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The Batley election looks very tight and there’s talk of a recount – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,153
edited July 2021 in General
The Batley election looks very tight and there’s talk of a recount – politicalbetting.com

Looking at the piles of votes on the tables … it's *ridiculously close* Someone from the Tory camp just used the words "recount territory". https://t.co/7UoSHhsJkK

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897

    Tom ItsComingHomewood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    39s
    “I’m not going to say the R word”

    Says Labour’s point man - referencing the dreaded recount that is suddenly on everyone’s lips.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    edited July 2021
    Meanwhile, the Daily Star reports on Le [sic] Close Encounters between aliens and the French air force.

    UFOs in ‘dogfights with military jets above France’ in 600 sightings, shock report says
    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/ufos-dogfights-military-jets-above-24442061
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    Labour favourites!
    Lab 1.5
    Con 2
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    This seat has a history of close results when the Tories are in contention.

    1983: Con maj = 870
    1987: Con maj = 1,362
    1992: Con maj = 1,408
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    Tom ItsComingHomewood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    6m
    I think Labour may have held this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.

    I don't think that was based on anything at all
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Betfair suggests it's a complete 50:50 toss-up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    MikeSmithson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.

    I don't think that was based on anything at all
    Clearly.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Someone lays £500 against Con at 1.8
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Looks like my bet on Labour stands a chance of paying off. Plus the excellent tip from Nick, backing Labour to beat Galloway for relatively free money.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    I don't know what the point of the news channels are....Sky News still saying "Tories odds on with the bookies"...erhhhh.....can't anybody in their production team use the Betfair website?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    MikeL said:

    Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

    Which is surprising.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    edited July 2021

    David Herdson
    @DavidHerdson
    This means no recount in #BatleyAndSpen.

    Majority (for whoever) at least 500 then.
    Quote Tweet
    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    · 7m
    Declaration expected "soon"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

    Which is surprising.
    It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    Conservatives 990 to lay. Someone thinks it is all over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    edited July 2021
    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

    Which is surprising.
    It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.
    If we’re talking a majority of hundreds, it quite possibly was Hancock wot won it for Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    IanB2 said:

    Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500

    Normally you have a recount for a 500 majority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897
    Betfair seem to think Labour have it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,897

    Tom ItsComingHomewood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    53s
    Checking bundles are accurately placed against the candidates names. Hearing the victory margin is less than 1000 votes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    BBC now suggesting a delay for a bundle check
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Peak Boris was May 25th.

    The long slide is underway.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

    Which is surprising.
    It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.
    If we’re talking a majority of hundreds, it quite possibly was Hancock wot won it for Labour.
    Keir Starmer just texted to say it was his PMQs wot won it (unless the Tories have won).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: Con asked for bundle check
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500

    Normally you have a recount for a 500 majority.
    It’s up to the RO, but that’s a higher threshold for a full recount than I would expect
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

    The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    edited July 2021
    The Tory prospects appear to hang on the slim chance of a gross error in forming and counting the bundles.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    There really ought to be a full recount for such an important by-election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    Labour 1.01
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited July 2021
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

    The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party

    This is a by-election Labour should be winning LD style with a massively increased majority. It represents a stay of execution which may or may not in the longer term be a good thing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.

    Is this a good time to mention my theory about Heavy Woollens returning to Labour? (Legendary modesty notwithstanding.)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: Bundle checks still underway on at least two different tables.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 546
    Thanks OGH for your briiliant tip once again. Another nice win.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

    Philip Cowley
    @philipjcowley
    · 8 Apr
    If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    If Labour have held this then whatever gloss is put on it by the tories, and they have every right to do so, there will still be a large dollop of doubt creeping in about Boris. I don't think his manifestly lying about Hancock's resignation has gone down well. Once you realise someone is a born liar it's very difficult to un-do.

    It's perfectly possible that at the next General Election the tories could lose both north and south.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

    The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party

    I really don't see what Labour's far left has to do with the price of fish.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    There really ought to be a full recount for such an important by-election.

    The RO should consider solely the likelihood that the result is wrong. With bundles of fifty voters that have been checked for gross error, a full recount isn’t going to shift the result by ten bundles and the right decision would be to refuse a recount request. Most full recounts typically shift the result by a small handful of votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: Another bundle check starting now.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 2021
    felix said:

    This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

    Philip Cowley
    @philipjcowley
    · 8 Apr
    If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

    The gloss to which I referred a moment ago.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    Another bundle check.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    edited July 2021
    MikeL said:

    Craig: Another bundle check starting now.

    They are just spinning it out to meet the council's 5am prediction. :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.

    Is this a good time to mention my theory about Heavy Woollens returning to Labour? (Legendary modesty notwithstanding.)
    A very good time. Maybe if they'd stood again the result would have been different.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: Three different bundle counts still in progress.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    IanB2 said:

    BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

    I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,297
    A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,044
    felix said:

    This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

    Philip Cowley
    @philipjcowley
    · 8 Apr
    If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

    Very true.

    Galloway's bravado ringing a bit hollow now.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,583
    I think if Galloway ends up with ~2,500-3000 votes, that's roughly the difference between the Labour majority at GE2019 and a majority of 300-500 today.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    You wonder if actually better for Con to lose by whisker than win by whisker.

    Lab win guarantees Starmer stays - and it looks as if Starmer is just not strong enough to win a GE - Lab should be winning this seat by a landslide if they were on course to win GE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

    Philip Cowley
    @philipjcowley
    · 8 Apr
    If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

    Very true.

    Galloway's bravado ringing a bit hollow now.
    It would be odd if he's taken almost as many votes from the Tories as from Labour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Labour probably has about 300 bundles, so (on average) every one of them would have to have been undercounted by one for a recount to change the result. Or the Tory bundles over counted, obvs. They’ve all been double counted already so Labour’s win looks secure, unless the bundle check finds a whole batch that have been misplaced.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Sean_F said:

    A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

    These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

    Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

    This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

    The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    I know of one case where a recount changed the result: Sittingbourne & Sheppey in 2005.

    Originally the Tories were 130 vptes ahead, but a bundle of votes was found on the floor that hadn't been counted. The final result was a Labour hold by 79 votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: Second bundle count POSSIBLY requested by Lab!!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    MikeL said:

    Craig: Second bundle count POSSIBLY requested by Lab!!!

    In that case, there surely has to be a full recount.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,297
    Cocky_cockney said:

    Sean_F said:

    A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

    These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

    Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

    This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

    The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.
    How often have I heard, over the past thirty five years, that the government is past its peak and inevitably doomed, only for it to win the next election.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Jon Craig has gone the way of Adam Boulton.

    The Sky News canteen clearly does good trade.

    This isn't a nasty comment. It's just very noticeable. He looks rather puffy.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 546
    MikeL said:

    You wonder if actually better for Con to lose by whisker than win by whisker.

    Lab win guarantees Starmer stays - and it looks as if Starmer is just not strong enough to win a GE - Lab should be winning this seat by a landslide if they were on course to win GE.

    That would be true only if they had anyone better available. They probably do but no-one can quite think who it is.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Sean_F said:

    Cocky_cockney said:

    Sean_F said:

    A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

    These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

    Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

    This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

    The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.
    How often have I heard, over the past thirty five years, that the government is past its peak and inevitably doomed, only for it to win the next election.
    How many times have I heard party faithful refuse to read the writing on the wall?

    Rather a lot is the answer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

    I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.
    The Tories have the right to ask, and the RO has the right to refuse if S/he thinks the request is unreasonable.

    What normally happens is that the party asks, and if the case for a recount isn’t clear the RO offers a bundle check in the hope that this persuades the losing side to accept the inevitable.

    Electoral Commission guidance suggests that if a returning officer refuses a request for a re-count, they could allow candidates and agents to inspect bundles of ballot papers to satisfy themselves that the count is accurate.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Craig: "One source: Lab may be ahead by under 300 votes"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    edited July 2021
    We can say this:

    There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Labour also made a very good choice of candidate, unlike Hartlepool, which suggests to me that they're getting their arses in gear about tackling the tory northern attack.

    As for Keir Starmer, it's vaguely possible that a steady eddie may start to appeal after the flamboyant liar. A similar sort of phenomenon of John Major to Margaret Thatcher. Sometimes the country likes to draw breath and settle. If Johnson's bluff, bluster and blague continues to be exposed, which I think it will, then something opposite may be appealing. It's a straw clutch, I admit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    We can say this:

    There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

    Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We can say this:

    There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

    Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.
    It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We can say this:

    There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

    Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.
    It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.
    Under the circumstances of the tories all-out hope to win this seat with their northern levelling up, a Labour win here would be a stunningly good result.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We can say this:

    There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

    Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.
    It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.
    Obvious good. Look at the efficiency of the vote
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    Declaration imminent.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Another BRILLIANT call by Mike Smithson.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    edited July 2021
    CPA 102 (0.3%)
    Green Soc 104 (0.3%)
    Fransen 50 (0.1%)
    Galloway 8,264 (21.9%)
    LD 1,254 (3.3%)
    Loony 107 (0.3%)
    Heritage 33 (0.1%)
    Lab 13,296 (35.3%)
    Eng Dem 207 (0.5%)
    Soc Dem 66 (0.2%)
    Yorkshire Party 816 (2.2%)
    Rejoin EU 75 (0.2%)
    Con 12,973 (34.4%)
    UKIP 151 (0.4%)
    Freedom Alliance 100 (0.3%)
    For Britain 97 (0.3%)

    Lab maj 323 (0.9%)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Labour - 13,296
    Tory - 12,973
    Galloway - 8,264
    LD - 1,254
    Loony - 107
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,583
    So that's absolutely Galloway reducing the majority. 8k votes for him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,794
    edited July 2021
    Still 1.01 on Betfair.

    ETA all gone now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Given Galloway’s vote, Labour did well to win.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    That's a stunning result, under the circumstances.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    What a gloriously brief speech!!!!!!!!!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Majority would have been similar to GE19 had Galloway not stood? This is no Hartlepool
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    The Tories got about a third of the vote and won’t have lost many to Galloway, which normally would be a long way from winning territory.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Depressing how well Galloway did
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    "A stunning result for Labour" Jon Craig
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    Result with the parties in the right order:

    Lab 13,296 (35.3%)
    Con 12,973 (34.4%)
    Galloway 8,264 (21.9%)
    LD 1,254 (3.3%)
    Yorkshire Party 816 (2.2%)
    Eng Dem 207 (0.5%)
    UKIP 151 (0.4%)
    Loony 107 (0.3%)
    Green Soc 104 (0.3%)
    CPA 102 (0.3%)
    Freedom Alliance 100 (0.3%)
    For Britain 97 (0.3%)
    Rejoin EU 75 (0.2%)
    Soc Dem 66 (0.2%)
    Fransen 50 (0.1%)
    Heritage 33 (0.1%)

    Lab maj 323 (0.9%)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    The Tory vote dropped by 1.6%. If it had stayed the same as before at 36% they would have won.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    edited July 2021
    Galloway: "We will apply to Court for result to be set aside".

    (Referred to example of Phil Woolas).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,858
    edited July 2021
    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin. Well done Mike!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Go away Galloway.

    You're a would be alpha male, like Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    Roger said:

    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

    How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tory vote dropped by 1.6%. If it had stayed the same as before at 36% they would have won.

    On the other hand, in an election where Tories had every incentive to vote and where they were being widely tipped to win, their vote share actually fell.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

    How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
    Come on, please leave the party spin stuff to other sites.

    You know as well as I do and everyone else on this board that, under the circumstances, this is a stunning result for Labour. As Sky News are reporting it.

    Given the Red Wall issues, George Galloway's involvement, the attacks on Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives should have won this and probably would have done so six weeks ago.

    I do wish people would stop applying the politics of twenty years ago to those of today. Normal rules up north don't apply anymore. But as Chesham & Amersham showed, they may also not apply down south.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,297
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

    How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
    If this were a by-election in a Tory seat, in The Hague/IDS years, I doubt if anyone would be hailing a 300 majority as a great result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

    How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
    Because Galloway’s media circus can only trouble one seat in a GE, and the “Workers Party” without Galloway poses no electoral threat at all.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Just woken up. Having then checked PB and found that Labour won I realise that I was woken up by the sound of Owen Jones exploding in anger.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    This takes the number of women MPs to 223, the most ever.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

    How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?
    If this were a by-election in a Tory seat, in The Hague/IDS years, I doubt if anyone would be hailing a 300 majority as a great result.
    And there you go ... exactly what I said about applying the politics of 20 years ago to today.

    We all know that the political map has been torn up. This type of seat is the new tory heartland and they failed to win it.

    We're also in the middle of a pandemic with all manner of attendant issues, including but not limited to a vaccine bounce.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,510
    Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,855
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

    I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.
    So s/he did.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,160
    This feels reminiscent of Heywood and Middleton.
This discussion has been closed.