left me bewildered. Their politics no longer seems serious. I know the British can be flippant and glib but America has gone way beyond our superficiality - the USA was recently governed by a certifiably insane president who attempted a coup, and it is now governed by a cabal of elitist wankers who think white people are evil.
I give up. America is MAD and FUCKED
Who on earth would move there now, as that journalist so eloquently put it in the Spectator?
I'd have voted for Obama too, with great enthusiasm. He is woke in the best possible way. It is hard to process how much the world has changed since 2016 though. The error people make is that they think that woke (2020 onwards) is a continuation of Obama style liberalism. In fact, it is a profound rupture from it, and is just as nuts as what Trump and his mad followers were up to.
Indeed. And of course Obama himself has condemned a lot of Wokeness
Anyway, tomorrow I must go to the Parthenon. I was meant to go today but drank too many beers in the rooftop sun and had a snooze
I see I mistook Naoussa for somewhere else. It seems to be a village on Paros. There's a tiny, almost uninhabited island with a similar name , that belongs to the shipowners.
I just want to correct a comment I made about my 18 year old granddaughter when I said she is in a literary group and has written seven books
She is in a literary group, but has now just finished writing her 'first' novel about a prince who was sent on a quest he would be executed on if he fails, he meets a bunch of people he can trust and others he cannot, and in the end he must make a choice between his freedom and his duty to his country
Sounds interesting for those who like novels and not sure where seven books came from
You were anticipating the inevitable sequels.
{Robert Jordan has entered the chat}
7 books would be the first trilogy..... In the trilogy of trilogies that would end up with 28 books.
Is it just very late or does something about the maths there not quite work...?
It is late, but the 4th book in a trilogy is an old joke. In the world of fantasy novels, especially so.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
They were done with it on the morning of September 11th too, however militant Islamic extremists were certainly not done with taking the fight to the Great Satan.
Unfortunately you cannot just turn off a terrorist threat at will
When John Major was talking about "the flapping of white coats", were you close by? You really have lost the plot over the last 24 hours.
I say this as someone normally respectful of your work.
9/11 was a defining moment that set up a cultural clash between militant Islam and an increasingly secular and liberal western world.
Today is merely the latest page in it, barely even the closing of a chapter let alone the book
"The "graveyard of empires" is a sobriquet associated with Afghanistan. The sobriquet originates from the alleged historical tendency that foreign powers often fail in their invasions of Afghanistan. It is unclear who coined the sobriquet, and the legitimacy of the sobriquet has been disputed.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Isn't it up to the people in it to fight back, then?
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
Mail: "What the Hell did they all die for?" Mirror: "Paras in to save 6,000 Brits" Express: "Britons flee as Afghanistan falls" Times: "Triumphant Taliban take Kabul as president flees" Guardian: "The fall of Kabul" Sun: "Escape from Kabul" Telegraph: "The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban"
You get the general idea.
Star: heatwave coming
So not cut through like Barnard Castle.
Probably a fair assessment. If we make the big but not implausible assumption that the British troops and civilians make it out in one piece, then (purely from the British media POV) this flap will all die down in a few days.
Most voters will either barely notice what has happened, or conclude that Afghanistan was and is an ungovernable pit - but that the ancient administration that first got us embroiled in all of this (they may or may not recall it was one of Blair's adventures) is at fault, whereas Johnson simply extricated us from the mire.
If any subsequent nasty news reports of atrocities can be blamed on Biden, as the dominant player in the alliance and prime motivator of the withdrawal, then the UK Government may avoid any significant fallout amongst its electorate at all.
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Probably is doing a lot of work there. The Taliban - vile. But it is clear as day that they have more effective support to govern than what we must now call the previous regime. Because in the final analysis, the people trying hardest to keep the previous regime going were the former occupying armies. And apart from America - which is the main occupying power here, and has an obvious emotional stake because it convinced so many young men to serve and die there - the world shouldn't care more than if the same vile Taliban won a free and fair election.
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
Independence does not automatically confer the ability to do anything even if one wanted. The UK has cocked up considerably in Afghanistan over a long period and as current PM Boris will rightly face questions about that, but absent the americans the options open to him and the government would definitely be constrained, that does not seem controversial.
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
They were done with it on the morning of September 11th too, however militant Islamic extremists were certainly not done with taking the fight to the Great Satan.
Unfortunately you cannot just turn off a terrorist threat at will
When John Major was talking about "the flapping of white coats", were you close by? You really have lost the plot over the last 24 hours.
I say this as someone normally respectful of your work.
9/11 was a defining moment that set up a cultural clash between militant Islam and an increasingly secular and liberal western world.
Today is merely the latest page in it, barely even the closing of a chapter let alone the book
I am not sure I disagree with your first paragraph. However your second is pure Eric Cantona.
Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi The President is to be commended for the clarity of purpose of his statement on Afghanistan and his action. The Taliban must know the world is watching its actions. We are concerned about reports regarding the Taliban’s brutal treatment of all Afghans, especially women and girls.
Yes, I guess, if the clear purpose was to humiliate America in front of the world and raise the hopes of all jihadis who hate the West. Yes, in that case, 10/10, A++, VG
America just had four years of humiliation with a barely functional adult as President. Everyone on here, and the American east coast media elite, are out of touch. The American public are done with being forever entangled in the world's worst places. They want investment in nation building at home. Biden's bills on infrastructure, elderly care and child care are doing just that.
Yes yes yes whatever but you can't deny that is probably the single dumbest, stupidest, ugliest, most cloth-eared tweet ever made by a US politician, and I include the insane Trump in that definition of "US politician"
The fucking Democrats are as bad as the Trumpites. The US in in freefall
No. Really, they are not.
American politics has descended in to insanity - the democrats with their deranged identity politics and the trumpites with their conspiracy theories. I suppose Biden looks a bit more familiar and normal to those who came of age politically in the pre 2016 world, but then he goes and does this. For most of my life to date I would have instinctively sided with the democrats, but now I honestly don't know who I would vote for were I to be an American, it would be a very hard decision.
Yes, I'm in a fairly similar position, I was an Obamacan. Someone probably just about Republican, generally, if forced to choose - but I liked Obama and would have voted for him with great hope. Tho American politics is so different my perspective is almost meaningless. eg I find their arguments about gun laws utterly alien, and the abortion division confounds me, tho I respect the fact they have serious debates about serious things
Or they used to
This is where America has now left me bewildered. Their politics no longer seems serious. I know the British can be flippant and glib but America has gone way beyond our superficiality - the USA was recently governed by a certifiably insane president who attempted a coup, and it is now governed by a cabal of elitist wankers who think white people are evil.
I give up. America is MAD and FUCKED
Who on earth would move there now, as that journalist so eloquently put it in the Spectator?
I'd have voted for Obama too, with great enthusiasm. He is woke in the best possible way. It is hard to process how much the world has changed since 2016 though. The error people make is that they think that woke (2020 onwards) is a continuation of Obama style liberalism. In fact, it is a profound rupture from it, and is just as nuts as what Trump and his mad followers were up to.
Indeed. And of course Obama himself has condemned a lot of Wokeness
Anyway, tomorrow I must go to the Parthenon. I was meant to go today but drank too many beers in the rooftop sun and had a snooze
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
Help me here Stuart. What can Johnson do? It is true we are but America's serfs.
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Probably is doing a lot of work there. The Taliban - vile. But it is clear as day that they have more effective support to govern than what we must now call the previous regime. Because in the final analysis, the people trying hardest to keep the previous regime going were the former occupying armies. And apart from America - which is the main occupying power here, and has an obvious emotional stake because it convinced so many young men to serve and die there - the world shouldn't care more than if the same vile Taliban won a free and fair election.
It would be interesting to actually ask the people what they thought, perhaps via en election?
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
Independence does not automatically confer the ability to do anything even if one wanted. The UK has cocked up considerably in Afghanistan over a long period and as current PM Boris will rightly face questions about that, but absent the americans the options open to him and the government would definitely be constrained, that does not seem controversial.
There was a Ben Wallace article in yesterday's telegraph that claims he tried to build a new group to fill the American void but was knocked back. He doesn't name names but it's not unreasonable to expect them to leak if there is too much domestic blowback about our exit.
Gray's article in the Guardian was bunkum. Russia and pals did not remain in anarchy, they reverted to normal states. And to the extent biological warfare broke out in the 2010s, it looks to have been overwhelmingly by state actors. The Taliban needs to be analysed not as hill-country anarchists but a former governing force. And it is obvious as day that the policy of the USA and the UK is to form a modus vivendi with the Taliban to ensure that Afghanistan is not used again as a base for terrorism against them.
Sean writes better stuff for free here than he writes for cash for twats like the Spectator. Maybe cos he’s sober when he writes for money?
You must be suggesting he is sober this evening then.
The difference is that he writes far more here for free than he does for cash. Inevitably when he posts vast quantities of paragraphs, a lot is going to be poor. But his best stuff here is much better than the tame guff he gets published.
And no, he’s already admitted he’s on goat wine this evening.
The Biden Administration are in charge so they take the hit.
US intelligence has been outrageously poor.
I have a big issue over the morality of the exit, bearing in mind the reputation of the Taliban. This was Biden's call, and an ill thought through call at that.
Johnson escapes any political fallout. I don't believe he has done anything wrong anyway.
I am shocked at the raft of absolutely hysterical posts by both HYUFD and Leon.
Foreign Secretary 2016-2018 PM 2019-present
Nothing wrong?!?
Johnson's hands are tied. If I felt I could beat up on him I would gladly do so.
Huh? I thought Brexit meant independence. But what’s this you say? Hands tied? Can’t possibly be true. Has Prince Andrew heard that Her Majesty’s prime minister is beholden to the rebel colonies?
After today's events I doubt even the PM of Belize would feel much need to take notice of what President Biden says let alone Boris and Prince Andrew
Does not change the fact the US is the leading western superpower and missing in action
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Probably is doing a lot of work there. The Taliban - vile. But it is clear as day that they have more effective support to govern than what we must now call the previous regime. Because in the final analysis, the people trying hardest to keep the previous regime going were the former occupying armies. And apart from America - which is the main occupying power here, and has an obvious emotional stake because it convinced so many young men to serve and die there - the world shouldn't care more than if the same vile Taliban won a free and fair election.
It would be interesting to actually ask the people what they thought, perhaps via en election?
Well, almost every type of government uses elections. That's an argument for the moral legitimacy of Lukashenko.
On topic Mike is right in that this could stick. I'm in California right now, and even my more liberal, pro-Biden friends are totally disgusted with Biden about this. Obviously the Republicans I know are horrified at the damage he's done to America's reputation as a reliable ally, which Trump had already besmirched through his abandonment of the Iraqi Kurds.
I think a lot will depend on whether Western news outlets find it possible to cover Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul. If the worst of the Taliban's atrocities go unrecorded, things might just die down after a week or two and Biden might get away with it.
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
Yes, the Taliban seem to be quite determined to allow peoplw ro leave - interestinglty.
The campaign is over, and they've got a full program of running a country now. The USA still has more firepower than any nation on earth, they've probably figured it's best to let them go with minimal incident. Their reputation does preceed them and fear of the Taliban will cause many people to try and flee for their lives, purely in worry about what the Taliban might do to them.
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
Yes, the Taliban, leadership at least, seem to be quite determined to allow people to leave. I find this interesting.
They've won. Massacres and executions before the only people who can prevent them have left makes no sense.
And yet they do seem different from the 1990's taliban, so far. I wonder what has changed.
It's been 20 years of hard grind. Whether they will act differently in meaningful ways remains to be seen, but it would be surprising if all those years have not changed the Taliban in some ways. Just look at how successful revolutionaries can become as repressive as those they once rebelled against to see how people can change.
I suppose the question here is how confident they are about how much they can restore of the old system how quickly, without provoking avoidable trouble.
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
Yes, the Taliban, leadership at least, seem to be quite determined to allow people to leave. I find this interesting.
They've won. Massacres and executions before the only people who can prevent them have left makes no sense.
And yet they do seem different from the 1990's taliban, so far. I wonder what has changed.
The burka was mandatory for women living under 90s taliban. Under this lot it is strongly advised. Apparently a woman was killed for dressing immodestly in a taliban held area though. Not sure they've changed all that much, they'll all have smartphones to communicate now though which probably helped everything fall so quickly to them.
@yanisvaroufakis · 49m On the day liberal-neocon imperialism was defeated once and for all, DiEM25's thoughts are with the women of Afghanistan. Our solidarity probably means little to them but it is what we can offer - for the time being. Hang in there sisters!
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
Yes, the Taliban, leadership at least, seem to be quite determined to allow people to leave. I find this interesting.
They've won. Massacres and executions before the only people who can prevent them have left makes no sense.
And yet they do seem somewhat different from the 1990's taliban in that, so far. I wonder what has changed.
PR. They are still killing and purging women in the places where the Western media can't see.
I've thought this too, but it also strikes me that the '90s Taliban under Mullah Omar would already have attacked the airport, whaevver the coseqiences for their government.
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
@yanisvaroufakis · 49m On the day liberal-neocon imperialism was defeated once and for all, DiEM25's thoughts are with the women of Afghanistan. Our solidarity probably means little to them but it is what we can offer - for the time being. Hang in there sisters!
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
Overfill in these situations is not unusual.
You can - as long as max take off weight not breached
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
Yes, the Taliban, leadership at least, seem to be quite determined to allow people to leave. I find this interesting.
They've won. Massacres and executions before the only people who can prevent them have left makes no sense.
And yet they do seem somewhat different from the 1990's taliban in that, so far. I wonder what has changed.
PR. They are still killing and purging women in the places where the Western media can't see.
I've thought this too, but it also strikes me that the '90s Taliban under Mullah Omar would already have attacked the airport, whaevver the coseqiences for their government.
*Whatever the consequences*, that should read - too sleepy ! 'NIght all.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
How long between the recall and the election of a new governor?
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Probably is doing a lot of work there. The Taliban - vile. But it is clear as day that they have more effective support to govern than what we must now call the previous regime. Because in the final analysis, the people trying hardest to keep the previous regime going were the former occupying armies. And apart from America - which is the main occupying power here, and has an obvious emotional stake because it convinced so many young men to serve and die there - the world shouldn't care more than if the same vile Taliban won a free and fair election.
The Taliban doesn’t have “more effective support”.
Afghanistan is barely a country. It’s a geographic confluence of independent tribes. They acknowledge the authority of whoever the regional power is. If America or Chins came back/in in force and with political will and bunch would swap sides.
Basically they pocket whatever bribes are offered from Kabul or Kandahar and then ignore as many of their instructions as they can get away with
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
@yanisvaroufakis · 49m On the day liberal-neocon imperialism was defeated once and for all, DiEM25's thoughts are with the women of Afghanistan. Our solidarity probably means little to them but it is what we can offer - for the time being. Hang in there sisters!
Slightly contrary view, but is there not an argument that the speed of the Afghan army collapse actually does Biden a favour? (Provided it doesn’t involve American loss of life). Because it simply underscores quite how futile the occupation was as there was clearly no long term viable solution that didn’t involve indefinite occupation, which is not something that is a political acceptable position in the US. When the Afghan army could basically throw in the towel overnight there was no “transitional” exit that could ever have worked.
America doesn’t believe in nation building, and certainly not when there is quite such a stark demonstration that it cannot succeed.
Pope Francis 'wants to hold Mass in Scotland' during COP26 summit in Glasgow
The report quotes a source saying the Pope would like to say a Mass for Scots.
“It would have to fit in with his address to the conference and his meetings with the bishops. There is some doubt about whether it can be fitted in, but the Pope says Mass every day and would like to say a Mass for the people of Scotland.“
@yanisvaroufakis · 49m On the day liberal-neocon imperialism was defeated once and for all, DiEM25's thoughts are with the women of Afghanistan. Our solidarity probably means little to them but it is what we can offer - for the time being. Hang in there sisters!
Also why the certainty that Afghanistan will “once again become a breeding ground for terrorism”? I have certainly read arguments that the Taliban recognised that their biggest mistake in the late 90s was to allow their country to be used as a base and make themselves the focus of the international community. Maybe they won’t make the same mistake and will opt for the quiet life?
Do people want an Afghan government whose only meaningful support base is foreign armed forces? Effectively another Bosnia-Herzegovina without the Western governor. This is an ugly, ugly transition but what on earth is the alternative if the government has no domestic power base except permanent occupation.
You mean, why should the world be upset that a militant minority gets to run a country against the wishes of probably most of the people in it?
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Probably is doing a lot of work there. The Taliban - vile. But it is clear as day that they have more effective support to govern than what we must now call the previous regime. Because in the final analysis, the people trying hardest to keep the previous regime going were the former occupying armies. And apart from America - which is the main occupying power here, and has an obvious emotional stake because it convinced so many young men to serve and die there - the world shouldn't care more than if the same vile Taliban won a free and fair election.
The Taliban doesn’t have “more effective support”.
Afghanistan is barely a country. It’s a geographic confluence of independent tribes. They acknowledge the authority of whoever the regional power is. If America or Chins came back/in in force and with political will and bunch would swap sides.
Basically they pocket whatever bribes are offered from Kabul or Kandahar and then ignore as many of their instructions as they can get away with
And in there lies an answer to how you keep the Taliban in check.
O/T - does anyone have a clue what the Australian strategy on Covid is? They seem to be continuing to pursue zero Covid (cases) with mass vaccination a major part of this. Despite all the evidence from around the world that whilst vaccinations might be highly effective against serious illness and death from delta variant, they aren’t much of a solution to achieve a zero case outcome. I read one piece a couple of days ago saying that they would not be able to fully release restrictions without cutting cases to zero (even with high vaccination rates) because of modelling that showed doing so would result in 1,500(!) deaths over a six month period. 170,000 Australians die every year. On average 2-3,000 of flu.
O/T - does anyone have a clue what the Australian strategy on Covid is? They seem to be continuing to pursue zero Covid (cases) with mass vaccination a major part of this. Despite all the evidence from around the world that whilst vaccinations might be highly effective against serious illness and death from delta variant, they aren’t much of a solution to achieve a zero case outcome. I read one piece a couple of days ago saying that they would not be able to fully release restrictions without cutting cases to zero (even with high vaccination rates) because of modelling that showed doing so would result in 1,500(!) deaths over a six month period. 170,000 Australians die every year. On average 2-3,000 of flu.
I'm in Sydney - the strategy was to basically keep Zero covid through hotel quarantine and closed borders until the vaccination program had run through.
However now the delta varient has come in, and we're at 400+ cases a day in NSW, the strategy has changed to keeping a lockdown in place until 70-80% are double vaccinated, then I assume opening up again.
The biggest failures have been around supply of Pfizer, creating fear around the AZ jab (which is manufactured in Melbourne so we have an abundance), and sheer complacency around zero covid.
Life until June had effectively returned to normal, and nobody in the govt either state or federal were willing to have a conversation with the public about the reality of covid, that it wasn't going to go away and at some point we'd have to live with it with the aid of vaccines.
In all it's been a complete sh*t show. Now we're in indefinite lockdown. The only upside being I don't have to commute into the CBD and I'm 5 minutes to the beach. We're also having a great winter weather wise. Blue sky days, 19/20 degrees. Very pleasant indeed.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
How long between the recall and the election of a new governor?
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
The recall and replacement take place together. The ballot will have line for should the governor be recalled and then who should the new governor be if the recall is successful.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
How long between the recall and the election of a new governor?
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
The recall and replacement take place together. The ballot will have line for should the governor be recalled and then who should the new governor be if the recall is successful.
Also, the system is insane.
This is how it works. Voters get two ballot papers.
On the first is the simple question: Recall Newsom, Yay or Nay
On the second, are are fifty (yes fifty) names of candidates for the Governorship.
If Newsom is recalled, then the highest scoring of the fifty becomes Governor. Even if they only got 5% of the vote.
There are nine Democratic candidates.
There are about thirty Republican candidates.
There are another dozen Libertarian, Green and "other" candidates.
Right now, a Republican called Larry Adler is leading the field. But he's scoring less than 10% in opinion polls.
There is no current serious Democratic candidate. Of their nine candidates on the ballot paper, none hold elected office, and only two have their own Wikipedia page.
It is therefore entirely possible that Newsom gets recalled, and an entirely random Democrat (and they are entirely random) wins the election. Indeed, given how split the Republican field is, it's actually quite likely.
"Decisions in Afghanistan by Republicans and Democrats alike were driven much more by domestic political competition than by realities inside Afghanistan. George W. Bush couldn’t afford to quit Afghanistan when he should have, early in 2002. John Kerry and Barack Obama were compelled to overpromise about Afghanistan despite their own misgivings. Donald Trump backdated a debacle because he wanted a seemingly cheap win for 2020."
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
Overfill in these situations is not unusual.
You can - as long as max take off weight not breached
On this topic: the most people ever flown on a plane was in similar circumstances: "One of the aircraft, an El Al 747, carried at least 1,088 people, including two babies who were born on the flight, and holds the world record for the most passengers on an aircraft."
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
How long between the recall and the election of a new governor?
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
The recall and replacement take place together. The ballot will have line for should the governor be recalled and then who should the new governor be if the recall is successful.
Also, the system is insane.
This is how it works. Voters get two ballot papers.
On the first is the simple question: Recall Newsom, Yay or Nay
On the second, are are fifty (yes fifty) names of candidates for the Governorship.
If Newsom is recalled, then the highest scoring of the fifty becomes Governor. Even if they only got 5% of the vote.
There are nine Democratic candidates.
There are about thirty Republican candidates.
There are another dozen Libertarian, Green and "other" candidates.
Right now, a Republican called Larry Adler is leading the field. But he's scoring less than 10% in opinion polls.
There is no current serious Democratic candidate. Of their nine candidates on the ballot paper, none hold elected office, and only two have their own Wikipedia page.
It is therefore entirely possible that Newsom gets recalled, and an entirely random Democrat (and they are entirely random) wins the election. Indeed, given how split the Republican field is, it's actually quite likely.
Though presumably whoever wins with such pisspoor electoral support is also vulnerable to recall.
On topic. Not often I agree with Mike but I think on this one he is right. Biden's approval ratings were already drifting downwards and the very poor US consumer confidence numbers do not bode well. There is also the slight matter of a whole slew of high single digit / low double digit price increases being introduced from next month, which will hammer home the inflation argument.
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
How long between the recall and the election of a new governor?
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
The recall and replacement take place together. The ballot will have line for should the governor be recalled and then who should the new governor be if the recall is successful.
Also, the system is insane.
This is how it works. Voters get two ballot papers.
On the first is the simple question: Recall Newsom, Yay or Nay
On the second, are are fifty (yes fifty) names of candidates for the Governorship.
If Newsom is recalled, then the highest scoring of the fifty becomes Governor. Even if they only got 5% of the vote.
There are nine Democratic candidates.
There are about thirty Republican candidates.
There are another dozen Libertarian, Green and "other" candidates.
Right now, a Republican called Larry Adler is leading the field. But he's scoring less than 10% in opinion polls.
There is no current serious Democratic candidate. Of their nine candidates on the ballot paper, none hold elected office, and only two have their own Wikipedia page.
It is therefore entirely possible that Newsom gets recalled, and an entirely random Democrat (and they are entirely random) wins the election. Indeed, given how split the Republican field is, it's actually quite likely.
Though presumably whoever wins with such pisspoor electoral support is also vulnerable to recall.
Were one of the more fringe Republicans to be elected, it would be a near certainty.
It is also worth noting that there is a challenge to the current California law in the works: because it allows a candidate to get far fewer votes than the incumbent and still become Governor, it contravenes (apparently) something.
The US is restricting flights out for its Afghan employees to prioritise getting its own citizens out. Not surprising on priority but also suggesting they are somewhat concerned they arent going to get people out before more shit hits the fan.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
There are some tweets floating around suggesting the Americans are heavily overfilling their transport aircraft to get people out of there.
Overfill in these situations is not unusual.
People are light. I’ve been in an overfilled flight in Africa. I sat on a cooler box. It was mildly terrifying.
But the core point is that overfilled fights in these circumstances are pretty typical.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
So it seems yesterday wasn’t an illusion, Kabul looks totally screwed this morning. Let’s just hope that relative peace lasts long enough to airlift everyone out.
Not too sure the military transports will care too much about seat belts for every passenger - humans are lighter than most cargo they carry, and they won’t need to be full of fuel either. There was quite the fleet of aircraft flying over the Gulf states last night.
Good to see such shady business practices being clamped down upon. If they’re willing to lay bets on events, they should be open to all their customers.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
It appears some of the gunfire at Kabul airport was US troops keeping the crowds of Afghans at bay.
U.S. forces fired in the air at Kabul's airport on Monday to prevent hundreds of civilians running onto the tarmac, a U.S. official said.
"The crowd was out of control," the official told Reuters by phone. "The firing was only done to defuse the chaos."
Hundreds of Afghans have jammed the airport trying to get out of the country after Taliban insurgents entered the capital on Sunday. U.S. troops are in charge at the airport, helping in the evacuation of embassy staff and other civilians.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
In 1979, to many Republicans, Reagan was a joke. And worse, a joke who had challenged a sitting Republican President, leading to a Democratic victory.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I don't think the average American voter will care. Unless there is a massacre of US citizens in the withdrawal process - the Taliban seem content to let people go though. The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
I don’t think that’s true: ultimately America’s position in the world has been dented by this. And Americans do care about how they are seen by the world.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
Who is the Reagan figure you are anticipating to turn the tide?
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
Romney will be 77 at the next election!
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2024 produced a President none of us expected.
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Agreed. There’s a hundred Senators and fifty Governors, who could all come from nowhere.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.
Comments
Mail: "What the Hell did they all die for?"
Mirror: "Paras in to save 6,000 Brits"
Express: "Britons flee as Afghanistan falls"
Times: "Triumphant Taliban take Kabul as president flees"
Guardian: "The fall of Kabul"
Sun: "Escape from Kabul"
Telegraph: "The West flees as Kabul falls to Taliban"
You get the general idea.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/sep/28/afghanistan.terrorism20
https://aeon.co/essays/how-john-grays-philosophy-helped-me-understand-my-war-experience
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
So not cut through like Barnard Castle.
"This is not Saigon."- Blinken
Riiiight
{Pik Botha has entered the chat, along with Ian Smith}
Can't quibble with much of the rest of what either you or he are saying though...
Anyway, tomorrow I must go to the Parthenon. I was meant to go today but drank too many beers in the rooftop sun and had a snooze
Goodnight, PB
There are two possible canaries in the coalmine coming up for Biden. The first is next month's recall election in California where Gavin Newsom looks to be struggling, the other is Virginia's Governor election in December, which looks close.
I think if both of these are lost, then there is going to be a lot of soul-searching going on. The CA recall election could also have a big practical impact in that CA's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is increasingly shaky but has refused to step down. A Republican Governor would likely appoint a GOP Senator and the Democrats would lose control of the Senate.
Today is merely the latest page in it, barely even the closing of a chapter let alone the book
"The "graveyard of empires" is a sobriquet associated with Afghanistan. The sobriquet originates from the alleged historical tendency that foreign powers often fail in their invasions of Afghanistan. It is unclear who coined the sobriquet, and the legitimacy of the sobriquet has been disputed.
Graveyard of empires (Afghanistan) - Wikipedia"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graveyard_of_empires
Most voters will either barely notice what has happened, or conclude that Afghanistan was and is an ungovernable pit - but that the ancient administration that first got us embroiled in all of this (they may or may not recall it was one of Blair's adventures) is at fault, whereas Johnson simply extricated us from the mire.
If any subsequent nasty news reports of atrocities can be blamed on Biden, as the dominant player in the alliance and prime motivator of the withdrawal, then the UK Government may avoid any significant fallout amongst its electorate at all.
We are wired to believe in progress but it never really happens, it is just way of fulfilling our endless search for meaning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001–present)
That last date is a bit optimistic.
And no, he’s already admitted he’s on goat wine this evening.
Does not change the fact the US is the leading western superpower and missing in action
I think a lot will depend on whether Western news outlets find it possible to cover Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul. If the worst of the Taliban's atrocities go unrecorded, things might just die down after a week or two and Biden might get away with it.
The USA still has more firepower than any nation on earth, they've probably figured it's best to let them go with minimal incident. Their reputation does preceed them and fear of the Taliban will cause many people to try and flee for their lives, purely in worry about what the Taliban might do to them.
https://twitter.com/HKesvani/status/1427013879289237506?s=20
I suppose the question here is how confident they are about how much they can restore of the old system how quickly, without provoking avoidable trouble.
As it stands its believed that some US citizens are still in the city, a city occupied by the Taliban so they really are living off the charity of the beards for free passage to assembly points or the airport.
It looks bad now but it really could go horribly wrong. The Saigon analogy is somewhat apt but there is the danger of another one, Tehran 1980.
Not sure they've changed all that much, they'll all have smartphones to communicate now though which probably helped everything fall so quickly to them.
I think we need to recognise them and see what can be done. But...
Overfill in these situations is not unusual.
Presumably Feinstein could step down in the interregnum allowing Newson (pelosi’s nephew?) to appoint a successor
Afghanistan is barely a country. It’s a geographic confluence of independent tribes. They acknowledge the authority of whoever the regional power is. If America or Chins came back/in in force and with political will and bunch would swap sides.
Basically they pocket whatever bribes are offered from Kabul or Kandahar and then ignore as many of their instructions as they can get away with
America doesn’t believe in nation building, and certainly not when there is quite such a stark demonstration that it cannot succeed.
However now the delta varient has come in, and we're at 400+ cases a day in NSW, the strategy has changed to keeping a lockdown in place until 70-80% are double vaccinated, then I assume opening up again.
The biggest failures have been around supply of Pfizer, creating fear around the AZ jab (which is manufactured in Melbourne so we have an abundance), and sheer complacency around zero covid.
Life until June had effectively returned to normal, and nobody in the govt either state or federal were willing to have a conversation with the public about the reality of covid, that it wasn't going to go away and at some point we'd have to live with it with the aid of vaccines.
In all it's been a complete sh*t show. Now we're in indefinite lockdown. The only upside being I don't have to commute into the CBD and I'm 5 minutes to the beach. We're also having a great winter weather wise. Blue sky days, 19/20 degrees. Very pleasant indeed.
This is how it works. Voters get two ballot papers.
On the first is the simple question: Recall Newsom, Yay or Nay
On the second, are are fifty (yes fifty) names of candidates for the Governorship.
If Newsom is recalled, then the highest scoring of the fifty becomes Governor. Even if they only got 5% of the vote.
There are nine Democratic candidates.
There are about thirty Republican candidates.
There are another dozen Libertarian, Green and "other" candidates.
Right now, a Republican called Larry Adler is leading the field. But he's scoring less than 10% in opinion polls.
There is no current serious Democratic candidate. Of their nine candidates on the ballot paper, none hold elected office, and only two have their own Wikipedia page.
It is therefore entirely possible that Newsom gets recalled, and an entirely random Democrat (and they are entirely random) wins the election. Indeed, given how split the Republican field is, it's actually quite likely.
"Decisions in Afghanistan by Republicans and Democrats alike were driven much more by domestic political competition than by realities inside Afghanistan. George W. Bush couldn’t afford to quit Afghanistan when he should have, early in 2002. John Kerry and Barack Obama were compelled to overpromise about Afghanistan despite their own misgivings. Donald Trump backdated a debacle because he wanted a seemingly cheap win for 2020."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/bin-laden-2001-end-war-afghanistan/619767/
"One of the aircraft, an El Al 747, carried at least 1,088 people, including two babies who were born on the flight, and holds the world record for the most passengers on an aircraft."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Solomon
https://twitter.com/HHichilema/status/1427066544794869763?s=19
It is also worth noting that there is a challenge to the current California law in the works: because it allows a candidate to get far fewer votes than the incumbent and still become Governor, it contravenes (apparently) something.
But the core point is that overfilled fights in these circumstances are pretty typical.
Low morale, no support and poor politics explain why Afghan army folded
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/low-morale-no-support-and-poor-politics-explain-why-afghan-army-folded/ar-AANlwL5
The firms can still appeal the decision before the Provincial Court of Asturias. The resolution is one of the first of its kind in all of Spain and the first in the capital of Asturias.
https://www.yogonet.com/international/noticias/2021/07/30/58610-spain-courts-rule-against-betfair-and-bet365-for-suspending-accounts-of-customers-on-a-streak
The USA is a parochial nation on stuff like this now.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-pm-trudeau-announces-federal-election-will-be-held-sept-20-2021-08-15/
Not too sure the military transports will care too much about seat belts for every passenger - humans are lighter than most cargo they carry, and they won’t need to be full of fuel either. There was quite the fleet of aircraft flying over the Gulf states last night.
But these things can also be very short lived. From the disaster of Carter’s military mission in iran, to the fall of communism was less than the time between now and the Global Financial Crisis.
"The crowd was out of control," the official told Reuters by phone. "The firing was only done to defuse the chaos."
Hundreds of Afghans have jammed the airport trying to get out of the country after Taliban insurgents entered the capital on Sunday. U.S. troops are in charge at the airport, helping in the evacuation of embassy staff and other civilians.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-troops-fire-air-scatter-afghan-civilians-kabul-airport-2021-08-16/
Were I a moderate US Democrat, I would be urging everyone I knew to register Republican for 2024 to coalesce around a sane non-Trump nominee. Hard to see past Romney.
It turns out that there is a Christian satire site called the Babylon Bee,
I shan’t comment, except to note a few of their most recent Stories:
Scientists Rename Climate Change 'COVID' So Americans Will Immediately Give Up All Their Rights To Fight It
CNN Praises Taliban For Wearing Masks During Attack
After two septuagenarians in a row, maybe they might want to look at someone a little younger, who still has a good mind and doesn’t need an afternoon nap?
Obama came from nowhere. Trump came from nowhere. If Iowa hadn’t messed up its count, we might have had President Buttigieg.
I will continue to sell the favorites.
Theoretically, it’s difficult to see past Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination, she’ll either be the incumbent VP or the President by 2024, and is unlikely to be challenged even if she underperforms between now and then.
The Republican side, on the other hand, really could be anyone. Presumably they will very quickly sort themselves in the primaries, to rally against Trump or whoever he stands beside.