Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.
How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
If this were a by-election in a Tory seat, in The Hague/IDS years, I doubt if anyone would be hailing a 300 majority as a great result.
And there you go ... exactly what I said about applying the politics of 20 years ago to today.
We all know that the political map has been torn up. This type of seat is the new tory heartland and they failed to win it.
We're also in the middle of a pandemic with all manner of attendant issues, including but not limited to a vaccine bounce.
The Tory heartland that ,,,,, they failed to win in 2019.
Given how bad Labour's position is right now, they can be relieved that they held on. But, this is not the kind of mid-term result that parties achieve when they're heading for a win at the next election. And, in all the council by-elections tonight, there were swings against Labour.
Oh, the other thing that I've heard people talking about including a diehard Conservative friend of mine is about this 'One Rule for Them' issue.
She mentioned the fact that 'rich businessmen', UEFA officials, and G7 leaders are all able to travel however they want whilst the rest of us are stuck at home.
A few thoughts: 1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour. 2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work. 3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out 4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
What I feel this underlines is that the Tory advance in the red wall has topped out; talk of further advances and a complete Labour collapse there is misplaced. The Tories are essentially on the defensive in the North now (as indeed they are in the south).
If not the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning, as someone once said.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
One important difference at PMQs is that instead of asking about Boris's initial support for Hancock, and then, as is his usual wont, leaving the question hanging, Starmer piled in with a list of other misbehaving ministers still in office.
Oh, the other thing that I've heard people talking about including a diehard Conservative friend of mine is about this 'One Rule for Them' issue.
She mentioned the fact that 'rich businessmen', UEFA officials, and G7 leaders are all able to travel however they want whilst the rest of us are stuck at home.
It hasn't gone down well.
I’m thoroughly appalled at the government’s actions these last few weeks (feels different to early May and the locals).
Thankfully my Tory MP voted against the continuation of lockdown, so that’s something.
But these are by-elections. The circumstances of the general election will be very different. And we’ll get to hear what Starmer really thinks.
Whatever the circumstances Starmers's just won two stunning by-elections. The momentum's with him. He's got to start laying into the trully horrible Johnson starting today. He wont get a better opening. Today is year zero. We can start judging SKS from now. I'm optimistic.
Whatever the circumstances Starmers's just won two stunning by-elections. The momentum's with him. He's got to start laying into the trully horrible Johnson now. He wont get a better opening. Today is year zero. We can start judging SKS from now. I'm optimistic.
A few thoughts: 1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour. 2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work. 3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out 4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
Re point 3, the last thing Labour needs is civil war, and in any case the hard left is too small to mount a challenge. It may be that Starmer should do the opposite and mend fences with Angela Rayner and restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn. As we are quoting Churchill this morning: In Victory: Magnanimity. In Peace: Good Will.
Meanwhile in more good news for the Liar, that council result in Cobham is interesting. LD gain from Con on an 18.5% swing. First LD councillor on the town for donkeys, and as it's the same swing as in the constituency (Esher and Walton) the LD threat to the Tory south very much alive and well
What I feel this underlines is that the Tory advance in the red wall has topped out; talk of further advances and a complete Labour collapse there is misplaced. The Tories are essentially on the defensive in the North now (as indeed they are in the south).
If not the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning, as someone once said.
This isn't a Red Wall seat. It contains some leafy middle-class areas. In fact it was probably those areas that provided Labour with the votes they needed to win this by-election.
What I feel this underlines is that the Tory advance in the red wall has topped out; talk of further advances and a complete Labour collapse there is misplaced. The Tories are essentially on the defensive in the North now (as indeed they are in the south).
If not the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning, as someone once said.
I wouldn’t be so sure. There is an east-west divide. It gets harder for the Tories the further west you go (arguably Atherton was the biggest scalp for the Tories). There is still scope for further Tory gains to the east of the hills.
Meanwhile in more good news for the Liar, that council result in Cobham is interesting. LD gain from Con on an 18.5% swing. First LD councillor on the town for donkeys, and as it's the same swing as in the constituency (Esher and Walton) the LD threat to the Tory south very much alive and well
This post may be lost in the melee but it could contain the key to the next General Election. South-west London and Surrey may prove crucial next time.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
It's not even a matter for debate. Alex Johnson (let's use his given name not the character he plays) is a proven liar. Proven to have made up quotes when a hack at the Telegraph and sacked for bringing the paper into disrepute. Proven to have have been having an affair and lied about it so sacked by Michael Howard.
The man cannot tell the truth any more than he can stop dropping his keks and shagging the latest bit of skirt. Let's not have this "who knew" nonsense, everyone knew.
Meanwhile in more good news for the Liar, that council result in Cobham is interesting. LD gain from Con on an 18.5% swing. First LD councillor on the town for donkeys, and as it's the same swing as in the constituency (Esher and Walton) the LD threat to the Tory south very much alive and well
The Tories got big swings in their favour in most of the other council by-elections last night.
Meanwhile in more good news for the Liar, that council result in Cobham is interesting. LD gain from Con on an 18.5% swing. First LD councillor on the town for donkeys, and as it's the same swing as in the constituency (Esher and Walton) the LD threat to the Tory south very much alive and well
This post may be lost in the melee but it could contain the key to the next General Election. South-west London and Surrey may prove crucial next time.
Getting excited about Westminster by-election results I can just about understand, though I don’t think either of the last two results were especially remarkable.
But local by-elections! It was Lib Dem gains in such elections that probably convinced Jo Swinson that she could become PM.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years. .
I honestly don't think people do realise it. I had an argument with my aforementioned diehard tory friend about this very thing this past week. When I suggested he was a liar she got really angry, affronted even. I spoke about the re-writing of history over Hancock and she seemed genuinely surprised. By the end of the conversation I think she was beginning to see her beloved Boris in a slightly different light.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
A few thoughts: 1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour. 2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work. 3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out 4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
Re point 3, the last thing Labour needs is civil war, and in any case the hard left is too small to mount a challenge. It may be that Starmer should do the opposite and mend fences with Angela Rayner and restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn. As we are quoting Churchill this morning: In Victory: Magnanimity. In Peace: Good Will.
The civil war is already happening. People will not vote for the hard left or a party being dragged along by it. Yes he can leave them on place as a rump as Blair did but that means having authority.
A few scalps are needed. One wing of the party is actively agitating for the party to lose. That isn't sustainable. Looks like the Tories have already peaked in terms of red wall expansion so Labour need to Knuckle down and focus. Hard to do that when the loonies are trying to make you lose
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
It's not even a matter for debate. Alex Johnson (let's use his given name not the character he plays) is a proven liar. Proven to have made up quotes when a hack at the Telegraph and sacked for bringing the paper into disrepute. Proven to have have been having an affair and lied about it so sacked by Michael Howard.
The man cannot tell the truth any more than he can stop dropping his keks and shagging the latest bit of skirt. Let's not have this "who knew" nonsense, everyone knew.
Not disagreeing with the main thrust, but it was the Times not the Telegraph.
He was accused of falsifying quotes at the Telegraph as well but nothing was proved and he wasn’t fired, although that’s probably because what he was writing matched the editorial line.
What I feel this underlines is that the Tory advance in the red wall has topped out; talk of further advances and a complete Labour collapse there is misplaced. The Tories are essentially on the defensive in the North now (as indeed they are in the south).
If not the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning, as someone once said.
I wouldn’t be so sure. There is an east-west divide. It gets harder for the Tories the further west you go (arguably Atherton was the biggest scalp for the Tories). There is still scope for further Tory gains to the east of the hills.
Still half asleep. I meant Leigh not Atherton (which is next door).
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Just to say thanks Mike (and others) for an incredible political betting website. After reading through the comments last night I backed Labour to win. Also, backed conservative share of the vote 30-35% at 15 on betfair, which looked unbelievably good given that the conservative share of the vote in 2019 was 36%.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years. .
I honestly don't think people do realise it. I had an argument with my aforementioned diehard tory friend about this very thing this past week. When I suggested he was a liar she got really angry, affronted even. I spoke about the re-writing of history over Hancock and she seemed genuinely surprised. By the end of the conversation I think she was beginning to see her beloved Boris in a slightly different light.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
There are different levels of deception and lies.
1. Everyone knows he lies in the way "all" politicians lie. This does not cut through. 2. Not everyone knows his whole public persona is an act.
Also remember, like other charlatans he is successful because people absolutely love being told what they want to hear, especially if it is being said by someone more powerful than them.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years. .
I honestly don't think people do realise it. I had an argument with my aforementioned diehard tory friend about this very thing this past week. When I suggested he was a liar she got really angry, affronted even. I spoke about the re-writing of history over Hancock and she seemed genuinely surprised. By the end of the conversation I think she was beginning to see her beloved Boris in a slightly different light.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
There are different levels of deception and lies.
1. Everyone knows he lies in the way "all" politicians lie. This does not cut through. 2. Not everyone knows his whole public persona is an act.
Also remember, like other charlatans he is successful because people absolutely love being told what they want to hear, especially if it is being said by someone more powerful than them.
Just to say thanks Mike (and others) for an incredible political betting website. After reading through the comments last night I backed Labour to win. Also, backed conservative share of the vote 30-35% at 15 on betfair, which looked unbelievably good given that the conservative share of the vote in 2019 was 36%.
Mike is in a purple patch.
I took the C&A and amongst other things had a lovely day at Wimbledon this week as a result.
When he mentions 'value' again it's best not to ridicule him!!!
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years. .
I honestly don't think people do realise it. I had an argument with my aforementioned diehard tory friend about this very thing this past week. When I suggested he was a liar she got really angry, affronted even. I spoke about the re-writing of history over Hancock and she seemed genuinely surprised. By the end of the conversation I think she was beginning to see her beloved Boris in a slightly different light.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
I get the magician's illusion bit. Its just that Alex being a twice sacked liar is a matter of record and it isn't even recent.
Just to say thanks Mike (and others) for an incredible political betting website. After reading through the comments last night I backed Labour to win. Also, backed conservative share of the vote 30-35% at 15 on betfair, which looked unbelievably good given that the conservative share of the vote in 2019 was 36%.
Mike is in a purple patch.
I took the C&A and amongst other things had a lovely day at Wimbledon this week as a result.
When he mentions 'value' again it's best not to ridicule him!!!
I know. I thought the C&A tip was wishful thinking - my mistake. Worth also congratulating labour and their candidate for putting up a decent fight, it is good to have a functioning opposition.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
A few thoughts: 1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour. 2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work. 3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out 4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
Re point 3, the last thing Labour needs is civil war, and in any case the hard left is too small to mount a challenge. It may be that Starmer should do the opposite and mend fences with Angela Rayner and restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn. As we are quoting Churchill this morning: In Victory: Magnanimity. In Peace: Good Will.
Yes to mending fences with Rayner. No to restoring the whip to Corbyn.
Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.
How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
Come on, please leave the party spin stuff to other sites.
You know as well as I do and everyone else on this board that, under the circumstances, this is a stunning result for Labour. As Sky News are reporting it.
Given the Red Wall issues, George Galloway's involvement, the attacks on Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives should have won this and probably would have done so six weeks ago.
I do wish people would stop applying the politics of twenty years ago to those of today. Normal rules up north don't apply anymore. But as Chesham & Amersham showed, they may also not apply down south.
You're absolutely right. There are all sorts of spin offs from this result. Not least disproving the well worn Head and Shoulders line 'You Don't Get a Second Chance to Make a First Impression' . This result gives Starmer the chance to do just that.
+£800 and a highly instructive lesson for me on learning from discussion here in the last few days of run-up, and on which posters have powerful judgement. A big thank you to Mike in particular.
Extremely effective organisation by Labour, winning on a turnout of "only" 48% with GG surprisingly seeming to have won practically the entire Muslim vote, with 21%. (At least this is assuming turnout was the same among Muslims and non-Muslims, which may not be so.) I guess this came down to Labour versus GG and Labour got its vote out to the max and may also have won a few % directly from the Tories for "Stop Gorgeous" reasons.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
Backed Labour a little at 3.8. Mildly surprised they won but not too much. With a margin that tight, Hancock might've swung it.
I made the mistake of backing Labour too early, rather than giving PB Tories enough time to get worked up about the by-election being an impending Tory win so pushing Labour’s odds out further.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
I've seen quite a bit of Rachel and Stanley on TV and I don't recall them ever having a "community charge" moment.
Not saying you're wrong, but his family of very good actors if it is the case. Switching between two names would be quite tricky, I'd have thought.
Minister tells me:"Whilst a complex local picture, Labour did everything they could to hand us the seat, but again our ground operation failed to take advantage. CCHQ again too clever for its own good, whilst Labour managed to scrabble over the line. Massively missed opportunity" https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1410836704198602753
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
Boris is Boris, if that is what he wants to be called. Likewise Keir Starmer is Keir and not Keith or Kevin or Gordon Brittas or any of the other variants we are expected to recall.
Glad I got some kip. Starmer will be delighted, his position is strengthened slightly and he should last until Christmas at least. The worry is if Palestine remains an issue then can Labour ever rely on the Muslim vote again or is this just a one off?
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
He only gets to run in one seat at a general election.
We’ve probably not heard the last of him, but a period of irrelevance for him, versus his switching the result, is something any non sociopath ought to welcome.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Momentum is everything. It's ALL with Labour however you try to disseminate.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
For it to be a blip, the government need to stop scoring massive own goals like Cummings and Hancock.
If we get some of those a couple of times a year through to the next election it will have an impact. If they can run an efficient, effective, cohesive cabinet team that gets on with it, then it will be a blip. I shall leave it to the reader which is more likely under the current leadership.
They still have a big majority though, and the Brexit flag to rally around so should end up largest party regardless.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Many thanks for the posts last night after a long day, which led to me, and probably others, topping up.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Thanks for your reports Nick, and well done on the result. Nice to see that Labour are not giving up!
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Hiding in a fridge, for example...
Yeah, we shouldn’t have our candidates that chilled out.
Boris is Boris, if that is what he wants to be called.
It's not though.
He wants his family and friends to call him Alex.
He only wants voters to call him something else.
You want to be called Scott rather than Brexit crybaby so I’ll call you Scott.
No reason to have an aneurysm about a name, We’ll call him Boris, We’ll call Anthony Blair ‘Tony’. That’s just what normal people do when someone tells you the name they wish to be referred to by.
The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads.
That's the Sky News description.
Labour were written off here for all kinds of reasons that you might do well to study.
I'm a Telegraph reader pro-libertarian and certainly not a typical 'Labour lot'.
Yes, Sky News are right. This is a stunning result for Labour. Under the circumstances.
It was both a desperately narrow and a convincing win at the same time.
We can see how desperate the win was from how low Labour had to stoop with some of its leaflets and with the way Labour had to throw its activists into GOTV (five knockups and counting, according to our man on the spot) like recruits being ferried across the river to defend Stalingrad.
Nevertheless without Galloway it looks pretty clear that the Tories wouldn't have come close to presenting a significant challenge. Which is the more important takeaway for the future.
Whatever the circumstances Starmers's just won two stunning by-elections. The momentum's with him. He's got to start laying into the trully horrible Johnson starting today. He wont get a better opening. Today is year zero. We can start judging SKS from now. I'm optimistic.
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Great commentary throughout Nick thanks v much. Like many on here I backed Lab and your updates were hugely useful in that regard.
I do wonder though whether throwing the kitchen sink at a constituency is sustainable at a GE (cf LDs in C&A).
Went to bed as it sounded as though the count would go on forever, but woke early to see the outcome, which is great. Some thoughts:
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
Nick, most of us are pleased at the result. But your point 4 final sentence doesn't hold up. The left DID want Labour to lose. Not only have we had excitable idiots like Owen Jones hyping up what would happen when Labour lost, not only have we had both Rayner and (hilariously) Dawn Butler positioning themselves we had the fucking Campaign group spending the final days plotting their move after their party lost.
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Owen Jones discrediting Starmer’s leadership and praising local candidate. No surprises there. They can plot all they want but Starmer will be on course to valiantly fight the next election now IMO. I struggle to see a leadership challenge in 2021
Oh, the other thing that I've heard people talking about including a diehard Conservative friend of mine is about this 'One Rule for Them' issue.
She mentioned the fact that 'rich businessmen', UEFA officials, and G7 leaders are all able to travel however they want whilst the rest of us are stuck at home.
It hasn't gone down well.
I disagree with your other statements but this one is hard to shift, and why the Tories need to work hard against it. Hancock plays into this too where his weakness of the last year was fanfared rather than the vaccine rollout of recent months.
I disagree about this being a heartland target for a by election. If we know anything about by elections it is that sitting governments almost never gain seats. That the Tories were in with a chance should have been a surprise. On reflection it was unwise to not manage expectations, and also to try and let Galloway win it for them.
Labour have done really well. I could see the value in the bet this time and they have a party machine to get the job done. Well done to SKS for choosing the right candidate who brought out the bully in Galloway.
Thank goodness Galloway lost, and didn't achieve his aim of smashing SKS. I cannot stand his Muslim grievance style of politics, nor him personally. For me this is the best kind of result - SKS still in place and no some fruit loop from the labour left, Tory government checked, and Galloway and his race politics smashed.
The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads.
That's the Sky News description.
Labour were written off here for all kinds of reasons that you might do well to study.
I'm a Telegraph reader pro-libertarian and certainly not a typical 'Labour lot'.
Yes, Sky News are right. This is a stunning result for Labour. Under the circumstances.
It was both a desperately narrow and a convincing win at the same time.
We can see how desperate the win was from how low Labour had to stoop with some of its leaflets and with the way Labour had to throw its activists into GOTV (five knockups and counting, according to our man on the spot) like recruits being ferried across the river to defend Stalingrad.
Nevertheless without Galloway it looks pretty clear that the Tories wouldn't have come close to presenting a significant challenge. Which is the more important takeaway for the future.
Can I reiterate - assuming Galloway’s voters would all otherwise have voted Labour.
Just as assumptions were made about the HWI going Tory, which they clearly haven’t.
This is a good hold for Labour, don’t get me wrong, and as somebody who increasingly thinks of himself as a soft Labour voter I’m pleased about it. But there are still awkward questions for the party to answer. Why are their former voters not trending back to them now Brexit is ‘done?’ How do you keep a coalition of slightly crazy urban Woke voters and socially conservative northern/Muslim voters together? Where is the maximum impact for campaigning, given the enormous churn in votes that still seems to be going on?
This doesn’t really answer those questions. What it does is give Labour breathing space to start looking for the answers.
Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
Sir Keir did well at PMQ's.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Surely the point where people realised he was a liar was when he was sacked for lying. Which has happened twice and not even recently.
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Yes, I’m struggling to understand this suggestion that people have only just realised he’s a liar. That’s been obvious for 35 years.
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
The difference is that this time a large number of voters felt it personally; he’s no longer an amusing scoundrel for quite a few.
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win. It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
Tories have lost two by-elections in quick succession, both in different parts of the country both for different reasons. If they cannot keep the trust and support of the home counties and cannot gain the trust of the Heavy Woollen Independents then they are already past their peak and looking set for a long slow defence of what they have. @Cocky_cockney has it right.
Labour clings on in by-election 11 years into Tory-led government is a fascinating insight into modern political expectations.
As I said yesterday Labour had easily won the expectations management game.
It looks like you PB Tories need to try a little harder to get on message in that game?
I expected (and bet on) Labour to win Hartlepool, but had to eat humble pie for getting that one wrong.
So I didn't make any predictions this time, having been wrong last time I kept my silence other than saying that Labour had won the expectations management game. I was right this time.
Whatever people think of Galloway he did very well here. The result was poor for the two main parties. The PB labour lot claiming it’s a stunning result are off their heads. They scraped home and only just. Had the election been last week I suspect they’d have lost. They clearly threw everything at it this last week.
Labour won and the party led by the disingenuous racist fat fornicator lost. That's the main takeaway and it's good news.
Agreed. And they didn’t just lose, they came third.
No, the Tories came second.
I’m sure Galloway was third.
"the party led by the racist fat fornicator" is the Tories surely.
Owen Jones discrediting Starmer’s leadership and praising local candidate. No surprises there. They can plot all they want but Starmer will be on course to valiantly fight the next election now IMO. I struggle to see a leadership challenge in 2021
The critical question is whether before the next GE he can rebrand himself as the LotO who, at the beginning of his tenure, didn't vote with the government at every available opportunity.
I think what this result might show is that we are starting to see a return to normal politics. Simply sending Boris up to a seat to sit on a fork-lift and say "Did you like the jab we gave you!" isn't going to cut it any more. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304
We need to start dismantling the liar's act. His name is Al or Alex. Unlike other people who use their second name (Leonard James Callaghan, James Goron Brown etc) where the first name is discarded in favour of the second, here Alex is the man's given name. Its what friends and family call him.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
I've seen quite a bit of Rachel and Stanley on TV and I don't recall them ever having a "community charge" moment.
Not saying you're wrong, but his family of very good actors if it is the case. Switching between two names would be quite tricky, I'd have thought.
On TV is on stage. Use the stage name. You don't act in a film and use the actor's real name when talking to or about the character they are playing.
Comments
Given how bad Labour's position is right now, they can be relieved that they held on. But, this is not the kind of mid-term result that parties achieve when they're heading for a win at the next election. And, in all the council by-elections tonight, there were swings against Labour.
I think Johnson's attempt to rewrite history over the resignation may also have caused votes to slip.
Once you realise someone is a liar it's very hard to un-do.
Glad to see I have not lost my sureness of touch when it comes to tipping...
Same day as Clacton. If UKIP has tried a bit harder in Heywood and Middleton they might have won it.
Now, it’s bit different in that Galloway got as many votes as he could (bang on the mark set by Pip Moss, I think).
What I mean is that Ed Miliband could have been in big trouble had he lost Heywood and Middleton. Same for Starmer here.
She mentioned the fact that 'rich businessmen', UEFA officials, and G7 leaders are all able to travel however they want whilst the rest of us are stuck at home.
It hasn't gone down well.
1. The swing in almost every election continues to be away from Labour.
2. Tory campaign managers need to understand that to win a by-election you actually have to work.
3. The hard left spent the days in the run up to this critical by-election hoping their party would lose and plotting their move when they did. Is serkeir is to grow a pair after this he needs to get the ban hammer out
4. Rejoice that the gorgeous one lost and didn't get close
If not the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning, as someone once said.
The last 9 by-elections have all been won by women, and also 12 of the last 13.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)
People know the man is a liar and a cheat and a clown and apparently they decided that is exactly the kind of responsible government that we need...
Admittedly his lies about Hancock were especially stupid because nobody would buy them for a second, but it’s longstanding and obvious.
Thankfully my Tory MP voted against the continuation of lockdown, so that’s something.
But these are by-elections. The circumstances of the general election will be very different. And we’ll get to hear what Starmer really thinks.
He is Leave, anti woke and anti Starmer. It is very possible some a good few 2019 tory voters voted for him
The man cannot tell the truth any more than he can stop dropping his keks and shagging the latest bit of skirt. Let's not have this "who knew" nonsense, everyone knew.
But local by-elections! It was Lib Dem gains in such elections that probably convinced Jo Swinson that she could become PM.
Until you see the magician's sleight of hand you think he's for real.
A few scalps are needed. One wing of the party is actively agitating for the party to lose. That isn't sustainable. Looks like the Tories have already peaked in terms of red wall expansion so Labour need to Knuckle down and focus. Hard to do that when the loonies are trying to make you lose
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Incumbent_government_gains_seats
He was accused of falsifying quotes at the Telegraph as well but nothing was proved and he wasn’t fired, although that’s probably because what he was writing matched the editorial line.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1410827151377670144
One Labour activist: "Ask Galloway if he's eating his hat."
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1410827119324770310
1. Everyone knows he lies in the way "all" politicians lie. This does not cut through.
2. Not everyone knows his whole public persona is an act.
Also remember, like other charlatans he is successful because people absolutely love being told what they want to hear, especially if it is being said by someone more powerful than them.
I took the C&A and amongst other things had a lovely day at Wimbledon this week as a result.
When he mentions 'value' again it's best not to ridicule him!!!
Labour were written off here for all kinds of reasons that you might do well to study.
I'm a Telegraph reader pro-libertarian and certainly not a typical 'Labour lot'.
Yes, Sky News are right. This is a stunning result for Labour. Under the circumstances.
Oh, wait...
Worth also congratulating labour and their candidate for putting up a decent fight, it is good to have a functioning opposition.
Backed Labour a little at 3.8. Mildly surprised they won but not too much. With a margin that tight, Hancock might've swung it.
Extremely effective organisation by Labour, winning on a turnout of "only" 48% with GG surprisingly seeming to have won practically the entire Muslim vote, with 21%. (At least this is assuming turnout was the same among Muslims and non-Muslims, which may not be so.) I guess this came down to Labour versus GG and Labour got its vote out to the max and may also have won a few % directly from the Tories for "Stop Gorgeous" reasons.
"Boris" is a stage name. Lets not indulge him any further.
1. Real credit to Kim Leadbeater. She had a very significant personal vote (largely unrelated to her sister), which is very unusual in a new candidate. With a bad candidate we'd have lost.
2. Pretty good result for Galloway - I didn't see that coming. MrEd questioned whether much of my phone canvassing was in the Muslim wards, and it wasn't. So I think we have to conclude that he did get most of the vote there. Nonetheless, credit to Quincel (and me!) for recommending the 1-4 Ladbrokes bet on Labour beating Galloway.
3. Conversely, it must have been a very good result for Labour in non-Muslim areas with some gains from the Tories, at least in terms of differential turnout. The traiditional WWC vote held up, and we were making progress in the leafier areas. Speaking of which...
4. ...very good result for Labour activists and party unity. You couldn't have improved on the ground game, and really everyone was piling in - left, right and centre. On the day we had close to 800 volunteers door-knocking and phoning, to the point that we closed down after 830 as there was literally nobody left to visit (obviously excluding those who were away, voting for other parties, or declining to vote). The idea that the left wanted Starmer to lose never took off.
4. Hancock was probably relevant, and conceivably the improvement in Starmer's ratings. The early reports of a clear Tory win will have been based on the postal votes.
5. The Tory strategy of having a stealth candidate who refused to give interviews or comment on anything proved to be a mistake. Which has to be a good thing for democracy - "vote for the party even though you know nothing about the candidate because we're not telling you" OUGHT to be a losing strategy!
I note several of our conservative brethren are rationalising / spinning like out of control high speed centrifuges about this failure - after spending the last week or so convinced it was a nailed on win.
It might be just a blip, but it doesn’t feel like it.
Not saying you're wrong, but his family of very good actors if it is the case. Switching between two names would be quite tricky, I'd have thought.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1410836704198602753
We’ve probably not heard the last of him, but a period of irrelevance for him, versus his switching the result, is something any non sociopath ought to welcome.
Writer JD Vance to run for the Ohio senate seat.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/01/politics/jd-vance-ohio-senate-race/index.html
Labour clings on in by-election 11 years into Tory-led government is a fascinating insight into modern political expectations.
As I said yesterday Labour had easily won the expectations management game.
If we get some of those a couple of times a year through to the next election it will have an impact. If they can run an efficient, effective, cohesive cabinet team that gets on with it, then it will be a blip. I shall leave it to the reader which is more likely under the current leadership.
They still have a big majority though, and the Brexit flag to rally around so should end up largest party regardless.
He wants his family and friends to call him Alex.
He only wants voters to call him something else.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1410838123253309443
No reason to have an aneurysm about a name, We’ll call him Boris, We’ll call Anthony Blair ‘Tony’. That’s just what normal people do when someone tells you the name they wish to be referred to by.
We can see how desperate the win was from how low Labour had to stoop with some of its leaflets and with the way Labour had to throw its activists into GOTV (five knockups and counting, according to our man on the spot) like recruits being ferried across the river to defend Stalingrad.
Nevertheless without Galloway it looks pretty clear that the Tories wouldn't have come close to presenting a significant challenge. Which is the more important takeaway for the future.
I do wonder though whether throwing the kitchen sink at a constituency is sustainable at a GE (cf LDs in C&A).
Starmer can't tolerate this. There needs to be a put up or shut up moment. Tell Rayner that she either pledges fealty or she gets publicly sacked. Withdraw the whip from a few other lunatics. If you want your own party to lose then you are bringing said party into disrepute. Ban Hammer.
I struggle to see a leadership challenge in 2021
Labour extraordinarily lucky to win this, but Tory voters stayed at home.
I don’t know what the Tories are playing at. No GOTV? And candidate was so invisible I couldn’t tell you his name.
I disagree about this being a heartland target for a by election. If we know anything about by elections it is that sitting governments almost never gain seats. That the Tories were in with a chance should have been a surprise. On reflection it was unwise to not manage expectations, and also to try and let Galloway win it for them.
Labour have done really well. I could see the value in the bet this time and they have a party machine to get the job done. Well done to SKS for choosing the right candidate who brought out the bully in Galloway.
Thank goodness Galloway lost, and didn't achieve his aim of smashing SKS. I cannot stand his Muslim grievance style of politics, nor him personally. For me this is the best kind of result - SKS still in place and no some fruit loop from the labour left, Tory government checked, and Galloway and his race politics smashed.
Just as assumptions were made about the HWI going Tory, which they clearly haven’t.
This is a good hold for Labour, don’t get me wrong, and as somebody who increasingly thinks of himself as a soft Labour voter I’m pleased about it. But there are still awkward questions for the party to answer. Why are their former voters not trending back to them now Brexit is ‘done?’ How do you keep a coalition of slightly crazy urban Woke voters and socially conservative northern/Muslim voters together? Where is the maximum impact for campaigning, given the enormous churn in votes that still seems to be going on?
This doesn’t really answer those questions. What it does is give Labour breathing space to start looking for the answers.
So I didn't make any predictions this time, having been wrong last time I kept my silence other than saying that Labour had won the expectations management game. I was right this time.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1410840685956194304