Yes, that's it, thanks. With three successive polls, it looks a pretty clear shift.
In reply to Omnium on the previous thread - I like Corbyn because I'm basically left-wing and I really appreciate his quiet and unconfrontational personal style (for comparison, I sympathised with Scargill but detested him personally); I've known him on and off for 50 years. But I would like a government that's as electably left of centre as possible, since there are so many positive centre-left things that we can agree on before we start worrying about the more radical stuff like wealth taxes which need a further Overton Window shift. That's why I was happy to support Blair and Brown, and why I'm pleased if Starmer does well.
It's not especially unusual among Labour members. They'll say "I wish Starmer was more radical but at any rate I hope he wins". There is an obvious question whether you have to be centrist to win (I think it's not quite that simple - rather, you have to avoid repelling people by being aggressive), but anyway it's possible to disagree with the strategy but be pleased if it works.
Which is rather like the pandemic, come to think of it. I think the Government has taken a risk, but with luck it will work out.
On JD Vance's proposal, I would suspect that very effective negative advertising campaign would be to highlight the fact that Muslims have more children.
Senator Vance thinks that Christians should only get one vote, while Muslims should get three...
The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
Let's remember the Prime Minister's original "call" was June 21st - he was forced to defer for a month so he can hardly claim credit for that.
I'm happy to agree the "pingdemic" has been a grotesque self-inflicted own goal - I was in my local Tesco's today and supplies of milk and bottled water were almost exhausted.
Perhaps the Prime Minister should ask that nice Mr Rashford to lead the campaign to encourage vaccine take up among the 18-24 age group.
I don't support vaccination passports - if everyone on here (we seem replete with immunologists, epidemiologists, statisticians and data analysts) seems to think the case numbers have peaked and are falling, the argument for "vaxports" will fall away with them - until of course the schools go back in September of course.
We had a big fall in cases last August - down to <1000 a day - and we did nothing to prevent the second wave. The Government stood back, let everyone go to the beach and by September it was panic stations.
We cannot waste the opportunity of the next 4-6 weeks like we did last year. We need a coherent plan for booster vaccinations and for the return of children to school in September.
On JD Vance's proposal, I would suspect that very effective negative advertising campaign would be to highlight the fact that Muslims have more children.
Senator Vance thinks that Christians should only get one vote, while Muslims should get three...
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Except its not certain. The herd immunity effect was already there, the fact is 90% of adults had antibodies already. There is no reason to have a plateau if the virus was as I thought just filling in the gaps where there were pools of transmissability due to low vaccine takeup in certain areas or demographics.
Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.
I think it is near-certain. The virus spread rate and the antibody levels are not uniformly distributed. If you've got (say) 100 locations, the virus will run out of potential hosts initially in just a few of them, the others will keep on ramping up. So you'd expect a fairly gradual hump, not a sharp peak - and this is a very sharp fall-off from the peak.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Except its not certain. The herd immunity effect was already there, the fact is 90% of adults had antibodies already. There is no reason to have a plateau if the virus was as I thought just filling in the gaps where there were pools of transmissability due to low vaccine takeup in certain areas or demographics.
Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.
I tend to agree that this wave, and the continued progress in vaccinations, really means the virus has nowhere to go. I think we will need to add booster shots, particularly to the vulnerable, in the Autumn, but by the time schools go back, we'll be at that 90% of adults double jabbed level.
On JD Vance's proposal, I would suspect that very effective negative advertising campaign would be to highlight the fact that Muslims have more children.
Senator Vance thinks that Christians should only get one vote, while Muslims should get three...
The poor polling for the Tories on the previous thread...
I can't imagine "FREEEEEEEDOMMMMM DAY" is doing the Tories much good in the polls given the pingdemic. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.
I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.
To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.
I think also the media message of "CRAZED IDIOT BORIS WILL KILL US ALLLLLLLLL!" is probably not to the Conservatives advantage.
The test of that theory, will be the response, if the fall in cases continues.....
The fiasco over France won’t have helped, affecting everyone using Eurotunnel or Eurostar or most of the ferries, even if France isn’t the final destination.
Those following the news know that:
- half the government thinks the decision was a mistake, including the minister who wasn’t there at the time. If even Shapps has twigged that something is wrong, it must be bad;
- it’s widely expected to be abandoned next week, anyway
- meanwhile the government hangs onto the policy, just to save face, wrecking a lot of family plans including those of people who will inevitably decide to abandon their holidays just days before the government abandons the policy. Which will anger them still further
The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
Let's remember the Prime Minister's original "call" was June 21st - he was forced to defer for a month so he can hardly claim credit for that.
I'm happy to agree the "pingdemic" has been a grotesque self-inflicted own goal - I was in my local Tesco's today and supplies of milk and bottled water were almost exhausted.
Perhaps the Prime Minister should ask that nice Mr Rashford to lead the campaign to encourage vaccine take up among the 18-24 age group.
I don't support vaccination passports - if everyone on here (we seem replete with immunologists, epidemiologists, statisticians and data analysts) seems to think the case numbers have peaked and are falling, the argument for "vaxports" will fall away with them - until of course the schools go back in September of course.
We had a big fall in cases last August - down to less than 1000 a day - and we did nothing to prevent the second wave. The Government stood back, let everyone go to the beach and by September it was panic stations.
We cannot waste the opportunity of the next 4-6 weeks like we did last year. We need a coherent plan for booster vaccinations and for the return of children to school in September.
Boris wasn't "forced" to defer for a month, he chose to do so. I objected to him for doing so as did some of his backbenchers like Baker and many others on this site.
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
Conservative 40% (-2) Labour 36% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 July
Redfield and Wilton
4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
Reform's advance is only thing that ensures no more lockdowns and no vaccine passports.
Right: so it's not the fact that (a) Boris Johnson is not some evil power crazed loony, (b) lockdowns are economically ruinous or (c) lockdowns are really unpopular
It's the fact that Reform *might* be up to 4% in the polls.
The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
Let's remember the Prime Minister's original "call" was June 21st - he was forced to defer for a month so he can hardly claim credit for that.
I'm happy to agree the "pingdemic" has been a grotesque self-inflicted own goal - I was in my local Tesco's today and supplies of milk and bottled water were almost exhausted.
Perhaps the Prime Minister should ask that nice Mr Rashford to lead the campaign to encourage vaccine take up among the 18-24 age group.
I don't support vaccination passports - if everyone on here (we seem replete with immunologists, epidemiologists, statisticians and data analysts) seems to think the case numbers have peaked and are falling, the argument for "vaxports" will fall away with them - until of course the schools go back in September of course.
We had a big fall in cases last August - down to less than 1000 a day - and we did nothing to prevent the second wave. The Government stood back, let everyone go to the beach and by September it was panic stations.
We cannot waste the opportunity of the next 4-6 weeks like we did last year. We need a coherent plan for booster vaccinations and for the return of children to school in September.
Boris wasn't "forced" to defer for a month, he chose to do so. I objected to him for doing so as did some of his backbenchers like Baker and many others on this site.
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
I would reserve the fast lane on motorways for the fully vaccinated.
Yea it does seem ridiculous to complain that the Govt was following “dates not data” when the evidence thus far seems to be suggesting that they they actually ditched the June 21st date and found the absolute sweet spot for the data...
Yes, that's it, thanks. With three successive polls, it looks a pretty clear shift.
In reply to Omnium on the previous thread - I like Corbyn because I'm basically left-wing and I really appreciate his quiet and unconfrontational personal style (for comparison, I sympathised with Scargill but detested him personally); I've known him on and off for 50 years. But I would like a government that's as electably left of centre as possible, since there are so many positive centre-left things that we can agree on before we start worrying about the more radical stuff like wealth taxes which need a further Overton Window shift. That's why I was happy to support Blair and Brown, and why I'm pleased if Starmer does well.
It's not especially unusual among Labour members. They'll say "I wish Starmer was more radical but at any rate I hope he wins". There is an obvious question whether you have to be centrist to win (I think it's not quite that simple - rather, you have to avoid repelling people by being aggressive), but anyway it's possible to disagree with the strategy but be pleased if it works.
Which is rather like the pandemic, come to think of it. I think the Government has taken a risk, but with luck it will work out.
Thanks for explaining. It's a bit nuts though. Why do you want to be as left as you can be?
From the Guardian: Dr Samantha Batt-Rawden, a senior intensive care registrar, said… it was difficult to witness the look of regret on patient’s faces when they became very unwell and needed to go on a ventilator. “You can see it dawn on them that they potentially made the biggest mistake of their lives [in not getting the vaccine], which is really hard,” she said, adding that she had overheard people telling family members about their remorse.
The patients who pull through are for ever changed – their Covid scepticism disappears once they have experienced time in intensive care, Batt-Rawden said.
Glenn Barratt passed away in the Diana, Princess of Wales hospital in Grimsby after fighting coronavirus for weeks. The 51-year-old, from Cleethorpes, had opted not to have the vaccine. But his final words to bedside nurses and doctors were: “I wish I had.”
Conservative 40% (-2) Labour 36% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 July
Redfield and Wilton
4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
Reform's advance is only thing that ensures no more lockdowns and no vaccine passports.
Right: so it's not the fact that (a) Boris Johnson is not some evil power crazed loony, (b) lockdowns are economically ruinous or (c) lockdowns are really unpopular
It's the fact that Reform *might* be up to 4% in the polls.
Yea it does seem ridiculous to complain that the Govt was following “dates not data” when the evidence thus far seems to be suggesting that they they actually ditched the June 21st date and found the absolute sweet spot for the data...
Yep the government said ‘not before‘, and the country heard ‘on’. They even had the sense to give notice of changes. And yet still people moan. Thankless task.
Yea it does seem ridiculous to complain that the Govt was following “dates not data” when the evidence thus far seems to be suggesting that they they actually ditched the June 21st date and found the absolute sweet spot for the data...
Yes, with my fingers crossed it seems that either the government knew exactly what it was doing or it got very lucky. Either way I'll take it, and I am thankful to all the people who made and informed the decision.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
Yes, that's it, thanks. With three successive polls, it looks a pretty clear shift.
In reply to Omnium on the previous thread - I like Corbyn because I'm basically left-wing and I really appreciate his quiet and unconfrontational personal style (for comparison, I sympathised with Scargill but detested him personally); I've known him on and off for 50 years. But I would like a government that's as electably left of centre as possible, since there are so many positive centre-left things that we can agree on before we start worrying about the more radical stuff like wealth taxes which need a further Overton Window shift. That's why I was happy to support Blair and Brown, and why I'm pleased if Starmer does well.
It's not especially unusual among Labour members. They'll say "I wish Starmer was more radical but at any rate I hope he wins". There is an obvious question whether you have to be centrist to win (I think it's not quite that simple - rather, you have to avoid repelling people by being aggressive), but anyway it's possible to disagree with the strategy but be pleased if it works.
Which is rather like the pandemic, come to think of it. I think the Government has taken a risk, but with luck it will work out.
Thanks for explaining. It's a bit nuts though. Why do you want to be as left as you can be?
What on earth is it that aligns you to the left?
I’d guess it’s a combination of two things.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
I’m no expert but wonder if this is what a very transmissible variant hitting a high vaccination wall looks like? Real world, not modelled.
It looks (so scientific) that it burns very fast, but if there isn't much fuel it burns out quick. Of course that also implies that if you have a lot of fuel you are in big trouble.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
Yes, that's it, thanks. With three successive polls, it looks a pretty clear shift.
In reply to Omnium on the previous thread - I like Corbyn because I'm basically left-wing and I really appreciate his quiet and unconfrontational personal style (for comparison, I sympathised with Scargill but detested him personally); I've known him on and off for 50 years. But I would like a government that's as electably left of centre as possible, since there are so many positive centre-left things that we can agree on before we start worrying about the more radical stuff like wealth taxes which need a further Overton Window shift. That's why I was happy to support Blair and Brown, and why I'm pleased if Starmer does well.
It's not especially unusual among Labour members. They'll say "I wish Starmer was more radical but at any rate I hope he wins". There is an obvious question whether you have to be centrist to win (I think it's not quite that simple - rather, you have to avoid repelling people by being aggressive), but anyway it's possible to disagree with the strategy but be pleased if it works.
Which is rather like the pandemic, come to think of it. I think the Government has taken a risk, but with luck it will work out.
Thanks for explaining. It's a bit nuts though. Why do you want to be as left as you can be?
What on earth is it that aligns you to the left?
I’d guess it’s a combination of two things.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is.
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
Yea it does seem ridiculous to complain that the Govt was following “dates not data” when the evidence thus far seems to be suggesting that they they actually ditched the June 21st date and found the absolute sweet spot for the data...
Yes, with my fingers crossed it seems that either the government knew exactly what it was doing or it got very lucky. Either way I'll take it, and I am thankful to all the people who made and informed the decision.
TBH it looks OK on France, too.
Their R is now at 1.8. I wonder what the shape of their Third Wave will be. Wide and quite high, as it is a large country but with some very dense cosmopolitans parts?
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
I’m no expert but wonder if this is what a very transmissible variant hitting a high vaccination wall looks like? Real world, not modelled.
It's definitely a possibility. Malta and the UK are both highly vaccinated, the Netherlands isn't exactly far behind either after a poor start. It might be that the virus is running out of viable hosts who can catch it to a severe enough degree to transmit it. Even at the beginning of this we've known that 40% of people get it asymptomatically and those people don't transmit it as much as symptomatic people.
On JD Vance's proposal, I would suspect that very effective negative advertising campaign would be to highlight the fact that Muslims have more children.
Senator Vance thinks that Christians should only get one vote, while Muslims should get three...
Did he express an opinion on, erm, philoprogenitiveness outside marriage? Or, for that matter, on polygamous Mormons?
Boris wasn't "forced" to defer for a month, he chose to do so. I objected to him for doing so as did some of his backbenchers like Baker and many others on this site.
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
As you've done me the courtesy of a civilised response, I shall try to reciprocate.
There will be those who recall comments about "dates not data" but it doesn't much matter. The likelihood of cases declining once the schools emptied was always there and perhaps, on that basis, we can't be surprised at the fall in case numbers which will accelerate sharply into August much as it did last year.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
What about planning for booster shots?
What do we know or what can science tell us about the continued efficacy of antibodies whether obtained via vaccination or infection? This is the kind of information which should be out there and forming the public policy discussion - do we need a booster this autumn? Who needs it and when? What of those who acquired immunity via infection? That won't last forever so they will become susceptible once again.
We squandered an opportunity last year to accurately plan for a likely second wave and it turned into an embarrassing fiasco last autumn and winter.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
Looks like the simplest explanation, and it matches what we've seen throughout the pandemic, plus our knowledge of both germs and children.
That means we now have six weeks to get immunity sorted before schools go back. It's that simple.
On the subject of the polls, the striking thing is that the drift has been going on for a while now- since late May? Recent events certainly haven't helped, but there's a rot setting in.
Or linked to the size of the National Debt when you first got the vote, so if you vote to borrow, borrow, borrow from the magic money tree, your voting power is diluted.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
Looks like the simplest explanation, and it matches what we've seen throughout the pandemic, plus our knowledge of both germs and children.
That means we now have six weeks to get immunity sorted before schools go back. It's that simple.
On the subject of the polls, the striking thing is that the drift has been going on for a while now- since late May? Recent events certainly haven't helped, but there's a rot setting in.
Shorter than that in Scotland - the schools go back on 16 August.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
The problem with 1997 is that being "timid" as you put it was what got Blair elected.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
Well we’ll find out soon enough from hospital data. Deaths already look like they might have reached something of a weekly plateau (paradoxically)
Boris wasn't "forced" to defer for a month, he chose to do so. I objected to him for doing so as did some of his backbenchers like Baker and many others on this site.
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
As you've done me the courtesy of a civilised response, I shall try to reciprocate.
There will be those who recall comments about "dates not data" but it doesn't much matter. The likelihood of cases declining once the schools emptied was always there and perhaps, on that basis, we can't be surprised at the fall in case numbers which will accelerate sharply into August much as it did last year.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
What about planning for booster shots?
What do we know or what can science tell us about the continued efficacy of antibodies whether obtained via vaccination or infection? This is the kind of information which should be out there and forming the public policy discussion - do we need a booster this autumn? Who needs it and when? What of those who acquired immunity via infection? That won't last forever so they will become susceptible once again.
We squandered an opportunity last year to accurately plan for a likely second wave and it turned into an embarrassing fiasco last autumn and winter.
We must do better this year.
Maybe, maybe not. Bit of a difference as we approach September this year...
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
Well we’ll find out soon enough from hospital data. Deaths already look like they might have reached something of a weekly plateau (paradoxically)
Hospitalisations and cases have already decoupled to a great extent. Although I agree if hospitalisations drop dramatically too that would refute my suggestion.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
Just wait for the economic mess to be discovered, then the Tories are really going to tank.
Yes, but then the only option is vote Tory. If we're broke we can't afford Labour. (Any idea anyway of their (Labours') role is some wild delusional thing)
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
Except that testing hasn't dipped.....
Has a little bit but not enough to explain the recent drops alone.
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
The real world is complex, so looking for one reason will fail. Complexity. Schools, including the number of kids off in the last week, no footy, good weather, high level of vaccination will all play a part.
There is, of course, another possible factor.
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
Except that testing hasn't dipped.....
Has a little bit but not enough to explain the recent drops alone.
Conservative 40% (-2) Labour 36% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 July
Redfield and Wilton
4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
Reform's advance is only thing that ensures no more lockdowns and no vaccine passports.
Right: so it's not the fact that (a) Boris Johnson is not some evil power crazed loony, (b) lockdowns are economically ruinous or (c) lockdowns are really unpopular
It's the fact that Reform *might* be up to 4% in the polls.
Yes.
And when Reform disappears back to (close to) zero, will that mean his power crazed urges come to the fore again, and he proposes new and sweeping lockdowns.
(As an aside, I am in awe of your ability to rewrite reality to match your prognostications. That's a real skill.)
Boris wasn't "forced" to defer for a month, he chose to do so. I objected to him for doing so as did some of his backbenchers like Baker and many others on this site.
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
As you've done me the courtesy of a civilised response, I shall try to reciprocate.
There will be those who recall comments about "dates not data" but it doesn't much matter. The likelihood of cases declining once the schools emptied was always there and perhaps, on that basis, we can't be surprised at the fall in case numbers which will accelerate sharply into August much as it did last year.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
What about planning for booster shots?
What do we know or what can science tell us about the continued efficacy of antibodies whether obtained via vaccination or infection? This is the kind of information which should be out there and forming the public policy discussion - do we need a booster this autumn? Who needs it and when? What of those who acquired immunity via infection? That won't last forever so they will become susceptible once again.
We squandered an opportunity last year to accurately plan for a likely second wave and it turned into an embarrassing fiasco last autumn and winter.
We must do better this year.
You're right that we need to encourage the younger people to get vaccinated, but how exactly do you propose to do that considering the vaccine is already available to everyone?
Vaxports are one pragmatic solution to get the younger people nudged into being vaccinated - but you're against that. So what else do you propose?
Planning for booster shots is already going ahead. There will be a booster campaign ran alongside the flu campaign this autumn.
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
I believe you'd expect an unmitigated wave to look like that even in an unvaccinated population. The difference is that the peak would be much higher. We previously flattened the curve by slowing down the spread.
Conservative 40% (-2) Labour 36% (+3) Liberal Democrat 9% (-1) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 July
Redfield and Wilton
4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
Reform's advance is only thing that ensures no more lockdowns and no vaccine passports.
Right: so it's not the fact that (a) Boris Johnson is not some evil power crazed loony, (b) lockdowns are economically ruinous or (c) lockdowns are really unpopular
It's the fact that Reform *might* be up to 4% in the polls.
Yes.
And when Reform disappears back to (close to) zero, will that mean his power crazed urges come to the fore again, and he proposes new and sweeping lockdowns.
(As an aside, I am in awe of your ability to rewrite reality to match your prognostications. That's a real skill.)
It used to be a difficult skill and a rare trait (if very self destructive). Social media makes it a piece of piss to find others who agree with, justify and re-enforce warped realities. They can then dismiss the rest of us as ignorant lemmings. It is still very self destructive but it will be increasingly common to choose your own reality.
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
I believe you'd expect an unmitigated wave to look like that even in an unvaccinated population. The difference is that the peak would be much higher. We previously flattened the curve by slowing down the spread.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
The problem with 1997 is that being "timid" as you put it was what got Blair elected.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
The problem with 1997 is that being "timid" as you put it was what got Blair elected.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
Fine, but with hindsight we can see that having won by being timid he should have launched into government by being bold.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
But what do you propose the govt should be doing that they're not doing?
They've sent the blue envelope to all over 18s. They've set up walk-in centres so people can get jabbed without an appointment if they want.
They've even changed the requirement for NHS numbers - if you are an illegal without an NHS number you can turn up to a walk-in centre and get jabbed now.
They've tried to threaten people with vaccine passports.
Not sure what else there is left to do without using force.
There is also the problem that 18-24 year olds are particularly anti-Tory/Remainery and they probably take pleasure in not getting vaxxed just to see Boris miss his targets. Especially as they believe covid is not much of a threat to them. The only way to get them immune is for them to get infected and acquire natural immunity. Which they probably will before Sept.
I was in a cafe in a park in Chichester today and some ghastly woman on the table adjacent to me was talking to her friend, both late 40s , kids in tow, and I heard her say how delighted this awful nonsense was over and how much she enjoyed seeing people literally shy away from her because she was not wearing a mask.
I didn't respond because she didn't deserve the conversation that she was obviously itching for. What would others have done in the circumstances?
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Except its not certain. The herd immunity effect was already there, the fact is 90% of adults had antibodies already. There is no reason to have a plateau if the virus was as I thought just filling in the gaps where there were pools of transmissability due to low vaccine takeup in certain areas or demographics.
Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.
I think it is near-certain. The virus spread rate and the antibody levels are not uniformly distributed. If you've got (say) 100 locations, the virus will run out of potential hosts initially in just a few of them, the others will keep on ramping up. So you'd expect a fairly gradual hump, not a sharp peak - and this is a very sharp fall-off from the peak.
I'm sorry but in my opinion that completely misreads the situation. You don't need a gradual hump because we've actually had a gradual hump - the quite limited rise in cases we've had has been as restrictions were lifted. Had they been under past levels of restrictions, without the vaccines, and with Delta then the virus would have spread much faster. Instead its already been limited at how it could spread and when less than 10% of all adults lacked antibodies there's a very limited room for it to spread.
Exponential growth doesn't work in a limited population set and by having 90% of the population being somewhat immune to the virus we've seriously restricted the viruses ability to spread.
The remaining 10% can realistically only be infected once typically. So if someone was exposed and infected last month then who are they going to infect now if they were the unvaccinated person in that social circle?
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
Well, he’s doing a lot of fucking, certainly. Not sure about the genius bit.
@Pagan2 - I didn't get a chance to do this yesterday, but I just wanted to note that you are completely correct that state schools in the UK do not require that kids have proof of vaccination.
Article is blocked for euro readers but basically Godbye free and fair elections in the USA.
Given how willing they have been to make changes after the election I am somewhat surprised the Secretary of State and others in Georgia didn't kowtow to Trump at the election previously. I guess that was the line, trying to fiddle during the election.
This seems totally sound.
While legislators could start the takeover process, the decision about whether to do so rests with the State Election Board, made up of three Republicans and one Democrat. The General Assembly removed Raffensperger from the board after he certified last year’s election, refused Trump’s call to “find” more votes and debunked allegations of fraud
Though in fairness the piece does state
Fulton has a record of election difficulties, including a history of long lines, slow results and administrative errors
More votes for people with brain cells, that's what I say!
Dude - you are very down on yourself, and you shouldn't be. You're a valued contributor to this site, even when you are wildly wrong, and you have as much of a right to vote as anyone else.
@Pagan2 - I didn't get a chance to do this yesterday, but I just wanted to note that you are completely correct that state schools in the UK do not require that kids have proof of vaccination.
Didn't think they did but could have been introduced since my son was at school in the 90's and 0's. Nice of you to correct your statement though. Hats off
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Indeed - another good point. I can't explain it. I think schools must be part of explanation-> because Scottish cases started falling earlier, and their schools also closed earlier?
Um, would it be impolite to point out that Scottish interest in the Euros also a few finished earlier than England's?
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
It's still a bit weird as the peak occurred faster in England than it did in Scotland.
The whole reason I selected my peak figure and day guess was modelling it on the lag from Scottish schools closing to peak day in Scotland.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
Or maybe it’s just the good old British state bumbling through as usual and somehow coming up trumps at the end.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
Well, he’s doing a lot of fucking, certainly. Not sure about the genius bit.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
English hospital admissions look to have peaked now.
It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
I’m expecting two more days of higher hospitalisation figures. Partly from looking at 2% of the cases-by-specimen date averaged figure from a week earlier, and partly from the rate of increase in numbers in hospital up to this morning.
Economic growth numbers for Q3 could are going to be absolutely enormous across the developed world. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% annualised growth numbers. (Bear in mind, the US reports annualised numbers, and the UK and Europe report quarterly, so the Americans always look to be doing 4x better.)
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
It's still a bit weird as the peak occurred faster in England than it did in Scotland.
The whole reason I selected my peak figure and day guess was modelling it on the lag from Scottish schools closing to peak day in Scotland.
The end of the football will have been a factor too.
The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
English hospital admissions look to have peaked now.
It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
I’m expecting two more days of higher hospitalisation figures. Partly from looking at 2% of the cases-by-specimen date averaged figure from a week earlier, and partly from the rate of increase in numbers in hospital up to this morning.
The admission numbers are usually final, once they arrive....
I don't think it's that weird: it's a highly transmissible variant hitting countries with relatively high levels of vaccination. It means that it races through unvaccinated communities (particularly dense urban ones), but when it hits lower density groups with more vaccine protection, then it finds it very difficult to gain a foothold.
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
It's still a bit weird as the peak occurred faster in England than it did in Scotland.
The whole reason I selected my peak figure and day guess was modelling it on the lag from Scottish schools closing to peak day in Scotland.
Football. Loads of indoor socialising, shouting, screaming and singing inside pubs on Saturday night, Wednesday night and Sunday night. Scotland only really had one major match against England. England had 3 knock out matches and a final.
Economic growth numbers for Q3 could are going to be absolutely enormous across the developed world. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% annualised growth numbers. (Bear in mind, the US reports annualised numbers, and the UK and Europe report quarterly, so the Americans always look to be doing 4x better.)
How do you see that going if some places have a Delta wave into the autumn term? Based on the length of ours, and a some places not yet ramping up that is possible?
I thought UK reported monthly in one form, which is why we get media bashed every month .
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
The problem with 1997 is that being "timid" as you put it was what got Blair elected.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
The problem with 1997 is that being "timid" as you put it was what got Blair elected.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
Fine, but with hindsight we can see that having won by being timid he should have launched into government by being bold.
Having won multiple Olympic golds by swimming, Adam Peaty’s next challenge is to learn to walk on water.
The time for Blair to be bold wasn’t 1997 - it was 2001, when he had been in government four years and the skies hadn’t fallen in. But even then, care was needed - look at May when she tried to be bold against a far weaker opposition than the one led by Hague.
The key way in which he should have been bold was by firing Brown. But he didn’t, and that’s why he was stymied at home and sought new outlets abroad.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
But what do you propose the govt should be doing that they're not doing?
They've sent the blue envelope to all over 18s. They've set up walk-in centres so people can get jabbed without an appointment if they want.
They've even changed the requirement for NHS numbers - if you are an illegal without an NHS number you can turn up to a walk-in centre and get jabbed now.
They've tried to threaten people with vaccine passports.
Not sure what else there is left to do without using force.
There is also the problem that 18-24 year olds are particularly anti-Tory/Remainery and they probably take pleasure in not getting vaxxed just to see Boris miss his targets. Especially as they believe covid is not much of a threat to them. The only way to get them immune is for them to get infected and acquire natural immunity. Which they probably will before Sept.
Risking getting an illness just to annoy Boris Johnson is not something I would have predicted beforehand. (I know this age group is a lot less likely to get seriously ill).
Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?
Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing. But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
Except its not certain. The herd immunity effect was already there, the fact is 90% of adults had antibodies already. There is no reason to have a plateau if the virus was as I thought just filling in the gaps where there were pools of transmissability due to low vaccine takeup in certain areas or demographics.
Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.
I think it is near-certain. The virus spread rate and the antibody levels are not uniformly distributed. If you've got (say) 100 locations, the virus will run out of potential hosts initially in just a few of them, the others will keep on ramping up. So you'd expect a fairly gradual hump, not a sharp peak - and this is a very sharp fall-off from the peak.
I'm sorry but in my opinion that completely misreads the situation. You don't need a gradual hump because we've actually had a gradual hump - the quite limited rise in cases we've had has been as restrictions were lifted. Had they been under past levels of restrictions, without the vaccines, and with Delta then the virus would have spread much faster. Instead its already been limited at how it could spread and when less than 10% of all adults lacked antibodies there's a very limited room for it to spread.
Exponential growth doesn't work in a limited population set and by having 90% of the population being somewhat immune to the virus we've seriously restricted the viruses ability to spread.
The remaining 10% can realistically only be infected once typically. So if someone was exposed and infected last month then who are they going to infect now if they were the unvaccinated person in that social circle?
One thing that isn’t mentioned in all these discussions about “surprise” at precipitate falls from a peak, is that most of the models show this sort of thing as well. Especially the ones which aren’t trying to implement suppression measures. The variable is really the point of the peak, not the shape of the curve.
Does arguably make an argument that the vaccine really did come to the rescue. And if it hadn’t then the lockdown policy really might have been a disaster and it might have been better to just get the whole horrible thing over with as fast as possible....
Economic growth numbers for Q3 could are going to be absolutely enormous across the developed world. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% annualised growth numbers. (Bear in mind, the US reports annualised numbers, and the UK and Europe report quarterly, so the Americans always look to be doing 4x better.)
There's a more than evens chance that the UK recovers to pre-pandemic levels by the end of August and makes up a pretty substantial bit of the lost potential from the last 18 months so that in 2022 we're actually only around 1-2% behind where whole would otherwise have been.
One thing to point out to the centre left here, I as most have gathered don't approve of vax ports. Though not an anti vaxxer. If Starmer as at one point seemed likely had come out against them as illiberal then I may have held my nose and voted labour assuming he kept on sanitising the corybnites from the party.
As it is I have a choice of tory we are authoritarian, labour the tories arent being nearly authoritarian enough, and lib dems tell us what you want us to stand for to get your vote and we will tell you thats what we stand for
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
Test and trace springs to mind. Almost a complete failure on every level, being led by a failed telephone saleswoman who got the gig because of who she was having sex with.
For the amount of money they spent on it, spent intelligently, schools could have been kept open. It would not have been easy but it could have been done.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
Just a gentle wind up Nigel. And a reminder that he has actually got several of the bigger calls spot on, whether by luck or otherwise.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
He's always been lucky. Most people don't say they want to be "World King" when they're young and then actually end up being mayor of London and prime minister of the UK.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
Test and trace springs to mind. Almost a complete failure on every level, being led by a failed telephone saleswoman who got the gig because of who she was having sex with.
For the amount of money they spent on it, spent intelligently, schools could have been kept open. It would not have been easy but it could have been done.
Can you post spoiler warnings before you saddle me with mind bleach moments like dido harding having sex please. Its merely polite
Economic growth numbers for Q3 could are going to be absolutely enormous across the developed world. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% annualised growth numbers. (Bear in mind, the US reports annualised numbers, and the UK and Europe report quarterly, so the Americans always look to be doing 4x better.)
There's a more than evens chance that the UK recovers to pre-pandemic levels by the end of August and makes up a pretty substantial bit of the lost potential from the last 18 months so that in 2022 we're actually only around 1-2% behind where whole would otherwise have been.
While that may come to pass,
lets not forget:
1) Massive incres in national debt, 2) loss of education to a generation out of school and university for 8-9 months,
Possible/probable surge in inflation, and higher interest rates that will follow, may curtail the 'recovery boom' sooner than many think.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
Test and trace springs to mind. Almost a complete failure on every level, being led by a failed telephone saleswoman who got the gig because of who she was having sex with.
For the amount of money they spent on it, spent intelligently, schools could have been kept open. It would not have been easy but it could have been done.
Can you post spoiler warnings before you saddle me with mind bleach moments like dido harding having sex please. Its merely polite
A trigger warning, surely?
I don’t think a film that included Dido Harding having sex would need any spoiler warnings. After all, nobody would watch it.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
He's always been lucky. Most people don't say they want to be "World King" when they're young and then actually end up being mayor of London and prime minister of the UK.
True. Exceeded expectations. World King would surely be a demotion.
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
He's always been lucky. Most people don't say they want to be "World King" when they're young and then actually end up being mayor of London and prime minister of the UK.
Even Dick Whittington didn’t get past stage 1. Has he still got the option of trying to conquer America?
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
There have been a lot of politicians and demagogues through history who (along with their unquestioning and adoring fanbase) have mistaken a run of good fortune for genius.
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
Test and trace springs to mind. Almost a complete failure on every level, being led by a failed telephone saleswoman who got the gig because of who she was having sex with.
For the amount of money they spent on it, spent intelligently, schools could have been kept open. It would not have been easy but it could have been done.
Can you post spoiler warnings before you saddle me with mind bleach moments like dido harding having sex please. Its merely polite
A trigger warning, surely?
I don’t think a film that included Dido Harding having sex would need any spoiler warnings. After all, nobody would watch it.
We live in a world where people like to have sex with bicycles
So what we really need is some polling on the real question of the moment: Boris Johnston: fucking genius or luckiest man on the planet?
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate. Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology. A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
He's always been lucky. Most people don't say they want to be "World King" when they're young and then actually end up being mayor of London and prime minister of the UK.
Even Dick Whittington didn’t get past stage 1. Has he still got the option of trying to conquer America?
He was Mayor of Calais too as well as MP, Sheriff of Middlesex, a Lord Commissioner in ordinary and a judge.
No chance of Johnson being one of those (apart from MP of course).
Economic growth numbers for Q3 could are going to be absolutely enormous across the developed world. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% annualised growth numbers. (Bear in mind, the US reports annualised numbers, and the UK and Europe report quarterly, so the Americans always look to be doing 4x better.)
There's a more than evens chance that the UK recovers to pre-pandemic levels by the end of August and makes up a pretty substantial bit of the lost potential from the last 18 months so that in 2022 we're actually only around 1-2% behind where whole would otherwise have been.
I think there's about a 30% chance that by 2024 the UK is actually ahead of where we would have been otherwise.
Strong momentum continuing, plus trillions of fiscal expenditure globally, plus innovations having been developed to improve efficiencies.
Comments
In reply to Omnium on the previous thread - I like Corbyn because I'm basically left-wing and I really appreciate his quiet and unconfrontational personal style (for comparison, I sympathised with Scargill but detested him personally); I've known him on and off for 50 years. But I would like a government that's as electably left of centre as possible, since there are so many positive centre-left things that we can agree on before we start worrying about the more radical stuff like wealth taxes which need a further Overton Window shift. That's why I was happy to support Blair and Brown, and why I'm pleased if Starmer does well.
It's not especially unusual among Labour members. They'll say "I wish Starmer was more radical but at any rate I hope he wins". There is an obvious question whether you have to be centrist to win (I think it's not quite that simple - rather, you have to avoid repelling people by being aggressive), but anyway it's possible to disagree with the strategy but be pleased if it works.
Which is rather like the pandemic, come to think of it. I think the Government has taken a risk, but with luck it will work out.
Senator Vance thinks that Christians should only get one vote, while Muslims should get three...
I'm happy to agree the "pingdemic" has been a grotesque self-inflicted own goal - I was in my local Tesco's today and supplies of milk and bottled water were almost exhausted.
Perhaps the Prime Minister should ask that nice Mr Rashford to lead the campaign to encourage vaccine take up among the 18-24 age group.
I don't support vaccination passports - if everyone on here (we seem replete with immunologists, epidemiologists, statisticians and data analysts) seems to think the case numbers have peaked and are falling, the argument for "vaxports" will fall away with them - until of course the schools go back in September of course.
We had a big fall in cases last August - down to <1000 a day - and we did nothing to prevent the second wave. The Government stood back, let everyone go to the beach and by September it was panic stations.
We cannot waste the opportunity of the next 4-6 weeks like we did last year. We need a coherent plan for booster vaccinations and for the return of children to school in September.
Those following the news know that:
- half the government thinks the decision was a mistake, including the minister who wasn’t there at the time. If even Shapps has twigged that something is wrong, it must be bad;
- it’s widely expected to be abandoned next week, anyway
- meanwhile the government hangs onto the policy, just to save face, wrecking a lot of family plans including those of people who will inevitably decide to abandon their holidays just days before the government abandons the policy. Which will anger them still further
But it does look indeed in hindsight, whether I like it or not, that he may have made the right call and timed the date pretty much to perfection.
Your final three paragraphs seem a tad illogical. I agree with you completely that I disagree with vaxports - but vaxports from September do indeed seem a sensibly pragmatic solution for the winter. I disagree with them on principle, but from a matter of pragmatism it seems a very good idea.
The argument for vaxports are for preventing a winter surge so getting everyone vaccinated before the winter, which that nudge will encourage, is a coherent plan. A more coherent plan than disrupting kids education!
It's the fact that Reform *might* be up to 4% in the polls.
What on earth is it that aligns you to the left?
@fact_covid - https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1419695957810233344
Good to see that PCR positivity in England has dropped for the first time since 14 May.
It’s 11.5% for the weekly period ending 21 July, down from 11.8% the day before.
This demonstrates the fall in cases is not entirely related to reduced testing…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England
The patients who pull through are for ever changed – their Covid scepticism disappears once they have experienced time in intensive care, Batt-Rawden said.
Glenn Barratt passed away in the Diana, Princess of Wales hospital in Grimsby after fighting coronavirus for weeks. The 51-year-old, from Cleethorpes, had opted not to have the vaccine. But his final words to bedside nurses and doctors were: “I wish I had.”
And yet still people moan.
Thankless task.
Politics is essentially about compromise (when it’s not, living under it generally becomes rather unpleasant), and for activists of left, right, or centre, they got involved and worked hard hoping to see their preferred policies implemented in full, rather than watered down when they come to rub up against the world as it is. (you only have to look at the damage being done by our hard Brexit to see the consequences when ideological policy is implemented without any compromise).
And, relatedly, when we were young we hoped to change the world, or at least see it changed, yet in reality the pace of change is very slow. Even when older and able to appreciate the merits of more gradual change, it is frustrating when there are glaring injustices crying out to be addressed and all governments are willing to do is fiddle round the edges.
Nick must feel this particularly strongly, as he was part of Labour’s 1997 intake and the government that, in its pitifully timid first term, wasted its political capital and became a tragic missed opportunity. By the time Blair acquired the confidence and ability in office to lead from the front and take on his opponents, he used it all for the wrong things, and millions died as a consequence.
Their R is now at 1.8. I wonder what the shape of their Third Wave will be. Wide and quite high, as it is a large country but with some very dense cosmopolitans parts?
That people may have stopped getting tested if they have mild symptoms.
There will be those who recall comments about "dates not data" but it doesn't much matter. The likelihood of cases declining once the schools emptied was always there and perhaps, on that basis, we can't be surprised at the fall in case numbers which will accelerate sharply into August much as it did last year.
The question remains - how should the Government use the "window of opportunity" the next 5 weeks provides? Should we not be getting younger people vaccinated - I frequently mention the vaccine numbers in Newham (57% first dose, 38.5% both doses).
What about planning for booster shots?
What do we know or what can science tell us about the continued efficacy of antibodies whether obtained via vaccination or infection? This is the kind of information which should be out there and forming the public policy discussion - do we need a booster this autumn? Who needs it and when? What of those who acquired immunity via infection? That won't last forever so they will become susceptible once again.
We squandered an opportunity last year to accurately plan for a likely second wave and it turned into an embarrassing fiasco last autumn and winter.
We must do better this year.
That means we now have six weeks to get immunity sorted before schools go back. It's that simple.
On the subject of the polls, the striking thing is that the drift has been going on for a while now- since late May? Recent events certainly haven't helped, but there's a rot setting in.
His entire time as LOTO was spent re-assuring Conservative voters he wasn't going to be radical, the main tenets of the Thatcher Government model would be preserved, indeed people could vote Labour without fearing they would lose out economically in any way and indeed for older votes it was all about spending on education so people could feel their tax money was going to help their children and grandchildren.
The magnitude of the landslide provided an opportunity for radical reform but Blair couldn't or wouldn't take it. His voting coalition was the antithesis of radical - tax the same, spend a little more, do it a little better and be more pleasant and honest than the sleaze-ridden Conservatives - that was essentially it.
That's Starmer's winning message in 2024 if he wants it.
I think that someone has made a good public health risk-based call, like extending the interval, but I don;'t know who.
Do we have enough Pfizer to do 12-17?
Combine this with the end of the football and school holidays, and you have a big drop off in case numbers.
(As an aside, I am in awe of your ability to rewrite reality to match your prognostications. That's a real skill.)
Vaxports are one pragmatic solution to get the younger people nudged into being vaccinated - but you're against that. So what else do you propose?
Planning for booster shots is already going ahead. There will be a booster campaign ran alongside the flu campaign this autumn.
More votes for people with brain cells, that's what I say!
They've sent the blue envelope to all over 18s. They've set up walk-in centres so people can get jabbed without an appointment if they want.
They've even changed the requirement for NHS numbers - if you are an illegal without an NHS number you can turn up to a walk-in centre and get jabbed now.
They've tried to threaten people with vaccine passports.
Not sure what else there is left to do without using force.
There is also the problem that 18-24 year olds are particularly anti-Tory/Remainery and they probably take pleasure in not getting vaxxed just to see Boris miss his targets. Especially as they believe covid is not much of a threat to them. The only way to get them immune is for them to get infected and acquire natural immunity. Which they probably will before Sept.
I didn't respond because she didn't deserve the conversation that she was obviously itching for. What would others have done in the circumstances?
I just thought what a nasty person.
The evidence tends to the former:
Astonishing hit rate on successful vaccines and simply brilliant contracts organised by (surely) Dame Kate.
Superb call on delaying the second vaccinations and focussing on the first , decried by various “experts” now accepted as the most effective methodology.
A continuation of the lockdown until within 3 days of the peak, just on the right side to be sure.
There have been lesser triumphs; the way the vaccine roll out has been achieved; the building from scratch of vaccine production in this country, I could go on all night. But really, genius has to be the winner, doesn’t it?
Lol.
https://twitter.com/markniesse/status/1419706215169413124?s=19
Article is blocked for euro readers but basically Godbye free and fair elections in the USA.
Exponential growth doesn't work in a limited population set and by having 90% of the population being somewhat immune to the virus we've seriously restricted the viruses ability to spread.
The remaining 10% can realistically only be infected once typically. So if someone was exposed and infected last month then who are they going to infect now if they were the unvaccinated person in that social circle?
This seems totally sound.
While legislators could start the takeover process, the decision about whether to do so rests with the State Election Board, made up of three Republicans and one Democrat. The General Assembly removed Raffensperger from the board after he certified last year’s election, refused Trump’s call to “find” more votes and debunked allegations of fraud
Though in fairness the piece does state
Fulton has a record of election difficulties, including a history of long lines, slow results and administrative errors
The whole reason I selected my peak figure and day guess was modelling it on the lag from Scottish schools closing to peak day in Scotland.
“However did they win...?”
Partly from looking at 2% of the cases-by-specimen date averaged figure from a week earlier, and partly from the rate of increase in numbers in hospital up to this morning.
The admission numbers are usually final, once they arrive....
I thought UK reported monthly in one form, which is why we get media bashed every month
Anyhoo, this was the FT I think today:
(Source: retweet within Euro-Twitter community)
The time for Blair to be bold wasn’t 1997 - it was 2001, when he had been in government four years and the skies hadn’t fallen in. But even then, care was needed - look at May when she tried to be bold against a far weaker opposition than the one led by Hague.
The key way in which he should have been bold was by firing Brown. But he didn’t, and that’s why he was stymied at home and sought new outlets abroad.
Does arguably make an argument that the vaccine really did come to the rescue. And if it hadn’t then the lockdown policy really might have been a disaster and it might have been better to just get the whole horrible thing over with as fast as possible....
As it is I have a choice of tory we are authoritarian, labour the tories arent being nearly authoritarian enough, and lib dems tell us what you want us to stand for to get your vote and we will tell you thats what we stand for
PS. You seem to have missed out all of his complete fuck ups! keep believing David. One day even you will thing "Boris Johnson? Prime Minister? WTF?!"
For the amount of money they spent on it, spent intelligently, schools could have been kept open. It would not have been easy but it could have been done.
lets not forget:
1) Massive incres in national debt,
2) loss of education to a generation out of school and university for 8-9 months,
Possible/probable surge in inflation, and higher interest rates that will follow, may curtail the 'recovery boom' sooner than many think.
I don’t think a film that included Dido Harding having sex would need any spoiler warnings. After all, nobody would watch it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7095134.stm
There is bound to be someone who would eagerly watch
No chance of Johnson being one of those (apart from MP of course).
Strong momentum continuing, plus trillions of fiscal expenditure globally, plus innovations having been developed to improve efficiencies.