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Alastair Meeks says Tory voters are crackers here – it is hard to disagree – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    A subject close to my heart - my girlfriend says the midwives and nurses have not been at all pushy about this, & even seem to be saying don’t bother, reading between the lines.

    “ Public Health England data suggests about 51,724 pregnant women have received one Covid vaccine in England so far. Of these, around 20,648 have had their second dose.
    This is out of approximately 606,500 pregnant women in England in 2020-21, based on estimates from GP records.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58014779

    My wife was incorrectly advised by the person doing vaccinations (in May, contrary to the official guidance) not to have a first jab if she could be pregnant - it was very unlikely that she would have been pregnant at the time and she went ahead. For second jab, there was a possibility of being pregnant, but having reviewed the guidance and the evidence (I'm a epidemiologist, so that's kind of my day job) we went ahead with that too. She wasn't pregnant, as it turns out.

    The evidence is limited - a bit like the debate over children there's no evidence of vaccine harm and no likely mechanism for it, but not much strong evidence of Covid harm either. The most robust finding so far seems to be increased risk of pre-term delivery for mothers who have had Covid (and possibly low birth weight, but that could just be due to increased risk of pre-term) and possibly increased risks to pregnant women infected with Covid compared to general population. Infections have long been linked with pre-term birth, so not a surprise if the evidence supports that.

    Midwives are often quite anti-intervention and pro letting nature take its course. That was partly a (justified) reaction against the increased medicalisation of childbirth over a few decades, but the Royal College changed guidance a bit after some cases of pursuing a 'natural' birth ending badly. Our midwife for second birth strongly pushed for a home birth. We declined, being even with blue lights up to 45 minutes from hospital - we'd have been open to it if much closer - probably just as well as we would, if at home, have ended up doing that journey in a rush.

    We'd have gone ahead with vaccination, even had my wife been pregnant, but it's not a black and white call. Our next door neighbour is delaying hers and I respect that decision (and hope she avoids infection until vaccinated after giving birth so she doesn't get to test out whether it was a good call).
    Yes, my girlfriend is delaying hers until after the baby is born. There’s no long term evidence of what it does to unborn babies yet, same as born adults I know, but at least we have all our limbs etc. The long shadow of thalidomide I think
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Re: Boris’s Brolley.

    Who cares?

    It’s sad that many of my fellow Boris-haters should try to attack him on this.

    This is Boris. Boris brollies gonna buckle.

    Actually I watched it live and to be fair he was trying to offer it to others then it just went inside out and be honest I thought he dealt with it quite well and it was amusing

    Let is hope as a nation we have not stopped finding such incidents amusing
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342

    OT Olympics – medal ceremonies – I am coming round to the new, Covid-precautionary, way of having athletes put the medals round their necks themselves, rather than have an official sometimes struggle to place it over their heads. I'm not really sure why they need to be masked for half the ceremony but not all of it. Perhaps it is in case they sing along to the national anthem.

    The mask requirement at ceremonies is the most unwelcome spoiler of the games. As a medal winner you woudl want pictures of it showing your face not a mask
    And totally performative.....
    The medal ceremony would be worth watching if the medals were personally placed round the winners necks by Boris while holding an umbrella in a high wind.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    A subject close to my heart - my girlfriend says the midwives and nurses have not been at all pushy about this, & even seem to be saying don’t bother, reading between the lines.

    “ Public Health England data suggests about 51,724 pregnant women have received one Covid vaccine in England so far. Of these, around 20,648 have had their second dose.
    This is out of approximately 606,500 pregnant women in England in 2020-21, based on estimates from GP records.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58014779

    My wife was incorrectly advised by the person doing vaccinations (in May, contrary to the official guidance) not to have a first jab if she could be pregnant - it was very unlikely that she would have been pregnant at the time and she went ahead. For second jab, there was a possibility of being pregnant, but having reviewed the guidance and the evidence (I'm a epidemiologist, so that's kind of my day job) we went ahead with that too. She wasn't pregnant, as it turns out.

    The evidence is limited - a bit like the debate over children there's no evidence of vaccine harm and no likely mechanism for it, but not much strong evidence of Covid harm either. The most robust finding so far seems to be increased risk of pre-term delivery for mothers who have had Covid (and possibly low birth weight, but that could just be due to increased risk of pre-term) and possibly increased risks to pregnant women infected with Covid compared to general population. Infections have long been linked with pre-term birth, so not a surprise if the evidence supports that.

    Midwives are often quite anti-intervention and pro letting nature take its course. That was partly a (justified) reaction against the increased medicalisation of childbirth over a few decades, but the Royal College changed guidance a bit after some cases of pursuing a 'natural' birth ending badly. Our midwife for second birth strongly pushed for a home birth. We declined, being even with blue lights up to 45 minutes from hospital - we'd have been open to it if much closer - probably just as well as we would, if at home, have ended up doing that journey in a rush.

    We'd have gone ahead with vaccination, even had my wife been pregnant, but it's not a black and white call. Our next door neighbour is delaying hers and I respect that decision (and hope she avoids infection until vaccinated after giving birth so she doesn't get to test out whether it was a good call).
    Yes, my girlfriend is delaying hers until after the baby is born. There’s no long term evidence of what it does to unborn babies yet, same as born adults I know, but at least we have all our limbs etc. The long shadow of thalidomide I think
    Yes, thalidomide left a long shadow. I don't THINK there were any 'adverse consequences' to any I dispensed. But I don't know.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    OT Olympics – medal ceremonies – I am coming round to the new, Covid-precautionary, way of having athletes put the medals round their necks themselves, rather than have an official sometimes struggle to place it over their heads. I'm not really sure why they need to be masked for half the ceremony but not all of it. Perhaps it is in case they sing along to the national anthem.

    The mask requirement at ceremonies is the most unwelcome spoiler of the games. As a medal winner you woudl want pictures of it showing your face not a mask
    And totally performative.....
    But athletes do remove their masks in order to be photographed on the podium. That is why I wondered if it might be to do with a precaution against increased aerosolisation (assuming that is a word) if athletes sang their national anthems.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Recriminations already starting in Team GB rowing. "Medals and more" (the woke approach) being blamed for the underperformance. Athletes to be told you win medals or you fuck off for Paris in a reversal of the Tokyo approach. Weak willed athletes to be left at home if they can't handle training to win gold.

    Max, you have a link to a bit more info on this Woke approach please?

    The only things I've notice this time are TeamGB proudly tweeting lots of athletes taking the knee, and that we're supposed to be proud of Tom Daley's gold medal win as a landmark moment for gay rights, rather than the fact he's Tom Daley and has finally achieved his dream in his 4th Olympics.
    I get the impression you are seeing stuff here that just doesn't exist because you are looking for it. The stuff on Tom Daley was just nice stuff focusing on his long trip to gold. Lots was mentioned like his son, his partner, his diving history, his father's death, but you hear gay and think woke.

    It is just what reporters do when a Brit wins. It's nice not woke.
    Agreed - it's a good personal story and the coming out is a part of that but hardly the focus.
    Red meat for the Woke-Finder Generals though.
    I am genuinely nonplussed by @MaxPB's original comment that "Medals and more" is 'the woke approach'.

    Surely, the stereotypical 'woke' approach to sport would be 'down with competition - everyone's a winner'?

    Or have I once again misunderstood what I should be thinking as card-carrying Wokist?
    The new funding approach is exactly this....it used to be money is focused on sports and individuals for Team GB to maximize medal returns...the new approach is fund sports to encourage a more diverse number of sports and encourage diverse participants, even if it results in less "winners".

    It isn't implied, it is the stated aim. Everyone is a winner in that they get funded to do a sport, even if the output is less "winners" in actual competition.
    I think I get it now: any negatives are to be blamed on 'Wokeism'; any positives are down to the sterling efforts of the anti-woke brigade.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    OT Olympics – medal ceremonies – I am coming round to the new, Covid-precautionary, way of having athletes put the medals round their necks themselves, rather than have an official sometimes struggle to place it over their heads. I'm not really sure why they need to be masked for half the ceremony but not all of it. Perhaps it is in case they sing along to the national anthem.

    The mask requirement at ceremonies is the most unwelcome spoiler of the games. As a medal winner you woudl want pictures of it showing your face not a mask
    And totally performative.....
    But athletes do remove their masks in order to be photographed on the podium. That is why I wondered if it might be to do with a precaution against increased aerosolisation (assuming that is a word) if athletes sang their national anthems.
    No, just like everywhere there is no real evidence base for what should be done, just lots of hunches and mitigation’s put in that may or may not work.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited July 2021

    Beijing warns of ‘counter-measures’ as Royal Navy sails South China Sea

    … the Global Times, which said “the very idea of a British presence in the South China Sea is dangerous. If London tries to establish a military presence in the region with geopolitical significance, it will only disrupt the status quo in the region … And if there is any real action against China, it is looking for a defeat.”

    Later this year, the UK will also permanently assign two warships to the region.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/30/china-royal-navy-south-china-sea-warning-beijing

    Brexit, Covid, Debt, Clown.

    What next? Cold War?

    Yes, Stuart. It's all to do with Brexit.

    That's why the French did one this year, did similar in 2019, and plan to establish an "amphibious group that should operate as far as Japan".
    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210212-france-wades-into-the-south-china-sea-with-a-nuclear-attack-submarine

    Nope. It's to do with maintaining law and protecting our interests.

    What is it with Brexit obsessives? Can't they think about anyhing else? :smile:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    edited July 2021

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    Id also hope they have checked their maths, unlike the previous stuff coming out in recent times...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    The interesting question is the dosage interval - some suggestions from the pre-print the other day that extending the interval increased the desired T-cell behaviour. Which would have a big impact on the long term effectiveness of the vaccination

    And then we have stuff like - https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:


    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.

    Severe psychological damage? Lol.
    You don't think a nation wearing facemasks has any negative consequences at all?

    okey dokey.
    Wearing masks is a courtesy, a sign of good manners and respect for other people. It means people you come into contact with don't have to worry about whether you are breathing the killer plague.

    Whether courtesy is something needs to be legislated for is another matter.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    I don't see why BigG. Of course it can only be if you are a remainer and of course when people say this they are only referring to recent history (so doesn't include Harold's tactics at Hastings), but otherwise it is the key events we had direct control over in the last few decades.
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    edited July 2021
    malcolmg said:

    YoungTurk said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    I regret to inform PB lefties that Boris wrestling with an umbrella has now gone globally viral, and not in a good way for those that loathe him

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1420779759655587849?s=20

    It's an interesting contrast with Macron and the flowers

    I think the reason it caught in the wind is he lifted it up to offer it to the woman behind him. Old fashioned may be, but a nice gesture
    Trying hard for your hero Charles, doubt many are daft enough to be taken in though. Given his record I doubt he was offering her a brolly.
    You can actually see him doing it. She holds up her hand to say no thanks.

    By the way, Silvio Berlusconi can be very charming. You don't get how this works, do you?
    You are too thick to get what I meant.
    Really? You think people who acknowledge that a man was offering a woman an umbrella when they actually see him doing it must be stupid, or else merely trying to defend their hero, because you know he's handsy and a swordsman and no man who is handsy or a swordsman would possibly offer a brolly to a woman - not even if you can see him doing it - because all such men always, in all circumstances, conduct themselves exactly like the Dirty Vicar in the Monty Python sketch, or like Berlusconi with that traffic warden.

    Start with "syllogism" and "enthymeme" maybe - or a mirror.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    From October 2019:

    'You were warned that reducing the funding for addiction services would lead to an increase in deaths'

    ITV News Scotland Correspondent @PeterAdamSmith presses Nicola Sturgeon on the Scottish Government's record tackling the drug crisis in the country


    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1183725776136523776?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
    For LOLs, you can purchase a staggering amount of data about yourself for not very much.

    Interestingly, it is quite hard to do at an individual level. The bulk data is pricey, of course, and one of the conditions of sale is that it isn't made generally available.

    The later comes from a thing a decade (or 2) ago, when a privacy group setup a stall at various party conferences in the UK & US, where they invited people to look themselves up on a full commercial dataset. Even then, the politicians were shocked.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    I would suggest that it is dwarfed by the slave trade and the Bengal famine of 1943, to name but two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2021

    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    A subject close to my heart - my girlfriend says the midwives and nurses have not been at all pushy about this, & even seem to be saying don’t bother, reading between the lines.

    “ Public Health England data suggests about 51,724 pregnant women have received one Covid vaccine in England so far. Of these, around 20,648 have had their second dose.
    This is out of approximately 606,500 pregnant women in England in 2020-21, based on estimates from GP records.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58014779

    My wife was incorrectly advised by the person doing vaccinations (in May, contrary to the official guidance) not to have a first jab if she could be pregnant - it was very unlikely that she would have been pregnant at the time and she went ahead. For second jab, there was a possibility of being pregnant, but having reviewed the guidance and the evidence (I'm a epidemiologist, so that's kind of my day job) we went ahead with that too. She wasn't pregnant, as it turns out.

    The evidence is limited - a bit like the debate over children there's no evidence of vaccine harm and no likely mechanism for it, but not much strong evidence of Covid harm either. The most robust finding so far seems to be increased risk of pre-term delivery for mothers who have had Covid (and possibly low birth weight, but that could just be due to increased risk of pre-term) and possibly increased risks to pregnant women infected with Covid compared to general population. Infections have long been linked with pre-term birth, so not a surprise if the evidence supports that.

    Midwives are often quite anti-intervention and pro letting nature take its course. That was partly a (justified) reaction against the increased medicalisation of childbirth over a few decades, but the Royal College changed guidance a bit after some cases of pursuing a 'natural' birth ending badly. Our midwife for second birth strongly pushed for a home birth. We declined, being even with blue lights up to 45 minutes from hospital - we'd have been open to it if much closer - probably just as well as we would, if at home, have ended up doing that journey in a rush.

    We'd have gone ahead with vaccination, even had my wife been pregnant, but it's not a black and white call. Our next door neighbour is delaying hers and I respect that decision (and hope she avoids infection until vaccinated after giving birth so she doesn't get to test out whether it was a good call).
    Yes, my girlfriend is delaying hers until after the baby is born. There’s no long term evidence of what it does to unborn babies yet, same as born adults I know, but at least we have all our limbs etc. The long shadow of thalidomide I think
    Yes, thalidomide left a long shadow. I don't THINK there were any 'adverse consequences' to any I dispensed. But I don't know.
    There are plenty of babies being born post maternal vaccination, the most obvious conclusion to draw is that they'll have significantly less long term risk to covid than being born to a non vaccinated mother.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/16/florida-woman-vaccine-dose-baby-covid-coronavirus-antibodies
    It's completely an individual's choice in this group (No compulsion) though as pregnancy is not permanent the herd benefit will eventually be realised and pregnant women are going to be more cautious than average.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    Selebian said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I regret to inform PB lefties that Boris wrestling with an umbrella has now gone globally viral, and not in a good way for those that loathe him

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1420779759655587849?s=20

    Yes. Great to have Benny Hill as our PM
    To be fair, it appears he offers the brolly to woman behind who doesn't have one (she has a hat). I think it is Patel.
    And she vehemently (and wisely) declines!
    Oooh. That Boris. He's such a card. His brolly blew inside out at a memorial service What next? His trousers fall down during a state funeral?
    Are you genuinely annoyed he had a brolley mishap, a situation out of his control? As that would be crackers.
    Totally in his control, the useless t**ser cannot even hold a brolly up.
    I have a confession to make - I too have suffered brolley mishaps.

    Of course, this may be why someone should hold a brolley for him, but its look like servant work.
    Surprised Charles has not loaned him a couple.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    Windrush seems to be happening again following Brexit, with EU nationals who have made their homes in the UK for decades.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    GB women a goal down to Australia in the football, though they've been the better team.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    Selebian said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I regret to inform PB lefties that Boris wrestling with an umbrella has now gone globally viral, and not in a good way for those that loathe him

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1420779759655587849?s=20

    Yes. Great to have Benny Hill as our PM
    To be fair, it appears he offers the brolly to woman behind who doesn't have one (she has a hat). I think it is Patel.
    And she vehemently (and wisely) declines!
    Oooh. That Boris. He's such a card. His brolly blew inside out at a memorial service What next? His trousers fall down during a state funeral?
    Are you genuinely annoyed he had a brolley mishap, a situation out of his control? As that would be crackers.
    Totally in his control, the useless t**ser cannot even hold a brolly up.
    I have a confession to make - I too have suffered brolley mishaps.

    Of course, this may be why someone should hold a brolley for him, but its look like servant work.
    Surprised Charles has not loaned him a couple.
    They are being broken on a wheel outside the postern gate for making eye contact.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    YoungTurk said:

    malcolmg said:

    YoungTurk said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    I regret to inform PB lefties that Boris wrestling with an umbrella has now gone globally viral, and not in a good way for those that loathe him

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1420779759655587849?s=20

    It's an interesting contrast with Macron and the flowers

    I think the reason it caught in the wind is he lifted it up to offer it to the woman behind him. Old fashioned may be, but a nice gesture
    Trying hard for your hero Charles, doubt many are daft enough to be taken in though. Given his record I doubt he was offering her a brolly.
    You can actually see him doing it. She holds up her hand to say no thanks.

    By the way, Silvio Berlusconi can be very charming. You don't get how this works, do you?
    You are too thick to get what I meant.
    Really? You think people who acknowledge that a man was offering a woman an umbrella when they actually see him doing it must be stupid, or else merely trying to defend their hero, because you know he's handsy and a swordsman and no man who is handsy or a swordsman would possibly offer a brolly to a woman - not even if you can see him doing it - because all such men always, in all circumstances, conduct themselves exactly like the Dirty Vicar in the Monty Python sketch, or like Berlusconi with that traffic warden.

    Start with "syllogism" and "enthymeme" maybe - or a mirror.
    Jog on Loser, see if you can find a sense of humour on your long run.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    I must be mistaken #2

    I was assured that GB News would lend much needed diversity to the UK’s broadcast output and would certainly not devolve into a Fox style, race-baiting, perma-war on woke.

    Just for the record I do not watch GBnews and therefore cannot comment on its content

    I did watch it for the first couple of days but the sets, the presenters and most everything about it was a turn off

    I understand Farage is now improving its ratings and to me that is extremely depressing and is just another reason for me to keep it switched off
    Farage is a very engaging interviewer . He is naturally cheerful . I am defo Remain in the EU but do like his interviewing style - Love the "talking Pints" slot with him interviewing over a pint
    When does he do Topless Darts with the GBNews Bunny (Arlene Foster)?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2021

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    The interesting question is the dosage interval - some suggestions from the pre-print the other day that extending the interval increased the desired T-cell behaviour. Which would have a big impact on the long term effectiveness of the vaccination

    And then we have stuff like - https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875
    Would a booster sort out the t-cell issue for a "3 weeker" ?

    OTOH I think even if it's offered to her my other half may well pass up a booster. She is having a rough time with the 2nd pfizer. I'd probably take it up - we're both < 50 though so probably won't be offered under the oh so careful JCVI plan.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    tlg86 said:

    GB women a goal down to Australia in the football, though they've been the better team.

    The score suggests otherwise, the point of the game is not running about prettily. Putting the leather object between the posts of your opponents makes you the better team.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
    Had some pretty useless green gunpowder tea in the post from Booths recently. Well disappointed. I used to enjoy using the self service coffee grinders in the chorley branch when I were a lad.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    Windrush seems to be happening again following Brexit, with EU nationals who have made their homes in the UK for decades.
    Without wanting to join those who think the UK uniquely evil, I might tentatively suggest the Atlantic slave trade as a greater source of shame than leaving a free trade area which some thought wasn't necessarily working to our advantage. Or the Boer war. Or the Chinese opium wars.

    But Roger's comment is presumably genuine, and shows how deranged a certain sort of remainer has become.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Pulpstar said:

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    The interesting question is the dosage interval - some suggestions from the pre-print the other day that extending the interval increased the desired T-cell behaviour. Which would have a big impact on the long term effectiveness of the vaccination

    And then we have stuff like - https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875
    Would a booster sort out the t-cell issue for a "3 weeker" ?

    OTOH I think even if it's offered to her my other half may well pass up a booster. She is having a rough time with the 2nd pfizer.
    When did she have her second dose? I had two bad nights after my second dose on Monday. I also had that horrible dry mouth you get when you're not feeling well. But I'm all good now, so hopefully she won't have to suffer for too long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    GB women a goal down to Australia in the football, though they've been the better team.

    The score suggests otherwise, the point of the game is not running about prettily. Putting the leather object between the posts of your opponents makes you the better team.
    Indeed, see Scotland v anyone half decent for the last 25 years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    The treatment of the Windrush generation and the Iraq war were government action. Whereas Brexit was simple prejudice. 52% of the population lined up behind Farage. I can't think of a bigger national disgrace
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
    For LOLs, you can purchase a staggering amount of data about yourself for not very much.

    Interestingly, it is quite hard to do at an individual level. The bulk data is pricey, of course, and one of the conditions of sale is that it isn't made generally available.

    The later comes from a thing a decade (or 2) ago, when a privacy group setup a stall at various party conferences in the UK & US, where they invited people to look themselves up on a full commercial dataset. Even then, the politicians were shocked.....
    Of course currently no one has to carry a mobile phone or use cards to pay for everything or drive a car which makes them only trackable by using human resources. With a digital vaxport you would be coerced into taking a phone with you
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Recriminations already starting in Team GB rowing. "Medals and more" (the woke approach) being blamed for the underperformance. Athletes to be told you win medals or you fuck off for Paris in a reversal of the Tokyo approach. Weak willed athletes to be left at home if they can't handle training to win gold.

    Max, you have a link to a bit more info on this Woke approach please?

    The only things I've notice this time are TeamGB proudly tweeting lots of athletes taking the knee, and that we're supposed to be proud of Tom Daley's gold medal win as a landmark moment for gay rights, rather than the fact he's Tom Daley and has finally achieved his dream in his 4th Olympics.
    I get the impression you are seeing stuff here that just doesn't exist because you are looking for it. The stuff on Tom Daley was just nice stuff focusing on his long trip to gold. Lots was mentioned like his son, his partner, his diving history, his father's death, but you hear gay and think woke.

    It is just what reporters do when a Brit wins. It's nice not woke.
    Agreed - it's a good personal story and the coming out is a part of that but hardly the focus.
    Red meat for the Woke-Finder Generals though.
    I am genuinely nonplussed by @MaxPB's original comment that "Medals and more" is 'the woke approach'.

    Surely, the stereotypical 'woke' approach to sport would be 'down with competition - everyone's a winner'?

    Or have I once again misunderstood what I should be thinking as card-carrying Wokist?
    The new funding approach is exactly this....it used to be money is focused on sports and individuals for Team GB to maximize medal returns...the new approach is fund sports to encourage a more diverse number of sports and encourage diverse participants, even if it results in less "winners".

    It isn't implied, it is the stated aim. Everyone is a winner in that they get funded to do a sport, even if the output is less "winners" in actual competition.
    I think I get it now: any negatives are to be blamed on 'Wokeism'; any positives are down to the sterling efforts of the anti-woke brigade.
    No...I am just stating the policy for funding athletes in the future. It isn't about focusing on winners anymore, which has seen a huge improvement in results over the past 20 years, it is about encouraging diversity.

    Some of it is to break the feedback loop of good at a sport, more money, good at that sport, do badly, you lose money, more likely to do badly in the future.

    Its not some Daily Mail / GB News about "wokeism", UK Sport state very clear there is now a focus on encouraging diversity, even if it hits results. Its in their official press releases.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
    *has a quick neb*

    Blimey, Dane Road? I remember my dad dragging me to the industrial estate by the then station now Metrolink stop in the school holidays. £815k? Its very nice, but is that really the going rate? I note from Zoopla that the previous sale price was £165k in 2008. I assume its been extended and the garden poshed up since then, but nice money if you can get it!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617
    Pulpstar said:

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    The interesting question is the dosage interval - some suggestions from the pre-print the other day that extending the interval increased the desired T-cell behaviour. Which would have a big impact on the long term effectiveness of the vaccination

    And then we have stuff like - https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875
    Would a booster sort out the t-cell issue for a "3 weeker" ?

    OTOH I think even if it's offered to her my other half may well pass up a booster. She is having a rough time with the 2nd pfizer. I'd probably take it up - we're both < 50 though so probably won't be offered under the oh so careful JCVI plan.
    The t-cell response was improved, not an "issue" as such.

    As to the effect of a booster on T-cells, I don't know. Not seen any research on that.

    Boosters *have* been proven to increase antibody levels massively.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited July 2021

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    I think Brexit is the biggest mistake made by any government since the Second World War, in that it acts so directly against identified national interests and so contrary to the claims that were made for it - "taking control", "Global Britain" etc. But I don't think it was stupid or necessarily wrong in principle, as long as you understand the implications.

    More importantly, it's a done deed and we need to find a way to live with the consequences, something neither Leavers nor Remainers have any great interest in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    The interesting question is the dosage interval - some suggestions from the pre-print the other day that extending the interval increased the desired T-cell behaviour. Which would have a big impact on the long term effectiveness of the vaccination

    And then we have stuff like - https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875
    Would a booster sort out the t-cell issue for a "3 weeker" ?

    OTOH I think even if it's offered to her my other half may well pass up a booster. She is having a rough time with the 2nd pfizer.
    When did she have her second dose? I had two bad nights after my second dose on Monday. I also had that horrible dry mouth you get when you're not feeling well. But I'm all good now, so hopefully she won't have to suffer for too long.
    Wednesday. She works nights though and had a farrier appointment yesterday when she'd normally be able to rest. I told her to take a sick day (Midnight -> 7) yesterday but she wouldn't have it !
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    For some reason the Germany of 1914-18 is seen in a different light to that of 1933-1945. Or perhaps it’s understandable in terms of the Holocaust. I would argue that the two are more similar than many appreciate, certainly in terms of militaristic expansionist policies, and desire for a German hegemony in Europe. The treaties imposed by the winning Germany in the east are testament to this. Make no mistake, not fighting in 1914 would not have led to a happy place for the world.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    In an alternate world.....

    Cold war between Imperial Britain and Imperial Germany, which is building an ever bigger fleet. Paid for by the money squeezed from occupied Belgium and a chunk of France.

    An Imperial Germany that has proven twice that War is Good, War is God. So run by the hyper militarists.

    Around 1930 something in the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut for Chemistry in Berlin, some interesting discoveries in nuclear physics are made......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021

    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    17h
    The data from Israel, for fully mRNA vaccinated reduced protection vs severe illness from Delta, in age > 60, down from 97% to 81%, is yet unpublished, but has led to a change in policy to offer booster shots for this age group
    https://ft.com/content/b6a80442-a566-43ca-b23d-7793d417eddb by
    @MehulAtLarge

    @FT




    If AZ doesn't fade as fast then euro politicians are going to look even more stupid than they do over vaccines. Of course, not published yet on mRNA so caveats.

    Again, their results are very different to the findings in the UK big dataset, plus Canada research (and US).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    This is the point I was making before.

    Wages sometimes rise.
    But sometimes, the business just closes down.

    I feel this particularly in the context of London where so many restaurants and arts venues are shuttered and won’t be coming back.

    First world problems obviously, but London managed to become a world capital of both food and arts and there’s value in that even beyond the raw economic activity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    For some reason the Germany of 1914-18 is seen in a different light to that of 1933-1945. Or perhaps it’s understandable in terms of the Holocaust. I would argue that the two are more similar than many appreciate, certainly in terms of militaristic expansionist policies, and desire for a German hegemony in Europe. The treaties imposed by the winning Germany in the east are testament to this. Make no mistake, not fighting in 1914 would not have led to a happy place for the world.
    There was a fairly concerted effort to paper over this side of Germany after WWI. After all, if it was true, then the world war would have been a good idea. And might happen again. Much more comfortable to see it all as a mistake.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    Story from Bowness earlier this week - we've booked you a table on Friday (tonight)( and Saturday night as half the restaurants are closed this weekend due to Covid pings.

    Whether it's true I will find out in 4 hours when we get there for the weekend.

    And staff are impossible to find unless you have accommodation available.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    GB women a goal down to Australia in the football, though they've been the better team.

    The score suggests otherwise, the point of the game is not running about prettily. Putting the leather object between the posts of your opponents makes you the better team.
    Indeed, see Scotland v anyone half decent for the last 25 years.
    Exactly , hence my expert knowledge of the game, and many not even half decent to boot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    Your last sentence, it depends on which bit of the war you’re talking about, and which general. French, for example, was pretty useless, and sidelined arguably the ablest of the 1914 generals, James Grierson, for daring to be cleverer than him. (Grierson’s death from a heart attack in the early days of the war was a serious setback for early British efforts - e.g. he was one of the first generals to come up with an intelligent use for aircraft in wartime.)

    Haig was enduring rather than imaginative. The tragedy was that this lack of imagination led him to believe that if a breakthrough could be achieved the war would be over and lives saved - so he lost thousands of lives in attacks intended to do that which had no chance of succeeding. Equally, he had the sense to see which generals would be both imaginative and effective - the likes of Monash, Currie and Byng - and was willing to give them their heads, and support them in the requests for new technology to support their tactics.

    On the first paragraph, no. Had it been Russia vs. Germany I think probably the famously lazy and indecisive Asquith would have failed to do anything, but once France and British trade links to the continent were threatened by a country led by a lunatic who openly talked about seizing land and money from the countries he conquered and reducing them to near penury, there wasn’t any choice but to go to war.

    That’s not to underplay the terrible human cost of what transpired, but it was pretty well inevitable.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    By the time the Schlieffen plan was put in motion perhaps it was too late. But the years leading up to the war involved a remarkable degree of careless gamesmanship on all sides, including the reckless accumulation of alliances, that took far too little account of how horrific and costly a European war was likely to be. There was no excuse for that kind of ignorance either as the US civil war 50 years before had given a clear signal of the slaughter that it would entail.

    To have got into the position we found ourselves in in 1914, and to then have thrown away a generation of young men and left ourselves broken and impoverished in the war's wake, points to a massive failure of statecraft somewhere down the line. And it's not as if it prevented the emergence of an aggressive militarised German state, either: within 15 years Hitler was in power and preparing for the conquest of Europe.

    The whole thing was a fucking disaster and I refuse to believe that there wasn't a better outcome available to us if we'd done things differently in the years 1900-1918.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    I think people are getting their knickers in a twist over the Boris umbrella incident. It is just a bit of fun.

    Firstly a correction. It didn't just blow up when he tried to pass it to Priti, it collapsed down. It then blew up when he tried to put it back up which made it funnier (two cockups on the trot) and sitting next to someone having no trouble with an umbrella at all. Morecombe and Wise could not have choregraphed it better.

    It did not reflect badly on Boris but fitted in with his persona of being a clown making it funnier, but nobody thinks worse of him and it might endear him to some. Priti came out of it with all positives. Firstly she declined the umbrella then clearly enjoyed the slapstick.

    I had a good laugh and made no further judgements. Brexit and Covid seem a touch more important.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    This is the point I was making before.

    Wages sometimes rise.
    But sometimes, the business just closes down.

    I feel this particularly in the context of London where so many restaurants and arts venues are shuttered and won’t be coming back.

    First world problems obviously, but London managed to become a world capital of both food and arts and there’s value in that even beyond the raw economic activity.
    There is quite a flourishing arts sector here too - and it is suffering from a lack of staff as well.

    It is all very well talking about Levelling Up. Not doing things which will Level Down and Destroy what already exists would be even better.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Charles said:

    Equally telling that education doesn't make the top three for Tories.

    Not really. I wouldn’t want the country to have (1) poor education (2) poor health (3) an inadequate welfare system (4) onerous taxation (5) uncontrolled immigration (6) lots of other things

    A “top 3” is meaningless because they are all important to get right.
    On the contrary, I think it's very telling. If you think a few hundred unfortunate souls washing up on our shores will have a bigger impact on our future happiness and prosperity than having a well resourced and effective education system then you are deluded. Politics is all about priorities. If you have daft priorities, you will get bad outcomes. Similarly, if you have politicians who use unimportant stuff to distract you from their manifest incompetence on the things that matter.
    Interesting that you conflate the Channel crossings with the issue of mass economic migration.

    That is Faragist position.
    Isn't it the dinghies that people are getting their knickers in a twist about? We have tough rules governing economic migration already, a points based immigration system no less, so there's nothing to worry about there surely.
    Personally I am a big fan of immigration. I am married to the daughter of immigrants. I have three beautiful kids who are grandchildren of immigrants. I work for a business created by an immigrant. Many of my friends, neighbours and colleagues are immigrants. The idea that immigration is one of the great problems facing us as a country is for the birds.
    Well, the Faragists are getting their knickers in a twist about the dinghies. Not so sure about other people.

    As a second generation immigrant, married to an immigrant etc, I would say that the problem came from loss of control of process combined with a stubborn refusal to understand that there could be any downsides.

    I have done very very well out of mass economic migration. Other people, less so.

    Due to the structure of the world economy and society, there is now and will be for the foreseeable future a shortage of skilled people. While China and India are opening new universities at a rate of knots, they are barely keeping up with internal demand as their economies shift to services. This means, that for the educated, immigration can't do much to reduce wages or working conditions.

    The view further down the social ladder is very different.
    We are a rapidly ageing society and face shortages of labour of all types. I have no doubt that immigration will continue including so-called unskilled immigration, because the economy will demand it. The best way to protect working conditions is to have a government that wants to do that and strong institutions like trade unions advocating for them.
    There is also a stubborn refusal to talk about the upsides of immigration on the other side.
    Yes - simply attempting to shutdown the debate with "You can't talk about it. You have to accept it" is ultimate self -defeating in a democracy.

    The advocates of mass economic migration have to understand that there are alternatives. Simply repeating that "the economy will demand it" is to ignore the politics.

    You and I might not like the results, but that does not mean that they are not possible.
    Please outline these alternatives you refer to.
    - Mechanisation.
    - Increases in rates of pay (often linked with mechanisation)
    - Shutting down sectors that can't run without cheap labour.
    - Acceptance of long term labour shortage, in various areas, leading to a shortage of supply.

    If you don't believe me, go look at Japan.
    It’s not that I don’t believe there are alternatives, it’s that nobody wants to actually put them on the table for criticism.

    Japan of course has suffered economic stagnation for a generation (25 years). GDP per capita was below the UK’s in 2019 I think.

    I do think more British businesses should be mechanising, although I suspect this is less to do with immigration levels and more to do with long-standing and systemic aversion to capex.

    And mechanisation doesn’t really do much for large parts of the service industry (care working, retail etc) where the alternative seems more likely to be the sector shut down that you refer to rather than wage increases.
    Indeed. The problem is that many people will now take being Japan as a preference.

    The mechanisation issue - alot of that was tax. The French company tax system for example, is very very pro investment in machinery. The recent tax holiday on investment has had the suppliers of equipment running 3 shifts....

    The problem is that we have created a situation where a large number of jobs in the economy are not capable of supporting much of a life. Living in one room of a house share as an adult? How do families work, then? etc.

    From above, this looks like "Jobs the locals won't do". From below this looks like "Jobs not worth doing". Many of these jobs remind me of the story of what happens to pub landlords - it's not a job so much as a losing game, which requires a steady supply of mugs....
    I am struggling to understand your last few points.
    I think you are conflating lots of things, maybe.

    1. Jobs that can’t sustain a life - which?
    2. Jobs that can’t sustain a life without direct government subsidy - I think about Uber drivers - agree this is an issue.
    3. Mugs coming in and doing these jobs

    On point (3), these people are not mugs. Either the life is better, or the opportunity allows capital accumulation, or the opportunity allows for upskilling and career progression.

    Looked at in macro, EU migrants were massively net contributors to U.K. coffers, we’re more educated, increased U.K. productivity, and increased average wages.

    That doesn’t go necessarily in all sectors, with all wages etc.. but Brexity windbags like to pooh-pooh these basic facts.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    There was a landlady from Cumbria talking about the pingdemic on Classic fm news yesterday, I wondered if she was your daughter
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    This is the point I was making before.

    Wages sometimes rise.
    But sometimes, the business just closes down.

    I feel this particularly in the context of London where so many restaurants and arts venues are shuttered and won’t be coming back.

    First world problems obviously, but London managed to become a world capital of both food and arts and there’s value in that even beyond the raw economic activity.
    There is quite a flourishing arts sector here too - and it is suffering from a lack of staff as well.

    It is all very well talking about Levelling Up. Not doing things which will Level Down and Destroy what already exists would be even better.
    Well, I agree.
    Violently, even!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
    *has a quick neb*

    Blimey, Dane Road? I remember my dad dragging me to the industrial estate by the then station now Metrolink stop in the school holidays. £815k? Its very nice, but is that really the going rate? I note from Zoopla that the previous sale price was £165k in 2008. I assume its been extended and the garden poshed up since then, but nice money if you can get it!
    Your Dad's days out weren't up to much!

    It's actually a completely different house to the one sold in 2008. It was knocked down and a bigger one rebuilt. Still, as you say, nice work if you can get it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    ICYMI: We've published our latest data on the real-world effectiveness and impact of #COVID19 #vaccines.

    https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1421040873945579522?s=20

    Latest UK figures for Pfizer...

    vs Symptomatic disease 85 to 95%
    vs Hospitalization 90 to 99%
    vs Mortality 95 to 99%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    Cookie said:

    FF43 said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    Windrush seems to be happening again following Brexit, with EU nationals who have made their homes in the UK for decades.
    Without wanting to join those who think the UK uniquely evil, I might tentatively suggest the Atlantic slave trade as a greater source of shame than leaving a free trade area which some thought wasn't necessarily working to our advantage. Or the Boer war. Or the Chinese opium wars.

    But Roger's comment is presumably genuine, and shows how deranged a certain sort of remainer has become.
    Good point about the Opium Wars; something which has only just started to appear in the revenge/repayment column.
    As far as the slave trade is concerned, at least we had a significant part in stopping it. And, as far as I know, doing so wasn't particularly to our advantage. Perfidious Albion and all that excepted, of course!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pagan2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
    For LOLs, you can purchase a staggering amount of data about yourself for not very much.

    Interestingly, it is quite hard to do at an individual level. The bulk data is pricey, of course, and one of the conditions of sale is that it isn't made generally available.

    The later comes from a thing a decade (or 2) ago, when a privacy group setup a stall at various party conferences in the UK & US, where they invited people to look themselves up on a full commercial dataset. Even then, the politicians were shocked.....
    Of course currently no one has to carry a mobile phone or use cards to pay for everything or drive a car which makes them only trackable by using human resources. With a digital vaxport you would be coerced into taking a phone with you
    Facial recognition.

    Unless you wear a mask of course.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    This is one for @TheScreamingEagles but shows the current issues in China

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/too-big-to-fail-debt-crisis-at-property-giant-china-evergrande-tests-xi-jinping

    China's Evergrande was 3 years ago the biggest property company on earth with Hui worth $42bn and it's all gone to pot.

    Now that's of interest but of real interest is that Tether has a lot of Chinese commercial paper which gets really interesting when you think about the connection of Evergrande, Tether and Bitcoin.

    https://boards.4channel.org/biz/thread/39294125 (don't click from work as it's 4chan) has an interesting read. If you have any cryptocurrency it's probably time to get out.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Sign of the times


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    For some reason the Germany of 1914-18 is seen in a different light to that of 1933-1945. Or perhaps it’s understandable in terms of the Holocaust. I would argue that the two are more similar than many appreciate, certainly in terms of militaristic expansionist policies, and desire for a German hegemony in Europe. The treaties imposed by the winning Germany in the east are testament to this. Make no mistake, not fighting in 1914 would not have led to a happy place for the world.
    I think the Holocaust is part of it, but also remember there were no countries fully occupied by Germany in the First World War. Belgium and Poland were the nearest, and Poland was previously effectively a dependency of Russia, so wasn’t necessarily sorry to see the Germans arrive, and Belgium while abominably treated by the Germans was quite small and made less mark on popular consciousness than might be expected.

    In World War Two Germany occupied, plundered and raped Belgium, Holland, Denmark, France, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Poland, the western parts of Russia up to Moscow and the River Volga, and large parts of North Africa. And they treated them just as badly as the Germans had treated the Belgians in 1914, but the scale was to put it mildly somewhat larger.

    There was, therefore, much more to condemn.

    One of the more awkward things German historians had to deal with in the twenty years after 1945 was how similar the actions of the Kaiserreich and the Nazis were, and how much continuity there was between the two. It made it much harder to pass Hitler off as a temporary aberration. That led to much destruction of embarrassing documents. It is said, for example, that Gerhard Ritter was once caught in an archive burning documents that he had found in a waste paper basket. All of them showed the Kaiser had a grandiose desire to conquer Europe and make Germany a hegemonic power. It wasn’t until Fischer in the 1960s that this began to change, and he was distinctly unpopular for unearthing these skeletons.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
    *has a quick neb*

    Blimey, Dane Road? I remember my dad dragging me to the industrial estate by the then station now Metrolink stop in the school holidays. £815k? Its very nice, but is that really the going rate? I note from Zoopla that the previous sale price was £165k in 2008. I assume its been extended and the garden poshed up since then, but nice money if you can get it!
    Your Dad's days out weren't up to much!

    It's actually a completely different house to the one sold in 2008. It was knocked down and a bigger one rebuilt. Still, as you say, nice work if you can get it.
    Aside from us actually going on holiday somewhere, my dad worked when we were on school holidays. That meant being dragged off to various places some of the time! I don't drag my own kids off with me, but as my dad had to I am am working right through their school holidays.

    I wonder if he felt as guilty about doing so as I do.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
    For LOLs, you can purchase a staggering amount of data about yourself for not very much.

    Interestingly, it is quite hard to do at an individual level. The bulk data is pricey, of course, and one of the conditions of sale is that it isn't made generally available.

    The later comes from a thing a decade (or 2) ago, when a privacy group setup a stall at various party conferences in the UK & US, where they invited people to look themselves up on a full commercial dataset. Even then, the politicians were shocked.....
    Of course currently no one has to carry a mobile phone or use cards to pay for everything or drive a car which makes them only trackable by using human resources. With a digital vaxport you would be coerced into taking a phone with you
    Facial recognition.

    Unless you wear a mask of course.

    Facial recognition is
    a) crap in its current state when used in the wild
    b) requires them to have a reasonably current picture of you
    c) can be defeated fairly easily , for example most camera's are high up. A suitable hat can block them from seeing that much of a face
    d) You don't have to walk where there are large concentrations of camera's now no one needs the high st
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Re: Boris’s Brolley.

    Who cares?

    It’s sad that many of my fellow Boris-haters should try to attack him on this.

    This is Boris. Boris brollies gonna buckle.

    They're just trying to cast some shade on him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    By the time the Schlieffen plan was put in motion perhaps it was too late. But the years leading up to the war involved a remarkable degree of careless gamesmanship on all sides, including the reckless accumulation of alliances, that took far too little account of how horrific and costly a European war was likely to be. There was no excuse for that kind of ignorance either as the US civil war 50 years before had given a clear signal of the slaughter that it would entail.

    To have got into the position we found ourselves in in 1914, and to then have thrown away a generation of young men and left ourselves broken and impoverished in the war's wake, points to a massive failure of statecraft somewhere down the line. And it's not as if it prevented the emergence of an aggressive militarised German state, either: within 15 years Hitler was in power and preparing for the conquest of Europe.

    The whole thing was a fucking disaster and I refuse to believe that there wasn't a better outcome available to us if we'd done things differently in the years 1900-1918.
    The better outcome would have been shooting Kaiser Wilhelm as long as it would have seen power transferred to the Reichstag where the internationally minded SPD were the largest party.

    Because he intended a war in Europe to expand German power sooner or later.

    Sadly, that wasn’t a feasible option. Until they were disbanded in 1945-46 the German Army continued to call the shots (no pun intended) in German diplomacy and they were fully on board with the Kaiser’s aims. As they were later with Hitler’s.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is important to stress that no one in government — from ministers to aides to scientists — has a clear explanation for why cases are currently far lower than projected. Today’s poll may just provide some insight. It shows that tens of millions of Brits were uneasy about Johnson’s decision to open up this month, that a clear majority seems to be complying with ongoing isolation rules, and that huge numbers are exercising significant caution in how they go about their daily lives, limiting whom they meet and taking measures that would help stop the spread. The truth is we still don’t know and there may be other more important factors at play, though it might just be that the natural caution and moderation of the public has at least partly helped to stop cases from spiralling out of control.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-poll-exclusive-ping-for-the-moment-french-farce/

    ONS survey eagerly awaited this morning.

    If the above theory is correct then unfortunately for Pagel and co, it implies that trusting people to judge their own risk works far better than iSAGE would believe.

    Paging Tegnell.
    Yes, it always seemed likely to me that when official restrictions were lifted, people would exercise caution anyway. We don’t need a nanny state ordering us all the time. We don’t have to wear masks anymore, yet most people in shops still do, who in their right mind would go about their business no as if it were July 2019? A few maybe but generally not many. Give the public some credit!
    If its correct that everyone is going to come into contact with covid at some point then its pretty senseless for people who are fully vaccinated to wear a mask. Especially if they are at low risk to begin with.

    While those who think they are at risk would be well advised to wear a proper mask.

    The wearing of the blue flimsy masks, often incorrectly, falls into the pointless gap between the two sensible choices.
    I don’t know about the effectivity of types of mask, personally I wear one most of the time I’m shopping because I don’t want to upset people feeling vulnerable, but they are an obvious indicator of how much people are or are not simply relying on the government to inform their everyday decisions.
    I also wear a mask in shops, but it's not because of anything the government says or because I think they are effective. It's because a) the shop usually has a sign asking people to do so, b) as you say, it makes some vulnerable people feel safer and c) it's no great hardship for me. I imagine that most mask wearers are thinking along similar lines, and it's why Sajid Javid's "cowering" comment was so misplaced. Those of us who continue to wear masks in shops are not "cowering", we are simply being considerate. "Cowering" was an insult.
    I was pondering this morning on my bike ride at all the people wearing masks walking along the road or in the park, or alone in cars, which I would put at around 10-20%.

    For good reasons or otherwise we seem to have done ourselves some severe psychological damage or at least implanted in our psyche something that will take some time to expunge.

    But then again, like face veils, they are not my cup of tea but if people want to continue to wear a face mask as they are cycling on their own through a park why should I give a ****.
    In suburban South Manchester, I would put the number of people wearing masks when not requested to do so - in the park, on the street, on their own in cars at less than 2%.

    Numbers not masking in the shops is creeping up.

    In about 1999, I watched the England football team play someone or other (Poland?) in a pub in Pitlochry. There was quite a crowd, but it was a quiet crowd. Though the crowd got gradually louder as the match went on as it gradually dawned on us that we were pretty much all English.
    I'd say the same thing is happening in shops. People are masking not out of any keenness to mask or belief that it is the right thing to do, but because they see everyone else doing so. But as it becomes gradually ore common to see people not masking, all those masking purely to fit in will start de-masking. By the end of August, I reckon it'll be less than 50% in Tesco in Sale (which I am taking as the benchmark); by the end of Septmeber less than 20%.

    They've already taken down the signs asking you to mask when you come in and the signs restricting you to one family per lift. Though they still have the tannoys repeatedly asking you to wear one.
    There is a Tesco in Sale?! Isn't it peak Waitrose land?
    Not yet, no! Tesco or Sainsburys or Aldi. (Come to thinkk of it, there is an M&S food too.) Sale is middle-class-ish but not fashionable. Nearest Waitrose is in Altrincham (though actually in Broadheath, which is Altrincham's least fashionable suburb).
    Of course, the aspiration is always a Booth's - but I think the nearest Booth's is in Knutsford.
    Sale's an odd mix. To look at, it has amongst the best housing stock in Greater Manchester, but a fairly grotty town centre. When I moved here 12 years ago there was pretty much nothing to entice you out - every pub was a karaoke/disco type, every cafe serving little but a selection of dispirting sandwiches. There was a Cafe Nero, but that was it. Even the fish and chip shops were all closed by 8pm. That's gradually changed over the last 12 years - there's a couple of half-decent pubs, though nothing you'd come from another suburb for, and a few eye-wateringly expensive bars have started opening. We also have a profusion of cafes and coffee shops. It's changing from the sort of place people move to for schools and parks and relative lack of antisocial behaviour to somewhere people move to because they want somewhere trendy but can't afford Chorlton or Altrincham.
    That said, it's getting expensive here too. My next-door-but-one neighbour has just put his house on the market for £815,000. £815,000! I cannot imagine who could afford that. But he has had a lot of interest.
    *has a quick neb*

    Blimey, Dane Road? I remember my dad dragging me to the industrial estate by the then station now Metrolink stop in the school holidays. £815k? Its very nice, but is that really the going rate? I note from Zoopla that the previous sale price was £165k in 2008. I assume its been extended and the garden poshed up since then, but nice money if you can get it!
    Your Dad's days out weren't up to much!

    It's actually a completely different house to the one sold in 2008. It was knocked down and a bigger one rebuilt. Still, as you say, nice work if you can get it.
    Aside from us actually going on holiday somewhere, my dad worked when we were on school holidays. That meant being dragged off to various places some of the time! I don't drag my own kids off with me, but as my dad had to I am am working right through their school holidays.

    I wonder if he felt as guilty about doing so as I do.
    Ha, yes, appreciate that. It was a mild joke. Things were different in those days - kids tagged along in a way they don't now. I used tosometimes tag along with my mum when she was showing people round houses (she worked for an estate agents at one time).
    We have a spreadsheet of where the kids go for every day of the holidays - I'm lucky enough to have the day off today and we're off to Joddrell Bank as soon as I can persuade my youngest to put some pants on. The idea of answering the question 'what are we doing today' with 'Dane Road Industrial Estate' just made me laugh.

    The industrial estate is signposted off the motorway as 'One Stop Resource Centre'. I have lived here for 12 years without working out exactly what that implies.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    Michel Barnier is proposing a moratorium on immigration to France for three to five years.

    https://twitter.com/le_figaro/status/1420625290343092229
    Roger will be incandescent with rage. What's the French for Hartlepool?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    1-1 in the football.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bernie's Tweets
    @BernieSpofforth
    ·
    47m
    Vaccines Passports wont set us free, they will fundamentally shift expectations of what our human rights mean.

    Tracked, monitored & controlled by a Digital ID system masquerading as a tool to keep you safe.

    This is the fight of our lives

    Hold. Your. Line.

    #NoVaccinePassport

    Read this

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/three-word-text-solved-gruesome-murder-even-without-body/

    or

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-07-29/the-painstaking-investigation-of-catching-a-welsh-killer-without-a-body

    The point being, the murderer offed his mate in the ruraler part of rural Wales, and his movements were so comprehensively tracked by cctv and mobile phone he might as well have had a police drone hovering one foot above his head throughout the entire episode. Spofforth is fighting a battle lost decades ago. Vaccine passports will add nothing to the mix.

    Good name though, sounds like something which happens in close up in a pornhub video.
    For LOLs, you can purchase a staggering amount of data about yourself for not very much.

    Interestingly, it is quite hard to do at an individual level. The bulk data is pricey, of course, and one of the conditions of sale is that it isn't made generally available.

    The later comes from a thing a decade (or 2) ago, when a privacy group setup a stall at various party conferences in the UK & US, where they invited people to look themselves up on a full commercial dataset. Even then, the politicians were shocked.....
    Mate of mine at Cambridge Analytica made exactly the same point to me. Things like birthdays, friends, places you've been - all super difficult to get to, even with FB/Insta.

    Things like complete financial history, transactions, credit status - all readily available in an instant to buy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    You know Roger, you are a Europhile and that is your privilege but to say Brexit is the Country's biggest folly and greatest shame is utter nonsense
    Having Liked Roger's post, I think you might have a point about greatest shame. Think that might be participating in the Iraq War. Or, second thoughts, the treatment of the Windrush Generation.
    The treatment of the Windrush generation and the Iraq war were government action. Whereas Brexit was simple prejudice. 52% of the population lined up behind Farage. I can't think of a bigger national disgrace
    Maybe if those who support the EU had made a better case they would not have descended into a never ending moan about 17, 410,742 voting to exit the EU, and bitterly name calling

    I voted remain and accept the vote of the UK, it is called democracy and it is significant that not one of the Conservative, Labour, or Liberal Democrats are willing to stand in 2024 to rejoin
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    By the time the Schlieffen plan was put in motion perhaps it was too late. But the years leading up to the war involved a remarkable degree of careless gamesmanship on all sides, including the reckless accumulation of alliances, that took far too little account of how horrific and costly a European war was likely to be. There was no excuse for that kind of ignorance either as the US civil war 50 years before had given a clear signal of the slaughter that it would entail.

    To have got into the position we found ourselves in in 1914, and to then have thrown away a generation of young men and left ourselves broken and impoverished in the war's wake, points to a massive failure of statecraft somewhere down the line. And it's not as if it prevented the emergence of an aggressive militarised German state, either: within 15 years Hitler was in power and preparing for the conquest of Europe.

    The whole thing was a fucking disaster and I refuse to believe that there wasn't a better outcome available to us if we'd done things differently in the years 1900-1918.
    There was a TV programme about Victoria's grandchildren a few weeks ago which suggested that Kaiser Bill blamed a lot of his physical problems on the British and while he was fond of his grandmother Queen Victoria the death of his Uncle Edward robbed him of much/any family loyalty to his mother's family.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,617
    felix said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    Michel Barnier is proposing a moratorium on immigration to France for three to five years.

    https://twitter.com/le_figaro/status/1420625290343092229
    Roger will be incandescent with rage. What's the French for Hartlepool?
    The major problem with France, is the French, of course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    NEW THREAD
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,246
    THIS is what Boris should be saying


    ‘Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has sent out a firm warning to unvaccinated Filipinos that they will be confined to their homes by the authorities, adding that "for all I care, you can die anytime".’

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/07/30/for-all-i-care-you-can-die-anytime-philippine-presidents-message-to-the-unvaccinated/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    This thread has been shut down like funding of posho sports for the Olympics.....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited July 2021
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    There was a landlady from Cumbria talking about the pingdemic on Classic fm news yesterday, I wondered if she was your daughter
    No. She is far too busy to do interviews. She has not suffered (yet) from pinging but is suffering from staff shortages. And even though I will help as much as I can I am not experienced and, contrary to what many think, working effectively in a busy pub/restaurant is not as easy as it can seem tho those who think any fool can carry plates to a table.

    It is a real worry.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    The property thing is not a surprise.

    I currently have one in an interminable wait for a non-paying tenant to leave as the process is taking 6-12 months, and three which can't have new tenants because two are in an estate where I won't be able to wait a year for someone to leave, and one is on the market.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    This is one for @TheScreamingEagles but shows the current issues in China

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/too-big-to-fail-debt-crisis-at-property-giant-china-evergrande-tests-xi-jinping

    China's Evergrande was 3 years ago the biggest property company on earth with Hui worth $42bn and it's all gone to pot.

    Now that's of interest but of real interest is that Tether has a lot of Chinese commercial paper which gets really interesting when you think about the connection of Evergrande, Tether and Bitcoin.

    https://boards.4channel.org/biz/thread/39294125 (don't click from work as it's 4chan) has an interesting read. If you have any cryptocurrency it's probably time to get out.

    The whole crypto thing does look like it’s about to go bust. Once selling momentum starts, it will very quickly turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    Thanks for this. It's all true. Comments and questions:

    1) While inflexibility of labour must be an issue, the general principle that inability to recruit is related to pay/career opportunities/business viability just is true and can't be overlooked in any activity anywhere

    2) As to recruitment from EU - presumably no longer possible - there are literally millions of former EU residents in this country, who must form a massive, relatively young pool of workers, so the problem can't only be Brexit, even if it is an issue

    3) The rent market in much of tourism areas is inevitably dominated by holiday lets and second homes. The pressure to not build in much of Cumbria is linked with its tourism attractions. Nothing to rent on Great Gable. Social housing and employer provided accommodation are the only answers.

    4) There are over 8,000 unemployed people in Cumbria

    5) If all employers in the area have the same problem there is a structural problem, not just a little local difficulty. Has Cyclefree identified what it is?

    6) Markets are not magic, firstly because they aren't, and secondly because of market interference - ever tried buiding cheap affordable accommodation for temporary workers within the Lake District National Park.

    What does Cyclefree want someone to do?



  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    felix said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    Michel Barnier is proposing a moratorium on immigration to France for three to five years.

    https://twitter.com/le_figaro/status/1420625290343092229
    Roger will be incandescent with rage. What's the French for Hartlepool?
    Trou de merde.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    edited July 2021
    algarkirk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would post something about how here in an area where tourism and hospitality are key sectors -
    - every single pub/restaurant and other hospitality venue for miles around is recruiting - without success - even for experienced staff at high wages with pensions and training. Many would in the past recruit EU citizens for the high season but that is now forbidden.
    - There is little property available for rent for anyone wanting to move here to work from other parts of the UK
    - businesses have been told by their wholesale suppliers to expect that some of their orders for food and beer will not be met because of shortages and delivery constraints
    - some businesses have had to close on certain days or scale back their offering because they simply cannot provide services due to lack of staff. For the hard of understanding, this has a knock on effect on revenues and tax take.

    So those businesses which have just about survived Covid face another year or more of real constraints at the time when they badly need to be doing business at full capacity to try and recover some of the lost earnings since March 2020.

    I would post this but what's the point? All sorts of people will say that this is wrong, isn't happening or doesn't matter and that the Market will magically provide - just like that. Yeah: of course. Just like the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    Thanks for this. It's all true. Comments and questions:

    1) While inflexibility of labour must be an issue, the general principle that inability to recruit is related to pay/career opportunities/business viability just is true and can't be overlooked in any activity anywhere

    2) As to recruitment from EU - presumably no longer possible - there are literally millions of former EU residents in this country, who must form a massive, relatively young pool of workers, so the problem can't only be Brexit, even if it is an issue

    3) The rent market in much of tourism areas is inevitably dominated by holiday lets and second homes. The pressure to not build in much of Cumbria is linked with its tourism attractions. Nothing to rent on Great Gable. Social housing and employer provided accommodation are the only answers.

    4) There are over 8,000 unemployed people in Cumbria

    5) If all employers in the area have the same problem there is a structural problem, not just a little local difficulty. Has Cyclefree identified what it is?

    6) Markets are not magic, firstly because they aren't, and secondly because of market interference - ever tried buiding cheap affordable accommodation for temporary workers within the Lake District National Park.

    What does Cyclefree want someone to do?

    On point 2 I gather that quite a lot of the 'former EU residents' are in fact spouses of Brits, who have been here for many years and never bothered/needed to bother about changing their passports.
    Quite a few National Servicemen, for example, met and married German girls. We had troops there for many, many years after WWII finished.
    And these people are retired, rather than young.

    On point 5, are not parts of Cumbria attractive for retirement? Not all retirees are of state pension age and some may have 'signed on' as a means of increasing their income while waiting to get to whatever the age is now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    .
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    isam said:

    A subject close to my heart - my girlfriend says the midwives and nurses have not been at all pushy about this, & even seem to be saying don’t bother, reading between the lines.

    “ Public Health England data suggests about 51,724 pregnant women have received one Covid vaccine in England so far. Of these, around 20,648 have had their second dose.
    This is out of approximately 606,500 pregnant women in England in 2020-21, based on estimates from GP records.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58014779

    My wife was incorrectly advised by the person doing vaccinations (in May, contrary to the official guidance) not to have a first jab if she could be pregnant - it was very unlikely that she would have been pregnant at the time and she went ahead. For second jab, there was a possibility of being pregnant, but having reviewed the guidance and the evidence (I'm a epidemiologist, so that's kind of my day job) we went ahead with that too. She wasn't pregnant, as it turns out.

    The evidence is limited - a bit like the debate over children there's no evidence of vaccine harm and no likely mechanism for it, but not much strong evidence of Covid harm either. The most robust finding so far seems to be increased risk of pre-term delivery for mothers who have had Covid (and possibly low birth weight, but that could just be due to increased risk of pre-term) and possibly increased risks to pregnant women infected with Covid compared to general population. Infections have long been linked with pre-term birth, so not a surprise if the evidence supports that.

    Midwives are often quite anti-intervention and pro letting nature take its course. That was partly a (justified) reaction against the increased medicalisation of childbirth over a few decades, but the Royal College changed guidance a bit after some cases of pursuing a 'natural' birth ending badly. Our midwife for second birth strongly pushed for a home birth. We declined, being even with blue lights up to 45 minutes from hospital - we'd have been open to it if much closer - probably just as well as we would, if at home, have ended up doing that journey in a rush.

    We'd have gone ahead with vaccination, even had my wife been pregnant, but it's not a black and white call. Our next door neighbour is delaying hers and I respect that decision (and hope she avoids infection until vaccinated after giving birth so she doesn't get to test out whether it was a good call).
    Yes, my girlfriend is delaying hers until after the baby is born. There’s no long term evidence of what it does to unborn babies yet, same as born adults I know, but at least we have all our limbs etc. The long shadow of thalidomide I think
    There's some evidence of adverse outcomes in pregnancy from Covid - for example:
    http://jogh.org/documents/2021/jogh-11-05018.pdf
    https://www.ajog.org/article/S0002-9378(21)00795-X/pdf

    Conversely, what evidence we have suggests no harm from vaccination:

    https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(21)01133-7/pdf
    Since the EUA for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, over 128,306 pregnant patients have received the vaccine and registered with the CDC V-safe program. Recent data from the CDC V- safe program found side effects from the vaccine were similar between pregnant and nonpregnant women. Additionally, when evaluating 827 completed pregnancies, there was no increased risk in adverse pregnancy outcomes including miscarriage, preterm birth, small for gestational age, and neonatal death when compared to data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic…

    I can quite understand the hesitancy in this case, even if I might choose otherwise, as there's considerably less data than for the general population.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Dura_Ace said:

    felix said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    Michel Barnier is proposing a moratorium on immigration to France for three to five years.

    https://twitter.com/le_figaro/status/1420625290343092229
    Roger will be incandescent with rage. What's the French for Hartlepool?
    Trou de merde.
    Wouldn't that be Fartlepool ?
This discussion has been closed.