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YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%.
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https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/30/1030329/machine-learning-ai-failed-covid-hospital-diagnosis-pandemic
In re fili praevii: I wonder if the Latin is because its full of gender to troll the wokists?
Also - because it gives those parents with money to send their brats to private schools an advantage? At the moment Latin can't seriously be used as an educational criterion. It's like an O level in sheep-farming - only the Welsh, etc., have a hope of doing it. But make it a general educational qualification ...
If it was the Lib Dems up 5, and Labour/Greens level then perhaps the Tories would have something to worry about.
There will be a limit to the number of seats the Lib Dems can campaign hard in.
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2021/bio-detection-dogs-identify-covid-19-94-accuracy
The vast majority of Tory held Remain seats in the South East have the LDs as the main challengers but there is just a 1% swing to the LDs on this poll from the Tories, so it would need major Labour tactical voting for the Tories to be concerned at the seats going yellow and even then they should narrowly hold onto a majority if they hold the Redwall
The tories still have a massive lead in the south east: and they can encroach further in to the red wall, if they have the right strategy. There will of course be some consequences for them in other parts of the country, but it is inevitable that departing from thatcherite free market policies would mean losing some wealthy southern voters, who were the main beneficiaries of these economic policies. Where these voters turn to is unclear: neither the greens nor the lib dems are a particularly good fit. So there is some movement, but in my view it is unexpected and unsuprising.
No female competitors either, mind (possible exception being the owners of the chariot racing teams, who IIRC were the ones who got the medals, not the chauffeurs, but I can't recall if they all had to be male owners).
They impressed the Swedish King sufficiently that he granted New the right to row in the Swedish royal colours (purple and gold) in perpetuity
I too have made insane predictions way out of my area of competence - I know this might not come as a shock, but it was a bit of an epiphany for me, just this morning
eg Yesterday I confidently predicted that Team GB would do quite badly compared to reasonable expectations. I said we would finish behind Oz, Russia and maybe another European country. I said we might finish around 9th in the medal table, and get around 40-45 medals
This morning I considered my prediction, and I laughed at my own stupidity
Where was I getting my info with which to make these precise calls? Out of my ass, basically. It is all a hunch, an intimation. In fact it's not even a hunch, it's more like a spasm in reaction to early disappointments. There are people out there - on this site - who know far more about these Games, right down to individual athletes in more obscure sports, and their various chances. Their prophesies are 100 times more valuable than mine.
If my "prediction" turns out to be anywhere near correct it will be nearly pure luck and almost zero judgement.
My only defence is that I never bet on these hunches. I only ever bet after proper consideration and research. Which is probably why I bet very rarely
To be at serious risk of losing their majority they would need to lose about 20-30 seats to Labour in the Red Wall too as you correctly point out and as Hartlepool and Batley and Spen show Labour are barely able to hold onto all their Red Wall seats they hold now let alone regain them from the Tories.
Starmer has made it safe for some upper middle class Southern Tory Remainers to vote LD maybe but he has yet to make any progress at all in regaining working class Leave voters in the North and Midlands from the Tories
https://twitter.com/pfau/status/1421228742362402819?s=19
Albeit that would see Starmer claim the scalps of IDS and Theresa Villiers
I reckon it is time to reintroduce pok-ta-pok: the Mesomaerican ball game (of the Maya, Aztecs, etc)
It is simple but quite compelling. Two teams of maybe four players each compete on a hard stone ball-court, not unlike a real tennis court. With bats, arms and hips they propel a large, firm rubber ball at each other and also at a stone hoop placed high to the side. Victory is achieved via points, or by slotting the ball through the hoop.
it's not a game for the faint hearted, however. For example, the ball is genuinely hard, and can cause severe bruising, internal injuries - even death in extreme cases. Also, at the end of the game the entire losing team is ritually sacrificed by decapitation, and after that they also sacrifice and dismember the entire winning team. And then the next teams play, for a while, with the severed heads and hands.
So it might not be quite in tune with the Woke agenda in British Olympics, but on the other hand the inquest into TeamGB's performance would be rendered largely pointless, thus saving money?
YouGov’s own map identifies nine of its chosen seats that would fall to Labour based on its polling, with LibDems gaining three and a further four that are too close to call.
Which tells him or her which dogs have been by, and about their health. They live in a very different world to us, as any dog owner who has the privilege of sharing their life with another species will already know.
If they were disposed to wonder, they might question why we spend so much time standing still looking at stuff that they cannot see.
They are all pretty posh universities anyway
"In 'He sees sugar', 'sugar' is the direct object of the verb and we say that means it's in the accusative case. In 'Sugar is in the jar', 'sugar' is the subject of the verb and we say it's in the nominative case. In English no special endings are used, and as you can see the two instances of the word 'sugar' take exactly the same form. But many other languages use special endings to tell you the case, i.e. what relationship the noun is in with the verb or with some other clause element. That gives more scope with word order, which you can vary for emphasis more easily because the ending of 'sugar' will tell you what case it's in."
"Nouns can take other forms than these two. For example, you can get a prepositional phrase such as 'to Mary'. In 'He gives the letter to Mary', we say 'Mary' is in the dative case. Functionally 'Mary' is the indirect object of the verb. In English this functional relationship can be expressed using the preposition 'to', but it can also occur without a preposition, in 'He gives Mary the letter'. 'Mary' is in the same case here as it is in 'He gives the letter to Mary': the dative. In languages such as Russian, you just use the ending for the dative case and in this example you wouldn't use a preposition at all." Etc.
Aspect can be introduced in English grammar in a similar fashion. For example:
"There are three simple tenses - past, present, and future. In English you can make each one progressive (or continuous), to communicate that a state is continuing, or you can make it perfect, to communicate that something happened (or a state existed) before the viewpoint time but with relevance that still exists in that time, which may perhaps be because it's still going on. Or you can do both. For example if you do both, you can get 'He had been thinking' (past perfect progressive), 'He has been thinking' (present perfect progressive), and 'He will have been thinking' (future perfect progressive). In English the 'present', 'present perfect', 'present progressive', and 'present perfect progressive', are usually all called separate tenses, giving 12 all told. But in some languages there is the concept of 'aspect', and it would make just as much sense to say that 'progressive' and 'perfect' are 'aspects', respectively showing that something is 'actually going on' and that something 'went on beforehand and has continuing relevance'." Etc.
I.e. actually bring out the concepts of grammar - function, form, relationships, tense. I have given this in accelerated form, but it can be taught in ~10 hours including time allowed for exercises.
https://twitter.com/ClementLanot/status/1421446726305652738?s=19
Latin has neuter, so you can identify as they/them and not he or she. It is therefore perfect for these woke times.
In theory, they are in an excellent position to do so, but so far they have made very little progress outside the Euro elections. (And we aren’t getting those any more.)
BBC News - Afghanistan: Fighting rages as Taliban besiege three key cities
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58040141
*The British team is currently sat on 28 medals
*Boxing has produced a bronze, three more semi-finalists who now can't do any worse than bronze, and three more quarter-finalists
*Sailing has also produced a bronze and British crews are competitive in six of the eight events that have yet to complete (two in first place, three in second and one in fourth the last time I looked)
*The three-day eventers are doing well at the moment
*The men's golfers are competitive and the women's haven't started yet
*The individual apparatus finals in gymnastics haven't happened yet
*Flatwater canoeing hasn't started yet (and I've not the foggiest whether there are any competitive Brits going in that event, but I'm pretty sure there were medallists last time)
*The whole athletics programme has only just got started (and I know it doesn't look promising from the British POV, but there are a *lot* of events and the team might yet get something out of it)
*AND track cycling has yet to get underway
In medal table terms I rate it as a competition for 5th with Australia, and 50 medals looks achievable. That'd be broadly comparable with Beijing, and a credible overall achievement IMHO.
CON TO LAB:
- Chingford & Woodford Green
- Chipping Barent
- Filton & Bradley Stoke
- Hendon
- Kensington & Chelsea
- Milton Keynes N
- Stroud
- Truro & Falmouth
- Wycombe
CON to LDM:
- Cheltenham
- Wimbledon
- Winchester
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1421178611223121922?s=20
Considering the way that Lab and Lib Dem tore chunks out of each other in 2019, surely some tactical unwind is going to be expected? Take Batley + Spen, where it looks like there was just enough of a Lib to Lab shift for Kim Leadbetter to fend of the catty one. That can fairly easily lead to fewer Lib Dem votes and more seats- look at the history of the Alliance/Lib Dems in the 80's and 90's. What matters for the Lib Dems is getting votes in the right places, not national swing.
More generally, the efficiency of the anti-Conservative vote is at least as important as the size of the Conservative vote. May 2017 got a much higher percentage share of the vote than Cameron 2015, but fewer seats.
If cutting the classics means an instant downwards improvement to the posho-meter reading , to help meet the targets mandated by government, they'll have to consider it very seriously.
We Tories are in power and in government and have set no state school target, we are not Labour and do not care, we support selection on merit and high academic standards, hence Williamson is pushing Latin in state schools. So if they want to suck up to Williamson if anything universities will expand their classics courses and do state school outreach for them.
Plus not all classics students will be privately educated and Oxbridge are 60% state school now anyway
The problem is only in seats where more than one non-Tory candidate can reasonably claim to have a good chance. I don't think there will be an election pact, but a sharp word with constituency parties to concentrate on geuinely winnable seats ought to be possible.
--AS
(Or, to put it another way, they got half the vote share of 1983 and more than twice the seats.)
This demonstrates (a) that the absolute level of Conservative vote is very important to them, and (b) tactical voting matters.
Whenever you think you have reached the depths of their depravity, they have the capacity to surprise on the downside. The Moche Culture of north Peru (circa 8th century AD) is particularly good at this. OMFG. They worshipped a tarantula God who demanded they sacrifice their own relatives, they gave the victims special drugs so the blood ran extra slow and the sacrifice took hours. During this process, the family would REDACTED REDACTED
Meanwhile the Aztecs could sacrifice thousands of people in a single day in their capital, Tenochtitlan
Here's a Guardian article denouncing the evil Spanish for destroying this marvellous culture, in particular it complains about
"massacres of some of our earliest thinkers such as the Aztec"
SOME OF OUR EARLIEST THINKERS
https://www.theguardian.com/education/commentisfree/2015/mar/23/philosophy-white-men-university-courses
That is the biggest difference between what someone makes it, and what the market is I have ever heard of in my lifetime working in betting, incredible. The maximumest of all maximum bets - like saying something that is 10/1 should be 1/100!!!
Wouldn't the Lib Dem campaign effect be diluted in a GE compared to a one off like a by election though?
I find it pretty amazing the YouGov finds the Lib Dems down on their 2019 vote mind you, cant have that
But history suggests that voters get better at tactical voting, the longer a party remains in power. I suspect that will happen this time around too - not that important in 2024, but a big deal in 2028.
Chariot racing and horse archery are both ancient disciplines ripe for revival. In a previous thread I also invented elephant javelin, but the provision of the necessary animals could prove somewhat challenging. Horse javelin could still be fantastic though.
Also, jousting.
That cop bouncing around like a boxer must be on something...
In particular, the Aztecs were basically the Nazis of MesoAmerica. Extremely aggressive, militaristic, ethnocentric, bloodthirsty, autocratic at the top and servile at the bottom, and absolutely obsessed with death and blood. They were so nasty even the other gruesome, human-sacrificing Mexican cultures hated them (which is one reason the Aztec Empire fell so easily to Cortez, he got the Aztecs' local enemies on side)
And yet a unique and remarkable civilisation - for all its hideous flaws - was totally obliterated, and much was lost
Was this ultimately good, or bad? I can never quite decide.
Whether a Labour or LD defeats a Tory in London and the South they would still make Starmer PM in a hung parliament
I suspect the whole 'graduate' thing is about certain sorts of graduates clustering in certain sorts of seats. Highly educated Arundel and South Downs looks safe for now. The question to ask is: Why? If all the educated posh are voting centre left?