The Batley election looks very tight and there’s talk of a recount – politicalbetting.com

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The Batley election looks very tight and there’s talk of a recount – politicalbetting.com

Looking at the piles of votes on the tables … it's *ridiculously close* Someone from the Tory camp just used the words "recount territory". https://t.co/7UoSHhsJkK

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

Tom ItsComingHomewood
@tomhfh
·
39s
“I’m not going to say the R word”

Says Labour’s point man - referencing the dreaded recount that is suddenly on everyone’s lips.

DecrepiterJohnL

Meanwhile, the Daily Star reports on Le [sic] Close Encounters between aliens and the French air force.

UFOs in ‘dogfights with military jets above France’ in 600 sightings, shock report says
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/ufos-dogfights-military-jets-above-24442061

DecrepiterJohnL

Labour favourites!
Lab 1.5
Con 2

Andy_JS

This seat has a history of close results when the Tories are in contention.

1983: Con maj = 870
1987: Con maj = 1,362
1992: Con maj = 1,408

FrancisUrquhart

Tom ItsComingHomewood
@tomhfh
·
6m
I think Labour may have held this.

FrancisUrquhart

Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.

MikeSmithson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.

I don't think that was based on anything at all

MikeL

Betfair suggests it's a complete 50:50 toss-up.

FrancisUrquhart

MikeSmithson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jon Craig was clearly talking absolutely bollocks earlier...the way he was reporting it was a clear and decisive Tory win.

I don't think that was based on anything at all

Clearly.....

MikeL

Someone lays £500 against Con at 1.8

MikeL

Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

IanB2

Looks like my bet on Labour stands a chance of paying off. Plus the excellent tip from Nick, backing Labour to beat Galloway for relatively free money.

FrancisUrquhart

I don't know what the point of the news channels are....Sky News still saying "Tories odds on with the bookies"...erhhhh.....can't anybody in their production team use the Betfair website?

Andy_JS

MikeL said:

Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

Which is surprising.

FrancisUrquhart

David Herdson
@DavidHerdson
This means no recount in #BatleyAndSpen.

Majority (for whoever) at least 500 then.
Quote Tweet
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
· 7m
Declaration expected "soon"

felix

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

Which is surprising.

It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.

DecrepiterJohnL

Conservatives 990 to lay. Someone thinks it is all over.

IanB2

Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500

IanB2

felix said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

Which is surprising.

It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.

If we’re talking a majority of hundreds, it quite possibly was Hancock wot won it for Labour.

Andy_JS

IanB2 said:

Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500

Normally you have a recount for a 500 majority.

FrancisUrquhart

Betfair seem to think Labour have it.

FrancisUrquhart

Tom ItsComingHomewood
@tomhfh
·
53s
Checking bundles are accurately placed against the candidates names. Hearing the victory margin is less than 1000 votes.

IanB2

BBC now suggesting a delay for a bundle check

Cocky_cockney

Peak Boris was May 25th.

The long slide is underway.

DecrepiterJohnL

IanB2 said:

felix said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

Seems clear that Lab would have won easily without Galloway.

Which is surprising.

It will no doubt be lost in bruhaha but many of us more traditional Tories said from day 1 this would be a narrowish Labour hold. The Jo Cox factor, nature of the seat, etc. The Hancock debacle will not have helped. So disappointed but not at all surprised.

If we’re talking a majority of hundreds, it quite possibly was Hancock wot won it for Labour.

Keir Starmer just texted to say it was his PMQs wot won it (unless the Tories have won).

MikeL

Craig: Con asked for bundle check

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

IanB2 said:

Result imminent, majority said to be at least 500

Normally you have a recount for a 500 majority.

It’s up to the RO, but that’s a higher threshold for a full recount than I would expect

CorrectHorseBattery

So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party

IanB2

The Tory prospects appear to hang on the slim chance of a gross error in forming and counting the bundles.

Andy_JS

There really ought to be a full recount for such an important by-election.

DecrepiterJohnL

Labour 1.01

Andy_JS

If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.

felix

CorrectHorseBattery said:

So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party

This is a by-election Labour should be winning LD style with a massively increased majority. It represents a stay of execution which may or may not in the longer term be a good thing.

DecrepiterJohnL

Andy_JS said:

If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.

Is this a good time to mention my theory about Heavy Woollens returning to Labour? (Legendary modesty notwithstanding.)

MikeL

Craig: Bundle checks still underway on at least two different tables.

gettingbetter

Thanks OGH for your briiliant tip once again. Another nice win.

felix

This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

Philip Cowley
@philipjcowley
· 8 Apr
If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

Cocky_cockney

If Labour have held this then whatever gloss is put on it by the tories, and they have every right to do so, there will still be a large dollop of doubt creeping in about Boris. I don't think his manifestly lying about Hancock's resignation has gone down well. Once you realise someone is a born liar it's very difficult to un-do.

It's perfectly possible that at the next General Election the tories could lose both north and south.

DecrepiterJohnL

CorrectHorseBattery said:

So does Starmer get an apology now or what?

The far left cause Labour to lose, they need removing from the party

I really don't see what Labour's far left has to do with the price of fish.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

There really ought to be a full recount for such an important by-election.

The RO should consider solely the likelihood that the result is wrong. With bundles of fifty voters that have been checked for gross error, a full recount isn’t going to shift the result by ten bundles and the right decision would be to refuse a recount request. Most full recounts typically shift the result by a small handful of votes.

MikeL

Craig: Another bundle check starting now.

Cocky_cockney

felix said:

This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

Philip Cowley
@philipjcowley
· 8 Apr
If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

The gloss to which I referred a moment ago.

Andy_JS

Another bundle check.

DecrepiterJohnL

MikeL said:

Craig: Another bundle check starting now.

They are just spinning it out to meet the council's 5am prediction.

IanB2

BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

Andy_JS

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

If Labour have won at the same time as losing votes to Galloway, they must have got a positive swing in the rest of the constituency.

Is this a good time to mention my theory about Heavy Woollens returning to Labour? (Legendary modesty notwithstanding.)

A very good time. Maybe if they'd stood again the result would have been different.

MikeL

Craig: Three different bundle counts still in progress.

Andy_JS

IanB2 said:

BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.

Sean_F

A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

rcs1000

felix said:

This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

Philip Cowley
@philipjcowley
· 8 Apr
If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

Very true.

Galloway's bravado ringing a bit hollow now.

mwadams

I think if Galloway ends up with ~2,500-3000 votes, that's roughly the difference between the Labour majority at GE2019 and a majority of 300-500 today.

MikeL

You wonder if actually better for Con to lose by whisker than win by whisker.

Lab win guarantees Starmer stays - and it looks as if Starmer is just not strong enough to win a GE - Lab should be winning this seat by a landslide if they were on course to win GE.

Andy_JS

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

This from Hartlepool illustrates the point rather well.

Philip Cowley
@philipjcowley
· 8 Apr
If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

Very true.

Galloway's bravado ringing a bit hollow now.

It would be odd if he's taken almost as many votes from the Tories as from Labour.

IanB2

Labour probably has about 300 bundles, so (on average) every one of them would have to have been undercounted by one for a recount to change the result. Or the Tory bundles over counted, obvs. They’ve all been double counted already so Labour’s win looks secure, unless the bundle check finds a whole batch that have been misplaced.

Cocky_cockney

Sean_F said:

A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.

Andy_JS

I know of one case where a recount changed the result: Sittingbourne & Sheppey in 2005.

Originally the Tories were 130 vptes ahead, but a bundle of votes was found on the floor that hadn't been counted. The final result was a Labour hold by 79 votes.

MikeL

Craig: Second bundle count POSSIBLY requested by Lab!!!

Andy_JS

MikeL said:

Craig: Second bundle count POSSIBLY requested by Lab!!!

In that case, there surely has to be a full recount.

Sean_F

Cocky_cockney said:

Sean_F said:

A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.

How often have I heard, over the past thirty five years, that the government is past its peak and inevitably doomed, only for it to win the next election.

Cocky_cockney

Jon Craig has gone the way of Adam Boulton.

The Sky News canteen clearly does good trade.

This isn't a nasty comment. It's just very noticeable. He looks rather puffy.

gettingbetter

MikeL said:

You wonder if actually better for Con to lose by whisker than win by whisker.

Lab win guarantees Starmer stays - and it looks as if Starmer is just not strong enough to win a GE - Lab should be winning this seat by a landslide if they were on course to win GE.

That would be true only if they had anyone better available. They probably do but no-one can quite think who it is.

Cocky_cockney

Sean_F said:

Cocky_cockney said:

Sean_F said:

A win is a win, but Labour were winnning this seat by 6,000 to 9,000 throughout the 2010's up till the last election. It's like the Tories holding Beckenham in 1997.

These sorts of comments would normally be true but they pay no regard to the change in British politics.

Boris Johnson, led by Cummings, has gone all out to redraw the political landscape: pitching (some would say bribing) for votes in the north. The levelling up is a massive attempt to win the northern working class aka. Labour red wall vote.

This seat was definitely there for the taking but the Conservatives have passed their peak. Six weeks ago they would have won this but the lustre has come off.

The real question is whether the loss to the LibDems down south and to Labour up north is cause for tory concern. I suggest it is.

How often have I heard, over the past thirty five years, that the government is past its peak and inevitably doomed, only for it to win the next election.

How many times have I heard party faithful refuse to read the writing on the wall?

Rather a lot is the answer.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

IanB2 said:

BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.

The Tories have the right to ask, and the RO has the right to refuse if S/he thinks the request is unreasonable.

What normally happens is that the party asks, and if the case for a recount isn’t clear the RO offers a bundle check in the hope that this persuades the losing side to accept the inevitable.

Electoral Commission guidance suggests that if a returning officer refuses a request for a re-count, they could allow candidates and agents to inspect bundles of ballot papers to satisfy themselves that the count is accurate.

MikeL

Craig: "One source: Lab may be ahead by under 300 votes"

Andy_JS

We can say this:

There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

Cocky_cockney

Labour also made a very good choice of candidate, unlike Hartlepool, which suggests to me that they're getting their arses in gear about tackling the tory northern attack.

As for Keir Starmer, it's vaguely possible that a steady eddie may start to appeal after the flamboyant liar. A similar sort of phenomenon of John Major to Margaret Thatcher. Sometimes the country likes to draw breath and settle. If Johnson's bluff, bluster and blague continues to be exposed, which I think it will, then something opposite may be appealing. It's a straw clutch, I admit.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

We can say this:

There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.

Andy_JS

IanB2 said:

Andy_JS said:

We can say this:

There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.

It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.

Cocky_cockney

Andy_JS said:

IanB2 said:

Andy_JS said:

We can say this:

There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.

It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.

Under the circumstances of the tories all-out hope to win this seat with their northern levelling up, a Labour win here would be a stunningly good result.

philiph

Andy_JS said:

IanB2 said:

Andy_JS said:

We can say this:

There's been a swing of about 3% to 4% from Labour to the Conservatives since the general election in this seat.

Misleading if the real switch was Labour to Galloway, Tho.

It'll be clever if Labour manage to spin a reduction in their majority from 3,500 to 300 as a good result.

Obvious good. Look at the efficiency of the vote

Andy_JS

Declaration imminent.

Cocky_cockney

Another BRILLIANT call by Mike Smithson.

Andy_JS

CPA 102 (0.3%)
Green Soc 104 (0.3%)
Fransen 50 (0.1%)
Galloway 8,264 (21.9%)
LD 1,254 (3.3%)
Loony 107 (0.3%)
Heritage 33 (0.1%)
Lab 13,296 (35.3%)
Eng Dem 207 (0.5%)
Soc Dem 66 (0.2%)
Yorkshire Party 816 (2.2%)
Rejoin EU 75 (0.2%)
Con 12,973 (34.4%)
UKIP 151 (0.4%)
Freedom Alliance 100 (0.3%)
For Britain 97 (0.3%)

Lab maj 323 (0.9%)

IanB2

Labour - 13,296
Tory - 12,973
Galloway - 8,264
LD - 1,254
Loony - 107

mwadams

So that's absolutely Galloway reducing the majority. 8k votes for him.

DecrepiterJohnL

Still 1.01 on Betfair.

ETA all gone now.

IanB2

Given Galloway’s vote, Labour did well to win.

Cocky_cockney

That's a stunning result, under the circumstances.

Cocky_cockney

What a gloriously brief speech!!!!!!!!!

CorrectHorseBattery

Majority would have been similar to GE19 had Galloway not stood? This is no Hartlepool

IanB2

The Tories got about a third of the vote and won’t have lost many to Galloway, which normally would be a long way from winning territory.

CorrectHorseBattery

Depressing how well Galloway did

Cocky_cockney

I hope that we can all agree that it would be excellent if we never hear from George Galloway again.

Cocky_cockney

"A stunning result for Labour" Jon Craig

Andy_JS

Result with the parties in the right order:

Lab 13,296 (35.3%)
Con 12,973 (34.4%)
Galloway 8,264 (21.9%)
LD 1,254 (3.3%)
Yorkshire Party 816 (2.2%)
Eng Dem 207 (0.5%)
UKIP 151 (0.4%)
Loony 107 (0.3%)
Green Soc 104 (0.3%)
CPA 102 (0.3%)
Freedom Alliance 100 (0.3%)
For Britain 97 (0.3%)
Rejoin EU 75 (0.2%)
Soc Dem 66 (0.2%)
Fransen 50 (0.1%)
Heritage 33 (0.1%)

Lab maj 323 (0.9%)

Andy_JS

The Tory vote dropped by 1.6%. If it had stayed the same as before at 36% they would have won.

MikeL

Galloway: "We will apply to Court for result to be set aside".

(Referred to example of Phil Woolas).

Roger

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin. Well done Mike!

Toms

Go away Galloway.

You're a would be alpha male, like Trump.

Andy_JS

Roger said:

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

The Tory vote dropped by 1.6%. If it had stayed the same as before at 36% they would have won.

On the other hand, in an election where Tories had every incentive to vote and where they were being widely tipped to win, their vote share actually fell.

Cocky_cockney

Andy_JS said:

Roger said:

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?

Come on, please leave the party spin stuff to other sites.

You know as well as I do and everyone else on this board that, under the circumstances, this is a stunning result for Labour. As Sky News are reporting it.

Given the Red Wall issues, George Galloway's involvement, the attacks on Sir Keir Starmer, the Conservatives should have won this and probably would have done so six weeks ago.

I do wish people would stop applying the politics of twenty years ago to those of today. Normal rules up north don't apply anymore. But as Chesham & Amersham showed, they may also not apply down south.

Sean_F

Andy_JS said:

Roger said:

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?

If this were a by-election in a Tory seat, in The Hague/IDS years, I doubt if anyone would be hailing a 300 majority as a great result.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

Roger said:

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?

Because Galloway’s media circus can only trouble one seat in a GE, and the “Workers Party” without Galloway poses no electoral threat at all.

RochdalePioneers

Just woken up. Having then checked PB and found that Labour won I realise that I was woken up by the sound of Owen Jones exploding in anger.

Andy_JS

This takes the number of women MPs to 223, the most ever.

Cocky_cockney

Sean_F said:

Andy_JS said:

Roger said:

Fantastic result. Another small nail in the ghastly Johnson's coffin.

How is the Labour majority being reduced from 3,500 to 300 after 11 years of Tory government a good result for the opposition?

If this were a by-election in a Tory seat, in The Hague/IDS years, I doubt if anyone would be hailing a 300 majority as a great result.

And there you go ... exactly what I said about applying the politics of 20 years ago to today.

We all know that the political map has been torn up. This type of seat is the new tory heartland and they failed to win it.

We're also in the middle of a pandemic with all manner of attendant issues, including but not limited to a vaccine bounce.

Andy_JS

Matt Hancock will probably be blamed for this result by a lot of Tories.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

IanB2 said:

BBC now suggesting a margin of about 300

I've never heard of there not being a full recount when the margin is that small, although this returning officer may have different ideas.

So s/he did.

tlg86

This feels reminiscent of Heywood and Middleton.