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Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,022

    Leon said:

    If Britain is now Officially Shit at the Olympics again, then I am going to Officially Boycott it, and watch the Hundred instead


    Take that, Olympics. First it was Covid-19, now someone in Camden, UK is refusing to watch you. Truly a cursed Games. HAHAHAHA

    You should have watched the London bumper cars, I mean Formula E. Lots of action and controversy...
    I’d like to think I was a pretty big motorsport fan, but FE is the most boring and contrived ‘Motor’ sport around.

    Watching the Euro F3 and various GT races from Spa this weekend was much more exciting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - I think Team GB is due a couple of cycles of poor medal performance. I think we'll struggle compared to London and Rio.

    even with all that Lottery money?
    We have been top European nation by a mile at the last three.

    I don't think I could take another 4 years of Euro-Whinge.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,543

    alex_ said:
    After what's happened recently in Germany and Belgium, that looks like a bit of rainwater and not a flood.

    I hope nobody suffered in it. Best wishes for anyone affected.
    Very close call - up to my front door step in Ilford! Receding now, and no rainfall for now, fortunately!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - I think Team GB is due a couple of cycles of poor medal performance. I think we'll struggle compared to London and Rio.

    even with all that Lottery money?
    We have been top European nation by a mile at the last three.

    I don't think I could take another 4 years of Euro-Whinge.
    Maybe this will be the one when the swimmers finally come good...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    My personal view is that Starmer will do a lot better than people think, by virtue of the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn - and because he's quietly putting into place a lot of people and processes that will lead to good outcomes.

    260 seats is the worst I think he will do, which if true probably isn't enough to be PM but will mean his successor will be able to form a government with a much smaller swing. I think if he's lucky and the Lib Dems have a good night, 270+ would probably be enough to form a government and push through PR (which is frankly what I want at this point).

    I also believe his one unique selling point is his appeal to Lib Dem voters, which is something few Labour leaders have done recently. We've seen now on two occasions, tactical voting.

    260 seats might be enough - assuming the SNP have circa 40 with the LDs on circa 15. Plaid plus Green plus SDLP /Alliance should be 6 or so in total. 322 non-Tory MPs - before even considering the DUP - could well be sufficient to block a minority Tory government.
    How many are you expecting Plaid to get?
    3 or 4.
    Three is possible but it relies on the Labour and Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion coalescing around them in the new seat. Not by any means impossible, but nor is it highly probable. I do not see how they hold Carmarthenshire. They held by a very tight margin this time and their one incumbent has had all sorts of scandals around him.

    I think two is a baseline - because I am confident they will hold their two in the North - but anything over that is a bonus.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,130
    felix said:

    Don't let anyone tell you it's all open and restriction free in the EU:
    EDIT: Nivel 1 is the lowest level of restrictions - 2/3/4 are something else!


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,705
    edited July 2021
    pigeon said:

    felix said:

    Don't let anyone tell you it's all open and restriction free in the EU:
    EDIT: Nivel 1 is the lowest level of restrictions - 2/3/4 are something else!


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.
    I linked to the Singapore chart on how many people can meet one another the other day.....rule of 6 it ain't.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    pigeon said:

    felix said:

    Don't let anyone tell you it's all open and restriction free in the EU:
    EDIT: Nivel 1 is the lowest level of restrictions - 2/3/4 are something else!


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.
    Almost as if this is a complicated novel situation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,705

    pigeon said:

    felix said:

    Don't let anyone tell you it's all open and restriction free in the EU:
    EDIT: Nivel 1 is the lowest level of restrictions - 2/3/4 are something else!


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.
    Almost as if this is a complicated novel situation.
    And an ever changing one....
  • https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1418532995988873218

    I strongly opposed it at the time but I am going to hold my hands up and say we would have been much better off leaving on the deal May negotiated. And Labour should have voted for it.

    I think in years to come, it will be come abundantly clear that May's deal was the best deal we could have ever possibly had, apart from remaining.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,485
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    It’s interesting that most of the names you highlighted (plus burnham) are so long I’m the tooth. Benn is 67. Cooper (and Burnham) were in Brown’s Cabinet. Kinnock and Jarvis are younger but neither have had the opportunity to really demonstrate why they would be good leaders yet.

    (As an aside how come Jarvis can be a mayor and MP but Burnham can’t?)
    Police Commissioner roles I believe, and lack of one in Jarvis and Johnson's case.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,022

    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - I think Team GB is due a couple of cycles of poor medal performance. I think we'll struggle compared to London and Rio.

    We will definitely be well down on Rio and London, that is a given. Top 6 in the medal tables would still be very good, top 10 a minimum requirement. Id guess 7th.
    Yeah that's a given, but the reasons for the expected fall are going to need for team GB to go back to the same ruthless focus on our medal factories rather than this new "the athletes have feelings" approach that will just result in funding being wasted on low prospect categories.
    Yes - the ruthless approach worked. There was, for example, alot of criticism of the use of scientific evaluation to see if people had the body shape/structure to reach the top in their chosen sport. And of asking people to move sports to ones they were more suited for......
    Shades of the former DDR there.

    No - their stuff was extremely unscientific, in many ways.

    The fact that certain body shapes and muscle distributions are required for success at the top level in various sports is documented. As are the reasons *why* this works.

    UK sport used lottery funding to give top athletes a full "work up" - which, in a number of cases found that they were actually much better suited to another sport. Nearly no-one has tried all the sports - many ended up in their chosen sport by a complete accident.
    There was the great story of the lady who won the tea-tray sliding at the Winters a couple of Games ago. She was a 400m runner, but probably wasn’t going to be quite good enough to make the team. The winter sports coaches were on the lookout for transferable skills and picked her up. Two years later, Gold Medal!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,003
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone noticed how it was almost compulsory to be positive about the 2012 London Olympics, and it's almost compulsory to be negative about this one in Tokyo.

    I don't think compulsory means what you think it means.
    Also there was loads of negativity in the first week of 2012 when medal after expected medal failed to materialise...
    There was also a great fear that London's transport infrastructure would not be able to cope. Armies of volunteers were deployed, and bus drivers shipped in from around the country. Many companies, including my multinational employer, instituted WFH. Dubious claim to fame: my mate drove the bus that took Bill Gates to watch the Olympic wiff-waff. As it turned out, London's tubes and buses were well up to the task and the volunteers were mightily bored.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,904
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    If Britain is now Officially Shit at the Olympics again, then I am going to Officially Boycott it, and watch the Hundred instead


    Take that, Olympics. First it was Covid-19, now someone in Camden, UK is refusing to watch you. Truly a cursed Games. HAHAHAHA

    You should have watched the London bumper cars, I mean Formula E. Lots of action and controversy...
    I’d like to think I was a pretty big motorsport fan, but FE is the most boring and contrived ‘Motor’ sport around.

    Watching the Euro F3 and various GT races from Spa this weekend was much more exciting.
    Not sure why you've put 'Motor' in inverted commas like that. Formula E cars have motors. They don't have engines, but they don't call it 'Enginesport'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,678
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    My personal view is that Starmer will do a lot better than people think, by virtue of the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn - and because he's quietly putting into place a lot of people and processes that will lead to good outcomes.

    260 seats is the worst I think he will do, which if true probably isn't enough to be PM but will mean his successor will be able to form a government with a much smaller swing. I think if he's lucky and the Lib Dems have a good night, 270+ would probably be enough to form a government and push through PR (which is frankly what I want at this point).

    I also believe his one unique selling point is his appeal to Lib Dem voters, which is something few Labour leaders have done recently. We've seen now on two occasions, tactical voting.

    260 seats might be enough - assuming the SNP have circa 40 with the LDs on circa 15. Plaid plus Green plus SDLP /Alliance should be 6 or so in total. 322 non-Tory MPs - before even considering the DUP - could well be sufficient to block a minority Tory government.
    How many are you expecting Plaid to get?
    3 or 4.
    Three is possible but it relies on the Labour and Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion coalescing around them in the new seat. Not by any means impossible, but nor is it highly probable. I do not see how they hold Carmarthenshire. They held by a very tight margin this time and their one incumbent has had all sorts of scandals around him.

    I think two is a baseline - because I am confident they will hold their two in the North - but anything over that is a bonus.
    How about a new candidate in Carmarthenshire? Not that I know anything about it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,904

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone noticed how it was almost compulsory to be positive about the 2012 London Olympics, and it's almost compulsory to be negative about this one in Tokyo.

    I don't think compulsory means what you think it means.
    Also there was loads of negativity in the first week of 2012 when medal after expected medal failed to materialise...
    I think it was only a couple of days before gold was struck. Although they were weighted more to the later days. Golds are nice but the best thing about London 2012 was the general atmosphere - Contrast with the Euro 2020 final . Also London 2012 had a great mockumentary (2012) which anyone who has ever been involved in a big project could relate to with absurd marketing proposals , over worrying about little things and missing a few elephants in the room.it also had Lord Grantham in
    If you liked 2012 you'd also really enjoy The Games, the Australian mockumentary from 2000 which 2012 was ripped off, erm, based on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,940

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    My personal view is that Starmer will do a lot better than people think, by virtue of the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn - and because he's quietly putting into place a lot of people and processes that will lead to good outcomes.

    260 seats is the worst I think he will do, which if true probably isn't enough to be PM but will mean his successor will be able to form a government with a much smaller swing. I think if he's lucky and the Lib Dems have a good night, 270+ would probably be enough to form a government and push through PR (which is frankly what I want at this point).

    I also believe his one unique selling point is his appeal to Lib Dem voters, which is something few Labour leaders have done recently. We've seen now on two occasions, tactical voting.

    260 seats might be enough - assuming the SNP have circa 40 with the LDs on circa 15. Plaid plus Green plus SDLP /Alliance should be 6 or so in total. 322 non-Tory MPs - before even considering the DUP - could well be sufficient to block a minority Tory government.
    How many are you expecting Plaid to get?
    3 or 4.
    Three is possible but it relies on the Labour and Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion coalescing around them in the new seat. Not by any means impossible, but nor is it highly probable. I do not see how they hold Carmarthenshire. They held by a very tight margin this time and their one incumbent has had all sorts of scandals around him.

    I think two is a baseline - because I am confident they will hold their two in the North - but anything over that is a bonus.
    How about a new candidate in Carmarthenshire? Not that I know anything about it.
    A refreshing admission on PB. Very commendable (and fully in the spirit of seeking illumination, too).
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,904
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - I think Team GB is due a couple of cycles of poor medal performance. I think we'll struggle compared to London and Rio.

    even with all that Lottery money?
    We have been top European nation by a mile at the last three.

    I don't think I could take another 4 years of Euro-Whinge.
    I agree, but I also agree that we should expect to fall back. Hosts always get a boost in performance and that tends to continue at the next games. The games one after almost always shows a drop off.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,326
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone noticed how it was almost compulsory to be positive about the 2012 London Olympics, and it's almost compulsory to be negative about this one in Tokyo.

    I don't think compulsory means what you think it means.
    Also there was loads of negativity in the first week of 2012 when medal after expected medal failed to materialise...
    Plus moaning about the opening ceremony, and all the empty seats on show. It was fun though being in the crowd. Paris 2024 might be nice as should be a more civilised hour to watch.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    edited July 2021

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    My personal view is that Starmer will do a lot better than people think, by virtue of the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn - and because he's quietly putting into place a lot of people and processes that will lead to good outcomes.

    260 seats is the worst I think he will do, which if true probably isn't enough to be PM but will mean his successor will be able to form a government with a much smaller swing. I think if he's lucky and the Lib Dems have a good night, 270+ would probably be enough to form a government and push through PR (which is frankly what I want at this point).

    I also believe his one unique selling point is his appeal to Lib Dem voters, which is something few Labour leaders have done recently. We've seen now on two occasions, tactical voting.

    260 seats might be enough - assuming the SNP have circa 40 with the LDs on circa 15. Plaid plus Green plus SDLP /Alliance should be 6 or so in total. 322 non-Tory MPs - before even considering the DUP - could well be sufficient to block a minority Tory government.
    How many are you expecting Plaid to get?
    3 or 4.
    Three is possible but it relies on the Labour and Lib Dem vote in Ceredigion coalescing around them in the new seat. Not by any means impossible, but nor is it highly probable. I do not see how they hold Carmarthenshire. They held by a very tight margin this time and their one incumbent has had all sorts of scandals around him.

    I think two is a baseline - because I am confident they will hold their two in the North - but anything over that is a bonus.
    How about a new candidate in Carmarthenshire? Not that I know anything about it.
    But that’s the point. Assuming Jonathan Edwards is dropped, they would likely be facing an incumbent MP in Simon Hart with a new candidate (unless Hart went for Pembrokeshire, which is where he actually lives).

    I think Carmarthenshire could be quite a tight three way marginal but the way the figures fall doesn’t look helpful for Plaid. Their best chance of winning the seat would probably be for Adam Price to make a Westminster comeback, but that would cause issues of its own.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1418532995988873218

    I strongly opposed it at the time but I am going to hold my hands up and say we would have been much better off leaving on the deal May negotiated. And Labour should have voted for it.

    I think in years to come, it will be come abundantly clear that May's deal was the best deal we could have ever possibly had, apart from remaining.

    Thank goodness it was rejected. :)

    A whole series of own goals by Remainers allowing us get out properly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,326
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    pigeon said:


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.

    Every country has its own set of rules and regulations.

    I don't quite know the point @Felix is trying to make - well, I do, it's the usual cheap anti-EU jibe.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,422
    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    edited July 2021
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    stodge said:

    pigeon said:


    A reminder that long lists of complicated rules (which, presumably, also change at unpredictable and often frequent intervals) are not an affliction solely of the UK.

    Every country has its own set of rules and regulations.

    I don't quite know the point @Felix is trying to make - well, I do, it's the usual cheap anti-EU jibe.
    Interesting you see it like that. I saw it as "Just the same, here"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    And a gate and a small potting shed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,326

    https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1418532995988873218

    I strongly opposed it at the time but I am going to hold my hands up and say we would have been much better off leaving on the deal May negotiated. And Labour should have voted for it.

    I think in years to come, it will be come abundantly clear that May's deal was the best deal we could have ever possibly had, apart from remaining.

    Thank goodness it was rejected. :)

    A whole series of own goals by Remainers allowing us get out properly.
    Nah, as a Remainer, I still think May's a pisspoor deal, though not as incompetent one as Johnson's Oven Ready Half Baked Deal.

    I think that the pendulum will swing back to closer EU alignment with the next non Tory government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,055
    This is the FIFTH day in a row that Covid cases have fallen 🤞🏼 https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1419338150162354176/photo/1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,130
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    Besides which, being an MP is a well-paid occupation, the next GE might not be until 2024, AFAIK there's nothing at all to compel an MP to do the job in exchange for their remuneration (hence the fact that SF can get away with never taking their seats,) and I believe there are also substantial additional severance payments available for sitting MPs who stand for re-election and lose. There's no incentive for someone in that situation to budge at all.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    A huge tragedy in Loch Lomond today with three members of the same family drowned it seems. I think the last few weeks has seen about 30 swimmers drown from open water swimming. The last time i did open water swimming was a couple of years ago and it is so refreshing and the feeling of being at one with nature and free is intense. However it is dangerous to even good swimmers due to cold water shock (which is ironically more dangerous when the air temperature is high ). Not sure what we should do but surprised it has not been picked up a little more in the media
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,342

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    Storm in a tea cup, but he's apologised so that's the end of it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829

    A huge tragedy in Loch Lomond today with three members of the same family drowned it seems. I think the last few weeks has seen about 30 swimmers drown from open water swimming. The last time i did open water swimming was a couple of years ago and it is so refreshing and the feeling of being at one with nature and free is intense. However it is dangerous to even good swimmers due to cold water shock (which is ironically more dangerous when the air temperature is high ). Not sure what we should do but surprised it has not been picked up a little more in the media

    Last time I went wild water swimming was six years ago in Loch Ness, off Foyers.

    But there was a lifeguard watching.

    It sounds as though, tragically, these people picked a place where there wasn’t one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Do you not think a lot of the "disinformation" has come from some of our more prominent newspaper and broadcasting organisations?

    I'm sure those supportive of Government policy would have liked a more "positive" message but we live in a free society. All anyone can or should do is seek to provide information (rather than absurd spreadsheets, graphs and statistics aimed more at pushing a message than providing facts).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    Keep going!


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661

    A huge tragedy in Loch Lomond today with three members of the same family drowned it seems. I think the last few weeks has seen about 30 swimmers drown from open water swimming. The last time i did open water swimming was a couple of years ago and it is so refreshing and the feeling of being at one with nature and free is intense. However it is dangerous to even good swimmers due to cold water shock (which is ironically more dangerous when the air temperature is high ). Not sure what we should do but surprised it has not been picked up a little more in the media

    A problem is that many people don't know about the dangers of cold water. And laugh off attempts to mitigate it.

    A few years ago, when I was diving in the Red Sea, a full half of the dive group refused to use wetsuits. Because not cool looking...

    They certainly looked cool when they were staggering about the dive boat in the early stages of hypothermia........
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That's just a slight variation in wording for the same meaning. Being cowed is to cower!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,342
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
    I didn't think it was that - suspension from the House is not prosecution or conviction, but he was suspended for long enough to be a recall criteria...but the decision to recommend suspension came from a body other than the Committee on Standards, which was not mentioned in the Recall Act (because the body in question did not exist at the time).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,694
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
    I've always had you down as a bit of a lemon :)
  • alednamalednam Posts: 159
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Any sentence (needn't be 12 months) is enough. BUT she pleads not-guilty, so is likely to appeal, and constitutents aren't invited to petition for a recall until all appeals have been exhausted.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    edited July 2021
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That's just a slight variation in wording for the same meaning. Being cowed is to cower!
    Yes indeed. But that's the point. When people are looking to find an excuse to take offence at something that isn't really offensive, what the words mean is better than what they sound like. And the latter just sounds better. Somehow i feel that "cower" puts the focus on the individual cowering. People associate it (wrongly) with being cowardly. Not being "cowed" seems to put the focus on the virus that is no longer as scary as it was.

    I don't know, all gibberish!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,382

    https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1418532995988873218

    I strongly opposed it at the time but I am going to hold my hands up and say we would have been much better off leaving on the deal May negotiated. And Labour should have voted for it.

    I think in years to come, it will be come abundantly clear that May's deal was the best deal we could have ever possibly had, apart from remaining.

    And the usual reminder that we are were we are because remainders tried to overturn the vote, rather than make the best of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That's just a slight variation in wording for the same meaning. Being cowed is to cower!
    Yes indeed. But that's the point. When people are looking to find an excuse to take offence at something that isn't really offensive, what the words mean is better than what they sound like. And the latter just sounds better.
    The problem here is the offence takers. They've turned it into an art form. Better to just tell them to shut it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    England PCR positivity

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic - I think Team GB is due a couple of cycles of poor medal performance. I think we'll struggle compared to London and Rio.

    We will definitely be well down on Rio and London, that is a given. Top 6 in the medal tables would still be very good, top 10 a minimum requirement. Id guess 7th.
    Yeah that's a given, but the reasons for the expected fall are going to need for team GB to go back to the same ruthless focus on our medal factories rather than this new "the athletes have feelings" approach that will just result in funding being wasted on low prospect categories.
    Yes - the ruthless approach worked. There was, for example, alot of criticism of the use of scientific evaluation to see if people had the body shape/structure to reach the top in their chosen sport. And of asking people to move sports to ones they were more suited for......
    Shades of the former DDR there.

    No - their stuff was extremely unscientific, in many ways.

    The fact that certain body shapes and muscle distributions are required for success at the top level in various sports is documented. As are the reasons *why* this works.

    UK sport used lottery funding to give top athletes a full "work up" - which, in a number of cases found that they were actually much better suited to another sport. Nearly no-one has tried all the sports - many ended up in their chosen sport by a complete accident.
    There was the great story of the lady who won the tea-tray sliding at the Winters a couple of Games ago. She was a 400m runner, but probably wasn’t going to be quite good enough to make the team. The winter sports coaches were on the lookout for transferable skills and picked her up. Two years later, Gold Medal!
    The Scottish curlers - that was the true spirit of the Games right there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK Hospitals

    image
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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,694

    Keep going!


    Probably a false dawn, but even a small decline does break the pattern of relentless increase in bad news.

    One day we may have a statue of Chris Whitty, where no doubt Estate Agents will flock.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,842
    Quincel said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone noticed how it was almost compulsory to be positive about the 2012 London Olympics, and it's almost compulsory to be negative about this one in Tokyo.

    I don't think compulsory means what you think it means.
    Also there was loads of negativity in the first week of 2012 when medal after expected medal failed to materialise...
    Yes, a great example of hindsight bias. Many people have completely forgotten the negativity in advance of the games and for the first bit.
    nonsense like this:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-19028574

    not all fringe figure:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/feb/28/olympics-london-union-strike-threat

    The moment Aiden Burley tweeted, all forgotten. Tears in the rain.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK deaths

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    UK R

    image
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    7 day rate confirmed to have dropped.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
    I didn't think it was that - suspension from the House is not prosecution or conviction, but he was suspended for long enough to be a recall criteria...but the decision to recommend suspension came from a body other than the Committee on Standards, which was not mentioned in the Recall Act (because the body in question did not exist at the time).
    Right, I see what Philip means. Yes, that is a very silly technicality and tells me the legislation is badly worded.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    Age related data

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,022
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Do you not think a lot of the "disinformation" has come from some of our more prominent newspaper and broadcasting organisations?

    I'm sure those supportive of Government policy would have liked a more "positive" message but we live in a free society. All anyone can or should do is seek to provide information (rather than absurd spreadsheets, graphs and statistics aimed more at pushing a message than providing facts).
    Too many in the news media seem to want to be making the news, rather than reporting on it.

    The “Outrage” at Javid’s statement was almost all from journalists on Twitter. They all need to get off social media and start talking to people in the real world.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,385
    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    Omnium said:

    Keep going!


    Probably a false dawn, but even a small decline does break the pattern of relentless increase in bad news.

    One day we may have a statue of Chris Whitty, where no doubt Estate Agents will flock.
    And any anti-maskers who’ve been caught short?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    Case rate changes

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.

    I wonder how many schoolchildren have?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.

    It would be interesting to see the number for non-adults....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642
    alex_ said:

    7 day rate confirmed to have dropped.

    A quick calculation says current R ~ 0.85, which if sustained will have cases well down within a few weeks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,342
    edited July 2021
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
    I didn't think it was that - suspension from the House is not prosecution or conviction, but he was suspended for long enough to be a recall criteria...but the decision to recommend suspension came from a body other than the Committee on Standards, which was not mentioned in the Recall Act (because the body in question did not exist at the time).
    Right, I see what Philip means. Yes, that is a very silly technicality and tells me the legislation is badly worded.
    It gets worse - a quick google shows a workaround should have been agreed to close the loophole, without needing to change legislation, but a game of one-upmanship meant it failed.

    Parties on both sides of the house want to close the loophole and house leader Jacob Rees-Mogg tabled a motion to that effect to the Commons on Tuesday.

    But the bid failed after Labour tabled a rival amendment attempting to make it retrospective, meaning it would apply to Mr Roberts.

    Parliamentary procedure meant that the Labour amendment was considered to be in itself an objection to Mr Rees-Mogg's changes, stopping them from being agreed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57900798

    Just seems stupid - everyone is angry about Roberts escaping due punishment, but making laws and rules retrospective should not be done lightly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,385

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    +1
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    7 day rate confirmed to have dropped.

    A quick calculation says current R ~ 0.85, which if sustained will have cases well down within a few weeks.
    Based on reported numbers presumably? If the trend in the positive tests is reflected in ONS numbers, would we expect it to show through this week, or next?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
    I've always had you down as a bit of a lemon :)
    If only. A greenhouse without heating and in winter. Low point. But it's amazing what you can shrug off when you're young.

    And I missed one. Battersea in a council high rise. That goes towards the bottom.

    Such a vast and varied city, London is. So many people, so many stories.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1418532995988873218

    I strongly opposed it at the time but I am going to hold my hands up and say we would have been much better off leaving on the deal May negotiated. And Labour should have voted for it.

    I think in years to come, it will be come abundantly clear that May's deal was the best deal we could have ever possibly had, apart from remaining.

    Thank goodness it was rejected. :)

    A whole series of own goals by Remainers allowing us get out properly.
    Nah, as a Remainer, I still think May's a pisspoor deal, though not as incompetent one as Johnson's Oven Ready Half Baked Deal.

    I think that the pendulum will swing back to closer EU alignment with the next non Tory government.
    Whicn is why there is a rush to get other trade deals to make close EU alignment an impossible task
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Interesting map

    https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1419341813836664835/photo/1

    France shows up quite clearly
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Do you not think a lot of the "disinformation" has come from some of our more prominent newspaper and broadcasting organisations?

    I'm sure those supportive of Government policy would have liked a more "positive" message but we live in a free society. All anyone can or should do is seek to provide information (rather than absurd spreadsheets, graphs and statistics aimed more at pushing a message than providing facts).
    Of course it has, look at Peston ramping the idea of reinfection despite having literally no evidence. The journalists seem to want the government to fail just so they have a story, even if it means more death and more misery.

    As I said earlier today, the situation warrants Whitty and other leading scientists to call them out and force retractions on the scare stories. It's unacceptable, IMO, that prominent journalists are simply able to make up the news and pass it off as fact.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,382
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.

    Running into a wall of antibodies...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,471
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That ignores the fact that he's a massive Ayn Rand fan and he's quoting. I think he thought it would be a positive.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.

    as opposed to Australia where probably 15% have - ie those vaccinated. Generally the Uk has been right to do what it has done with the focus on vaccination not lockdown .Zero covid is a crap decision and Australia and NZ will have this for far more than we do (or at least the restrictions). One Australian medical advisor was telling aussies to not speak to their neighbours the other day FFS
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,642
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    7 day rate confirmed to have dropped.

    A quick calculation says current R ~ 0.85, which if sustained will have cases well down within a few weeks.
    Based on reported numbers presumably? If the trend in the positive tests is reflected in ONS numbers, would we expect it to show through this week, or next?
    Next week. The ONS numbers run two weeks behind.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,382
    Looking long and hard for iSAGE twitter posts happy about the cases falling...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Do you not think a lot of the "disinformation" has come from some of our more prominent newspaper and broadcasting organisations?

    I'm sure those supportive of Government policy would have liked a more "positive" message but we live in a free society. All anyone can or should do is seek to provide information (rather than absurd spreadsheets, graphs and statistics aimed more at pushing a message than providing facts).
    Of course it has, look at Peston ramping the idea of reinfection despite having literally no evidence. The journalists seem to want the government to fail just so they have a story, even if it means more death and more misery.

    As I said earlier today, the situation warrants Whitty and other leading scientists to call them out and force retractions on the scare stories. It's unacceptable, IMO, that prominent journalists are simply able to make up the news and pass it off as fact.
    I remember Norman Tebbit absolutely monstering an interviewer - pointing out that all her previous statements on the issue were wrong etc.

    Apparently a politician Paxo'ing an interviewer was "bullying" and a "threat to press freedom", according to the rest of the press at the time....
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,248
    mwadams said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That ignores the fact that he's a massive Ayn Rand fan and he's quoting. I think he thought it would be a positive.
    Perhaps he should have gone with "we will not go quietly into the night..." ;)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,385

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: 92% of adults have antibodies.

    It would be interesting to see the number for non-adults....
    I would imagine the figure is quite high - My daughter currently has it (hence me posting now when normally out and about) and all her friends have it or just had it .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,342
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That's just a slight variation in wording for the same meaning. Being cowed is to cower!
    Yes indeed. But that's the point. When people are looking to find an excuse to take offence at something that isn't really offensive, what the words mean is better than what they sound like. And the latter just sounds better.
    The problem here is the offence takers. They've turned it into an art form. Better to just tell them to shut it.
    Leaving aside this incident, since he's already apologised, it does seem notable that someone taking offence seems to be all takes a lot of the time, not whether the offence taken in reasonable.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 7,963
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
    Telegraph Hill
    Oval
    Brockley
    Whitechapel
    Dalston.

    Had some great parties in the flats in Dalston and Whitechapel, mind.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,326
    edited July 2021
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
    I always wondered whether you were a plant. 🤔

    For me:

    Wimbledon Hill
    Tooting Broadway.

    Not a hard one to do. My room in Tooting was in a shared house that froze in wintertime, and the pipes froze for weeks at a time. One of my housemates was on the game, though I was rather too niaive to spot it at the time. I just thought she got a lot of late night visitors.
  • Wandsworth! Lovely place, just near where I am now! :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,694
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Well my ranking of London places I have lived in are

    Isle of Dogs
    Bow
    Edgware Road (Paddington area)
    Acton
    Muswell Hill
    Ealing
    Highgate

    Basically in my twenties the scruffier the better I enjoyed it!

    Interesting. Mine top to bottom are probably.

    South Hampstead (Fleet Road)
    City - nr Finsbury Square
    Chiswick - Grove Park
    Chiswick nr High Road
    Clapham
    Walthamstow nr Black Horse Road
    I'd rank mine as follows:

    South Ken
    Hampstead
    Earls Court
    Barnes
    Bloomsbury
    Penge
    Ealing
    Wandsworth Common
    Greenwich
    Maida Vale
    Isle of Dogs
    Wembley

    Wembley is bottom because I lived in a greenhouse there.
    I've always had you down as a bit of a lemon :)
    If only. A greenhouse without heating and in winter. Low point. But it's amazing what you can shrug off when you're young.

    And I missed one. Battersea in a council high rise. That goes towards the bottom.

    Such a vast and varied city, London is. So many people, so many stories.
    I've not been so adventurous. A short list for me and Maida Vale (Little Venice bit) would be top. Interesting you have it so low.

    Great hardship is far better than dismal trying. In my overseas travels I've always preferred the standpipe outside a shed arrangement to the crappy hotel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829

    Looking long and hard for iSAGE twitter posts happy about the cases falling...

    That sounds like a singularly unprofitable pastime.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,022
    Floater said:
    LOL. From the Ryan Giggs school of how to treat wives and girlfriends.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,382
    ydoethur said:

    Looking long and hard for iSAGE twitter posts happy about the cases falling...

    That sounds like a singularly unprofitable pastime.
    Not much on telly while the food goes down😄
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,485
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
    I didn't think it was that - suspension from the House is not prosecution or conviction, but he was suspended for long enough to be a recall criteria...but the decision to recommend suspension came from a body other than the Committee on Standards, which was not mentioned in the Recall Act (because the body in question did not exist at the time).
    Right, I see what Philip means. Yes, that is a very silly technicality and tells me the legislation is badly worded.
    It gets worse - a quick google shows a workaround should have been agreed to close the loophole, without needing to change legislation, but a game of one-upmanship meant it failed.

    Parties on both sides of the house want to close the loophole and house leader Jacob Rees-Mogg tabled a motion to that effect to the Commons on Tuesday.

    But the bid failed after Labour tabled a rival amendment attempting to make it retrospective, meaning it would apply to Mr Roberts.

    Parliamentary procedure meant that the Labour amendment was considered to be in itself an objection to Mr Rees-Mogg's changes, stopping them from being agreed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57900798

    Just seems stupid - everyone is angry about Roberts escaping due punishment, but making laws and rules retrospective should not be done lightly.
    Roberts has got away lightly compared to the autistic guy in Hallam from the last Parliament who was pilloried and ridiculed for years on here ( I am not saying it wasn't totally deserved). Roberts on the other hand has got by more or less unscathed by the social commentariat. If the Conservatives are as ashamed of Roberts as they claim, and remember, they are sitting on an 80 seat majority, maybe he should be sacrificed for the common good.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,694
    mwadams said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That ignores the fact that he's a massive Ayn Rand fan and he's quoting. I think he thought it would be a positive.
    Is being an Ayn Rand fan a negative? I have an unopened copy of Atlas Shrugged about to be opened.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,385
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    Right at the beginning of the pandemic… I was told by a very senior figure that there was “a lot of worry” the Queen could be killed by Covid, with incalculable effects on public morale and trust in government.

    While elaborate precautions were put in motion to safeguard the Queen, someone in government did not get the memo. Or he did receive the memo, but couldn’t be arsed to read it. In mid-March of last year, when staff at Number 10 were already falling ill as the virus rampaged around that rabbit-warren building, Boris Johnson told aides that he was going to carry on with his weekly in-person audience with the Queen. He answered protests that this was sensationally reckless by responding: “That’s what I do every Wednesday. Sod this, I’m gonna go and see her.”

    In the initial phase of this crisis, it was “sod this” to attending meetings Cobra because he was too busy dealing with his divorce. Then it was “sod this” to agreeing to a timely first lockdown because that involved accepting how serious the situation had become. Last autumn, it was “sod this” to the scientists when they warned that the disease would accelerate wildly out of control if he didn’t impose a second lockdown. And “sod this” to acting in time to save lives because he had made a baseless promise that the nation could revel through a “normal Christmas”. It was also “sod this” to the fatality rate because the data suggested to him that the median age of those claimed by Covid was 82. “That is above life expectancy,” he flippantly declared. “So get Covid and live longer.” He went on to say: “I no longer buy all this NHS overwhelmed stuff.” That’s something Number 10 can’t deny because it was recorded in WhatsApp messages.

    Mr Johnson feared a monstering at the hands of the rightwing media and a big revolt by Tory MPs, a chunk of whom turned up in the chamber of the Commons ostentatiously refusing to wear masks. On Mr Cummings’ account, the prime minister regards the Daily Telegraph, for which he once wrote a highly remunerative column, as “my real boss”. That puts everyone else in their place. It is to this minority faction of opinion, not to parliament or the public, that he sees himself as answerable.

    Few can claim to have got everything right about this pandemic, but none has been more consistently wrong than the threat-deniers, lockdown-haters, mask-defiers and let-it-rippers. Yet this is the one group to whom the prime minister is never capable of saying “sod this”.

    All will be forgiven as far as Johnson is concerned if cases drop to very low levels in the next few weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,829

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    No dissent from me. Only ill health is likely to stop him, John Smith style. He looks pretty healthy to me, certainly a lot healthier than Smith did.

    Its team Starmer that is the problem in terms of succession. There is no standout candidate AFAIC that would be better the current incumbent.

    Certainly not in Parliament. You have to be careful as you get older that your memories do not get tinged with nostalgia but I cannot recall a time when so few politicians of any party had any credibility or standing with the public as they do right now and Labour seem particularly badly affected although the Tories are far from immune. Starmer is as good as it gets in Labour.
    Now, you've drawn me into a Starmer is crap post.

    There are plenty of able Labour MPs , who are available, Benn, Kinnock, Cooper, Jarvis and plenty of others, plus people outside Parliament. Sadly after Corbyn there are also a raft of former quality Labour Politicians who are also outside the Party. And no I am not referring directly to Corbyn.

    The key problem of why, for good or bad, we are lumbered with Starmer is the vague, but worrying prospect that he could be replaced by a moron like Burgon or RLB.
    I think that there are few bright young things on the Labour benches is a feature of the massive defeat under Corbyn. It means that there are fewer new faces, and only those in the safest seats remain, therefore old timers or people like the useless Webbe in Leicester West, parachuted in under Corbyn following the purges.

    I think the next Leader will be Nandy or Rayner, or someone else elected after 2010.
    Leicester East, and Webbe replaced Keith Vaz who was not victim of a Corbynite purge, even if Webbe was parachuted in. Leicester West is Liz Kendall, who is just about hanging on.
    Yes, of course. The infighting in Leicester East Labour Party is such that in the event of a by election they may well lose a lot more of the majority. For all his faults Vaz was good at cultivating his constituency vote.

    Liz Kendall should be alright in LWest, as she held on in 2019, though the new boundaries are probably not going to help her.
    Webbe is the next one (or next one but one) up before the beak. May be available soon,
    .A 12 month sentence is required for a sacking I think. I don't think that severe an offense, and she is sitting as an independent at present. I don't think she would just resign out of shame, as she seems to have quite a brass neck.
    I think that it’s twelve months to be disbarred from the House, a conviction with a lesser sentence triggers a recall petition (see Brecon and Radnor).

    And I think she would be recalled. It’s clear she’s very unpopular in her seat.
    Hopefully she doesn't avoid a recall by a technicality, like that creepy ex-Tory in Wales.
    The technicality AIR (please correct me if I’m wrong) was that he was disciplined not prosecuted and convicted.

    Although I agree that recall should be an option for disciplinary offences.
    I didn't think it was that - suspension from the House is not prosecution or conviction, but he was suspended for long enough to be a recall criteria...but the decision to recommend suspension came from a body other than the Committee on Standards, which was not mentioned in the Recall Act (because the body in question did not exist at the time).
    Right, I see what Philip means. Yes, that is a very silly technicality and tells me the legislation is badly worded.
    It gets worse - a quick google shows a workaround should have been agreed to close the loophole, without needing to change legislation, but a game of one-upmanship meant it failed.

    Parties on both sides of the house want to close the loophole and house leader Jacob Rees-Mogg tabled a motion to that effect to the Commons on Tuesday.

    But the bid failed after Labour tabled a rival amendment attempting to make it retrospective, meaning it would apply to Mr Roberts.

    Parliamentary procedure meant that the Labour amendment was considered to be in itself an objection to Mr Rees-Mogg's changes, stopping them from being agreed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57900798

    Just seems stupid - everyone is angry about Roberts escaping due punishment, but making laws and rules retrospective should not be done lightly.
    Roberts has got away lightly compared to the autistic guy in Hallam from the last Parliament who was pilloried and ridiculed for years on here ( I am not saying it wasn't totally deserved). Roberts on the other hand has got by more or less unscathed by the social commentariat. If the Conservatives are as ashamed of Roberts as they claim, and remember, they are sitting on an 80 seat majority, maybe he should be sacrificed for the common good.
    Which would mean introducing retrospective legislation.

    O’Mara of course there were many issues - violence, misogyny, laziness, dishonesty and incompetence.

    I’m not sure how far that applies to Roberts.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    Omnium said:

    mwadams said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just read what Javid said. I am not a fan of the government, but for goodness sake, this looks like people trying to take offence!

    It definitely was and the truth of what he said hasn't changed. People just don't want to hear it.
    Agree, but as i said last night i think if he had said "we shouldn't be cowed by it" as opposed to "people shouldn't cower from it", i doubt it would have been an issue.

    Maybe.

    I think that's probably what was meant (someone will probably argue that it means the same thing!)
    That ignores the fact that he's a massive Ayn Rand fan and he's quoting. I think he thought it would be a positive.
    Is being an Ayn Rand fan a negative? I have an unopened copy of Atlas Shrugged about to be opened.
    She is of interest, though like many "genius" authors, an editor cutting about 80% of the material would have been an advantage....
This discussion has been closed.