I think what this result might show is that we are starting to see a return to normal politics. Simply sending Boris up to a seat to sit on a fork-lift and say "Did you like the jab we gave you!" isn't going to cut it any more. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304
In conclusion, the Labour leadership should treat this as a massive kick up the backside - not a glorious triumphant vindication - and offer a genuinely inspiring vision which unites the party and which is currently just not there. Disaster awaits otherwise - it's up to them. 6:46 AM · Jul 2, 2021·"
+£800 and a highly instructive lesson for me on learning from discussion here in the last few days of run-up, and on which posters have powerful judgement. A big thank you to Mike in particular.
Extremely effective organisation by Labour, winning on a turnout of "only" 48% with GG surprisingly seeming to have won practically the entire Muslim vote, with 21%. (At least this is assuming turnout was the same among Muslims and non-Muslims, which may not be so.) I guess this came down to Labour versus GG and Labour got its vote out to the max and may also have won a few % directly from the Tories for "Stop Gorgeous" reasons.
I think George will have picked up a fair bit of the "Muslim vote" but also a lot of the Heavy Woolens former Labour Leavers.
What really encourages me is that people voted against the homophobic campaign, and for a good local woman. That is one thing for Labour to take away. Good local candidates and not to be afraid of being who they are.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
You wonder if actually better for Con to lose by whisker than win by whisker.
Lab win guarantees Starmer stays - and it looks as if Starmer is just not strong enough to win a GE - Lab should be winning this seat by a landslide if they were on course to win GE.
That was my thought.
Also (and I know it doesn’t work like this, but the electorate has collectively played a blinder)
C&A - Tories: don’t get cocky B&S - But we are still willing to listen to you if you work a bit harder
Boris is Boris, if that is what he wants to be called.
It's not though.
He wants his family and friends to call him Alex.
He only wants voters to call him something else.
Friends calling Boris Alex seems to depend who you read. For instance, John Pienaar wrote: "He chose to be called Boris and his family, friends and eventually everyone else have amiably obliged him." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/2gvE3Pa8Gv/Boris_Johnson_battles
The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads.
That's the Sky News description.
Labour were written off here for all kinds of reasons that you might do well to study.
I'm a Telegraph reader pro-libertarian and certainly not a typical 'Labour lot'.
Yes, Sky News are right. This is a stunning result for Labour. Under the circumstances.
It was both a desperately narrow and a convincing win at the same time.
We can see how desperate the win was from how low Labour had to stoop with some of its leaflets and with the way Labour had to throw its activists into GOTV (five knockups and counting, according to our man on the spot) like recruits being ferried across the river to defend Stalingrad.
Nevertheless without Galloway it looks pretty clear that the Tories wouldn't have come close to presenting a significant challenge. Which is the more important takeaway for the future.
Can I reiterate - assuming Galloway’s voters would all otherwise have voted Labour.
Just as assumptions were made about the HWI going Tory, which they clearly haven’t.
This is a good hold for Labour, don’t get me wrong, and as somebody who increasingly thinks of himself as a soft Labour voter I’m pleased about it. But there are still awkward questions for the party to answer. Why are their former voters not trending back to them now Brexit is ‘done?’ How do you keep a coalition of slightly crazy urban Woke voters and socially conservative northern/Muslim voters together? Where is the maximum impact for campaigning, given the enormous churn in votes that still seems to be going on?
This doesn’t really answer those questions. What it does is give Labour breathing space to start looking for the answers.
I think the Tories will win the 2023 General Election. What this and the Chesham result means is that they will need a new leader to do so. Everything you posted is true - Labour need to find a purpose and a belief and that will be difficult led by a cardboard cut-out with hard left maniacs trying to set it on fire all the time.
Boris is Boris, if that is what he wants to be called.
It's not though.
He wants his family and friends to call him Alex.
He only wants voters to call him something else.
Friends calling Boris Alex seems to depend who you read. For instance, John Pienaar wrote: "He chose to be called Boris and his family, friends and eventually everyone else have amiably obliged him." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/2gvE3Pa8Gv/Boris_Johnson_battles
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Isn't this exactly what the right of the party were doing to Corbyn for the whole time he was leader? It just seems to demonstrate that the left of the party are being more and more irrelevant and marginalised.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Are you saying Galloway isn’t those things?
He isn't a party though. Are you saying that Alex isn't those things...?
Before Labour gets too excited by B&S, it still provided a swing that would deliver 25 more of their current seats to the Conservatives, up to Doncaster North being an effective dead heat.
For a mid-term Government supposedly led by a clown - I think they'd take that.
I think what this result might show is that we are starting to see a return to normal politics. Simply sending Boris up to a seat to sit on a fork-lift and say "Did you like the jab we gave you!" isn't going to cut it any more. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304
Lol.
Could Hodges...be right?
A period of reflective silence from Hodges would be welcome - he was absolutely emphatic that Labour couldn't possibly win, because Galloway.
The three seats represent very different types of voter. Hartlepool - ex industrial. Batley and Spen - suburban, ethnically diverse. Chesham - wealthy stockbroker belt.
Rather, this confirms the three different voter groups each national party appeals to.
In conclusion, the Labour leadership should treat this as a massive kick up the backside - not a glorious triumphant vindication - and offer a genuinely inspiring vision which unites the party and which is currently just not there. Disaster awaits otherwise - it's up to them. 6:46 AM · Jul 2, 2021·"
He really is shit. Had Labour lost it would all have been the fault of Starmer. As Labour won its got nothing to do with Starmer and actually thanks to Starmer it was almost a loss actually.
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
I've seen quite a bit of Rachel and Stanley on TV and I don't recall them ever having a "community charge" moment.
Not saying you're wrong, but his family of very good actors if it is the case. Switching between two names would be quite tricky, I'd have thought.
On TV is on stage. Use the stage name. You don't act in a film and use the actor's real name when talking to or about the character they are playing.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Isn't this exactly what the right of the party were doing to Corbyn for the whole time he was leader? It just seems to demonstrate that the left of the party are being more and more irrelevant and marginalised.
They were, yes. It was necessary for Labour to ever get elected again.
What the hard left are doing now may be equivalent in terms of disloyalty but unlike the anti-Corbyn effort, it is just making ongoing Tory govt without effective scrutiny and opposition more likely.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Spoke to a very senior Tory last week who said the signs were that the party was reaching its ceiling in polls and that the vaccine boost would not last and politics as usual was beginning to return. This result could accelerate that - but it depends on Starmer now...
Must be very fun listening to some PBers out with their mates
“NO, HIS NAME IS REG DWIGHT, don’t call him Elton, it’s not his real name and you’re falling into his trap and doing what he wants - HIS MUM CALLS HIM REG THEREFORE SO SHOULD WE”
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Are you saying Galloway isn’t those things?
He isn't a party though. Are you saying that Alex isn't those things...?
Well, if I’m honest I was winding Murali up.
Although it’s not as much fun as winding up Corbynistas over Corbyn being a lying racist fornicator.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Owen Jones is not an MP. Dawn Butler denied standing, even if she might have had her fingers crossed. And remember that Starmer was elected leader on a unity platform. But most of all, reigniting Labour's civil war would be a gift to the Conservatives. It would probably also accelerate Starmer's own demise for while he can beat the relatively small left, there are an awful lot on the centre and right who are deeply unimpressed by Starmer's performance thus far, notwithstanding one good PMQs.
Before Labour gets too excited by B&S, it still provided a swing that would deliver 25 more of their current seats to the Conservatives, up to Doncaster North being an effective dead heat.
For a mid-term Government supposedly led by a clown - I think they'd take that.
Should that be read as you suggesting the clown is not demonstrating effective leadership?
I think what this result might show is that we are starting to see a return to normal politics. Simply sending Boris up to a seat to sit on a fork-lift and say "Did you like the jab we gave you!" isn't going to cut it any more. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304
Lol.
Could Hodges...be right?
A period of reflective silence from Hodges would be welcome - he was absolutely emphatic that Labour couldn't possibly win, because Galloway.
Today David Miliband will become leader of the Labour Party …
And yet, more than ten years later people still take him seriously?
I think what this result might show is that we are starting to see a return to normal politics. Simply sending Boris up to a seat to sit on a fork-lift and say "Did you like the jab we gave you!" isn't going to cut it any more. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304
Hartlepool is the only truly Red Wall seat out of the recent by-elections.
I think that Hartlepool was in large part the Brexit party vote, but in general the "Red wall" Tory gains were in the less deprived smaller Northern towns and suburbs with significant middle class.
I hope the tide has turned on Johnsons corrupt hypocrites, no one deserves a fall more.
Hartlepool, Batley and Chesham all look like freak results within context of polling.
In a gen election Hartlepool won’t be a Tory landslide, the Libs won’t come close in Chesham, Batley won’t be neck and neck with George Galloway causing mayhem. That’s by-elections though, they produce ‘freak’ results.
In contrast Airdrie and Shotts is pretty much exactly what we’d expect at any time over the past 5 years.
Ugh. Well done all winners, big slice of humble pie for me - looks to me by eye like Kim picked up the Clackheaton Lib Dems from the local election and the Tories didn't net anything.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Isn't this exactly what the right of the party were doing to Corbyn for the whole time he was leader? It just seems to demonstrate that the left of the party are being more and more irrelevant and marginalised.
They were, yes. It was necessary for Labour to ever get elected again.
What the hard left are doing now may be equivalent in terms of disloyalty but unlike the anti-Corbyn effort, it is just making ongoing Tory govt without effective scrutiny and opposition more likely.
In the end the best way to stop the hard left is by voting conservative - however painful that might be. Boris is a lot more palatable than Cameron & co
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
Tories have lost two by-elections in quick succession, both in different parts of the country both for different reasons. If they cannot keep the trust and support of the home counties and cannot gain the trust of the Heavy Woollen Independents then they are already past their peak and looking set for a long slow defence of what they have. @Cocky_cockney has it right.
Erm....B&S wasn't the Conservatives seat to lose!
In three by-elections they have won one, lost one, narrowly failed to win one.
Congratulations to Kim Leadbeater for retaining Batley and Spen for labour. She seems a very pleasant and able person. It is a very strange constituency and of course she will be it's last mp as I understand it disappears in the boundary review
I did predict this yesterday and the unacceptable bile and hate spewed at her by Galloway's mob was totally unacceptable (as is any personal abuse) and I am certain many more than her majority of 323 voted for her in solidarity against Galloway
It goes without saying this is a good result for Keir Starmer and should keep him in post to fight the next GE
However, the thing that disturbs me most is that such a despicable character as Galloway can accumulate 8,264 (21.9) votes standing on his utterly divisive platform. I cannot see these voters returning to labour, or indeed for those who may have voted conservative previously, and this is labour biggest problem to resolve and I am not sure there is a resolution
If I was a conservative mp this morning I would be very angry at the perceived complacency that has taken over and of course with the narrowing of the polls, the mishandling of the Hancock resignation by Boris, and his recent mumblings, all no doubt played a part, though I doubt many voters watch PMQ's
I would just like to conclude by congratulating our own @NickPalmer for his very accurate and interesting reports from the labour camp, and award the 'dunces hat' to Jon Craig of Sky who got it completely wrong, and in the end had to eat humble pie
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Owen Jones is not an MP. Dawn Butler denied standing, even if she might have had her fingers crossed. And remember that Starmer was elected leader on a unity platform. But most of all, reigniting Labour's civil war would be a gift to the Conservatives. It would probably also accelerate Starmer's own demise for while he can beat the relatively small left, there are an awful lot on the centre and right who are deeply unimpressed by Starmer's performance thus far, notwithstanding one good PMQs.
Part of it is expectations are wholly unrealistic. Most Labour enthusiasts, despite all evidence to the contrary seem to assume the country is evenly split between Tory and Labour and the better leader will win. That is not the case, there is a clear long term (i.e. over many decades) Tory lead which Labour can only beat occasionally however good or bad their leader is.
Hartlepool is the only truly Red Wall seat out of the recent by-elections.
I think that Hartlepool was in large part the Brexit party vote, but in general the "Red wall" Tory gains were in the less deprived smaller Northern towns and suburbs with significant middle class.
I hope the tide has turned on Johnsons corrupt hypocrites, no one deserves a fall more.
Partly though because the more deprived towns are where Farage picked up more votes.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
Agree on both points.
Yes, everyone knows BoJo doesn't tell the truth, but previously but hasn't mattered- or was even a positive. Partly because it's amusing, but also because it showed that he was Sticking It To The Man- look at the fans who loved his Brexit negotiation strategy, which was based on lying about keeping his promises. Lying only really matters when you are the one disadvantaged by the lie. Sad but true. That may be starting to happen.
Second reason for thinking this matters is the extent to which Johnson and Starmer are affected by momentum. Johnson is a terrible person, but tolerated because he's also a winner. We know he's a winner because he always wins. Puncture that blimp and there's not much left. Similarly Starmer's woes since January have significantly been because his internal opponents see him as a loser. So they throw stones and withdraw support to the greens. Doing that makes Labour's position worse, and the feedback loop continues. Last night's result aren't the end of either process. But they might be the middle of the end of the beginning. Or the end of the beginning of the middle. Or something.
However, up to five million doses of the version of the AZ jab in question have been administered in the UK and are identifiable by the vaccine batch numbers (4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003) included on recipients’ vaccine cards and in the Covid travel pass available via the NHS app, the Telegraph said.
Only vaccines approved by the EMA are included in the EU app, though individual member states are free to accept other vaccines if they choose.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years. .
I honestly don't think people do realise it. I had an argument with my aforementioned diehard tory friend about this very thing this past week. When I suggested he was a liar she got really angry, affronted even. I spoke about the re-writing of history over Hancock and she seemed genuinely surprised. By the end of the conversation I think she was beginning to see her beloved Boris in a slightly different light.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
I get the magician's illusion bit. Its just that Alex being a twice sacked liar is a matter of record and it isn't even recent.
What is this obsession with Boris’s chosen name? It’s just discourteous.
Alex is the name his family / close friends use. Boris is his work name
It’s the same as my aunt using her maiden name at work and her married name at home. Or the fact my family uses Charlie while professionally I’m Charles.
Must be very fun listening to some PBers out with their mates
“NO, HIS NAME IS REG DWIGHT, don’t call him Elton, it’s not his real name and you’re falling into his trap and doing what he wants - HIS MUM CALLS HIM REG THEREFORE SO SHOULD WE”
Happy to revert to Liar, Clown or Shagger if you want.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Boris isn't racist. He's certainly the others.
The Workers Party ticks all three boxes.
Picanninies with Watermelon Smiles
Its clear from context he was attacking others racism. Like the language in the Germans Faulty Towers episode. Not appropriate today but the meaning at the time was clear.
Looks like labours ground game won it for them. Tory campaign was, as we have seen recently, poor. Bad result for the tories especially with GG looking like he scooped up a lot of Muslim votes. And I picked it. From ages ago, and consistently at that. That is the biggest shock of the night for me.
Let's not get too excited. A victory for Labour is still a victory for capitalism, imperialism and environmental ruin. The difference between them and the tories is nuance rather than substance.
In conclusion, the Labour leadership should treat this as a massive kick up the backside - not a glorious triumphant vindication - and offer a genuinely inspiring vision which unites the party and which is currently just not there. Disaster awaits otherwise - it's up to them. 6:46 AM · Jul 2, 2021·"
He really is shit. Had Labour lost it would all have been the fault of Starmer. As Labour won its got nothing to do with Starmer and actually thanks to Starmer it was almost a loss actually.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
I think the amusing scoundrel vote in B&S went elsewhere...
A few thoughts: 1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour. 2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work. 3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out 4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
Gorgeous got a great deal closer than I thought he would. I am not sure winning was his intention anyway. However he got Ryan Stephenson to within a cigarette paper of becoming the MP. He remains a very serious threat to Labour as aJohnson shill in any future by elections, particularly those with a Muslim contingent.
In Downing Street this morning, Boris Johnson will be wondering if 323 votes in Batley and Spen would have gone the other way if Matt Hancock was sacked immediately.
Labour MP: "Let’s hope those in shadow cabinet pack it in now. Perhaps they could focus on the day job now, taking on the Tories. A novel idea for some of them."
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Boris isn't racist. He's certainly the others.
The Workers Party ticks all three boxes.
Picanninies with Watermelon Smiles
A reference to how the “great white elite” on the NGO gravy train views those they are supposed to be there to help
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Are you saying Galloway isn’t those things?
He isn't a party though. Are you saying that Alex isn't those things...?
Well, if I’m honest I was winding Murali up.
Although it’s not as much fun as winding up Corbynistas over Corbyn being a lying racist fornicator.
Comments
Could Hodges...be right?
In conclusion, the Labour leadership should treat this as a massive kick up the backside - not a glorious triumphant vindication - and offer a genuinely inspiring vision which unites the party and which is currently just not there. Disaster awaits otherwise - it's up to them.
6:46 AM · Jul 2, 2021·"
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1410837385244467200
What really encourages me is that people voted against the homophobic campaign, and for a good local woman. That is one thing for Labour to take away. Good local candidates and not to be afraid of being who they are.
The Workers Party ticks all three boxes.
Also (and I know it doesn’t work like this, but the electorate has collectively played a blinder)
C&A - Tories: don’t get cocky
B&S - But we are still willing to listen to you if you work a bit harder
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/2gvE3Pa8Gv/Boris_Johnson_battles
I think we misread the switch in focus - it wasn’t because he had the Muslim vote locked, but because he wasn’t getting traction with them
For a mid-term Government supposedly led by a clown - I think they'd take that.
Rather, this confirms the three different voter groups each national party appeals to.
What the hard left are doing now may be equivalent in terms of disloyalty but unlike the anti-Corbyn effort, it is just making ongoing Tory govt without effective scrutiny and opposition more likely.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1410842919326650368?s=20
“NO, HIS NAME IS REG DWIGHT, don’t call him Elton, it’s not his real name and you’re falling into his trap and doing what he wants - HIS MUM CALLS HIM REG THEREFORE SO SHOULD WE”
Although it’s not as much fun as winding up Corbynistas over Corbyn being a lying racist fornicator.
(Nobody would suggest is Corbyn is fat though.)
And yet, more than ten years later people still take him seriously?
I hope the tide has turned on Johnsons corrupt hypocrites, no one deserves a fall more.
In a gen election Hartlepool won’t be a Tory landslide, the Libs won’t come close in Chesham, Batley won’t be neck and neck with George Galloway causing mayhem. That’s by-elections though, they produce ‘freak’ results.
In contrast Airdrie and Shotts is pretty much exactly what we’d expect at any time over the past 5 years.
In three by-elections they have won one, lost one, narrowly failed to win one.
Congratulations to Kim Leadbeater for retaining Batley and Spen for labour. She seems a very pleasant and able person. It is a very strange constituency and of course she will be it's last mp as I understand it disappears in the boundary review
I did predict this yesterday and the unacceptable bile and hate spewed at her by Galloway's mob was totally unacceptable (as is any personal abuse) and I am certain many more than her majority of 323 voted for her in solidarity against Galloway
It goes without saying this is a good result for Keir Starmer and should keep him in post to fight the next GE
However, the thing that disturbs me most is that such a despicable character as Galloway can accumulate 8,264 (21.9) votes standing on his utterly divisive platform. I cannot see these voters returning to labour, or indeed for those who may have voted conservative previously, and this is labour biggest problem to resolve and I am not sure there is a resolution
If I was a conservative mp this morning I would be very angry at the perceived complacency that has taken over and of course with the narrowing of the polls, the mishandling of the Hancock resignation by Boris, and his recent mumblings, all no doubt played a part, though I doubt many voters watch PMQ's
I would just like to conclude by congratulating our own @NickPalmer for his very accurate and interesting reports from the labour camp, and award the 'dunces hat' to Jon Craig of Sky who got it completely wrong, and in the end had to eat humble pie
Yes, everyone knows BoJo doesn't tell the truth, but previously but hasn't mattered- or was even a positive. Partly because it's amusing, but also because it showed that he was Sticking It To The Man- look at the fans who loved his Brexit negotiation strategy, which was based on lying about keeping his promises.
Lying only really matters when you are the one disadvantaged by the lie. Sad but true. That may be starting to happen.
Second reason for thinking this matters is the extent to which Johnson and Starmer are affected by momentum. Johnson is a terrible person, but tolerated because he's also a winner. We know he's a winner because he always wins. Puncture that blimp and there's not much left.
Similarly Starmer's woes since January have significantly been because his internal opponents see him as a loser. So they throw stones and withdraw support to the greens. Doing that makes Labour's position worse, and the feedback loop continues. Last night's result aren't the end of either process. But they might be the middle of the end of the beginning. Or the end of the beginning of the middle. Or something.
Only vaccines approved by the EMA are included in the EU app, though individual member states are free to accept other vaccines if they choose.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-01/covid-up-to-five-million-brits-may-be-unable-to-visit-europe-as-eu-does-not-recognise-india-produced-az-jabs
Guess who got an Indian produced dose?
Alex is the name his family / close friends use. Boris is his work name
It’s the same as my aunt using her maiden name at work and her married name at home. Or the fact my family uses Charlie while professionally I’m Charles.
And I picked it. From ages ago, and consistently at that. That is the biggest shock of the night for me.
Looks like the opinion poll, and a few on here, vastly underestimated GG
Hats off to George!
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1410848867151663112?s=20
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1410849656117080066?s=20
Well done Kim!