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A novel approach to democracy from a Republican Senate candidate – give parents extra voting power –

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 26 in General
imageA novel approach to democracy from a Republican Senate candidate – give parents extra voting power – politicalbetting.com

An intriguing idea is being put forward by J.D Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy and Republican candidate for the vacant seat for Ohio on the US Senate. In an attack on what he terms the “childless left” he’s proposed a radical scheme to give parents of children under the age of 18 extra voting power.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    edited July 26
    As a parent I support this policy.

    As a supporter of democracy, what a silly policy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    FPT

    I can't imagine the pingdemic is doing the Tories much good. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.

    I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.

    To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.

    Yup, I've got several friends in similar situations, what really pisses them off is

    1) They are double jabbed plus three weeks at least

    2) After mid August they wouldn't have to isolate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,956
    Courts would strike this down in UK
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266

    Pro_Rata said:

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
    It's massively the younger groups making up the cases

    image
    15-19 age group overtaking 20-24 age group in to the lead to as the most affected age group, and 10-14 overtaking 25-29 as the third most affected.

    This weeks decline in numbers looks to me to be much more that vaccines are doing there thing, much more that schools braking up for summer holidays.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 26
    The poor polling for the Tories on the previous thread...

    I can't imagine "FREEEEEEEDOMMMMM DAY" is doing the Tories much good in the polls given the pingdemic. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.

    I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.

    To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,076
    I think too much time is spent looking for reasons for the way the virus behaves. The virus will always do what it wants and I know I keep saying it but the way cases fell of a cliff in India despite there being very little social distancing there showed that Delta infects quickly and then just as quickly stops infecting. It happened in Scotland, Holland and its now happening in England.

    Its why it was the most astute move to not open up in June. The Government knew big case rises were coming and knew the headlines they would get.

    If you remember they refused to open up when there were 6,000 cases per day but did open up when there were 50,000 cases per day. They knew the way Delta behaved.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Kaboom.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25 July):

    Conservative 40% (-2)
    Labour 36% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 19 July

    Redfield and Wilton
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    edited July 26

    What happened to that other poll that was promised for this afternoon?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-2)
    LAB: 36% (+3)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 25 Jul
    CHgs. w/ 19 Jul


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1419689180884578309?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    edited July 26

    The poor polling for the Tories on the previous thread...

    I can't imagine "FREEEEEEEDOMMMMM DAY" is doing the Tories much good in the polls given the pingdemic. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.

    I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.

    To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.

    I think also the media message of "CRAZED IDIOT BORIS WILL KILL US ALLLLLLLLL!" is probably not to the Conservatives advantage.

    The test of that theory, will be the response, if the fall in cases continues.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915
    edited July 26
    Well, it's a novel idea, certainly. Has about as much merit as restricting the votes of people who are statistically likely to die before the next election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    This is an interesting commentary on the Conservative falling poll lead

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418846951404081152?s=19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    edited July 26
    Selebian said:

    As a parent I support this policy.

    As a supporter of democracy, what a silly policy.

    In the UK, it would also give our PM a degree of voting power that would mean he could probably move house to any Tory marginal and swing the vote. Depending on the definition of 'parent' of course.

    Would be fun to see the campaign ads out about 9 months before an election though. "9 months to [beget enough children multiply up your Labour vote and] save the NHS" :smile:
    Brings up a whole new meaning to knocking up the voters.

    Which is essential to winning elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 26

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    I am fairly certain they will seamlessly move past the case numbers and pushing the narrative that schools are clearly too dangerous, we must vaccinate all children immediately and we can't reopen them after the summer holidays because doing so the Johnson variant will become rampant again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    From Twatter, it seems the line is

    - Blind luck
    - It's all down to the schools, so when schools come back we will all die
    - Re-infections aren't counted, so 300 trillion cases are missing from the data.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,569
    Pulpstar said:

    Courts would strike this down in UK

    They couldn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    Personally I'd give triple the vote to the fully vaccinated and no votes to the willingly non vaccinated (so people who for medical reasons cannot have the jab don't suffer.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    IshmaelZ said:

    Votes should be weighted by age. 18 year olds should get 100% of a vote. You then lose vote by a factor of [(life expectancy at 18) - 18]/100] per year till you lose the vote at life expectancy.

    That's the sort of stupidity you get when you start on this sort of thing.

    I believe in one man, one vote. I am that man.

    I remember telling my daughter this on a Tube train when she was wondering why adults are in charge. The Nigerian gentlemen opposite nearly fell out of his seat laughing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 26

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    From Twatter, it seems the line is

    - Blind luck
    - It's all down to the schools, so when schools come back we will all die
    - Re-infections aren't counted, so 300 trillion cases are missing from the data.
    Uncounted reinfections is to Zero Covidians what the false positives were to the anti-lockdown lot.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    Personally I'd give triple the vote to the fully vaccinated and no votes to the willingly non vaccinated (so people who for medical reasons cannot have the jab don't suffer.)

    With a bonus vote to those who got the Astrazeneca vaccine.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,909
    This reminds me of the Texan in Catch-22 who wanted more votes for the decent folk.
    In the UK incidentally this proposal would offer a big boost to Labour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    Pulpstar said:

    Courts would strike this down in UK

    I'm fairly sure it's unconstitutional in the US. It'd be a bit like slave owners getting a vote for every one of their slaves.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    IshmaelZ said:

    Votes should be weighted by age. 18 year olds should get 100% of a vote. You then lose vote by a factor of [(life expectancy at 18) - 18]/100] per year till you lose the vote at life expectancy.

    That's the sort of stupidity you get when you start on this sort of thing.

    I thoroughly approve. The people who will live with the decision longest get the most say.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    edited July 26
    The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August

    Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.

    Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy

    Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,789
    kle4 said:

    Well, it's a novel idea, certainly. Has about as much merit as restricting the votes of people who are statistically likely to die before the next election.

    Or black people.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    I am fairly certain they will seamlessly move past the case numbers and pushing the narrative that schools are clearly too dangerous, we must vaccinate all children immediately and we can't reopen them after the summer holidays because doing so the Johnson variant will become rampant again.
    Fair play to Starmer, he's started to destroy the Tory lead and Boris Johnson's ratings since he started using 'The Johnson Variant.'
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702

    Personally I'd give triple the vote to the fully vaccinated and no votes to the willingly non vaccinated (so people who for medical reasons cannot have the jab don't suffer.)

    With a bonus vote to those who got the Astrazeneca vaccine.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1354147044454248449
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,071
    These polls are all reflecting the Boris/Sunak will they/won't they dance.

    The test is in a week has the effect faded.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,909
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, it's a novel idea, certainly. Has about as much merit as restricting the votes of people who are statistically likely to die before the next election.

    Or black people.
    The Republicans are all over that one already, don't worry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    edited July 26
    IshmaelZ said:

    Votes should be weighted by age. 18 year olds should get 100% of a vote. You then lose vote by a factor of [(life expectancy at 18) - 18]/100] per year till you lose the vote at life expectancy.

    That's the sort of stupidity you get when you start on this sort of thing.

    No, no, no, that's far too simple.

    Every year people should fill in a detailed health questionnaire and submit data on exercise, sex, diet, alcohol consumption, hereditary conditions, etc., so that a personalised "years remaining" estimate can be used. This should then be used as the personal vote deflator, not broad averages.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    edited July 26

    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

    So Bill Gates and Elon Musk will spend a couple of % and divide the country between them?

    Interesting.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    What about cats?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,789

    The poor polling for the Tories on the previous thread...

    I can't imagine "FREEEEEEEDOMMMMM DAY" is doing the Tories much good in the polls given the pingdemic. Its been the #1 story the media have been talking about for a couple of weeks now.

    I got contacted by a friend who I was trying to sort out going to meet up with and they are in isolation.....for the 3rd time in 5-6 weeks....they literally come out of it, got pinged the next day or so, and none of those times have they had COVID.

    To say they were pissed about Boris / government would be like saying Prof Peston was a bit of a wally.

    Why the feck don’t they turn the app off. And it’s not even like they are legally obliged to follow it.

    I don’t really get people being pissed off for guidance, which they think is silly, if they are not legally required to follow it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    On Monday 26 July there were 14 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536

    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

    You've kept the Tories out of power for a generation and then some, all those pensioners unable to vote and put Labour in power for a generation.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

    So Bill Gates and Elon Muck will spend a couple of % and divide the country between them?

    Interesting.....
    If some people are to be believed, they already do that without paying any taxation.

    At least this way we get more money.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984
    edited July 26
    We should have seen a slowdown in the case contraction rate today as the step 4 activity starts to feed in. Wednesday is going to be a very big day for this country. If we are still seeing 40% WoW drops then it's hard to see how the cases go back up.

    Part of me is really starting to think we may actually have hit herd immunity - 92% of adults have COVID antibodies which is 48m people, of the 14m under 18s in the country if even 40% have previously had it that takes us to 55m with COVID antibodies out of 67m which is 82% of the total population. Even with delta being as virulent as it is anywhere north of 80% makes for a pretty hostile environment for the virus as the virus only runs into a properly viable host 1/5 times, 4 in 5 times it either hits a completely unviable host or one that it finds it difficult to get any real traction in to properly replicate and continue to spread.

    If the vaccine passport can be used to convince 4m additional people to get double jabbed then COVID is done in the UK. It's had its run and domestically we're not going to be talking about this in a few months other than to say, thank fuck we're done with it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536
    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited July 26
    Interesting new drive to get young people vaccinated - free food and live music with your jab

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1419663580329295875?s=20
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,043

    The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August

    Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.

    Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy

    Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has

    English hospital admissions look to have peaked now.

    It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    I suspect we're currently a few weeks away from another Boris bounce in the polls.

    Currently he's lifting restrictions faster than most people wanted leading to criticism.
    Currently the narrative is cases rising and people being worried again.
    Currently the narrative is "pingdemonium" chaos.

    In a few weeks time we'll quite possibly have a narrative of.
    Cases having plumetting back down.
    Pings over for the vaccinated.
    Hospitalisations etc never got out of control with unlocking.
    The unlocking was timed to perfection and people can look forwards with optimism.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,909

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    So wrong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    I am fairly certain they will seamlessly move past the case numbers and pushing the narrative that schools are clearly too dangerous, we must vaccinate all children immediately and we can't reopen them after the summer holidays because doing so the Johnson variant will become rampant again.
    Fair play to Starmer, he's started to destroy the Tory lead and Boris Johnson's ratings since he started using 'The Johnson Variant.'
    Just retweeted:

    "the “pingdemic” is nothing more than a distraction to divert from the real, underlying issues: the government’s failure to address spiralling infections, and its pursuit of policies that exacerbate this problem".

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1419688622681374721
  • There is now a clear polling trend.

    Polling tie soon!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702

    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

    So Bill Gates and Elon Muck will spend a couple of % and divide the country between them?

    Interesting.....
    If some people are to be believed, they already do that without paying any taxation.

    At least this way we get more money.
    A number of years ago, I was talking with friends of my American relatives, who were in political circles in Washington, in a minor way.

    They thought the end of American democracy as they saw it was if Bill Gates (or similar in the real billionaire crowd) setup a self funded party.

    Without input from the pyramid of lobbyists and special interests, such a populist party would wipe out the incumbents - they would only need to bow to their paymaster, not the usual funding circuit to scramble for money. So they would appear totally clean to the electorate and could campaign on cutting off all money to their opponents....

    They saw this as bypassing the entire real American political class.
  • This is an interesting commentary on the Conservative falling poll lead

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418846951404081152?s=19

    Stating the obvious there. Governments lose elections
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    IshmaelZ said:

    Votes should be weighted by age. 18 year olds should get 100% of a vote. You then lose vote by a factor of [(life expectancy at 18) - 18]/100] per year till you lose the vote at life expectancy.

    That's the sort of stupidity you get when you start on this sort of thing.

    Or you do a vote deflator based on how much experience people have to take into account how life experience shapes people's views.

    Start off at 18 with 5% of a vote and gain another 5% for every year you've paid taxes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, it's a novel idea, certainly. Has about as much merit as restricting the votes of people who are statistically likely to die before the next election.

    Or black people.
    The Republicans are all over that one already, don't worry.
    No, no, no. The trick is to "accidentally" disenfranchise Black people, not do it directly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,536

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    So wrong.
    I wrote that as a cat owner.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,615
    I proposed this idea on here several times in the past. Firstly as a joke, after I noticed that younger women were the most anti-Tory demographic, but later quite seriously, as I think it has merit, and it would help to shift the electorate away from the gerontocracy that currently dominates.

    I don't see it as anti-democratic in the slightest. Quite the opposite, it's one person, one vote, from birth, and while people are too young to exercise their vote then their parent can exercise that on their behalf. I wouldn't necessarily link this to age either - if a politically interested 14 year-old wants to exercise their right to vote then I'd allow them to do so by applying to their returning officer. This would then mean that, for example, adults with learning disabilities who weren't able to cast a vote could still be represented by having their carer cast their vote on their behalf.

    I think this is the great act of electoral rebalancing that our democracy needs to free itself from the dead weight of the old.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413
    MattW said:

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    I am fairly certain they will seamlessly move past the case numbers and pushing the narrative that schools are clearly too dangerous, we must vaccinate all children immediately and we can't reopen them after the summer holidays because doing so the Johnson variant will become rampant again.
    Fair play to Starmer, he's started to destroy the Tory lead and Boris Johnson's ratings since he started using 'The Johnson Variant.'
    Just retweeted:

    "the “pingdemic” is nothing more than a distraction to divert from the real, underlying issues: the government’s failure to address spiralling infections, and its pursuit of policies that exacerbate this problem".

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1419688622681374721
    Ah good old "Independent" SAGE. Some things never change. 🤦‍♂️
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,076

    I suspect we're currently a few weeks away from another Boris bounce in the polls.

    Currently he's lifting restrictions faster than most people wanted leading to criticism.
    Currently the narrative is cases rising and people being worried again.
    Currently the narrative is "pingdemonium" chaos.

    In a few weeks time we'll quite possibly have a narrative of.
    Cases having plumetting back down.
    Pings over for the vaccinated.
    Hospitalisations etc never got out of control with unlocking.
    The unlocking was timed to perfection and people can look forwards with optimism.

    That will be the narrative and it will follow a succesful Olympics for Team GB.

    Labour should we well ahead now with all the negative press the Government has had.

    For OGH's bet to succeed it will need to happen in the next 10 days, by the end of August we will be back to double figure leads..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    So wrong.
    You need one of these, @TSE
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtZ1Dk-qK2U
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,165
    Lot of excitement as LAB gain in the polls!

    But will it be LAB who are ahead at the GE? :smile:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    I suspect we're currently a few weeks away from another Boris bounce in the polls.

    Currently he's lifting restrictions faster than most people wanted leading to criticism.
    Currently the narrative is cases rising and people being worried again.
    Currently the narrative is "pingdemonium" chaos.

    In a few weeks time we'll quite possibly have a narrative of.
    Cases having plumetting back down.
    Pings over for the vaccinated.
    Hospitalisations etc never got out of control with unlocking.
    The unlocking was timed to perfection and people can look forwards with optimism.

    That will be the narrative and it will follow a succesful Olympics for Team GB.

    Labour should we well ahead now with all the negative press the Government has had.

    For OGH's bet to succeed it will need to happen in the next 10 days, by the end of August we will be back to double figure leads..
    Agreed. Its now or never (barring a major shock) for OGH's bet.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    edited July 26
    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:
    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984
    Sean_F said:

    The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August

    Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.

    Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy

    Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has

    English hospital admissions look to have peaked now.

    It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
    Hmm, I'd wait at least another week to call a peak on hospital admissions as there are people still in the funnel from last week that will end up in hospital. The in hospital numbers are rising quite fast, but may actually reach an equilibrium within a couple of weeks if the current drop in cases is sustained. I'd guess they will top out at about 6.5-6.8k in hospital before levelling off and slowly falling back down.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,813

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    So wrong.
    I wrote that as a cat owner.
    Today we went out to Ely. We saw a woman walking her pet on a leash.

    It was a cat.

    Which still means I have seen more ferrets on a leash (three) and men on a leash (two) in public than cats. ;)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,122

    Voting should be linked to taxation contribution.

    He who pays the piper, calls the tune.

    The extreme is just one guy/girl votes. The 'just being alive' thing about democracy is very good. It's very flat in terms of extremes. Ok, so you can come up with ideas about a busload of old people turning up in a one man town and then voting to share. I've no way to think about that, but I will avoid bus-loads of old people.
  • Boris Johnson will run out of road soon. He has flown too close to the Sun too many times.

    Perhaps it will not be this time - but it will be soon.

    And Starmer has clearly improved his popularity, which shows he is not Jeremy Corbyn.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Similar quick increases followed by quick falls have been seen in a number of other countries - occurring without increased measures......

    Why this is happens is a question. But it is quite common.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597
    MaxPB said:

    We should have seen a slowdown in the case contraction rate today as the step 4 activity starts to feed in. Wednesday is going to be a very big day for this country. If we are still seeing 40% WoW drops then it's hard to see how the cases go back up.

    Part of me is really starting to think we may actually have hit herd immunity - 92% of adults have COVID antibodies which is 48m people, of the 14m under 18s in the country if even 40% have previously had it that takes us to 55m with COVID antibodies out of 67m which is 82% of the total population. Even with delta being as virulent as it is anywhere north of 80% makes for a pretty hostile environment for the virus as the virus only runs into a properly viable host 1/5 times, 4 in 5 times it either hits a completely unviable host or one that it finds it difficult to get any real traction in to properly replicate and continue to spread.

    If the vaccine passport can be used to convince 4m additional people to get double jabbed then COVID is done in the UK. It's had its run and domestically we're not going to be talking about this in a few months other than to say, thank fuck we're done with it.

    Let's hope you are right about HI, but:


    Adam Kucharski
    @AdamJKucharski
    ·
    Jul 15
    In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,076

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Its not unexpected at all, look at India's curve
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The fall in conservative ratings has happened since freedom day and the pingdemic and, as most of us have said , the pingdemic is an inexplicable own goal, especially since it ceases to apply from the 16th August

    Boris is reported to be very angry at the level of vaccine uptake in the 18-24 group and something has to be done with this group.

    Vaccine passports for all sporting events and clubbing is a policy I support 100%, but I notice there is quite a fall in support from 2019 conservative voters who like some of their mps are instinctively against this policy

    Anyway, if the encouraging news continues on the fall in cases maybe Boris has made the correct call, and to be honest, for the sake of everyone I hope he has

    English hospital admissions look to have peaked now.

    It does look as though the government has made the right call on reopening.
    Hmm, I'd wait at least another week to call a peak on hospital admissions as there are people still in the funnel from last week that will end up in hospital. The in hospital numbers are rising quite fast, but may actually reach an equilibrium within a couple of weeks if the current drop in cases is sustained. I'd guess they will top out at about 6.5-6.8k in hospital before levelling off and slowly falling back down.
    Yes, that sounds plausible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439

    Kaboom.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25 July):

    Conservative 40% (-2)
    Labour 36% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 19 July

    Redfield and Wilton

    4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    edited July 26

    MaxPB said:

    We should have seen a slowdown in the case contraction rate today as the step 4 activity starts to feed in. Wednesday is going to be a very big day for this country. If we are still seeing 40% WoW drops then it's hard to see how the cases go back up.

    Part of me is really starting to think we may actually have hit herd immunity - 92% of adults have COVID antibodies which is 48m people, of the 14m under 18s in the country if even 40% have previously had it that takes us to 55m with COVID antibodies out of 67m which is 82% of the total population. Even with delta being as virulent as it is anywhere north of 80% makes for a pretty hostile environment for the virus as the virus only runs into a properly viable host 1/5 times, 4 in 5 times it either hits a completely unviable host or one that it finds it difficult to get any real traction in to properly replicate and continue to spread.

    If the vaccine passport can be used to convince 4m additional people to get double jabbed then COVID is done in the UK. It's had its run and domestically we're not going to be talking about this in a few months other than to say, thank fuck we're done with it.

    Let's hope you are right about HI, but:


    Adam Kucharski
    @AdamJKucharski
    ·
    Jul 15
    In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178
    My theory on this is that such calculations fall down on the presumption of a perfectly interconnected population. Which is a spherical cow....

    I think that humans naturally create "bubbles" of friends, family, work groups, sports. Obviously there are overlaps, but this may well, in many societies, create a system of blobs where the intersections are rare at certain scales....

    All this would require some detailed research to prove - but it is an interesting hypothesis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,597
    I've read Vance's book. Very interesting. Comes from a hard scrabble Appalachian life.

    He's one to watch for the future. But this policy is bonkers. Seems just a way of getting some attention.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,877
    Tories lose their majority on these numbers.
    No wonder Big G is shook.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Similar quick increases followed by quick falls have been seen in a number of other countries - occurring without increased measures......

    Why this is happens is a question. But it is quite common.
    But mostly with legal lockdowns or changes of behaviour as people get (rightly) frightened. The odd thing in our figures is that it has coincided with a relaxation of lockdown.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    If pussies were arseholes, would we all be buggered?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    From a mathematical perspective, I'm not sure that your theory is true at all.

    It might be if this was a disease with an R of 1.1 and where there was no mitigation efforts, as this would mean that case growth would slow dramatically (and even reverse) as you approached herd immunity. But for a disease with a much higher R level it will likely overshoot, and the come down very sharply.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,877
    The numbers look “normal” to me.
    People look at Keir and realise he isn’t a screaming Trot.

    I still don’t think he can win though.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,066
    edited July 26
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    From a mathematical perspective, I'm not sure that your theory is true at all.

    It might be if this was a disease with an R of 1.1 and where there was no mitigation efforts, as this would mean that case growth would slow dramatically (and even reverse) as you approached herd immunity. But for a disease with a much higher R level it will likely overshoot, and the come down very sharply.
    Only if the cases are uniformly distributed in the population, which they certainly aren't. And in any case R isn't all that high - it's been (with the mitigation measures) of the order of 1.5ish in the rise to the peak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    Andy_JS said:

    Kaboom.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25 July):

    Conservative 40% (-2)
    Labour 36% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 19 July

    Redfield and Wilton

    4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
    You know how I know I’m tired?

    I got muddled in my mind between Change UK and Reform UK.

    And yet it’s easy to tell the difference.

    Change UK were cucks who ended up being fucked, and Reform UK are cucks who wish to RefUK us.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,984
    I can confirm that my Saturday night has not led to any of the group getting COVID so far (at least according to LFTs). All of us are double vaxxed though 2x AZ, 3x Pfizer and a Moderna from the WhatsApp messages just now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Tories lose their majority on these numbers.
    No wonder Big G is shook.

    I am not shocked and have been highly critical of the pingdemic crisis

    Even very annoyed

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Similar quick increases followed by quick falls have been seen in a number of other countries - occurring without increased measures......

    Why this is happens is a question. But it is quite common.
    But mostly with legal lockdowns or changes of behaviour as people get (rightly) frightened. The odd thing in our figures is that it has coincided with a relaxation of lockdown.
    It coincided, though, with a dramatic reduction in the levels of mingling of the unvaccinated, and the end of the Euros.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,182

    Lot of excitement as LAB gain in the polls!

    But will it be LAB who are ahead at the GE? :smile:

    I'm sure you'll be deliriously happy if we elect a Labour Government next time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    What about cats?

    Cats are arseholes. Fact.
    If pussies were arseholes, would we all be buggered?
    Yes, it has to be posted.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32iCWzpDpKs
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    Cases by specimen date

    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Similar quick increases followed by quick falls have been seen in a number of other countries - occurring without increased measures......

    Why this is happens is a question. But it is quite common.
    But mostly with legal lockdowns or changes of behaviour as people get (rightly) frightened. The odd thing in our figures is that it has coincided with a relaxation of lockdown.
    Its only odd if you believe in the thermostat theory of lockdown, that you can use it to turn up or turn down covid at will.

  • eekeek Posts: 14,808

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    I don't think the rapid fall is completely unexpected - we saw a similar pattern in Scotland and India. The biggest question was when the peak would be and I really was expecting that peak to have been a week later than it turned out to be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    Cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,615
    MaxPB said:

    I can confirm that my Saturday night has not led to any of the group getting COVID so far (at least according to LFTs). All of us are double vaxxed though 2x AZ, 3x Pfizer and a Moderna from the WhatsApp messages just now.

    It's a bit soon for any acquired infection to show up I would have thought?

    I'm interested in this as we will be travelling by ferry in the near future, and so will be interested in when we'd expect to be able to detect any acquired infection.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,983
    edited July 26
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    From a mathematical perspective, I'm not sure that your theory is true at all.

    It might be if this was a disease with an R of 1.1 and where there was no mitigation efforts, as this would mean that case growth would slow dramatically (and even reverse) as you approached herd immunity. But for a disease with a much higher R level it will likely overshoot, and the come down very sharply.
    According to OWID, R is down from 1.38 to 0.93 in a week on 7 day avg, and they run a day behind.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    England PCR positivity

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    UK deaths

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andy_JS said:

    Kaboom.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25 July):

    Conservative 40% (-2)
    Labour 36% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 19 July

    Redfield and Wilton

    4% is the highest I've seen for Reform UK.
    Reform's advance is only thing that ensures no more lockdowns and no vaccine passports.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 180

    MattW said:

    What are Independent SAGE saying about the numbers?

    I am fairly certain they will seamlessly move past the case numbers and pushing the narrative that schools are clearly too dangerous, we must vaccinate all children immediately and we can't reopen them after the summer holidays because doing so the Johnson variant will become rampant again.
    Fair play to Starmer, he's started to destroy the Tory lead and Boris Johnson's ratings since he started using 'The Johnson Variant.'
    Just retweeted:

    "the “pingdemic” is nothing more than a distraction to divert from the real, underlying issues: the government’s failure to address spiralling infections, and its pursuit of policies that exacerbate this problem".

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1419688622681374721
    Ah good old "Independent" SAGE. Some things never change. 🤦‍♂️
    This article made me see red. He gets vaccine efficacy wrong to say PHE figures show 4-8% of the double vaxxed will be hospitalised. Either he's an idiot or wilfully dishonest (I lean towards the latter given his prominence), but either way it's shocking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,702
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,524
    edited July 26

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Would there have been more of a plateau if it hadn't been for the football? There were signs of levelling off before the super-spreading events.

    Perhaps the fall has also been accelerated by the high humidity last week? There has been lots of speculation about low dewpoint being an issue.

    R0 is surely a myth, anyway. There's no such thing as 'normal behaviour' (or even 'normal weather'), so the required herd immunity % will bounce up and down continuously.

    I'm optimistic this is the end (barring another smaller spike when schools go back - or flesh-eating variant Omega).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,413

    FPT, on the fall-off in cases:

    rkrkrk said:


    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.

    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
    Except its not certain. The herd immunity effect was already there, the fact is 90% of adults had antibodies already. There is no reason to have a plateau if the virus was as I thought just filling in the gaps where there were pools of transmissability due to low vaccine takeup in certain areas or demographics.

    Once the virus has burnt out through them, the virus is running fast into a wall of antibodies. So yes absolutely herd immunity could play into why there is no plateau as herd immunity means the virus is getting strangled off and unable to take off like it could in the past, even without restrictions.
This discussion has been closed.