Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Why Tories, including the PM, have got to be careful with comments about the elderly – politicalbett

12346

Comments

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The first rule of cryptography is that the moment more than one person has a key the key is potentially compromised

    I think you're confused about the nature of public and private keys. Public keys can be given to multiple users and mean that that user can encrypt the file so that only someone with the private key can decrypt it. But they won't help with decryption whatsoever.
    Not at all confused as I spent 5 years working with the system. The important key is the one on government servers. It encrypts the data sent out which creates the qr code , then when the qr code is scanned receives the data and decrypts it and checks it. The government keys will be on the darknet before you can say boo to a goose allowing people to create vaxports at will that will pass muster
    Why would I need to decrypt the message, all I need to do is use the data available to verify that the contents match the signature.

    You dont need to decrypt it. Government server sends you encrypted data which is used to build a qr code still the data is encrypted...you scan it, sent to government server that decrypts it to make sure its one they sent out and checks your status then sends back yes or no.....where in that did you decrypt anything?
    So why did you talk about Decryption and cryptography then (especially as I'm now certain you haven't a clue about what you are talking about.

    The options are:-

    Locally - verify a signed dataset using a public key
    Networked - talk to a Government server who confirms the record you are checking is valid.

    Both have plus points and minus points and the reality is that you could easily offer both...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    If it is just on the users phones then its easily forgeable and therefore pointless. I just get a friend to take a screenshot of theirs. Same with a paper version
    Come on @Pagan2, you're smarter than that. It's incredibly easy for everybody to have a "seed" and then for the barcode to change every 30 seconds.

    But let's ignore that for a second.

    The reality is that there are successful vaxport apps in New York, Israel and Denmark - and those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. None of those systems seem to have any particular issues, as far as I can see.

    That means that they are far impossible.

    Now, a perfectly reasonably objection to this, is that it is the thin end of the wedge that leads to identity cards, tracking and the rest. And that's a perfectly reasonable objection.

    But it's real world choices time here: is it less bad to allow those who *choose* vaccination to live a normal life again, and to allow the economy to fully reopen; or is it less bad to keep Covid as an ongoing issue to avoid the possibility that a future government uses them to introduce ID cards by the back door?
    It is less bad to keep covid frankly, if I wanted governement tracking I would emigrate to China. My statements about crytography is debunking the "There cant be fakes" view of some. Will fakes be the majority hell no but they will be available

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccine-passports-idUSL8N2M05AB
    "There's absolutely no point in arresting Jeffrey Epstein for being a rapist, if there are going to be other rapists wandering around" - @Pagan2, 2021.
    Where did I say people found with fake ones wouldn't be arrested? You forget here energy. I can get a fake vaxport with a couple of clicks....I can vaccines by travelling somewhere taking up my time twice a few weeks apart. Let us remember bothering to walk a few minutes to a polling booth is to much for some people
    Your point was that because some people would be using fake ones, there would be no utility to them. I.e., it suggests that you need 100% uptake for them to work.

    That's exactly the same as saying that because we can't catch all rapists, there's no point in catching 99% of them.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    edited July 2021

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dear me, do people really think that checking a vaccine certificate requires communicating with government servers? I suppose such spectacular ignorance is because the government has stupidly not explained anything or laid the groundwork, but it's very hard to correct such nonsensical beliefs once they get around.

    You would need to have a secure chain API with a bring your own device front end to scan the QR code and get a response from the server saying it's legit. Otherwise why bother?
    No, you just need it to be encrypted using absolutely bog-standard techniques.

    It's identical to your computer checking a certificate. All you need to store in the smartphone or other device checking the QR code is a small number of public keys.
    Sighs you have no clue do you, a public key will be leaked. Look how well it worked for dvds when the data was encrypted....clue it lasted days. Keys will be leaked or a weakness found in almost nothing flat.
    How does my browser accept an SSL certificate as legit? Not via Digicert or whoever signed it.
    Your browser decrypts it with a key. Those keys get leaked too

    https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/private-keys-for-23000-digital-certificates-leaked-a-10689#:~:text=The emailing of the private,this a serious security issue.
    Can I ask what cryptography has to do with the issue at hand - which is how can you verify that the record presented to you (within a QR barcode) is valid.

    To do that the only options are external verification (to a central server, to which you can run zero trust authentication and complete logging) or local verification....
    I'm not an expert in the precise mathematics of it but I imagined that your QR code would be a representation of your certificate signed by the government's private key, just as an SSL certificate is signed by a trusted* authority.

    The check-in app only has to check the certificate trust tree to verify that it hasn't been tampered with. The certificate itself would contain details such as your name and your vax status.

    *Yes, I know. Symantec etc etc.

    It doesn't even need to do that. Take dataset, take public key and verify the signature that signed the dataset within the QR code...

    My only bit of advice is to ensure the dataset is consistent and you don't use JSON or anything else that supports unstructured data.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Cookie said:

    Netherlands-watch - 6699 cases. Slightly down on last week. The third wave in the Netherlands appears to have peaked less than a fortnight after it started.

    School holidays in the Netherlands have a staggered start, with about two thirds going on break on the 17th, and the last third being the 24th.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The first rule of cryptography is that the moment more than one person has a key the key is potentially compromised

    I think you're confused about the nature of public and private keys. Public keys can be given to multiple users and mean that that user can encrypt the file so that only someone with the private key can decrypt it. But they won't help with decryption whatsoever.
    Not at all confused as I spent 5 years working with the system. The important key is the one on government servers. It encrypts the data sent out which creates the qr code , then when the qr code is scanned receives the data and decrypts it and checks it. The government keys will be on the darknet before you can say boo to a goose allowing people to create vaxports at will that will pass muster
    Why would I need to decrypt the message, all I need to do is use the data available to verify that the contents match the signature.

    You dont need to decrypt it. Government server sends you encrypted data which is used to build a qr code still the data is encrypted...you scan it, sent to government server that decrypts it to make sure its one they sent out and checks your status then sends back yes or no.....where in that did you decrypt anything?
    So why did you talk about Decryption and cryptography then (especially as I'm now certain you haven't a clue about what you are talking about.

    The options are:-

    Locally - verify a signed dataset using a public key
    Networked - talk to a Government server who confirms the record you are checking is valid.

    Both have plus points and minus points and the reality is that you could easily offer both...
    Because I havent been as I said to richard the weakness isnt cryptography in this it is people and people will take those keys and sell them. There also as in the case of dvds might be the problem of vulnerabilities in the system allowing people to extract those keys. Cryptography is largely irrelevant we are discussing access to keys. Its not encryption that is weak it is safeguarding the keys that is weak
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363

    Pulpstar said:

    As a potential middle ground, pubs could ask for vaxport ID upon purchase of alcohol...
    I had to provide ID right through till when I was about 30, was that a massive infringement on my liberties for looking youngish ?
    Licensing laws have always been discriminatory :D

    I’ve never been asked to prove I was over 18 (nor did I have any difficulty getting served back when it would have been difficult due to the technical difficulty that I wasn’t). Obviously I don’t look that young and never have. :(
    They a
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    If it is just on the users phones then its easily forgeable and therefore pointless. I just get a friend to take a screenshot of theirs. Same with a paper version
    I believe one of the debates happening in government is about the 'easy to fraud' problem.
    They can debate all they want but like most things governments dont have the brightest people working for them, the brightest in it are outside and delight in a challenge of breaking things wide open and figuring out how to
    Delighting in working out how to bring an increased risk of Covid infection into a nightclub because you are unjabbed, most people are sensible and will comply
    I am not unjabbed I merely refuse to take part in your illiberal bollocks of vaxports the tories can fuck off
    That's fine.. no holidays abroad for you then..
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    gealbhan said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. Sorry, only just read the @Cyclefree PT header on the stubborn Tory poll lead. It's a very good helicopter piece.

    "If the choice is between the Tories and an empty space, the latter is unlikely to win."

    The above line jumped out at me. You read it and reflexively nod and think "too right". It's one of those.

    But then - if you're me - you dwell on it a while and wonder whether it is such a slam dunk. This government (and particularly this PM) are increasingly being viewed by anybody with eyes to see and ears to listen and noses to smell and mouths to - ok ok you get the picture - as an utter shambles. No principles. No competence. 'No' as in ZERO.

    They've got away with it so far (pollwise) but for how long? Brexit is shedding its potency as iconic wedge issue. Slowly, to be sure, but it is. They can poke the fires of its culture war aspect but is this enough to stay at 40%? I doubt it. Tough times lie ahead with the economy and in Fiscal Corner. Leveling Up, for example, has to move from soundbite to hard policy choices and this will piss some people off. If it doesn't it's not real and remains a soundbite. Which would also start to piss some people off, just a different bunch, those Leavers who voted for this agenda, believing it to be genuine. Because these folk are not total blithering idiots - not in the main and not all the time. Whatever, poll damage is coming either way. Ditto with Social Care. There are no votes in that. Only negative ones if you get serious about it. Ask Andy Burnham or Theresa May. So the same choice there. A solid plan and loss of popularity or a cop out and loss of popularity.

    Now we have this mismanaged exit from the pandemic. Plus (the header here) further damaging reveals from Cummings - who was right there in the middle of it - about the response and attitude throughout. The PM at key moments in thrall to bizarre right-wing 'contrarians' for heaven's sake, most of them no wiser than our PB one. His focus not on preventing Covid running amok in England and killing tens of thousands but on something far more important - impressing the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator.

    I could go on. The challenge is to stop. But I can do that too. I'm going out maskless in a minute. Big moment. The point is, surely all of this shit is probably going to lead within a year to the Cons polling no better than mid 30s. And then come the GE, given things can only get worse, if the choice is indeed between more of the same or a nice cool empty space fronted by a non-scary, competent, decent sounding bloke who looks like he could run a whelk stall and could manage to tell the truth every now and again, well for me that's a toss up.

    I take issue with 'poke the fires of its culture war aspect'. Blaming the right for the culture war is like blaming Poland for World War Two. The right isn't trying to move back to 1953, it just doesn't want to be dragged forward to year zero. All the movement on the culture war is from the left. The right isn't trying to rewrite history. The right is, occasionally, suggesting that perhaps the left might be going a bit too far.
    Now you're astute, and you'll notice I'm saying 'the left' and not 'the Labour Party'. SKS is trying his hardest to avoid the loonier fringes of the culture war, though his party occasionally drag him into it. But to the electorate as a whole, that's not enough. Neil Kinnock was no culture warrior. But the culture warriors of the wider left - the ILEA, for example - lost him votes. How does SKS distance Labour from the likes of Zarah Sultana and Nadia Whittome?

    EDIT - and have you read the Telegraph or the Spectator recently? If the PM has been trying to impress the Telegraph and the Spectator, he's going about it abysmally. What he's trying to do (and succeeding) is to impress the authoritarian lobby which want more laws on other people (like @gealbhan yesterday - although I wasn't sure how serious he was).

    EDIT2: And good luck going maskless. Enjoy exchanging smiles with other demaskers!
    As named, I’ll explain.

    My point being the argument between authoritarian and libertarian is not a left right one, nor is it a case of one side being right, the other wrong. It’s a case of both should listen to the other and debate the other, to help get things right.

    It shows up clearly in Covid politics, commentators in the Telegraph (Conservative in party politics, split between libertarian and authoritarian in Covid response) and the Daily Mail (Conservative till sixties, populist right since) also to a smaller degree split between authoritarian and libertarian, though tending toward libertarian in editorial.

    In downing street yesterday, JVT Libertarian, open nite clubs, Vallance authoritarian, against doing it right now.

    But with the success of vaccines, things have now moved on, old media and new media like this blog very slow to realise how things have moved. It’s never been, if not now then when, it was always going to be how, post vaccine.

    It’s not about vaccines now, it’s about behaviours. The horse taken to water (jabbed) could say the easier equation than getting it to drink (behaviour) hence now proper debate required between authoritarian and libertarian to achieve those behaviours.

    The government have already decided the road ahead and won’t u turn. My evidence? The main headline this lunchtime, government no intention to tackle pingdemic, they are determined to generate it, latest missive from Downing Street, if you are pinged then isolate.

    So if you delete the app, ie show the wrong behaviour, the government won’t concede to you, they will coerce you into the behaviours in the end.

    I don’t make this up, I’m just the messenger where for many the penny hasn’t dropped yet.
    Marginally following this up, isn't one of Labour's problems that very few of the real choices we face are left v right. A number of left issues are over, and therefore discounted. The NHS, free education to 18, not being an imperial power, social housing, payments to those not in work, House of Lords reform, minimum wage, employment rights, high taxes on the rich, health and safety etc. The centre left has won all the battles, and the centre right occupies what would have been a centre/centre left position.

    Covid, Brexit, China, Russia, Islamic extremism, free speech, debt and deficit, the state of the UK union - none of these have obvious left v right alternative solutions.

    The game has changed. I think so far the Tories have been better at silently shifting. Labour members still seem to think that the very people who vote in Patel, Sunak, Kwarteng and Nadhim Zahawi are filthy racists because they don't think Diane Abbott, Dawn Butler and Zarah Sultana are outstanding politicians.

    The next left/right debate is UBI (and the terms of that debate will, in part be set by the experience of furlough, and our economic path over the next 5 years or so).

    I think the left is at *extreme* danger of being outflanked on this by the right, with a post-industrial market-economy argument being made (and won) for its introduction by a future Tory administration, while Labour sits it out, scared of frightening the middle-england horses.
    There is no debate to be had, UBI which is enough to live on is unaffordable
    UBI already exists in this country, we just don't call it that and we have an extremely high real marginal income tax on it.

    A sensible UBI introduction would be to merge existing things together, sort out the tax rates so they're sensible, then call it UBI. Not introduce massive new benefits.

    A bit like Osborne introducing a Living Wage, based upon the pre-existing Minimum Wage and not dramatically different.
    UBI will not work until they sort out housing benefit, specifically in London and the south.

    The current numbers require something like £1k a month for an adult, £500 for a child, and an income tax rate of 35% with no personal allowance. Then start making allowances for behavioural changes, all of which will be on the downside for the Chancellor.
    Don't like it, don't get it - handouts for sitting at home make zero sense to me. I take the 'Judge Judy' approach to welfare!
    The entire point of a UBI, as opposed to UC/JSA etc is that its not a handout for sitting at home.

    What we have today is handouts encouraging people to stay at home.
    I t further weakens the notion of self-help and nurse knows best. No thanks.
    Actually it does the complete opposite.

    UC/JSA weakens the notion of self-help because it pays people to not be working. Work and "you lose your benefits". If you fail to work, you're paid for that.

    UBI reinforces the notion of self-help as you get the UBI whether you work or not. Fail to work, you're not given any extra money than those who do work, so you're the one who suffers.
    You can only claim JSA now if able bodied if you have made enough NI contributions when in work, so JSA now encourages self-help.

    UBI would be paid to anyone, whether a billionaire or multimillionaire in a mansion or someone out of work in a council house.
    Are you sure you can't get any benefits without NI contributions? I don't think you're right.

    That its paid to a millionaire or in a council house, is the entire point of universality. By paying it to everyone you get rid of the 'poverty trap' and ensure that its not worth anyone not working because if they don't work they only hurt themselves.

    The millionaire getting the benefit should just see the benefit offset against the taxes they owe, no different to how the tax-free allowance always worked prior to it being written off for highest earners.
    You can't get JSA now without NI contributions no, only UC.
    https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/eligibility

    I fail to see why the average taxpayer should fund a benefit to millionaires or why it should mean the millionaire then gets a tax cut instead.

    Because you're not thinking straight.

    By taxing away the benefits you're not affecting the millionaires marginal tax rate at all.

    The people who have a high marginal tax rate and suffer from means testing are the poor not the rich.

    The richest who are paying hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds a year in taxes getting a tiny amount back in 'universal benefits' is a rounding error for them, but its incredibly meaningful for the people not facing 75% marginal tax rates anymore.
    UC means the poor and out of work are not facing 75% marginal tax rates anymore, as it only reduces their benefits gradually as their working hours increase and earnings up to £12,750 pay no income tax at all
    If you are 23 or older working minimum wage then you hit the earnings threshold at 27.5 hours per week. Only working six hours a day, with a half hour lunch break, takes you to £12,750.

    If you are working 30 hours a week at £8.91 minimum wage and getting UC then what is your marginal tax rate?

    Taking into account Income Tax, National Insurance and UC Taper what marginal tax rate are you facing if you get a job offer for 40 hours a week instead of 30 hours per week?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,359
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:
    It is entirely possible that an early version of Covid, maybe one with an R of 1.1, circulated for some time. And then, as with the Delta variant, a small mutation caused a dramatic increase in R, and it took off.

    I suspect if we were on chinapoliticalbetting.com, then @Shīzi* would be ranting eloquently about how this was proof that the West had invented Covid and smuggled it into China to fuck them over, and that it was practically an act of war.

    * Leon in Chinese
    PB without @Leon is like eating pizza without the pineapple!
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    If it is just on the users phones then its easily forgeable and therefore pointless. I just get a friend to take a screenshot of theirs. Same with a paper version
    Come on @Pagan2, you're smarter than that. It's incredibly easy for everybody to have a "seed" and then for the barcode to change every 30 seconds.

    But let's ignore that for a second.

    The reality is that there are successful vaxport apps in New York, Israel and Denmark - and those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. None of those systems seem to have any particular issues, as far as I can see.

    That means that they are far impossible.

    Now, a perfectly reasonably objection to this, is that it is the thin end of the wedge that leads to identity cards, tracking and the rest. And that's a perfectly reasonable objection.

    But it's real world choices time here: is it less bad to allow those who *choose* vaccination to live a normal life again, and to allow the economy to fully reopen; or is it less bad to keep Covid as an ongoing issue to avoid the possibility that a future government uses them to introduce ID cards by the back door?
    It is less bad to keep covid frankly, if I wanted governement tracking I would emigrate to China. My statements about crytography is debunking the "There cant be fakes" view of some. Will fakes be the majority hell no but they will be available

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccine-passports-idUSL8N2M05AB
    "There's absolutely no point in arresting Jeffrey Epstein for being a rapist, if there are going to be other rapists wandering around" - @Pagan2, 2021.
    Where did I say people found with fake ones wouldn't be arrested? You forget here energy. I can get a fake vaxport with a couple of clicks....I can vaccines by travelling somewhere taking up my time twice a few weeks apart. Let us remember bothering to walk a few minutes to a polling booth is to much for some people
    Your point was that because some people would be using fake ones, there would be no utility to them. I.e., it suggests that you need 100% uptake for them to work.

    That's exactly the same as saying that because we can't catch all rapists, there's no point in catching 99% of them.
    You need a certain percentage to make them more than theatre yes. I don't think you would disagree that if 90% were using fake ones the sytem is worthless. We are arguing about at what percentage the system becomes little more than theatre
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    glw said:

    Pagan2 said:

    My point of view is we have to unlock the economy can't take much more

    If vaccines work then we are all good and no need for vaccine passports
    If vaccines dont work then we still need to unlock and therefore no need for vaccine passports

    Half the point, maybe more, of vaccine passports is to make the vaccine reluctant think "I'd better get a vaccine". In a way the scheme works best if it's not needed. Hell if the government were really sneaky and clever they could get away with spending basically nothing on it.
    It's already implemented (Mostly)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    @Pagan2 - why is it that none of your nightmare scenarios for vaxports (botnet takedown, massive fraud, etc) seem to have actually happened in any of the other places where they've been tried?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The first rule of cryptography is that the moment more than one person has a key the key is potentially compromised

    I think you're confused about the nature of public and private keys. Public keys can be given to multiple users and mean that that user can encrypt the file so that only someone with the private key can decrypt it. But they won't help with decryption whatsoever.
    Not at all confused as I spent 5 years working with the system. The important key is the one on government servers. It encrypts the data sent out which creates the qr code , then when the qr code is scanned receives the data and decrypts it and checks it. The government keys will be on the darknet before you can say boo to a goose allowing people to create vaxports at will that will pass muster
    Why would I need to decrypt the message, all I need to do is use the data available to verify that the contents match the signature.

    You dont need to decrypt it. Government server sends you encrypted data which is used to build a qr code still the data is encrypted...you scan it, sent to government server that decrypts it to make sure its one they sent out and checks your status then sends back yes or no.....where in that did you decrypt anything?
    So why did you talk about Decryption and cryptography then (especially as I'm now certain you haven't a clue about what you are talking about.

    The options are:-

    Locally - verify a signed dataset using a public key
    Networked - talk to a Government server who confirms the record you are checking is valid.

    Both have plus points and minus points and the reality is that you could easily offer both...
    Because I havent been as I said to richard the weakness isnt cryptography in this it is people and people will take those keys and sell them. There also as in the case of dvds might be the problem of vulnerabilities in the system allowing people to extract those keys. Cryptography is largely irrelevant we are discussing access to keys. Its not encryption that is weak it is safeguarding the keys that is weak
    The private keys are probably locked in inaccessible vaults with AWS or Azure - they really shouldn't be sat on an human accessible server and I really don't think they will be.

    And I don't know about AWS but Azure Keyvaults are not accessible to anyone, if you want access to an actual private key, your only option is to generate a new one and send the private key to those who want it.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,363

    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:
    It is entirely possible that an early version of Covid, maybe one with an R of 1.1, circulated for some time. And then, as with the Delta variant, a small mutation caused a dramatic increase in R, and it took off.

    I suspect if we were on chinapoliticalbetting.com, then @Shīzi* would be ranting eloquently about how this was proof that the West had invented Covid and smuggled it into China to fuck them over, and that it was practically an act of war.

    * Leon in Chinese
    PB without @Leon is like eating pizza without the pineapple!
    No it isn't.. he would be there in an instant under another name
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The first rule of cryptography is that the moment more than one person has a key the key is potentially compromised

    I think you're confused about the nature of public and private keys. Public keys can be given to multiple users and mean that that user can encrypt the file so that only someone with the private key can decrypt it. But they won't help with decryption whatsoever.
    Not at all confused as I spent 5 years working with the system. The important key is the one on government servers. It encrypts the data sent out which creates the qr code , then when the qr code is scanned receives the data and decrypts it and checks it. The government keys will be on the darknet before you can say boo to a goose allowing people to create vaxports at will that will pass muster
    Why would I need to decrypt the message, all I need to do is use the data available to verify that the contents match the signature.

    You dont need to decrypt it. Government server sends you encrypted data which is used to build a qr code still the data is encrypted...you scan it, sent to government server that decrypts it to make sure its one they sent out and checks your status then sends back yes or no.....where in that did you decrypt anything?
    So why did you talk about Decryption and cryptography then (especially as I'm now certain you haven't a clue about what you are talking about.

    The options are:-

    Locally - verify a signed dataset using a public key
    Networked - talk to a Government server who confirms the record you are checking is valid.

    Both have plus points and minus points and the reality is that you could easily offer both...
    Because I havent been as I said to richard the weakness isnt cryptography in this it is people and people will take those keys and sell them. There also as in the case of dvds might be the problem of vulnerabilities in the system allowing people to extract those keys. Cryptography is largely irrelevant we are discussing access to keys. Its not encryption that is weak it is safeguarding the keys that is weak
    The private keys are probably locked in inaccessible vaults with AWS or Azure - they really shouldn't be sat on an human accessible server and I really don't think they will be.

    And I don't know about AWS but Azure Keyvaults are not accessible to anyone, if you want access to an actual private key, your only option is to generate a new one and send the private key to those who want it.
    AWS has the same concept.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    rcs1000 said:

    @Pagan2 - why is it that none of your nightmare scenarios for vaxports (botnet takedown, massive fraud, etc) seem to have actually happened in any of the other places where they've been tried?

    I did link you an article about the availabilty of fake vaxports already
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Pagan2 said:

    Because I havent been as I said to richard the weakness isnt cryptography in this it is people and people will take those keys and sell them. There also as in the case of dvds might be the problem of vulnerabilities in the system allowing people to extract those keys. Cryptography is largely irrelevant we are discussing access to keys. Its not encryption that is weak it is safeguarding the keys that is weak

    Signing keys will likely reside in hardware security modules on a fairly limited number of servers, those keys will also likely have limits on the number of certificates they sign and short lifetimes. The real master keys will never go near a network. So nobody is likely to be able to pinch anything that brings the whole system crashing down.

    Besides that after 30 days everybody will have had to get a new certificate anyway, so the systems effectively resets on a monthly basis.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    If it is just on the users phones then its easily forgeable and therefore pointless. I just get a friend to take a screenshot of theirs. Same with a paper version
    Come on @Pagan2, you're smarter than that. It's incredibly easy for everybody to have a "seed" and then for the barcode to change every 30 seconds.

    But let's ignore that for a second.

    The reality is that there are successful vaxport apps in New York, Israel and Denmark - and those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. None of those systems seem to have any particular issues, as far as I can see.

    That means that they are far impossible.

    Now, a perfectly reasonably objection to this, is that it is the thin end of the wedge that leads to identity cards, tracking and the rest. And that's a perfectly reasonable objection.

    But it's real world choices time here: is it less bad to allow those who *choose* vaccination to live a normal life again, and to allow the economy to fully reopen; or is it less bad to keep Covid as an ongoing issue to avoid the possibility that a future government uses them to introduce ID cards by the back door?
    It is less bad to keep covid frankly, if I wanted governement tracking I would emigrate to China. My statements about crytography is debunking the "There cant be fakes" view of some. Will fakes be the majority hell no but they will be available

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccine-passports-idUSL8N2M05AB
    "There's absolutely no point in arresting Jeffrey Epstein for being a rapist, if there are going to be other rapists wandering around" - @Pagan2, 2021.
    Where did I say people found with fake ones wouldn't be arrested? You forget here energy. I can get a fake vaxport with a couple of clicks....I can vaccines by travelling somewhere taking up my time twice a few weeks apart. Let us remember bothering to walk a few minutes to a polling booth is to much for some people
    Your point was that because some people would be using fake ones, there would be no utility to them. I.e., it suggests that you need 100% uptake for them to work.

    That's exactly the same as saying that because we can't catch all rapists, there's no point in catching 99% of them.
    You need a certain percentage to make them more than theatre yes. I don't think you would disagree that if 90% were using fake ones the sytem is worthless. We are arguing about at what percentage the system becomes little more than theatre
    Well, shall we take the real world as an example? What proportion of people in Israel, Denmark and New York are using fake vaxports?

    I'm going for 0.1% or less.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2021
    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    Pulpstar said:

    Vaccine passport or -ve test is already being used at some clubs. One in Bristol, and err Slimes at electrowerkz....... (Which isn't really competing for the same market as other London nights ;) )

    There will be a market, for a couple of months and in a big city, for a nightclub that insists on vaccinations or tests.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    If it is just on the users phones then its easily forgeable and therefore pointless. I just get a friend to take a screenshot of theirs. Same with a paper version
    I believe one of the debates happening in government is about the 'easy to fraud' problem.
    They can debate all they want but like most things governments dont have the brightest people working for them, the brightest in it are outside and delight in a challenge of breaking things wide open and figuring out how to
    Delighting in working out how to bring an increased risk of Covid infection into a nightclub because you are unjabbed, most people are sensible and will comply
    I am not unjabbed I merely refuse to take part in your illiberal bollocks of vaxports the tories can fuck off
    Being double vaccinated reduces your chance of transmitting Covid by up to 60%, it is simply common sense if we are to encourage confidence in going to nightclubs again
    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduce-transmission-how-does-work#:~:text=It found immunisation with either,people who weren't vaccinated.
    lololol - people are already going to nightclubs you apologist loon. They're going in confidence. A vax passport n 2 months is the ultimate stable door closed late.
    It depends what horse in the stable you're trying to protect.

    If its to prevent Covid cases spreading now, then you're right.

    If its to prevent the NHS collapsing under the strain of Covid cases during winter flu season then a vax passport in 2 months time (plus the exit wave of the virus burning out in the summer) is timed to perfection.
    Why would Covid cause a winter collapse? Haven't you and the other Unlock Now Forever advocates told us that its all over? Come on, you aren't backing a vax passport are you?
    I think vaxxports are the best way to encourage the laggards. It seems to be working in France. When boosters start it will be quite important.
    Laggards? Identify them put them in the stocks?

    Other than the clarity provided by our libertarian pirates: let it rip and purge those who shun the vaccine, it’s getting so muddled isn’t it?

    Not everyone who hasn’t been vaccinated has simply made a bad decision. So I see governments policy as the other way around to be honest - end output the government working back from and concerned about so trying to achieve isn’t reward who is goody gumdrops and produces legit vaxpass, the problem people to be identified are not for the stocks, these unvaccinated you are prime minister for are those under threat, that’s what behaviours are for, it’s for them, your duty of care to them, stop this turning into some sort of bloody minded purge.

    Take Osborne saying we are all in this together. we are not, we are now the jabbed and the jabs not, and that needs government action. Take 62 Maria’s for example, every age from 18 to 80 and not jabbed. How do you now solve a problem like Maria? That’s why government want Jabs AND Behaviours, probably for some time to come. They are struggling to define that as working measures though, not just playing carrot and stick, they genuinely feel they need behaviour controls. And they are looking from Libertarianism to authoritarian to give them a steer. China would manage those behaviours wouldn’t they?

    That Libertarian pirate position that let it rip, is wrong for a government to take. The government knows that. But it doesn’t know what it actually wants or how to achieve it.

    It’s becoming a mess.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Yes, but now hundreds of trans activists have threatened to beat, rape, assassinate and bomb me I’ve realised that this movement poses no risk to women whatsoever.

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1417067152956399619?s=20
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    On Thursday 22 July, vaccination uptake for the UK, nations and Scottish local authorities will be updated to use the mid-2020 population estimates.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    There are some idiots around, aren't there? Get vaccinated, save yourself £500.
    And a fine and criminal record.

    You're a LibDem you say?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    RobD said:
    And from January / February when as part of a rush job the Israel Government issued unsigned certificates for convenience.

  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    RobD said:
    RCS said 0.1%
    quote from that article
    A black market for counterfeit vaccination certificates is already thriving on Telegram, where more than 100,000 users have joined groups that offer the forgeries at a price, Channel 12 reported.
    That is already over 1% and only telegram users. So already over 10 times his estimate
  • Options
    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths

    I suppose the big question is what comes on Wednesday as that seems to be the step change normally.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:
    RCS said 0.1%
    quote from that article
    A black market for counterfeit vaccination certificates is already thriving on Telegram, where more than 100,000 users have joined groups that offer the forgeries at a price, Channel 12 reported.
    That is already over 1% and only telegram users. So already over 10 times his estimate
    No, that's not over 1%. Unless you are suggesting that they all got one?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm struggling a bit with these "vaxports" - for whom are they intended? Younger people, once presumes, who are either waiting for or who have opted not to be vaccinated.

    In Newham, 150,000 adults have yet to be vaccinated - as I said last night, will every restaurant be legally obliged to check everyone's vaccine status before admission? That won't happen in my neck of the woods.

    Are Lingfield Park going to insist the 500 or so who turn up for a midweek all weather meeting are properly vaccinated ? What about Premier League football or League 2 ?

    I'm struggling to understand the problem we are trying to resolve. The continued and continuing vaccination rollout must be the priority - fine, no problem there - but I'm struggling with this notion of one life for the vaccinated, another for the unvaccinated.

    This smacks of the old adage that the Government is only interested in what its supporters think -perhaps but that's not how democratic systems should operate. Once the election is over, the Government governs for us all, whether supporters or not, vaccinated or not.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,293
    MaxPB said:

    Ultimately, I think vaccine passports won't get implemented in September. Instead the government will say 51m have done their first doses and 49m both so what's the point.

    Yep. There won't be vaccine passports for clubs etc in this country. It's a ploy to encourage the youth of today to get the vaccine.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm struggling a bit with these "vaxports" - for whom are they intended? Younger people, once presumes, who are either waiting for or who have opted not to be vaccinated.

    In Newham, 150,000 adults have yet to be vaccinated - as I said last night, will every restaurant be legally obliged to check everyone's vaccine status before admission? That won't happen in my neck of the woods.

    Are Lingfield Park going to insist the 500 or so who turn up for a midweek all weather meeting are properly vaccinated ? What about Premier League football or League 2 ?

    I'm struggling to understand the problem we are trying to resolve. The continued and continuing vaccination rollout must be the priority - fine, no problem there - but I'm struggling with this notion of one life for the vaccinated, another for the unvaccinated.

    This smacks of the old adage that the Government is only interested in what its supporters think -perhaps but that's not how democratic systems should operate. Once the election is over, the Government governs for us all, whether supporters or not, vaccinated or not.

    I think the primary objective is to get more people vaccinated. You saw the immediate effect it had in France when their proposals were announced.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655
    Looks like we are back to "Murder Tuesday". At least we are past the peak of cases...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    698 England admissions on Sunday vs 502 the previous week. The seven-day average is 634 vs 460 a week ago (37.9% up).

    3,894 beds occupied vs 2,970 last Tuesday(31.1% up).

    544 ventilation beds occupied vs 470 last Monday (15.7% up: smallest week-on-week increase for some time).


    https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1417499460247097346?s=20
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths

    Have we had the Sunday Euros final surge yet?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:
    RCS said 0.1%
    quote from that article
    A black market for counterfeit vaccination certificates is already thriving on Telegram, where more than 100,000 users have joined groups that offer the forgeries at a price, Channel 12 reported.
    That is already over 1% and only telegram users. So already over 10 times his estimate
    No, that's not over 1%. Unless you are suggesting that they all got one?
    Why would you join a telegram group offering fakes if you didnt want one? Even if they didnt buy one its obvious the desire for one is there. And lets not forget israel isnt even in the top 10 countries for telegram use. I am sure whatsapp etc have similar channels
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited July 2021
    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At least today’s billionaires are interested in improving the state of technology. Awesome to watch.

    The thing is Branson's technology is a dead-end. At least New Shepard is being built by a rocket company that is also building a humongous rocket (and New Glenn will be humongous; it's just that SH/SS resets the terms.)

    BTW, I hate the name 'Starship'. Starship has a definition that has been used for well over 100 years: a vessel that can be used for interstellar travel. SS never will. It's another Muskian over-promise.
    Excuse my ignorance, but is it a complete dead end? Could it not be fitted with more fuel, and get ever higher? Is there a limit that its design pushes against?
    IANAE, but Branson's SpaceShip III is based on SSII, which in itself is based on SpaceShip, which won the XPrize back in 2003/4. Back then, Branson was selling tickets for a couple of years time. It's taken them over 16 years. In that time, they've killed four people and built a massive carrier aircraft, White Knight 2. My guess would be that the limit is not just the size of propellant tanks on SSIII, but the lift capability of White Knight. I also guess that going faster or higher in SSIII would generate more heating and might cause problems with their folding-wing system.

    Likewise, New Shepard can't really be scaled up that much - which is why they're building a much larger rocket.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051

    Looks like we are back to "Murder Tuesday". At least we are past the peak of cases...

    How can you say that for sure? Far to early to call the peak IMO.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:
    RCS said 0.1%
    quote from that article
    A black market for counterfeit vaccination certificates is already thriving on Telegram, where more than 100,000 users have joined groups that offer the forgeries at a price, Channel 12 reported.
    That is already over 1% and only telegram users. So already over 10 times his estimate
    No, that's not over 1%. Unless you are suggesting that they all got one?
    Why would you join a telegram group offering fakes if you didnt want one? Even if they didnt buy one its obvious the desire for one is there. And lets not forget israel isnt even in the top 10 countries for telegram use. I am sure whatsapp etc have similar channels
    Because there is a whole world of difference between joining a group and sending money. Still, even 1% is a tiny fraction.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007

    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths

    Have we had the Sunday Euros final surge yet?
    Probably not - last Tuesday's figure was 36,660 so today's is 27% high than this time last week.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
    That's what happened last summer.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    lol my MSOA has cases up 270% to a rate of 825 in the last 7 days.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,100

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At least today’s billionaires are interested in improving the state of technology. Awesome to watch.

    The thing is Branson's technology is a dead-end. At least New Shepard is being built by a rocket company that is also building a humongous rocket (and New Glenn will be humongous; it's just that SH/SS resets the terms.)

    BTW, I hate the name 'Starship'. Starship has a definition that has been used for well over 100 years: a vessel that can be used for interstellar travel. SS never will. It's another Muskian over-promise.
    Excuse my ignorance, but is it a complete dead end? Could it not be fitted with more fuel, and get ever higher? Is there a limit that its design pushes against?
    IANAE, but Branson's SpaceShip III is based on SSII, which in itself is based on SpaceShip, which won the XPrize back in 2003/4.
    I am not an extra-terrestrial?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
    Indeed. As I said I look forward to S2 of Clarkson's Farm where Cheerful Charlie confronts 2,000 illegal ravers in the rape.

    But at least all the old, white, well-off blokes on PB are convinced that it is a good idea.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877
    RobD said:


    I think the primary objective is to get more people vaccinated. You saw the immediate effect it had in France when their proposals were announced.

    Ah, so, as the French don't say "le stick contre le carrot".

    Have we evidence vaccination take-up among young people is particularly low? Obviously, not all will have had a second vaccination yet given the 8-week gap.

    Will it produce a push of demand in Newham for example where lack of take up isn't restricted to younger people? I'm not wholly convinced.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    There are some idiots around, aren't there? Get vaccinated, save yourself £500.
    And a fine and criminal record.

    You're a LibDem you say?
    Yes, but I don't write policy.

    I think that deliberately falsifying vaccine documentation is worthy of a fine and criminal record.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051
    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
    ....


  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655
    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    Who would want a certificate to confirm that they have received a fake vaccine?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
    Indeed. As I said I look forward to S2 of Clarkson's Farm where Cheerful Charlie confronts 2,000 illegal ravers in the rape.

    But at least all the old, white, well-off blokes on PB are convinced that it is a good idea.
    Open air raves are safe(ish) from a transmission perspective though..
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:
    RCS said 0.1%
    quote from that article
    A black market for counterfeit vaccination certificates is already thriving on Telegram, where more than 100,000 users have joined groups that offer the forgeries at a price, Channel 12 reported.
    That is already over 1% and only telegram users. So already over 10 times his estimate
    Telegram group members != people who are using fake vaccine certificates

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    It's a pretty shitty vehicle you are in to achieve your aim. Weren't you the libertarian?

    I come back to my original point - is this to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    Yes, but now hundreds of trans activists have threatened to beat, rape, assassinate and bomb me I’ve realised that this movement poses no risk to women whatsoever.

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1417067152956399619?s=20

    Rowling has been brilliant on this, precisely because she’s incapable of being cancelled, and doesn’t have to care if she never earns any more money.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Maffew said:

    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths

    I suppose the big question is what comes on Wednesday as that seems to be the step change normally.
    Yes, the LFT positives are actually down from last Monday which can be mapped fairly well to final PCR positives. Even day 0 PCR positives are down on last Tuesday. The issue last week was the football match causing loads of infections, this week hasn't had anything like that kind of indoor socialising, even with clubs open. That plus schools closing could result in a small fall in cases until the unlimited indoor socialising works into the system.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    Who would want a certificate to confirm that they have received a fake vaccine?
    I have one to say I have taken ivomectin nods and now not only did it cure my covid it also reduced my weight to a svelte 11 stone and made me irresistably attractive to younger ladies
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    It's a pretty shitty vehicle you are in to achieve your aim. Weren't you the libertarian?

    I come back to my original point - is this to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed?
    As I said I oppose it in principle.

    I can recognise things that work in practice, even if I object to them myself.

    Yes, it seems to be designed to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed in the winter. Which is why its being launched for September, because summer spread is OK but winter spread is the worry.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    60,000 peak by specimen date achieved interestingly. I think it'll go higher after a temp lull, the club effect of course hasn't kicked in yet.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    There are some idiots around, aren't there? Get vaccinated, save yourself £500.
    And a fine and criminal record.

    You're a LibDem you say?
    Yes, but I don't write policy.

    I think that deliberately falsifying vaccine documentation is worthy of a fine and criminal record.
    So first off you disagree with what is a flagship LibDem policy. Arguably the only LibDem policy (that anyone has heard of anyway).

    And when did a vaccine document become governed by law. What is that law, I wonder? Attending a nightclub while unvaccinated? What do you suggest?
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ultimately, I think vaccine passports won't get implemented in September. Instead the government will say 51m have done their first doses and 49m both so what's the point.

    Yep. There won't be vaccine passports for clubs etc in this country. It's a ploy to encourage the youth of today to get the vaccine.
    You all feel it’s just carrot and stick ploy.

    I don’t. I think the government genuinely want certain behaviour to protect the unvaccinated, and will bring in measures to ensure that control. The government are following a moral and ethical starting point in their seriousness there needs to be certain behaviour to maintain control of the pandemic.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    It's a pretty shitty vehicle you are in to achieve your aim. Weren't you the libertarian?

    I come back to my original point - is this to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed?
    As I said I oppose it in principle.

    I can recognise things that work in practice, even if I object to them myself.

    Yes, it seems to be designed to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed in the winter. Which is why its being launched for September, because summer spread is OK but winter spread is the worry.
    So with every other activity ongoing and unrestricted, it is restricting access to nightclubs that will save the NHS?

    Do you really think that that is it?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    Pagan2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    Will bring back the illegal rave scene. A good thing in my opinion our offspring are far too ready to bow to authority
    Bring life back to 1989, Ride On Time!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Pulpstar said:

    60,000 peak by specimen date achieved interestingly. I think it'll go higher after a temp lull, the club effect of course hasn't kicked in yet.

    Matches pretty much exactly to when wed expect the final to feed through into case numbers.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,076

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    gealbhan said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. Sorry, only just read the @Cyclefree PT header on the stubborn Tory poll lead. It's a very good helicopter piece.

    "If the choice is between the Tories and an empty space, the latter is unlikely to win."

    The above line jumped out at me. You read it and reflexively nod and think "too right". It's one of those.

    But then - if you're me - you dwell on it a while and wonder whether it is such a slam dunk. This government (and particularly this PM) are increasingly being viewed by anybody with eyes to see and ears to listen and noses to smell and mouths to - ok ok you get the picture - as an utter shambles. No principles. No competence. 'No' as in ZERO.

    They've got away with it so far (pollwise) but for how long? Brexit is shedding its potency as iconic wedge issue. Slowly, to be sure, but it is. They can poke the fires of its culture war aspect but is this enough to stay at 40%? I doubt it. Tough times lie ahead with the economy and in Fiscal Corner. Leveling Up, for example, has to move from soundbite to hard policy choices and this will piss some people off. If it doesn't it's not real and remains a soundbite. Which would also start to piss some people off, just a different bunch, those Leavers who voted for this agenda, believing it to be genuine. Because these folk are not total blithering idiots - not in the main and not all the time. Whatever, poll damage is coming either way. Ditto with Social Care. There are no votes in that. Only negative ones if you get serious about it. Ask Andy Burnham or Theresa May. So the same choice there. A solid plan and loss of popularity or a cop out and loss of popularity.

    Now we have this mismanaged exit from the pandemic. Plus (the header here) further damaging reveals from Cummings - who was right there in the middle of it - about the response and attitude throughout. The PM at key moments in thrall to bizarre right-wing 'contrarians' for heaven's sake, most of them no wiser than our PB one. His focus not on preventing Covid running amok in England and killing tens of thousands but on something far more important - impressing the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator.

    I could go on. The challenge is to stop. But I can do that too. I'm going out maskless in a minute. Big moment. The point is, surely all of this shit is probably going to lead within a year to the Cons polling no better than mid 30s. And then come the GE, given things can only get worse, if the choice is indeed between more of the same or a nice cool empty space fronted by a non-scary, competent, decent sounding bloke who looks like he could run a whelk stall and could manage to tell the truth every now and again, well for me that's a toss up.

    I take issue with 'poke the fires of its culture war aspect'. Blaming the right for the culture war is like blaming Poland for World War Two. The right isn't trying to move back to 1953, it just doesn't want to be dragged forward to year zero. All the movement on the culture war is from the left. The right isn't trying to rewrite history. The right is, occasionally, suggesting that perhaps the left might be going a bit too far.
    Now you're astute, and you'll notice I'm saying 'the left' and not 'the Labour Party'. SKS is trying his hardest to avoid the loonier fringes of the culture war, though his party occasionally drag him into it. But to the electorate as a whole, that's not enough. Neil Kinnock was no culture warrior. But the culture warriors of the wider left - the ILEA, for example - lost him votes. How does SKS distance Labour from the likes of Zarah Sultana and Nadia Whittome?

    EDIT - and have you read the Telegraph or the Spectator recently? If the PM has been trying to impress the Telegraph and the Spectator, he's going about it abysmally. What he's trying to do (and succeeding) is to impress the authoritarian lobby which want more laws on other people (like @gealbhan yesterday - although I wasn't sure how serious he was).

    EDIT2: And good luck going maskless. Enjoy exchanging smiles with other demaskers!
    As named, I’ll explain.

    My point being the argument between authoritarian and libertarian is not a left right one, nor is it a case of one side being right, the other wrong. It’s a case of both should listen to the other and debate the other, to help get things right.

    It shows up clearly in Covid politics, commentators in the Telegraph (Conservative in party politics, split between libertarian and authoritarian in Covid response) and the Daily Mail (Conservative till sixties, populist right since) also to a smaller degree split between authoritarian and libertarian, though tending toward libertarian in editorial.

    In downing street yesterday, JVT Libertarian, open nite clubs, Vallance authoritarian, against doing it right now.

    But with the success of vaccines, things have now moved on, old media and new media like this blog very slow to realise how things have moved. It’s never been, if not now then when, it was always going to be how, post vaccine.

    It’s not about vaccines now, it’s about behaviours. The horse taken to water (jabbed) could say the easier equation than getting it to drink (behaviour) hence now proper debate required between authoritarian and libertarian to achieve those behaviours.

    The government have already decided the road ahead and won’t u turn. My evidence? The main headline this lunchtime, government no intention to tackle pingdemic, they are determined to generate it, latest missive from Downing Street, if you are pinged then isolate.

    So if you delete the app, ie show the wrong behaviour, the government won’t concede to you, they will coerce you into the behaviours in the end.

    I don’t make this up, I’m just the messenger where for many the penny hasn’t dropped yet.
    Marginally following this up, isn't one of Labour's problems that very few of the real choices we face are left v right. A number of left issues are over, and therefore discounted. The NHS, free education to 18, not being an imperial power, social housing, payments to those not in work, House of Lords reform, minimum wage, employment rights, high taxes on the rich, health and safety etc. The centre left has won all the battles, and the centre right occupies what would have been a centre/centre left position.

    Covid, Brexit, China, Russia, Islamic extremism, free speech, debt and deficit, the state of the UK union - none of these have obvious left v right alternative solutions.

    The game has changed. I think so far the Tories have been better at silently shifting. Labour members still seem to think that the very people who vote in Patel, Sunak, Kwarteng and Nadhim Zahawi are filthy racists because they don't think Diane Abbott, Dawn Butler and Zarah Sultana are outstanding politicians.

    The next left/right debate is UBI (and the terms of that debate will, in part be set by the experience of furlough, and our economic path over the next 5 years or so).

    I think the left is at *extreme* danger of being outflanked on this by the right, with a post-industrial market-economy argument being made (and won) for its introduction by a future Tory administration, while Labour sits it out, scared of frightening the middle-england horses.
    There is no debate to be had, UBI which is enough to live on is unaffordable
    UBI already exists in this country, we just don't call it that and we have an extremely high real marginal income tax on it.

    A sensible UBI introduction would be to merge existing things together, sort out the tax rates so they're sensible, then call it UBI. Not introduce massive new benefits.

    A bit like Osborne introducing a Living Wage, based upon the pre-existing Minimum Wage and not dramatically different.
    UBI will not work until they sort out housing benefit, specifically in London and the south.

    The current numbers require something like £1k a month for an adult, £500 for a child, and an income tax rate of 35% with no personal allowance. Then start making allowances for behavioural changes, all of which will be on the downside for the Chancellor.
    Don't like it, don't get it - handouts for sitting at home make zero sense to me. I take the 'Judge Judy' approach to welfare!
    The entire point of a UBI, as opposed to UC/JSA etc is that its not a handout for sitting at home.

    What we have today is handouts encouraging people to stay at home.
    I t further weakens the notion of self-help and nurse knows best. No thanks.
    Actually it does the complete opposite.

    UC/JSA weakens the notion of self-help because it pays people to not be working. Work and "you lose your benefits". If you fail to work, you're paid for that.

    UBI reinforces the notion of self-help as you get the UBI whether you work or not. Fail to work, you're not given any extra money than those who do work, so you're the one who suffers.
    You can only claim JSA now if able bodied if you have made enough NI contributions when in work, so JSA now encourages self-help.

    UBI would be paid to anyone, whether a billionaire or multimillionaire in a mansion or someone out of work in a council house.
    Are you sure you can't get any benefits without NI contributions? I don't think you're right.

    That its paid to a millionaire or in a council house, is the entire point of universality. By paying it to everyone you get rid of the 'poverty trap' and ensure that its not worth anyone not working because if they don't work they only hurt themselves.

    The millionaire getting the benefit should just see the benefit offset against the taxes they owe, no different to how the tax-free allowance always worked prior to it being written off for highest earners.
    You can't get JSA now without NI contributions no, only UC.
    https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/eligibility

    I fail to see why the average taxpayer should fund a benefit to millionaires or why it should mean the millionaire then gets a tax cut instead.

    Because you're not thinking straight.

    By taxing away the benefits you're not affecting the millionaires marginal tax rate at all.

    The people who have a high marginal tax rate and suffer from means testing are the poor not the rich.

    The richest who are paying hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds a year in taxes getting a tiny amount back in 'universal benefits' is a rounding error for them, but its incredibly meaningful for the people not facing 75% marginal tax rates anymore.
    UC means the poor and out of work are not facing 75% marginal tax rates anymore, as it only reduces their benefits gradually as their working hours increase and earnings up to £12,750 pay no income tax at all
    If you are 23 or older working minimum wage then you hit the earnings threshold at 27.5 hours per week. Only working six hours a day, with a half hour lunch break, takes you to £12,750.

    If you are working 30 hours a week at £8.91 minimum wage and getting UC then what is your marginal tax rate?

    Taking into account Income Tax, National Insurance and UC Taper what marginal tax rate are you facing if you get a job offer for 40 hours a week instead of 30 hours per week?
    An argument for cutting taxes further for those earning under £20k, not for paying multimillionaires a UBI
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    46,558 Daily number of people tested positive reported on 20 July 2021
    96 deaths

    Tomorrow is the big question mark: will it leap to 60,000... or will it stay at around the 50k mark. If the latter, it's clearly very positive.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At least today’s billionaires are interested in improving the state of technology. Awesome to watch.

    The thing is Branson's technology is a dead-end. At least New Shepard is being built by a rocket company that is also building a humongous rocket (and New Glenn will be humongous; it's just that SH/SS resets the terms.)

    BTW, I hate the name 'Starship'. Starship has a definition that has been used for well over 100 years: a vessel that can be used for interstellar travel. SS never will. It's another Muskian over-promise.
    Excuse my ignorance, but is it a complete dead end? Could it not be fitted with more fuel, and get ever higher? Is there a limit that its design pushes against?
    IANAE, but Branson's SpaceShip III is based on SSII, which in itself is based on SpaceShip, which won the XPrize back in 2003/4.
    I am not an extra-terrestrial?
    Oh, I wish people wouldn't be so sodding silly on PB. everyone knows what IANAE means:

    I Am Not An Eadric.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,856
    Pagan2 said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    Who would want a certificate to confirm that they have received a fake vaccine?
    I have one to say I have taken ivomectin nods and now not only did it cure my covid it also reduced my weight to a svelte 11 stone and made me irresistably attractive to younger ladies
    Er, are you sure you took the right pills?

    https://www.healthline.com/health/diet-and-weight-loss/tapeworm-diet#sourceses

    (and no, ivermectin doesn't work on tapeworms)

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1471492217300624
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,100
    Pulpstar said:

    60,000 peak by specimen date achieved interestingly. I think it'll go higher after a temp lull, the club effect of course hasn't kicked in yet.

    Although young people going clubbing will be disproportionately unlikely to tested if they get mild or asymptomatic covid, so that might suppress the reported case number.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    Leon said:

    Greetings PB-ers

    I AM SORRY FOR THAT NASTY REMARK ABOUT THE GERMANS DROWNING

    It was - genuinely - a joke, but I understand some did not take it that way, and I apologise to anyone I offended

    For the sake of clarity, I have also removed my DVD of "Dambusters", smashed it into tiny pieces with a clawhammer, put the grainy remnants in a bin, and had the bin legally incinerated.

    I then gathered the ashes of the incinerated bin containing tiny remnants of the smashed up DVD of "Dambusters", and I poured them all into a sealed leaden urn which was then airlifted to Switzerland and swiftly taken underground where it was torn into fundamental particles in the super-collider at CERN, which means the final atoms are now probably rolling into the Rhine. Ironically.

    And we were so looking forward to seeing what the trade of your next reincarnation would be?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051

    Pulpstar said:

    60,000 peak by specimen date achieved interestingly. I think it'll go higher after a temp lull, the club effect of course hasn't kicked in yet.

    Although young people going clubbing will be disproportionately unlikely to tested if they get mild or asymptomatic covid, so that might suppress the reported case number.
    Indeed. Many young guns will avoid being tested like, erm, the plague, because they don't want to risk ten day's at Her Majesty's Pleasure in their own flat in the middle of summer.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655

    Looks like we are back to "Murder Tuesday". At least we are past the peak of cases...

    How can you say that for sure? Far to early to call the peak IMO.
    Sorry, I'm trolling. My forecast is a peak of 70,001 on Friday this week.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    This is increasingly my view. We need to encourage high vaccine take-up, because given the infectiousness of Delta, getting 90+% of adults, plus essentially all teenagers, vaccinated is required for us to get over this thing.

    Younger people are far more likely to engage in less socially distanced activities (like pubs, clubs etc.). They are therefore the group that it is most important to get jabbed.

    But the data is that these groups are not getting jabbed at a rapid pace. It is therefore in the interests of all that we encourage vaccine take-up by making participation in certain events dependent on presentation of a Vaxport.

    This is a public health issue. We have no problems in requiring restaurants not to spread salmonella, it doesn't seem unreasonable that we put in measures to stop people spreading Covid.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,377
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings PB-ers

    I AM SORRY FOR THAT NASTY REMARK ABOUT THE GERMANS DROWNING

    It was - genuinely - a joke, but I understand some did not take it that way, and I apologise to anyone I offended

    For the sake of clarity, I have also removed my DVD of "Dambusters", smashed it into tiny pieces with a clawhammer, put the grainy remnants in a bin, and had the bin legally incinerated.

    I then gathered the ashes of the incinerated bin containing tiny remnants of the smashed up DVD of "Dambusters", and I poured them all into a sealed leaden urn which was then airlifted to Switzerland and swiftly taken underground where it was torn into fundamental particles in the super-collider at CERN, which means the final atoms are now probably rolling into the Rhine. Ironically.

    And we were so looking forward to seeing what the trade of your next reincarnation would be?
    I toyed with becoming a Gelato-Flavourist of Color from Gospel Oak, but I am glad and grateful to be back as me, Leon the Flint Knapper and I promise never to be mean about anyone or anything ever again, or at least for a good few weeks
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655
    stodge said:

    RobD said:


    I think the primary objective is to get more people vaccinated. You saw the immediate effect it had in France when their proposals were announced.

    Ah, so, as the French don't say "le stick contre le carrot".

    Have we evidence vaccination take-up among young people is particularly low? Obviously, not all will have had a second vaccination yet given the 8-week gap.

    Will it produce a push of demand in Newham for example where lack of take up isn't restricted to younger people? I'm not wholly convinced.

    Extend the vaxport to places of worship.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    edited July 2021

    Cookie said:

    Bywire News™
    @bywirenews
    ·
    1h
    NEW: Keir Starmer has almost bankrupted the Labour Party.

    The party’s financial reserves are down to just one months’ payroll - with senior staff blaming a huge swathe of lost members and legal fees.

    Labour were the richest party in Britain under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

    So with a reduction in subs from fly by night Trots who have scabbed off, and a reduction in union subs from Red Len, Starmer needs to go after private sector benefactors. No problem.
    He has being trying to make good the shortfall from wealthy individuals ever since he became leader.

    Unsurprisingly he has failed as he inspires nobody but a few anti Corbyn cranks

    I am sure the staff losing their jobs will be extremely impressed by the success of your plan.
    He needs the donations to keep the staff. Should have done it earlier of course.

    Your argument is well made though. Without Corbyn the party is bankrupt. Which is why there should be an amicable divorce - let Labour Against the Witchhunt and Corbyn and the anti-semites and Chris Williamson stay, and have Starmer and the members and the voters leave.

    The negative is that you'll lose the handful of trot MPs like Sultana who stay with you. The positive is that you'll have a large pot of money to defend the party against the endless legal cases. Well, until its all spent of course.
    Oh how I wish that would happen. A Labour party shorn of the likes of Williamson and Corbyn and Sultana and all the people who support them would be one I could support. It could certainly recapture the centre ground from the Tories. At the expense of losing the far left, of course, but I think the prize would be worth it.

    I don't wish to be rude, Rochdale, but have you had some good news or something today? The tone of your posts is a bit different and more like the Rochdale of Teesside days. Apologies if I am reading too much into things.
    I'm the same me as always :)
    @Cookie
    He is living in God's country, how could he not be happy
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    stodge said:

    RobD said:


    I think the primary objective is to get more people vaccinated. You saw the immediate effect it had in France when their proposals were announced.

    Ah, so, as the French don't say "le stick contre le carrot".

    Have we evidence vaccination take-up among young people is particularly low? Obviously, not all will have had a second vaccination yet given the 8-week gap.

    Will it produce a push of demand in Newham for example where lack of take up isn't restricted to younger people? I'm not wholly convinced.

    Yes, only around 60% of under 30s have had their first dose and they've all been able to get one for weeks. It's a very low number and well below what was expected from the polling. Most of that is "I'll do it later" IMO which is why I think the threat of the vaccine passport will push that rate up to 90% and the under 40s rate up to 90% as well.

    As for Newham, the issue is completely different. It isn't young people, it's older Muslim people who are turning it down for spurious reasons. I don't know how to tackle it, but I do think that people have agency and they've chose not to be vaccinated so the responsibility is now on them.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,243

    Yes, but now hundreds of trans activists have threatened to beat, rape, assassinate and bomb me I’ve realised that this movement poses no risk to women whatsoever.

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1417067152956399619?s=20


    The follow ups to,that post make pretty depressing reading from the testosterone fuelled trans brigade. From simply saying she deserves it to some rather libellous comments which I won’t repeat here but are clearly absurd. Good for her for standing up to this vicious, violent, misogynist mob.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Leon said:

    Greetings PB-ers

    I AM SORRY FOR THAT NASTY REMARK ABOUT THE GERMANS DROWNING

    It was - genuinely - a joke, but I understand some did not take it that way, and I apologise to anyone I offended

    For the sake of clarity, I have also removed my DVD of "Dambusters", smashed it into tiny pieces with a clawhammer, put the grainy remnants in a bin, and had the bin legally incinerated.

    I then gathered the ashes of the incinerated bin containing tiny remnants of the smashed up DVD of "Dambusters", and I poured them all into a sealed leaden urn which was then airlifted to Switzerland and swiftly taken underground where it was torn into fundamental particles in the super-collider at CERN, which means the final atoms are now probably rolling into the Rhine. Ironically.

    Easily the most bizarre non apology in human and extra terrestrial history.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Leon said:

    Greetings PB-ers

    I AM SORRY FOR THAT NASTY REMARK ABOUT THE GERMANS DROWNING

    It was - genuinely - a joke, but I understand some did not take it that way, and I apologise to anyone I offended

    For the sake of clarity, I have also removed my DVD of "Dambusters", smashed it into tiny pieces with a clawhammer, put the grainy remnants in a bin, and had the bin legally incinerated.

    I then gathered the ashes of the incinerated bin containing tiny remnants of the smashed up DVD of "Dambusters", and I poured them all into a sealed leaden urn which was then airlifted to Switzerland and swiftly taken underground where it was torn into fundamental particles in the super-collider at CERN, which means the final atoms are now probably rolling into the Rhine. Ironically.

    An apology. Excellent. If only our senior politicians could learn this skill.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051
    Given the fact that the government has – as we understand – almost entirely failed to enforce the isolation rule, what on earth makes any think it can enforce the clubbing rule?

    That is not to say people won't use the vaxpasses, I'm sure they will, but whether contravention is enforceable is a very different question.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited July 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    This is increasingly my view. We need to encourage high vaccine take-up, because given the infectiousness of Delta, getting 90+% of adults, plus essentially all teenagers, vaccinated is required for us to get over this thing.

    Younger people are far more likely to engage in less socially distanced activities (like pubs, clubs etc.). They are therefore the group that it is most important to get jabbed.

    But the data is that these groups are not getting jabbed at a rapid pace. It is therefore in the interests of all that we encourage vaccine take-up by making participation in certain events dependent on presentation of a Vaxport.

    This is a public health issue. We have no problems in requiring restaurants not to spread salmonella, it doesn't seem unreasonable that we put in measures to stop people spreading Covid.
    Yes I get that, all with the best possible intentions. Getting the young jabbed. But look at the vehicle (restricting people's freedom) and we all know where a road paved with best intentions leads.

    Why not give every 18-25yr old who is double jabbed £100?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    Who would want a certificate to confirm that they have received a fake vaccine?
    I have one to say I have taken ivomectin nods and now not only did it cure my covid it also reduced my weight to a svelte 11 stone and made me irresistably attractive to younger ladies
    Er, are you sure you took the right pills?

    https://www.healthline.com/health/diet-and-weight-loss/tapeworm-diet#sourceses

    (and no, ivermectin doesn't work on tapeworms)

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1471492217300624
    I was satirizing a certain poster
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    Leon said:

    Greetings PB-ers

    I AM SORRY FOR THAT NASTY REMARK ABOUT THE GERMANS DROWNING

    It was - genuinely - a joke, but I understand some did not take it that way, and I apologise to anyone I offended

    For the sake of clarity, I have also removed my DVD of "Dambusters", smashed it into tiny pieces with a clawhammer, put the grainy remnants in a bin, and had the bin legally incinerated.

    I then gathered the ashes of the incinerated bin containing tiny remnants of the smashed up DVD of "Dambusters", and I poured them all into a sealed leaden urn which was then airlifted to Switzerland and swiftly taken underground where it was torn into fundamental particles in the super-collider at CERN, which means the final atoms are now probably rolling into the Rhine. Ironically.

    An apology. Excellent. If only our senior politicians could learn this skill.
    Actually apologised for the deed. As you say, not a politician's "sorry if you were offended".
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,377
    I am now able to report from the Covid Freedom Day Front Line AKA the gastropubs of Highgate

    Verdict: a disappointing lack of jubilation, or, indeed, Freedom. You weren't allowed to order at the bar, you had to check in at the door, the staff were mostly wearing masks, it was table service only

    Almost nothing has changed

    Indeed I've just been out shopping in Camden and if anything there seem to be MORE masks, people look even more nervous. for the first time ever I saw someone wearing the full Covid monty: mask, visor and disposable blue nitrile gloves WHILE WALKING DOWN THE STREET

    Have we terrified humanity - or at least the British part of it - into some ridiculous, unnecessary dystopia?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942

    Given the fact that the government has – as we understand – almost entirely failed to enforce the isolation rule, what on earth makes any think it can enforce the clubbing rule?

    That is not to say people won't use the vaxpasses, I'm sure they will, but whether contravention is enforceable is a very different question.

    You have doormen on clubs. They love a bit of authoritarianism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,076
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    This is increasingly my view. We need to encourage high vaccine take-up, because given the infectiousness of Delta, getting 90+% of adults, plus essentially all teenagers, vaccinated is required for us to get over this thing.

    Younger people are far more likely to engage in less socially distanced activities (like pubs, clubs etc.). They are therefore the group that it is most important to get jabbed.

    But the data is that these groups are not getting jabbed at a rapid pace. It is therefore in the interests of all that we encourage vaccine take-up by making participation in certain events dependent on presentation of a Vaxport.

    This is a public health issue. We have no problems in requiring restaurants not to spread salmonella, it doesn't seem unreasonable that we put in measures to stop people spreading Covid.
    Yes I get that, all with the best possible intentions. Getting the young jabbed. But look at the vehicle (restricting people's freedom) and we all know where a road paved with best intentions leads.

    Why not give every 18-25yr old who is double jabbed £100?
    As it costs too much on top of furlough as well
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,480
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    This is increasingly my view. We need to encourage high vaccine take-up, because given the infectiousness of Delta, getting 90+% of adults, plus essentially all teenagers, vaccinated is required for us to get over this thing.

    Younger people are far more likely to engage in less socially distanced activities (like pubs, clubs etc.). They are therefore the group that it is most important to get jabbed.

    But the data is that these groups are not getting jabbed at a rapid pace. It is therefore in the interests of all that we encourage vaccine take-up by making participation in certain events dependent on presentation of a Vaxport.

    This is a public health issue. We have no problems in requiring restaurants not to spread salmonella, it doesn't seem unreasonable that we put in measures to stop people spreading Covid.
    Do we not achieve the same end by allowing the unvaccinated to catch the disease and get their antibodies that way?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051

    stodge said:

    RobD said:


    I think the primary objective is to get more people vaccinated. You saw the immediate effect it had in France when their proposals were announced.

    Ah, so, as the French don't say "le stick contre le carrot".

    Have we evidence vaccination take-up among young people is particularly low? Obviously, not all will have had a second vaccination yet given the 8-week gap.

    Will it produce a push of demand in Newham for example where lack of take up isn't restricted to younger people? I'm not wholly convinced.

    Extend the vaxport to places of worship.
    Indeed. Is there something unique about clubbing or can this so-called 'law'* be extended to folk cramming into a mosque or church?

    *Not certain there is such a law, BTW – the government has a tendency to present guidance as laws.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine passports for nightclubs are to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, right?

    But we are not restricting access at weddings, funerals (and associated wakes), football matches, indoor ice hockey matches, pubs, choirs, churches, concerts (both Debussy and UK Subs), and so on.

    And people want to fine and criminalise those people going to nightclubs without the appropriate papers.

    Seems sensible to me.

    I'm against vaxports on principle.

    But in practice, they absolutely do work to encourage people to get jabbed.

    If you just want to be practical as opposed to theoretical there's absolutely no reason for consistency and weddings, funerals etc to be the same rules as nightclubs. If a third of the young are refusing the vaccine and almost all of them end up going for it as its needed for clubs and travel then the system has worked as intended, even if its inconsistent.

    Its like the Swiss Cheese model for risk assessment. In practice it works, even if in principle its a mess.
    This is increasingly my view. We need to encourage high vaccine take-up, because given the infectiousness of Delta, getting 90+% of adults, plus essentially all teenagers, vaccinated is required for us to get over this thing.

    Younger people are far more likely to engage in less socially distanced activities (like pubs, clubs etc.). They are therefore the group that it is most important to get jabbed.

    But the data is that these groups are not getting jabbed at a rapid pace. It is therefore in the interests of all that we encourage vaccine take-up by making participation in certain events dependent on presentation of a Vaxport.

    This is a public health issue. We have no problems in requiring restaurants not to spread salmonella, it doesn't seem unreasonable that we put in measures to stop people spreading Covid.
    Yes I get that, all with the best possible intentions. Getting the young jabbed. But look at the vehicle (restricting people's freedom) and we all know where a road paved with best intentions leads.

    Why not give every 18-25yr old who is double jabbed £100?
    As it costs too much on top of furlough as well
    One pathetic billion quid or so? Call yourself a Conservative? Have you not noticed the Covid bill?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    Leon said:

    I am now able to report from the Covid Freedom Day Front Line AKA the gastropubs of Highgate

    Verdict: a disappointing lack of jubilation, or, indeed, Freedom. You weren't allowed to order at the bar, you had to check in at the door, the staff were mostly wearing masks, it was table service only

    Almost nothing has changed

    Indeed I've just been out shopping in Camden and if anything there seem to be MORE masks, people look even more nervous. for the first time ever I saw someone wearing the full Covid monty: mask, visor and disposable blue nitrile gloves WHILE WALKING DOWN THE STREET

    Have we terrified humanity - or at least the British part of it - into some ridiculous, unnecessary dystopia?

    At our school pick-up yesterday, 80-90% of parents were wearing masks. This afternoon; about half. It'll be interesting to see if this keeps reducing in the next two days before the end of term.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,480
    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Bywire News™
    @bywirenews
    ·
    1h
    NEW: Keir Starmer has almost bankrupted the Labour Party.

    The party’s financial reserves are down to just one months’ payroll - with senior staff blaming a huge swathe of lost members and legal fees.

    Labour were the richest party in Britain under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

    So with a reduction in subs from fly by night Trots who have scabbed off, and a reduction in union subs from Red Len, Starmer needs to go after private sector benefactors. No problem.
    He has being trying to make good the shortfall from wealthy individuals ever since he became leader.

    Unsurprisingly he has failed as he inspires nobody but a few anti Corbyn cranks

    I am sure the staff losing their jobs will be extremely impressed by the success of your plan.
    He needs the donations to keep the staff. Should have done it earlier of course.

    Your argument is well made though. Without Corbyn the party is bankrupt. Which is why there should be an amicable divorce - let Labour Against the Witchhunt and Corbyn and the anti-semites and Chris Williamson stay, and have Starmer and the members and the voters leave.

    The negative is that you'll lose the handful of trot MPs like Sultana who stay with you. The positive is that you'll have a large pot of money to defend the party against the endless legal cases. Well, until its all spent of course.
    Oh how I wish that would happen. A Labour party shorn of the likes of Williamson and Corbyn and Sultana and all the people who support them would be one I could support. It could certainly recapture the centre ground from the Tories. At the expense of losing the far left, of course, but I think the prize would be worth it.

    I don't wish to be rude, Rochdale, but have you had some good news or something today? The tone of your posts is a bit different and more like the Rochdale of Teesside days. Apologies if I am reading too much into things.
    I'm the same me as always :)
    @Cookie
    He is living in God's country, how could he not be happy
    Of course. Famously light-hearted people, the Scots. :smile:
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Pulpstar said:

    Given the fact that the government has – as we understand – almost entirely failed to enforce the isolation rule, what on earth makes any think it can enforce the clubbing rule?

    That is not to say people won't use the vaxpasses, I'm sure they will, but whether contravention is enforceable is a very different question.

    You have doormen on clubs. They love a bit of authoritarianism.
    I have been a doorman on a club and I'm sorry to say that is absolutely true. But only to the bellends.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,235
    Pagan2 said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Mr. kinabalu, it's pissing off a lot of people.

    I hope you're right.

    It will piss even more off if they try to implement it....imagine long queues building up outside pubs. restaurants, nightclubs,gigs ...."Sorry cant let you in because cant verify your status as the servers are down"
    Very forseeable so the gov't will of course ensure the server capacity is increased prior to it being a condition ;)
    You can't increase the capacity that much, botnets are cheap to hire and IoT has provide many more millions of devices to run them on. Plus when did you last see a competent government it operation
    The vaccine passport is on the users phone. No need for the nightclub to have computer access, just a doorman who knows what to look for. Same when you fly etc*. So no government IT to bring down.

    *One of our nurses was in Spain a couple of weeks back. No one checked either way.
    No way will Mr Bill Jones' screenshotted double vaccine confirmation ever be used. A million times.
    I can advise that fake vaccine certification is already changing hands for £500 a pop.
    Who would want a certificate to confirm that they have received a fake vaccine?
    I have one to say I have taken ivomectin nods and now not only did it cure my covid it also reduced my weight to a svelte 11 stone and made me irresistably attractive to younger ladies
    Well to be honest we can see how attractive you are from your handsome profile picture.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    mwadams said:

    algarkirk said:

    gealbhan said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. Sorry, only just read the @Cyclefree PT header on the stubborn Tory poll lead. It's a very good helicopter piece.

    "If the choice is between the Tories and an empty space, the latter is unlikely to win."

    The above line jumped out at me. You read it and reflexively nod and think "too right". It's one of those.

    But then - if you're me - you dwell on it a while and wonder whether it is such a slam dunk. This government (and particularly this PM) are increasingly being viewed by anybody with eyes to see and ears to listen and noses to smell and mouths to - ok ok you get the picture - as an utter shambles. No principles. No competence. 'No' as in ZERO.

    They've got away with it so far (pollwise) but for how long? Brexit is shedding its potency as iconic wedge issue. Slowly, to be sure, but it is. They can poke the fires of its culture war aspect but is this enough to stay at 40%? I doubt it. Tough times lie ahead with the economy and in Fiscal Corner. Leveling Up, for example, has to move from soundbite to hard policy choices and this will piss some people off. If it doesn't it's not real and remains a soundbite. Which would also start to piss some people off, just a different bunch, those Leavers who voted for this agenda, believing it to be genuine. Because these folk are not total blithering idiots - not in the main and not all the time. Whatever, poll damage is coming either way. Ditto with Social Care. There are no votes in that. Only negative ones if you get serious about it. Ask Andy Burnham or Theresa May. So the same choice there. A solid plan and loss of popularity or a cop out and loss of popularity.

    Now we have this mismanaged exit from the pandemic. Plus (the header here) further damaging reveals from Cummings - who was right there in the middle of it - about the response and attitude throughout. The PM at key moments in thrall to bizarre right-wing 'contrarians' for heaven's sake, most of them no wiser than our PB one. His focus not on preventing Covid running amok in England and killing tens of thousands but on something far more important - impressing the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator.

    I could go on. The challenge is to stop. But I can do that too. I'm going out maskless in a minute. Big moment. The point is, surely all of this shit is probably going to lead within a year to the Cons polling no better than mid 30s. And then come the GE, given things can only get worse, if the choice is indeed between more of the same or a nice cool empty space fronted by a non-scary, competent, decent sounding bloke who looks like he could run a whelk stall and could manage to tell the truth every now and again, well for me that's a toss up.

    I take issue with 'poke the fires of its culture war aspect'. Blaming the right for the culture war is like blaming Poland for World War Two. The right isn't trying to move back to 1953, it just doesn't want to be dragged forward to year zero. All the movement on the culture war is from the left. The right isn't trying to rewrite history. The right is, occasionally, suggesting that perhaps the left might be going a bit too far.
    Now you're astute, and you'll notice I'm saying 'the left' and not 'the Labour Party'. SKS is trying his hardest to avoid the loonier fringes of the culture war, though his party occasionally drag him into it. But to the electorate as a whole, that's not enough. Neil Kinnock was no culture warrior. But the culture warriors of the wider left - the ILEA, for example - lost him votes. How does SKS distance Labour from the likes of Zarah Sultana and Nadia Whittome?

    EDIT - and have you read the Telegraph or the Spectator recently? If the PM has been trying to impress the Telegraph and the Spectator, he's going about it abysmally. What he's trying to do (and succeeding) is to impress the authoritarian lobby which want more laws on other people (like @gealbhan yesterday - although I wasn't sure how serious he was).

    EDIT2: And good luck going maskless. Enjoy exchanging smiles with other demaskers!
    As named, I’ll explain.

    My point being the argument between authoritarian and libertarian is not a left right one, nor is it a case of one side being right, the other wrong. It’s a case of both should listen to the other and debate the other, to help get things right.

    It shows up clearly in Covid politics, commentators in the Telegraph (Conservative in party politics, split between libertarian and authoritarian in Covid response) and the Daily Mail (Conservative till sixties, populist right since) also to a smaller degree split between authoritarian and libertarian, though tending toward libertarian in editorial.

    In downing street yesterday, JVT Libertarian, open nite clubs, Vallance authoritarian, against doing it right now.

    But with the success of vaccines, things have now moved on, old media and new media like this blog very slow to realise how things have moved. It’s never been, if not now then when, it was always going to be how, post vaccine.

    It’s not about vaccines now, it’s about behaviours. The horse taken to water (jabbed) could say the easier equation than getting it to drink (behaviour) hence now proper debate required between authoritarian and libertarian to achieve those behaviours.

    The government have already decided the road ahead and won’t u turn. My evidence? The main headline this lunchtime, government no intention to tackle pingdemic, they are determined to generate it, latest missive from Downing Street, if you are pinged then isolate.

    So if you delete the app, ie show the wrong behaviour, the government won’t concede to you, they will coerce you into the behaviours in the end.

    I don’t make this up, I’m just the messenger where for many the penny hasn’t dropped yet.
    Marginally following this up, isn't one of Labour's problems that very few of the real choices we face are left v right. A number of left issues are over, and therefore discounted. The NHS, free education to 18, not being an imperial power, social housing, payments to those not in work, House of Lords reform, minimum wage, employment rights, high taxes on the rich, health and safety etc. The centre left has won all the battles, and the centre right occupies what would have been a centre/centre left position.

    Covid, Brexit, China, Russia, Islamic extremism, free speech, debt and deficit, the state of the UK union - none of these have obvious left v right alternative solutions.

    The game has changed. I think so far the Tories have been better at silently shifting. Labour members still seem to think that the very people who vote in Patel, Sunak, Kwarteng and Nadhim Zahawi are filthy racists because they don't think Diane Abbott, Dawn Butler and Zarah Sultana are outstanding politicians.

    The next left/right debate is UBI (and the terms of that debate will, in part be set by the experience of furlough, and our economic path over the next 5 years or so).

    I think the left is at *extreme* danger of being outflanked on this by the right, with a post-industrial market-economy argument being made (and won) for its introduction by a future Tory administration, while Labour sits it out, scared of frightening the middle-england horses.
    There is no debate to be had, UBI which is enough to live on is unaffordable
    UBI already exists in this country, we just don't call it that and we have an extremely high real marginal income tax on it.

    A sensible UBI introduction would be to merge existing things together, sort out the tax rates so they're sensible, then call it UBI. Not introduce massive new benefits.

    A bit like Osborne introducing a Living Wage, based upon the pre-existing Minimum Wage and not dramatically different.
    UBI will not work until they sort out housing benefit, specifically in London and the south.

    The current numbers require something like £1k a month for an adult, £500 for a child, and an income tax rate of 35% with no personal allowance. Then start making allowances for behavioural changes, all of which will be on the downside for the Chancellor.
    A properly-implemented UBI will make behaviour changes be on the upside for the Chancellor not the downside.

    Currently people feel like its not worth working as they'll "lose their benefits" which is true, marginal tax rates of over 75% and effectively 90% exist. Getting rid of that will well and truly make work pay.

    As a point of principle, I find it immoral for anyone to be facing a marginal tax rate of over 50%. That to me applies equally to those earning over £100k losing their tax-free allowance, and those on minimum wage losing their UC.
    If UBI comes in then I’m going even more part time (I’m 0.9 at the moment). As the government pays me I’m not it’s great for them to pay me the same money for less work...
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given the fact that the government has – as we understand – almost entirely failed to enforce the isolation rule, what on earth makes any think it can enforce the clubbing rule?

    That is not to say people won't use the vaxpasses, I'm sure they will, but whether contravention is enforceable is a very different question.

    You have doormen on clubs. They love a bit of authoritarianism.
    I have been a doorman on a club and I'm sorry to say that is absolutely true. But only to the bellends.
    A lot of bellends amongst doormen
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Leon said:

    I am now able to report from the Covid Freedom Day Front Line AKA the gastropubs of Highgate

    Verdict: a disappointing lack of jubilation, or, indeed, Freedom. You weren't allowed to order at the bar, you had to check in at the door, the staff were mostly wearing masks, it was table service only

    Almost nothing has changed

    Indeed I've just been out shopping in Camden and if anything there seem to be MORE masks, people look even more nervous. for the first time ever I saw someone wearing the full Covid monty: mask, visor and disposable blue nitrile gloves WHILE WALKING DOWN THE STREET

    Have we terrified humanity - or at least the British part of it - into some ridiculous, unnecessary dystopia?

    Yes.

    Although Camden Lock on Saturday last was heaving and not a mask in sight.

    And no, don't ask me why I was there suffice to say it has changed quite a lot since I used to go back in the day.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,051
    Pulpstar said:

    Given the fact that the government has – as we understand – almost entirely failed to enforce the isolation rule, what on earth makes any think it can enforce the clubbing rule?

    That is not to say people won't use the vaxpasses, I'm sure they will, but whether contravention is enforceable is a very different question.

    You have doormen on clubs. They love a bit of authoritarianism.
    Although are easy swayed by pretty girls and other things.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,067
    ...
This discussion has been closed.