I like having Cricket to watch, but why it needed new gimmicks I'm not sure (and if aimed at non-cricket fans what is the draw compared to other formats).
I'm more interested in how the statisticians will record things.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
He also has a whole cadre of young female Corbynista admirers IIRC. All these lefty friends conform to every Daily Mail stereotype and can be relied upon to say the kind of idiotic thing that I have never heard anybody say in real life. These people are 100% not a figment of his over-active imagination.
I dunno. My Albanian cabbie told me that he heard the same story from a passenger just the other day.
I am aware that no one on this site will ever believe me, but the Albanian cabbie story was 100% true.
Albanian, ex pro footballer, moved to Italy then to the UK
Not a single lie in that there anecdote. But hey ho!
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
This is a joke, right?
The labour market statistics in the developed world (whether the US, the UK, Spain or pretty much anywhere else) show rapidly tightening markets. The situations vacant figure in some countries is running at all time high.
In my job, trying to hire either tech people in London, or more general hires in the US, salaries are going through the roof. We tried to hire a bookkeeper, who was earnings $45k, so we offered her $55k. Her employer countered, we recountererd, and she ended up staying in her job for $85k.
I like having Cricket to watch, but why it needed new gimmicks I'm not sure (and if aimed at non-cricket fans what is the draw compared to other formats).
I'm more interested in how the statisticians will record things.
T20 is excellent entertainment if you want a super-short form of the game. They could have added all the fireworks and extra-colourful pyjamas to that
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
He also has a whole cadre of young female Corbynista admirers IIRC. All these lefty friends conform to every Daily Mail stereotype and can be relied upon to say the kind of idiotic thing that I have never heard anybody say in real life. These people are 100% not a figment of his over-active imagination.
I dunno. My Albanian cabbie told me that he heard the same story from a passenger just the other day.
I am aware that no one on this site will ever believe me, but the Albanian cabbie story was 100% true.
Albanian, ex pro footballer, moved to Italy then to the UK
Not a single lie in that there anecdote. But hey ho!
Hold on a moment - it wasn't 'Leon' who told that story, was it?
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
He also has a whole cadre of young female Corbynista admirers IIRC. All these lefty friends conform to every Daily Mail stereotype and can be relied upon to say the kind of idiotic thing that I have never heard anybody say in real life. These people are 100% not a figment of his over-active imagination.
I dunno. My Albanian cabbie told me that he heard the same story from a passenger just the other day.
I am aware that no one on this site will ever believe me, but the Albanian cabbie story was 100% true.
Albanian, ex pro footballer, moved to Italy then to the UK
Not a single lie in that there anecdote. But hey ho!
Hold on a moment - it wasn't 'Leon' who told that story, was it?
I like having Cricket to watch, but why it needed new gimmicks I'm not sure (and if aimed at non-cricket fans what is the draw compared to other formats).
I'm more interested in how the statisticians will record things.
T20 is excellent entertainment if you want a super-short form of the game. They could have added all the fireworks and extra-colourful pyjamas to that
Isn't that what they do in the IPL? (I haven't watched it for a few years).
As for evolution, whilst each format has an intelligent designer, getting shorter and shorter is a kind of natual evolution, whereas this might be like glueing extra legs onto a gazelle.
How about you have two teams of 25 players each, you play 100 deliveries or until all of them get out, to encourage more wild swinging? You then have 11 on the pitch for fielding side, but they have to change over as no one can be on the field more for than 15 consecutive deliveries. Happy to licence that to the ECB.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
The fact Frankfurt is the world's dullest place (it isn't I can think of way worse) is one reason why companies did whatever they could be avoid moving there.
If a decent city with nightlife had been the number 2 centre in europe things may have been different.
That French city, what's it called, you know - yes - Paris, is apparently quite pleasant. Yet they didn't really flock there either
London is unique because of its size, time zone, location, pool of talent, common law, and the English language, so even though it has been knocked by Brexit it was never likely to be toppled
Covid, however...
I was going to say Paris and instantly thought - income tax, employment law, law generally .... it's a none starter.
Had France none of those issues I suspect things would be different.
As for Covid - nothing that will occur now wouldn't have occurred over the next 20 years - communication links are such that you people being in the office 5 days a week is probably a big constraint on productivity.
If you're married with kids, then your income tax rates are almost certainly going to be lower than in England. On the other hand, if you're single with no kids, they'll be a lot higher.
So race relations began to seriously decline under Obama??
On that chart, everything was great until the last two years of Obama.
Which is odd.
Race relations - it is in fact all settled. All races are equal. The only BIG problem is that some people choose to think it's not all settled. Obliquely and perhaps unfairly that includes you.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
This is a joke, right?
The labour market statistics in the developed world (whether the US, the UK, Spain or pretty much anywhere else) show rapidly tightening markets. The situations vacant figure in some countries is running at all time high.
In my job, trying to hire either tech people in London, or more general hires in the US, salaries are going through the roof. We tried to hire a bookkeeper, who was earnings $45k, so we offered her $55k. Her employer countered, we recountererd, and she ended up staying in her job for $85k.
There is massive pent-up demand out there.
Perhaps I should rejoin the labour market ... I'd do my bit to alter that.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
He also has a whole cadre of young female Corbynista admirers IIRC. All these lefty friends conform to every Daily Mail stereotype and can be relied upon to say the kind of idiotic thing that I have never heard anybody say in real life. These people are 100% not a figment of his over-active imagination.
I dunno. My Albanian cabbie told me that he heard the same story from a passenger just the other day.
I am aware that no one on this site will ever believe me, but the Albanian cabbie story was 100% true.
Albanian, ex pro footballer, moved to Italy then to the UK
Not a single lie in that there anecdote. But hey ho!
Hold on a moment - it wasn't 'Leon' who told that story, was it?
So race relations began to seriously decline under Obama??
On that chart, everything was great until the last two years of Obama.
Which is odd.
Race relations - it is in fact all settled. All races are equal. The only BIG problem is that some people choose to think it's not all settled. Obliquely and perhaps unfairly that includes you.
Rawl's veil of ignorance is helpful here.
You wouldn't want to be born African American in large parts of the Deep South.
If you want some patented Alistair gloom to break your sunny optimism what we could be seeing here is the Football spike unwinding but the underlying slow increase continuing, so next week we will see a rise in cases.
If you look at Andy vs excellent chart last week was a big uptick off the trend and this week is more in line with where the trend would have been if not for the footie surge.
I'm slightly suspicious that Scotland's fall is about to level off.
Hopefully I am wrong on all counts.
The pessimist in me thinks this might not be far off. The queue of ambulances outside Ed is only 13 today, compared to 17 yesterday.
I think numbers may well level off rather than plummet. It seems too easy to catch.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
This is a joke, right?
The labour market statistics in the developed world (whether the US, the UK, Spain or pretty much anywhere else) show rapidly tightening markets. The situations vacant figure in some countries is running at all time high.
In my job, trying to hire either tech people in London, or more general hires in the US, salaries are going through the roof. We tried to hire a bookkeeper, who was earnings $45k, so we offered her $55k. Her employer countered, we recountererd, and she ended up staying in her job for $85k.
There is massive pent-up demand out there.
All that helicopter money has landed. Inflation, here we come...
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Disappointing. You'll be telling us next that you have some Tory in you, or that you have a grudging respect for Ian Duncan Smith. Not good.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
I do not see it in those terms at all
Biden is far more concerned with the German - French love affair with Russia and their antipathy to NATO
Furthermore, on climate change Boris is more attuned to the US than the Eu
Stephen Yaxley-Lennon is looking at legal costs in the ballpark of ***£500,000*** after losing his libel action against a Syrian teenage refugee - that excludes anything he may owe his former lawyers. https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1418213484710350866?s=20
I have always been intrigued by how he manages to sustain his lifestyle.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
From the other side of the divide, I have always found Schengen and the Euro appealing. It is the totalitarian capitalist hegemony that pushed me into the Leave camp.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
My wife is a Boris loving Leave supporter. It can be very difficult sometimes. I try not to discuss it anymore because it just causes arguments. In some respects it's better for me to join in the arguments on PB...
If you want some patented Alistair gloom to break your sunny optimism what we could be seeing here is the Football spike unwinding but the underlying slow increase continuing, so next week we will see a rise in cases.
If you look at Andy vs excellent chart last week was a big uptick off the trend and this week is more in line with where the trend would have been if not for the footie surge.
I'm slightly suspicious that Scotland's fall is about to level off.
Hopefully I am wrong on all counts.
Well, fewer restrictions and more nightclubbing meets school closures and more jabbing.
Plus, of course, people change their behaviour in response to rising or falling caseloads.
(Covid doesn't have waves - peoples' behaviour has waves.)
But you know what? We'll keep jabbing. There is no "wall", but there are sceptical people and some of them will end up getting vaccines because they decide the risk is OK, and some will get them because they want to go to Majorca, and some will simply get Covid and get their protection that way.
So, we will exit this. And probably sooner rather than later. Each successive exit wave will be a little bit less severe.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
No, it's completely rational ask anyone who knows anything about Northern Ireland and the peace process.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
No, it's completely rational ask anyone who knows anything about Northern Ireland and the peace process.
I think for a lot of people it's a case of DILIGAF. As long as we don't expend British blood and treasure on them again.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
From the other side of the divide, I have always found Schengen and the Euro appealing. It is the totalitarian capitalist hegemony that pushed me into the Leave camp.
I think Schengen is a brilliant idea. However it needs a ring of steel round the outside and a Euro immigration force.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
I do not see it in those terms at all
Biden is far more concerned with the German - French love affair with Russia and their antipathy to NATO
Furthermore, on climate change Boris is more attuned to the US than the Eu
The US has interests. Germany has interests. France has interests. The UK has interests.
Sometimes our interests are aligned with the US administration. Sometimes the Australians. Sometimes the French. Sometimes the Swiss. And sometimes we're all alone.
The mistake is to think in terms of permanent enemies or friends so good, they can do no wrong.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
From the other side of the divide, I have always found Schengen and the Euro appealing. It is the totalitarian capitalist hegemony that pushed me into the Leave camp.
For me the Euro would have been a major issue - you only have to look at Italy and remember that our productivity was (and still is) even worse
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
From the other side of the divide, I have always found Schengen and the Euro appealing. It is the totalitarian capitalist hegemony that pushed me into the Leave camp.
I think Schengen is a brilliant idea. However it needs a ring of steel round the outside and a Euro immigration force.
I've always been a big fan of Schengen, as borders are massively more porous than people think.
You therefore inconvenience the genuine, while doing little to affect the crooked.
There's a reason why the Swiss voted in a referendum to join Schengen, but have never been particularly keen on the EU.
Kakistocracy Watch. Parliament increasingly resembling that of a 3rd world country today with an MP being barred from the chamber for accurately calling out the PM as a liar.
To pretend that the existence of rules on parliamentary language signify anything at all is just plain ridiculous. Lots of non third world countries have such conventions for a start. MPs don't have any problem excoriating the PM without breaching such conventions, so anyone doing it is clearly engaged in a stunt.
But Opposiiton MPs can seem to have a hard time getting it across to people (not all of them au fait with Parliamentary conventions) that the Prime Minister is a liar.
No they don't. He is routinely attacked in and out of the Commons for all manner of failings, including misleading people, deceiving them or being just plain untrustworthy. Calling him a liar in the Commons won't wake people up to him being a liar, people either don't believe he is or they think he is but for other reasons still support him.
I despise childish stunts, designed to make people feel good about themselves or to get applause rather than achieve anything, and this was definitely childish, as most such stunts are. Other than that, I don't see the political or even comic value of such an act.
Lets me clear. Dawn "you're a racist" Butler did this as an attack on Keir Starmer. "I called the PM a liar" so why didn't Starmer? Trotter is already awash with calls for serkeir to resign if he doesn't back her.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
Live and Dangerous!
Phil Lynott: Is there anyone out there with a little Irish in them? Any of the girls want a little more Irish in them?
Oh dear God that's bad. She might as well have said "who cares how many jobs for Scotland?"
Not really when she clearly knew her stuff on another report about Scottish jobs. She also committed to getting the number. This is crappy gotcha journalism.
If you want some patented Alistair gloom to break your sunny optimism what we could be seeing here is the Football spike unwinding but the underlying slow increase continuing, so next week we will see a rise in cases.
If you look at Andy vs excellent chart last week was a big uptick off the trend and this week is more in line with where the trend would have been if not for the footie surge.
I'm slightly suspicious that Scotland's fall is about to level off.
Hopefully I am wrong on all counts.
The pessimist in me thinks this might not be far off. The queue of ambulances outside Ed is only 13 today, compared to 17 yesterday.
I think numbers may well level off rather than plummet. It seems too easy to catch.
I'm no epidemiologist, but it appears - from the record of hospital patient totals over time that's been reported in the early centres of infection - that admissions are initially rising, leading to the total number of Covid patients in the local hospital rising to some modest fraction of the previous peaks, before reaching an equilibrium state. Admissions stabilise and then the total number of patients also stabilises, thereafter to flatline or perhaps fluctuate up and down a little, rather than dropping off again.
This state of affairs might persist for weeks if not months, until the cumulative effect of vaccinations and infections finally breaks down the chains of transmission and we get to the fabled herd immunity, but exactly how long that will take is anybody's guess.
The total number of Covid patients in hospital nationwide ought hopefully to stop rising once every locality has attained its own equilibrium state, with healthcare provision being most heavily burdened in the areas with the highest population densities and the lowest percentages of the population vaccinated.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
So race relations began to seriously decline under Obama??
On that chart, everything was great until the last two years of Obama.
Which is odd.
Race relations - it is in fact all settled. All races are equal. The only BIG problem is that some people choose to think it's not all settled. Obliquely and perhaps unfairly that includes you.
Rawl's veil of ignorance is helpful here.
You wouldn't want to be born African American in large parts of the Deep South.
In North Carolina, Republicans specifically got data on what forms of ID African Americans have before deciding to exclude them from voter ID. Pretending racial relations is settled is deliberate head in the sandism.
Oh dear God that's bad. She might as well have said "who cares how many jobs for Scotland?"
Not really when she clearly knew her stuff on another report about Scottish jobs. She also committed to getting the number. This is crappy gotcha journalism.
Bullshit. You don't take your department on the road, make announcements about green energy jobs (which is led by Scotland) and only have the figures for England.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
Read an FT article about the Protocol today, and it said the Irish were hoping that Biden would put pressure on Boris and the UK to compromise with the Irish/EU
The article added that, however, Boris does not give a fuck what Biden says or thinks, so the Irish were being optimistic
It's amazing how much certain Irish commentators use the US as a crutch. They seem to think that all it will take for the UK to bend to their will is for Biden to stall on a trade deal, and similarly that if only the US would give its blessing for the UK to follow EU rules, then all the UK's objections to it would disappear.
Yeah, Ireland has fallen into the life of siding with the biggest bully and hoping that the bully will fight their battles for them. Biden gives no fucks about Ireland, he's proposed a tax regime that will decimate Ireland's national economy and will push ahead with or without their agreement.
Ireland won't lose out from the 15% rate, that's a nothing increase on the 12.5% rate they currently have what they will lose from is the 0% rates that companies use to dodge all taxes and once that's gone so are Apple and the rest of them. Biden and his team know that this will completely and utterly fuck Ireland and yet they're still pushing for it. On the other side, Biden and his team have listened to Rishi's argument on the global banking sector being exempt and accepted it.
It's almost as though Biden being ancestrally Irish means nothing.
It's almost Rishi had valid reasons within his argument that the Ireland concessions just didn't have.
Nah, can't be that. Biden must have just forgotten that he's really Irish and not American and that he really should advance Ireland's agenda at every opportunity.
I remember when Biden getting elected was the thing that would reverse Brexit because he'd bring the UK into line over Ireland and make the UK agree to everything the EU wanted. Sometimes I wonder whether these remainers delude themselves because it helps them sleep at night.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
He doesn't, however I do know for a fact that several of Boris Johnson's team are aware that Biden hasn't forgiven that dog whistle* comment about Obama's heritage.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
Remainers saying Nissan are leaving is definitely still a winning card.
On-topic: it's usually silly to insist on calling your political opponents crazy, but people should take a step back and then take a good calm look at the DUP. This party was in favour of Brexit, and not just Brexit but a hard Brexit. Now if we accept the premise of the header, which we should, then basically they wanted to tear up the Good Friday Agreement. They got Brexit. They've torn up the GFA. Are they happy? Are they f***! They're shouting that they've been sold down the river! It's kinda like they enjoy it, being under "siege".
Why on earth does any political faction behave like that? There is an answer to that question. To reach it you have to ask what they had against British membership of the EU in the first place, when they don't actually want a hard border with the RoI. It all starts to make crazy "sense" when you suss that they hate the EU because they think it's an instrument of the "harlot of Rome", which is also what they think about the RoI - and for that matter, about Joe Biden's White House. And Number 10 under Boris Johnson too.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
He doesn't, however I do know for a fact that several of Boris Johnson's team are aware that Biden hasn't forgiven that dog whistle* comment about Obama's heritage.
*More of a foghorn.
Biden may not have forgiven it, but by the look of the old guy, he's very probably forgotten it
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I think Ireland has actually ended up in a very exposed diplomatic position where, to coin a phrase, they now have to be lucky every time. We almost saw their position upended by the Commission over vaccines, and it would only take a similar incident that wasn't able to be walked back for serious political damage to be done to Ireland's faith in the EU.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
My wife is a Boris loving Leave supporter. It can be very difficult sometimes. I try not to discuss it anymore because it just causes arguments. In some respects it's better for me to join in the arguments on PB...
Oh god. Feel for you. Great coping technique though.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
He doesn't, however I do know for a fact that several of Boris Johnson's team are aware that Biden hasn't forgiven that dog whistle* comment about Obama's heritage.
*More of a foghorn.
Biden may not have forgiven it, but by the look of the old guy, he's very probably forgotten it
Well those who advise Biden certainly haven't forgotten it.
I read a piece last year about it, back in 2007 Obama's team had war gamed the 2008 campaign if the GOP nominee had run a racist/dog whistle campaign.
At the top of the list they'd expect two key things from a race baiting GOP nominee
1) To keep on calling Obama 'Barack Hussein Obama.'
and/or
2) Keep on referencing his part Kenyan heritage
Fortunately the GOP selected McCain and Romney who were honourable men and never went down that route.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has. Despite the absoluteness of the SM rules, neither the RoI nor EU will enforce them at the internal border. Can Boris use this unusual weakness in the EU solidity to UK advantage?
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
He doesn't, however I do know for a fact that several of Boris Johnson's team are aware that Biden hasn't forgiven that dog whistle* comment about Obama's heritage.
*More of a foghorn.
Biden may not have forgiven it, but by the look of the old guy, he's very probably forgotten it
Well those who advise Biden certainly haven't forgotten it.
I read a piece last year about it, back in 2007 Obama's team had war gamed the 2008 campaign if the GOP nominee had run a racist/dog whistle campaign.
At the top of the list they'd expect two key things from a race baiting GOP nominee
1) To keep on calling Obama 'Barack Hussein Obama.'
and/or
2) Keep on referencing his part Kenyan heritage
Fortunately the GOP selected McCain and Romney who were honourable men and never went down that route.
A fantastic and easy hook by Leon. TSE, for the photo, must be at least..
Groceries update - my local Tesco's has had completely empty shelves. Entire rows of shelves literally empty and closed off.
Signs up apologising and blaming a refrigeration failure. Oops.
I bought two bottles of still water in a supermarket somewhere in the Midlands earlier today. The shelves looked full.
Lightweight
I am having a beer now though. In a big city centre pub. Only 5 of us in. Capacity 80 approx.
A 'big city centre' somewhere in the Midlands. Most of the cities have quite compact centres. I'll guess Leicester, purely because of the long trek between the railway station and the bus station.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has.
The thing is we've got our cake and are eating it. Britain has a deal, and failing to implement the NI Protocol in the way the EU wanted it to exposes their bluff - they're not going to put up a border in the NI/Eire border, we're not going to put up an Irish Sea one, and they're not going to tear up the agreement because doing so means they will have to put up an NI/Eire border.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Disappointing. You'll be telling us next that you have some Tory in you, or that you have a grudging respect for Ian Duncan Smith. Not good.
Well there was a need to Make Work Pay and for all his demerits he seemed to ... no STOP!
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
Well, yes, me too. I only decided my Brexit vote on the day. and I still gravely regret losing things like Freedom of Movement - I never especially cared about that - tho I respect those who did vote to "take control" of migration. It's an honourable position.
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I think Ireland has actually ended up in a very exposed diplomatic position where, to coin a phrase, they now have to be lucky every time. We almost saw their position upended by the Commission over vaccines, and it would only take a similar incident that wasn't able to be walked back for serious political damage to be done to Ireland's faith in the EU.
I don't think it's as bad as that for Ireland, the bigger issue is losing the biggest low tax, low regulation ally from the EU. This will take years to make a difference and in the next treaty which is surely coming now that the UK has left Ireland will be very exposed and IMO the EU may use it to get them to vote no to the treaty and gently push Ireland towards the door into the TCA or something very much like it.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has.
The thing is we've got our cake and are eating it. Britain has a deal, and failing to implement the NI Protocol in the way the EU wanted it to exposes their bluff - they're not going to put up a border in the NI/Eire border, we're not going to put up an Irish Sea one, and they're not going to tear up the agreement because doing so means they will have to put up an NI/Eire border.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
We hold all the cards.
Until the day when the Dublin government, caught between Britain and the EU, says there are only two workable options: a hard border or a united Ireland.
That's is quite extraordinarily cold. Not even a 'we had a constructive discussion' or 'we agreed to continue talking'.
If Boris thinks Lord Frost's bizarre antics are going to work, he's an even prizer prize fool than we all thought.
Are we sure this rather unorthodox government wouldn't welcome a nice big running spat with the evil empire?
Actually I think Boris is very content to have a fight with the EU rightly or wrongly
But not wise of Boris to be so content. Biden is very certainly on the side of the EU, and when it comes to COP26 (Glasgow), it can't be good if the EU and USA are aligned against the UK.
Is he though? Or does he actually not give a flying fuck about UK/EU squabbling.
He doesn't, however I do know for a fact that several of Boris Johnson's team are aware that Biden hasn't forgiven that dog whistle* comment about Obama's heritage.
*More of a foghorn.
That lasts as long as Boris is PM. When Rishi takes over that all goes away and the UK will suddenly become the next major country to have a non-white leader which will play very well with liberal America.
Groceries update - my local Tesco's has had completely empty shelves. Entire rows of shelves literally empty and closed off.
Signs up apologising and blaming a refrigeration failure. Oops.
I bought two bottles of still water in a supermarket somewhere in the Midlands earlier today. The shelves looked full.
Lightweight
I am having a beer now though. In a big city centre pub. Only 5 of us in. Capacity 80 approx.
A 'big city centre' somewhere in the Midlands. Most of the cities have quite compact centres. I'll guess Leicester, purely because of the long trek between the railway station and the bus station.
Nottingham. It's really good here! Pub executives said that it was busier before 'Freedom Day' (Stage 4). They mentioned the students had gone home. They don't expect to be busy tomorrow.
If anything the Hundred isn't gimmicky enough. It's T20 with slightly fewer balls, ZX Speccy graphics and a pointless timeout. As a neutral and someone who is interested in cricket without being massively passionate about it, it's fine because it's actually not different enough from standard T20 to really justify any sort of loathing of it. The marketing bods clearly liked the name and then forgot to really do much else.
The only thing you can say about it so far really is the difference in atmosphere between the women's match and the men's match. Both good but one definitely for the family and the other for the Friday night pub crawl. Maybe that's a good thing.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has.
The thing is we've got our cake and are eating it. Britain has a deal, and failing to implement the NI Protocol in the way the EU wanted it to exposes their bluff - they're not going to put up a border in the NI/Eire border, we're not going to put up an Irish Sea one, and they're not going to tear up the agreement because doing so means they will have to put up an NI/Eire border.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
We hold all the cards.
Until the day when the Dublin government, caught between Britain and the EU, says there are only two workable options: a hard border or a united Ireland.
Ireland will never push forcefully for a united Ireland because they are too scared of Loyalist violence and more decades of Troubles
The same goes for a hard border across Ireland, no one will ever impose it because they are too scared of IRA violence etc etc
The men with the balaclavas and the armalites have a veto on any solutions other than a fudged version of the status quo, so that is what will happen in the end, and Boris is arguably just being pragmatic and the EU is being purist for no purpose
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I think Ireland has actually ended up in a very exposed diplomatic position where, to coin a phrase, they now have to be lucky every time. We almost saw their position upended by the Commission over vaccines, and it would only take a similar incident that wasn't able to be walked back for serious political damage to be done to Ireland's faith in the EU.
I don't think it's as bad as that for Ireland, the bigger issue is losing the biggest low tax, low regulation ally from the EU. This will take years to make a difference and in the next treaty which is surely coming now that the UK has left Ireland will be very exposed and IMO the EU may use it to get them to vote no to the treaty and gently push Ireland towards the door into the TCA or something very much like it.
Not so bad then. Only the prospect of 50 years’ foreign policy going up in smoke. 😟
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has.
The thing is we've got our cake and are eating it. Britain has a deal, and failing to implement the NI Protocol in the way the EU wanted it to exposes their bluff - they're not going to put up a border in the NI/Eire border, we're not going to put up an Irish Sea one, and they're not going to tear up the agreement because doing so means they will have to put up an NI/Eire border.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
We hold all the cards.
Until the day when the Dublin government, caught between Britain and the EU, says there are only two workable options: a hard border or a united Ireland.
Surely a hard border is not an option because Peace Process, and a united Ireland is unlikely because a majority would have to be found for it in the North *AND* the South would have to be prepared to take on the cost of funding the North.
Great Britain is about thirteen times bigger than the Republic of Ireland. The financial burden of reunification upon the latter would be very heavy.
If anything the Hundred isn't gimmicky enough. It's T20 with slightly fewer balls, ZX Speccy graphics and a pointless timeout. As a neutral and someone who is interested in cricket without being massively passionate about it, it's fine because it's actually not different enough from standard T20 to really justify any sort of loathing of it. The marketing bods clearly liked the name and then forgot to really do much else.
The only thing you can say about it so far really is the difference in atmosphere between the women's match and the men's match. Both good but one definitely for the family and the other for the Friday night pub crawl. Maybe that's a good thing.
The Hundred doesn't really work as it's a non standard format. Worldwide we have tests, 50 overs and 20 overs. There is no need/market for another format.
In the pub the executive have turned it over to AUS/ARG Olympic football
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I think Ireland has actually ended up in a very exposed diplomatic position where, to coin a phrase, they now have to be lucky every time. We almost saw their position upended by the Commission over vaccines, and it would only take a similar incident that wasn't able to be walked back for serious political damage to be done to Ireland's faith in the EU.
I don't think it's as bad as that for Ireland, the bigger issue is losing the biggest low tax, low regulation ally from the EU. This will take years to make a difference and in the next treaty which is surely coming now that the UK has left Ireland will be very exposed and IMO the EU may use it to get them to vote no to the treaty and gently push Ireland towards the door into the TCA or something very much like it.
The EU won't want to give Ireland the heave-ho and Ireland won't want to leave. If Dublin feels that it is politically unable to resist moves towards tax harmonisation then it will just have to lump it.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has.
The thing is we've got our cake and are eating it. Britain has a deal, and failing to implement the NI Protocol in the way the EU wanted it to exposes their bluff - they're not going to put up a border in the NI/Eire border, we're not going to put up an Irish Sea one, and they're not going to tear up the agreement because doing so means they will have to put up an NI/Eire border.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
We hold all the cards.
Until the day when the Dublin government, caught between Britain and the EU, says there are only two workable options: a hard border or a united Ireland.
Surely a hard border is not an option because Peace Process, and a united Ireland is unlikely because a majority would have to be found for it in the North *AND* the South would have to be prepared to take on the cost of funding the North.
Great Britain is about thirteen times bigger than the Republic of Ireland. The financial burden of reunification upon the latter would be very heavy.
It's not the poor, agrarian economy of old, whose main export was navvies. Ireland now has a higher per-capita GDP than Northern Ireland, and could write its own aid cheques from America.
Groceries update - my local Tesco's has had completely empty shelves. Entire rows of shelves literally empty and closed off.
Signs up apologising and blaming a refrigeration failure. Oops.
I bought two bottles of still water in a supermarket somewhere in the Midlands earlier today. The shelves looked full.
Lightweight
I am having a beer now though. In a big city centre pub. Only 5 of us in. Capacity 80 approx.
A 'big city centre' somewhere in the Midlands. Most of the cities have quite compact centres. I'll guess Leicester, purely because of the long trek between the railway station and the bus station.
Nottingham. It's really good here! Pub executives said that it was busier before 'Freedom Day' (Stage 4). They mentioned the students had gone home. They don't expect to be busy tomorrow.
We are up to about 10 in now.
I used to be a semi-regular drinker in Nottingham 20 or so years ago. The Fellows Morton and Clayton was my favourite, with an honourable mention to the Lincolnshire Poacher.
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
Bearing in mind that 30% of Hartelepool voted Remain, you probably have a better than 50% chance with that line with a young middle class female. Much more likely to fail if you fancy a retired working class bloke...
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
Bearing in mind that 30% of Hartelepool voted Remain, you probably have a better than 50% chance with that line with a young middle class female. Much more likely to fail if you fancy a retired working class bloke...
I’m not sure the good folk of Hartlepool would consider dating an outsider
The survey of 250 manufacturing businesses reported output increasing in 16 out of 17 sub-sectors, led by the motor vehicles & transport equipment and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors.
Manufacturers expect output to grow at an even quicker pace in the next three months – the strongest growth expectations on record.
Furthermore, total new orders grew at their quickest pace since 1974. This reflected domestic orders expanding at their fastest rate on record (since 1975), and the first rise in export orders since January 2019.
Meanwhile, numbers employed in the sector grew at their fastest pace since 1973, and are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate in the next three months.
The world is booming right now, as we start to put Covid behind us.
It can't be true though, I kept being told after Brexit that the UK would wave goodbye to all of its industries and that I personally would be out of a job because the whole City would move to Frankfurt, the world's dullest place.
These manufacturing companies must be mistaken, Robert. All of those experts couldn't possibly be wrong and the Treasury's gravity model is able to predict the future 100% accurately.
Had a debate with a lefty Remainer friend a few days ago. He has a physics degree from a Russell Group university
He claimed that GDP had fallen by 30% because of Brexit, and it took a while for him to accept that he was wrong
If a smart guy can hold opinions like this, how many people believe totally insane things? And vote "accordingly"?
Isn't there a well-established effect whereby the more intelligent you are the less open to persuasion by alternative points of view, and the more likely you are to 'mould' the facts to support your beliefs?
PS Do you have any friends who are not 'lefty Remainers'?
I certainly have way more lefty Remainer friends than Brexiteers - I live in north London and move in quite arty/lefty circles, it's what you get
I have some Tory friends but actual Leavers? - there is one. Possibly two - tho the second is a Corbynite Leaver. That's it, I think. I have a couple more who really agonised over the decision but, I think, went Remain in the end because they own London property
My family is much more Leavery - but they don't live in London
I don't buy this binary split of people as R or L. The split does exist but it's within each person. Every Remainer has some Leave in them and every Leaver some Remain. Me, for example, I have quite a high Leave quotient. It's the part of me I dislike but oh yes it's there.
I might head up to Hartlepool and try out my new chat up line... "Do you have some Remainer in you... Would you like some?"
Bearing in mind that 30% of Hartelepool voted Remain, you probably have a better than 50% chance with that line with a young middle class female. Much more likely to fail if you fancy a retired working class bloke...
Groceries update - my local Tesco's has had completely empty shelves. Entire rows of shelves literally empty and closed off.
Signs up apologising and blaming a refrigeration failure. Oops.
I bought two bottles of still water in a supermarket somewhere in the Midlands earlier today. The shelves looked full.
Lightweight
I am having a beer now though. In a big city centre pub. Only 5 of us in. Capacity 80 approx.
A 'big city centre' somewhere in the Midlands. Most of the cities have quite compact centres. I'll guess Leicester, purely because of the long trek between the railway station and the bus station.
Nottingham. It's really good here! Pub executives said that it was busier before 'Freedom Day' (Stage 4). They mentioned the students had gone home. They don't expect to be busy tomorrow.
We are up to about 10 in now.
I used to be a semi-regular drinker in Nottingham 20 or so years ago. The Fellows Morton and Clayton was my favourite, with an honourable mention to the Lincolnshire Poacher.
I went to a pub called Lincolnshire Poacher in Spalding many times. It is a top pub.
I was in Sleaford today. Has anyone else been there? Richard Tyndall??
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I think Ireland has actually ended up in a very exposed diplomatic position where, to coin a phrase, they now have to be lucky every time. We almost saw their position upended by the Commission over vaccines, and it would only take a similar incident that wasn't able to be walked back for serious political damage to be done to Ireland's faith in the EU.
I don't think it's as bad as that for Ireland, the bigger issue is losing the biggest low tax, low regulation ally from the EU. This will take years to make a difference and in the next treaty which is surely coming now that the UK has left Ireland will be very exposed and IMO the EU may use it to get them to vote no to the treaty and gently push Ireland towards the door into the TCA or something very much like it.
Not so bad then. Only the prospect of 50 years’ foreign policy going up in smoke. 😟
Lol, I think what they'll be offered is the TCA with alignment to EU standards so that Ireland has easier trade with the EU but isn't in the customs union. I can't imagine Ireland with their dodgy tax deals are particularly popular in Brussels and France will be eyeing up their financial and tech industries which are wholly dependent on exporting "services" to the EU. It's not like the UK where companies here serve a large domestic market as well as huge non-EU markets.
A stunningly ill informed and ignorant piece by someone who doesn't seem to understand any of the subjects he talks about - not least how Parliamentary democracy works. Not really surprised you linked to such a fuck witted piece.
Eh? Gauke is lamenting the fact that your man Cummings plotted to overthrow the democratically elected British prime minister. Or is your point that such plotting by unelected 'advisers' is all fine and dandy?
It is truly sad that so many people seem to wilfully misunderstand or misrepresent Parliamentary democracy, including it seems Mr Dawning.
We do not elect a Prime Minister. Nor do we elect a Government. We elect an individual MP to represent us in Parliament. Enough of them together get to choose who will be PM and he then gets to choose his Government. If those MPs can be persuaded that the incumbent is no longer fit to be PM then they can get rid of them. It has happened many times before and is certainly not undemocratic nor is it plotting to 'overthrow the democratically elected British Prime Minister' because that PM was not elected by the electorate, he was chosen by a majority of the MPs and his continued existence as PM relies upon that same group of MPs continuing to support him.
There is absolutely nothing undemocratic about what Cummings has suggested anymore than it was undemocratic to get rid of Thatcher or May.
If you claim there is anything new about this plotting then you are simply being dishonest or stupid... or both.
An excellent commentary as always from Mike Smithson. These thoughts are from one who supported Brexit but wanted 'Norway for Now' in the belief that a long term process was essential.
1) If Brexit and GFA are actually incompatible then Remain incomprehensibly failed to say so, and failed to say what the limits on Brexit would be. That is because they are not incompatible.
2) The UK and the RoI are sovereign states (the sort with seats at the UN and armies).
3) The EU is an extensive trade association, and not a state.
4) If it is realistic to say that the UK can bend its sovereignty red lines to the extent of separating the GB and the NI internal market as the protocol requires, it is realistic to say that the EU can bend its trade association rules to contain an anomaly which protects the interests of one of their members, the RoI, and those of a friendly neighbour with equivalently high standards, the UK.
5) Which obvious truth is why Remain did not campaign on the basis that a (non EFTA) Brexit was impossible.
Precisely, the dispute is between the UK and Ireland, not the UK and EU. Ireland could disengage from the Single Market, join a customs union with the UK - no land border, no sea border - job done.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
The UK government could have left without a deal. That would have left the EU with the problem of how to deal with the land border in the island of Ireland since in principle they would have had to close it to protect the SM, and we wouldn't because we would have had insufficient interest in protecting the border.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has. Despite the absoluteness of the SM rules, neither the RoI nor EU will enforce them at the internal border. Can Boris use this unusual weakness in the EU solidity to UK advantage?
It is a fascinating and high stakes process.
My expectation is that Johnson will stick with the Protocol, but there is maybe a 30% chance he won't. I have misread him before, so I wouldn't be too confident. I was genuinely surprised that he agreed the Protocol. I didn't think anyone would negotiate an arrangement that bad.
Comments
I'm more interested in how the statisticians will record things.
In my job, trying to hire either tech people in London, or more general hires in the US, salaries are going through the roof. We tried to hire a bookkeeper, who was earnings $45k, so we offered her $55k. Her employer countered, we recountererd, and she ended up staying in her job for $85k.
There is massive pent-up demand out there.
This feels like an evolution too far
As for evolution, whilst each format has an intelligent designer, getting shorter and shorter is a kind of natual evolution, whereas this might be like glueing extra legs onto a gazelle.
But it passes the evening well enough.
Which is odd.
Another unlikely story...
You wouldn't want to be born African American in large parts of the Deep South.
As a contrived TV spectacle with contrived teams.... hmm.....
Maybe it will mature
I think numbers may well level off rather than plummet. It seems too easy to catch.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/22/biden-sanctions-cuba-500534
But some people are 100%. I have 2 or 3 Remoaner friends who are in the A C Grayling stakes for frothing, irrational anger at the Leave vote. I try to avoid even mentioning it with them, but do not always succeed
Biden is far more concerned with the German - French love affair with Russia and their antipathy to NATO
Furthermore, on climate change Boris is more attuned to the US than the Eu
Plus, of course, people change their behaviour in response to rising or falling caseloads.
(Covid doesn't have waves - peoples' behaviour has waves.)
But you know what? We'll keep jabbing. There is no "wall", but there are sceptical people and some of them will end up getting vaccines because they decide the risk is OK, and some will get them because they want to go to Majorca, and some will simply get Covid and get their protection that way.
So, we will exit this. And probably sooner rather than later. Each successive exit wave will be a little bit less severe.
(I'm making this up)
Covid transmission
Sometimes our interests are aligned with the US administration. Sometimes the Australians. Sometimes the French. Sometimes the Swiss. And sometimes we're all alone.
The mistake is to think in terms of permanent enemies or friends so good, they can do no wrong.
You therefore inconvenience the genuine, while doing little to affect the crooked.
There's a reason why the Swiss voted in a referendum to join Schengen, but have never been particularly keen on the EU.
Phil Lynott: Is there anyone out there with a little Irish in them? Any of the girls want a little more Irish in them?
This state of affairs might persist for weeks if not months, until the cumulative effect of vaccinations and infections finally breaks down the chains of transmission and we get to the fabled herd immunity, but exactly how long that will take is anybody's guess.
The total number of Covid patients in hospital nationwide ought hopefully to stop rising once every locality has attained its own equilibrium state, with healthcare provision being most heavily burdened in the areas with the highest population densities and the lowest percentages of the population vaccinated.
Signs up apologising and blaming a refrigeration failure. Oops.
The Irish saw the trap on day 1 and have marshalled their considerable lobbying power in both the EU and the US to avoid having to choose between the Single Market and a soft land border. The EU doesn't care as long as its rules are followed, but Ireland won't compromise on this point, ever.
So what will happen if this Brexiteer government decides to tear up both the Protocol and the TCA? This is a significantly greater than zero risk. They will lose Nissan, which is something they seem to care about, but once it's gone it's gone, and they have pretty much wrecked everything else anyway, so why not?
I am guessing Ireland will go with the Single Market and cut the North loose. But it will be a grim time for everyone, especially those in Northern Ireland.
I remember when Biden getting elected was the thing that would reverse Brexit because he'd bring the UK into line over Ireland and make the UK agree to everything the EU wanted. Sometimes I wonder whether these remainers delude themselves because it helps them sleep at night.
Overall view: COVID is still about, let's be careful out there!
@Leon take heart from Jurassic Park.
“Life (in London) will find a way...”
*More of a foghorn.
Why on earth does any political faction behave like that? There is an answer to that question. To reach it you have to ask what they had against British membership of the EU in the first place, when they don't actually want a hard border with the RoI. It all starts to make crazy "sense" when you suss that they hate the EU because they think it's an instrument of the "harlot of Rome", which is also what they think about the RoI - and for that matter, about Joe Biden's White House. And Number 10 under Boris Johnson too.
Biden may not have forgiven it, but by the look of the old guy, he's very probably forgotten it
Lynot - per TUD.
I read a piece last year about it, back in 2007 Obama's team had war gamed the 2008 campaign if the GOP nominee had run a racist/dog whistle campaign.
At the top of the list they'd expect two key things from a race baiting GOP nominee
1) To keep on calling Obama 'Barack Hussein Obama.'
and/or
2) Keep on referencing his part Kenyan heritage
Fortunately the GOP selected McCain and Romney who were honourable men and never went down that route.
We didn't. Meaning that Boris accepted the Ireland fudge which all parties knew could not work in the long term. Not least because it is obvious to all that unionist extremists in NI would not accept for ever the NI/GB divergence without resorting to civil unrest.
So the problem landed mostly on us rather than them.
Boris's tactic was to accept the only way of leaving with a deal, and wait; hoping that in due course it may become a joint problem and not just ours. Hence the willingness to break with an international treaty. He has no alternative in these unique circumstances.
The EU wants the UK to break the red lines of our internal market. We want the EU to break their SM red lines. Both sides refuse to be the first to suggest an internal barrier. That is about the only hold Boris has. Despite the absoluteness of the SM rules, neither the RoI nor EU will enforce them at the internal border. Can Boris use this unusual weakness in the EU solidity to UK advantage?
It is a fascinating and high stakes process.
They have no chips to hold except "you agreed to this", which is not very meaningful in the circumstances. Especially since they agreed to Article 16 which is part of the agreement and can be invoked if need be - and if it is then what can they do without making their problems worse?
We hold all the cards.
You're right. Not good. I was 100% kidding.
We are up to about 10 in now.
The only thing you can say about it so far really is the difference in atmosphere between the women's match and the men's match. Both good but one definitely for the family and the other for the Friday night pub crawl. Maybe that's a good thing.
The same goes for a hard border across Ireland, no one will ever impose it because they are too scared of IRA violence etc etc
The men with the balaclavas and the armalites have a veto on any solutions other than a fudged version of the status quo, so that is what will happen in the end, and Boris is arguably just being pragmatic and the EU is being purist for no purpose
Great Britain is about thirteen times bigger than the Republic of Ireland. The financial burden of reunification upon the latter would be very heavy.
In the pub the executive have turned it over to AUS/ARG Olympic football
And I won 3-0.
But - the club I used to play at has gone bust in the interim.
I was in Sleaford today. Has anyone else been there? Richard Tyndall??
There are enough fans in both countries to make a decent team
I've changed my mind, I reckon the Hundred might work, but they should have mostly kept the T20 format AND had the new teams and the pzazz
We do not elect a Prime Minister. Nor do we elect a Government. We elect an individual MP to represent us in Parliament. Enough of them together get to choose who will be PM and he then gets to choose his Government. If those MPs can be persuaded that the incumbent is no longer fit to be PM then they can get rid of them. It has happened many times before and is certainly not undemocratic nor is it plotting to 'overthrow the democratically elected British Prime Minister' because that PM was not elected by the electorate, he was chosen by a majority of the MPs and his continued existence as PM relies upon that same group of MPs continuing to support him.
There is absolutely nothing undemocratic about what Cummings has suggested anymore than it was undemocratic to get rid of Thatcher or May.
If you claim there is anything new about this plotting then you are simply being dishonest or stupid... or both.