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Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen – politicalbetting.com
Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen – politicalbetting.com
Nick Palmer was Labour MP for Broxtowe, 1997-2010 and is longstanding PBer
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Image from #Westminster https://t.co/qMCgtPOKQQ
But maybe not
‘He apparently has really disfiguring scars from an attack by an ex-BBC guy. Must be fairly bad, the attacker got 16 months with no priors’
https://twitter.com/willardfoxton/status/1410936720107974664?s=21
@SebastianEPayne
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24m
I’ve deleted a previous inaccurate tweet. Point wanted to make:
- Labour should rightly celebrate a victory. But B&S was ultimately about Kim Leadbeater, not Labour or Keir Starmer. The leader and party still lack a compelling narrative or clear plan to win back lost voters.
Questionable CCHQ tactics. Low profile was no profile in a street by street fight.
Galloway is the sort of Marmite politician that is likely to cause as much traffic against as for. There was a reason the Farage couldn't get elected - -he riled enough to block him from getting to Westminster.
We have had 3 by-elections recently - and I'm not sure how much we could read into a General from any of them, such were their individual peculiarities. But nearly 20 months into this Government, we are midterm by any definition. And it still needs to be said that the swing last night would have delivered another 25 seats from Labour to the Government. That is exceptional. Labour's challenge is still nearer to Olympus Mons than Everest.
Labour can take credit from the win in the most difficult of circumstances, even if Hancock and Boris fulfilled the same role as Gonzalez’s pass back to his goalie in the game against Croatia.
The question is whether Starmer is able to make anything of it. At the end of the day, it’s just a hold, after all.
https://www.jpost.com/International/Alleged-attacker-of-controversial-British-MP-Galloway-faces-court-today-373048
No clear evidence of disfiguring scars, but it's possible.
There are steps Starmer has to take and he should take them with as much urgency as if he had lost. He has to clarify who he is, what he stands for and what he stands against, even if that means a row with his party: there is no value in unity when it’s the unity of the grave. He has to develop one or two core themes and repeat them so often that even uttering the words makes him and his (currently anonymous) shadow cabinet nauseous – for only then will the message begin to reach the public. The most fertile territory is that currently staked out by Joe Biden: jobs. He can expose the gap between Tory rhetoric on “levelling up” and the reality. He can insist that when it comes to jobs, only Labour is the real deal.
https://order-order.com/2021/07/02/labour-slough-council-declare-bankruptcy/
Slough council has issued a section 114 notice, declaring itself bankrupt.
To quote Kinnock, the council’s spending decisions now mean they’re playing politics with people’s jobs, people’s services. The borough council can no longer spend any money except on statutory services. For anyone hoping to blame the pandemic, the council’s coffers had already fallen by £7.5 million to just £500,000 by 2018/19…
Yes, Boris will run out of steam eventually, and I’m not one of his cheerleaders - but the Conservatives have managed to re-invent themselves in power twice in a decade, and it’s quite probable they’ll do it once more if required.
Labour need to work out what they stand for, and present a positive vision of the future, whether that’s under Starmer or someone else, just as Blair did in 1997. Right now, they have three incompatible groups of support - the old unionised working classes, the elite metropolitan woke, and the socially conservative ethnic minorities. In an age of close to perfect information, they can’t hold all three groups together.
Whatever that means.
Wearing a pink t-shirt at the time of the attack. In my mind Galloway was wearing hats for much longer than the past few years.
Well, they were half right:
The statistics released today (Friday 2 July) show there were 6.02 million applications made to the scheme by 30 June with 5.1 million grants of status. There have been more than 5.3 million applications from England, 291,200 from Scotland, 98,600 from Wales, and 98,400 from Northern Ireland.
The surge in applications, including more than 400,000 in June alone, means that there are around 570,000 pending applications. The Government has repeatedly assured those who applied before the deadline that they will have their rights protected until their application is decided, as set out in law, and they have the means to prove their protected rights if needed.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-30437479
I'd agree with all of it, with a nuance to point 2 - don't take the Muslim vote for granted, but also don't go explicitly chasing it with 'these will appeal to Muslims' policies: there's no way of doing that without alienating others.
To paraphrase George Galloway, there is no 'Muslim vote', there are simply voters, all with their own interests.
B&S is an interesting seat. We've discussed at length the swing to the Tories in unfashionable small towns over the past 25 years - Leigh, Bassetlaw, Hartlepool, Cannock, Newcastle under Lyme. You'd have thought B&S would go the same way. But it's been quite the opposite. It does have a large Muslim vote - has this got notably larger?
Galloway surprisingly good also.
Well done @NickPalmer - you pretty much nailed it yesterday afternoon saying it seemed pretty much level.
Pity I laid off my labour bet! Oh well, nothing lost.
My political betting returns have been abysmal in recent years. I paid a bit too much attention to Paul Krishnamurty and the star sports lot. Gonna give up punting for a bit, I think.
On #2, my suspicion* is that Galloway will struggle to find a slate of candidates for a GE who'll do as well as him personally in a one-off by election. This is good news for everyone, with the state of political debate being miles clear at the top of the winners list.
*more an observation of what happened last time and expectation that history will repeat
Amazing.
As I mentioned on the previous thread, for me the main take is that Labour got its act together for this by-election, in a way that it hasn't in other recent contests. That shows both enthusiasm from activists, and good organisation and coordination from the centre. The recent changes to personnel at Labour HQ seem to be bearing fruit.
However, the strategic challenges still remain, and the dire weakness of the front bench is still unaddressed, as is Keir Starmer's failure to project a coherent political position on anything very much.
So, moderately encouraging for Labour, but don't jump into the Starmer for Next PM market.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1410954102775943170
The whole narrative would be different if 300 fewer people voted Labour. Would that have made Kim Leadbetter a bad candidate choice, GG a key mover in modern politics and the Hancock story irrelevant? It shouldn’t.
So it’s a relief for Labour to get over the line, but it’s the third by election in two months where they’ve recorded their worst ever vote share in the constituency. I think they would be silly to do anything other than say ‘phew that was close’ before analysing why they keep getting record low vote shares
I am not in favour of parties standing down, but a tacit agreement on targeting seats and tolerance of tactical voting was a key part of 1997, and could be so again in 2024.
1. There was a strong spoiler candidate who not so long ago won a by-election down the road and once again deliberately set out to target Muslim Labour voters in order to get rid of Starmer. Given where and how Galloway campaigned, and the fact that outside his niche market most find him repugnant across the political spectrum, clearly most of his 22% came from his target demographic. But that trick can't be tried in most seats with a more typical demographic, in a GE Galloway himself can try it in only one seat, and in a GE it'll be the real thing and protest votes will be harder to come by.
2. A very large chunk of the votes were cast at a point when Hancock was yet to be derided as a hypocritical philandering sleazeball using his snout to favour those who did him (very) personal favours, and Johnson was as yet undamaged by giving Hancock his support when faced with those facts.
My reading is that the evidence suggests that Labour must have secured a significant net swing against the Conservatives, when analysis is confined to non-Muslim electors and to those who didn't vote until the last week.
As for the fact that Labour had a good local candidate, of course it helped but it was about all Labour had going for them. And it didn't happen by chance. It was a smart call by Starmer, made at some internal political risk in defiance of the far left, and evidence of political nous that he supposedly lacks.
For @TheScreamingEagles and others this thread explains the size of the problem that organisation and trump now has
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1410676547124707336
as the 12th count basically says the basis of every loan made to Trump is based on lies
I can't think of another example where we are likely to have accurate figures but maybe others can. This changed our country forever and materially. Its a pity no one asked first.
GE Polling: little change so far.
There were special circumstances in each. Few conclusions can be drawn.
The future B&S points up is two fold: Tories struggle to win Bame tending seats which they might win if they were more uniformly WWC. But I doubt if they are targeting them anyway.
The ground is there for an Islamic vote for a specialist party run by a Galloway type of demagogue. This would damage Labour a lot, but would damage our (outside NI) version of multi party non religiously based politics a lot more. And would further split the 'never Tory' vote. That split is already the Tories' best chance of wining next time
Immigration levels were off the scale from 2004-2016, utterly extraordinary.
Pooh pooh, say the Johnson fanbois, excuse excuse etc. No, sorry you Boris obsessives, the truth was that everyone expected the Tories to win this, and they should have done, if the narrative that they have put out there really has any validity, you know the one, Boris reaches parts etc., and the Red Wall has turned permanently blue due to Johnsonian populism. This bolstered by the vaccine and the continuous exposure that the pandemic has given to those in government (including Sturgeon and Blackford), should mean that they should be winning these types of contests particularly when helped by Galloway.
What if the Tory narrative is wrong? What if Johnson's popularity is transient and largely limited to the last election? The Tories have invested heavily in brand Boris. They believe he appeals to WWC in spite the paradox of his own demeanour and privileged upbringing, but perhaps what we are actually seeing is the effects of the divisions created by Brexit gradually healing and the electorate gradually catching up with the fact that Labour is no longer led by Corbyn so is less of a worry now? What if the so-called remoaners in the south haven't forgiven Johnson and now that Corbyn has gone feel they should vote LD? This could create a perfect storm at the next GE
I think it is possible the Tories are in a lot of trouble, even though I am not hoping for a Labour government . The Tory problem is exacerbated by arrogance, hubris and complacency. They should seriously look at moving back to being proper Conservatives.
Off topic betting post...
While Harris is the presumptive nominee should Biden not run again, this story prompted me to have a look at Buttigieg's odds.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/30/kamala-harris-office-dissent-497290
Just put a few quid on him at 75 on Betfair Exch. to win the presidency.
Thoughts ?
However, now they are settling I suspect long-term - within one or two generations - the vast majority of their descendants will identify as White British. Might give a boost to the Catholic church here too.
I think that's not the right lesson to learn. My view is, it's pointless pandering to racist and homophobic views - you can't outflank Galloway in such a by-election.
Imagine how good it would feel for Labour if they'd just ignored the Muslims? "Think you can dictate our priorities? think again."
And it's easy to pooh-pooh an analysis like that given the source is hardly the most impartial when it comes to Boris Johnson. If you can dismiss the opinions of "Johnson fanbois", they can do the same for the opinions of those who are on the other end of the spectrum.
As for Hartlepool, it was an amazing upset. One other poster suggested that may have been "high point Boris". He might be right he might be wrong. My point is that Boris Johnson may not prove to be the asset that he is believed to be. I also accept that I might be completely wrong, but I have been following politics a long time!
At the time I also seed that I would give £100 to OGH, towards his cost of running this site, if cases had not started to fall by then. I had thought there was a button on this website that allowed people to donate, but can not see it now, does anybody know how to donate? or transfer money to Mr S?
p.s. I'm also planning on buying the first round if/when we have another PB meet up.
I also saw very rapid social change in big towns and cities, including Basingstoke, that took place over a very short number of years, that changed the character of the town, and caused housing and wage pressures for many lower-earning locals and a friction and resentment that wasn't necessary.
I thought the immigration rates were crazy then and still do now.
Yes, Boris's wheels will come off but nothing in B&S tells you when, or whether Labour will benefit. The biggest take form B&S is that Tories will struggle to do well in Bame tending seats, but we knew that. Labour still have the same problems: the non Tory vote is split Lab, LD, Green, SNP and (potentially) whatever populist Islamic trending monster comes out of the Galloway tendency. Where Labour should position itself is infinitely harder that where the Toreis should.
Labours appeal is to large but special enclaves with little in common. Tories to the middling sort across (especially) England.
PS We didn't all think the Tories would win B&S. Mike Smithson, Nick Palmer and others indicated that value lay elsewhere. (Thank you). I posted yesterday that Labour had it by a short nose. A few bob up in consequence.
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1410969568219181058
https://twitter.com/siancain/status/1410964748724809729
That said, holding on (narrowly) to B & S is no more than the very first step towards Labour presenting an electoral challenge to this government. For Labour to hold this seat was a necessity, For the Conservatives to have gained it would have been nice to have, but no more than that.
Tens of thousands of people who filed suit against the Boy Scouts of America have reached an $850,000,000 settlement, the largest in a sexual abuse case in U.S. history.
Certain organised religions next please
Labour's vote share fell, but they just hung onto the seat.
This is just the 3 main parties, so no George Galloway here. As it should be.
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1410968637729615872
On the one hand family wise, it’s been a great plus for me. I have a wonderful Finnish sister in law via my older brother - and my younger brother, with profound learning difficulties has undoubtedly benefitted from Eastern European carers. That likely wouldn’t have happened without EU freedom of movement.
But it’s probably come at a personal cost for me, employment wise - and the wider economic cost to lower paid Brits is obvious.
The key point is - that no one was asked, and anyone who objected to a 10% increase in the population via immigration was called racist.
That was profoundly unfair. Labour, the LDs and the liberal tories share the blame for this.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jul/02/boris-johnson-offered-to-pay-for-help-writing-shakespeare-biography-says-scholar?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://observatory.kirklees.gov.uk/jsna/batley-and-spen
Step forward Ross Peltier. By being removed as the Green candidate so late they couldn't get a replacement.
He's well-known locally and would have probably polled more than the majority.
More evidence for a Progressive Alliance.
The Great And The Good heard this as "We have proper moral ascendancy on immigration and it is beyond question".
The Head Count heard this as "We have the coinage and the courts. The rabble can have what is left".
The conclusion is that the Trump Org is realllllllly strapped for cash.
Happy with that.
"If you look at the comments on politicalbetting, they’re all politically partisan, not particularly smart and they clearly bet on what they want to happen, not what they think actually will, whether they realise it or not."
https://unherd.com/2021/07/how-labour-rescued-batley-and-spen/
Indie SAGE Friday afternoon briefing.
Muslim Indians take an even dimmer view of Modi than Pakistanis. For good reasons.
Then, you get a seat like this, where a big vote for UKIP in 2015, divided pretty evenly between the big two in 2017.
@GoodwinMJ
Prominent Left politician in Germany argues the left has been co-opted by a middle-class academic elite which has little interest in workers, is obsessed with identity politics, political correctness, minorities & intolerance of those with different views
Germany’s Left Party convulsed by effort to expel internal critic
Sahra Wagenknecht’s criticism of left-wing politics has triggered a bitter debate
irishtimes.com"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1410910379253895168
Consider Hugo Stinnes.....
The modern billionaires, who actually have billions in real assets, they really own, are quite a recent innovation, in some ways.