An intriguing idea is being put forward by J.D Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy and Republican candidate for the vacant seat for Ohio on the US Senate. In an attack on what he terms the “childless left” he’s proposed a radical scheme to give parents of children under the age of 18 extra voting power.
Comments
As a supporter of democracy, what a silly policy.
1) They are double jabbed plus three weeks at least
2) After mid August they wouldn't have to isolate
This weeks decline in numbers looks to me to be much more that vaccines are doing there thing, much more that schools braking up for summer holidays.
I can't imagine "FREEEEEEEDOMMMMM DAY" is doing the Tories much good in the polls given the pingdemic. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.
I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.
To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.
Its why it was the most astute move to not open up in June. The Government knew big case rises were coming and knew the headlines they would get.
If you remember they refused to open up when there were 6,000 cases per day but did open up when there were 50,000 cases per day. They knew the way Delta behaved.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1419689532291698699?s=19
Westminster Voting Intention (25 July):
Conservative 40% (-2)
Labour 36% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 19 July
Redfield and Wilton
CON: 40% (-2)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
via @RedfieldWilton, 25 Jul
CHgs. w/ 19 Jul
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419689180884578309?s=20
https://order-order.com/2021/07/26/survation-has-labour-catching-tories/
The test of that theory, will be the response, if the fall in cases continues.....
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418846951404081152?s=19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Wet
Would be fun to see the campaign ads out about 9 months before an election though. "9 months to [beget enough children to multiply up your Labour vote and] save the NHS"
Which is essential to winning elections.
That's the sort of stupidity you get when you start on this sort of thing.
- Blind luck
- It's all down to the schools, so when schools come back we will all die
- Re-infections aren't counted, so 300 trillion cases are missing from the data.
I remember telling my daughter this on a Tube train when she was wondering why adults are in charge. The Nigerian gentlemen opposite nearly fell out of his seat laughing.
In the UK incidentally this proposal would offer a big boost to Labour.
Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.
Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy
Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
He who pays the piper, calls the tune.
The test is in a week has the effect faded.
Every year people should fill in a detailed health questionnaire and submit data on exercise, sex, diet, alcohol consumption, hereditary conditions, etc., so that a personalised "years remaining" estimate can be used. This should then be used as the personal vote deflator, not broad averages.
Interesting.....
I don’t really get people being pissed off for guidance, which they think is silly, if they are not legally required to follow it.
At least this way we get more money.
Part of me is really starting to think we may actually have hit herd immunity - 92% of adults have COVID antibodies which is 48m people, of the 14m under 18s in the country if even 40% have previously had it that takes us to 55m with COVID antibodies out of 67m which is 82% of the total population. Even with delta being as virulent as it is anywhere north of 80% makes for a pretty hostile environment for the virus as the virus only runs into a properly viable host 1/5 times, 4 in 5 times it either hits a completely unviable host or one that it finds it difficult to get any real traction in to properly replicate and continue to spread.
If the vaccine passport can be used to convince 4m additional people to get double jabbed then COVID is done in the UK. It's had its run and domestically we're not going to be talking about this in a few months other than to say, thank fuck we're done with it.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1419663580329295875?s=20
It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
Currently he's lifting restrictions faster than most people wanted leading to criticism.
Currently the narrative is cases rising and people being worried again.
Currently the narrative is "pingdemonium" chaos.
In a few weeks time we'll quite possibly have a narrative of.
Cases having plumetting back down.
Pings over for the vaccinated.
Hospitalisations etc never got out of control with unlocking.
The unlocking was timed to perfection and people can look forwards with optimism.
"the “pingdemic” is nothing more than a distraction to divert from the real, underlying issues: the government’s failure to address spiralling infections, and its pursuit of policies that exacerbate this problem".
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1419688622681374721
Polling tie soon!
They thought the end of American democracy as they saw it was if Bill Gates (or similar in the real billionaire crowd) setup a self funded party.
Without input from the pyramid of lobbyists and special interests, such a populist party would wipe out the incumbents - they would only need to bow to their paymaster, not the usual funding circuit to scramble for money. So they would appear totally clean to the electorate and could campaign on cutting off all money to their opponents....
They saw this as bypassing the entire real American political class.
Start off at 18 with 5% of a vote and gain another 5% for every year you've paid taxes.
I don't see it as anti-democratic in the slightest. Quite the opposite, it's one person, one vote, from birth, and while people are too young to exercise their vote then their parent can exercise that on their behalf. I wouldn't necessarily link this to age either - if a politically interested 14 year-old wants to exercise their right to vote then I'd allow them to do so by applying to their returning officer. This would then mean that, for example, adults with learning disabilities who weren't able to cast a vote could still be represented by having their carer cast their vote on their behalf.
I think this is the great act of electoral rebalancing that our democracy needs to free itself from the dead weight of the old.
Labour should we well ahead now with all the negative press the Government has had.
For OGH's bet to succeed it will need to happen in the next 10 days, by the end of August we will be back to double figure leads..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtZ1Dk-qK2U
But will it be LAB who are ahead at the GE?
Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.
Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
It was a cat.
Which still means I have seen more ferrets on a leash (three) and men on a leash (two) in public than cats.
Perhaps it will not be this time - but it will be soon.
And Starmer has clearly improved his popularity, which shows he is not Jeremy Corbyn.
Why this is happens is a question. But it is quite common.
Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
·
Jul 15
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178
I think that humans naturally create "bubbles" of friends, family, work groups, sports. Obviously there are overlaps, but this may well, in many societies, create a system of blobs where the intersections are rare at certain scales....
All this would require some detailed research to prove - but it is an interesting hypothesis.
He's one to watch for the future. But this policy is bonkers. Seems just a way of getting some attention.
No wonder Big G is shook.
It might be if this was a disease with an R of 1.1 and where there was no mitigation efforts, as this would mean that case growth would slow dramatically (and even reverse) as you approached herd immunity. But for a disease with a much higher R level it will likely overshoot, and the come down very sharply.
People look at Keir and realise he isn’t a screaming Trot.
I still don’t think he can win though.
I got muddled in my mind between Change UK and Reform UK.
And yet it’s easy to tell the difference.
Change UK were cucks who ended up being fucked, and Reform UK are cucks who wish to RefUK us.
Even very annoyed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32iCWzpDpKs
I'm interested in this as we will be travelling by ferry in the near future, and so will be interested in when we'd expect to be able to detect any acquired infection.
Perhaps the fall has also been accelerated by the high humidity last week? There has been lots of speculation about low dewpoint being an issue.
R0 is surely a myth, anyway. There's no such thing as 'normal behaviour' (or even 'normal weather'), so the required herd immunity % will bounce up and down continuously.
I'm optimistic this is the end (barring another smaller spike when schools go back - or flesh-eating variant Omega).
Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.